lisa goddard u.s. clivar ssc chair international research institute for climate and society
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US CLIVAR Report. CLIVAR SSG-18 UNESCO, Paris May 3, 2011. Lisa Goddard U.S. CLIVAR SSC Chair International Research Institute for Climate and Society Columbia University [email protected] Mike Patterson Interim Director, US CLIVAR Project Office [email protected]. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Lisa GoddardU.S. CLIVAR SSC Chair
International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyColumbia University
Mike PattersonInterim Director, US CLIVAR Project Office
US CLIVAR ReportCLIVAR SSG-18
UNESCO, ParisMay 3, 2011
US CLIVAR Goals
Identifying and understanding the major patterns of climate variability on seasonal, decadal and longer time scales and evaluating their predictability
Evaluating and improving the models used for prediction and projection to project climate change due to human activity, including anthropogenically induced changes in atmospheric composition
Expanding our capacity in short term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate prediction and searching for ways to provide information on decadal variability
Better documenting rapid climate changes and the mechanisms for these events, and evaluating the potential for abrupt climate changes in the future
Detecting and describing high impact climate variability and change
US CLIVAR Structure
SalinityMadden Julian OscillationWestern Boundary CurrentDroughtHigh Latitude Surface FluxesDecadal PredictabilityHurricaneGreenland Ice Sheet/Ocean Interactions
Working Groups
Intl. CLIVAR Panels
Intl. CLIVAR SSGIntl. CLIVAR Office
4
US CLIVAR Recent Achievements
• 4 new Climate Process Teams (CPTs) started in 2010 Ocean Boundary Mixing Sea Ice/Ocean Mixing Stratocumulus to Cumulus Transition Cloud Macrophysical Parameterization
• Climate Model Evaluation Projects awarded for CMIP5 analysis (26 funded)
• Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA) workshop November 2010; FY11 small grants program for analyzing reanalysis products
• Atlantic MOC activity has grown (40 projects); planning underway for AMOC observing elements in the northern subpolar and southern Atlantic
• DYNAMO (MJO initiation) & SPURS (ocean salinity) projects awarded and field campaigns moving forward
US Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
Objectives:•Design and implementation of an AMOC monitoring system•Assessment of AMOC’s role in the global climate•Assessment of AMOC variabiltiy mechanisms and predictability
US AMOC contributions in black; International contributions in red.
International collaborations: UK RAPID, EU, Germany THOR
Key Developments:•Increase in number of projects (40)
Observations, modeling, OSEs, assimilation, processes, etc
•N. Atlantic Sub-Polar Obs. Workshop, April 2010 (Durham Identified motivation and design of a N Atlantic
subpolar gyre obs system (OSNAP) from Labrador to Greenland
AMOC, THOR, plus carbon and biological communities
•SAMOC 3 Workshop, May 2010 (Rio) Planning of 35S cross-basin line
•Third AMOC Science Team workshop, June 2010 (Miami); Third Annual US AMOC Report published February 2010•Joint RAPID-AMOC Science meeting July 2011 (Bristol)
Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO)
Objectives: •Collect in situ observations from the equatorial Indian Ocean that are urgently needed to advance our understanding of the processes key to MJO initiation and to improve their representations in models;•Identify critical deficiencies in models that are responsible for the low prediction skill and poor simulations of MJO initiation, and assist the broad community effort of improving model parameterization; •Provide guiding information to enhance MJO monitoring and prediction capacities that deliver climate prediction and assessment products on intraseasonal timescales for risk management and decision making over the global tropics.
Field Campaigns: DYNAMO and CINDY2011 (September 2011 – January 2012)
Participating countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, ECMWF, India, Japan, UK, US
Key developments:•Indian Ocean Piracy Exclusion Zone Boundary -- extended from 65E to 78E engulfing the Maldives Chain at 73E and the western 2/3 of experimental array
Japanese report an additional $200K in insurance to operate the Mirai in the zone. DYNAMO SSC reexamining ports to use and examining alternate configurations and the potential impact on
science objectives if there is a need to move a few degrees eastward. Indians increasing their patrols of the Maldives; ONR monitoring and assessing from military perspective. Decision to operate vessels during the experiment will ultimately be up to the ship Captains.
•Fuel Costs – With the recent increases in fuel costs, the SSC is evaluating the impact on port calls and transit to station versus on-station conduct of science.•Japan earthquake/tsunami disaster could impact Japanese participation in the experiment.
US agencies remain committed to the experiment and will continue to monitor the evolution of the various issues as they unfold.
Salinity Processes in the Upper Ocean Regional Study (SPURS)
An upper-ocean freshwater field campaign in the salinity maximum region of the Subtropical North Atlantic planned for March 2012
Spatially nested structure in both the observational and model approaches:Large scale – entire subtropical regime and its relationship to the AMOCRegional scale ~1000 km, represents the salty subtropical convergence regimeSmall scale ~100 km (comparable to the Aquarius footprint) investigates the details of the sub-mesoscale physical processes affecting the surface layer and subduction of the S-max water
NASA support of glider array, modeling, data management, planning
3-4 cruises, 30 to 40-days each; possibility of Spanish, Irish and German ships
Adds 50 GPS stations around perimeter of the Caribbean basin; installation over the next three years
NSF Support through Tectonics Program ~$7M/5 years; Small Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences funding contribution
produces precipitable water vapor (PW) estimates at 30- minute time steps
provides continuous observations of surface temperature and pressure, relative humidity, horizontal winds, and precipitation
Potential US Contribution to IASCLIPContinuously Operating Caribbean GPS Observational Network
(COCONet)
US CLIVAR Strategic Directions/Planning
• US CLIVAR moving ahead on decadal variability, extremes, and climate of polar regions themes
Decadal Predictability Working Group Greenland Ice Sheet-Ocean Interactions Working Group Hurricane Working Group Research Colloquium on Extremes under Global Warming
• New theme on physical climate system interactions with carbon cycle, ocean biogeochemistry and marine ecosystems to be explored at July 2011 Summit in Woods Hole, MA
How do changes in the physical ocean circulation and heat content affect the magnitudes and distributions of ocean carbon sources and sinks on seasonal to centennial time scales?
What are the coupled physical/biogeochemical processes and feedbacks that contribute to determining the future state of heat and carbon sources and sinks and ecosystem structure?
What will be the future atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other carbon-containing greenhouse gases, and how will marine carbon sources and sinks change in response to anthropogenic forcing in the future?
• SSC to initiate science planning for post-2014 period during Summit
Decadal Predictability Working GroupChairs: Lisa Goddard (IRI/Columbia); Arun Kumar (NOAA/NCEP);
Amy Solomon (UCO)
Objectives:• Define a framework to distinguish natural decadal variability from
anthropogenically forced variability and to quantify their relative magnitude• Develop a framework for understanding decadal variability through metrics that
can be used as a strategy to assess and validate decadal climate predictions simulations
Published a February 2011 BAMS article describing existing methodologies to separate decadal natural variability from
anthropogenically forced variability, the degree to which those efforts have succeeded, and the ways in which the methods are limited or challenged by existing data.
Currently developing White Paper on for consistent metrics framework for evaluation of decadal simulations (as input to AR5 Chapter 11)
Greenland Ice Sheet/Ocean Interactions Working GroupChairs: Fiamma Straneo, WHOI; Olga Sergienko, Princeton Univ.;
Patrick Heimback, MIT
Objectives:• Foster and promote inter- action between the diverse oceanographic, glaciological, atmospheric, and climate (modeling and observational) communities interested in glacier/ocean interactions around Greenland• Advance understanding of processes and improve their representation in
climate models
The WG is drafting paper for submission to EOS or BAMS summarizing the state of knowledge and research on GIS/ocean interactions,
presenting various disciplinary perspectives, enumerating key science questions, and proposing options on how the community may proceed.
A limited participation workshop next Winter/Spring 2012.
To coordinate efforts to produce a set of model experimentsdesigned to improve understanding of the variability of tropicalcyclone formation in climate models
Scientific Objectives:• Improve understanding of interannual variability and trends in
tropical cyclone activity from the beginning of the 20th century to the present
• Quantify changes in the characteristics of tropical cyclones under a warming climate
The WG is coordinating a set of GCM experiments with a common set of forcings and provide the output for use by the research, prediction and applications communities.
Noting that the work would be useful in interpreting CMIP5 results, a near-term aim is to complete publication(s) for inclusion in the upcoming AR5.
US CLIVAR Hurricane Working GroupChairs: Gabriel Vecchi, GFDL; Suzana Camargo, LDEO;
Kevin Walsh, Univ. of Melbourne, Australia
NCAR Foothills Lab, Boulder, Colorado, USAJune 13-17, 2011
http://www.asp.ucar.edu/colloquium/2011/index.php
Participation of ~80 researchers, decision makers and students studying extreme events in observations and climate models; statistical modeling and identification of extremes; and use of climate extremes in a suite of decision and policy making contexts.
US CLIVAR/NCAR ASP Researcher ColloquiumStatistical Assessment of Extreme Weather Phenomena
under Climate Change
Objectives•Determine climate and weather extremes that are crucial in resources management and policy making•Identify the current state of the science of climate and weather extremes including uncertainties and information gaps in real-world applications•Obtain insights into the capabilities of climate models in identifying and modeling such extreme events.•Assess efficacy of statistical methods and tools to analyze and model extreme events under climate change•Develop interdisciplinary research directions in modeling and application of climate extremes
• Mapping of US CLIVAR goals to international CLIVAR goals and imperatives
• Cross-fertilization of scientists in planning efforts Participation of US scientists on international panels Participation of international scientists in US working groups and workshops
- Decadal Predictability (Hadley Centre, Canadian Climate Center)- Hurricanes (CMCC INGV/Italy, MPI/Germany, JAMSTEC/Japan, Hadley Centre/UK,
SNU/South Korea)
• Follow-on to US Working Group activities Drought Interest Group (DIG) DYNAMO
• US CLIVAR benefits from: Global observation and modeling Panels for data and tools Regional/basin Panels for multilateral coordination
Links to International CLIVAR
Thank You