little killbuck creek report i may 2013 - great lakes and
TRANSCRIPT
Little Killbuck Creek Report
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Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
and capabilities of the 12 ANS listed in the table above.
Based on the hydrology of the aquatic pathway and consideration of the above species, the biological evaluation found that ANS transfer between the basins by natural aquatic means could occur in either direction at Little Killbuck Creek. Accordingly, an overall pathway viability rating of “medium” was given to this pathway, which means in this case that while ANS transfer could occur it is estimated that none of the ANS would likely be able to reach the aquatic pathway within the next 20 years. However, this location does provide suitable temporary habitat, and in some cases permanent habitat, for a diversity of aquatic life including most of the species of concern that have been identified for this pathway. Both the quality and the hydrology of the streams on either side of the basin divide allow for the potential support of ANS at the Little Killbuck Creek site, and it is possible that multiple ANS could utilize this pathway to transfer between the Mississippi River and Great Lakes Basins.
There are some uncertainties associated with the rating of this location, such as the need for improved information regarding the location and distribution of the large array of ANS that have been introduced to the waters of the U.S. within both basins. The life history requirements of each of these ANS and the suitability
Executive Summary
This assessment characterizes the likelihood that a viable aquatic pathway exists at Little Killbuck Creek, Ohio, and that would allow transfer of aquatic nuisance species (ANS) between the Great Lakes and Mississippi Rivers Basins. This was accomplished by evaluating the hydrologic and hydraulic characteristics of the site based on readily available information, and conducting a species-specific assessment of the abilities of potential ANS to arrive at the pathway and cross into the adjacent basin. The potential aquatic pathway site is located in Medina County, Ohio, just north of the Wayne County boundary and approximately 30 miles (48 kilometers) southwest of Cleveland. At the north end of the location is the village of Lodi and at the southern end is the village of Burbank (in Wayne County). The land use in the vicinity of the Little Killbuck Creek location is primarily agriculture, patches of woodland, wetlands, and rural residential development.
There is a medium probability of an aquatic pathway existing at this location. The rating indicates two probabilities: there is an intermittent stream capable of maintaining a surface water connection to streams on both sides of the basin divide continuously for multiple days from a ten percent annual recurrence interval storm, and/or it is a location with a wetland spanning the basin divide which maintains significant ponds that are likely to become inter connected with streams on both sides of the basin divide from a ten percent annual recurrence interval storm. Based on site investigations, there is an existing agricultural ditch system at an active farm spanning the divide and connecting both basins from between a two and five percent annual recurrence interval event. Pumps within this drainage system are utilized to transfer water from the fields into either basin while check valves create the ability to bring water from either basin into the ditch system for irrigation. Additionally, roadside ditches in the vicinity of the pathway span the divide and allow wetland systems to become hydrologically connected during storm events.
As a result of this medium rating for the probability of an aquatic pathway existing at Little Killbuck Creek, the viability of this pathway for specific ANS of concern was then evaluated by looking at the biological requirements
Aquatic Nuisance Species of Concern
Species Common Name
Hypophthalmichthys molitrix silver carp
Hypophthalmichthys nobilis bighead carp
Mylopharyngodon piceus black carp
Channa argus northern snakehead
Alosa chrysochloris skipjack herring
Menidia beryllina inland silverside
Gasterosteus aculeatus threespine stickleback
Gymnocephalus cernua ruffe
Proterorhinus semilunaris tubenose goby
Neoergasilus japonicus parasitic copepod
Novirhabdovirus sp. Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia virus (VHSv)
Sphaerium corneum European fingernail clam
Valvata piscinalis European stream valvata
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of the habitats within the connecting streams could also be better understood with further research. There is an opportunity to develop a comprehensive monitoring plan to accurately record the movement and presence of ANS which could be slowly spreading toward this, and potentially other aquatic pathways from both basins. This would allow for more informed decision making and help to better determine species capabilities. A contributing factor to the level of uncertainty in the hydraulic characterization of the area is the lack of site specific hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, making the understanding of the frequency, duration, and magnitude (width, depth, and flow velocity) of aquatic pathway formation more difficult. Adding to this uncertainty is the scarcity of stream gages and real data on water levels at, and in proximity to, this potential pathway location. A detailed survey of elevations and modeling of this location would provide additional certainty to this rating and may also be used to help identify possible measures to reduce or eliminate the interbasin transfer of ANS at Little Killbuck Creek.
Some site specific and regional opportunities to reduce the potential for ANS transfer at the Little Killbuck Creek site include the construction of berms, reconfiguring drainage ditches, eliminating inter-basin pumping, and public education on the identification and reporting of ANS. In addition, increased field sampling and monitoring for the presence of ANS to support better informed water resource management decisions within the state and region, and ensuring that any proposed water resource projects account for how they might affect the potential for ANS movement to and across the basin divide.
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Table of Contents
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 Study Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 Summary of 2010 Preliminary Risk Characterization for Little Killbuck Creek, Ohio. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.3 Aquatic Pathway Team . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Study Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2.1 Coordination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2.2 Identification of Potential Pathways. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2.3Aquatic Nuisance Species of Concern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2.3.1 Lists of Nonindigenous Species in Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2.3.2 List of ANS of Concern for GLMRIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2.3.3 List of ANS of Specific Concern at Ohio-Erie Canal at Long Lake, Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 2.3.4 Key Attributes of Selected Organisms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 2.4 Pathway Assessment Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 2.5 Example Calculation of Overall Aquatic Pathway Viability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Aquatic Pathway Characterization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 3.1 Location . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 3.2 Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 3.3 Location Specific Surface Water Features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 3.4 Groundwater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 3.5 Aquatic Pathway Temporal Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 3.6 Probability Aquatic Pathway Exists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 3.7 Aquatic Pathway Habitat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 3.7.1 Terrestrial and Riparian Land Use. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 3.7.2 Aquatic Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 3.7.3 Water Quality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 3.7.4 Aquatic Organisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 3.8 Connecting Streams to Great Lakes and Mississippi or Ohio Rivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464 Aquatic Pathway Viability for ANS of Concern. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 4.1 Probability of ANS Being Within Either Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 4.2 Probability of ANS Surviving Transit to Aquatic Pathway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 4.2.1 Probability ANS Surviving Transit to Aquatic Pathway Through Connecting Streams . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 4.2.2 Probability ANS Survives Transit to Aquatic Pathway Through Other Means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 4.3 Probability of ANS Establishment in Proximity to the Aquatic Pathway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 4.4 Probability of ANS Spreading Across Aquatic Pathway into New Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 645 Overall Aquatic Pathway Viability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 666 Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 687 Problems and Opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 7.1 Little Killbuck Creek Problem Statements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 7.2 Little Killbuck Creek Opportunity Statements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 698 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71Appendix A - Evaluation Forms
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List of TablesTable 1: ANS of Concern for GLMRIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Table 2: ANS of Concern Threatening the Mississippi River Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Table 3: ANS of Concern Threatening the Great Lakes Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Table 4: Species of Greatest Concern at Little Killbuck Creek . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Table 5. Example Calculation of Pathway Viability for ANS Spreading from Mississippi River Basin to the
Great Lakes Basin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Table 6. Example Calculation of Pathway Viability for ANS Spreading from Great Lakes Basin to the
Mississippi River Basin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Table 7: Temperature Summary from 1971-2000 for the four stations near Little Killbuck Creek, Ohio Location. . 18Table 8: Precipitation Summary from 1971-2000 for the four stations near Little Killbuck Creek, Ohio Location. . 19Table 9: Mean Streamflow Statistics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Table 10: Peak Flow Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Table 11: Basin Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Table 12: Precipitation Frequency Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Table 13: List of Groundwater Monitoring Wells Near Little Killbuck Creek, Ohio. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Table 14: Potential Obstacles for ANS Movement Through the Muskingum River. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Table 15: Summary of Individual Probability Elements and Overall Pathway Viability Rating
(Mississippi River Basin to Great Lakes Basin) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67Table 16: Summary of Individual Probability Elements and Overall Pathway Viability Rating
(Great Lakes Basin to Mississippi River Basin). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
List of FiguresFigure 1. Potential Other Aquatic Pathway Locations Identified in the GLMRIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Figure 2. Diagram of the Derivation of the GLMRIS Focus Area 2 Aquatic Pathway Assessment Model . . . . . . . 13Figure 3. Location of Little Killbuck Creek in the Northern Section of Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Figure 4. Little Killbuck Site Location Map in Medina County, Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Figure 5. Climate Data Stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Figure 6. Waterways at Little Killbuck Creek, Ohio Location . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Figure 7. Colored Relief Map of Potential Pathway Site and Surrounding Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Figure 8. FEMA FIRM Map 243D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Figure 9. FEMA FIRM Map 244D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Figure 10. Mapped Wetlands from USFWS National Wetland Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26Figure 11. Locations Where Roads Flooded . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 12. Flooded Field West of Franchester Road . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Figure 13. Flooded Field West of Franchester Road . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Figure 14. Roadside Ditch along Franchester Road . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31Figure 15. Storm Water in Ditch along Franchester Road . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31Figure 16. Flooded Area Near Willow Road and Garden Isle Road Intersection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Figure 17. Flooded Area Near Willow Road and Garden Isle Road Intersection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Figure 18. Willow Road and Garden Isle Road after the Water Receded . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Figure 19. Willow Road and Garden Isle Road after the Water Receded . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Figure 20. Field Flooded with Water from Repp Run . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Figure 21: Wetlands West of Franchester Road Flooded . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Figure 22: Plan View and Profile Along Basin Divide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
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Figure 23: Cross Sections Near Franchester Road . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Figure 24: Cross Sections Near Willow and Graden Isle Roads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Figure 25: Storm Water at Intersection of Willow Road and Garden Isle Road . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39Figure 26. Groundwater Well Locations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Figure 27: Drainage and Irrigation Ditch Along West Side of Crop Fields . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Figure 28. Hydric and Non-Hydric Soils at Killbuck Creek , OH. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Figure 29. Surface water flow path from the aquatic pathway to both Lake Erie and the Ohio River,
along with potential obstructions to the upstream movement of ANS toward the pathway (NID, 2010). Background imagery courtesy of Bing Maps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Figure 30. Ohio River Navigation System Map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 31. Amount of Overtopping of Dams between 2.5-4.9 miles (4-7.8 km) Upstream of
Washington Avenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51Figure 32. Amount of Overtopping of Dams 2.5 miles (4 km) Upstream of Washington Avenue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
AcronymsANS . . . . . . Aquatic Nuisance SpeciesANSTF . . . . Aquatic Nuisance Species Task ForceCAWS . . . . Chicago Area Waterway SystemCEQ . . . . . . Council on Environmental QualityCWH . . . . . Coldwater HabitatDEM . . . . . . Digital Elevation ModelFEMA . . . . . Federal Emergency Management AgencyFIRM . . . . . Flood Insurance Rate Map FIS . . . . . . . Flood Insurance StudyGIS . . . . . . Geographic Information SystemGLFC . . . . . Great Lakes Fishery CommissionGLMRIS . . . Great Lakes and Mississippi River Interbasin StudyHUC . . . . . . Hydrologic Unit CodesINDNR . . . . Indiana Department of Natural ResourcesNAS . . . . . . Nonindigenous Aquatic SpeciesNCDC . . . . National Climatic Data CenterNEPA . . . . . National Environmental Policy ActNID . . . . . . National Inventory of DamsNOAA. . . . . National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNRCS . . . . Natural Resources Conservation ServiceNWI . . . . . . National Wetlands InventoryODNR . . . . Ohio Department of Natural ResourcesUSACE . . . U.S. Army Corps of EngineersUSFWS . . . U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceUSGS . . . . U.S. Geological SurveyWRDA . . . . Water Resources Development ActWRP . . . . . Wetlands Reserve ProgramWWH . . . . . Warmwater Habitat
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two locations lend a sense of urgency and national significance to completion of the GLMRIS. These two locations are the CAWS in Chicago, Illinois and Eagle Marsh in Fort Wayne, Indiana. To help accelerate completion of the feasibility study, the Great Lakes and Ohio River Division split management of the GLMRIS into two separate focus areas. Focus Area 1 is managed by the USACE, Chicago District and addresses the CAWS that open to Lake Michigan. Focus Area 2 is managed by the USACE, Buffalo District and evaluates all other potential aquatic pathways that exist or are likely to form across the basin divide separating precipitation that flows into the Mississippi River and its tributaries from precipitation that flows into the Great Lakes and its tributaries.
1.1 Study Purpose The preliminary report from 2010 and the subsequent analysis contained in this report have been produced for a broad audience ranging from the scientific community to the general public, and are specifically intended to identify any locations where an aquatic pathway exists or may form between the basins, and to evaluate the probability that specific ANS would be able to arrive at that pathway and cross into the new basin. The information in this and the other Focus Area 2 reports are intended to provide a sound scientific basis for helping to prioritize future funding of GLMRIS and/or other actions at these potential aquatic pathway locations.
This report is part of a tiered approach to assess the risk associated with the spread of ANS between the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basins, and it was prepared in accordance with the detailed procedures and criteria specified in the GLMRIS Focus Area 2 Study Plan (USACE, 2011a). The primary purpose of this report is to present the evidence and explain the procedures used to qualitatively estimate the likelihood that a viable aquatic pathway exists at the Little Killbuck Creeklocation that will enable the interbasin spread of ANS. It is also intended to contribute to the accomplishment of each of the four objectives identified in the plan by including the following:
A definitive determination of whether the Little
1 Introduction
The Great Lakes and Mississippi River Interbasin Study (GLMRIS) was authorized in Section 3061(d) of the Water Resources Development Act of 2007 (WRDA, 2007), and therein, it prescribes the following authority to the Secretary of the Army and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE).
“(d) FEASIBILITY STUDY. - The Secretary, in consultation with appropriate Federal, State, local, and nongovernmental entities, shall conduct, at Federal expense, a feasibility study of the range of options and technologies available to prevent the spread of aquatic nuisance species between the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basins through the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal and other aquatic pathways.”
This GLMRIS Focus Area 2 Aquatic Pathway Assessment report addresses the Little Killbuck Creek location, in Medina County, Ohio. This location is one of 18 locations identified in the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Interbasin Study Other Pathways Preliminary Risk Characterization as a potential aquatic pathway spanning the watershed divide between the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basins outside of the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS) (USACE, 2010). This report is downloadable from the GLMRIS web site (glmris.anl.gov/).
The dashed line in Figure 1 depicts the nearly 1,500-mile (2,414 km) long basin divide from the New York - Pennsylvania state line to north eastern Minnesota, and it depicts each of the 18 potential aquatic pathway locations that were previously identified. The Little Killbuck Creek location is shown as location number 4, just north of the Wayne County boundary and approximately 30 miles (48 km) southwest of Cleveland.
The GLMRIS is a very large and complicated task involving multiple USACE Districts and Divisions. Program Management of the study is conducted by the Great Lakes and Ohio River Division. The study considers several aquatic nuisance species (ANS) of concern, however, the proximity of Asian carp in the Mississippi River Basin to the basin divide near
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NAME COUNTY STATE
East Mud Lake Chautauqua NY
Mosquito Lake - Grand River Trumbull OH
Ohio-Erie Canal at Long Lake Summit OH
Little Killbuck Creek Medina OH
Grand Lake-St Marys Mercer OH
Eagle Marsh, Fort Wayne Allen IN
Loomis Lake Porter IN
Parker-Cobb Ditch Porter IN
Portage (Upstream) Columbia WI
NAME COUNTY STATE
Portage (Downstream and Canal) Columbia WI
Jerome Creek Kenosha WI
Menomonee Falls Waukesha WI
Rosendale - Brandon Fond du Lac WI
Hatley-Plover River Marathon WI
S. Aniwa Wetlands Marathon-Shawano WI
Brule Headwaters Douglas WI
Swan River Itasca MN
Libby Branch of Swan River Aitkin MN
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15
14
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10
1816
17
Figure 1. Potential aquatic pathway locations identified in the GLMRIS Preliminary Risk Characterization Study (USACE, 2010).
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aquatic pathways that could form anywhere along the divide separating the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basins, and help provide a basis for prioritizing future feasibility study efforts based upon relative risk.
The USACE solicited the input and collaborated with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) and the natural resource agencies in the states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. A total of 36 potential locations were initially identified along the divide where it appeared that interbasin flow could occur. These were locations situated in a mixture of rural, forested, suburban, and urban areas, and included locations where surface water flow patterns have been modified through the building of navigation canals, excavation of ditches, and construction of sewers to facilitate storm water management for agricultural, flood damage reduction, or other water management purposes. Also, many of the potential aquatic pathways identified in 2010 were locations where extensive natural wetlands exist in close proximity to, and in some instances appear to span, the basin divide. The lack of prior hydrologic studies and the level of uncertainty in the hydrology information led to a conservative approach in estimating the individual aquatic pathway risk ratings.
At 18 of these locations the interagency group determined that it would likely require an epic storm and flooding event for an aquatic pathway to ever form across the basin divide. These were not recommended for further investigation because this was considered a tolerably low level of risk. However, at the remaining 18 locations the group did recommend that a more detailed assessment be conducted (Figure 1). Only one location, Eagle Marsh in Fort Wayne, Indiana, was determined to pose a near term risk for the potential spread of Asian carp into the Great Lakes Basin, and this led to the installation of a temporary barrier by Indiana Department of Natural Resources (INDNR) until a more complete assessment and remedy could be implemented.
Although the preliminary risk characterization did not identify the Little Killbuck Creek Pathway as a location where there is a near term risk for the interbasin spread of ANS, there was some uncertainty with this rating. This was mainly due to the presence of the large agricultural
Killbuck Creek location should be included in the inventory of locations where a viable surface water connection between headwater streams on both sides of the drainage divide exists or is likely to form between the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River basins;
A comprehensive report that characterizes the probability of aquatic pathway formation, probability that a viable aquatic pathway exists at the Little Killbuck Creek location, and will enable the interbasin spread of ANS;
Development of clear problem statements that frame the means, constraints, and likelihood of the interbasin spread of ANS via the potential aquatic pathway at the Little Killbuck Creek location; and
Development of clear opportunity statements that illustrate how the collective authorities, resources, and capabilities of USACE and other applicable Federal, state, local, and non-governmental stakeholder organizations may best be coordinated and applied to prevent the interbasin spread of ANS through the Little Killbuck Creek location.
1.2 Summary of 2010 Preliminary Risk Characterization for Little Killbuck Creek, Ohio
The Great Lakes and Mississippi River Interbasin Study Other Pathways Preliminary Risk Characterization was designed as the first step of a tiered approach to rapidly conduct a study intended to accomplish two objectives (USACE, 2010). The first and primary objective was to determine if there were any locations within the GLMRIS, aside from the CAWS, where a near term risk for the interbasin spread of ANS exists. Near term, in this case, indicates that implementation of some measure(s) might be warranted to reduce the potential for ANS transfer at that particular location in the short term versus setting that site aside for further analysis. The second objective was to refine the scope of the other aquatic pathways portion of the GLMRIS by developing a list of potential
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1.3 Aquatic Pathway Team
Due to the large amount of unknowns and natural variability associated with the hydrology and the biology of such a large geographic area, the Study Plan specified formation of a “team of teams,” combining the best available local, state, and national hydrologists and biologists to assess conditions at each potential aquatic pathway. The results of this assessment reflect the collective experience, expertise, and focused effort of these biologists and hydrologists from NRCS, ODNR, USGS, and USACE. The results also reflect the guidance, input, review comments, and concurrence of the multi-organization Agency Technical Review team of experts from NOAA, NRCS, USGS, USFWS, and USACE.
2 Study Methodology
The GLMRIS risk analysis process is an adaptation of the generic model and process described in the Generic Nonindigenous Aquatic Organisms Risk Analysis Review Process (For Estimating Risk Associated with the Introduction of Nonindigenous Aquatic Organisms and How to Manage for that Risk) (ANSTF, 1996). The Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force (ANSTF) defines the first step in this process as identification of interested parties and solicitation of input.
2.1 CoordinationThe USACE identified interested parties and solicited input early in the process for Focus Area 2 and has included individual visits and discussions with the state agencies responsible for water resources, and fish and wildlife management in the eight states bordering the Great Lakes. The process used for the Focus Area 2 assessments has also been discussed in meetings with representatives of the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), USGS, USFWS, NOAA, NRCS, and Great Lakes
drainage network, nearby wetland areas, and the lack of readily available site specific hydrological evidence during the preliminary study effort to discern the relative frequency and potential magnitude of any aquatic pathway at this location. The preliminary effort recommended that a more detailed assessment be conducted at this location. This was subsequently done in collaboration with the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR), USFWS, USGS, and USACE. The following actions were taken:
Federal, State, and local stakeholders (i.e., USGS Water Science Center, ODNR Division of Soil and Water Resources, County Surveyor, and/or local Natural Resource Conservation representatives) were briefed on the preliminary risk characterization results. Site visits to observe potential connection locations were made. The available topographic mapping and flood hazard information were compiled and reviewed.
Conduct an evaluation of the dams on the connecting streams to the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River relative to the potential for ANS passage through, around, or over each in-stream structure in both directions.
Conduct an evaluation of habitat and abiotic conditions in proximity to the location relative to the needs and preferences of ANS in proximity to each location.
Prepare a set of revised ANS transfer probability ratings for each location based upon a more detailed evaluation of ANS transfer probability via the aquatic pathway in both directions.
Revise both the hydrologic probability and ANS probability ratings and characterization for each site based on the new information.
Identify measures that could be implemented at the local or state level to mitigate the likelihood of ANS spreading across the Mississippi River-Great Lakes Basin divide.
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intensive evaluation of the probability of ANS being able to utilize that pathway. At the remaining 18 locations, it was recommended that a more detailed assessment be conducted (Figure 1). This was subsequently done in 2011-2012 in collaboration with USGS, NRCS, USFWS, state natural resource agencies, and county surveyors (where applicable), and the results for the Little Killbuck Creek location are presented in this report.
A recurrence interval relates any given storm, through statistical analysis, to the historical records of rainfall and runoff for a given area. The recurrence interval is based on the statistical probability that a given intensity storm event will be equaled or exceeded in any given year. For instance, a one percent recurrence interval storm is a rainfall event that has a one percent probability, one chance in 100, of being equaled or exceeded in any given year. This level of storm event was commonly referred to as a 100-year storm event, but this term has led people to incorrectly conclude that a 100-year storm event is one that only occurs once in any given 100 year period. A ten percent annual recurrence interval storm (formerly referred to as a ten year event) is a smaller event that has a one in ten chance of being exceed during any given year, and a 0.2 percent annual recurrence interval storm (formerly referred to as a 500-year event) is a larger event that has a one in 500 chance of being exceeded in any given year.
Although the focus of this assessment is on aquatic pathways, it should also be mentioned that there are other non-aquatic pathways that may enable ANS to transit across the aquatic pathway or across the basin divide. Although these other pathways do not influence the overall pathway rating outlined in this report, they are included to point out potential other pathways (e.g., anthropogenic) and their potential influence on the same list of ANS as evaluated in Section 4 of this report. Any further analysis of these non-aquatic pathways outside of this study should develop a separate list of ANS that will likely differ from the list of ANS evaluated as part of this aquatic pathway report.
Fishery Commission (GLFC). Development of this plan also included input from the public and interested non-governmental organizations received during formal National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) public scoping meetings which were held at 12 locations across the region in both basins between December 2010 and March 2011. The USACE requested the support and participation of the best available experts from the State and Federal agencies responsible for water resources, and fish and wildlife management in the states along the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basin divide to address the critically important issue of preventing interbasin transfer of ANS. The USGS, NRCS, and each state DNR assigned personnel to assist each USACE pathway assessment team. In addition, a technical review team comprised of 16 senior level experts from the USACE and these external partner agencies, including NOAA and GLFC, was assembled to review and guide the work of these teams. Overall, extensive collaboration among partner agencies, the review team, and other subject matter experts has led to detailed Focus Area 2 pathway assessments.
2.2 Identification of Potential Pathways
At 18 of the potential aquatic pathways identified during the 2010 Preliminary Risk Characterization, it was determined it would likely require an epic storm and flooding event (i.e., greater than a one percent annual recurrence interval storm event) for an aquatic pathway to ever form across the basin divide. These locations were not recommended for further investigation because areas that might require a flooding event in excess (greater magnitude, less frequency) of the one percent annual recurrence interval flood are less likely, and therefore present a low level of risk. This one percent threshold criteria was established through collaboration with the USGS, USFWS, NRCS, GLFC, and the departments of natural resources in the states of MI, MN, WI, IL, IN, OH, PA, and NY. This threshold is also widely used in flood risk management and is typically aligned with most readily available hydrologic information. The one percent annual recurrence interval threshold only indicates at what level event an aquatic connection can begin to form and would indicate a location that should then be subjected to a more labor
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of the plan. This USACE white paper included a review of 254 aquatic species that are either nonindigenous to either basin or native species that occur in one basin or the other. The list of 254 aquatic species were iteratively screened to identify all potential ANS that could be of concern in either basin and to systematically focus the study toward those species judged to pose the highest potential risk of ecological impacts if they became established in the other basin.
In the first screening iteration, 119 of the 254 aquatic species reviewed were determined to pose a potential threat of infiltrating the other basin and were carried into the second iteration of the analysis. The other 135 species were rejected for further analysis for several reasons. Initially, 104 species were dropped from further consideration because they were determined to already be established in both basins. Another 31 species were removed from further analysis because they were not yet located in either basin, could bypass any aquatic control mechanism by terrestrial movement, or had no potential to cause adverse affects to the invaded ecosystem.
2.3.2 List of ANS of Concern for GLMRIS
To determine species of concern that are pertinent for the GLMRIS from the list of 119 species, the USACE Natural Resources team compiled, reviewed, and analyzed the best available information. Literature reviews, species proximity to aquatic interbasin connections (in particular the CAWS), ecological tolerances and needs, and vagility of the species were all included in the analysis. The team ranked each species as high, medium, or low risk according to these parameters. The result was the establishment of a list of 39 species, each identified as having both a high level of potential risk for both transferring from one basin to another, and potentially a high risk in that if they do disperse, and the invaded ecosystem could be moderately to severely affected by their colonization (Table 1). A fact sheet was developed for each of these species of concern detailing morphological characteristics useful for identification, including color photographs of the species, information on their ecology, habitat, distribution, and current status in the Mississippi River or Great Lakes Basins.
2.3 Aquatic Nuisance Species of Concern
This report addresses the problem of ANS invading, via surface-water pathways, the Great Lakes Basin from the Mississippi River Basin and vice versa. ANS is defined by the ANSTF as “… nonindigenous species that threaten the diversity or abundance of native species or the ecological stability of infested waters, or commercial, agricultural, aquacultural or recreational activities dependent on such waters.” The USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS) information resource http://nas.er.usgs.gov/about/faq.aspx defines NAS as “…a species that enters a body of water or aquatic ecosystem outside of its historic or native range.” (USGS, 2012). Based on discussions between the USACE, USGS, and USFWS the following definitions were established for the purposes of the GLMRIS. All nonindigenous aquatic species (per the USGS definition above), that are present in the Great Lakes but not known to be present in the Mississippi River and its tributaries are defined as ANS of concern for GLMRIS. Likewise, all nonindigenous aquatic species present in the Mississippi River or its tributaries but not known to be present in the Great Lakes are also considered as ANS of concern for the GLMRIS. Therefore, the term ANS is synonymous with the term nonindigenous aquatic species in this report.
2.3.1 Lists of Nonindigenous Species in Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basins
The list of ANS of concern for a particular location was developed by first consulting the USACE white paper titled, Non-Native Species of Concern and Dispersal Risk for the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Interbasin Study released in September 2011 (USACE, 2011b). This technical paper, prepared by a multi-disciplinary USACE Natural Resources team, took a broad look at the potential range of species that could be of concern to the GLMRIS. The paper is Appendix C of the GLMRIS Focus Area 2 Study Plan and it is an integral component
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Fork Reservoir in Richland and Morrow Counties, Ohio in 2008), it has not yet been determined that VHSv has established within the Mississippi or Ohio River Basins. Minimizing the spread of VHSv remains a priority for the state of Ohio (Great Lakes Commission, 2011; USGS, 2011b). It was therefore included as an ANS of concern threatening the Mississippi River Basin for the Little Killbuck Creek aquatic pathway.
Each of the three subgroups in Tables 2 and Table 3 were evaluated based on the dispersal mechanisms and general mobility of the species within each group. Since the Little Killbuck Creek potential pathway is positioned on the basin divide, well upstream of any know ANS listed in this assessment, any organism that moves solely through the aquatic pathway must possess either self-propelled mobility or the ability to hitchhike on other organisms to travel upstream. Thus, this eliminates organisms that rely on current for dispersal, such as plants and algae.
The Little Killbuck site is an active farm consisting of inter-connected drainage ditches. Fishing, boating, and access by the general public through and around the site is extremely limited. In addition, adjacent streams including Little Killbuck Creek, Repp Run, and Clear Creek have greater potential for recreational use, but still very limited.
Based on the evaluation by subgroups, only fish and parasites of fish were considered to have the requisite means of reaching the divide at the Little Killbuck Creek site from either direction. Nine fish, one parasitic copepod, one virus, and two mollusks were ultimately identified as high risk species for the Little Killbuck Creek site (Table 4). These were chosen based on their relative proximity to the site, history of invasiveness, and physical capabilities to reach and use this pathway to cross to the adjacent basin. Although mollusks were not considered to have the requisite means of reaching the pathway unassisted, they were included in the list of species of concern for biological assessment based on their close proximity to the pathway.
2.3.3 List of ANS of Specific Concern at the Little Killbuck Creek Location
The Little Killbuck Creek aquatic pathway team then subdivided the set of species listed in Table 1 into two groups: ANS threatening the Great Lakes, and ANS threatening the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Each of these two lists was then sorted into subgroups in accordance with taxonomy and common dispersal mechanism. Table 2 and Table 3 reflect these groupings of species that were found to pose a significant risk to the Mississippi River and its tributaries, and to the Great Lakes and its tributaries, respectively (USACE, 2011b).
Additionally, the Little Killbuck Creek aquatic pathway team reviewed the information on the 119 species initially determined to pose a potential threat of infiltrating the other basin to see if any were in close enough proximity to the Little Killbuck Creek location to be of concern. The team reviewed information on the NOAA Watchlist of species threatening the Great Lakes from international waters, and information on other species cited by the review team as high risk potential invaders not yet in either basin (NOAA, 2011). No additional species from the NOAA Watchlist were added to the species of concern for the Little Killbuck Creek location. However, the NOAA Watchlist was utilized as a resource, at the recommendation of agency team members, to identify any additional potential future species that could be introduced into either basin and possibly spread from there to the other basin.
Each Focus Area 2 aquatic pathway team was granted flexibility in determining whether to add additional species to their assessment based on their review of available information and the actual location of the specific potential pathway relative to the known location of those ANS being considered. Based on concerns from local agencies about the potential for spread of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSv, Novirhabdovirus sp), each Focus Area 2 aquatic pathway team evaluated whether VHSv should be included on the ANS of concern list for each of the Focus Area 2 aquatic pathways. Although VHSv has been identified in both basins (i.e., VHSv was confirmed in Ohio River Basin in the Clear
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Table 1. ANS of Concern for GLMRIS.
Taxon Scientific Name Common Name Basin Interbasin Dispersal Mechanism
fish Alosa aestivalis blueback herring GL swimmer
fish Alosa chrysochloris skipjack herring MS swimmer
fish Alosa pseudoharengus Alewife GL swimmer
crustacean Apocorophium lacustre a scud MS ballast water
algae Bangia atropupurea red macro-algae GL ballast / recreational boating
annelid Branchuris sowerbyi tubificid worm GL sediment transport
crustacean Bythotrephes longimanus spiny waterflea GL ballast water/sediment transport
plant Carex acutiformis swamp sedge GL recreational boating & trailers
crustacean Cercopagis pengoi fish-hook water flea GL ballast / recreational boating
fish Channa argus northern snakehead MS swimmer
algae Cyclotella cryptica cryptic algae GL unknown / any water
algae Cyclotella pseudostelligera cylindrical algae GL unknown / any water
crustacean Daphnia galeata galeata water flea GL ballast water
crustacean Echinogammarus ischnus a European amphipod GL ballast water
algae Enteromorpha flexuosa grass kelp GL ballast / recreational boating
fish Gasterosteus aculeatus threespine stickleback GL swimmer
plant Glyceria maxima reed sweetgrass GL recreational boating & trailers
fish Gymnocephalus cernua Ruffe GL swimmer
crustacean Hemimysis anomala bloody red shrimp GL ballast water
fish Hypophthalmichthys molitrix silver carp MS swimmer
fish Hypophthalmichthys nobilis bighead carp MS swimmer
plant Landoltia (Spirodela) punctata dotted duckweed MS recreational boating & trailers
bryozoan Lophopodella carteri bryozoans GL with aquatic plants
fish Menidia beryllina inland silverside MS swimmer
plant Murdannia keisak marsh dewflower MS recreational boating & trailers
fish Mylopharyngodon piceus black carp MS swimmer
crustacean Neoergasilus japonicus a parasitic copepod GL parasite to fish
plant Oxycaryum cubense Cuban bulrush MS recreational boating & trailers
fish Petromyzon marinus sea lamprey GL swimmer
mollusk Pisidium amnicum greater European pea clam GL ballast water
fish Proterorhinus semilunaris tubenose goby GL swimmer
protozoan Psammonobiotus communis testate amoeba GL ballast water
protozoan Psammonobiotus dziwnowi testate amoeba GL ballast water
protozoan Psammonobiotus linearis testate amoeba GL ballast water
crustacean Schizopera borutzkyi parasitic copepod GL ballast water
mollusk Sphaerium corneum European fingernail clam GL ballast water
algae Stephanodiscus binderanus Diatom GL ballast water
plant Trapa natans water chestnut GL recreational boating & trailers
mollusk Valvata piscinalis European stream valvata GL ships
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Table 2: ANS of Concern Threatening the Mississippi River Basin.
Taxon Scientific Name Common Name Interbasin Dispersal Mechanism
fish Alosa aestivalis blueback herring swimmer
fish Alosa pseudoharengus Alewife swimmer
fish Gasterosteus aculeatus threespine stickleback swimmer
fish Gymnocephalus cernua ruffe swimmer
fish Petromyzon marinus sea lamprey swimmer
fish Proterorhinus semilunaris tubenose goby swimmer
crustacean Neoergasilus japonicus a parasitic copepod parasite to fish
crustacean Bythotrephes longimanus spiny waterflea ballast water/sediment
crustacean Cercopagis pengoi fish-hook water flea ballast / rec. boating
crustacean Daphnia galeata galeata water flea ballast water
crustacean Echinogammarus ischnus a European amphipod ballast water
crustacean Hemimysis anomala bloody red shrimp ballast water
crustacean Schizopera borutzkyi parasitic copepod ballast water
mollusk Pisidium amnicum greater European pea clam ballast water
mollusk Valvata piscinalis European stream valvata ships
mollusk Sphaerium corneum European fingernail clam ballast water
protozoan Psammonobiotus communis testate amoeba ballast water
protozoan Psammonobiotus dziwnowi testate amoeba ballast water
protozoan Psammonobiotus linearis testate amoeba ballast water
annelid Branchuris sowerbyi tubificid worm sediment transport
plant Carex acutiformis swamp sedge recreational boats & trailers
plant Glyceria maxima reed sweetgrass recreational boats & trailers
plant Trapa natans water chestnut recreational boats & trailers
bryozoan Lophopodella carteri bryozoans with aquatic plants
algae Bangia atropupurea red macro-algae ballast / rec. boating
algae Cyclotella cryptica cryptic algae unknown / any water
algae Cyclotella pseudostelligera cylindrical algae unknown / any water
algae Enteromorpha flexuosa grass kelp ballast / rec. boating
algae Stephanodiscus binderanus diatom ballast water
Table 3: ANS of Concern Threatening the Great Lakes.
Taxon Scientific Name Common Name Interbasin Dispersal Mechanism
fish Alosa chrysochloris skipjack herring swimmer
fish Channa argus northern snakehead swimmer
fish Hypophthalmichthys molitrix silver carp swimmer
fish Hypophthalmichthys nobilis bighead carp swimmer
fish Menidia beryllina inland silverside swimmer
fish Mylopharyngodon piceus black carp swimmer
crustacean Apocorophium lacustre a scud ballast water
plant Landoltia (Spirodela) punctata dotted duckweed recreational boats & trailers
plant Murdannia keisak marsh dewflower recreational boats & trailers
plant Oxycaryum cubense Cuban bulrush recreational boats & trailers
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Equation 1 R Establishment = P Establishment x C Establishment
Where:R Establishment = Risk of Establishment P Establishment = Probability of Establishment C Establishment = Consequence of Establishment
Note the risk is defined as a multiplicative function. That means, if either of these components is zero or low, the overall risk will also be zero or low. In order to work most efficiently given the large number of potential pathways, the GLMRIS Other Aquatic Pathways Team (Focus Area 2) concentrated its effort on characterizing the probability of establishment, while the GLMRIS Focus Area 1 Team for the CAWS is focusing on both components. An estimate of the consequences of any ANS establishment from the Focus Area 2 aquatic pathways will be deferred until possible future study by USACE or others.
ANSTF divides the probability of establishment component shown in Equation 1 into four basic elements which describe the basic events that must occur for an ANS to establish in the new environment:
2.3.4 Key Attributes of Selected Organisms
Excluding the information for VHSv, a significant amount of ANS information was obtained from the USACE White Paper listing the non-native species of concern and dispersal risk for GLMRIS (USACE, 2011b). The VHSv was not identified as a species of concern in this white paper. However, during interagency coordination VHSv was identified as a species of concern for Little Killbuck Creek. Additional information was obtained from the USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS) website (USGS, 2011).
2.4 Pathway Assessment Process
The GLMRIS risk analysis process is an adaptation of the generic model and process described in the Generic Nonindigenous Aquatic Organisms Risk Analysis Review Process (For Estimating Risk Associated with the Introduction of Nonindigenous Aquatic Organisms and How to Manage for that Risk) (ANSTF, 1996). ANSTF defines the risk associated with an ANS as:
Table 4: Species of Greatest Concern at Little Killbuck Creek
Taxa Species Common Name Basin Interbasin Dispersal Mechanism
fish Hypophthalmichthys molitrix silver carp MS swimmer
fish Hypophthalmichthys nobilis bighead carp MS swimmer
fish Mylopharyngodon piceus black carp MS swimmer
fish Menidia beryllina inland silverside MS swimmer
fish Channa argus northern snakehead MS swimmer
fish Alosa chrysochloris skipjack herring MS swimmer
fish Gasterosteus aculeatus threespine stickleback GL swimmer
fish Gymnocephalus cernua ruffe GL swimmer
fish Proterorhinus semilunaris tubenose goby GL swimmer
copepod Neoergasilus japonicus parasitic copepod GL parasite to fish
virus Novirhabdovirus sp. Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia virus (VHSv) GL Pathogen to fish/water column
mollusk Sphaerium corneum European fingernail clam GL floater
mollusk Valvata piscinalis European stream valvata GL floater
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Greater efficiency in analysis can be gained by modifying Equation 3 by eliminating evaluation of the last two elements because if a pathway does not exist there is no reason to collect data on colonization (P3) and spread (P4) in the new basin. In addition, the third element of Equation 3, ANS transits pathway (P2), is broken down into its own sequence of necessary events to characterize in greater detail those variables being evaluated to determine whether or not a viable pathway exists. In setting aside the last two elements in Equation 3 (P3 and P4), no attempt is therefore made in this report to assess the probability that an ANS will colonize in or spread through the receiving waterway or basin. USACE or others may assess the last two elements of Equation 3 in the future when evaluating specific measures that could be taken to eliminate the probability of transfer at certain aquatic pathways.
Once again, in order to work efficiently in assessing ANS risk for Focus Area 2, the initial assessment focuses narrowly on the question of whether or not a viable aquatic pathway exists. Equation 4 shows how the third element of Equation 3 has been broken down to provide greater resolution for evaluating the pathway itself:
Equation 4 [Modification of Equation 3 – P2 Element]P2 = [P2a x P2b x P2c]
Where:P2 = P ANS transits pathway P2a = P ANS surviving transit to aquatic pathway P2b = P ANS establishing in proximity to the aquatic pathwayP2c = P ANS spreading across aquatic pathway into new basin
Delaying consideration of the last two elements of Equation 3 and substituting the more detailed consideration of the third element as expressed in Equation 4 yields the following model used in the GLMRIS Focus Area 2 assessments:
Equation 2P Establishment = [P1 x P2 x P3 x P4]
Where:P1 = P ANS associated with pathwayP2 = P ANS survives transitP3 = P ANS colonizes in new environment P4 = P ANS spreads beyond colonized area
Each of the four elements of Equation 2 is qualitatively rated a High (H), Medium (M), or Low (L) based on the available evidence. They are also qualitatively assigned a level of certainty [Very Certain (VC), Reasonably Certain (RC), Moderately Certain (MC), Reasonably Uncertain (RU), Very Uncertain (VU)]. The overall probability rating is the rating of the element with the lowest probability. Thus, in a quartet of HLHH the overall probability rating is “L”. The multiplicative nature of the function assures this is actually a somewhat conservative estimate. With actual numbers the overall probability would always be smaller than the smallest of the four factors. These elements have been modified for use in GLMRIS (Equation 3) to describe the basic sequence of events that must occur for an ANS to successfully cross the basin divide through an aquatic pathway and establish in the new basin:
Equation 3 [FA1 Model]P Establishment = [P0 x P1 x P2 x P3 x P4]
Where:P0 = P Pathway existsP1 = P ANS has access to pathwayP2 = P ANS transits pathway P3 = P ANS colonizes in new waterwayP4 = P ANS spreads in new waterway
This model works well in areas where a viable pathway is already known to exist, such as the CAWS. However, for many of the 18 locations identified in GLMRIS Focus Area 2, it was uncertain at the outset whether or not an aquatic pathway does in fact ever form. The team recognized that formation of a pathway at these locations would likely be infrequent, and with a limited duration and magnitude (width, depth, and rate of surface water flow across the basin divide). Consequently, the model in Equation 3 was modified further for Focus Area 2.
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5 were evaluated for each ANS of concern specific to that particular location for a 50 year period of analysis.
Equation 5 [FA2 Modified]P Viable pathway = [P0 x P1’ x P2a x P2b x P2c]
Where:P0 = P Pathway exists P1’ = P ANS occurring within either basinP2a = P ANS surviving transit to aquatic pathway P2b = P ANS establishing in proximity to the aquatic pathwayP2c = P ANS spreading across aquatic pathway into new basin
Notice the overall probability is now the “probability a viable pathway exists” (PViable pathway) and is no longer the original “probability of establishment” (PEstablishment) from Equation 3. The probability of establishment for certain aquatic pathways may be assessed in future studies by USACE or others, but likely only for those pathways with an unacceptable rating for the “probability of a viable pathway” existing. Note also that (P1), ANS has access to pathway from Equation 3 has been renamed (P1’), ANS occurring within either basin”. This did not change the element being evaluated but made it clearer to team members what “access to the pathway” actually meant.
This model remains consistent with the overall GLMRIS risk assessment approach and the ANSTF methodology, and the refinements enabled the assessors to focus more appropriately on the relevant evidence. At those locations along the basin divide where the first element in Equation 5 (i.e., likelihood that an aquatic pathway exists at up to a one percent annual recurrence interval event) was estimated to be low, no further assessment of that location was necessary. The low rating of this initial element assures that the overall probability of a viable pathway existing (Equation 5), the overall probability of establishment (Equation 3), and the ANS risk potential (Equation 1), will all be low because of the multiplicative nature of the model. This approach assured a more prudent use of public resources in data collection and assessment by minimizing the collection of unnecessary data and the conduct of unnecessary analyses. It should also be understood that a low rating for probability of a pathway existing (P0) is not necessarily the same as there being no probability of a pathway existing. At those locations where the probability of a pathway existing (P0) was determined to be medium or high, which includes the Little Killbuck Creek pathway, the remaining four elements in Equation
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Eq
uat
ion
3 –
P2
Ele
men
t]
P2
= [
P2a
x P
2b x
P2c
]
Eq
uat
ion
4 [
Mo
dif
icat
ion
of
Eq
uat
ion
3 –
P2
Ele
men
t]
P2
= [
P2a
x P
2b x
P2c
]P
Est
ablis
hm
ent =
[P
0 x
P1
x P
2 x
P3
x P
4]P
3P
3P
4P
4
Wh
ere:
R E
stab
lish
men
t =
Ris
k o
f E
stab
lish
men
t
P E
stab
lish
men
t =
Pro
bab
ility
of
Est
ablis
hm
ent
C E
stab
lish
men
t =
Co
nse
qu
ence
of
Est
ablis
hm
ent
P1
= P
AN
S a
sso
ciat
ed w
ith
pat
hw
ay
P2
= P
AN
S s
urv
ives
tra
nsi
t
P3
= P
AN
S c
olo
niz
es in
new
en
viro
nm
ent
P4
= P
AN
S s
pre
ads
bey
on
d c
olo
niz
ed a
rea
P0
= P
Pat
hw
ay e
xist
s
P1
= P
AN
S h
as a
cces
s to
pat
hw
ay
P2
= P
AN
S t
ran
sits
pat
hw
ay
P3
= P
AN
S c
olo
niz
es in
new
wat
erw
ay
P4
= P
AN
S s
pre
ads
in n
ew w
ater
way
P1’
= P
AN
S o
ccu
rrin
g w
ith
in e
ith
er b
asin
P2a
= P
AN
S s
urv
ivin
g t
ran
sit
to a
qu
atic
pat
hw
ay
P2b
= P
AN
S e
stab
lish
ing
in p
roxi
mit
y to
th
e aq
uat
ic p
ath
way
P2c
= P
AN
S s
pre
adin
g a
cro
ss a
qu
atic
pat
hw
ay in
to n
ew b
asin
P V
iab
le p
ath
way
= [
P0
x P
1’ x
P2a
x P
2b x
P2c
]P
Via
ble
pat
hw
ay =
[P
0 x
P1’
x P
2a x
P2b
x P
2c]
MED-H
IGH
LOW
P0=
Fig
ure
2.
Dia
gra
m o
f th
e d
eriva
tion o
f th
e G
LM
RIS
Focu
s A
rea 2
aquatic
path
way
ass
ess
ment
model.
14 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
to determine the viability of the aquatic pathway to transfer species across the divide in either direction. The determination of the likelihood of a viable aquatic pathway for each ANS of concern is the product of five probability elements (Equation 5). Thus, the probability of a viable pathway for a particular ANS of concern is equal to the lowest rating determined for each of the five probability elements (Table 5 and Table 6). The overall pathway viability for transferring ANS of concern from the Mississippi River Basin to the Great Lakes Basin was equal to the highest probability of a viable pathway for each ANS of concern in Table 5. In this example, all were rated low and thus the overall pathway viability for transferring species from the Mississippi River Basin
2.5 Example Calculation of Overall Aquatic Pathway Viability
As described in Section 2.2, a list of ANS of concern for the Little Killbuck Creek pathway was developed with input from Federal, State, and local agencies responsible for water resources, and fish and wildlife management in the state of Ohio and neighboring states along the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basin divide. ANS of concern were grouped according to which basin they were currently established in
Table 5. Example calculation of Pathway Viability for ANS Spreading from Mississippi River Basin to the Great Lakes Basin.
Form 1
P0
Form 2
P1
Form 3
P2a
Form 4
P2b
Form 5
P2c
Pviable pathway
Group Common Name
Mode of Dispersal
Pathway Exists?
ANS Occuring
Within Either Basin?
ANS Surviving Transit to Pathway?
ANS Establishing in Proximity to Aquatic Pathway?
ANS Spread-
ing Across Aquatic Pathway into New Basin?
ANS/Path-way Viability
Rating
fish
Asian carp,
swimmerM (RC)
M (RC) L (RC) L (MC) M (RU) Lsilver carp,
bighead carp,
black carp
fish inland silverside swimmer M (VC) L (MC) L (RC) L (RC) L
Overall Pathway Viability for Spread of ANS from Mississippi River Basin to Great Lakes Basin L
VC=Very Certain (as certain as going to get), RC=Reasonably Certain (reasonably certain), MC=Moderately Certain (more certain than not), RU=Relatively Uncertain (reasonably uncertain), VU=Very Uncertain (a guess)
Table 6. Example calculation of Pathway Viability for ANS Spreading from Great Lakes Basin to the Mississippi River Basin.
Form 1
P0
Form 2
P1
Form 3
P2a
Form 4
P2b
Form 5
P2c
Pviable pathway
Group Common Name
Mode of Dispersal
Pathway Exists?
ANS Occuring
Within Either Basin?
ANS Surviving Transit to Pathway?
ANS Establishing in Proximity to Aquatic Pathway?
ANS Spread-
ing Across Aquatic Pathway into New Basin?
ANS/Path-way Viability
Rating
fish threespine stickleback swimmer
M (RC)
M (VC) L (RC) L (MC) L (MC) L
pathogen VHSvfish pathogen
/ water column
H (VC) H (MC) H (RC) H (RU) M
Overall Pathway Viability for Spread of ANS from Great Lakes Basin to Mississippi River Basin M
Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
15
to the Great Lakes Basin is “low”. The overall pathway viability for transferring species from the Great Lakes Basin is calculated the same way and is shown in Table 6. In this example, the overall pathway viability for transferring species from the Great Lakes Basin to the Mississippi River Basin is “medium”.
The last calculation is to determine the overall pathway viability for interbasin spread of ANS which is calculated by taking the highest of the overall ANS ratings for unidirectional transfer which were calculated in Tables 5 and 6. Thus, in Table 6, the overall probability that a viable aquatic pathway exists is “medium”. The ratings given for each element as well as the overall pathway viability ratings shown in Tables 5 and 6 were coordinated amongst the members of the pathway team regarding the probability rating (H, M, or L) and the level of certainty (VC, RC, MC, RU, or VU). Final agreement was reached on team ratings for each element through collaboration and sharing of applicable information with all team members. The level of certainty in these ratings was modified during these discussions to reflect the range of opinion.
3 Aquatic Pathway Characterization
This section describes and illustrates the topography and features in the vicinity of the potential pathway and is intended to help inform the biological evaluations contained later in this report with a compilation of any readily available and applicable information of this area as it may influence local hydrology. Maps, photographs, and figures are included to aid understanding of the hydrologic and hydraulic conditions near the drainage divide. Also, this section identifies any significant data gaps and uncertainties related to this topographic information and hydrologic modeling in the area of interest.
3.1 Location This potential aquatic pathway is located in Medina County, Ohio, just north of the Wayne County boundary and approximately 38 miles (61 km) southwest of Cleveland (Figure 3). Just to the north of the study area is the village of Lodi and just to the south is the village of Burbank (in Wayne County). The land use in the vicinity is primarily agriculture, patches of woodland, wetlands, and rural residential development.
The roads surrounding the site are Lodi Road and Congress Road (west side), Willow Road (south side), Bank and Wooster Streets (north side), and Avon Lake Road (east side). Franchester Road (western portion) and Garden Isle Road (center portion) are within the potential pathway area (Figure 4). The headwater streams in the Mississippi River Basin at this location are Little Killbuck Creek, which generally flows from east to west, and Repp Run which generally flows from west to east. These two streams join just south of the basin divide to form Killbuck Creek, just north of Interstate Highway 71. An intricate network of agricultural ditches exists on the Great Lakes side of the basin which drain to Clear Creek and West Fork East Branch Black River. These streams flow north from the location and converge to form the East Branch Black River. The general latitude and longitude of this pathway is at N41.01547, W082.01824.
The red-white line in Figure 4 is the 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) boundary, which depicts the divide between the Great Lakes Basin (HUC 04110001) and Mississippi River Basin (HUC 05040003) (USGS, 2010). There is the possibility of interbasin surface water flow along an approximate 2.5 mile (4 km) distance, as the divide between the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basins in this location is formed by an agricultural levee. This levee provides as little as 20 feet (6.1 m) of separation between agricultural ditches that appear to maintain perennial flows to the north and portions of Little Killbuck Creek and Repp Run to the south.
16 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
Fig
ure
3.
Loca
tion o
f Litt
le K
illbuck
Cre
ek
in t
he n
ort
hern
Ohio
and lo
catio
n o
f th
e d
ivid
e b
etw
een t
he G
reat
Lake
s and M
issi
ssip
pi R
iver
Basi
n w
ithin
the s
tate
of
Ohio
. B
ack
gro
und im
agery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
17
Fig
ure
4.
Litt
le K
illbuck
deta
iled s
ite lo
catio
n m
ap in
Medin
a C
ounty
, O
hio
ove
r U
SG
S t
opogra
phic
map.
18 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
3.2 ClimateClimate is looked at in this section just to identify any applicable elements of climate (e.g., temperature, rainfall) and how they may influence the likelihood of an aquatic connection forming at the subject pathway that could be utilized by ANS to spread between the basins. Climate data for the Little Killbuck Creek area was obtained from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) at four stations in the site vicinity, with the mean temperature and precipitation amounts for the locations shown in Table 7 and Table 8 (MRCC, 2011). The period of record for all four stations is from 1971 to 2000, and the location of these stations relative to the study area is shown in Figure 5.
The lowest temperature recorded was in January at -26°F (-32°C). The highest temperature recorded was in July at plus 104°F (40°C). The average mean low is 25° F in January and the average mean high is 72°F (22° C) degrees in July. Average mean precipitation ranges from 2.10 to 3.96 inches (5.3–10 cm) per month over the year. The lowest mean precipitation amount occurred in February and the highest in July. The four months with the lowest average mean precipitation,
from lowest to highest, are February, January, October, and December. The highest precipitation accumulation occurs in the summer months during July and August. On the afternoon and evening just before the May 2011 site visit, 2.73 inches (6.9 cm) of rain fell in the study area and caused considerable flooding, resulted in flooded fields and roadways, and water passed across the basin divide. The rainfall from this storm event is believed to be between a two and five percent annual recurrence interval event.
Table 7: Temperature Summary from 1971-2000 for the four stations near Little Killbuck Creek, Ohio (MRCC, 2011).
Mean Temperature in degrees F
Station JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANN
330058 Akron Canton WSO AP
25.2 28.3 37.7 48.1 58.8 67.5 71.8 70.3 63.0 51.6 41.1 30.7 49.5
330061 Akron 27.2 30.2 39.2 50.1 61.3 69.8 74.1 72.2 65.1 53.5 42.8 32.4 51.5
331541 Chip-pewa Lake 23.7 26.5 36.0 46.9 58.1 67.2 71.3 69.4 62.6 51.2 40.2 29.5 48.6
339312 Wooster Exp Station
24.9 28.0 37.7 48.4 59.1 67.7 71.5 69.6 62.6 50.9 40.6 30.3 49.3
Mean Temperature in degrees C
330058 Akron Canton WSO AP -3.8 -2.1 3.2 8.9 14.9 19.7 22.1 21.3 17.2 10.9 5.1 -0.7 9.7
330061 Akron -2.7 -1.0 4.0 10.1 16.3 21.0 23.4 22.3 18.4 11.9 6.0 0.2 10.8
331541 Chip-pewa Lake -4.6 -3.1 2.2 46.9 8.3 19.5 21.8 20.8 17.0 10.7 4.6 -1.4 9.2
339312 Wooster Exp Station -3.9 -2.2 3.2 9.1 15.1 19.8 21.9 20.9 17.0 10.5 4.8 -0.9 9.6
Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
19
Table 8: Precipitation Summary from 1971-2000 for the four stations near Little Killbuck Creek, Ohio (MRCC, 2011).
Mean Temperature in degrees F
Station JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANN
330058 Akron Canton WSO AP
2.49 2.28 3.15 3.39 3.96 3.55 4.02 3.65 3.43 2.53 3.04 2.98 38.47
330061 Akron 2.02 2.00 2.85 3.15 3.61 3.13 3.87 3.36 3.57 2.46 3.22 2.83 36.07
331541 Chip-pewa Lake 2.37 2.14 2.98 3.38 3.69 3.76 3.98 3.62 3.63 2.48 3.31 3.00 38.34
339312 Wooster Exp Station
2.26 1.97 2.78 3.43 3.92 4.02 3.96 4.03 3.42 2.58 3.00 2.67 38.04
Mean Temperature in degrees C
330058 Akron Canton WSO AP 6.32 5.79 8.0 8.6 10.06 9.02 10.21 9.27 8.71 6.43 7.72 7.57 97.71
330061 Akron 5.13 5.08 7.24 8.00 9.17 7.95 9.83 8.53 9.07 6.25 8.18 7.19 91.62
331541 Chip-pewa Lake 6.02 5.44 7.57 8.59 9.37 9.55 10.11 9.19 9.22 6.30 8.41 7.62 97.38
339312 Wooster Exp Station 5.74 5.00 7.06 8.71 9.96 10.21 10.06 10.24 8.69 6.55 7.62 6.78 96.62
20 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
Fig
ure
5.
Clim
ate
data
sta
tions
(Lodi i
s in
nort
hw
est
quadra
nt)
. S
tatio
n 3
30058 A
kron-C
anto
n W
SO
AP,
OH
; S
tatio
n 3
30061 A
kron,
OH
; S
tatio
n 3
31541 C
hip
pew
a L
ake
, O
H;
and
Sta
tion 3
39312 W
oost
er
Exp
Sta
tion,
OH
. (M
RC
C,
2011
). B
ack
gro
und im
agery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
21
3.3 Location Specific Surface Water Features
The information contained in this section is meant to present and interpret the readily available information for this location as it pertains to surface water conditions and any aspects within the area that may influence the behavior of surface water. The location of the basin divide, the configuration of ditch network, and the flow directions of the ditches and streams in proximity to the Little Killbuck Creek aquatic pathway are shown in Figure 6. The arrow heads on this figure indicate the direction of flow within the ditches overlaid on the FEMA floodplain (USGS, 2011a). The lateral extent of the Little Killbuck Creek aquatic pathway at the one percent annual recurrence interval flood is also evident in Figure 6 through its illustration of the expansive floodplains and complex network of ditches in proximity to the basin divide.
The headwater streams leading away from the site on the Ohio River side of the basin divide are Little Killbuck Creek and Repp Run. On the right side of Figure 6, Little Killbuck Creek flows toward the southwest where it is then joined by two branches of Repp Run in the bottom center of the figure, where it then starts flowing due south. On the Lake Erie side of the basin divide there is an intricate network of agricultural ditches. These ditches are connected to the West Fork East Branch of the Black River via Clear Creek, which drains the site toward the west and is part of an approximately 34.6 square mile (90 km2) watershed. This network of agricultural, or irrigation ditches is also connected to an unnamed tributary to the east of the study area that carries runoff from an approximately four square mile (10 km2) drainage area to the north. This network of ditches collects runoff and discharges to the north into the West Fork East Branch Black River. Typical dimensions of these ditches were approximately 15-20 feet (4.5-6 m) wide at the ground surface with a depth to channel bottom of about 8-10 feet (2-3 m) below grade.
The team next examined the topography of the area to see what barrier the slope of the land itself might offer to the spread of ANS between the basins. A shaded relief map showing elevations of the potential aquatic pathway and vicinity was created using ArcMap (Figure 7). Within
the agricultural area at the basin divide, the topography is generally flat as shown by the green to light green colored areas in Figure 7. The site is a low lying area between surrounding hills and has been subjected to glaciations in the past. The watershed divide crosses east to west across this flat area. The ditches in the crop field were constructed to promote drainage to remove runoff from the fields or to provide irrigation to those fields when necessary. This berm was breached in many areas by floodwaters as observed during the site visit following the 2-5 year annual recurrence interval flood event.
Berms have been built along the north side of the Little Killbuck Creek and a small portion of Repp Run to prevent the normal stream flow from entering the crop fields. The top of the berm along Little Killbuck Creek is at approximately 910 feet and the ground elevation of the crop fields is approximately 905 feet. In the area west of Franchester Road, the ground elevations are slightly higher, about 906 feet (OIT, 2011). The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) labels the flooded area as a Zone A, which is an area that floods with a one percent annual recurrence interval. Since detailed analyses were not performed for this area, no depths or base flood elevations are shown within this zone. However, by comparing the flooded area on the FIRM to the contours (the same vertical datum was used for the two maps), it was discovered that the one percent annual recurrence interval flood elevation is at approximately 913 feet. The FIRM shows that the berm, crop fields, Willow Road, Garden Isle Road, Franchester Road, and Swamp Road are underwater at the one percent flood event. The watershed divide, which runs through this area, is also underwater based on the FIRM (Figure 8 and Figure 9) (FEMA, 2011).
There are several wetlands in the area, most notably along Repp Run near Franchester Road and along Little Killbuck Creek near Interstate 75 and to the northeast (Figure 10). These are a mixture of freshwater emergent, forested, and scrub-shrub wetlands (Cowardin, et al., 1979). Based on area topography and land use (e.g., agricultural drainage ditches), it is highly likely that much if not all of the agricultural area currently being drained by the large network or drainage ditches north or Repp Run and Little Killbuck Creek would revert back to wetland area if active drainage were to cease.
22 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
Fig
ure
6.
Str
eam
s and d
itches
at
Litt
le K
illbuck
Cre
ek,
Ohio
, w
ith p
redom
inant
flow
direct
ions
indic
ate
d b
y arr
ow
s (U
SG
S,
2011
a).
Gre
at
Lake
s and M
issi
ssip
pi R
iver
Basi
n d
ivid
e
show
n b
y re
d-w
hite
line.
Base
imagery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
23
Fig
ure
7.
Colo
red r
elie
f m
ap s
how
ing e
leva
tions
at
the p
ote
ntia
l path
way
site
and s
urr
oundin
g a
rea.
Basi
n d
ivid
e s
how
n b
y re
d-w
hite
line.
Base
imagery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
24 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
Fig
ure
8.: F
EM
A F
IRM
Map 2
43D
, w
est
sid
e o
f pote
ntia
l path
way
show
ing R
epp R
un,
Cle
ar
Cre
ek,
and W
est
Fork
East
Bra
nch
Bla
ck R
iver
and F
ranch
est
er
Road a
rea.
(FE
MA
, 2011
). B
ase
imagery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
25
Fig
ure
9.
FE
MA
FIR
M M
ap 2
44D
, east
sid
e o
f pote
ntia
l path
way
show
ing L
ittle
Kill
buck
Cre
ek,
Ditc
hes,
railr
oads,
Will
ow
Road,
and G
ard
en I
sle R
oad.
(US
FW
S,
2011
). B
ase
im
agery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
26 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
Fig
ure
10.
Mapped w
etla
nds
from
US
FW
S N
atio
nal W
etla
nd I
nve
nto
ry (
US
FW
S,
2012).
Base
imagery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
27
The USGS StreamStats program calculates stream flow statistics and characteristics for designated water basins based on data from existing data-collection stations or provides estimates on basins where no station data is available (USGS, 2010). The data taken directly from this website is good for developing preliminary hydraulic calculations and for basic statistics for hydraulic sections of reports. The accuracy would have to be verified before it could be used for design or detailed site hydrologic and hydraulic analyses. Using this resource, the watersheds for the potential pathway location were sub-divided into five sub-basins to assist in determining if there is a hydrologic connection between the watersheds, and to help determine the frequency of such connections. The three sub-basins within the Black River Watershed were the West Fork East Branch Black River, Clear Creek, and the area ditches. The two sub-basins within the Killbuck Creek Watershed were the Little Killbuck Creek and Repp Run Watersheds. The sub-basin sizes chosen for this report were set with the most downstream point being located near a confluence of streams within the project site or at a point near the boundary of the study area. The quantities of flows represent a relative magnitude of flow from the contributing watershed and will change
based on the point chosen as the outlet. A summary of the flow statistics from these watershed sub-basins is presented in Tables 9-11.
FEMA has prepared a FIRM for Medina County, Ohio and incorporated areas. The original maps produced for that study, which include the Little Killbuck Creek potential pathway, are presented in Figure 8 and Figure 9 are are also represented by the flood outline earlier in Figure 6 (FEMA, 2011). The FEMA study that was completed on this specific site was not a detailed study and the maps do not provide one percent annual recurrence interval surface water elevations. However, a general outline of the flooded area for a one percent annual recurrence interval event is shown. Based on the imagery and the contours for the site, the one percent flood elevation is within the approximately 913-foot contour range. The top of the berm/dike along Little Killbuck Creek is at an elevation of approximately 910 feet. The FEMA study shows the berm/dike along Little Killbuck Creek covered by a one percent annual recurrence interval flood event and portions of the Great Lakes Basin and the Mississippi River Basin inundated on both sides of the dike.
Table 9: Mean Streamflow Statistics as calculated from USGS Streamstats (USGS, 2010). Flow data was collected for Little Killbuck Creek just upstream of its confluence with Repp Run, and flow data for the Black River Watershed was collected just upstream of the confluence of Clear Creek and West Fork Creek.
Killbuck Creek Watershed Black River Watershed
Monthly Mean FlowLittle Killbuck Creek Subbasin(ft3/sec)
Repp Run Subbasin(ft3/sec)
Clear Creek Subbasin(ft3/sec)
West Fork East Branch Subbasin(ft3/sec)
Ditch Subbasin(ft3/sec)
January Mean Flow 6.3 8.55 8.44 38.2 8.12
February Mean Flow 6.94 9.44 10.7 43.8 9.24
March Mean Flow 7.94 10.9 12.4 52.3 10.6
April Mean Flow 7.22 9.83 11.1 45.6 9.62
May Mean Flow 4.37 6.04 6.91 29.3 5.87
June Mean Flow 2.91 4.02 4.51 19.7 3.91
July Mean Flow 1.64 2.3 2.9 12.3 2.3
August Mean Flow 1.1 1.51 1.68 7.18 1.46
September Mean Flow 0.71 0.98 1.14 4.89 0.94
October Mean Flow 0.83 1.16 1.31 5.97 1.12
November Mean Flow 1.94 2.69 3.02 13.7 2.64
December Mean Flow 4.06 5.59 6.4 27.3 5.46
Mean Annual 4.16 5.7 6.37 27.5 5.61
28 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
During the site visit on May 25-26, 2011 there was a significant thunderstorm. Over a 24 hour period, 2.73 inches (6.9 cm) of rain fell on the site (National Weather Service, 2011). Comparing the field observations with the contours at this location, the water elevation from the flooding was estimated to be at about 908 feet. Several agricultural fields along Franchester Road were underwater from this recent rainfall event and are illustrated in Figures 11-13. Flood water was also observed flowing across the basin divide from flooded fields and roadside ditches through a culvert underneath Franchester Road (Figures 14-15).
The ODNR Division of Soil and Water Resources recommends using the published updated precipitation frequency estimates for the Ohio River Basin and surrounding states for estimating average recurrence intervals (NOAA, 2011a). The values given for location
N41.0261, W082.0399 are presented in Table 12. This data indicates that the observed 2.73 inches of rain over a 24-hour period is equivalent to between a two and five percent annual recurrence interval storm event.
The ditches within the Great Lakes Basin north of Little Killbuck Creek are connected at the north end of the site to an unnamed stream that flows from the east. The ditch system flows to the Great Lakes Basin, but there are also connections with the Mississippi River Basin particularly at the southern end of the study area near the intersection of Willow Road and Garden Isle Road, and just north of where Repp Run joins Little Killbuck Creek. These ditches are also used to hold water during dry time to irrigate the fields. It was noted by a local farmer that by opening control gates, water can pass from Little Killbuck Creek into these ditches. It was also observed during the field visit that the storm water was
Table 10: Peak Flow Statistics indicating maximum instantaneous flow that occurs on avgerage once in x years) (USGS, 2010). Flow data was collected for Little Killbuck Creek just upstream of its confluence with Repp Run, and flow data for the Black River Watershed was collected just upstream of the confluence of Clear Creek and West Fork Creek.
Killbuck Creek Watershed Black River Watershed
Peak FlowLittle Killbuck Creek Subbasin(ft3/sec)
Repp Run Subbasin(ft3/sec)
Clear Creek Subbasin(ft3/sec)
West Fork East Branch Subbasin(ft3/sec)
Ditch Subbasin(ft3/sec)
Peak flow – 2 yr 233 332 446 1120 356
Peak flow – 5 yr 371 542 763 1780 596
Peak flow – 10 yr 467 693 997 2250 771
Peak flow – 25 yr 588 885 1300 2830 994
Peak flow – 50 yr 676 1030 1530 3270 1160
Peak flow – 100 yr 766 1170 1760 3720 1330
Peak flow – 500 yr 971 1510 2310 4740 1730
Table 11: Basin Characteristics as calculated by USGS Streamstats (USGS, 2010).
Killbuck Creek Watershed Black River Watershed
Drainage Area 4.22 sq. mi. 5.81 sq. mi. 6.52 sq. mi. 28.1 sq. mi. 5.70 sq. mi.
Stream Slope 0.00422 ft/ft 0.00801 ft/ft 0.00650 ft/ft 0.00256 ft/ft 0.00972 ft/ft
% Storage 5.19 4.52 0.58 1.56 2.96
% Forested 21.6 21.6 32.2 25 20.2
Mean Annual Precipitation 36.3 in. 36.2 in. 36.1 in. 35.9 36.2
Peak flow – 500 yr 971 1510 2310 4740 1730
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29
Fig
ure
11.
Photo
refe
rence
loca
tions
and a
reas
where
roads
were
flo
oded a
fter
the s
torm
eve
nt
of
May
26,
2011
show
n in
blu
e.
Base
imagery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
30 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
Figure 12. Flooded field west of Franchester Road near basin divide. Photo by USACE looking southwest and taken from same position as the following figure.
Figure 13. Flooded field west of Franchester Road near basin divide. Photo by USACE looking west and taken from same position as previous figure.
Little Killbuck Creek Report
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31
Figure 14. Roadside ditch along Franchester Road. Photo by USACE.
Figure 15. Storm water in ditch along Franchester Road that cross the basin divide. Close-up view of roadside ditch shown in previous figure. Photo by USACE.
32 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
being pumped from this network of ditches within the Great Lake Basin into Little Killbuck Creek within the Mississippi River Basin (Figures 16 - 19).
Repp Run (Mississippi River Basin) was channelized along the south side of the berm where Repp Run flows east-southeast between Franchester Road and Willow Road. This largely wetland area was flooded at the time of the site visit from Repp Run overflowing its banks during this 2-5 percent annual recurrence interval storm event resulting in the flooding of the low area north of Willow Road (Figure 20).
Along the paved roads, there are roadside ditches for collecting storm water. These ditches also drain into the streams such as Clear Creek, Repp Run, and Little Killbuck Creek. It was observed that along Franchester Road these roadside ditches cross the divide and connect the streams (i.e., Repp Run and Clear Creek) within the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River Basins. During the field visit, stormwater flow between the basins was observed throughout this roadside ditch connection and in flooded fields (Figures 11-15). West of Franchester Road, Repp Run flows through a wetland. In this area it was observed during the site visit that the fields were flooded and surface water was flowing over the basin divide to both the Great Lakes Basin and the Mississippi River Basin (Figure 21).
The agricultural fields and one percent FEMA floodplain dominating the area of the Little Killbuck Creek aquatic
pathway are situated along a relatively low area along the profile of the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basin Divide that extends for a distance of approximately 3.5 miles (5.6 km) (Figure 22). This area of the basin divide is at least 30-50 feet (9-15 m) lower in elevation than the basin divide to the east and west of the pathway. Although a potential surface water connection would appear possible along most of the 3.5 miles (5.6 km) at the one percent flood event, the drainage ditches and levees throughout this area prevent a simple interpretation of exactly where along this 3.5 miles (5.6 km) water actually crosses the basin divide. Several cross sections were taken through this low area perpendicular to the basin divide to look more closely at the ground elevations where it appeared that storm water might be able to find a flow path between the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River Basins. Five cross sections were evaluated for this potential pathway: two near Franchester Road and three near the intersection of Willow Road and Garden Isle Road (Figure 23 and Figure 24). The morning after the storm event of May 25-26, 2011, the floodwater in the fields and flowing across Franchester Road was at an elevation of approximately 909 feet (277 m). The cross sections in Figure 23 indicate high elevations of between 910.5 – 911 feet (277 m), but these were not in the ditches and did not follow the low areas in the fields. For this pathway, the elevations in Figure 23 and Figure 24 are based on the USGS 10m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a vertical accuracy of +/- 1 foot (30 cm). It should be pointed out that the absolute vertical accuracy (specific elevation) is not as important as the
Table 12: Precipitation Frequency Estimates (NOAA, 2011a)
Average Recurrence Interval (yrs) 24 hour period (in.) Upper bound 90% confidence
(in.)Lower bound 90% confidence
(in.)
1 2.08 2.25 1.93
2 2.49 2.7 2.32
5 3.09 3.35 2.87
10 3.59 3.89 3.32
25 4.32 4.67 3.97
50 4.93 5.33 4.5
100 5.59 6.05 5.05
200 6.29 6.82 5.64
500 7.32 7.96 6.47
Little Killbuck Creek Report
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33
Figure 16. Area of Little Killbuck Creek at intersection of Willow Road and Garden Isle Road, looking north. Garden Isle Road is located in background to the left. The main channel of Little Killbuck Creek is along right side of photo looking upstream to the northeast. The area of bare soil in the center of this photo is the top of the berm along the north side of the creek that is being actively overtopped. Photo by USACE.
Figure 17. Same area of Little Killbuck Creek flooding at intersection of Willow Road and Garden Isle Road, but looking directly upstream of the creek (northeast). Photo by USACE.
34 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
Figure 18. Same location as previous figures at intersection of Willow Road and Garden Isle Road, but after the water receded. Photo also showing irrigation/draining culverts. Photo by USACE.
Figure 19. Same location as previous figures at intersection of Willow Road and Garden Isle Road, but after the water receded. Little Killbuck Creek is the right channel extending upstream to the northeast and the left channel is a drainage/irrigation ditch. Photo by USACE.
Little Killbuck Creek Report
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35
Figure 20. Field flooded with water from Repp Run (north of Willow Road). Photo by USACE.
Figure 21: Flooded wetlands west of Franchester Road near basin divide. Photo by USACE.
36 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
Fig
ure
22:
Pla
n v
iew
and s
urf
ace
ele
vatio
n p
rofil
e a
long t
he G
reat
Lake
s and M
issi
ssip
pi R
iver
Basi
n d
ivid
e a
t Litt
le K
illbuck
Cre
ek.
As
seen b
y th
e ‘P
rofil
e a
long H
UC
’ at
the
bottom
of
the f
igure
, th
e a
ppro
xim
ate
ly 3
.5 m
ile (
5.6
km
) agricu
ltura
l are
a s
its a
t a r
ela
tive lo
w p
oin
t alo
ng t
he b
asi
n d
ivid
e,
anyw
here
fro
m 3
0 t
o 5
0 f
eet
(9-1
5 m
) lo
wer
than t
he b
asi
n d
ivid
e t
o t
he e
ast
and w
est
of
the a
quatic
path
way.
Loca
tion o
f th
e c
ross
sect
ions
thro
ugh t
his
div
ide a
re in
dic
ate
d b
y gre
en a
nd y
ello
w d
ots
. B
ack
gro
und im
agery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
37
Fig
ure
23:
Pla
n v
iew
of
are
a n
ear
Fra
nch
est
er
Road (
gre
en d
ot
on F
igure
22)
show
ing t
wo f
oot
(61 c
m)
conto
urs
with
a v
ert
ical a
ccura
cy o
f +
/- o
ne f
oot
(30 c
m).
The r
ed-w
hite
lin
e is
the b
asi
n d
ivid
e,
with
cro
ss s
ect
ions
thro
ugh t
his
div
ide s
how
n o
n in
set
figure
s to
the le
ft in
dic
atin
g f
lat
topogra
phy
with
very
little
vert
ical r
elie
f, a
nd m
ost
ly c
on
-tig
uous
wetla
nd a
rea b
etw
een t
he b
asi
n d
ivid
e a
nd R
epp R
un t
o t
he s
outh
. B
ack
gro
und im
agery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
38 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
Fig
ure
24:
Pla
n v
iew
of
are
a n
ear
inte
rsect
ion o
f W
illow
Road a
nd G
ard
en I
sle R
oad (
yello
w d
ot
on F
igure
22)
show
ing t
wo f
oot
(61 c
m)
conto
urs
with
a v
ert
ical a
ccura
cy o
f +
/-
one f
oot
(30 c
m).
The r
ed-w
hite
line a
long t
he n
ort
h s
ide o
f Litt
le K
illbuck
Cre
ek
is t
he b
asi
n d
ivid
e,
with
cro
ss s
ect
ions
thro
ugh t
his
div
ide s
how
n o
n in
set
figure
s to
the
left in
dic
atin
g c
hannel o
f th
e c
reek
and t
he s
urr
oundin
g a
reas.
Back
gro
und im
agery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
39
relative, or point-to-point, vertical accuracy (terrain) when evaluating terrain at this pathway to try and predict hydrology. Point-to-point accuracy is much more important to understanding local surface water hydrology than the absolute elevation. Although the absolute elevation values may be slightly off from the true value (e.g., 600 feet above sea level), they tend to be off a comparable amount at adjacent points so that the terrain of the area is actually depicted with relative accuracy. The grid size used to create the DEM can also affect the accuracy of the DEM. The larger the grid cell size (10 m cells vs. 30 m cells), the less detailed the terrain appears and therefore the less accurately the DEM depicts the actual terrain. The largest grid size used at any of the pathway locations is 10 m cells with some areas having more detailed information. Even though the 10 m cell size does not depict every hummock or hollow in the terrain, it does provide sufficient detail regarding general terrain and relative elevations. At this site, the elevations are do not vary by much and the elevations of the area would not be likely prevent water from passing between the two basins.
The storm water at the intersection of Willow Road and Garden Isle Road was at an elevation of about 907 feet
the day after the storm event. As can be seen by the elevations in the cross sections through the basin divide, an elevation of 907 feet comes close to and at some points over the elevation of the basin divide (Figure 24). At the time of the May 26, 2011 field assessment, the storm water had already started receding as can be seen by the wet line on the road in Figure 25. The cross sections indicate that the difference in elevation between the divide and flood elevations is shallow, but in some areas is in the range of 1.5-2.0 feet (30-61 cm).
3.4 Groundwater Groundwater was taken into consideration as a part of determining the likelihood of a pathway existing due to the fact that groundwater can be a source of headwater to streams in upper portions of the basin divide or the source of baseflow in wetland areas. The state of Ohio has a network of observation wells for monitoring groundwater (ODNR, 2011). In 2011, there were four active wells in Medina County, four active wells in Wayne County, two active wells in Ashland County, and two active wells in Summit County. Wayne, Ashland,
Figure 25: Storm water at intersection of Willow Road and Garden Isle Road on May 26, 2011. Photo by USACE.
40 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
Fig
ure
26.
Neare
st g
roundw
ate
r w
ell
loca
tions
in v
icin
ity o
f Litt
le K
illbuck
Cre
ek
pote
ntia
l path
way
site
. B
ase
imagery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
41
and Summit Counties surround Medina County. The three wells closest to the potential aquatic pathway site are shown in Figure 26 and listed in Table 13.
Over the period of record (eight years), the water level in the Medina well MD-1A has fluctuated but remained relatively the same level at a depth between 20 and 30 feet (6-9 m) below the surface. The water level at Medina well MD-7 has shown a decline in the water level over the period of record (two years). It has dropped approximately three feet (0.9 m) to a depth of about 12 feet (3.7 m) . The water level at the Wayne County well (WN-7) has also fluctuated over the period of record (30 years) and has shown a general decline until it leveling off around 1992 where it has remained at a depth of around 25 feet (7.6 m). Ground water supply is likely helping to maintain baseflow in area streams throughout the year through springs and lateral subsurface flow.
3.5 Aquatic Pathway Temporal Characteristics
Characterizing the temporal variability of the pathway hydrology is an important aspect of understanding the likelihood of an ANS being able to traverse the basin divide at this location as flood events may coincide with species movement and reproduction patterns and abilities to survive and establish populations in various areas. The entire area of this potential aquatic pathway site (i.e., Little Killbuck Creek, Repp Run, Clear Creek, West Fork East Branch Black River) has been identified by FEMA to be an area that will be inundated with a one percent annual recurrence interval storm event. This information is based on an approximate study and not a
detailed study. Since the topography is so flat and low, water will pond in the fields for days. This is evident by the wetlands and ponds in the immediate vicinity (Figure 10). These wetlands and ponds could provide stopping, foraging, and staging points for water dependent species as evidenced by fish observed in the field irrigation ditches during the site investigation.
Flow in the agricultural ditches is controlled and they are used to convey excess water away from the fields or to provide water to them for irrigation. One of these ditches at bank full from recent storm activity can be seen in Figure 27. There are several ponds in the area in both basins. Standing surface water appears to be common and fluctuates with the ground water and precipitation. Flooding in this area is frequent and several of the roads in the area have permanent signage indicating “HIGH WATER”. Road areas that were flooded at the time of the site visit in May 2011 are shown on Figure 10. A local farmer reported that the largest flooding event that he could remember was in 1969 when the rainfall was around 12 inches (30 cm). Records indicate that the event he is referring to occurred on July 5, 1969. The rainfall was recorded at the Wooster EXP Station to be 12.79”, which is in excess of a 0.2 percent annual recurrence interval storm. There is very little uncertainty that water crosses over the divide at this site during storms of between a two and five percent annual recurrence interval and greater intensity.
3.6 Probability Aquatic Pathway Exists
The rating discussed in this section is only for the likelihood of an aquatic connection existing at this
Table 13: List of Groundwater Monitoring Wells Near Little Killbuck Creek Pathway Location.
County Well ID Lat/Long Period of Record
Medina: MD-1A N41.0283, W082.0158; 12/3/2002 Current
Medina: MD-7 N40.9947, W081.9306; 5/8/2009 Current
Wayne: WN-7 N40.9625, W081.8506; 11/24/1978 Current
42 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
potential pathway (P0) at up to a one percent annual recurrence interval storm. A surface water connection does exist between the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basins at the Little Killbuck Creek location, based on the following:
During a recent storm event from between a two and five percent annual recurrence interval storm in May 2011, surface water was observed passing between the two basins. Fields were flooded, roads were flooded, and roadside ditches were flooded.
The roadside ditches were continuous across the basin divide.
There are wetlands in the area that are on or in close proximity to the basin divide. This was particularly evident along Franchester Road and west of Avon Lake Road. These areas were observed as being flooded during the May 25-26 storm event.
There is a network of ditches that were constructed to manage storm water runoff in the crop fields
north of Little Killbuck Creek and to provide a means for crop irrigation. Water is transferred between the basins via these ditches by natural flooding or by pumps as the circumstances require.
Topography of the site is flat with very little relief, as evidenced by cross sections through the basin divide (12-digit HUC) showing elevation changes only in the range of 1-3 feet adjacent to the basin divide, or between the basin divide and the nearest stream. In some cases such as in adjacent wetlands, elevations away from the nearest streams were lower than the top of the stream bank.
FEMA floodplain mapping indicates the majority of the aquatic pathway area to be inundated at the one percent annual recurrence interval flood event.
The interagency pathway assessment team determined that an aquatic connection exists between the two basins at Little Killbuck Creek since there are streams capable of maintaining a surface water connection with tributaries in either basin continuously for multiple
Figure 27: Drainage and irrigation ditch along crop fields. Photo by USACE.
Little Killbuck Creek Report
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43
days from a ten percent annual recurrence interval flooding event. In addition, wetlands are also present that span parts of the basin divide and that are likely to become interconnected with streams on both sides of the basin divide from a ten percent annual recurrence interval flood event. Consequently, the probability of the existence of an aquatic pathway at Little Killbuck Creek is rated “medium” in either direction. .
This rating is considered “very certain” based on the following:
FEMA flood mapping indicates that a connection exists between the basins at the one percent annual recurrence interval flood event.
Field observation of interbasin flooding on May 26-27, 2011, correlated to just between a two and five percent annual recurrence interval flooding event.
Periodic agricultural pumping between the basins for the purpose of draining or irrigating fields.
Expansive wetlands along both sides of the basin divide in some areas.
The team rating form for the probability of an aquatic pathway existing for Little Killbuck Creek aquatic pathway, along with associated definitions of the criteria that were used, can be found in Attachment A for this report.
3.7 Aquatic Pathway Habitat
3.7.1 Terrestrial and Riparian Land Use
Historically most of the area at the pathway was likely wetland based on observed elevations in the area and the large amount of agricultural drainage ditches that are in use. The majority of the Little Killbuck Creek site is underlain by hydric or partially hydric soils (Figure 28), 18 percent of which are histosols or organic muck soils. Agriculture is the dominant land use within the
region. Due to the hydrology in the area, drainage ditches had to be excavated in order to convert this land from wetland for agricultural purposes (Figure 27). The altered drainage promotes the leaching of mobile organic compounds and carbonic acids into the drainage ditch system onsite. In addition to excess nitrate from increased decomposition, application of fertilizer contributes to free available nitrogen within this ecosystem. The end results are drainage ditches that are highly acidic, have seasonally elevated temperatures and eventually become eutrophic.
3.7.2 Aquatic Resources
While the majority of the pathway area is agricultural fields, a substantial portion also consists of a variety of wetland habitats (Figure 10 and Figure 21). This wetland ecosystem plays an important role in the life history of the many species that utilize its resources.
The Black River Watershed, just downstream of the potential pathway location within the Great Lakes Basin, drains an area of 470 square miles (1,217 km2) in north-central Ohio. The area is highly susceptible to erosion with predominantly agricultural land use (44 % row crops) and a glacial history that has left piles of till material as end moraines, which can result in elevation changes that increase stream gradients and add velocity to the streams. Two of these moraines are the Spencer and Defiance Moraines near the Great Lakes and Ohio River Basin divide (OEPA, 2008). The Black River Watershed is located along the historic eastern fringes of the Great Black Swamp, which used to extend from about this location west toward Detroid, Michigan. Most of the watershed is part of an Area of Concern (AOC) under the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement of 1978 and a Remedial Action Plan (RAP) was been developed with a list of several beneficial use impairments in the watershed, including degradation of fish and wildlife populations and benthos, eutrophication, and loss of fish and wildlife habitat (OEPA, 2008). Just downstream from the site within the Mississippi River Basin, the Killbuck Creek Watershed is a relatively linear, north-south oriented sub-basin of glacial origin. Killbuck Creek is a low gradient stream whose mainstem between the towns of Burbank and Killbuck drops only 2.11 feet per mile. Much of the
44 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
Fig
ure
28.
Hyd
ric
and n
on-h
ydric
soils
in t
he a
rea o
f in
tere
st (
US
DA
, 2012).
Back
gro
und im
agery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
45
Killbuck Creek Watershed consists of historically altered stream channel which are no longer maintained as trapezoidal ditches but have recovered many natural stream features (OEPA, 2011). There is also a general lack of bank erosion in the watershed with most of the banks being vegetated on both sides. The stream bed of the mainstem of Killbuck Creek is also comparatively free of silt and clay, indicating that sediments are likely being transported effectively through the watershed (OEPA, 2011). Further downstream in the Mississippi River Basin, the Muskingum River Watershed drains the largest watershed in Ohio at area of 8,051 square miles (20,852 km2). The river is used mainly for recreational boaters, with more than 5,800 boats using the river’s 90 mile (145 km) navigation system of ten locks and dams annually (OEPA, 2007).
3.7.3 Water Quality
On the Great Lakes side of the basin divide, water from the agricultural ditch network is connected to Clear Creek, a small headwater stream in the Black River Watershed. In the agricultural upper watershed area, the modification of stream channels (for drainage improvement), failing home sewage treatment facilities, row crop and livestock production have resulted in habitat degradation, sedimentation, and high nutrient and pathogen loadings. Despite these impacts to the aquatic habitat, the East Fork East Branch and East Branch Black River are designated warm water habitat (WWH) as defined by Ohio Water Quality Standards: Designated Aquatic Life Uses. This designation represents the principle restoration target for the majority of water resource management efforts in Ohio and indicates that these water bodies provide good quality habitat for aquatic fish and macroinvertebrate communities (OEPA, 1999). This area of the watershed was delisted from the Black River AOC in 2005.
The Black River mainstem, including the cities of Elyria and Lorain, is urban and industrial in nature. In this reach of the watershed, major municipal and industrial discharges, combined sewer overflows, and urban runoff result in high nutrient and organic loads, poor habitat quality, siltation, and low dissolved oxygen concentrations (OEPA, 1999). Of the 14.1 miles (22.7 km) assessed in 1997, 2.9 miles (4.7 km) of this reach
are fully attained, 5.7 miles (9.2 km) are partially attained, and 5.5 miles (8.8 km) did not attain the biological criteria for WWH. Low dissolved oxygen concentration derived from pollutant loadings is the primary cause of biological impairment in the reach of the Black River that is influenced by Lake Erie, with sediment contamination by heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) a secondary cause.
Despite the deteriorating aquatic habitat conditions as one goes from the network of agricultural ditches at the basin divide down the Black River Watershed to Lake Erie, the aquatic pathway itself provides suitable temporary habitat. In some cases, permanent habitat for a diversity of aquatic life including the ANS species of concern that have been identified for this pathway.
On the Mississippi River Basin side of the pathway location, water from the agricultural ditch network can be connected during flood conditions to Little Killbuck Creek, a small headwater stream in the Killbuck Creek Watershed. The watershed is also home to the largest network of wetlands in the state outside of the Lake Erie drainage. In 2009, OEPA assessed the chemical, physical and biological integrity of the Killbuck Creek Watershed (OEPA, 2011). The biological communities in Little Killbuck Creek were found to fully attain WWH, Coldwater Habitat (CWH), or dual EWH/CWH. Further downstream, the biological communities sampled in the Killbuck Creek mainstem fully attained WWH (OEPA, 2011). The full length of the Muskingum River in the watershed just downstream from Killbuck Creek is fully attaining WWH aquatic life use designation, reflecting a high amount of biological integrity as well with chemical and organic parameters within reference levels at most locations (OEPA, 2007). The high water quality of Killbuck Creek could allow for support of various ANS spreading upstream through that area. The water quality within the network of ditches at the pathway location is likely characterized by eutrophication, low levels of dissolved oxygen, and low volumes of water during the majority of the year. Although during a flood event water quality could remain sufficiently high for the survival and transfer of ANS.
46 Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
3.7.4 Aquatic Organisms
Despite the Black River being designated as a Great Lakes AOC due to water quality, it still provides drinking water for two communities and high-quality aquatic habitat for four state listed endangered, threatened or special concern aquatic animal species, including the recently sighted river otter and up to twelve state threatened and/or protected plant species (OEPA, 2008). Fish communities in the free flowing mainstem of the Black River improved in the 1990’s, although fish consumption advisories are still in place in areas for brown bullhead, freshwater drum, and common carp. High turbidity and sedimentation continue to impair habitat quality and fish communities in the Black River (USEPA, 2001).
A 2011 OEPA study found three state listed fish species within Killbuck Creek including the river redhorse (Moxostoma carinatum – Species of Concern), the bluebreast darter (Etheostoma camurum - Threatened), and the eastern sand darter (Ammocrypta pellucid -Species of Concern). The state endangered caddisfly (Brachycentrus numerosus) was also found in Killbuck Creek. Nine state listed freshwater mussels were found in Killbuck Creek, including the state and Federally endangered purple catspaw (Epioblasma obliquata obliquata). The other state listed freshwater mussels were the elktoe (Alasmidonta marginata - Species of Concern), purple wartyback (Cyclonaias tuberculata - Species of Concern), snuffbox (Epioblasma triquetra - Proposed Endangered), sharp-ridged pocketbook (Lampsilis ovate - Endangered), creek heelsplitter (Lasmigona compressa - Species of Concern), black sandshell (Ligumia recta - Threatened), round pigtoe (Pleurobema sintoxia - Species of Concern), and kidneyshell (Ptychobranchus fasciolaris – Species of Concern) (OEPA, 2011). Fish communities in the mainstem of Killbuck Creek also met the expected parameters for WWH at most sites sampled in the watershed, with marked improvements in the fish communities as compared to earlier studies in 1983 and 1993 likely due to improved wastewater treatment and management of nonpoint sources (OEPA, 2011).
Further downstream, in the Muskingum River, high quantities of catfish, bullheads, common carp, suckers, bass, and white bass can be found (Isbell, 1988). Observed rare fish species include: northern madtom
(Notorus stigmosus); mountain madtom (Notorus eleutherus); goldeye (Hiodon alosoides); pugnose minnow (Opsopoeodus emiliae); ohio lamprey (Ichthyomyzon bdellium), and several species of sensitive darters. Fish and macroinvertibrate surveys indicated healthy populations of several pollution sensitive species (OEPA, 2007). Historically, the Muskingum River has supported more than 63 unionid (freshwater mussel) species (Stansbery and King, 1983). Currently, two-thirds of these species are either extinct, extirpated, or in some way threatened (Gross, 2000). Among the endangered unionid species in the Lower Muskingum are the last remaining Ohio populations of the fanshell (Cyprogenia stegaria), monkeyface (Quadrula metanevra), clubshell (Pleurobema clava), Ohio pigtoe (Pleurobema cordatum), and butterfly mussels (Ellipsaria lineolata) (ILGARD, 2005).
If ANS are able of spread through the marginal to poor quality habitat of the agricultural ditches into the Mississippi River Basin, the aquatic pathway from this headwater area to the Mississippi River provides good quality temporary habitat, and in some cases, permanent habitat for a diversity of aquatic life including the ANS of concern that have been identified for this pathway.
3.8 Connecting Streams to Great Lakes and Mississippi or Ohio River
The surface water flow path from the study area at Little Killbuck Creek to both Lake Erie and the Ohio River is shown in Figure 29. Also illustrated in this figure is the location of each of the known potential obstructions to the upstream movement of ANS from their current known locations within either basin to the aquatic pathway site in Medina County, Ohio. There are multiple navigation locks and dams on the Ohio River. However, the presence of these dams on the Ohio River does not seem to provide a reliable obstacle to prevent the upstream passage of ANS based on the movement of Asian carp to date through the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. A schematic drawing of the Ohio River Lock and Dam system is presented in Figure 30. While there are no known obstructions on
Little Killbuck Creek Report
May 2013
47
The USACE Huntington District has identified great river fish passage as a project opportunity on the Muskingum River. Removal of dams and/or construction of fish passage ladders on the Muskingum River have been described as potential ecosystem restoration projects. These projects would allow for better movement and spawning opportunities for great river fish which have seen population declines since the lock and dam systems were constructed. Conversely, this may also aid the spread of ANS upstream towards the divide by decreasing the effectiveness of current obstacles in the river.
The National Inventory of Dams (NID) indicates that the East Bridge Street Dam in Lorain County, Ohio (Great Lakes Basin) has a maximum dam height of 12 feet (3.6 m), which is the dry height and not the height above the water level (NID, 2010; USACE, 2010). The FIS for Lorain County, Ohio and Incorporated Areas from 2008 indicates that the water level on the downstream side of the dam is approximately 1.5 feet (46 cm) below the top of the dam during the 10 percent annual recurrence interval flood, approximately three feet (1 m) above during the two percent annual recurrence interval flood, approximately five feet (1.5 m) above during the one percent annual recurrence interval flood, and approximately 11 feet (3.3 m) above for the 0.2 percent annual recurrence interval flood. For the other barriers, it shows the downstream water level above the top of the obstruction for the 10 percent, two percent, one percent, and 0.2 percent annual recurrence interval floods. Estimated water levels over the dams during modeled flood events from the FIS are presented in Figures 31 and 32.
Killbuck Creek or the Walhonding River within the Ohio River Basin, there are a series of ten locks and dams on the Muskingum River. Each of these dams have an associated lock structure adjacent to them which could allow the movement of ANS in both directions.
The ten non-operational locks and dams along the Muskingum River may prevent the upstream movement of an ANS during most flow conditions. The dams range in hydraulic height from 11.6 to 20.1 feet (3.5-6.1 m) during normal flow conditions. Flood profiles were developed by the USACE for the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District for the Muskingum River in 1936, which incorporates the proposed (now built) reservoirs in the basin (USACE, 1936). The study evaluated the effect of these non-operational navigation structures on water surface profiles given discrete flow frequencies. Given that the study was performed in 1936, it may not be consistent with current hydrologic and hydraulic conditions and/or computational procedures, but may offer good planning level insight to the relative frequency of submergence of these structures.
Based on the 1936 study, all of the locks and dams on the Muskingum River are overtopped by various amounts of floodwater on an annual basis (99 percent annual recurrence interval). The information presented in Table 14 compares the top (obstacle) elevation of each dam on the river against the approximate water elevation of different flow events. For example, at Lock and Dam No. 3 the one year storm would result in approximately 2.7 feet (82 cm) of flow over the top of the dam and the 100-year (one percent annual recurrence interval) event would result in approximately 20.6 feet (6.3 m) over the top of the dam. However, it is important to keep in mind that these are just estimates and not based on current hydrologic analysis and computational procedure. In addition, the amount of water flowing over the dam at a particular hydrologic event is not necessarily directly related to the ability of an ANS to pass through that flow. For example, at some undetermined flood event (which varies for each structure), there is likely to be enough flow over the dam such that there is not a large head difference between the upstream flow and the downstream tailwater, making it easier for a potential ANS to pass upstream of the structure.
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Fig
ure
29.
Surf
ace
wate
r flo
w p
ath
fro
m t
he a
quatic
path
way
to b
oth
Lake
Erie a
nd t
he O
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er,
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ng w
ith p
ote
ntia
l obst
ruct
ions
to t
he
upst
ream
move
ment
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NS
tow
ard
the
path
way
(NID
, 2010).
Back
gro
und im
agery
court
esy
of
Bin
g M
aps.
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Fig
ure
30.
Ohio
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er
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igure
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AC
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Probability of ANS Surviving Transit to Aquatic Pathway
Probability of ANS Establishing in Proximity to the Aquatic Pathway
Probability of ANS Spreading Across Aquatic Pathway into New Basin
The criteria for designating probabilities of high, medium, or low are provided under each category. In addition, a certainty rating is also assigned with each probability assessment. Certainty ratings associated with any given probability ratings include:
Very Certain (As certain as we will get with this effort)
Reasonably Certain
4 Aquatic Pathway Viability for ANS of Concern
The following subsections present the results of the biological evaluation of the likelihood of ANS spreading between the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basins via the Little Killbuck Creek aquatic pathway. The potential for species movement across the basin divide was assessed by the project team for the identified ANS of concern in accordance with the procedures outlined in the Methodology Section of this report. The potential for species transfer was characterized as high, medium or low for the following categories:
Probability that Pathway Exists (Section 3)
Probability of ANS being within Either Basin
Table 14: Potential Obstacles for ANS Movement Through the Muskingum River (USACE, 1936; NID, 2010).
Name RMObstacle Elev.(feet-NAVD88)
NIDHyd.Height(feet)
1 yr 2 yr 5yr 10yr 15yr 25yr 50yr 100yr
Lock and Dam No 2 5.7 593.5 17.5 603.1 606.7 611.9 614.5 616.8 619.5 623.5 627
Lock and Dam No 3 14 607.6 17.6 610.3 613.7 617.9 619 621.2 622.5 625.9 628.2
Lock and Dam No 4 25 617.0 17 623.9 626 629 630.8 632.4 634 637.1 640.1
Luke Chute lock and Dam (Dam No 5)
34 627.7 19.7 633.7 636 639.5 642 643.5 645.9 648.5 652.5
Stockport Lock and Dam (Dam No 6)
40 640.1 20 642 643 646 648.8 650.4 652.5 655.5 659.7
Malt Lock and Dam (Dam No 7)
49 650.2 15.2 656 658 661.1 663.8 665.8 667.7 670.5 674.5
Rokeby Lock and Dam (Dam No 8)
57 661.1 20.1 666 667 669.1 671.2 672.4 673.8 676.9 679.8
Lock and Dam No 9 68 672.1 18.5 679.8 680.5 682 684.2 685.9 687.2 690 692.2
Dam No 10 77 687.6 11.6 692 693.5 696.4 697.5 698 698.2 700.7 702
Lock and Dam No 11 85.5 699.3 15.3 704.8 705 705.9 706.8 707.7 709 710.2 714
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Fig
ure
31. A
mount
of
ove
rtoppin
g o
f dam
s betw
een 2
.5-4
.9 m
iles
(4-7
.8 k
m)
upst
ream
of
Wash
ingto
n A
venue,
ext
ract
ed f
rom
FE
MA
2008 F
IS f
or
Lora
in C
ounty
and I
nco
rpora
ted
Are
as.
52 Little Killbuck Creek Report
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Fig
ure
32. A
mount
of
ove
rtoppin
g o
f dam
s 2.5
mile
s (4
km
) upst
ream
of
Wash
ingto
n A
venue,
ext
ract
ed f
rom
FE
MA
2008 F
IS f
or
Lora
in C
ounty
and I
nco
rpora
ted A
reas.
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Occurrences of the bighead carp have been noted in the Upper Ohio River Basin including Moundsville, West Virginia and the Mahoning River in Ohio. In 1995 and 2000, individuals of bighead carp were recorded from Lake Erie at Sandusky, Ohio although there is no evidence that these are from establish populations (Kolar, et al., 2005). Black carp may be established in portions of the lower Mississippi River Basin and they have also been reported in the Mississippi River upstream of the mouth of the Ohio River. The known distribution of black carp is not as extensive as that of the silver and bighead carp. Asian carp species are established in the Ohio River Basin.
Team rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Parasitic Copepod:
The parasitic copepod has a life cycle in which the female adopts a parasitic phase on several fish species, including members of the minnow family, sunfish family, catfish family, and potentially other fish species. The common carp (Cyprinus carpio) is a frequent host of the parasite (Hudson and Bowen, 2002). The females can detach and re-attach to host species. The invasive copepod has been established in Lake Huron since 1994, but has not yet been recorded in Lake Erie. It has also been found in Crane Creek basin, a tributary draining directly to Lake Erie. The common carp is established in Lake Erie and in the Black River. While other host fish species are known to exist in the pathway system, the common carp was selected as the most likely host species because of the life cycle capabilities of the common carp and the likelihood that the common carp would use and survive in the pathway habitats. The males are free living but do not have the capability of moving upstream. Due to its inhabitance of the Crane Creek Basin, it is probable that the parasitic copepod could move to the pathway within 20 years.
Team rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Moderately Certain
Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia Virus (VHSv):
Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSv) can infect a wide range of host fish causing a variety of external
Moderately Certain (More certain than not)
Reasonably Uncertain
Very Uncertain (An educated guess)
A team rating is provided based on the professional collaboration of the interagency team of biologists.
These characterizations were completed by a team of agency biologists for each species under consideration. A team probability and certainty rating also is provided. The rating represents the most conservative probability assessment for each category considered. The forms describing the probability and certainty ratings from all agency professionals participating in this assessment is included at Attachment A.
4.1 Probability of the ANS being within either basin
General Considerations for Assigning Probability Ratings:
High - Target ANS exists on connected waterways in close enough proximity to be capable of moving to the aquatic pathway within 20 years.
Medium - Target ANS exists on connected waterways, but based on current proximity and mobility, is considered incapable of moving to the aquatic pathway within 20 years.
Low - Target ANS is not known to exist on a connected waterway.
Certainty ratings were applied as outlined above.
Asian Carp
Silver carp and bighead carp are established in the middle and lower Mississippi River Basin. Successful breeding populations seem to stop near Louisville, Kentucky.
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Northern Snakehead:
The northern snakehead was found in 2008 in Monroe, Arkansas (> 250 miles (402 km) from the Little Killbuck site, and further by stream mile), and has since established a reproducing population in that area. Although in a different basin, this species is also established in the Potomac River in Maryland and Virginia (USGS, 2011c).
Team Rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Threespine Sticlkeback:
The threespine stickleback is found in each of the Great Lakes and has been collected in some inland river systems (USGS, 2011c). Literature indicates this species prefers to live in smaller streams but may occur in a variety of habitat including lakes and large rivers (USGS, 2011c). The threespine stickleback was first encountered in lower Green Bay and the Lower Fox River (below DePere Dam) about 25 years ago, but has never been seen upstream from this area. Great Lakes populations of this species tend to be potamodromous (truly migratory but within fresh water only) and only enter the lower reaches of streams briefly during spring spawning.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Very Certain
Ruffe/Tubenose Goby:
The ruffe and tubenose goby are located within the Great Lakes and associated with river mouths and estuaries of large river systems entering the Great Lakes. To date, the ruffe has not been identified within Lake Erie, but the fish has extended its range rapidly and modeling predicts it will find suitable habitat in all five Great Lakes. Literature reviews and actual fish survey data have not documented the collection of the ruffe in smaller upstream tributaries (USGS, 2011c). The ruffe is an aggressive species that possesses the ability to feed in darkness, cold temperatures, and turbid conditions. The tubenose goby’s introduced range covers three Great Lakes including Lake Superior, Erie, and Huron (USGS, 2011c). It has been collected in the lower reaches of
and internal pathology including death of the host fish (WDNR, 2012). Variables such as host fish species and water temperature can impact the virulence of the virus. Seemingly healthy individuals that have been previously infected with VHSv can have chronic infections and be carriers of the disease (Skall, et al., 2005). This virus has been reported from throughout the Great Lakes Basin including Lake Erie (USGS, 2011c). Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus has been found in many species of fish including common carp and is active at water temperatures less than 60º F (15.5º C) (WDNR, 2012). The common carp is established in Lake Erie, as well as the rivers and streams leading to the Little Killbuck pathway. While other host fish species are known to exist in the pathway system, the common carp was selected as the most likely host species because of the life cycle capabilities of the common carp and the likelihood the common carp would use and survive in the pathway habitats.
Team rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Inland Silverside:
The inland silverside’s native range is eastern North America, including the Atlantic and Gulf Slopes (mostly near the coast) from Massachusetts to the Rio Grande drainage in Texas and southeastern New Mexico; north from the Mississippi River and major tributaries (mainly Arkansas and Red Rivers) to southern Illinois and eastern Oklahoma (Page & Burr, 1991). It is a marine species that ascends rivers and prefers estuaries, lagoons, brackish seas, and rivers (Fishbase, 2011). The inland silverside has been collected in 2003 in Mt. Carmel, Indiana which is in southwestern Indiana (USGS, 2011c). The species has also been collected in Illinois from Lake Baldwin, Lake of Egypt, Rend Lake, Cache River, Wabash River, and the Mississippi, Ohio, and Kankakee Rivers (Laird & Page, 1996). It is believed that the presence of the species in the Mississippi River in southern Illinois and in the lower Ohio River in Illinois and Kentucky are a result of natural dispersal (Fuller & Nico, 2012). These locations are greater than 250 miles (402 km) from the Little Killbuck site.
Team rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Relatively Certain
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Lake. The valvata was recorded in the 1990s and the first decade of the 21st century in Superior Bay in Lake Superior (Minnesota), Lake Michigan (Wisconsin), and Oneida Lake in the Lake Ontario watershed (New York) (Grigorovich, et al., 2005; Kipp and Benson, 2011b). The European stream valvata is found in freshwater lakes and streams. In its native range of Europe, western Siberia, and central Asia, this species has been found to tolerate a wide range of habitats including oligotrophic nearshore zones (Grigorovich, et al., 2005), sparsely vegetated lakes or sites dominated by Chara spp. and Potamogeton spp. (Van den Berg, et al., 1995; Van den Berg, et al., 1997), littoral habitats with high siltation rates (Smith et al., 1994), and lentic and stagnant waters or slow streams (Frank, 1987). The valvata is found in habitats with fine substrates (mud, silt and sand) – especially during hibernation, and aquatic macrophytes – for laying its egg masses (Grigorovich et al., 2005; Kipp and Benson, 2011b).
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Skipjack Herring:
The native range of skipjack herring includes the Mississippi River Basin from central Minnesota south to the Gulf of Mexico, and from southwestern Pennsylvania west to eastern South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas (USGS, 2011c). Skipjack herring have been collected in Lake Michigan, but it has not yet been determined if the species is established in the basin. From the years 1989-1993, three separate collections were made by Wisconsin commercial fisherman. Since they are a migratory species, dams often impede their reproduction. Records suggest that this species was much more abundant in the Upper Mississippi River Basin before it was impounded. Current range distribution maps suggest that the species is established within the main stem of the Muskingum River approximately 50 - 100 miles (80-161 km) away from the aquatic pathway (NatureServe, 2012).
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Very Certain
larger Great Lakes rivers and estuaries. The tubenose goby is a benthic species that consumes a wide variety of invertebrates (USGS, 2011c). They are found in the open waters and estuaries of slow flowing rivers and are often quite abundant in backwaters and lakes and seem to prefer dense vegetation. Tubenose gobies have exhibited a much slower rate of expansion in the Great Lakes than the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), also an invasive species in the Great Lakes and now located within both the Great Lakes Basin and the Mississippi River Basin.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Moderately Certain
European Fingernail Clam:
The European fingernail clam was first found in the Great Lakes Basin in Lake Ontario in 1924. It is considered to be established in Lakes Erie and Ontario and has been recorded in Lakes Michigan and Superior, Rice Lake (which is part of the Trent-Severn Canal system connecting Lake Huron and Lake Ontario), and Lake Huron, although it is very uncommon in Lake Huron (Herrington, 1962; Mackie et al., 1980; Mills et al., 1993; Mackie, 2000; Grigorovich et al., 2003, Kipp and Benson, 2011a). The European fingernail clam is found in freshwater lakes and slow-moving rivers and prefers eutrophic, vegetated shallow waters with high concentrations of magnesium, calcium, and bicarbonate (Kipp and Benson, 2011a). It generally lives in the sediment but can also be found among submerged vegetation instead of soft sediments (Watson and Ormerod, 2005). It often prefers more lentic habitats, but it cannot tolerate extremely high organic pollution nor does it tolerate desiccation well (Kipp and Benson, 2011a).
Team Rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Very Certain
European Stream Valvata:
The European stream valvata was originally introduced to Lake Ontario at the mouth of the Genesee River in 1897. In forty years it dispersed to Lake Erie and subsequently expanded its range to the St. Lawrence River, the Hudson River, Lake Champlain, and Cayuga
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are zooplanktivorous, while silver carp consume smaller phytoplankton and fine particulate organic matter (Williamson and Garvey, 2005; Dong and Li, 1994). However, sufficient forage is believed to be available for both species throughout the river systems downstream of the pathway, including the Muskingum, Walhonding, and perhaps Killbuck Creek. Forage abundance and diversity likely decreases moving upstream towards the pathway as water quality and flow volume decreases.
Adult black carp are primarily molluscivores. However, they will opportunistically consume a wide variety of food items (USFWS, 2002). Juvenile black carp have a diet more similar to silver and bighead carp, consisting primarily of zooplankton (USACE, 2011b). The diet of juvenile black carp may allow them to survive in areas unsuitable for adults. The habitat of black carp is very similar to the grass carp (Nico and Jelks, 2005). It is believed that black carp should be able to colonize the same areas of the United States where the grass carp have established (USFWS, 2002).
Juvenile, sexually immature Asian carp have been observed in the upmost reaches of small tributaries to large rivers attempting to pass over barriers, such as dams, to continue their upstream movement (D. Chapman-USGS, personal communication, September 12, 2011 and N. Caswell-USFWS, personal communication September 12, 2011). The gradient needed to prevent juvenile fish from moving up streams is unknown. Thus it is unclear if the gradients of the Muskingum River or Killbuck Creek are sufficient to prevent potential future upstream movement of young carp. It is important to note that young Asian carp tend to move laterally away from the river in which they were spawned and not back upstream (D. Chapman-USGS, personal communication, September 12, 2011). It has also been observed that Asian carp, as small as advanced fingerlings, have traveled up to 37 miles (60 km) though tributaries of the lower Missouri River. These tributaries were located laterally to the Missouri river segment in which these fish hatched (D. Chapman-USGS, personal communication, September 12, 2011). Adult, sexually mature Asian carp have occasionally been found in very small streams, which appear scarcely large enough to support the fishes at low water (D. Chapman, personal communication, September 12, 2011). The age of these fish when they arrived at these locations is unknown.
4.2 Probability ANS surviving transit to aquatic pathway
4.2.1 Probability of ANS Surviving Transit to Aquatic Pathway through Connecting Streams
High - Target ANS are established in relatively close proximity to location and have ample opportunity, capability, and motivation to successfully navigate through the connecting streams to arrive at the subject pathway within 10 to 20 years.
Medium - Target ANS are established at locations in close enough proximity to the location and have limited capability to survive passage through the connecting streams to arrive at the subject pathway within 20 to 50 years.
Low - Target ANS are not in proximity to the pathway, and/or it is highly unlikely that they could survive transit from current locations through the connectin streams to arrive at the subject pathway within next 50 years.
Asian Carp
Spawning of silver and bighead carp is initiated by rising water levels following heavy rains (Jennings, 1988; Verigin, 1978). Both species are strong swimmers and silver carp are capable of jumping considerable distances out of the water (up to 12 feet (3.6 m)). There are no obstacles in Little Killbuck Creek or Killbuck Creek that would permanently prevent the upstream movement of silver carp or bighead carp to the pathway location. Habitat present within most of Little Killbuck Creek and Killbuck Creek is not ideal for silver and bighead carp, which are native to and thrive in larger river systems, but it is not known to what extent the smaller size of these creeks may prevent the upstream movement of Asian carp to the pathway. Bighead carp
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Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia Virus
Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus has been found to infect common carp (USGS, 2011c). Within rivers, common carp move upstream to spawn in suitable habitat such as marshes and even drainage ditches. Common carp are strong swimmers that can reach sustained speeds of 1.3-3.9 feet per second (fps) [0.4-1.2 meters per second (mps)] and burst speed of 3.9-8.5 fps (1.2-2.6 mps). Though they cannot jump like members of the salmon family (maximum height six feet or 1.8 m), they can move upstream during moderate flow events. The common carp has been observed on both sides of the pathway and also within the agricultural drainage network (personal communication with land owner, May 26, 2011). It is expected that the common carp will continue to move to this area successfully. In order for successful movement through the pathway, at least a one percent flood event would need to occur.
Team Rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Inland Silverside
The inland silverside moves in large schools that can number in the thousands and they can travel far up streams and rivers, especially in southern part of their range (NatureServe, 2012). The species’ natural spread rate through the Mississippi River Basin is not known because they have been actively stocked in lakes. The average lifespan of the inland silverside is about 16 months, with few surviving their second winter (NatureServe, 2012). It is capable of producing 30,000 eggs per month (Stoeckel and Heidinger, 1988). As a relatively small fish (approximately five inches (13 cm) in total length at maturity), it is likely that this species would seek refuge from high water velocities during flood events, instead of attempting to move upstream. The available habitat data suggests the inland silverside will colonize within rivers and streams but are usually found in clear, quiet water over sand or gravel. Proximity to pathway is greater than 250 miles (402 km).
Team Rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Moderately Certain
The ability for Asian carp to survive transit upstream to Killbuck Creek is supported by the moderate levels of habitat and forage that would likely be provided by the Muskingum and Walhonding Rivers. Killbuck Creek could also likely support movement of juveniles and fry. However, it is believed that this group of fish has yet to establish any breeding populations above the McAlpine Pool on the Ohio River which is greater than 500 river miles (805 km) away. The nature of the Upper Ohio River is vastly different from the Lower Ohio River where successful populations have established. The lower river provides many backwater areas that Asian carp prefer for habitat. In general, the upper river is characterized by narrower valleys, smaller floodplains, and less backwater areas. This lack of preferred habitat on the Upper Ohio River may be the obstacle that cannot be overcome by Asian carp (D. Duane-USGS, J. Thomas-ORSANCO, and J. Stark-The Nature Conservancy, pers. Communication, June 2011). Asian carp have accordingly been assigned a medium rating for ability to survive transit to the pathway.
Team rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Parasitic Copepod
The parasitic copepod has been found on common carp. During spring run-off events in April and May, common carp move into the shallow waters of bays and river systems to spawn. Within the rivers, common carp move upstream to spawn in suitable habitat such as marshes and even drainage ditches with as little as or less than one foot (30 cm) depth of water. Common carp are strong swimmers and though they cannot jump like members of the salmon family, they can move upstream during moderate flow events. The common carp has been observed on both sides of the pathway and also within the agricultural drainage network (personal communication with land owner, May 26, 2011). The common carp has successfully moved to these points previously. Common carp are a very resilient species and are capable of surviving a wide range of water quality parameters. It is expected that the common carp will continue to move to this area successfully.
Team rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
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inundated during high flow events, the stickleback may then have ample opportunity to move upstream. However, it is likely that this species would seek refuge from higher velocities instead of expending energy attempting to move upstream. The fish could also potentially survive in emergent wetland and ditch areas during a storm runoff event as they are tolerant of low dissolved oxygen down to two parts per million (ppm) and temperatures up to 68°F (20°C) (Wootton, 1976). It is likely though that sufficient forage and habitat is available throughout the Black River and its tributaries for the threespine stickleback.
Team Rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Ruffe/Tubenose Goby
The ruffe prefers deep waters of lakes and pools of rivers, usually over sand and gravels but has a tolerance for different habitats and environmental conditions (Gray and Best, 1989). The ruffe has a high reproductive rate and spawns in clean water. Females produce up to 200,000 eggs in the first batch, and up to 6,000 eggs per subsequent batch (Global invasive species database, 2012). Ballast water transport has been the key means for the spread of ruffe in the Great Lakes (USFWS, 1996). Natural rates of dispersion are not well known and ruffe have not spread beyond Green Bay in the nine years since its detection in that area, and populations have been trending down (Bowen and Goehle, 2011). The ruffe’s ability to swim upstream during high flow events and move over dams is questionable, especially since it prefers still or slow moving water (Fishbase, 2011). The tubenose goby is found in the open waters and estuaries of slow flowing rivers. The ability of the goby to swim upstream during high flow events and move over dams is questionable but appears to be more capable of living in more varied types of riverine habitat than the ruffe. The dams and waterfalls in the Black River Watershed should be sufficient in impeding movement of both species at normal and low flows. However, as these obstacles become inundated during high flow events, both species may have opportunity to move upstream at those times. However, it is likely that this species will seek refuge from high velocities instead of expending energy attempting to move upstream.
Northern Snakehead
The northern snakehead is an incredibly resilient species. The northern snakehead utilizes specialized structures (suprabranchial organ and a bifurcate ventral aorta) that permits aquatic and aerial respiration (Ishimatsu and Itazaw 1981, Graham 1997). This species thrives in stagnant, oxygen depleted back-waters and marshes (Courtenay, Jr. and Williams, 2004). The northern snakehead likely possesses the ability to move to the Little Killbuck site. However, its preferred habit is not flowing waters, which will likely slow its spread up the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Unlike the Asian carps, northern snakeheads do not make long upstream spawning runs and, as a result, are not likely to spread quickly through the Mississippi River Basin without the aid of anthropogenic means. Despite its preference for stagnant, oxygen-depleted back waters and marshes, the northern snakehead has been consistently caught by anglers in the Potomac River near Great Falls, Virginia during spring high flow events (J. Newhard-USFWS, personal communication, December 22, 2011). Based on data from external tags recaptured by anglers, in rare instances, northern snakehead have been found to move as far as 50 river miles (80 km) upstream at a rate of approximately one mile (1.6 km) per day. This extensive movement typically occurs in the spring with the fish returning back downstream to slower moving water in the summer (J. Newhard-USFWS, personal communication, December 22, 2011). The lack of backwater and marsh areas in the Upper Ohio, Muskingum, and Walhonding Rivers may impede the movement of the snakehead to the pathway.
Team Rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Threespine Sticlkeback
The threespine stickleback has been found in the Great Lakes and in smaller river systems. Its close proximity in the Great Lakes and particularly Lake Erie indicate potential for access and transfer of this species to the Mississippi River Basin via the Little Killbuck Creek aquatic pathway. The dams and waterfalls in the Black River Watershed should be sufficient in impeding movement of the threespine stickleback at normal and low flows. However, as these obstacles become
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Team Rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
European Fingernail Clam
The European fingernail clam has been found in the Great Lakes and in smaller river systems. Its close proximity in the Great Lakes and particularly Lake Erie, indicates that it is an ANS of concern for the Little Killbuck Creek aquatic pathway. The following are the obstacles to upstream movement within the Black River:
Dam (Elyria – Chestnut Ridge Rd) N41.341, W082.090
Dam OH01954 (Elyria – E. Bridge St.) N41.369, W082.098
Waterfalls (Elyria – Washington St) N41.369, W082.107
Waterfalls (Elyria – Cascade/Elywood Pk) N41.373, W082.109
Dam (Elyria – Spring Valley Golf Club) N41.397, W082.096
These should be sufficient at impeding upstream movement of the European fingernail clam at normal and low flows. Even though these obstacles become inundated during high flow events, the limited ability of this species to move upstream unaided results in a low probability that this species will be able to make it from its current location to the pathway unaided. It is likely that sufficient habitat is available throughout the Black River and its tributaries for the European fingernail clam. However, these obstacles still make it highly unlikely that the European fingernail clam will be able to make it to the pathway unaided.
Team Rating: LowTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
European Stream Valvata
The European stream valvata has been found in the Great Lakes and as mentioned previously can tolerate a wide range of habitats including lakes, ponds, rivers,
small streams, canals, and ditches (Cleland, 1954; Grigorovich, et al., 2005; Kipp and Benson, 2011b). Its close proximity in the Great Lakes and particularly Lake Erie, indicates that it is an ANS of concern for the Little Killbuck Creek aquatic pathway. The same obstacles in the Black River listed for the European fingernail clam also apply for the European stream valvata.
These should be sufficient at impeding upstream movement of the European stream valvata at normal and low flows. Even though these obstacles become inundated during high flow events, the limited ability of this species to move upstream unaided results in a low probability that this species will be able to make it from its current location to the pathway unaided. This is reinforced by the fact that the dispersal of the valvata in the Great Lakes has been restricted and characterized by a slow rate of spread during the first 100 years of its colonization (Grigorovich, et al., 2005). It is likely that sufficient habitat is available throughout the Black River and its tributaries for the European stream valvata. However, these obstacles still make it highly unlikely that the European stream valvata will be able to make it to the pathway unaided.
Team Rating: LowTeam certainty rating: Moderately Certain
Skipjack Herring
Skipjack herring are a migratory species found in larger rivers, often in areas of swift current. In Ohio this species is only found in the Ohio River and its larger tributaries, particularly the Scioto River and Muskigum River (USGS, 2011c). Skipjack herring are strongly migratory within rivers and prefer fast flowing water where they are renowned for leaping. They are found in clear to moderately turbid waters in large rivers and reservoirs usually within the current over sand or gravel (Page and Burr, 1991). Skipjack herring feed in large schools with adults feeding on other herring species such as the threadfin shad, the gizzard shad and young of the year herring species, while the juveniles feed on dipterans and other aquatic insects. Since skipjack herring tend to prefer large fast flowing rivers, it is unlikely that they would move upstream of their current range in the mainstem Muskingum River into the smaller, more turbid, tributaries leading the Little Killbuck pathway. Despite
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and/or it is highly unlikely that they could survive transit from current locations through a non-aquatic pathway to arrive at the subject pathway within next 50 years.
Asian Carp, Parasitic Copepod, VHSv, Inland Silverside, Northern Snakehead, Threespine Stickleback, Ruffe, Tubenose Goby, and Skipjack Herring:
Since the Little Killbuck site is an active farm consisting of interconnected drainage ditches, it is not likely that fishing or boating would occur at or relatively near this location as the area is in private ownership. Access by the general public is limited to vehicular traffic through and around the site. Many species of snakehead, including the northern snakehead, have been popular aquarium fish. However, in 2002 the import and interstate transport of northern snakehead was banned without a permit from the USFWS (www.anstaskforce.gov). However, if the northern snakehead were released in the immediate vicinity of the divide, on either side, it is likely the fish could survive and establish a viable population in the area. Considering these limitations, it is highly unlikely that these species will arrive at the divide by anthropogenic means, such as livewell, bait bucket, or aquarium releases.
Team Rating: LowTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
European Fingernail Clam:
It is believed that transport by hard ballast has aided in the movement of the European fingernail clam in the past. Hard ballast is not commonly used anymore and the tributaries of the Black River are too small for commercial vessels. Thus the most likely form of transport today would be by recreational boating. However, the European fingernail clam does not tolerate desiccation well and the pathway is approximately 40 miles (64 km) from Lake Erie which greatly lowers the chance of any clams being alive if they were attached to a boat or on vegetation that was attached to a boat or trailer. In addition, fishing and boating are relatively uncommon in the vicinity of Clear Creek, thus it is highly unlikely that the species will arrive at the divide by anthropogenic means. It also has been shown that
the connectivity of the Walhonding River (and Killbuck Creek) to its native range further down the Ohio River Basin, the skipjack herring has never been recorded in that drainage. This is likely due to the affinity of the fish to large river habitat. The Walhonding River likely does not contain suitable habitat to allow for a successfully breeding population. As noted by Trautman (1981), “it is absurd to expect this deep- and swift-water inhabiting species to migrate across Ohio through the sluggish canals when it does not penetrate far inland in the largest unobstructed streams in the Ohio drainage.”
Team Rating: LowTeam certainty rating: Moderately Certain
4.2.2 Probability of ANS Surviving Transit to Aquatic Pathway through Other Means
The ratings in this section do not influence the overall pathway rating outlined in this report and are only included to point out other potential pathways (e.g., anthropogenic) that may be important to different audiences. Any further analysis of non-aquatic pathways and vectors outside of this study should develop a separate list of ANS, which will likely differ from those which might exploit the aquatic pathway on their own.
General considerations for assigning probability ratings:
High - ANS are established in relatively close proximity to the location and have ample opportunity, capability, and motivation to successfully navigate through a non-aquatic pathway to arrive at the subject pathway within 10 to 20 years.
Medium - ANS are established at locations in close enough proximity to the location and have limited capability to survive movement through a non-aquatic pathway to arrive at the subject pathway within 20 to 50 years.
Low - ANS are not in proximity to the pathway,
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the common toad (Bufo bufo) can aid in transporting the European fingernail clam to new waters in Europe (Kwet, 1995; Petkeviciutie, et al., 2004). The liklihood that the European fingernail clam could be transported by amphibians has not been demonstrated in the Great Lakes and would likely be relatively low. Thus, it is also highly unlikely that the clam will be transported to the pathway by other natural means. If the European fingernail clam were dumped into Little Killbuck Creek, it is likely they could then move downstream to suitable habitat.
Team Rating: LowTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
European Stream Valvata:
It is believed that shipping and the use of marsh grasses in packing enabled the European stream valvata to be introduced to the Great Lakes in the past (Mills, et al., 1993). Subsequent range expansion may have occurred via natural dispersal, while more recent records of the 1990s and the first decade of the 21st century may have been aided by human-mediated dispersal in ships and via canals (Grigorovich, et al., 2005). The tributaries of the Black River are too small for commercial boats. Thus the most likely form of transport today would be by recreational boats and trailers. European steam valvata has been shown to be tolerant of desiccation. However, since fishing and boating are relatively uncommon in the vicinity of the Clear Creek, it is highly unlikely that the species will arrive at the divide by anthropogenic or other means. If European steam valvata were dumped into Little Killbuck Creek, it is likely they could move downstream to suitable habitat.
Team Rating: LowTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
4.3 Probability of ANS Establishment in Proximity to the Aquatic Pathway
General Considerations for Assigning Probability Ratings:
High - Sources of food and habitat suitable to the ANS are plentiful in close proximity to support all life stages from birth to adult, abiotic conditions align with native range, and there are no known predators or conditions that would significantly impede survivability or reproduction.
Medium - Limited and disconnected areas and sources of food and habitat suitable to the ANS are available in proximity, abiotic conditions are within latitude limits of native range, but only a portion of the healthy individuals arriving at the location can be expected to effectively compete and survive.
Low - Habitat and abiotic conditions in proximity are outside the range where the target ANS has been known to survive; there is very limited available habitat area suitable for ANS cover, sustainable food supply and reproduction; or native predators or competition with native species would likely prevent establishment of a sustainable population.
Asian Carp
Silver and bighead carp are fast growing species that are capable of surviving in a wide range of water temperatures and reproducing quickly, provided suitable habitat is available. Life history habitat requirements generally include diverse needs for current areas, backwater habitats, deep overwintering holes, and other habitat types needed for survival (Nico and Jelks, 2005). Successful spawning and recruitment is unlikely and would prevent establishment of actual populations at the divide, as all species of Asian carp require lowland rivers to complete their life cycles (Nico and Jelks, 2011). Bighead and silver carp need 35-40 miles (56-64 km) of open river to successfully spawn (Jennings, 1988; Verigin, 1978; Nico and Jelks, 2011). Furthermore, it is believed that silver and bighead carp require sufficient flow to keep fertilized eggs suspended for successful reproduction (Gorbach and Krykhtin, 1980). Neither of these habitat requisites for population establishment appear to be adequately met in the vicinity of the Little Killbuck Creek location. Although it is unlikely that adults would survive long periods of time within the
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agricultural drainage network due to poor water quality and water volume, there is uncertainty about the ability of juvenile Asian carp to reach the pathway and survive since they have been observed in the uppermost reaches of small tributaries to large rivers attempting to pass over barriers, such as dams, to continue their upstream movement, and adult Asian carp have been found in very small streams with very low water (D. Chapman-USGS, personal communication, September 12, 2011;N. Caswell- USFWS, personal communication September 12, 2011). As a result, a rating of medium was assigned.
Team Rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Parasitic Copepod
The parasitic copepod is very capable of persisting in eutrophic and polluted waters. The copepod demonstrates a rapid reproductive cycle and is capable of utilizing many different host species. It is highly likely that the copepod would be successful in establishing in and adjacent to the pathway at Little Killbuck Creek.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia Virus
Survival and reproduction of common carp as a potential carrier of VHSv is considered high at this location during the spring. During spring runoff, the wetland divide and connecting ditches/streams would provide the necessary habitat for occupation of any VHSv carrier/host fish species, at least temporarily. The virus is capable of persisting outside of a host for several days when water temperatures are 37ºF - 54ºF (2.8ºC - 12.2ºC). It also demonstrates a rapid reproductive cycle and is capable of utilizing up to 28 known fish species in the Great Lakes Basin, including common carp (WDNR, 2012). However, the higher water temperatures that likely occur in the summer months at the Little Killbuck pathway site might prevent the establishment of VHSv during that time. It is highly likely that VHSv would be successful in establishing within fish populations already in and around the Little Killbuck pathway.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Moderately Certain
Inland Silverside
As a size-selective, planktivore, the inland silverside relies primarily on sight for feeding, which could be limited within and around the wetlands and drainage ditches at the divide (Elston and Bachen, 1976). Spawning occurs in shallow water in areas with abundant vegetation, and includes all forms of plants, including dead leaves, tree roots, algal mats, or rooted aquatic plants of marshes (Hildebrand, 1922; Weinstein, 1986). Food habits of the inland silverside include: planktivore; particulate feeder; size-selective picker, and the main food item is zooplankton (Saunders, 1959; Goldstein and Simon, 1999). Stomachs of adults in west Tennessee contained food items including midge larvae, mayfly larvae (Hexagenia), and fallen terrestrial insects, including Homoptera, Hymenoptera (Etnier and Starnes, 1993). Morris (1982) reported that inland silversides collected from Lake Conroe, Texas, fed mostly on zooplankton at all sizes, and major food organisms in the diet were from the following groups: Sididae, Chydoridae, Ceriodaphnia, Bosmina, Cyclopoida, nauplii, and Ostracoda. Species fed predominately upon cladocerans (60 percent of total number of food organisms, with largest category, Sididae, representing 32 percent). Bettoli et al. (1991) reported consumption of fish eggs, in Lake Conroe, Texas. Considering the dietary range of this species, it is reasonable to conclude that a population could be established in close proximity to the pathway.
Hubbs et al. (1971) inferred that the native inland range for the inland silverside does not extend beyond the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers because it cannot withstand winters farther north. Richards (1977) however showed that the inland silverside can survive for at least two weeks at 34.7°F (1.5°C). Stoeckel and Heidinger (1988) demonstrated that inland silversides can be maintained over winter in aquaculture systems at temperatures above 59°F (15°C), when they were fed a prepared diet. They also demonstrated that inland silversides have a high mortality during extended periods of cold during the winter in unheated ponds and reservoirs. Overwintering mortality in the 80-90 percent range has been reported for the inland silverside in Rhode Island waters (Bengtson, 1982). The turbid water in the
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event occurred and the fish could then pass into the ditch network and then be pumped directly into Little Killbuck Creek on the Mississippi River Basin side of the divide.
Team Rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Moderately Certain
Ruffe/Tubenose Goby
The ruffe is an aggressive species that possesses the ability to feed in darkness, cold temperatures and turbid conditions. The tubenose goby is a benthic species that consume a wide variety of invertebrates (USGS, 2011c). They are often quite abundant in backwaters and lakes and seem to prefer dense vegetation. Clear Creek is unlikely to provide sufficient habitat for either species. Furthermore, survival of a viable, reproducing population of ruffe and tubenose goby within the agricultural ditch network may be unlikely due low water quality and high temperatures in summer months. However, the presence of active agricultural pumping and irrigation in these ditches between Clear Creek and Little Killbuck Creek makes a low rating for this element more uncertain, and so a medium rating was assigned.
Team Rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Moderately Certain
European Fingernail Clam
The European fingernail clam often prefers somewhat eutrophied, more lentic habitat and has been sampled from water with temperatures ranging from 35 – 77° F (~2 – 25° C) (Berezina, et al., 2007; Kipp and Benson, 2011a). The European fingernail clam also has a high capacity for anaerobiosis and is able to survive anoxic conditions for around 400 days at 32° F (0°C) and for nine days at 68°F (20°C) (Heinonen, et al., 1997; Kipp and Benson, 2011a). The clam prefers hard waters with high magnesium, calcium, and bicarbonate concentrations and is found on fine sand, mud, silt, organic matter, and sometimes on gravel (Kipp and Benson, 2011a). The European fingernail clam is mainly a filter feeder feeding on diatoms and other types of phytoplankton, but can also feed on detritus from the substratum (Dussart, 1979; Kipp and Benson, 2011a). Survival of a viable, reproducing population of the European fingernail clam within the agricultural ditch network at the aquatic pathway may be unlikely due to
agricultural ditches and connecting streams may severely limit the ability of this species to forage, but Little Killbuck Creek does lie within the latitudinal boundaries of the inland silversides’ native range thereby potentially limiting any effect freezing temperatures might have to prevent them from overwintering.
Team Rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Northern Snakehead
The northern snakehead’s native range (latitude 24-53°N) and temperature tolerance 32–86º F (0-30°C) indicates a species that, if introduced, could establish populations throughout most of the contiguous United States (Courtenay, Jr. and Williams, 2004). Northern snakeheads are naturally aggressive predators that could easily acclimate to the conditions in and around the Little Killbuck site as long as there is an ample food supply, which appears to be the case. The snakehead’s preference for shallow aquatic and wetland habitats, coupled with its ability to breathe air, make it more possible for this species to colonize the wetlands and ditches at the divide location. It still may succumb to winter freeze-out, but it does have the ability to survive under the ice. They can be very opportunistic in their feeding habits, preying on everything from insect larvae to fish, frogs, and crustaceans. Northern snakeheads prefer shallow ponds and marshes with aquatic vegetation (USGS, 2011c). This is similar to the aquatic habitat adjacent to Little Killbuck. Additionally, northern snakeheads aggressively defend their nest and young fry, reducing predation on young snakehead by other fish.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Threespine Sticlkeback
As a visual predator, the turbid waters of the network of agricultural ditches may be unsuitable for the threespine stickleback (Walker, 1997). Survival of a viable, reproducing population of the threespined stickleback within the agricultural ditch network may be unlikely due low water quality and high temperatures in summer months. However, Clear Creek may provide sufficient habitat for occupation of this species until a suitable storm
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Smiley, et. al 2008).
Team Rating: LowTeam certainty rating: Moderately Certain
4.4 Probability of ANS Spreading Across Aquatic Pathway into the New Basin
General Considerations for Assigning Probability Ratings:
High - Sources of food and habitat suitable to the ANS are available, and the species has demonstrated capabilities to significantly expand range from locations where initially introduced.
Medium - There are limited sources of food and suitable habitat, and/or the species has demonstrated limited ability to spread significant distances beyond areas where it has been introduced.
Low - There are severely limited sources of food and suitable habitat, and/or the species has demonstrated very limited ability to spread beyond areas where it has been introduced.
Asian Carp
If Asian carp reach the basin divide and surface water connections permit, it is highly likely that they would be able to spread through the aquatic pathway into the Great Lakes Basin. Asian carp have demonstrated exceptional capabilities of spreading through large river systems, and will likely continue to do so.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Very Certain
Parasitic Copepod:
During the periodic surface water connections between the basins at Little Killbuck Creek, it is likely that a common carp hosting the parasitic copepod could
high organic concentrations from the adjacent farming operations, high temperatures, and low water levels in summer months. High levels of organics from hydric muck soils coupled with high seasonal water temperatures and potential for extended periods of drying would be detrimental to establishment of a viable population within the agricultural ditch network and wetlands adjacent to Clear Creek. However, Clear Creek may provide sufficient habitat for occupation of this species in close proximity.
Team Rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Moderately Certain
European Stream Valvata
The European stream valvata is tolerant of a wide range of conditions in both lotic and lentic habitats and has been shown to be relatively insensitive to organic pollution (Mouthon, 1996). The European stream valvata has been found at sampling sites with temperatures ranging from 52-91°F (11-33°C) and in waters with mean temperature ranging from 42-62°F (5.5-16.5°C) (Gerard, 2001; Sereflisan et al., 2009). Densities of this species have been documented as increasing during a heat wave when water temperatures reached 85° F (29.5°C) and exceeded 77° F (25°C) for 75 days (Mouthon and Daufresne, 2006). The stream valvata is a generalist, grazing on epiphytic algae and detritus, and in more eutrophic environments is capable of filter feeding on suspended organic matter and algae (Grigorovich, et al., 2005). The European stream valvata can also rasp off pieces of aquatic vegetation (Fretter and Graham, 1978). Survival of a viable, reproducing population of the European stream valvata within the agricultural ditch network is possible given its tolerance to a wide range of habitat conditions and higher temperatures. In addition, Clear Creek may provide sufficient habitat for occupation of this species in close proximity.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Moderately Certain
Skipjack Herring
Survival of a viable, reproducing population of skipjack herring within the agricultural ditch network may be unlikely due this species being a visual predator, the turbid conditions of the agricultural ditches, low water quality, and high temperatures in summer months (USGS, 2011c;
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events water is pumped from these agricultural ditches into both basins. A storm event as minimal as a two to five percent annual recurrence interval storm results in significant portions of this site being inundated and FEMA maps display the entire site as inundated from a one percent annual recurrence interval storm event. Considering these factors, it would be possible for the inland silverside to transfer across the basin divide via the agricultural drainage ditches if the frequency between significant storm events was within a timeframe that would allow their survival within this system. In addition, roadside ditches along Franchester Road span the divide and connect both basins via Repp Run and Clear Creek. The results of the storm event witnessed during the site visit describe this area as being inundated with water flowing across the divide.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Northern Snakehead:
The habitat at the pathway itself consists of a series of inter-connected, sparsely vegetated agricultural drainage ditches which link the Mississippi River Basin with the Great Lakes Basin. It is likely that the northern snakehead could survive in this system and transfer across the basin divide under the proper flooding conditions. A conversation with the farmer/landowner in May, 2011 identified that he has seen common carp within the agricultural drainage ditches. During storm events, water is pumped from these agricultural ditches into both basins. A storm event as minimal as a two to five percent annual recurrence interval storm results in significant portions of this site being inundated and FEMA maps display the entire site as inundated from a one percent annual recurrence interval storm event. Considering these factors, it would be possible for the northern snakehead to transfer across the basin divide via the agricultural drainage ditches if the frequency between significant storm events was within a timeframe that would allow their survival within this system. In addition, roadside ditches along Franchester Road span the basin divide and connect both basins via Repp Run and Clear Creek. The results of the storm event witnessed during the site visit describe this area as being inundated and water flowing across the divide. As an air breather that has even been known to move
spread beyond the pathway to the Mississippi River Basin. The female copepod can detach and re-attach to another host fish. The time it takes and how often this happens is not certain. However, if common carp were at the pathway location, it is possible that a female copepod could detach, flow with the waters across/through the pathway, and re-attach to a new host fish across the divide. In addition, during a one percent annual recurrence interval flood event, the flooded drainage ditches would be pumped out and a free floating copepod could easily be moved via this pumped water.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia Virus:
Given the characteristics at the divide it appears possible that a fish (e.g., common carp, trout) carrying VHSv would be able to move across the divide. Furthermore, given its wide range of potential hosts, that trout are naturally found in both sides of the divide, and VHSv can live for several days outside of its host depending on temperature, this rating is identified as high. During a one percent annual recurrence interval flood event, it is possible that an infected host could be carried into the agricultural drainage network where it could then be pumped out. It is reasonable to expect that a small infected fish or the virus itself could be pumped through the pathway to the Mississippi River Basin.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Inland Silverside:
The habitat at the pathway itself consists of a series of inter-connected, sparsely vegetated agricultural drainage ditches which link the Mississippi River Basin with the Great Lakes Basin. Establishing a sustainable population within or near the drainage ditches is not likely. However, it is possible that the inland silverside could survive in this system long enough to transfer across the basin divide under the proper conditions. A conversation with the farmer/landowner at the pathway in May, 2011 identified that he has seen common carp within the agricultural drainage ditches. During storm
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in the Little Killbuck aquatic pathway long enough to transfer across the basin divide under the proper flooding conditions. During certain storm events, water is pumped from these agricultural ditches into both basins. A storm event as minimal as atwo to five percent annual recurrence interval results in significant portions of this site being inundated and FEMA mapping displays the entire site as inundated from a one percent annual recurrence interval storm event. Considering these factors, it would be possible for the skipjack herring to transfer across the basin divide via the agricultural drainage ditches if the frequency between significant storm events was within a timeframe that would allow for their survival within this system. In addition, roadside ditches along Franchester Road span the divide and connect both basins via Repp Run and Clear Creek. The flooding event witnessed during the site visit in May, 2011 indicates that this area would be inundated with water across the basin divide from between a two and five percent annual recurrence interval event.
Team Rating: MediumTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
5 Overall Aquatic Pathway Viability
As discussed in Sections 2.4 and 2.5, the determination of the likelihood of a viable aquatic pathway occurring at the Little Killbuck Creek location for each ANS of concern is the product of five probability elements (Equation 5). Thus, the probability of a viable pathway for a particular ANS of concern is equal to the lowest rating determined for each of the five probability elements (Table 15 and Table 16). The overall pathway viability for transferring ANS of concern from the Mississippi River Basin to the Great Lakes Basin was equal to the highest probability of a viable pathway for each ANS of concern in Table 15. At the Little Killbuck Creek location, three of the four ANS were rated “medium” and one was rated “low”. Therefore, the overall pathway viability for transferring species from the Mississippi River Basin to the Great Lakes Basin is “medium”. The overall pathway viability for transferring species from the Great Lakes Basin is calculated the same way and is shown in Table 16. At the Little Killbuck Creek location, the overall pathway viability
short distances over land, it is likely this species has the potential to move into and out of this environment.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Threespine Sticlkeback:
The threespine stickleback has been found in smaller river systems and downstream movement through the Little Killbuck Creek pathway site would be likely. If the threespine stickleback were able to reach the streams, ditchesv and wetlands at the divide, it is highly likely that the fish would survive and pass through the pathway into the Mississippi River Basin during a suitable flood event.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Ruffe/Tubenose Goby:
Ruffe and the tubenose goby have not been found in river systems similar to Clear Creek and Little Killbuck Creek, or the agricultural ditches at the basin divide. However, if the fish were introduced into the wetlands and ditch network at the basin divide, they would likely be successful in passing through the Little Killbuck Creek aquatic pathway into the Mississippi River Basin.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
European Fingernail Clam and European Stream Valvata:
The European fingernail clam and stream valvata have been found in smaller rivers and canals, including ditches, and movement through the Little Killbuck Creek pathway would be likely, possibly aided by periodic agricultural pumping operations for drainage and irrigation.
Team Rating: HighTeam certainty rating: Reasonably Certain
Skipjack Herring:
It is possible that the skipjack herring could survive
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of the overall ANS ratings for unidirectional transfer which were calculated in Table 15 and 16. Thus, the overall probability that a viable aquatic pathway exists at the Little Killbuck Creek Pathway is “medium”.
for transferring species from the Great Lakes Basin to the Mississippi River Basin is “medium”. The last calculation is to determine the overall pathway viability for interbasin spread of ANS which is calculated by taking the highest
Table 15: Summary of individual probability elements and overall pathway viability rating (Mississippi River Basin to Great Lakes Basin). Certainty ratings for each element are in parentheses.
Form 1 Form 2 Form 3a Form 4 Form 5
Group Common Name
Mode of Dispersal
Pathway Exists?
(Sect. 3.6)
ANS Occur-ring Within
Either Basin?
(Sect. 4.1)
ANS Surviv-ing Transit
to Pathway? (Sect. 4.2.1)
ANS Establishing in Proximity to Pathway?
(Sect. 4.3)
ANS Spread-
ing Across Aquatic Pathway into New Basin?
(Sect. 4.4)
Aquatic Pathway Viability Rating
fish
Asian carp,
swimmer
M (VC)
H (RC) M (RC) M (RC) H (VC) Msilver carp,
bighead carp,
black carp
fish inland silverside swimmer M (RC) M (MC) M (RC) H (RC) M
fish northern snakehead swimmer M (RC) M (RC) H (RC) H (RC) M
fish skipjack herring swimmer H (VC) L (MC) L (MC) M (RC) L
Overall Pathway Viability for Spread of ANS from Mississippi River Basin to Great Lakes Basin: M
Table 16: Summary of individual probability elements and overall pathway viability rating (Great Lakes Basin to Mississippi River Basin). Certainty ratings for each element are in parentheses.
Form 1 Form 2 Form 3a Form 4 Form 5
Group Common Name
Mode of Dispersal
Pathway Exists?
(Sect. 3.6)
ANS Occur-ring Within
Either Basin?
(Sect. 4.1)
ANS Surviv-ing Transit
to Pathway? (Sect. 4.2.1)
ANS Establishing in Proximity to Pathway?
(Sect. 4.3)
ANS Spread-
ing Across Aquatic Pathway into New Basin?
(Sect. 4.4)
Aquatic Pathway Viability Rating
fish threespine stickleback swimmer
M (VC)
H (VC) M (RC) M (MC) H (RC) M
fishruffe and tubenose
gobyswimmer H (MC) M (RC) M (MC) H (RC) M
crustacean parasitic copepod parasite H (MC) M (RC) H (RC) H (RC) M
virus VHSvfish pathogen
/ water colmumn
H (RC) M (RC) H (MC) H (RC) M
molluskEuropean fingernail
clamfloater M (MC) L (RC) M (MC) H (RC) L
molluskEuropean
stream valvata
floater H (RC) L (MC) H (MC) H (RC) L
Overall Pathway Viability for Spread of ANS from Great Lakes Basin to Mississippi River Basin: M
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the potential for movement of ANS through the Little Killbuck Creek pathway, in either direction between the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basins.
The interagency team evaluating the hydrology of the Little Killbuck Creek site rated it as a location where there is a medium probability of an aquatic pathway existing between the basins, and determined that such a connection results from between a two and five percent annual recurrence interval storm.
Based on the species assessments in Section 4.2.1 of this report, it has been estimated that it is unlikely that any ANS of concern could arrive at the Little Killbuck Creek pathway on their own within the next 20 years. This may provide an important period of time to allow stakeholders and resource agencies to develop potential ANS transfer prevention measures for this location.
An existing agricultural ditch system at an active farm spans the divide and connects both basins during certain storm events. Pumps within this system are utilized to pump water from the fields into either basin for drainage while check valves create the ability to bring water from either basin into the ditch system for irrigation.
Roadside ditches along Franchester Road, which span the divide, allow wetland systems to become hydrologically connected during certain storm events and creates potential for inter-basin transfer.
Any measures at the pathway location to prevent potential transfer of ANS will likely impact the existing use of the surrounding land, but the full effects of such potential actions are unclear and will require further investigation.
There was significant uncertainty associated with the biological ratings, including:
The current location and distribution of the large array of ANS that have been introduced to the waters of the U.S.
The life history requirements of each of these ANS.
6 ConclusionsThe hydrologic assessment determined that an aquatic pathway exists across the basin divide at the Little Killbuck Creek site during storm events between a two and five percent annual recurrence interval storm. There is a possibility that multiple ANS could utilize this aquatic pathway to transfer in either direction between the Mississippi River and Great Lakes Basins. A rating of medium in this case means that while multiple ANS could transfer between the basins at this location, they are not likely to reach the pathway from their current known locations in the Mississippi River Basin within the next 20 years. Water quality and the physical nature of the streams and ditches at and leading to the pathway will likely allow for the support of multiple ANS under the proper flooding conditions, which only exist on an intermittent basis. Although introduction of ANS to the pathway location is possible by anthropogenic means, it was determined to be highly unlikely due to existing land use and private ownership, and was not a consideration in the overall rating of the Little Killbuck Creek pathway location.
7 Problems and Opportunities
This section uses the results of the pathway assessment to develop a list of statements that define and frame the nature and extent of the problems associated with the potential interbasin transfer of ANS at this site. Following these problem statements is a list of corresponding opportunity statements that were developed in the course of the pathway assessment to help initiate and guide any further study of this location.
7.1 Little Killbuck Creek Problem Statements
This section uses the results of the assessment to develop a list of statements that briefly define and frame the nature and extent of the problems associated with
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Such land use alteration would likely also require some structural measure(s) at some location(s) at the pathway site.
Evaluate structural alternatives for preventing transfer of ANS at Little Killbuck:
Berm supplementation (e.g., improvement and raising) along Little Killbuck Creek and/or Repp Run to prevent interbasin surface water flows up to a certain flood event.
New berm construction along Little Killbuck Creek, Repp Run, and/or along Franchester Road to prevent interbasin surface water flows up to a certain flood event.
Drainage ditch reconfiguration and/or modification of irrigation practices to minimize or eliminate interbasin flows.
Weir structure or some sort of in stream blockage that allows for normal flows and site drainage, but prevents upstream movement of ANS. A potentially suitable location for this option would be within the ditch network that forms the headwaters of Clear Creek on the northern part of the existing farm.
Evaluate non-structural alternatives for deterring transfer of ANS at Little Killbuck:
Discontinue drainage ditch pumping.
Chemical control measures and deterrents within the drainage system and or within the pathway ditch network.
Biological monitoring and physical removal of fish in the drainage system.
New or modified regulations or ordinances prohibiting the establishment of drainage ways that connect the Mississippi River tributaries with Great Lakes tributaries.
Collection of addition data to better understand the frequency, duration, and magnitude (width,
The suitability of the habitat between the current nearest locations of the ANS and the pathway.
Lack of site specific hydraulic and hydrologic modeling to better understand the frequency, duration, and magnitude (width, depth, and flow velocity) of the aquatic pathway.
Scarcity of stream gages and real data on water levels at, and in proximity to, the aquatic pathway.
Detailed survey information on the exact elevations at this location was not available.
7.2 Little Killbuck Creek Opportunity Statements
While it is not the purpose of this assessment to produce and evaluate an exhaustive list of potential actions to prevent ANS transfer at this location, some opportunities were still identified that, if implemented, could prevent or reduce the probability of ANS spread between the basins at the Little Killbuck Creek aquatic pathway. The following list of opportunities is not specific to the USACE, but incorporates a wide range of possible applicable authorities, capabilities, and jurisdictions at the Federal, state, and local levels. These are as follows:
Land use alteration:
The conversion of the agricultural lands to wetlands could allow a land use that does not require basin to basin pumping.
There are multiple Federal programs that assist landowners develop wetlands, such as the NRCS Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP), a voluntary program offering landowners the opportunity to protect, restore, and enhance wetlands on their property.
70 Little Killbuck Creek Report
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depth, and flow velocity) of the aquatic pathway at different flood events. Also, collection of site-specific survey data to verify or better understand relative ground elevations at the aquatic pathway.
Stream restoration efforts, such as for fish passage of native species, should take into consideration any potential effect they might have on the factors that contributed to this rating. For example, a proposal to remove or modify an existing dam that is relied upon in this assessment for blockage of ANS might alter the rating for one or more species of ANS.
Explore measures to reduce the potential source populations of ANS:
Increase commercial and recreational harvest, specifically bighead and silver carp
Implement measures to interfere with successful reproduction of ANS
Introduce biological controls such as species-specific diseases specific to particular ANS
Public education to:
Prevent anthropogenic (e.g., bait bucket) transfer
Prevent transfer due to cultural reasons
Identify and report the observation and collection of ANS to the ODNR and the USGS-NAS
Support research on the biology of ANS so that risk of ANS transfer can be better understood.
Habitat requirements and tolerances
History of invasiveness
Improve and increase field sampling and monitoring in connecting streams for the presence of ANS to support better informed water resource management decisions within the state and region:
Develop an integrated ANS sampling and analysis plan utilizing eDNA and conventional biological sampling techniques
Target, encourage, and train recreational fishermen, boaters, and other direct users of the surface waters of the state of Ohio to identify, report, collect, and deliver ANS to the ODNR and report to the state and USGS-NAS
Prevent introductions of additional ANS:
Improve regulations for bilge releases
Improve regulations on the pet industry
Improve regulations on the live bait industry
Improve regulations on the aquaculture industry
None of the opportunities identified above are exclusive of the others. In fact, any single structural measure to prevent ANS transfer through the Little Killbuck Creek pathway would likely benefit from corresponding development and implementation of one or more of the other types of opportunities identified. The results of this assessment may also aid in the implementation of, and future updates to, the Ohio Aquatic Nuisance Species Management Plan.
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71
8 References:
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Appendix A
Evaluation Forms for each ANS of Concern Selected for the Little Killbuck Pathway
1. P
roba
bilit
y of
aqu
atic
pat
hway
exi
sten
ce
Ratin
g Fl
ow
into
GLB
Cert
aint
y Ra
ting
Flow
in
to M
RBCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RC
Mod
erat
ely
Cert
ain
MC
Reas
onab
ly U
ncer
tain
RU
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
Very
Unc
erta
in
VU
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Dur
ing
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
site
fiel
d vi
sit o
n M
ay 2
5 an
d 26
, 201
1 th
ere
was
a st
orm
that
pro
duce
d 2.
73 in
ches
of r
ain
over
a 2
4 ho
ur
perio
d. A
s a re
sult
of th
is st
orm
, roa
ds in
the
area
of c
once
rn w
ere
flood
ed a
nd th
ere
was
a v
isibl
e w
ater
way
con
nect
ion
betw
een
the
divi
de fr
om th
e Gr
eat L
akes
Bas
in a
nd th
e M
ississ
ippi
Riv
er B
asin
. It
is es
timat
ed th
at th
e st
orm
was
less
than
a 5
yea
r sto
rm e
vent
.
1. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e lik
elih
ood
of th
e ex
iste
nce
of a
via
ble
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
t the
subj
ect l
ocat
ion?
Ass
ume
a vi
able
aqu
atic
pat
hway
is a
ny
loca
tion
whe
re u
ntre
ated
surf
ace
wat
er fl
ow a
cros
s the
div
ide
is d
eem
ed li
kely
to o
ccur
and
conn
ect h
eadw
ater
stre
ams i
n bo
th b
asin
s fro
m a
ny
stor
m u
p to
the
1% a
nnua
l ret
urn
freq
uenc
y st
orm
.
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Pere
nnia
l str
eam
s and
wet
land
s or i
nter
mitt
ent s
trea
m k
now
n/do
cum
ente
d to
con
vey
signi
fican
t vol
umes
of w
ater
ac
ross
the
basin
div
ide
for d
ays t
o w
eeks
mul
tiple
tim
es p
er y
ear.
In
term
itten
t str
eam
cap
able
of m
aint
aini
ng a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n to
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e co
ntin
uous
ly fo
r mul
tiple
day
s fro
m a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m; o
r, lo
catio
n of
wet
land
span
ning
bas
in d
ivid
e w
hich
mai
ntai
ns si
gnifi
cant
pon
ds th
at a
re li
kely
to b
ecom
e in
ter c
onne
cted
and
con
nect
with
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f th
e ba
sin d
ivid
e fr
om a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Inte
rmitt
ent s
trea
m o
r mar
sh fo
rmin
g a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n be
twee
n st
ream
s on
eith
er si
de o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e fr
om la
rger
than
a 1
.0%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - A
sian
Car
p
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtise
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RB-H
&H
Hyd
raul
ic E
ngin
eer
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
ODN
R - F
isher
ies B
iolo
gist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Team
Rat
ings
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
2. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S oc
curr
ing
with
in e
ither
bas
inRa
ting
Cert
aint
y
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Si
lver
and
big
head
car
p ar
e es
tabl
ished
thro
ugho
ut th
e Lo
wer
Ohi
o Ri
ver b
asin
. Su
cces
sful
bre
edin
g po
pula
tions
seem
to st
op n
ear
Loui
svill
e, K
Y. O
ccur
ence
s of t
he b
ighe
ad c
arp
have
bee
n no
ted
in th
e U
pper
Ohi
o Ri
ver b
asin
incl
udin
g M
ound
svill
e, W
V an
d th
e M
ahon
ing
Rive
r in
Ohi
o. I
t is r
easo
nabl
e to
exp
ect t
hat b
ighe
ad c
arp
and
silve
r car
p, la
ter,
coul
d m
igra
te u
p Ki
llbuc
k Cr
eek.
The
repr
oduc
tive
succ
ess o
f tho
se
indi
vidu
als i
s que
stio
nabl
e.
2. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
occu
ring
with
in e
ither
bas
in?
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s in
clos
e en
ough
pro
xim
ity to
be
capa
ble
of m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
with
in 2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s, b
ut b
ased
on
curr
ent p
roxi
mity
and
mob
ility
, is c
onsid
ered
inca
pabl
e of
m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay w
ithin
20
year
s.
Targ
et A
NS
is no
t kno
wn
to e
xist
on
a co
nnec
ted
wat
erw
ay.
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRH
- W
ildlif
e Bi
olog
ist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3 Fi
sh M
gmt.
Sup.
Te
am R
atin
g
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - A
sian
Car
p
3. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
3A R
atin
g Ce
rtai
nty
3B R
atin
gCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Spaw
ning
initi
ated
by
risin
g w
ater
leve
ls fo
llow
ing
the
heav
y ra
ins.
Bot
h sp
ecie
s are
stro
ng sw
imm
ers a
nd si
lver
car
p ar
e ca
pabl
e of
jum
ping
co
nsid
erab
le d
istan
ces o
ut o
f the
wat
er (u
p to
12
feet
). T
here
are
no
obst
acle
s in
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
or K
illbu
ck C
reek
that
wou
ld p
erm
anen
tly
prev
ent u
pstr
eam
mig
ratio
n of
silv
er c
arp
or b
ighe
ad c
arp.
Hab
itat p
rese
nt w
ithin
mos
t of L
ittle
Kill
buck
Cre
ek a
nd K
illbu
ck C
reek
is n
ot id
eal h
abita
t fo
r silv
er a
nd b
ighe
ad c
arp,
whi
ch a
re n
ativ
e to
and
thriv
e in
larg
e riv
ers,
but i
t is n
ot k
now
n to
wha
t ext
ent t
his m
ay p
reve
nt m
igra
tion
or p
assa
ge.
Bigh
ead
carp
are
zoop
lank
tivor
ous,
whi
le si
lver
car
p co
nsum
e sm
alle
r phy
topl
ankt
on a
nd fi
ne p
artic
ulat
e or
gani
c m
atte
r. S
uffic
ient
fora
ge is
ava
ilabl
e fo
r bot
h sp
ecie
s thr
ough
out t
he la
rger
rive
rs d
owns
trea
m o
f the
incl
udin
g th
e M
uski
ngum
, Wal
hond
ing,
and
per
haps
Kill
buck
Cre
ek.
Fora
ge
abun
danc
e an
d di
vers
ity d
ecre
ases
mov
ing
upst
ream
tow
ards
the
path
way
as w
ater
qua
lity
and
volu
me
decr
ease
. Ad
ult b
lack
car
p ar
e pr
imar
ily
mol
lusc
ivor
es.
How
ever
, the
y w
ill o
ppor
tuni
stic
ally
con
sum
e a
wid
e va
riety
of f
ood
item
s. J
uven
ile b
lack
car
p ha
ve a
die
t mor
e sim
ilar t
o sil
ver a
nd
bigh
ead
carp
, con
sistin
g pr
imar
ily o
f zoo
plan
kton
. Th
e di
et o
f juv
enile
bla
ck c
arp
may
allo
w th
em to
surv
ive
in a
reas
uns
uita
ble
for a
dults
. Th
e ha
bita
t of
bla
ck c
arp
is ve
ry si
mila
r to
the
gras
s car
p. I
t is b
elie
ved
that
bla
ck c
arp
shou
ld b
e ab
le to
col
onize
the
sam
e ar
eas o
f the
Uni
ted
Stat
es w
here
the
gras
s car
p ha
ve e
stab
lishe
d.
Juve
nile
, sex
ually
imm
atur
e As
ian
carp
hav
e be
en o
bser
ved
in th
e up
mos
t rea
ches
of s
mal
l trib
utar
ies t
o la
rge
river
s att
empt
ing
to p
ass o
ver b
arrie
rs,
such
as d
ams,
to c
ontin
ue th
eir u
pstr
eam
mov
emen
t (Ch
apm
an, D
uane
. USG
S, p
erso
nal c
omm
unic
atio
n, S
epte
mbe
r 12,
201
1 an
d Ca
swel
l, N
ate.
U
SFW
S, p
erso
nal c
omm
unic
atio
n Se
ptem
ber 1
2, 2
011
with
Eag
le M
arsh
team
). It
is im
port
ant t
o no
te th
at y
oung
Asia
n ca
rp te
nd to
mov
e la
tera
lly
away
from
the
river
in w
hich
they
wer
e sp
awne
d an
d no
t bac
k up
stre
am (C
hapm
an, D
uane
. USG
S, p
erso
nal c
omm
unic
atio
n, S
epte
mbe
r 12,
201
1 w
ith
Eagl
e M
arsh
team
). N
ewly
hat
ched
fry
are
not k
now
n to
mov
e sig
nific
ant d
istan
ces u
pstr
eam
; how
ever
, the
y m
ay m
ove
long
dist
ance
s up
smal
l tr
ibut
arie
s and
side
cha
nnel
s in
the
vici
nitie
s of w
here
they
hat
ch.
It h
as a
lso b
een
note
d th
at 1
2-18
inch
Asia
n ca
rp h
ave
been
kno
wn
to tr
avel
long
di
stan
ces,
thro
ugho
ut ri
ver s
yste
ms,
for n
o ap
pare
nt re
ason
(Cha
pman
, Dua
ne. U
SGS,
per
sona
l com
mun
icat
ion,
Sep
tem
ber 1
2, 2
011
with
Eag
le M
arsh
te
am).
Adu
lt, se
xual
ly m
atur
e As
ian
carp
hav
e al
so b
een
foun
d in
ver
y sm
all s
trea
ms,
whi
ch a
ppea
r sca
rcel
y la
rge
enou
gh to
supp
ort t
he fi
shes
at l
ow
wat
er (C
hapm
an, D
uane
. USG
S, p
erso
nal c
omm
unic
atio
n, S
epte
mbe
r 12,
201
1 w
ith E
agle
Mar
sh te
am).
The
age
thes
e fis
hes a
rriv
ed a
t the
se lo
catio
ns
is un
know
n.
Rem
arks
: 3B
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh O
ther
Mea
nsTh
ere
are
poor
recr
eatio
n op
port
uniti
es a
t the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck si
te.
Ther
efor
e, it
is h
ighl
y un
likel
y th
at A
sian
carp
cou
ld b
e sp
read
thro
ugh
othe
r an
thro
poge
nic
mea
ns.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: 3A
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh C
onne
ctin
g St
ream
s.
3A.
How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
conn
ectin
g st
ream
s?3B
. How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
othe
r mea
ns?
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed in
rela
tivel
y cl
ose
prox
imity
to lo
catio
n an
d ha
ve a
mpl
e op
port
unity
, cap
abili
ty a
nd m
otiv
atio
n to
succ
essf
ully
nav
igat
e th
roug
h th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
and
/or t
hrou
gh o
ther
mea
ns to
arr
ive
at th
e su
bjec
t pat
hway
with
in
10-2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed a
t loc
atio
ns in
clo
se e
noug
h pr
oxim
ity to
loca
tion
and
have
lim
ited
capa
bilit
y to
surv
ive
pass
age
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
20-
50 y
ears
.
Targ
et A
NS
are
not i
n pr
oxim
ity to
the
path
way
, and
/or i
t is h
ighl
y un
likel
y th
at th
ey c
ould
surv
ive
tran
sit fr
om c
urre
nt
loca
tions
by
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
nex
t 50
year
s.
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - A
sian
Car
p
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRH
- W
ildlif
e Bi
olog
ist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3 Fi
sh M
gmt.
Sup.
Te
am R
atin
gs
4. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S es
tabl
ishi
ng in
pro
xim
ity to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Si
lver
and
big
head
car
p ar
e fa
st g
row
ing
spec
ies t
hat a
re c
apab
le o
f sur
vivi
ng in
a w
ide
rang
e of
wat
er te
mpe
ratu
res a
nd re
prod
ucin
g qu
ickl
y, p
rovi
ding
suita
ble
habi
tat i
s ava
ilabl
e. I
t's b
elie
ved
that
silv
er a
nd b
ighe
ad c
arp
requ
ire su
ffici
ent f
low
to k
eep
fert
ilize
d eg
gs su
spen
ded
for
succ
essf
ul re
prod
uctio
n. I
t is u
nlik
ely
that
spaw
ning
wou
ld o
ccur
with
in L
ittle
Kill
buck
or t
he a
gric
ultu
ral d
rain
age
netw
ork
at th
e pa
thw
ay.
If As
ian
carp
reac
h th
e pa
thw
ay d
urin
g a
flood
ing
even
t the
y m
ay su
rviv
e lo
ng e
noug
h to
be
pum
ped
into
the
Grea
t Lak
es b
asin
. Al
thou
gh it
is u
nlik
ely
that
ad
ults
wou
ld su
rviv
e lo
ng p
erio
ds o
f tim
e w
ithin
the
agric
ultu
ral d
rain
age
netw
ork
due
to p
oor w
ater
qua
lity
and
wat
er v
olum
e.
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
plen
tiful
in c
lose
pro
xim
ity to
supp
ort a
ll lif
e st
ages
from
birt
h to
ad
ult,
abio
tic c
ondi
tions
alig
n w
ith n
ativ
e ra
nge
and
ther
e ar
e no
kno
wn
pred
ator
s or c
ondi
tions
that
wou
ld si
gnifi
cant
ly
impe
de su
rviv
abili
ty o
r rep
rodu
ctio
n.
Lim
ited
and
disc
onne
cted
are
as a
nd so
urce
s of f
ood
and
habi
tat s
uita
ble
to th
e AN
S ar
e av
aila
ble
in p
roxi
mity
, abi
otic
co
nditi
ons a
re w
ithin
latit
ude
limits
of n
ativ
e ra
nge,
but
onl
y a
port
ion
of th
e he
alth
y in
divi
dual
s arr
ivin
g at
loca
tion
can
be e
xpec
ted
to e
ffect
ivel
y co
mpe
te a
nd su
rviv
e.
Low
Habi
tat a
nd a
biot
ic c
ondi
tions
in p
roxi
mity
are
out
side
the
rang
e w
here
AN
S ha
s bee
n kn
own
to su
rviv
e; th
ere
is ve
ry
limite
d av
aila
bilit
y ha
bita
t are
a su
itabl
e fo
r AN
S co
ver,
sust
aina
ble
food
supp
ly a
nd re
prod
uctio
n; o
r nat
ive
pred
ator
s or
com
petit
ion
with
nat
ive
spec
ies w
ould
like
ly p
reve
nt e
stab
lishm
ent o
f a su
stai
nabl
e po
pula
tion.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3 Fi
sh M
gmt.
Sup.
Te
am R
atin
gs4.
How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S es
tabl
ishi
ng in
pro
xim
ity to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay?
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - A
sian
Car
p
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtise
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
5. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S sp
read
ing
acro
ss a
quat
ic p
athw
ay in
to th
e ne
w b
asin
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
VCHi
ghVC
High
VCHi
ghVC
High
VCHi
ghVC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCRe
ason
ably
cer
tain
.M
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RURe
ason
ably
unc
erta
inVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Asia
n ca
rp h
ave
dem
onst
rate
d ex
cept
iona
l cap
abili
ties o
f spr
eadi
ng th
roug
h la
rge
river
syst
ems,
and
will
like
ly c
ontin
ue to
do
so.
It is
still
un
cert
ain
whe
ther
they
will
col
onize
the
Upp
er O
hio
Rive
r and
its t
ribut
arie
s. B
ut if
thes
e sp
ecie
s rea
ch th
e ba
sin d
ivid
e an
d su
rfac
e w
ater
co
nnec
tions
per
mit,
it is
hig
hly
likel
y th
at th
ey w
ould
spre
ad b
eyon
d th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
into
the
Grea
t Lak
es B
asin
.
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
5. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
spre
adin
g ac
ross
aqu
atic
pat
hway
into
the
new
bas
in?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
avai
labl
e, a
nd th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ca
pabi
litie
s to
signi
fican
tly e
xpan
d ra
nge
from
loca
tions
whe
re in
itial
ly in
trod
uced
.
Ther
e ar
e lim
ited
sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d su
itabl
e ha
bita
t, an
d/or
the
spec
ies h
as d
emon
stra
ted
limite
d ab
ility
to sp
read
sig
nific
ant d
istan
ces b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
Ther
e ar
e se
vere
ly li
mite
d so
urce
s of f
ood
and
suita
ble
habi
tat,
and/
or th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ve
ry li
mite
d ab
ility
to
spre
ad b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRH
- W
ildlif
e Bi
olog
ist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3 Fi
sh M
gmt.
Sup.
Te
am R
atin
gs
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - A
sian
Car
p
1. P
roba
bilit
y of
aqu
atic
pat
hway
exi
sten
ce
Ratin
g Fl
ow
into
GLB
Cert
aint
y Ra
ting
Flow
in
to M
RBCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RC
Mod
erat
ely
Cert
ain
MC
Reas
onab
ly U
ncer
tain
RU
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
Very
Unc
erta
in
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - P
aras
itic
Cope
pod
(Neo
erga
silu
s jap
onic
us)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
le
USA
CE L
RB-H
&H
Hyd
raul
ic E
ngin
eer
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
ODN
R - F
isher
ies B
iolo
gist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Team
Rat
ings
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Dur
ing
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
site
fiel
d vi
sit o
n M
ay 2
5 an
d 26
, 201
1 th
ere
was
a st
orm
that
pro
duce
d 2.
73 in
ches
of r
ain
over
a 2
4 ho
ur
perio
d. A
s a re
sult
of th
is st
orm
, roa
ds in
the
area
of c
once
rn w
ere
flood
ed a
nd th
ere
was
a v
isibl
e w
ater
way
con
nect
ion
betw
een
the
divi
de fr
om th
e Gr
eat L
akes
Bas
in a
nd th
e M
ississ
ippi
Riv
er B
asin
. It
is es
timat
ed th
at th
e st
orm
was
less
than
a 5
yea
r sto
rm e
vent
.
1. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e lik
elih
ood
of th
e ex
iste
nce
of a
via
ble
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
t the
subj
ect l
ocat
ion?
Ass
ume
a vi
able
aqu
atic
pat
hway
is a
ny
loca
tion
whe
re u
ntre
ated
surf
ace
wat
er fl
ow a
cros
s the
div
ide
is d
eem
ed li
kely
to o
ccur
and
con
nect
hea
dwat
er st
ream
s in
both
bas
ins f
rom
any
st
orm
up
to th
e 1%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Pere
nnia
l str
eam
s and
wet
land
s or i
nter
mitt
ent s
trea
m k
now
n/do
cum
ente
d to
con
vey
signi
fican
t vol
umes
of w
ater
ac
ross
the
basin
div
ide
for d
ays t
o w
eeks
mul
tiple
tim
es p
er y
ear.
In
term
itten
t str
eam
cap
able
of m
aint
aini
ng a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n to
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e co
ntin
uous
ly fo
r mul
tiple
day
s fro
m a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m; o
r, lo
catio
n of
wet
land
span
ning
bas
in d
ivid
e w
hich
mai
ntai
ns si
gnifi
cant
pon
ds th
at a
re li
kely
to b
ecom
e in
ter c
onne
cted
and
con
nect
with
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f th
e ba
sin d
ivid
e fr
om a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Inte
rmitt
ent s
trea
m o
r mar
sh fo
rmin
g a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n be
twee
n st
ream
s on
eith
er si
de o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e fr
om la
rger
than
a 1
.0%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
2. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S oc
curr
ing
with
in e
ither
bas
in
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
MC
High
MC
High
MC
High
MC
High
MC
High
MC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - P
aras
itic
Cope
pod
(Neo
erga
silu
s jap
onic
us)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRH
- W
ildlif
e Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3,
Fish
Mgm
t. Su
p.Te
am R
atin
g
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Th
e co
pepo
d ha
s a li
fe c
ycle
in w
hich
the
fem
ale
adop
ts a
par
asiti
c ph
ase
on se
vera
l fish
spec
ies,
incl
udin
g m
embe
rs o
f the
min
now
fam
ily,
sunf
ish fa
mily
, cat
fish
fam
ily, a
nd p
oten
tially
oth
er fi
sh sp
ecie
s. T
he c
omm
on c
arp
is a
freq
uent
hos
t of t
he p
aras
ite.
The
fem
ales
can
det
ach
and
re-
atta
ch to
hos
t spe
cies
. The
inva
sive
cope
pod
has b
een
esta
blish
ed in
Lak
e Hu
ron
since
199
4, b
ut h
as n
ot y
et b
een
reco
rded
in L
ake
Erie
. It h
as a
lso
been
foun
d in
Cra
ne C
reek
bas
in, a
dire
ct d
rain
ing
trib
utar
y to
Lak
e Er
ie.
The
com
mon
car
p is
esta
blish
ed in
Lak
e Er
ie. W
hile
oth
er h
ost f
ish sp
ecie
s ar
e kn
own
to e
xist
in th
e pa
thw
ay sy
stem
, the
com
mon
car
p w
as se
lect
ed a
s the
mos
t lik
ely
host
spec
ies b
ecau
se o
f the
life
cyc
le c
apab
ilitie
s of t
he
com
mon
car
p an
d th
e lik
elih
ood
the
com
mon
car
p w
ould
use
and
surv
ive
in th
e pa
thw
ay h
abita
ts.
The
mal
es a
re fr
ee li
ving
but
do
not h
ave
the
capa
bilit
y of
mig
ratio
n up
stre
am. T
he li
tera
ture
indi
cate
s N. j
apon
icus
is sm
all a
nd re
lativ
ely
easy
to m
iss in
fiel
d su
rvey
s, ev
en b
y tr
aine
d bi
olog
ists.
Th
eref
ore,
the
para
sitic
cop
epod
may
be
muc
h m
ore
prev
alen
t tha
n th
e di
strib
utio
n m
aps d
epic
t. D
ue to
its i
nhab
itanc
e of
the
Cran
e Cr
eek
basin
, it i
s hi
ghly
like
ly th
at th
e pa
rasit
ic c
opep
od c
ould
mig
rate
to th
e pa
thw
ay w
ithin
20
year
s.
2. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
occu
ring
with
in e
ither
bas
in?
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s in
clos
e en
ough
pro
xim
ity to
be
capa
ble
of m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
with
in 2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s, bu
t bas
ed o
n cu
rren
t pro
xim
ity a
nd m
obili
ty, i
s con
sider
ed in
capa
ble
of
mov
ing
to th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
with
in 2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
is no
t kno
wn
to e
xist
on
a co
nnec
ted
wat
erw
ay.
3. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
3A R
atin
g Ce
rtai
nty
3B R
atin
gCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RC
Low
VCM
ediu
mRC
Low
RC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - P
aras
itic
Cope
pod
(Neo
erga
silu
s jap
onic
us)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3, F
ish M
gmt.
Sup.
Team
Rat
ings
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: 3A
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh C
onne
ctin
g St
ream
s.
3A.
How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
conn
ectin
g st
ream
s?3B
. How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
othe
r mea
ns?
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed in
rela
tivel
y cl
ose
prox
imity
to lo
catio
n an
d ha
ve a
mpl
e op
port
unity
, cap
abili
ty a
nd
mot
ivat
ion
to su
cces
sful
ly n
avig
ate
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
nd/o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect
path
way
with
in 1
0-20
yea
rs.
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed a
t loc
atio
ns in
clo
se e
noug
h pr
oxim
ity to
loca
tion
and
have
lim
ited
capa
bilit
y to
surv
ive
pass
age
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
20-
50 y
ears
.
Targ
et A
NS
are
not i
n pr
oxim
ity to
the
path
way
, and
/or i
t is h
ighl
y un
likel
y th
at th
ey c
ould
surv
ive
tran
sit fr
om c
urre
nt
loca
tions
by
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
nex
t 50
year
s.
The
com
mon
car
p ha
s bee
n ob
serv
ed o
n bo
th si
des o
f the
pat
hway
and
also
with
in th
e ag
ricul
tura
l dra
inag
e ne
twor
k (v
erifi
ed w
ith th
e la
nd o
wne
r).
The
com
mon
car
p ha
s suc
cess
fully
mig
rate
d to
thes
e po
ints
pre
viou
sly.
It is
reas
onab
le to
exp
ect t
hat t
he c
omm
on c
arp
will
con
tinue
to m
igra
te to
th
is ar
ea su
cces
sful
ly.
In o
rder
for s
ucce
ssfu
l mig
ratio
n th
roug
h th
e pa
thw
ay, a
t lea
st a
5%
floo
d ev
ent w
ould
nee
d to
occ
ur.
Rem
arks
: 3B
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh O
ther
Mea
nsTh
ere
is po
or re
crea
tiona
l opp
ortu
nity
nea
r the
pat
hway
. Th
eref
ore,
ther
e is
a ve
ry lo
w c
hanc
e fo
r oth
er a
nthr
opog
enic
or o
ther
nat
ural
mea
ns o
f tr
ansf
er.
4. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S es
tabl
ishi
ng in
pro
xim
ity to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
RC
High
RC
High
RC
High
RC
High
RC
High
RC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3, F
ish M
gmt.
Sup.
Team
Rat
ings
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - P
aras
itic
Cope
pod
(Neo
erga
silu
s jap
onic
us)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
le
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Th
e co
pepo
d is
very
cap
able
of p
ersis
ting
in e
utro
phic
and
pol
lute
d w
ater
s. T
he c
opep
od d
emon
stra
tes a
rapi
d re
prod
uctiv
e cy
cle
and
is ca
pabl
e of
util
izing
man
y di
ffere
nt h
ost s
peci
es. I
t is h
ighl
y lik
ely
that
the
cope
pod
wou
ld b
e su
cces
sful
in e
stab
lishi
ng in
and
adj
acen
t to
the
path
way
at
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
.
4. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
esta
blis
hing
in p
roxi
mity
to th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
plen
tiful
in c
lose
pro
xim
ity to
supp
ort a
ll lif
e st
ages
from
birt
h to
ad
ult,
abio
tic c
ondi
tions
alig
n w
ith n
ativ
e ra
nge
and
ther
e ar
e no
kno
wn
pred
ator
s or c
ondi
tions
that
wou
ld si
gnifi
cant
ly
impe
de su
rviv
abili
ty o
r rep
rodu
ctio
n.
Lim
ited
and
disc
onne
cted
are
as a
nd so
urce
s of f
ood
and
habi
tat s
uita
ble
to th
e AN
S ar
e av
aila
ble
in p
roxi
mity
, abi
otic
co
nditi
ons a
re w
ithin
latit
ude
limits
of n
ativ
e ra
nge,
but
onl
y a
port
ion
of th
e he
alth
y in
divi
dual
s arr
ivin
g at
loca
tion
can
be e
xpec
ted
to e
ffect
ivel
y co
mpe
te a
nd su
rviv
e.
Low
Habi
tat a
nd a
biot
ic c
ondi
tions
in p
roxi
mity
are
out
side
the
rang
e w
here
AN
S ha
s bee
n kn
own
to su
rviv
e; th
ere
is ve
ry
limite
d av
aila
bilit
y ha
bita
t are
a su
itabl
e fo
r AN
S co
ver,
sust
aina
ble
food
supp
ly a
nd re
prod
uctio
n; o
r nat
ive
pred
ator
s or
com
petit
ion
with
nat
ive
spec
ies w
ould
like
ly p
reve
nt e
stab
lishm
ent o
f a su
stai
nabl
e po
pula
tion.
5. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S sp
read
ing
acro
ss a
quat
ic p
athw
ay in
to th
e ne
w b
asin
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCRe
ason
ably
cer
tain
.M
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RURe
ason
ably
unc
erta
inVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - P
aras
itic
Cope
pod
(Neo
erga
silu
s jap
onic
us)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRH
- W
ildlif
e Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3,
Fish
Mgm
t. Su
p.Te
am R
atin
gs
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Dur
ing
a 5%
floo
d ev
ent,
it is
poss
ible
that
an
infe
cted
car
p co
uld
be c
arrie
d in
to th
e ag
ricul
tura
l dra
inag
e ne
twor
k. A
fter
a fl
ood
even
t the
dr
aina
ge n
etw
ork
wou
ld b
e pu
mpe
d ou
t. It
is re
ason
able
to e
xpec
t tha
t a sm
all i
nfec
ted
carp
or a
free
floa
ting
cope
pod
coul
d be
pum
ped
thro
ugh
to
the
Miss
issip
pi b
asin
.
5. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
spre
adin
g ac
ross
aqu
atic
pat
hway
into
the
new
bas
in?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
avai
labl
e, a
nd th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ca
pabi
litie
s to
signi
fican
tly e
xpan
d ra
nge
from
loca
tions
whe
re in
itial
ly in
trod
uced
.
Ther
e ar
e lim
ited
sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d su
itabl
e ha
bita
t, an
d/or
the
spec
ies h
as d
emon
stra
ted
limite
d ab
ility
to sp
read
sig
nific
ant d
istan
ces b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
Ther
e ar
e se
vere
ly li
mite
d so
urce
s of f
ood
and
suita
ble
habi
tat,
and/
or th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ve
ry li
mite
d ab
ility
to
spre
ad b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
1. P
roba
bilit
y of
aqu
atic
pat
hway
exi
sten
ce
Ratin
g Fl
ow
into
GLB
Cert
aint
y Ra
ting
Flow
in
to M
RBCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RC
Mod
erat
ely
Cert
ain
MC
Reas
onab
ly U
ncer
tain
RU
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
Very
Unc
erta
in
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - V
iral H
emor
rhag
ic S
eptic
emia
(VHS
v)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
le
USA
CE L
RB-H
&H
Hyd
raul
ic E
ngin
eer
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
ODN
R - F
isher
ies B
iolo
gist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Team
Rat
ings
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Dur
ing
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
site
fiel
d vi
sit o
n M
ay 2
5 an
d 26
, 201
1 th
ere
was
a st
orm
that
pro
duce
d 2.
73 in
ches
of r
ain
over
a 2
4 ho
ur
perio
d. A
s a re
sult
of th
is st
orm
, roa
ds in
the
area
of c
once
rn w
ere
flood
ed a
nd th
ere
was
a v
isibl
e w
ater
way
con
nect
ion
betw
een
the
divi
de fr
om th
e Gr
eat L
akes
Bas
in a
nd th
e M
ississ
ippi
Riv
er B
asin
. It
is es
timat
ed th
at th
e st
orm
was
less
than
a 5
yea
r sto
rm e
vent
.
1. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e lik
elih
ood
of th
e ex
iste
nce
of a
via
ble
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
t the
subj
ect l
ocat
ion?
Ass
ume
a vi
able
aqu
atic
pat
hway
is a
ny
loca
tion
whe
re u
ntre
ated
surf
ace
wat
er fl
ow a
cros
s the
div
ide
is d
eem
ed li
kely
to o
ccur
and
con
nect
hea
dwat
er st
ream
s in
both
bas
ins f
rom
any
st
orm
up
to th
e 1%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Pere
nnia
l str
eam
s and
wet
land
s or i
nter
mitt
ent s
trea
m k
now
n/do
cum
ente
d to
con
vey
signi
fican
t vol
umes
of w
ater
ac
ross
the
basin
div
ide
for d
ays t
o w
eeks
mul
tiple
tim
es p
er y
ear.
In
term
itten
t str
eam
cap
able
of m
aint
aini
ng a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n to
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e co
ntin
uous
ly fo
r mul
tiple
day
s fro
m a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m; o
r, lo
catio
n of
wet
land
span
ning
bas
in d
ivid
e w
hich
mai
ntai
ns si
gnifi
cant
pon
ds th
at a
re li
kely
to b
ecom
e in
ter c
onne
cted
and
con
nect
with
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f th
e ba
sin d
ivid
e fr
om a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Inte
rmitt
ent s
trea
m o
r mar
sh fo
rmin
g a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n be
twee
n st
ream
s on
eith
er si
de o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e fr
om la
rger
than
a 1
.0%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
2. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S oc
curr
ing
with
in e
ither
bas
inRa
ting
Cert
aint
y
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - V
iral H
emor
rhag
ic S
eptic
emia
(VHS
v)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRH
- W
ildlif
e Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3,
Fish
Mgm
t. Su
p.Te
am R
atin
g
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: VH
Sv c
an in
fect
a w
ide
rang
e of
hos
t fish
cau
sing
a va
riety
of e
xter
nal a
nd in
tern
al p
atho
logy
incl
udin
g de
ath
of th
e ho
st fi
sh.
Varia
bles
su
ch a
s hos
t fish
spec
ies a
nd w
ater
tem
pera
ture
can
impa
ct th
e pa
thol
ogy
of th
e vi
rus.
See
min
gly
heal
thy
indi
vidu
als t
hat h
ave
been
pre
viou
sly
infe
cted
with
VHS
v ca
n ha
ve c
hron
ic in
fect
ions
and
be
carr
iers
of t
he d
iseas
e. T
his v
irus h
as b
een
repo
rted
from
thro
ugho
ut th
e Gr
eat L
akes
Bas
in
incl
udin
g La
ke E
rie.
VHSv
has
bee
n fo
und
in m
any
spec
ies o
f fish
incl
udin
g co
mm
on c
arp.
Th
e co
mm
on c
arp
is es
tabl
ished
in L
ake
Erie
, as w
ell a
s th
e riv
ers a
nd st
ream
s lea
ding
to th
e Li
ttle
Kill
buck
pat
hway
. Whi
le o
ther
hos
t fish
spec
ies a
re k
now
n to
exi
st in
the
path
way
syst
em, t
he c
omm
on
carp
was
sele
cted
as t
he m
ost l
ikel
y ho
st sp
ecie
s bec
ause
of t
he li
fe c
ycle
cap
abili
ties o
f the
com
mon
car
p an
d th
e lik
elih
ood
the
com
mon
car
p w
ould
us
e an
d su
rviv
e in
the
path
way
hab
itats
.
2. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
occu
ring
with
in e
ither
bas
in?
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s in
clos
e en
ough
pro
xim
ity to
be
capa
ble
of m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
with
in 2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s, b
ut b
ased
on
curr
ent p
roxi
mity
and
mob
ility
, is c
onsid
ered
inca
pabl
e of
m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay w
ithin
20
year
s.
Targ
et A
NS
is no
t kno
wn
to e
xist
on
a co
nnec
ted
wat
erw
ay.
3. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
3A R
atin
g Ce
rtai
nty
3B R
atin
gCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
High
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wVC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - V
iral H
emor
rhag
ic S
eptic
emia
(VHS
v)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3, F
ish M
gmt.
Sup.
Team
Rat
ings
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: 3A
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh C
onne
ctin
g St
ream
s.
3A.
How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
conn
ectin
g st
ream
s?3B
. How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
othe
r mea
ns?
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed in
rela
tivel
y cl
ose
prox
imity
to lo
catio
n an
d ha
ve a
mpl
e op
port
unity
, cap
abili
ty a
nd
mot
ivat
ion
to su
cces
sful
ly n
avig
ate
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
nd/o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect
path
way
with
in 1
0-20
yea
rs.
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed a
t loc
atio
ns in
clo
se e
noug
h pr
oxim
ity to
loca
tion
and
have
lim
ited
capa
bilit
y to
surv
ive
pass
age
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
20-
50 y
ears
.
Targ
et A
NS
are
not i
n pr
oxim
ity to
the
path
way
, and
/or i
t is h
ighl
y un
likel
y th
at th
ey c
ould
surv
ive
tran
sit fr
om c
urre
nt
loca
tions
by
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
nex
t 50
year
s.
The
com
mon
car
p ha
s bee
n ob
serv
ed o
n bo
th si
des o
f the
pat
hway
and
also
with
in th
e ag
ricul
tura
l dra
inag
e ne
twor
k (v
erifi
ed w
ith la
ndow
ner)
. Th
e co
mm
on c
arp
has b
een
succ
essf
ul m
igra
ting
to th
ese
poin
ts p
revi
ously
. It
is re
ason
able
to e
xpec
t tha
t the
com
mon
car
p w
ill c
ontin
ue to
mig
rate
to
this
area
succ
essf
ully
. In
ord
er fo
r suc
cess
ful m
igra
tion
thro
ugh
the
path
way
, at l
east
a 5
% fl
ood
even
t wou
ld n
eed
to o
ccur
.
Rem
arks
: 3B
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh O
ther
Mea
nsTh
ere
is po
or re
crea
tiona
l opp
ortu
nity
nea
r the
pat
hway
. Th
eref
ore,
ther
e is
a ve
ry lo
w c
hanc
e fo
r oth
er a
nthr
opog
enic
or n
atur
al m
eans
of
tran
sfer
.
4. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S es
tabl
ishi
ng in
pro
xim
ity to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
M
CHi
gh
MC
High
M
CHi
gh
MC
High
VC
High
MC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3, F
ish M
gmt.
Sup.
Team
Rat
ings
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - V
iral H
emor
rhag
ic S
eptic
emia
(VHS
v)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
le
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: VH
Sv is
cap
able
of p
ersis
ting
outs
ide
of a
hos
t for
seve
ral d
ays.
The
viru
s dem
onst
rate
s a ra
pid
repr
oduc
tive
cycl
e an
d is
capa
ble
of u
tilizi
ng
man
y di
ffere
nt h
ost s
peci
es. I
t is h
ighl
y lik
ely
that
VHS
v w
ould
be
succ
essf
ul in
est
ablis
hing
in fi
sh p
opul
atio
ns a
lread
y in
and
aro
und
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck
path
way
.
4. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
esta
blis
hing
in p
roxi
mity
to th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
plen
tiful
in c
lose
pro
xim
ity to
supp
ort a
ll lif
e st
ages
from
birt
h to
ad
ult,
abio
tic c
ondi
tions
alig
n w
ith n
ativ
e ra
nge
and
ther
e ar
e no
kno
wn
pred
ator
s or c
ondi
tions
that
wou
ld si
gnifi
cant
ly
impe
de su
rviv
abili
ty o
r rep
rodu
ctio
n.
Lim
ited
and
disc
onne
cted
are
as a
nd so
urce
s of f
ood
and
habi
tat s
uita
ble
to th
e AN
S ar
e av
aila
ble
in p
roxi
mity
, abi
otic
co
nditi
ons a
re w
ithin
latit
ude
limits
of n
ativ
e ra
nge,
but
onl
y a
port
ion
of th
e he
alth
y in
divi
dual
s arr
ivin
g at
loca
tion
can
be e
xpec
ted
to e
ffect
ivel
y co
mpe
te a
nd su
rviv
e.
Low
Habi
tat a
nd a
biot
ic c
ondi
tions
in p
roxi
mity
are
out
side
the
rang
e w
here
AN
S ha
s bee
n kn
own
to su
rviv
e; th
ere
is ve
ry
limite
d av
aila
bilit
y ha
bita
t are
a su
itabl
e fo
r AN
S co
ver,
sust
aina
ble
food
supp
ly a
nd re
prod
uctio
n; o
r nat
ive
pred
ator
s or
com
petit
ion
with
nat
ive
spec
ies w
ould
like
ly p
reve
nt e
stab
lishm
ent o
f a su
stai
nabl
e po
pula
tion.
5. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S sp
read
ing
acro
ss a
quat
ic p
athw
ay in
to th
e ne
w b
asin
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCRe
ason
ably
cer
tain
.M
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RURe
ason
ably
unc
erta
inVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - V
iral H
emor
rhag
ic S
eptic
emia
(VHS
v)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRH
- W
ildlif
e Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3,
Fish
Mgm
t. Su
p.Te
am R
atin
gs
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Dur
ing
a 5%
floo
d ev
ent,
it is
poss
ible
that
an
infe
cted
car
p co
uld
be c
arrie
d in
to th
e ag
ricul
tura
l dra
inag
e ne
twor
k. A
fter
a fl
ood
even
t dr
aina
ge n
etw
ork
wou
ld b
e pu
mpe
d ou
t. It
is re
ason
able
to e
xpec
t tha
t a sm
all i
nfec
ted
fish
or th
e vi
rus i
tsel
f cou
ld b
e pu
mpe
d th
roug
h to
the
Miss
issip
pi b
asin
.
5. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
spre
adin
g ac
ross
aqu
atic
pat
hway
into
the
new
bas
in?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
avai
labl
e, a
nd th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ca
pabi
litie
s to
signi
fican
tly e
xpan
d ra
nge
from
loca
tions
whe
re in
itial
ly in
trod
uced
.
Ther
e ar
e lim
ited
sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d su
itabl
e ha
bita
t, an
d/or
the
spec
ies h
as d
emon
stra
ted
limite
d ab
ility
to sp
read
sig
nific
ant d
istan
ces b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
Ther
e ar
e se
vere
ly li
mite
d so
urce
s of f
ood
and
suita
ble
habi
tat,
and/
or th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ve
ry li
mite
d ab
ility
to
spre
ad b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
1. P
roba
bilit
y of
aqu
atic
pat
hway
exi
sten
ce
Ratin
g Fl
ow
into
GLB
Cert
aint
y Ra
ting
Flow
in
to M
RBCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RC
Mod
erat
ely
Cert
ain
MC
Reas
onab
ly U
ncer
tain
RU
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
Very
Unc
erta
in
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - I
nlan
d Si
lver
side
(Men
idia
ber
yllin
a)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtise
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RB-H
&H
Hyd
raul
ic E
ngin
eer
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
ODN
R - F
isher
ies B
iolo
gist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Team
Rat
ings
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Dur
ing
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
site
fiel
d vi
sit o
n M
ay 2
5 an
d 26
, 201
1 th
ere
was
a st
orm
that
pro
duce
d 2.
73 in
ches
of r
ain
over
a 2
4 ho
ur
perio
d. A
s a re
sult
of th
is st
orm
, roa
ds in
the
area
of c
once
rn w
ere
flood
ed a
nd th
ere
was
a v
isibl
e w
ater
way
con
nect
ion
betw
een
the
divi
de fr
om th
e Gr
eat L
akes
Bas
in a
nd th
e M
ississ
ippi
Riv
er B
asin
. It
is es
timat
ed th
at th
e st
orm
was
less
than
a 5
yea
r sto
rm e
vent
.
1. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e lik
elih
ood
of th
e ex
iste
nce
of a
via
ble
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
t the
subj
ect l
ocat
ion?
Ass
ume
a vi
able
aqu
atic
pat
hway
is a
ny
loca
tion
whe
re u
ntre
ated
surf
ace
wat
er fl
ow a
cros
s the
div
ide
is d
eem
ed li
kely
to o
ccur
and
conn
ect h
eadw
ater
stre
ams i
n bo
th b
asin
s fro
m a
ny
stor
m u
p to
the
1% a
nnua
l ret
urn
freq
uenc
y st
orm
.
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Pere
nnia
l str
eam
s and
wet
land
s or i
nter
mitt
ent s
trea
m k
now
n/do
cum
ente
d to
con
vey
signi
fican
t vol
umes
of w
ater
ac
ross
the
basin
div
ide
for d
ays t
o w
eeks
mul
tiple
tim
es p
er y
ear.
In
term
itten
t str
eam
cap
able
of m
aint
aini
ng a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n to
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e co
ntin
uous
ly fo
r mul
tiple
day
s fro
m a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m; o
r, lo
catio
n of
wet
land
span
ning
bas
in d
ivid
e w
hich
mai
ntai
ns si
gnifi
cant
pon
ds th
at a
re li
kely
to b
ecom
e in
ter c
onne
cted
and
con
nect
with
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f th
e ba
sin d
ivid
e fr
om a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Inte
rmitt
ent s
trea
m o
r mar
sh fo
rmin
g a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n be
twee
n st
ream
s on
eith
er si
de o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e fr
om la
rger
than
a 1
.0%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
2. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S oc
curr
ing
with
in e
ither
bas
inRa
ting
Cert
aint
y
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - I
nlan
d Si
lver
side
(Men
idia
ber
yllin
a)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRH
- W
ildlif
e Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3,
Fish
Mgm
t Sup
.Te
am R
atin
g
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Th
e in
land
silv
ersid
e ha
s bee
n co
llect
ed in
200
3 in
Mt.
Carm
el, I
ndia
na w
hich
is in
sout
hwes
tern
Indi
ana;
stoc
ked
in th
e W
abas
h Ri
ver i
n 19
96; a
nd e
stab
lishe
d in
the
Whi
te ri
ver n
ear t
he c
onflu
ence
with
the
Arka
nsas
and
Miss
issip
pi R
iver
s. T
hese
loca
tions
are
gre
ater
than
250
mile
s fr
om th
e Li
ttle
Kill
buck
site
.
2. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
occu
ring
with
in e
ither
bas
in?
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s in
clos
e en
ough
pro
xim
ity to
be
capa
ble
of m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
with
in 2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s, b
ut b
ased
on
curr
ent p
roxi
mity
and
mob
ility
, is c
onsid
ered
inca
pabl
e of
m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay w
ithin
20
year
s.
Targ
et A
NS
is no
t kno
wn
to e
xist
on
a co
nnec
ted
wat
erw
ay.
3. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
3A R
atin
g Ce
rtai
nty
3B R
atin
gCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
MC
Low
RCM
ediu
mRC
Low
VC
Med
ium
MC
Low
RCM
ediu
mM
CLo
wRC
Med
ium
MC
Low
MC
Med
ium
MC
Low
RC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - I
nlan
d Si
lver
side
(Men
idia
ber
yllin
a)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRH
- W
ildlif
e Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3,
Fish
Mgm
t Sup
.Te
am R
atin
gs
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: 3A
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh C
onne
ctin
g St
ream
s.
3A.
How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
conn
ectin
g st
ream
s?3B
. How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
othe
r mea
ns?
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed in
rela
tivel
y cl
ose
prox
imity
to lo
catio
n an
d ha
ve a
mpl
e op
port
unity
, cap
abili
ty a
nd
mot
ivat
ion
to su
cces
sful
ly n
avig
ate
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
nd/o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect
path
way
with
in 1
0-20
yea
rs.
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed a
t loc
atio
ns in
clo
se e
noug
h pr
oxim
ity to
loca
tion
and
have
lim
ited
capa
bilit
y to
surv
ive
pass
age
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
20-
50 y
ears
.
Targ
et A
NS
are
not i
n pr
oxim
ity to
the
path
way
, and
/or i
t is h
ighl
y un
likel
y th
at th
ey c
ould
surv
ive
tran
sit fr
om c
urre
nt
loca
tions
by
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
nex
t 50
year
s.
As a
rela
tivel
y sm
all f
ish (a
ppro
xim
atel
y fiv
e in
ches
in to
tal l
engh
t at m
atur
ity),
it is
likel
y th
at th
is sp
ecie
s wou
ld se
ek re
fuge
from
hig
h w
ater
ve
loci
ties d
urin
g flo
od e
vent
s, in
stea
d of
att
empt
ing
to m
igra
te u
pstr
eam
. The
hab
itat d
ata
sugg
ests
the
inla
nd si
lver
side
will
col
onize
with
in ri
vers
an
d st
ream
s but
are
usu
ally
foun
d in
cle
ar, q
uiet
wat
er o
ver s
and
or g
rave
l. P
roxi
mity
to p
athw
ay is
gre
ater
than
250
mile
s.
Rem
arks
: 3B
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh O
ther
Mea
nsSi
nce
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck si
te is
an
activ
e fa
rm c
onsis
ting
of c
onne
cted
dra
inag
e di
tche
s, it
is n
ot li
kely
that
fish
ing
or b
oatin
g w
ould
occ
ur a
t or
rela
tivel
y ne
ar th
is lo
catio
n. A
cces
s by
the
gene
ral p
ublic
is li
mite
d to
veh
icul
ar tr
affic
thro
ugh
and
arou
nd th
e sit
e. A
ny o
ther
mea
ns o
f acc
ess w
ould
be
con
sider
ed tr
espa
ssin
g. C
onsid
erin
g th
ese
limita
tions
it is
hig
hly
unlik
ely
that
the
inla
nd si
lver
side
will
arr
ive
at th
e di
vide
by
anth
ropo
geni
c m
eans
, su
ch a
s liv
ewel
l or a
quar
ium
rele
ases
.
4. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S es
tabl
ishi
ng in
pro
xim
ity to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mM
CM
ediu
mM
CM
ediu
mRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3, F
ish M
gmt S
up.
Team
Rat
ings
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - I
nlan
d Si
lver
side
(Men
idia
ber
yllin
a)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtise
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Fo
od h
abits
of t
he In
land
Silv
ersid
e in
clud
e: P
lank
tivor
e; p
artic
ulat
e fe
eder
; size
-sel
ectiv
e pi
cker
; mai
n fo
od it
em zo
opla
nkto
n. S
tom
achs
of
adul
ts in
wes
t Ten
ness
ee c
onta
ined
food
item
s inc
ludi
ng m
idge
larv
ae, m
ayfly
larv
ae (H
exag
enia
), an
d fa
llen
terr
estr
ial i
nsec
ts (i
nclu
ding
Hom
opte
ra,
Hym
enop
tera
. M
ajor
food
org
anism
s in
the
diet
wer
e fr
om th
e fo
llow
ing
grou
ps: S
idid
ae, C
hydo
ridae
, Cer
ioda
phni
a, B
osm
ina,
Cyc
lopo
ida,
nau
plii,
an
d O
stra
coda
. Sp
ecie
s fed
pre
dom
inat
ely
upon
cla
doce
rans
(60%
of t
otal
num
ber o
f foo
d or
gani
sms,
with
larg
est c
ateg
ory,
Sid
idae
, rep
rese
ntin
g 32
%).
Cons
ider
ing
the
diet
ary
rang
e of
this
spec
ies,
it is
reas
onab
le to
con
clud
e th
at a
pop
ulat
ion
coul
d be
est
ablis
hed
in c
lose
pro
xim
ity to
the
path
way
.
4. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
esta
blis
hing
in p
roxi
mity
to th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
plen
tiful
in c
lose
pro
xim
ity to
supp
ort a
ll lif
e st
ages
from
birt
h to
ad
ult,
abio
tic c
ondi
tions
alig
n w
ith n
ativ
e ra
nge
and
ther
e ar
e no
kno
wn
pred
ator
s or c
ondi
tions
that
wou
ld si
gnifi
cant
ly
impe
de su
rviv
abili
ty o
r rep
rodu
ctio
n.
Lim
ited
and
disc
onne
cted
are
as a
nd so
urce
s of f
ood
and
habi
tat s
uita
ble
to th
e AN
S ar
e av
aila
ble
in p
roxi
mity
, abi
otic
co
nditi
ons a
re w
ithin
latit
ude
limits
of n
ativ
e ra
nge,
but
onl
y a
port
ion
of th
e he
alth
y in
divi
dual
s arr
ivin
g at
loca
tion
can
be e
xpec
ted
to e
ffect
ivel
y co
mpe
te a
nd su
rviv
e.
Low
Habi
tat a
nd a
biot
ic c
ondi
tions
in p
roxi
mity
are
out
side
the
rang
e w
here
AN
S ha
s bee
n kn
own
to su
rviv
e; th
ere
is ve
ry
limite
d av
aila
bilit
y ha
bita
t are
a su
itabl
e fo
r AN
S co
ver,
sust
aina
ble
food
supp
ly a
nd re
prod
uctio
n; o
r nat
ive
pred
ator
s or
com
petit
ion
with
nat
ive
spec
ies w
ould
like
ly p
reve
nt e
stab
lishm
ent o
f a su
stai
nabl
e po
pula
tion.
5. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S sp
read
ing
acro
ss a
quat
ic p
athw
ay in
to th
e ne
w b
asin
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCRe
ason
ably
cer
tain
.M
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RURe
ason
ably
unc
erta
inVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - I
nlan
d Si
lver
side
(Men
idia
ber
yllin
a)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtise
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3, F
ish M
gmt S
up.
Team
Rat
ings
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: The
hab
itat a
t the
pat
hway
itse
lf co
nsist
s of a
serie
s of c
onne
cted
spar
sely
veg
etat
ed a
gric
ultu
ral d
rain
age
ditc
hes w
hich
cre
ate
a pa
thw
ay
from
one
bas
in to
ano
ther
. It
is po
ssib
le th
at th
e in
land
silv
ersid
e co
uld
surv
ive
in th
is di
tch
syst
em lo
ng e
noug
h to
tran
sfer
acr
oss t
he b
asin
und
er th
e pr
oper
con
ditio
ns.
A co
nver
satio
n w
ith th
e fa
rmer
/land
owne
r inf
orm
ed u
s tha
t he
has s
een
com
mon
car
p w
ithin
the
agric
ultu
ral d
rain
age
ditc
hes.
Du
ring
stor
m e
vent
s wat
er is
pum
ped
from
thes
e ag
ricul
tura
l ditc
hes i
nto
both
bas
ins.
A st
orm
eve
nt a
s min
imal
as a
5%
ann
ual r
etur
n st
orm
resu
lts
in si
gnifi
cant
por
tions
of t
his s
ite b
eing
inun
date
d. F
EMA
map
s disp
lay
the
entir
e sit
e in
unda
ted
from
a 1
00%
ann
ual r
etur
n st
orm
eve
nt.
Cons
ider
ing
thes
e fa
ctor
s, it
wou
ld b
e po
ssib
le fo
r the
inla
nd si
lver
side
to tr
ansf
er a
cros
s bas
ins v
ia th
e ag
ricul
tura
l dra
inag
e di
tche
s if t
he fr
eque
ncy
betw
een
signi
fican
t sto
rm e
vent
s was
with
in a
tim
efra
me
that
wou
ld a
llow
thei
r sur
viva
l with
in th
is sy
stem
. In
addi
tion,
road
side
ditc
hes a
long
Fra
nche
ster
Ro
ad sp
an th
e di
vide
and
con
nect
bot
h ba
sins v
ia R
epp
Run
and
Clea
r Cre
ek.
The
resu
lts o
f the
stor
m e
vent
witn
esse
d du
ring
the
site
visit
des
crib
e th
is ar
ea a
s bei
ng in
unda
ted
and
wat
er fl
owin
g ac
ross
the
divi
de.
5. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
spre
adin
g ac
ross
aqu
atic
pat
hway
into
the
new
bas
in?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
avai
labl
e, a
nd th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ca
pabi
litie
s to
signi
fican
tly e
xpan
d ra
nge
from
loca
tions
whe
re in
itial
ly in
trod
uced
.
Ther
e ar
e lim
ited
sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d su
itabl
e ha
bita
t, an
d/or
the
spec
ies h
as d
emon
stra
ted
limite
d ab
ility
to sp
read
sig
nific
ant d
istan
ces b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
Ther
e ar
e se
vere
ly li
mite
d so
urce
s of f
ood
and
suita
ble
habi
tat,
and/
or th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ve
ry li
mite
d ab
ility
to
spre
ad b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
1. P
roba
bilit
y of
aqu
atic
pat
hway
exi
sten
ce
Ratin
g Fl
ow
into
GLB
Cert
aint
y Ra
ting
Flow
in
to M
RBCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RC
Mod
erat
ely
Cert
ain
MC
Reas
onab
ly U
ncer
tain
RU
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
Very
Unc
erta
in
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - N
orth
ern
Snak
ehea
d (C
hann
a ar
gus)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtise
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RB-H
&H
Hyd
raul
ic E
ngin
eer
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
ODN
R - F
isher
ies B
iolo
gist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Team
Rat
ings
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Dur
ing
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
site
fiel
d vi
sit o
n M
ay 2
5 an
d 26
, 201
1 th
ere
was
a st
orm
that
pro
duce
d 2.
73 in
ches
of r
ain
over
a 2
4 ho
ur
perio
d. A
s a re
sult
of th
is st
orm
, roa
ds in
the
area
of c
once
rn w
ere
flood
ed a
nd th
ere
was
a v
isibl
e w
ater
way
con
nect
ion
betw
een
the
divi
de fr
om th
e Gr
eat L
akes
Bas
in a
nd th
e M
ississ
ippi
Riv
er B
asin
. It
is es
timat
ed th
at th
e st
orm
was
less
than
a 5
yea
r sto
rm e
vent
.
1. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e lik
elih
ood
of th
e ex
iste
nce
of a
via
ble
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
t the
subj
ect l
ocat
ion?
Ass
ume
a vi
able
aqu
atic
pat
hway
is a
ny
loca
tion
whe
re u
ntre
ated
surf
ace
wat
er fl
ow a
cros
s the
div
ide
is d
eem
ed li
kely
to o
ccur
and
conn
ect h
eadw
ater
stre
ams i
n bo
th b
asin
s fro
m a
ny
stor
m u
p to
the
1% a
nnua
l ret
urn
freq
uenc
y st
orm
.
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Pere
nnia
l str
eam
s and
wet
land
s or i
nter
mitt
ent s
trea
m k
now
n/do
cum
ente
d to
con
vey
signi
fican
t vol
umes
of w
ater
ac
ross
the
basin
div
ide
for d
ays t
o w
eeks
mul
tiple
tim
es p
er y
ear.
In
term
itten
t str
eam
cap
able
of m
aint
aini
ng a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n to
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e co
ntin
uous
ly fo
r mul
tiple
day
s fro
m a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m; o
r, lo
catio
n of
wet
land
span
ning
bas
in d
ivid
e w
hich
mai
ntai
ns si
gnifi
cant
pon
ds th
at a
re li
kely
to b
ecom
e in
ter c
onne
cted
and
con
nect
with
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f th
e ba
sin d
ivid
e fr
om a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Inte
rmitt
ent s
trea
m o
r mar
sh fo
rmin
g a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n be
twee
n st
ream
s on
eith
er si
de o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e fr
om la
rger
than
a 1
.0%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
2. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S oc
curr
ing
with
in e
ither
bas
inRa
ting
Cert
aint
y
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
MC
Med
ium
RC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - N
orth
ern
Snak
ehea
d (C
hann
a ar
gus)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRH
- W
ildlif
e Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3,
Fish
Mgm
t Sup
.Te
am R
atin
g
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Th
e no
rthe
rn sn
akeh
ead
was
foun
d in
200
8 in
Mon
roe,
Ark
ansa
s (>
250
mile
s fro
m th
e Li
ttle
Kill
buck
site
), an
d ha
s sin
ce e
stab
lishe
d a
repr
oduc
ing
popu
latio
n in
the
area
. Alth
ough
in a
diff
eren
t bas
in, t
his s
peci
es is
also
est
ablis
hed
in th
e Po
tom
ac R
iver
in M
aryl
and
and
Virg
inia
.
2. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
occu
ring
with
in e
ither
bas
in?
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s in
clos
e en
ough
pro
xim
ity to
be
capa
ble
of m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
with
in 2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s, b
ut b
ased
on
curr
ent p
roxi
mity
and
mob
ility
, is c
onsid
ered
inca
pabl
e of
m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay w
ithin
20
year
s.
Targ
et A
NS
is no
t kno
wn
to e
xist
on
a co
nnec
ted
wat
erw
ay.
3. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
3A R
atin
g Ce
rtai
nty
3B R
atin
gCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Low
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - N
orth
ern
Snak
ehea
d (C
hann
a ar
gus)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3, F
ish M
gmt S
up.
Team
Rat
ings
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: 3A
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh C
onne
ctin
g St
ream
s.
3A.
How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
conn
ectin
g st
ream
s?3B
. How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
othe
r mea
ns?
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed in
rela
tivel
y cl
ose
prox
imity
to lo
catio
n an
d ha
ve a
mpl
e op
port
unity
, cap
abili
ty a
nd
mot
ivat
ion
to su
cces
sful
ly n
avig
ate
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
nd/o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect
path
way
with
in 1
0-20
yea
rs.
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed a
t loc
atio
ns in
clo
se e
noug
h pr
oxim
ity to
loca
tion
and
have
lim
ited
capa
bilit
y to
surv
ive
pass
age
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
20-
50 y
ears
.
Targ
et A
NS
are
not i
n pr
oxim
ity to
the
path
way
, and
/or i
t is h
ighl
y un
likel
y th
at th
ey c
ould
surv
ive
tran
sit fr
om c
urre
nt
loca
tions
by
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
nex
t 50
year
s.
The
nort
hern
snak
ehea
d is
an in
cred
ibly
resil
ient
spec
ies.
As o
blig
ate
air b
reat
hers
, nor
ther
n sn
akeh
eads
obt
ain
requ
ired
oxyg
en d
irect
ly fr
om th
e at
mos
pher
e. T
his s
peci
es th
rives
in st
agna
nt, o
xyge
n de
plet
ed b
ack-
wat
ers a
nd m
arsh
es. T
he n
orth
ern
snak
ehea
d lik
ely
poss
esse
s the
abi
lity
to
mig
rate
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay to
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck si
te, h
owev
er, i
ts p
refe
rred
hab
it is
not f
low
ing
wat
ers,
whi
ch w
ill li
kely
slow
its s
prea
d up
th
e M
ississ
ippi
Riv
er a
nd it
trib
utar
ies.
Unl
ike
the
Asia
n ca
rps,
nor
ther
n sn
akeh
eads
do
not m
ake
long
ups
trea
m sp
awni
ng ru
ns a
nd, a
s a re
sult,
are
no
t lik
ely
to sp
read
qui
ckly
thro
ugh
the
Miss
issip
pi R
iver
Bas
in w
ithou
t the
aid
of a
nthr
opog
enic
mea
ns.
And
y J.
- The
lack
of b
ackw
ater
and
mar
sh
area
s in
the
Upp
er O
hio
Rive
r, M
uski
ngum
, and
Wal
hond
ing
Rive
rs m
ay im
pede
the
mig
ratio
n of
the
snak
ehea
d to
the
path
way
.
Rem
arks
: 3B
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh O
ther
Mea
nsM
any
spec
ies o
f sna
kehe
ad, i
nclu
ding
the
nort
hern
snak
ehea
d, h
ave
been
pop
ular
aqu
ariu
m fi
sh. H
owev
er, i
n 20
02 th
e im
port
and
inte
rsta
te
tran
spor
t of n
orth
ern
snak
ehea
d w
as b
anne
d w
ithou
t a p
erm
it fr
om th
e U
.S. F
ish a
nd W
ildlif
e se
rvic
e (w
ww
.ans
task
forc
e.go
v).
Sinc
e th
e Li
ttle
Ki
llbuc
k sit
e is
an a
ctiv
e fa
rm c
onsis
ting
of c
onne
cted
dra
inag
e di
tche
s, it
is n
ot li
kely
that
fish
ing
or b
oatin
g w
ould
occ
ur a
t or r
elat
ivel
y ne
ar th
is lo
catio
n. A
cces
s by
the
gene
ral p
ublic
is li
mite
d to
veh
icul
ar tr
affic
thro
ugh
and
arou
nd th
e sit
e. C
onsid
erin
g th
ese
limita
tions
it is
hig
hly
unlik
ely
that
th
e no
rthe
rn sn
akeh
ead
will
arr
ive
at th
e di
vide
by
anth
ropo
geni
c m
eans
, suc
h as
live
wel
l or a
quar
ium
rele
ases
.
4. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S es
tabl
ishi
ng in
pro
xim
ity to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
RCM
ediu
mM
CHi
ghRC
High
MC
High
RCHi
ghRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3, F
ish M
gmt S
up.
Team
Rat
ings
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - N
orth
ern
Snak
ehea
d (C
hann
a ar
gus)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Th
e no
rthe
rn sn
akeh
ead'
s nat
ive
rang
e (la
t 24-
53o
N) a
nd te
mpe
ratu
re to
lera
nce
(0-3
0 oC
) ind
icat
es a
spec
ies t
hat,
if in
trod
uced
, cou
ld
esta
blish
pop
ulat
ions
thro
ugho
ut m
ost o
f the
con
tiguo
us U
nite
d St
ates
. N
orth
ern
snak
ehea
ds a
re n
atur
ally
agg
ress
ive
pred
ator
s tha
t cou
ld e
asily
ac
clim
ate
to th
e co
nditi
ons i
n an
d ar
ound
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck si
te a
s lon
g as
ther
e is
an a
mpl
e fo
od su
pply
, whi
ch a
ppea
rs to
be
the
case
. The
y ca
n be
ve
ry o
ppor
tuni
stic
in th
eir f
eedi
ng h
abits
, pre
ying
on
ever
ythi
ng fr
om in
sect
larv
ae to
fish
, fro
gs, a
nd c
rust
acea
ns. N
orth
ern
snak
ehea
ds p
refe
r sh
allo
w p
onds
and
mar
shes
with
aqu
atic
veg
etat
ion,
whi
ch is
sim
ilar t
o th
e aq
uatic
hab
itat a
djac
ent t
o Li
ttle
Kill
buck
. Ad
ditio
nally
, nor
ther
n sn
akeh
eads
agg
ress
ivel
y de
fend
thei
r nes
t and
you
ng fr
y, re
duci
ng p
reda
tion
on y
oung
snak
ehea
d by
oth
er fi
sh.
Andy
J. -
Ther
e ar
e so
me
conn
ecte
d w
etla
nds i
n th
e ar
ea, b
ut I
do n
ot b
elie
ve th
ey a
re e
xpan
sive
enou
gh to
supp
ort a
sust
aina
ble
popu
latio
n.
4. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
esta
blis
hing
in p
roxi
mity
to th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
plen
tiful
in c
lose
pro
xim
ity to
supp
ort a
ll lif
e st
ages
from
birt
h to
ad
ult,
abio
tic c
ondi
tions
alig
n w
ith n
ativ
e ra
nge
and
ther
e ar
e no
kno
wn
pred
ator
s or c
ondi
tions
that
wou
ld si
gnifi
cant
ly
impe
de su
rviv
abili
ty o
r rep
rodu
ctio
n.
Lim
ited
and
disc
onne
cted
are
as a
nd so
urce
s of f
ood
and
habi
tat s
uita
ble
to th
e AN
S ar
e av
aila
ble
in p
roxi
mity
, abi
otic
co
nditi
ons a
re w
ithin
latit
ude
limits
of n
ativ
e ra
nge,
but
onl
y a
port
ion
of th
e he
alth
y in
divi
dual
s arr
ivin
g at
loca
tion
can
be e
xpec
ted
to e
ffect
ivel
y co
mpe
te a
nd su
rviv
e.
Low
Habi
tat a
nd a
biot
ic c
ondi
tions
in p
roxi
mity
are
out
side
the
rang
e w
here
AN
S ha
s bee
n kn
own
to su
rviv
e; th
ere
is ve
ry
limite
d av
aila
bilit
y ha
bita
t are
a su
itabl
e fo
r AN
S co
ver,
sust
aina
ble
food
supp
ly a
nd re
prod
uctio
n; o
r nat
ive
pred
ator
s or
com
petit
ion
with
nat
ive
spec
ies w
ould
like
ly p
reve
nt e
stab
lishm
ent o
f a su
stai
nabl
e po
pula
tion.
5. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S sp
read
ing
acro
ss a
quat
ic p
athw
ay in
to th
e ne
w b
asin
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCRe
ason
ably
cer
tain
.M
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RURe
ason
ably
unc
erta
inVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - N
orth
ern
Snak
ehea
d (C
hann
a ar
gus)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3, F
ish M
gmt S
up.
Team
Rat
ings
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: The
hab
itat a
t the
pat
hway
itse
lf co
nsist
s of a
serie
s of c
onne
cted
spar
sely
veg
etat
ed a
gric
ultu
ral d
rain
age
ditc
hes w
hich
cre
ate
a pa
thw
ay
from
one
bas
in to
ano
ther
. It
is po
ssib
le th
at th
e no
rthe
rn sn
akeh
ead
coul
d su
rviv
e in
this
syst
em lo
ng e
noug
h to
tran
sfer
acr
oss t
he b
asin
und
er th
e pr
oper
con
ditio
ns.
A co
nver
satio
n w
ith th
e fa
rmer
/land
owne
r inf
orm
ed u
s tha
t he
has s
een
com
mon
car
p w
ithin
the
agric
ultu
ral d
rain
age
ditc
hes.
Du
ring
stor
m e
vent
s wat
er is
pum
ped
from
thes
e ag
ricul
tura
l ditc
hes i
nto
both
bas
ins.
A st
orm
eve
nt a
s min
imal
as a
5%
ann
ual r
etur
n st
orm
resu
lts
in si
gnifi
cant
por
tions
of t
his s
ite b
eing
inun
date
d an
d FE
MA
map
s disp
lay
the
entir
e sit
e in
unda
ted
from
a 1
00%
ann
ual r
etur
n st
orm
eve
nt.
Cons
ider
ing
thes
e fa
ctor
s, it
wou
ld b
e po
ssib
le fo
r the
nor
ther
n sn
akeh
ead
to tr
ansf
er a
cros
s bas
ins v
ia th
e ag
ricul
tura
l dra
inag
e di
tche
s if t
he
freq
uenc
y be
twee
n sig
nific
ant s
torm
eve
nts w
as w
ithin
a ti
mef
ram
e th
at w
ould
allo
w th
eir s
urvi
val w
ithin
this
syst
em. I
n ad
ditio
n, r
oads
ide
ditc
hes
alon
g Fr
anch
este
r Roa
d sp
an th
e di
vide
and
con
nect
bot
h ba
sins v
ia R
epp
Run
and
Clea
r Cre
ek.
The
resu
lts o
f the
stor
m e
vent
witn
esse
d du
ring
the
site
visit
disc
usse
d ea
rlier
in th
is re
port
des
crib
e th
is ar
ea a
s bei
ng in
unda
ted
and
wat
er fl
owin
g ac
ross
the
divi
de.
As a
n ai
r bre
athe
r tha
t has
eve
n be
en k
now
n to
mov
e sh
ort d
istan
ces o
ver l
and,
it is
like
ly th
is sp
ecie
s has
the
pote
ntia
l to
mov
e in
to a
nd o
ut o
f thi
s env
ironm
ent.
5. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
spre
adin
g ac
ross
aqu
atic
pat
hway
into
the
new
bas
in?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
avai
labl
e, a
nd th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ca
pabi
litie
s to
signi
fican
tly e
xpan
d ra
nge
from
loca
tions
whe
re in
itial
ly in
trod
uced
.
Ther
e ar
e lim
ited
sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d su
itabl
e ha
bita
t, an
d/or
the
spec
ies h
as d
emon
stra
ted
limite
d ab
ility
to sp
read
sig
nific
ant d
istan
ces b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
Ther
e ar
e se
vere
ly li
mite
d so
urce
s of f
ood
and
suita
ble
habi
tat,
and/
or th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ve
ry li
mite
d ab
ility
to
spre
ad b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
1. P
roba
bilit
y of
aqu
atic
pat
hway
exi
sten
ce
Ratin
g Fl
ow
into
GLB
Cert
aint
y Ra
ting
Flow
in
to M
RBCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RC
Mod
erat
ely
Cert
ain
MC
Reas
onab
ly U
ncer
tain
RU
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
Very
Unc
erta
in
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - T
hree
spin
e St
ickl
ebac
k (G
aste
rost
eus a
cule
atus
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtise
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RB-H
&H
Hyd
raul
ic E
ngin
eer
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
ODN
R - F
isher
ies B
iolo
gist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Team
Rat
ings
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Dur
ing
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
site
fiel
d vi
sit o
n M
ay 2
5 an
d 26
, 201
1 th
ere
was
a st
orm
that
pro
duce
d 2.
73 in
ches
of r
ain
over
a 2
4 ho
ur
perio
d. A
s a re
sult
of th
is st
orm
, roa
ds in
the
area
of c
once
rn w
ere
flood
ed a
nd th
ere
was
a v
isibl
e w
ater
way
con
nect
ion
betw
een
the
divi
de fr
om th
e Gr
eat L
akes
Bas
in a
nd th
e M
ississ
ippi
Riv
er B
asin
. It
is es
timat
ed th
at th
e st
orm
was
less
than
a 5
yea
r sto
rm e
vent
.
1. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e lik
elih
ood
of th
e ex
iste
nce
of a
via
ble
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
t the
subj
ect l
ocat
ion?
Ass
ume
a vi
able
aqu
atic
pat
hway
is a
ny
loca
tion
whe
re u
ntre
ated
surf
ace
wat
er fl
ow a
cros
s the
div
ide
is d
eem
ed li
kely
to o
ccur
and
conn
ect h
eadw
ater
stre
ams i
n bo
th b
asin
s fro
m a
ny
stor
m u
p to
the
1% a
nnua
l ret
urn
freq
uenc
y st
orm
.
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Pere
nnia
l str
eam
s and
wet
land
s or i
nter
mitt
ent s
trea
m k
now
n/do
cum
ente
d to
con
vey
signi
fican
t vol
umes
of w
ater
ac
ross
the
basin
div
ide
for d
ays t
o w
eeks
mul
tiple
tim
es p
er y
ear.
In
term
itten
t str
eam
cap
able
of m
aint
aini
ng a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n to
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e co
ntin
uous
ly fo
r mul
tiple
day
s fro
m a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m; o
r, lo
catio
n of
wet
land
span
ning
bas
in d
ivid
e w
hich
mai
ntai
ns si
gnifi
cant
pon
ds th
at a
re li
kely
to b
ecom
e in
ter c
onne
cted
and
con
nect
with
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f th
e ba
sin d
ivid
e fr
om a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Inte
rmitt
ent s
trea
m o
r mar
sh fo
rmin
g a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n be
twee
n st
ream
s on
eith
er si
de o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e fr
om la
rger
than
a 1
.0%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
2. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S oc
curr
ing
with
in e
ither
bas
inRa
ting
Cert
aint
y
High
VCHi
ghVC
High
VCHi
ghVC
High
VCHi
ghVC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - T
hree
spin
e St
ickl
ebac
k (G
aste
rost
eus a
cule
atus
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRH
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3,
Fish
Mgm
t Sup
.Te
am R
atin
g
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Th
e th
rees
pine
stic
kleb
ack
is fo
und
in e
ach
of th
e Gr
eat L
akes
and
has
bee
n co
llect
ed in
som
e in
land
rive
r sys
tem
s. L
itera
ture
indi
cate
s thi
s sp
ecie
s pre
fers
to li
ve in
smal
ler s
trea
ms b
ut m
ay o
ccur
in a
var
iety
of h
abita
t inc
ludi
ng la
kes a
nd la
rge
river
s.
2. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
occu
ring
with
in e
ither
bas
in?
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s in
clos
e en
ough
pro
xim
ity to
be
capa
ble
of m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
with
in 2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s, b
ut b
ased
on
curr
ent p
roxi
mity
and
mob
ility
, is c
onsid
ered
inca
pabl
e of
m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay w
ithin
20
year
s.
Targ
et A
NS
is no
t kno
wn
to e
xist
on
a co
nnec
ted
wat
erw
ay.
3. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
3A R
atin
g Ce
rtai
nty
3B R
atin
gCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
The
thre
espi
ne st
ickl
ebac
k ha
s bee
n fo
und
in th
e G
reat
Lak
es a
nd in
smal
ler r
iver
syst
ems.
Obs
tacl
es in
the
Blac
k Ri
ver s
houl
d be
suffi
cien
t in
impe
ding
mig
ratio
n of
the
thre
espi
ne st
ickl
ebac
k at
nor
mal
and
low
flow
s. A
s the
se o
bsta
cles
bec
ome
inun
date
d du
ring
high
flow
eve
nts,
the
stic
kleb
ack
may
hav
e am
ple
oppo
rtun
ity to
mov
e up
stre
am. H
owev
er, i
t is l
ikel
y th
at th
is sp
ecie
s will
seek
refu
ge fr
om h
igh
velo
citie
s ins
tead
of
expe
ndin
g en
ergy
att
empt
ing
to m
ove
upst
ream
. It i
s lik
ely
that
suffi
cien
t for
age
and
habi
tat i
s ava
ilabl
e th
roug
hout
the
Blac
k Ri
ver a
nd it
's tr
ibut
arie
s fo
r the
thre
espi
ne st
ickl
ebac
k.Re
mar
ks:
3B. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S Su
rviv
ing
Tran
sit to
Aqu
atic
Pat
hway
Thr
ough
Oth
er M
eans
It is
belie
ved
that
bai
t-bu
cket
tran
spor
t has
aid
ed in
the
mov
emen
t of t
he th
rees
pine
stic
kleb
ack
in th
e pa
st.
How
ever
, sin
ce fi
shin
g an
d bo
atin
g ar
e re
altiv
ely
unco
mm
on in
the
vici
nity
of t
he C
lear
Cre
ek, i
t is h
ighl
y un
likel
y th
at th
e sp
ecie
s will
arr
ive
at th
e di
vide
by
anth
ropo
geni
c m
eans
.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: 3A
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh C
onne
ctin
g St
ream
s.
3A.
How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
conn
ectin
g st
ream
s?3B
. How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
othe
r mea
ns?
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed in
rela
tivel
y cl
ose
prox
imity
to lo
catio
n an
d ha
ve a
mpl
e op
port
unity
, cap
abili
ty a
nd
mot
ivat
ion
to su
cces
sful
ly n
avig
ate
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
nd/o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect
path
way
with
in 1
0-20
yea
rs.
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed a
t loc
atio
ns in
clo
se e
noug
h pr
oxim
ity to
loca
tion
and
have
lim
ited
capa
bilit
y to
surv
ive
pass
age
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
20-
50 y
ears
.
Targ
et A
NS
are
not i
n pr
oxim
ity to
the
path
way
, and
/or i
t is h
ighl
y un
likel
y th
at th
ey c
ould
surv
ive
tran
sit fr
om c
urre
nt
loca
tions
by
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
nex
t 50
year
s.
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - T
hree
spin
e St
ickl
ebac
k (G
aste
rost
eus a
cule
atus
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRH
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3,
Fish
Mgm
t Sup
.Te
am R
atin
gs
4. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S es
tabl
ishi
ng in
pro
xim
ity to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
Med
ium
MC
High
MC
High
MC
Med
ium
MC
Med
ium
MC
Med
ium
MC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RH -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3, F
ish M
gmt S
up.
Team
Rat
ings
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - T
hree
spin
e St
ickl
ebac
k (G
aste
rost
eus a
cule
atus
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtise
Posit
ion
title
or t
eam
role
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: As
a v
isual
pre
dato
r, th
e tu
rbid
wat
ers o
f net
wor
k of
agr
icul
tura
l diti
ches
may
be
unsu
itabl
e fo
r the
thre
espi
ne st
ickl
ebac
k. S
urvi
val o
f a
viab
le, r
epro
duci
ng p
opul
atio
n of
the
thre
espi
ned
stic
kleb
ack
with
in th
e ag
ricul
tura
l ditc
h ne
twor
k m
ay b
e un
likel
y du
e lo
w w
ater
qua
lity
and
high
te
mpe
ratu
res i
n su
mm
er m
onth
s. H
owev
er, C
lear
Cre
ek m
ay p
rovi
de su
ffici
ent h
abita
t for
occ
upat
ion
of th
is sp
ecie
s unt
il a
suita
ble
stor
m e
vent
oc
curr
ed a
nd th
e fis
h co
uld
pass
into
the
ditc
h ne
twor
k.
4. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
esta
blis
hing
in p
roxi
mity
to th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
plen
tiful
in c
lose
pro
xim
ity to
supp
ort a
ll lif
e st
ages
from
birt
h to
ad
ult,
abio
tic c
ondi
tions
alig
n w
ith n
ativ
e ra
nge
and
ther
e ar
e no
kno
wn
pred
ator
s or c
ondi
tions
that
wou
ld si
gnifi
cant
ly
impe
de su
rviv
abili
ty o
r rep
rodu
ctio
n.
Lim
ited
and
disc
onne
cted
are
as a
nd so
urce
s of f
ood
and
habi
tat s
uita
ble
to th
e AN
S ar
e av
aila
ble
in p
roxi
mity
, abi
otic
co
nditi
ons a
re w
ithin
latit
ude
limits
of n
ativ
e ra
nge,
but
onl
y a
port
ion
of th
e he
alth
y in
divi
dual
s arr
ivin
g at
loca
tion
can
be e
xpec
ted
to e
ffect
ivel
y co
mpe
te a
nd su
rviv
e.
Low
Habi
tat a
nd a
biot
ic c
ondi
tions
in p
roxi
mity
are
out
side
the
rang
e w
here
AN
S ha
s bee
n kn
own
to su
rviv
e; th
ere
is ve
ry
limite
d av
aila
bilit
y ha
bita
t are
a su
itabl
e fo
r AN
S co
ver,
sust
aina
ble
food
supp
ly a
nd re
prod
uctio
n; o
r nat
ive
pred
ator
s or
com
petit
ion
with
nat
ive
spec
ies w
ould
like
ly p
reve
nt e
stab
lishm
ent o
f a su
stai
nabl
e po
pula
tion.
5. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S sp
read
ing
acro
ss a
quat
ic p
athw
ay in
to th
e ne
w b
asin
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCRe
ason
ably
cer
tain
.M
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RURe
ason
ably
unc
erta
inVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: The
thre
espi
ne st
ickl
ebac
k ha
s bee
n fo
und
in sm
alle
r riv
er sy
stem
s and
dow
nstr
eam
mig
ratio
n th
roug
h th
e Li
ttle
Kill
buck
Cre
ek w
ould
be
likel
y.
5. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
spre
adin
g ac
ross
aqu
atic
pat
hway
into
the
new
bas
in?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
avai
labl
e, a
nd th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ca
pabi
litie
s to
signi
fican
tly e
xpan
d ra
nge
from
loca
tions
whe
re in
itial
ly in
trod
uced
.
Ther
e ar
e lim
ited
sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d su
itabl
e ha
bita
t, an
d/or
the
spec
ies h
as d
emon
stra
ted
limite
d ab
ility
to sp
read
sig
nific
ant d
istan
ces b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
Ther
e ar
e se
vere
ly li
mite
d so
urce
s of f
ood
and
suita
ble
habi
tat,
and/
or th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ve
ry li
mite
d ab
ility
to
spre
ad b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - T
hree
spin
e St
ickl
ebac
k (G
aste
rost
eus a
cule
atus
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRH
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3,
Fish
Mgm
t Sup
.Te
am R
atin
gs
1. P
roba
bilit
y of
aqu
atic
pat
hway
exi
sten
ce
Ratin
g Fl
ow
into
GLB
Cert
aint
y Ra
ting
Flow
in
to M
RBCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RC
Mod
erat
ely
Cert
ain
MC
Reas
onab
ly U
ncer
tain
RU
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
Very
Unc
erta
in
VU
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Dur
ing
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
site
fiel
d vi
sit o
n M
ay 2
5 an
d 26
, 201
1 th
ere
was
a st
orm
that
pro
duce
d 2.
73 in
ches
of r
ain
over
a 2
4 ho
ur
perio
d. A
s a re
sult
of th
is st
orm
, roa
ds in
the
area
of c
once
rn w
ere
flood
ed a
nd th
ere
was
a v
isibl
e w
ater
way
con
nect
ion
betw
een
the
divi
de fr
om
the
Grea
t Lak
es B
asin
and
the
Miss
issip
pi R
iver
Bas
in.
It is
estim
ated
that
the
stor
m w
as le
ss th
an a
5 y
ear s
torm
eve
nt.
1. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e lik
elih
ood
of th
e ex
iste
nce
of a
via
ble
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
t the
subj
ect l
ocat
ion?
Ass
ume
a vi
able
aqu
atic
pat
hway
is a
ny
loca
tion
whe
re u
ntre
ated
surf
ace
wat
er fl
ow a
cros
s the
div
ide
is d
eem
ed li
kely
to o
ccur
and
con
nect
hea
dwat
er st
ream
s in
both
bas
ins f
rom
any
st
orm
up
to th
e 1%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Pere
nnia
l str
eam
s and
wet
land
s or i
nter
mitt
ent s
trea
m k
now
n/do
cum
ente
d to
con
vey
signi
fican
t vol
umes
of w
ater
ac
ross
the
basin
div
ide
for d
ays t
o w
eeks
mul
tiple
tim
es p
er y
ear.
In
term
itten
t str
eam
cap
able
of m
aint
aini
ng a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n to
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e co
ntin
uous
ly fo
r mul
tiple
day
s fro
m a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m; o
r, lo
catio
n of
wet
land
span
ning
bas
in d
ivid
e w
hich
mai
ntai
ns si
gnifi
cant
pon
ds th
at a
re li
kely
to b
ecom
e in
ter c
onne
cted
and
con
nect
with
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f th
e ba
sin d
ivid
e fr
om a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Inte
rmitt
ent s
trea
m o
r mar
sh fo
rmin
g a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n be
twee
n st
ream
s on
eith
er si
de o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e fr
om la
rger
than
a 1
.0%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - R
uffe
(Gym
noch
epha
lus c
ernu
us) /
Tub
enos
e Go
by (P
rote
rorh
inus
se
milu
naris
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RB-H
&H
Hyd
raul
ic E
ngin
eer
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
ODN
R - F
isher
ies B
iolo
gist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Team
Rat
ings
2. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S oc
curr
ing
with
in e
ither
bas
inRa
ting
Cert
aint
y
High
MC
High
MC
High
MC
High
MC
High
MC
High
MC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Th
e ru
ffe a
nd tu
beno
se g
oby
are
loca
ted
with
in th
e Gr
eat L
akes
and
ass
ocia
ted
with
rive
r mou
ths a
nd e
stua
ries o
f lar
ge ri
ver s
yste
ms
ente
ring
the
Grea
t Lak
es.
To d
ate,
the
ruffe
has
not
bee
n id
entif
ied
with
in L
ake
Erie
but
the
fish
has e
xten
ded
its ra
nge
rapi
dly
and
mod
elin
g pr
edic
ts
it w
ill fi
nd su
itabl
e ha
bita
t in
all f
ive
Grea
t Lak
es. L
itera
ture
revi
ews a
nd a
ctua
l fish
surv
ey d
ata
have
not
doc
umen
ted
the
colle
ctio
n of
the
ruffe
in
smal
ler u
pstr
eam
trib
utar
ies.
The
tube
nose
gob
y's i
ntro
duce
d ra
nge
cove
rs th
ree
Grea
t Lak
es in
clud
ing
Lake
Sup
erio
r, Er
ie a
nd H
uron
. It h
as b
een
colle
cted
in th
e lo
wer
reac
hes o
f lar
ger G
reat
Lak
es ri
vers
and
est
uarie
s.
2. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
occu
ring
with
in e
ither
bas
in?
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s in
clos
e en
ough
pro
xim
ity to
be
capa
ble
of m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
with
in 2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s, b
ut b
ased
on
curr
ent p
roxi
mity
and
mob
ility
, is c
onsid
ered
inca
pabl
e of
m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay w
ithin
20
year
s.
Targ
et A
NS
is no
t kno
wn
to e
xist
on
a co
nnec
ted
wat
erw
ay.
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRH
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3,
Fish
Mgm
t Sup
.Te
am R
atin
g
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - R
uffe
(Gym
noch
epha
lus c
ernu
us) /
Tub
enos
e Go
by (P
rote
rorh
inus
se
milu
naris
)
3. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
3A R
atin
g Ce
rtai
nty
3B R
atin
gCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Low
RC
Low
RCM
ediu
mRC
Low
RC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
The
ruffe
pre
fers
dee
p w
ater
s of l
akes
and
poo
ls of
rive
rs, u
sual
ly o
ver s
and
and
grav
els b
ut h
as a
tole
ranc
e fo
r diff
eren
t hab
itats
and
env
ironm
enta
l co
nditi
ons.
The
ruffe
has
a h
igh
fecu
ndity
rate
and
spaw
ns in
cle
an w
ater
. The
ruffe
's ab
ility
to sw
im u
pstr
eam
dur
ing
high
flow
eve
nts a
nd m
igra
te
over
dam
s is q
uest
iona
ble.
The
tube
nose
gob
y is
foun
d in
the
open
wat
ers a
nd e
stua
ries o
f slo
w fl
owin
g riv
ers.
The
abi
lity
of th
e go
by to
swim
up
stre
am d
urin
g hi
gh fl
ow e
vent
s and
mig
rate
ove
r dam
s is q
uest
iona
ble
but a
ppea
rs to
be
mor
e ca
pabl
e of
livi
ng in
mor
e va
ried
type
s of r
iver
ine
habi
tat t
han
the
ruffe
. O
bsta
cles
in th
e Bl
ack
Rive
r sho
uld
be su
ffici
ent i
n im
pedi
ng m
igra
tion
of b
oth
spec
ies a
t nor
mal
and
low
flow
s. A
s the
se
obst
acle
s bec
ome
inun
date
d du
ring
high
flow
eve
nts,
both
spec
ies m
ay h
ave
oppo
rtun
ity to
mov
e up
stre
am. H
owev
er, i
t is l
ikel
y th
at th
is sp
ecie
s w
ill se
ek re
fuge
from
hig
h ve
loci
ties i
nste
ad o
f exp
endi
ng e
nerg
y at
tem
ptin
g to
mov
e up
stre
am.
Rem
arks
: 3B
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh O
ther
Mea
nsIt
is be
lieve
d th
at b
ait-b
ucke
t tra
nspo
rt h
as a
ided
in th
e m
ovem
ent o
f the
ruffe
and
gob
y in
the
past
. Ho
wev
er, s
ince
fish
ing
and
boat
ing
are
real
tivel
y un
com
mon
in th
e vi
cini
ty o
f the
Cle
ar C
reek
, it i
s hig
hly
unlik
ely
that
the
spec
ies w
ill a
rriv
e at
the
divi
de b
y an
thro
poge
nic
mea
ns.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: 3A
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh C
onne
ctin
g St
ream
s.
3A.
How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
conn
ectin
g st
ream
s?3B
. How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
othe
r mea
ns?
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed in
rela
tivel
y cl
ose
prox
imity
to lo
catio
n an
d ha
ve a
mpl
e op
port
unity
, cap
abili
ty a
nd
mot
ivat
ion
to su
cces
sful
ly n
avig
ate
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
nd/o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect
path
way
with
in 1
0-20
yea
rs.
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed a
t loc
atio
ns in
clo
se e
noug
h pr
oxim
ity to
loca
tion
and
have
lim
ited
capa
bilit
y to
surv
ive
pass
age
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
20-
50 y
ears
.
Targ
et A
NS
are
not i
n pr
oxim
ity to
the
path
way
, and
/or i
t is h
ighl
y un
likel
y th
at th
ey c
ould
surv
ive
tran
sit fr
om c
urre
nt
loca
tions
by
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
nex
t 50
year
s.
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - R
uffe
(Gym
noch
epha
lus c
ernu
us) /
Tub
enos
e G
oby
(Pro
tero
rhin
us
sem
iluna
ris)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RH -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3, F
ish M
gmt S
up.
Team
Rat
ings
4. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S es
tabl
ishi
ng in
pro
xim
ity to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
Med
ium
MC
Med
ium
MC
Med
ium
MC
Med
ium
MC
Med
ium
MC
Med
ium
MC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RH -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3, F
ish M
gmt S
up.
Team
Rat
ings
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - R
uffe
(Gym
noch
epha
lus c
ernu
us) /
Tub
enos
e Go
by (P
rote
rorh
inus
se
milu
naris
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
le
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Th
e ru
ffe is
an
aggr
essiv
e sp
ecie
s tha
t pos
sess
es th
e ab
ility
to fe
ed in
dar
knes
s, co
ld te
mpe
ratu
res a
nd tu
rbid
con
ditio
ns. T
he tu
beno
se
goby
is a
ben
thic
spec
ies t
hat c
onsu
me
a w
ide
varie
ty o
f inv
erte
brat
es. T
hey
are
ofte
n qu
ite a
bund
ant i
n ba
ckw
ater
s and
lake
s and
seem
to p
refe
r de
nse
vege
tatio
n. C
lear
Cre
ek is
unl
ikel
y to
pro
vide
suffi
cien
t hab
itat f
or e
ither
spec
ies.
Fur
ther
mor
e, su
rviv
al o
f a v
iabl
e, re
prod
ucin
g po
pula
tion
of
ruffe
and
tube
nose
gob
y w
ithin
the
agric
ultu
ral d
itch
netw
ork
may
be
unlik
ely
due
low
wat
er q
ualit
y an
d hi
gh te
mpe
ratu
res i
n su
mm
er m
onth
s.
4. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
esta
blis
hing
in p
roxi
mity
to th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
plen
tiful
in c
lose
pro
xim
ity to
supp
ort a
ll lif
e st
ages
from
birt
h to
ad
ult,
abio
tic c
ondi
tions
alig
n w
ith n
ativ
e ra
nge
and
ther
e ar
e no
kno
wn
pred
ator
s or c
ondi
tions
that
wou
ld si
gnifi
cant
ly
impe
de su
rviv
abili
ty o
r rep
rodu
ctio
n.
Lim
ited
and
disc
onne
cted
are
as a
nd so
urce
s of f
ood
and
habi
tat s
uita
ble
to th
e AN
S ar
e av
aila
ble
in p
roxi
mity
, abi
otic
co
nditi
ons a
re w
ithin
latit
ude
limits
of n
ativ
e ra
nge,
but
onl
y a
port
ion
of th
e he
alth
y in
divi
dual
s arr
ivin
g at
loca
tion
can
be e
xpec
ted
to e
ffect
ivel
y co
mpe
te a
nd su
rviv
e.
Low
Habi
tat a
nd a
biot
ic c
ondi
tions
in p
roxi
mity
are
out
side
the
rang
e w
here
AN
S ha
s bee
n kn
own
to su
rviv
e; th
ere
is ve
ry
limite
d av
aila
bilit
y ha
bita
t are
a su
itabl
e fo
r AN
S co
ver,
sust
aina
ble
food
supp
ly a
nd re
prod
uctio
n; o
r nat
ive
pred
ator
s or
com
petit
ion
with
nat
ive
spec
ies w
ould
like
ly p
reve
nt e
stab
lishm
ent o
f a su
stai
nabl
e po
pula
tion.
5. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S sp
read
ing
acro
ss a
quat
ic p
athw
ay in
to th
e ne
w b
asin
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCRe
ason
ably
cer
tain
.M
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RURe
ason
ably
unc
erta
inVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Ruf
fe a
nd th
e tu
beno
se g
oby
have
not
bee
n fo
und
in st
ream
syst
ems s
imila
r to
the
Clea
r Cre
ek a
nd L
ittle
Kill
buck
Cre
ek, b
ut c
ould
like
ly
still
pas
s thr
ough
the
path
way
giv
en th
e ac
tive
pum
ping
/irrig
atio
n.
5. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
spre
adin
g ac
ross
aqu
atic
pat
hway
into
the
new
bas
in?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
avai
labl
e, a
nd th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ca
pabi
litie
s to
signi
fican
tly e
xpan
d ra
nge
from
loca
tions
whe
re in
itial
ly in
trod
uced
.
Ther
e ar
e lim
ited
sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d su
itabl
e ha
bita
t, an
d/or
the
spec
ies h
as d
emon
stra
ted
limite
d ab
ility
to sp
read
sig
nific
ant d
istan
ces b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
Ther
e ar
e se
vere
ly li
mite
d so
urce
s of f
ood
and
suita
ble
habi
tat,
and/
or th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ve
ry li
mite
d ab
ility
to
spre
ad b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - R
uffe
(Gym
noch
epha
lus c
ernu
us) /
Tub
enos
e Go
by (P
rote
rorh
inus
se
milu
naris
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRH
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3,
Fish
Mgm
t Sup
.Te
am R
atin
gs
1. P
roba
bilit
y of
aqu
atic
pat
hway
exi
sten
ce
Ratin
g Fl
ow
into
GLB
Cert
aint
y Ra
ting
Flow
in
to M
RBCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RC
Mod
erat
ely
Cert
ain
MC
Reas
onab
ly U
ncer
tain
RU
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
Very
Unc
erta
in
VU
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Dur
ing
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
site
fiel
d vi
sit o
n M
ay 2
5 an
d 26
, 201
1 th
ere
was
a st
orm
that
pro
duce
d 2.
73 in
ches
of r
ain
over
a 2
4 ho
ur
perio
d. A
s a re
sult
of th
is st
orm
, roa
ds in
the
area
of c
once
rn w
ere
flood
ed a
nd th
ere
was
a v
isibl
e w
ater
way
con
nect
ion
betw
een
the
divi
de fr
om th
e Gr
eat L
akes
Bas
in a
nd th
e M
ississ
ippi
Riv
er B
asin
. It
is es
timat
ed th
at th
e st
orm
was
less
than
a 5
yea
r sto
rm e
vent
.
1. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e lik
elih
ood
of th
e ex
iste
nce
of a
via
ble
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
t the
subj
ect l
ocat
ion?
Ass
ume
a vi
able
aqu
atic
pat
hway
is a
ny
loca
tion
whe
re u
ntre
ated
surf
ace
wat
er fl
ow a
cros
s the
div
ide
is d
eem
ed li
kely
to o
ccur
and
con
nect
hea
dwat
er st
ream
s in
both
bas
ins f
rom
any
st
orm
up
to th
e 1%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Pere
nnia
l str
eam
s and
wet
land
s or i
nter
mitt
ent s
trea
m k
now
n/do
cum
ente
d to
con
vey
signi
fican
t vol
umes
of w
ater
ac
ross
the
basin
div
ide
for d
ays t
o w
eeks
mul
tiple
tim
es p
er y
ear.
In
term
itten
t str
eam
cap
able
of m
aint
aini
ng a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n to
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e co
ntin
uous
ly fo
r mul
tiple
day
s fro
m a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m; o
r, lo
catio
n of
wet
land
span
ning
bas
in d
ivid
e w
hich
mai
ntai
ns si
gnifi
cant
pon
ds th
at a
re li
kely
to b
ecom
e in
ter c
onne
cted
and
con
nect
with
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f th
e ba
sin d
ivid
e fr
om a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Inte
rmitt
ent s
trea
m o
r mar
sh fo
rmin
g a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n be
twee
n st
ream
s on
eith
er si
de o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e fr
om la
rger
than
a 1
.0%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - E
urop
ean
finge
rnai
l cla
m (S
phae
rium
corn
eum
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
le
USA
CE L
RB-H
&H
Hyd
raul
ic E
ngin
eer
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
ODN
R - F
isher
ies B
iolo
gist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Team
Rat
ings
2. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S oc
curr
ing
with
in e
ither
bas
inRa
ting
Cert
aint
y
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3 Fi
sh M
gt. S
up.
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Th
e cl
am w
as fi
rst f
ound
in th
e Gr
eat L
akes
bas
in in
Lak
e O
ntar
io in
192
4. It
is c
onsid
ered
to b
e es
tabl
ished
in L
akes
Erie
and
Ont
ario
and
ha
s bee
n re
cord
ed in
Lak
es M
ichi
gan
and
Supe
rior,
Rice
Lak
e (w
hich
is p
art o
f the
Tre
nt-S
ever
n Ca
nal s
yste
m c
onne
ctin
g La
ke H
uron
and
Lak
e O
ntar
io),
and
Lak
e Hu
ron,
alth
ough
it is
ver
y un
com
mon
in L
ake
Huro
n. I
t is f
ound
in fr
eshw
ater
lake
s and
slow
-mov
ing
river
s.
2. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
occu
ring
with
in e
ither
bas
in?
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s in
clos
e en
ough
pro
xim
ity to
be
capa
ble
of m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
with
in 2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s, b
ut b
ased
on
curr
ent p
roxi
mity
and
mob
ility
, is c
onsid
ered
inca
pabl
e of
m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay w
ithin
20
year
s.
Targ
et A
NS
is no
t kno
wn
to e
xist
on
a co
nnec
ted
wat
erw
ay.
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRH
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
ist
Team
Rat
ing
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - E
urop
ean
finge
rnai
l cla
m (S
phae
rium
corn
eum
)
3. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
3A R
atin
g Ce
rtai
nty
3B R
atin
gCe
rtai
nty
Low
RC
Low
RCLo
wRC
Low
RCLo
wRC
Low
RCLo
wRC
Low
RCDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3
Fish
Mgt
. Sup
.Lo
wRC
Low
RCLo
wRC
Low
RC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
It is
belie
ved
that
tran
spor
t by
hard
bal
last
has
aid
ed in
the
mov
emen
t of t
he E
urop
ean
finge
rnai
l cla
m in
the
past
. Ha
rd b
alla
st is
not
com
mon
ly u
sed
anym
ore
and
the
trib
utar
ies o
f the
Bla
ck R
iver
are
too
smal
l for
com
mer
cial
boa
ts.
Thus
the
mos
t lik
ely
form
of t
rans
port
toda
y w
ould
be
by
recr
eatio
nal b
oatin
g. H
owev
er, t
he c
lam
doe
s not
tole
rate
des
sicat
ion
wel
l and
the
path
way
is a
ppro
xim
atel
y 40
mile
s fro
m L
ake
Erie
whi
ch g
reat
ly
low
ers t
he c
hanc
e of
any
cla
ms b
eing
aliv
e if
they
wer
e at
tach
ed to
the
boat
or o
n ve
geta
tion
that
was
att
ache
d to
the
boat
or t
raile
r. In
add
ition
, fis
hing
and
boa
ting
are
real
tivel
y un
com
mon
in th
e vi
cini
ty o
f the
Cle
ar C
reek
, thu
s it i
s hig
hly
unlik
ely
that
the
spec
ies w
ill a
rriv
e at
the
divi
de b
y an
thro
poge
nic
mea
ns.
It a
lso h
as b
een
show
n th
at th
e co
mm
on to
ad c
an a
id in
tran
spor
ting
S. c
orne
um to
new
wat
ers i
n Eu
rope
. The
pot
entia
l tha
t th
e cl
am c
ould
be
tran
spor
ted
by a
mph
ibia
ns h
as n
ot b
een
dem
onst
rate
d in
the
Grea
t Lak
es a
nd w
ould
be
rela
tivel
y lo
w.
Rem
arks
: 3B
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh O
ther
Mea
nsTh
ere
is po
or re
crea
tiona
l opp
ortu
nity
nea
r the
pat
hway
. Th
eref
ore,
ther
e is
a ve
ry lo
w c
hanc
e fo
r oth
er a
nthr
opog
enic
or n
atur
al m
eans
of t
rans
fer.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: 3A
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh C
onne
ctin
g St
ream
s.
3A.
How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
conn
ectin
g st
ream
s?3B
. How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
othe
r mea
ns?
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed in
rela
tivel
y cl
ose
prox
imity
to lo
catio
n an
d ha
ve a
mpl
e op
port
unity
, cap
abili
ty a
nd m
otiv
atio
n to
succ
essf
ully
nav
igat
e th
roug
h th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
and
/or t
hrou
gh o
ther
mea
ns to
arr
ive
at th
e su
bjec
t pat
hway
with
in
10-2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed a
t loc
atio
ns in
clo
se e
noug
h pr
oxim
ity to
loca
tion
and
have
lim
ited
capa
bilit
y to
surv
ive
pass
age
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
20-
50 y
ears
.
Targ
et A
NS
are
not i
n pr
oxim
ity to
the
path
way
, and
/or i
t is h
ighl
y un
likel
y th
at th
ey c
ould
surv
ive
tran
sit fr
om c
urre
nt
loca
tions
by
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
nex
t 50
year
s.
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - E
urop
ean
finge
rnai
l cla
m (S
phae
rium
corn
eum
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RH -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Team
Rat
ings
4. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S es
tabl
ishi
ng in
pro
xim
ity to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
Med
ium
MC
Med
ium
MC
Low
MC
Med
ium
MC
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3 Fi
sh M
gt. S
up.
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mM
C
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RH -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Team
Rat
ings
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - E
urop
ean
finge
rnai
l cla
m (S
phae
rium
corn
eum
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: The
cla
m o
ften
pre
fers
som
ewha
t eut
roph
ied,
mor
e le
ntic
hab
itat a
nd h
as b
een
sam
pled
from
wat
er w
ith te
mpe
ratu
res r
angi
ng fr
om ~
2 –
25 °C
. It
also
has
a h
igh
capa
city
for a
naer
obio
sis a
nd is
abl
e to
surv
ive
anox
ic c
ondi
tions
for a
roun
d 40
0 da
ys a
t 0oC
and
for 9
day
s at 2
0oC.
The
cl
am p
refe
rs h
ard
wat
ers w
ith h
igh
mag
nesiu
m, c
alci
um, a
nd b
icar
bona
te c
once
ntra
tions
and
is fo
und
on fi
ne sa
nd, m
ud, s
ilt, o
rgan
ic m
atte
r, an
d so
met
imes
on
grav
el.
It is
mai
nly
a fil
ter f
eede
r fee
ding
mai
nly
on d
iato
ms a
nd o
ther
type
s of p
hyto
plan
kton
but
can
also
dep
osit
feed
on
detr
itus
from
the
subs
trat
um.
Surv
ival
of a
via
ble,
repr
oduc
ing
popu
latio
n of
the
Euro
pean
fing
erna
il cl
am w
ithin
the
agric
ultu
ral d
itch
netw
ork
at th
e pa
thw
ay m
ay b
e un
likel
y du
e to
hig
h or
gani
c co
ncen
trat
ions
from
the
adja
cent
farm
ing
oper
atio
ns, h
igh
tem
pera
ture
s, a
nd lo
w w
ater
leve
ls in
su
mm
er m
onth
s. H
owev
er, C
lear
Cre
ek m
ay p
rovi
de su
ffici
ent h
abita
t for
occ
upat
ion
of th
is sp
ecie
s in
clos
e pr
oxim
ity.
Curr
ie: H
igh
leve
ls of
or
gani
cs fr
om m
uck
soils
cou
pled
with
hig
h se
ason
al w
ater
tem
pera
ture
s and
pot
entia
l for
ext
ende
d pe
riods
of d
ryin
g w
ould
be
detr
imen
tal t
o es
tabl
ishm
ent o
f a v
iabl
e po
pula
tion
with
in th
e ag
ricul
tura
l ditc
h ne
twor
k an
d w
etla
nds a
djac
ent t
o Cl
ear C
reek
.
4. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
esta
blis
hing
in p
roxi
mity
to th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
plen
tiful
in c
lose
pro
xim
ity to
supp
ort a
ll lif
e st
ages
from
birt
h to
ad
ult,
abio
tic c
ondi
tions
alig
n w
ith n
ativ
e ra
nge
and
ther
e ar
e no
kno
wn
pred
ator
s or c
ondi
tions
that
wou
ld si
gnifi
cant
ly
impe
de su
rviv
abili
ty o
r rep
rodu
ctio
n.
Lim
ited
and
disc
onne
cted
are
as a
nd so
urce
s of f
ood
and
habi
tat s
uita
ble
to th
e AN
S ar
e av
aila
ble
in p
roxi
mity
, abi
otic
co
nditi
ons a
re w
ithin
latit
ude
limits
of n
ativ
e ra
nge,
but
onl
y a
port
ion
of th
e he
alth
y in
divi
dual
s arr
ivin
g at
loca
tion
can
be e
xpec
ted
to e
ffect
ivel
y co
mpe
te a
nd su
rviv
e.
Low
Habi
tat a
nd a
biot
ic c
ondi
tions
in p
roxi
mity
are
out
side
the
rang
e w
here
AN
S ha
s bee
n kn
own
to su
rviv
e; th
ere
is ve
ry
limite
d av
aila
bilit
y ha
bita
t are
a su
itabl
e fo
r AN
S co
ver,
sust
aina
ble
food
supp
ly a
nd re
prod
uctio
n; o
r nat
ive
pred
ator
s or
com
petit
ion
with
nat
ive
spec
ies w
ould
like
ly p
reve
nt e
stab
lishm
ent o
f a su
stai
nabl
e po
pula
tion.
5. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S sp
read
ing
acro
ss a
quat
ic p
athw
ay in
to th
e ne
w b
asin
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
RCHi
ghM
CHi
ghRC
High
RCDi
visio
n of
Wild
life,
D3
Fish
Mgt
. Sup
.Hi
ghRC
High
RC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCRe
ason
ably
cer
tain
.M
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RURe
ason
ably
unc
erta
inVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: The
Eur
opea
n fin
gern
ail c
lam
has
bee
n fo
und
in sm
alle
r riv
ers a
nd c
anal
s inc
ludi
ng d
itche
s and
mov
emen
t thr
ough
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
w
ould
be
likel
y. It
is p
ossib
le th
at li
fe h
istor
y re
quire
men
ts o
f Eur
opea
n fin
gern
ail c
lam
cou
ld b
e m
et in
Litt
le K
illbu
ck.
5. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
spre
adin
g ac
ross
aqu
atic
pat
hway
into
the
new
bas
in?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
avai
labl
e, a
nd th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ca
pabi
litie
s to
signi
fican
tly e
xpan
d ra
nge
from
loca
tions
whe
re in
itial
ly in
trod
uced
.
Ther
e ar
e lim
ited
sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d su
itabl
e ha
bita
t, an
d/or
the
spec
ies h
as d
emon
stra
ted
limite
d ab
ility
to sp
read
sig
nific
ant d
istan
ces b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
Ther
e ar
e se
vere
ly li
mite
d so
urce
s of f
ood
and
suita
ble
habi
tat,
and/
or th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ve
ry li
mite
d ab
ility
to
spre
ad b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - E
urop
ean
finge
rnai
l cla
m (S
phae
rium
corn
eum
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRH
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
ist
Team
Rat
ings
1. P
roba
bilit
y of
aqu
atic
pat
hway
exi
sten
ce
Ratin
g Fl
ow
into
GLB
Cert
aint
y Ra
ting
Flow
in
to M
RBCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RC
Mod
erat
ely
Cert
ain
MC
Reas
onab
ly U
ncer
tain
RU
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
Very
Unc
erta
in
VU
1. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e lik
elih
ood
of th
e ex
iste
nce
of a
via
ble
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
t the
subj
ect l
ocat
ion?
Ass
ume
a vi
able
aqu
atic
pat
hway
is a
ny
loca
tion
whe
re u
ntre
ated
surf
ace
wat
er fl
ow a
cros
s the
div
ide
is d
eem
ed li
kely
to o
ccur
and
con
nect
hea
dwat
er st
ream
s in
both
bas
ins f
rom
any
st
orm
up
to th
e 1%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Pere
nnia
l str
eam
s and
wet
land
s or i
nter
mitt
ent s
trea
m k
now
n/do
cum
ente
d to
con
vey
signi
fican
t vol
umes
of w
ater
ac
ross
the
basin
div
ide
for d
ays t
o w
eeks
mul
tiple
tim
es p
er y
ear.
In
term
itten
t str
eam
cap
able
of m
aint
aini
ng a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n to
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e co
ntin
uous
ly fo
r mul
tiple
day
s fro
m a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m; o
r, lo
catio
n of
wet
land
span
ning
bas
in d
ivid
e w
hich
mai
ntai
ns si
gnifi
cant
pon
ds th
at a
re li
kely
to b
ecom
e in
ter c
onne
cted
and
con
nect
with
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f th
e ba
sin d
ivid
e fr
om a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Inte
rmitt
ent s
trea
m o
r mar
sh fo
rmin
g a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n be
twee
n st
ream
s on
eith
er si
de o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e fr
om la
rger
than
a 1
.0%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - E
urop
ean
stre
am v
alva
ta (V
alva
ta p
isci
nalis
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
le
USA
CE L
RB-H
&H
Hyd
raul
ic E
ngin
eer
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
ODN
R - F
isher
ies B
iolo
gist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Team
Rat
ings
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Dur
ing
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
site
fiel
d vi
sit o
n M
ay 2
5 an
d 26
, 201
1 th
ere
was
a st
orm
that
pro
duce
d 2.
73 in
ches
of r
ain
over
a 2
4 ho
ur
perio
d. A
s a re
sult
of th
is st
orm
, roa
ds in
the
area
of c
once
rn w
ere
flood
ed a
nd th
ere
was
a v
isibl
e w
ater
way
con
nect
ion
betw
een
the
divi
de fr
om th
e Gr
eat L
akes
Bas
in a
nd th
e M
ississ
ippi
Riv
er B
asin
. It
is es
timat
ed th
at th
e st
orm
was
less
than
a 5
yea
r sto
rm e
vent
.
2. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S oc
curr
ing
with
in e
ither
bas
in
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
RCHi
ghM
CHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRH
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
ist
Team
Rat
ing
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - E
urop
ean
stre
am v
alva
ta (V
alva
ta p
isci
nalis
)
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Th
e Eu
rope
an st
ream
val
vata
was
orig
inal
ly in
trod
uced
to L
ake
Ont
ario
at t
he m
outh
of t
he G
enes
ee R
iver
in 1
897.
In
fort
y ye
ars i
t di
sper
sed
to L
ake
Erie
and
subs
eque
ntly
it e
xpan
ded
its ra
nge
to th
e St
. Law
renc
e Ri
ver,
the
Huds
on R
iver
, Lak
e Ch
ampl
ain
and
Cayu
ga L
ake.
The
va
lvat
a w
as re
cord
ed in
the
1990
s and
the
first
dec
ade
of th
e 21
st c
entu
ry in
Sup
erio
r Bay
in L
ake
Supe
rior (
Min
neso
ta),
Lake
Mic
higa
n (W
iscon
sin)
and
One
ida
Lake
in th
e La
ke O
ntar
io w
ater
shed
(N
ew Y
ork)
. It
is fo
und
in fr
eshw
ater
lake
s and
stre
ams.
In
its n
ativ
e ra
nge
of E
urop
e, w
este
rn
Sibe
ria, a
nd c
entr
al A
sia, t
his s
peci
es h
as b
een
foun
d to
tole
rate
a w
ide
rang
e of
hab
itats
incl
udin
g ol
igot
roph
ic n
ears
hore
zone
s, sp
arse
ly v
eget
ated
la
kes o
r site
s dom
inat
ed b
y Ch
ara
spp.
and
Pot
amog
eton
spp.
, litt
oral
hab
itats
with
hig
h sil
tatio
n ra
tes,
lent
ic a
nd st
agna
nt w
ater
s or s
low
stre
ams
Th
e va
lvat
a is
foun
d in
hab
itats
with
fine
subs
trat
es (m
ud, s
ilt a
nd sa
nd) –
esp
ecia
lly d
urin
g hi
bern
atio
n, a
nd a
quat
ic m
acro
phyt
es –
for l
ayin
g its
egg
m
asse
s.
2. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
occu
ring
with
in e
ither
bas
in?
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s in
clos
e en
ough
pro
xim
ity to
be
capa
ble
of m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
with
in 2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s, bu
t bas
ed o
n cu
rren
t pro
xim
ity a
nd m
obili
ty, i
s con
sider
ed in
capa
ble
of
mov
ing
to th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
with
in 2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
is no
t kno
wn
to e
xist
on
a co
nnec
ted
wat
erw
ay.
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3 Fi
sh M
gt. S
up.
3. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
3A R
atin
g Ce
rtai
nty
3B R
atin
gCe
rtai
nty
Low
MC
Low
RCLo
w
MC
Low
RCLo
wM
CLo
wRC
Low
MC
Low
RCLo
w
RCLo
wRC
Low
MC
Low
RC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - E
urop
ean
stre
am v
alva
ta (V
alva
ta p
isci
nalis
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRH
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
ist
Team
Rat
ings
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: 3A
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh C
onne
ctin
g St
ream
s.
3A.
How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit to
aqu
atic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
conn
ectin
g st
ream
s?3B
. How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit to
aqu
atic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
othe
r mea
ns?
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed in
rela
tivel
y cl
ose
prox
imity
to lo
catio
n an
d ha
ve a
mpl
e op
port
unity
, cap
abili
ty a
nd
mot
ivat
ion
to su
cces
sful
ly n
avig
ate
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
nd/o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect
path
way
with
in 1
0-20
yea
rs.
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed a
t loc
atio
ns in
clo
se e
noug
h pr
oxim
ity to
loca
tion
and
have
lim
ited
capa
bilit
y to
surv
ive
pass
age
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
20-
50 y
ears
.
Targ
et A
NS
are
not i
n pr
oxim
ity to
the
path
way
, and
/or i
t is h
ighl
y un
likel
y th
at th
ey c
ould
surv
ive
tran
sit fr
om c
urre
nt
loca
tions
by
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
nex
t 50
year
s.
The
Euro
pean
stre
am v
alva
ta h
as b
een
foun
d in
the
Gre
at L
akes
and
can
tole
rate
a w
ide
rang
e of
hab
itats
incl
udin
g la
kes,
pon
ds, r
iver
s, sm
all
stre
ams,
can
als,
and
ditc
hes.
Its
clo
se p
roxi
mity
in th
e G
reat
Lak
es a
nd p
artic
ular
ly L
ake
Erie
, ind
icat
e a
pote
ntia
l for
acc
ess a
nd tr
ansf
er to
the
Miss
issip
pi R
iver
Bas
in v
ia th
e Li
ttle
Kill
buck
Cre
ek a
quat
ic p
athw
ay. O
bsta
cles
to u
pstr
eam
mig
ratio
n w
ithin
the
Blac
k Ri
ver i
nclu
de:
- D
am (E
lyria
– C
hest
nut R
idge
Rd)
- D
am O
H019
54 (E
lyria
– E
. Brid
ge S
t.)
- Wat
erfa
lls (E
lyria
– W
ashi
ngto
n St
) - W
ater
falls
(Ely
ria –
Cas
cade
/Ely
woo
d Pk
) - D
am (E
lyria
– S
prin
g Va
lley
Gol
f Clu
b)
T
hese
sh
ould
be
suffi
cien
t in
impe
ding
mig
ratio
n of
the
Euro
pean
stre
am v
alva
ta a
t nor
mal
and
low
flow
s. E
ven
thou
gh th
ese
obst
acle
s bec
ome
inun
date
d du
ring
high
flow
eve
nts,
the
limite
d ab
ility
of t
his s
peci
es to
mov
e up
stre
am u
naid
ed re
sults
in a
low
pro
babi
lity
that
this
spec
ies w
ill b
e ab
le to
mak
e it
from
its c
urre
nt lo
catio
n to
the
path
way
una
ided
. Th
is is
rein
forc
ed b
y th
e fa
ct th
at th
e di
sper
sal o
f the
val
vata
in th
e G
reat
Lak
es h
as b
een
rest
ricte
d an
d ch
arac
teriz
ed b
y a
slow
rate
of s
prea
d du
ring
the
first
100
yea
rs o
f its
col
oniza
tion.
It i
s lik
ely
that
suffi
cient
hab
itat i
s ava
ilabl
e th
roug
hout
the
Blac
k Ri
ver a
nd it
's tr
ibut
arie
s for
the
Euro
pean
stre
am v
alva
ta, h
owev
er, t
hese
obs
tacl
es st
ill m
ake
it hi
ghly
unl
ikel
y th
at th
e Eu
rope
an st
ream
val
vata
will
be
able
to m
ake
it to
the
path
way
una
ided
.
Rem
arks
: 3B
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh O
ther
Mea
nsSh
ippi
ng a
nd th
e us
e of
mar
sh g
rass
es in
pac
king
ena
bled
the
Euro
pean
fing
erna
il cl
am in
the
past
to b
e in
trod
uced
to th
e G
reat
Lak
es.
Subs
eque
nt
rang
e ex
pans
ion
may
hav
e oc
curr
ed v
ia n
atur
al d
isper
sal,
whi
le m
ore
rece
nt re
cord
s of t
he 1
990s
and
the
first
dec
ade
of th
e 21
st c
entu
ry m
ay h
ave
been
aid
ed b
y hu
man
-med
iate
d di
sper
sal i
n sh
ips a
nd v
ia c
anal
s. T
he tr
ibut
arie
s of t
he B
lack
Riv
er a
re to
o sm
all f
or c
omm
erci
al b
oats
. Th
us th
e m
ost l
ikel
y fo
rm o
f tra
nspo
rt to
day
wou
ld b
e by
recr
eatio
nal b
oats
and
trai
lers
. Th
e va
lvat
a ha
s bee
n sh
own
to b
e to
lera
nt o
f des
sicat
ion,
how
ever
, sin
ce fi
shin
g an
d bo
atin
g ar
e re
lativ
ely
unco
mm
on in
the
vici
nity
of t
he C
lear
Cre
ek, i
t is h
ighl
y un
likel
y th
at th
e sp
ecie
s will
arr
ive
at th
e di
vide
by
anth
ropo
geni
c or
oth
er m
eans
.
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3 Fi
sh M
gt. S
up.
4. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S es
tabl
ishi
ng in
pro
xim
ity to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
MC
High
MC
High
MC
High
MC
High
RCHi
ghM
C
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RH -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Team
Rat
ings
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - E
urop
ean
stre
am v
alva
ta (V
alva
ta p
isci
nalis
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: The
val
vata
is to
lera
nt o
f a w
ide
rang
e of
con
ditio
ns in
bot
h lo
tic a
nd le
ntic
hab
itats
and
has
bee
n sh
own
to b
e re
lativ
ely
inse
nsiti
ve to
or
gani
c po
llutio
n. It
has
bee
n fo
und
at sa
mpl
ing
sites
with
tem
pera
ture
s ran
ging
from
11-
33 o
C an
d in
wat
ers w
ith m
ean
tem
pera
ture
rang
ing
from
5.
5-16
.5 o
C. D
ensit
ies o
f thi
s spe
cies
hav
e be
en d
ocum
ente
d as
incr
easin
g du
ring
a he
at w
ave
whe
n w
ater
tem
pera
ture
s rea
ched
29.
5 oC
and
ex
ceed
ed 2
5oC
for 7
5 da
ys.
The
Euro
pean
stre
am v
alva
ta is
a g
ener
alist
, gra
zing
on e
piph
ytic
alg
ae a
nd d
etrit
us, a
nd in
mor
e eu
trop
hic
envi
ronm
ents
is c
apab
le o
f filt
er fe
edin
g on
susp
ende
d or
gani
c m
atte
r and
alg
ae.
It ca
n al
so ra
sp o
ff pi
eces
of a
quat
ic v
eget
atio
n. S
urvi
val o
f a
viab
le, r
epro
duci
ng p
opul
atio
n of
the
valv
ata
with
in th
e ag
ricul
tura
l ditc
h ne
twor
k is
poss
ible
giv
en it
s tol
eran
ce to
a w
ide
rang
e of
hab
itat
cond
ition
s. I
n ad
ditio
n, C
lear
Cre
ek m
ay p
rovi
de su
ffici
ent h
abita
t for
occ
upat
ion
of th
is sp
ecie
s in
clos
e pr
oxim
ity.
4. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
esta
blis
hing
in p
roxi
mity
to th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
plen
tiful
in c
lose
pro
xim
ity to
supp
ort a
ll lif
e st
ages
from
birt
h to
ad
ult,
abio
tic c
ondi
tions
alig
n w
ith n
ativ
e ra
nge
and
ther
e ar
e no
kno
wn
pred
ator
s or c
ondi
tions
that
wou
ld si
gnifi
cant
ly
impe
de su
rviv
abili
ty o
r rep
rodu
ctio
n.
Lim
ited
and
disc
onne
cted
are
as a
nd so
urce
s of f
ood
and
habi
tat s
uita
ble
to th
e AN
S ar
e av
aila
ble
in p
roxi
mity
, abi
otic
co
nditi
ons a
re w
ithin
latit
ude
limits
of n
ativ
e ra
nge,
but
onl
y a
port
ion
of th
e he
alth
y in
divi
dual
s arr
ivin
g at
loca
tion
can
be e
xpec
ted
to e
ffect
ivel
y co
mpe
te a
nd su
rviv
e.
Low
Habi
tat a
nd a
biot
ic c
ondi
tions
in p
roxi
mity
are
out
side
the
rang
e w
here
AN
S ha
s bee
n kn
own
to su
rviv
e; th
ere
is ve
ry
limite
d av
aila
bilit
y ha
bita
t are
a su
itabl
e fo
r AN
S co
ver,
sust
aina
ble
food
supp
ly a
nd re
prod
uctio
n; o
r nat
ive
pred
ator
s or
com
petit
ion
with
nat
ive
spec
ies w
ould
like
ly p
reve
nt e
stab
lishm
ent o
f a su
stai
nabl
e po
pula
tion.
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3 Fi
sh M
gt. S
up.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
5. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S sp
read
ing
acro
ss a
quat
ic p
athw
ay in
to th
e ne
w b
asin
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
High
RCHi
ghRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCRe
ason
ably
cer
tain
.M
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RURe
ason
ably
unc
erta
inVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: The
Eur
opea
n st
ream
val
vata
has
bee
n fo
und
in sm
alle
r riv
ers a
nd c
anal
s inc
ludi
ng d
itche
s and
dow
nstr
eam
mig
ratio
n th
roug
h th
e Li
ttle
Ki
llbuc
k Cr
eek
path
way
wou
ld b
e lik
ely.
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e, D
3 Fi
sh M
gt. S
up.
5. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
spre
adin
g ac
ross
aqu
atic
pat
hway
into
the
new
bas
in?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
avai
labl
e, a
nd th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ca
pabi
litie
s to
signi
fican
tly e
xpan
d ra
nge
from
loca
tions
whe
re in
itial
ly in
trod
uced
.
Ther
e ar
e lim
ited
sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d su
itabl
e ha
bita
t, an
d/or
the
spec
ies h
as d
emon
stra
ted
limite
d ab
ility
to sp
read
sig
nific
ant d
istan
ces b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
Ther
e ar
e se
vere
ly li
mite
d so
urce
s of f
ood
and
suita
ble
habi
tat,
and/
or th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ve
ry li
mite
d ab
ility
to
spre
ad b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - E
urop
ean
stre
am v
alva
ta (V
alva
ta p
isci
nalis
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRH
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
ist
Team
Rat
ings
1. P
roba
bilit
y of
aqu
atic
pat
hway
exi
sten
ce
Ratin
g Fl
ow
into
GLB
Cert
aint
y Ra
ting
Flow
in
to M
RBCe
rtai
nty
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mRC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Med
ium
VCM
ediu
mVC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RC
Mod
erat
ely
Cert
ain
MC
Reas
onab
ly U
ncer
tain
RU
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
Very
Unc
erta
in
VU
1. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e lik
elih
ood
of th
e ex
iste
nce
of a
via
ble
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
t the
subj
ect l
ocat
ion?
Ass
ume
a vi
able
aqu
atic
pat
hway
is a
ny
loca
tion
whe
re u
ntre
ated
surf
ace
wat
er fl
ow a
cros
s the
div
ide
is d
eem
ed li
kely
to o
ccur
and
conn
ect h
eadw
ater
stre
ams i
n bo
th b
asin
s fro
m a
ny
stor
m u
p to
the
1% a
nnua
l ret
urn
freq
uenc
y st
orm
.
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Pere
nnia
l str
eam
s and
wet
land
s or i
nter
mitt
ent s
trea
m k
now
n/do
cum
ente
d to
con
vey
signi
fican
t vol
umes
of w
ater
ac
ross
the
basin
div
ide
for d
ays t
o w
eeks
mul
tiple
tim
es p
er y
ear.
In
term
itten
t str
eam
cap
able
of m
aint
aini
ng a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n to
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e co
ntin
uous
ly fo
r mul
tiple
day
s fro
m a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m; o
r, lo
catio
n of
wet
land
span
ning
bas
in d
ivid
e w
hich
mai
ntai
ns si
gnifi
cant
pon
ds th
at a
re li
kely
to b
ecom
e in
ter c
onne
cted
and
con
nect
with
stre
ams o
n bo
th si
des o
f th
e ba
sin d
ivid
e fr
om a
10%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Inte
rmitt
ent s
trea
m o
r mar
sh fo
rmin
g a
surf
ace
wat
er c
onne
ctio
n be
twee
n st
ream
s on
eith
er si
de o
f the
bas
in d
ivid
e fr
om la
rger
than
a 1
.0%
ann
ual r
etur
n fr
eque
ncy
stor
m.
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - S
kipj
ack
herr
ing
(Alo
sa ch
ryso
chlo
ris)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtise
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RB-H
&H
Hyd
raul
ic E
ngin
eer
USA
CE L
RH -
Wild
life
Biol
ogist
ODN
R - F
isher
ies B
iolo
gist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Team
Rat
ings
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Dur
ing
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
site
fiel
d vi
sit o
n M
ay 2
5 an
d 26
, 201
1 th
ere
was
a st
orm
that
pro
duce
d 2.
73 in
ches
of r
ain
over
a 2
4 ho
ur
perio
d. A
s a re
sult
of th
is st
orm
, roa
ds in
the
area
of c
once
rn w
ere
flood
ed a
nd th
ere
was
a v
isibl
e w
ater
way
con
nect
ion
betw
een
the
divi
de fr
om th
e Gr
eat L
akes
Bas
in a
nd th
e M
ississ
ippi
Riv
er B
asin
. It
is es
timat
ed th
at th
e st
orm
was
less
than
a 5
yea
r sto
rm e
vent
.
2. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S oc
curr
ing
with
in e
ither
bas
inRa
ting
Cert
aint
y
High
VCHi
ghVC
High
VCHi
ghVC
High
VC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
leU
SACE
LRB
- Bi
olog
istDi
v. o
f Wild
life-
Dist
rict 3
Fish
Mgt
. Sup
.U
SACE
LRH
- Bi
olog
istU
SACE
LRB
- So
il Sc
ient
istTe
am R
atin
g
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - S
kipj
ack
herr
ing
(Alo
sa ch
ryso
chlo
ris)
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: Th
e no
rthe
rn sn
akeh
ead
was
foun
d in
200
8 in
Mon
roe,
Ark
ansa
s (>
250
mile
s fro
m th
e Li
ttle
Kill
buck
site
), an
d ha
s sin
ce e
stab
lishe
d a
repr
oduc
ing
popu
latio
n in
the
area
. Alth
ough
in a
diff
eren
t bas
in, t
his s
peci
es is
also
est
ablis
hed
in th
e Po
tom
ac R
iver
in M
aryl
and
and
Virg
inia
.
2. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
occu
ring
with
in e
ither
bas
in?
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
g Ca
tego
ry C
riter
ia
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s in
clos
e en
ough
pro
xim
ity to
be
capa
ble
of m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
with
in 2
0 ye
ars.
Targ
et A
NS
exist
s on
conn
ecte
d w
ater
way
s, b
ut b
ased
on
curr
ent p
roxi
mity
and
mob
ility
, is c
onsid
ered
inca
pabl
e of
m
ovin
g to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay w
ithin
20
year
s.
Targ
et A
NS
is no
t kno
wn
to e
xist
on
a co
nnec
ted
wat
erw
ay.
3. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
3A R
atin
g Ce
rtai
nty
3B R
atin
gCe
rtai
nty
Low
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Low
MC
Low
RCLo
wM
CLo
wRC
Low
MC
Low
RC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - S
kipj
ack
herr
ing
(Alo
sa c
hrys
ochl
oris
)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Posi
tion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Div.
of W
ildlif
e-Di
stric
t 3 F
ish M
gt. S
up.
USA
CE L
RH -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
Team
Rat
ings
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: 3A
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh C
onne
ctin
g St
ream
s.
3A.
How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
conn
ectin
g st
ream
s?3B
. How
do
you
rate
the
prob
abili
ty o
f AN
S su
rviv
ing
tran
sit t
o aq
uatic
pat
hway
thro
ugh
othe
r mea
ns?
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed in
rela
tivel
y cl
ose
prox
imity
to lo
catio
n an
d ha
ve a
mpl
e op
port
unity
, cap
abili
ty a
nd
mot
ivat
ion
to su
cces
sful
ly n
avig
ate
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay a
nd/o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect
path
way
with
in 1
0-20
yea
rs.
Targ
et A
NS
are
esta
blish
ed a
t loc
atio
ns in
clo
se e
noug
h pr
oxim
ity to
loca
tion
and
have
lim
ited
capa
bilit
y to
surv
ive
pass
age
thro
ugh
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r thr
ough
oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
the
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
20-
50 y
ears
.
Targ
et A
NS
are
not i
n pr
oxim
ity to
the
path
way
, and
/or i
t is h
ighl
y un
likel
y th
at th
ey c
ould
surv
ive
tran
sit fr
om c
urre
nt
loca
tions
by
aqua
tic p
athw
ay o
r oth
er m
eans
to a
rriv
e at
subj
ect p
athw
ay w
ithin
nex
t 50
year
s.
Skip
jack
her
ring
are
a m
igra
tory
spec
ies f
ound
in la
rger
rive
rs o
ften
in a
reas
of s
wift
cur
rent
. In
Ohi
o th
is sp
ecie
s is o
nly
foun
d in
the
Ohi
o Ri
ver a
nd
its la
rger
trib
utar
ies,
par
ticul
arly
the
Scio
to R
iver
and
Mus
kigu
m R
iver
. Sk
ipja
ck h
errin
g ar
e st
rong
ly m
igra
tory
with
in ri
vers
and
pre
fer f
ast f
low
ing
wat
er w
here
they
are
reno
wne
d fo
r lea
ping
. Th
ey a
re fo
und
in c
lear
to m
oder
atel
y tu
rbid
wat
ers i
n la
rge
river
s and
rese
rvoi
rs u
sual
ly w
ithin
the
curr
ent o
ver s
and
or g
rave
l. S
kipj
ack
herr
ing
feed
in la
rge
scho
ols w
ith a
dults
feed
ing
on o
ther
her
ring
spec
ies s
uch
as th
e th
read
fin sh
ad, t
he g
izzar
d sh
ad a
nd y
oung
of t
he y
ear h
errin
g sp
ecie
s, w
hile
the
juve
nile
s fee
d on
dip
tera
ns a
nd o
ther
aqu
atic
inse
cts.
Bec
ause
skip
jack
her
ring
tend
to p
refe
r la
rge
fast
flow
ing
river
s, is
unl
ikel
y th
at th
ey w
ould
mig
rate
ups
trea
m o
f the
ir cu
rren
t ran
ge in
the
mai
nste
m M
uski
ngum
Riv
er in
to th
e sm
alle
r, m
ore
turb
id, t
ribut
arie
s lea
ding
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck p
athw
ay.
Desp
ite th
e co
nnec
tivity
of t
he W
alho
ndin
g Ri
ver (
and
Killb
uck
Cree
k) to
its n
ativ
e ra
nge,
the
skip
jack
her
ring
has n
ever
bee
n re
cord
ed in
that
dra
inag
e. T
his i
s lik
ely
due
to th
e af
finity
of t
he fi
sh to
larg
e riv
er h
abita
t. T
he W
alho
ndin
g lik
ely
does
not
con
tain
suita
ble
habi
tat t
o al
low
for a
succ
essf
ully
bre
edin
g po
pula
tion.
Rem
arks
: 3B
. Pro
babi
lity
of A
NS
Surv
ivin
g Tr
ansit
to A
quat
ic P
athw
ay T
hrou
gh O
ther
Mea
nsSi
nce
the
Litt
le K
illbu
ck si
te is
an
activ
e fa
rm c
onsis
ting
of c
onne
cted
dra
inag
e di
tche
s, it
is n
ot li
kely
that
fish
ing
or b
oatin
g w
ould
occ
ur a
t or
rela
tivel
y ne
ar th
is lo
catio
n. A
cces
s by
the
gene
ral p
ublic
is li
mite
d to
veh
icul
ar tr
affic
thro
ugh
and
arou
nd th
e sit
e. C
onsid
erin
g th
ese
limita
tions
it is
hi
ghly
unl
ikel
y th
at th
e sk
ipja
ck h
errin
g w
ill a
rriv
e at
the
divi
de b
y an
thro
poge
nic
mea
ns, s
uch
as li
vew
ell o
r aqu
ariu
m re
leas
es.
4. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S es
tabl
ishi
ng in
pro
xim
ity to
the
aqua
tic p
athw
ay
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
Low
MC
Low
RCLo
wRC
Low
MC
Low
MC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCM
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RUVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Div.
of W
ildlif
e-Di
stric
t 3 F
ish M
gt. S
up.
USA
CE L
RH -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
Team
Rat
ings
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - S
kipj
ack
herr
ing
(Alo
sa ch
ryso
chlo
ris)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtis
e
Po
sitio
n tit
le o
r tea
m ro
le
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.
Reas
onab
ly c
erta
in.
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
Reas
onab
ly u
ncer
tain
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: As
a v
isual
pre
dato
r, th
e tu
rbid
wat
ers o
f the
agr
icul
tura
l ditc
hes m
ay b
e un
suita
ble
for t
he sk
ipja
ck h
errin
g. S
urvi
val o
f a v
iabl
e,
repr
oduc
ing
popu
latio
n of
skip
jack
her
ring
with
in th
e ag
ricul
tura
l ditc
h ne
twor
k m
ay b
e un
likel
y du
e lo
w w
ater
qua
lity
and
high
tem
pera
ture
s in
sum
mer
mon
ths.
4. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
esta
blis
hing
in p
roxi
mity
to th
e aq
uatic
pat
hway
?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
plen
tiful
in c
lose
pro
xim
ity to
supp
ort a
ll lif
e st
ages
from
birt
h to
ad
ult,
abio
tic c
ondi
tions
alig
n w
ith n
ativ
e ra
nge
and
ther
e ar
e no
kno
wn
pred
ator
s or c
ondi
tions
that
wou
ld si
gnifi
cant
ly
impe
de su
rviv
abili
ty o
r rep
rodu
ctio
n.
Lim
ited
and
disc
onne
cted
are
as a
nd so
urce
s of f
ood
and
habi
tat s
uita
ble
to th
e AN
S ar
e av
aila
ble
in p
roxi
mity
, abi
otic
co
nditi
ons a
re w
ithin
latit
ude
limits
of n
ativ
e ra
nge,
but
onl
y a
port
ion
of th
e he
alth
y in
divi
dual
s arr
ivin
g at
loca
tion
can
be e
xpec
ted
to e
ffect
ivel
y co
mpe
te a
nd su
rviv
e.
Low
Habi
tat a
nd a
biot
ic c
ondi
tions
in p
roxi
mity
are
out
side
the
rang
e w
here
AN
S ha
s bee
n kn
own
to su
rviv
e; th
ere
is ve
ry
limite
d av
aila
bilit
y ha
bita
t are
a su
itabl
e fo
r AN
S co
ver,
sust
aina
ble
food
supp
ly a
nd re
prod
uctio
n; o
r nat
ive
pred
ator
s or
com
petit
ion
with
nat
ive
spec
ies w
ould
like
ly p
reve
nt e
stab
lishm
ent o
f a su
stai
nabl
e po
pula
tion.
5. P
roba
bilit
y of
AN
S sp
read
ing
acro
ss a
quat
ic p
athw
ay in
to th
e ne
w b
asin
Ratin
g Ce
rtai
nty
Med
ium
RCLo
wRC
Med
ium
RCM
ediu
mM
CM
ediu
mRC
Qua
litat
ive
Ratin
gQ
ualit
ativ
e Ra
ting
Cate
gory
Crit
eria
High
Med
ium
Low
Sym
bol
Very
Cer
tain
VC
Reas
onab
ly C
erta
in
RCRe
ason
ably
cer
tain
.M
oder
atel
y Ce
rtai
n M
CRe
ason
ably
Unc
erta
in
RURe
ason
ably
unc
erta
inVe
ry U
ncer
tain
VU
Litt
le K
illbu
ck C
reek
, Med
ina
Coun
ty, O
H - S
kipj
ack
herr
ing
(Alo
sa ch
ryso
chlo
ris)
Aqua
tic P
athw
ay T
eam
Expe
rtise
Posit
ion
title
or t
eam
role
USA
CE L
RB -
Biol
ogist
Divi
sion
of W
ildlif
e-Di
stric
t 3 F
ish M
gt. S
up.
USA
CE L
RH -
Biol
ogist
USA
CE L
RB -
Soil
Scie
ntist
Team
Rat
ings
Mor
e ce
rtai
n th
an n
ot.
A gu
ess
Rem
arks
: The
hab
itat a
t the
pat
hway
con
sists
of a
serie
s of c
onne
cted
spar
sely
veg
etat
ed a
gric
ultu
ral d
rain
age
ditc
hes w
hich
cre
ate
a pa
thw
ay fr
om
one
basin
to a
noth
er.
It is
poss
ible
that
the
skip
jack
her
ring
coul
d su
rviv
e in
this
syst
em lo
ng e
noug
h to
tran
sfer
acr
oss t
he b
asin
und
er th
e pr
oper
co
nditi
ons.
Dur
ing
stor
m e
vent
s wat
er is
pum
ped
from
thes
e ag
ricul
tura
l ditc
hes i
nto
both
bas
ins.
A st
orm
eve
nt a
s min
imal
as a
5%
ann
ual r
etur
n st
orm
resu
lts in
sign
ifica
nt p
ortio
ns o
f thi
s site
bei
ng in
unda
ted
and
FEM
A m
aps d
ispla
y th
e en
tire
site
inun
date
d fr
om a
100
% a
nnua
l ret
urn
stor
m
even
t. C
onsid
erin
g th
ese
fact
ors,
it w
ould
be
poss
ible
for t
he sk
ipja
ck h
errin
g to
tran
sfer
acr
oss b
asin
s via
the
agric
ultu
ral d
rain
age
ditc
hes i
f the
fr
eque
ncy
betw
een
signi
fican
t sto
rm e
vent
s was
with
in a
tim
efra
me
that
wou
ld a
llow
thei
r sur
viva
l with
in th
is sy
stem
. In
addi
tion,
road
side
ditc
hes
alon
g Fr
anch
este
r Roa
d sp
an th
e di
vide
and
con
nect
bot
h ba
sins v
ia R
epp
Run
and
Clea
r Cre
ek.
The
resu
lts o
f the
stor
m e
vent
witn
esse
d du
ring
the
site
visit
des
crib
e th
is ar
ea a
s bei
ng in
unda
ted
and
wat
er fl
owin
g ac
ross
the
divi
de.
5. H
ow d
o yo
u ra
te th
e pr
obab
ility
of A
NS
spre
adin
g ac
ross
aqu
atic
pat
hway
into
the
new
bas
in?
Sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d ha
bita
t sui
tabl
e to
the
ANS
are
avai
labl
e, a
nd th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ca
pabi
litie
s to
signi
fican
tly e
xpan
d ra
nge
from
loca
tions
whe
re in
itial
ly in
trod
uced
.
Ther
e ar
e lim
ited
sour
ces o
f foo
d an
d su
itabl
e ha
bita
t, an
d/or
the
spec
ies h
as d
emon
stra
ted
limite
d ab
ility
to sp
read
sig
nific
ant d
istan
ces b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
Ther
e ar
e se
vere
ly li
mite
d so
urce
s of f
ood
and
suita
ble
habi
tat,
and/
or th
e sp
ecie
s has
dem
onst
rate
d ve
ry li
mite
d ab
ility
to
spre
ad b
eyon
d ar
eas w
here
it h
as b
een
intr
oduc
ed.
As c
erta
in a
s I a
m g
oing
to g
et.