Lisa B. BeeverGreater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration Conference

July 15, 2010

Climate Ready Estuaries –Partnership with 15 NEPs and EPA

Barnegat Bay NEP

www.epa.gov/cre

Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan

SG-Q: Build capacity for communities and their local leadership to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change through joint efforts.

Projects in support of SG-Q• Regional Vulnerability Assessment (2007-2009)• Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan (CRE 2008-2009)• Vulnerability Assessment Lite (2009-2010)• CC Environmental Indicators (CRE 2009-2010)• Model Ordinances/Comp Plan (CRE 2009-2010)• Punta Gorda Comp Plan amend (2009-2010)• Salt Marsh Adaptation (2009-2012)• Seagrass response to SLR (2009)• Lee County Resiliency Plan (2009-2010)• Conceptual Ecological Models (CRE 2010-2011)• Bonita Springs Adaptation Plan (Battelle pilot)

Existing Env. Indicators

• EPA Required• 54 named• 12 priority• Currently filling

gaps for 12.• No SG indicators.

Pollutant Loads

General Process

• Inventory potential indicators (vulnerabilities)• Survey scientists and interested people• Select top indicators for further study• Identify monitoring data sources, etc.• Survey scientists and interested people• Select top indicators• Prepare one-page sheets to amend report• Adopt through committee

172 Individual Candidate Indicators

20Respondents

Respondents

• 13 Scientists (USGS, FDEP, FWC, WMD, Co, Mote, etc)

• 4 Citizens (Engineer, WMD outreach, Coast Guard, etc)

• 1 Resource Manager (CHEC)

• 1 City Councilman (Punta Gorda)

• 6 Pretest

Top Contenders• Timing of seasonal activities (migration, hatching, production) • Loss of Conservation Acreage due to sea level rise • Ecologic changes at the coastline• Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of coastal strand• Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of mangroves• Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of mud flats/sand bars• Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of salt marshes• Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of seagrass• Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of wetlands from

retreating shorelines/conversion to open water• Coastal erosion rates• Drought intensity• Flooding at coastlines• Changes to precipitation trend/patterns, including extreme precipitation • Relative sea-level rise• Water temperature

15+3 Individual Candidate Indicators

7 (2 common)Respondents

Draft Climate Change Indicators

• Changes to precipitation trend/patterns, including extreme precipitation

• Sea-level rise• Water temperature• Phenology • Coastal erosion rates • (Habitat migration)

Changes to precipitation trend/patterns, including

extreme precipitationTargets: • Rolling 5-year average of 54 inches of

rainfall per year (including the Bartow, Arcadia and Fort Myers stations).

• Annual number of events exceeding the 95th percentile (0.42 inches) on a monthly and annual basis.

• Palmer Drought Index (PDI) >-2 and <2

1997

1958

Relative Sea Level Rise

Targets: • Limit relative sea-level rise to 1 inch per

decade (plus or minus ½ inch).

Water Temperature

Targets: • Gaps for targets.• Sources of data include :

– National Data Buoy Center Station VENF1 –Venice sea temperatures between 53 and 91o F.

– Volunteer data beginning 1998.

Time of day can give misleading results.

Phenology• Citrus phenology longest period of record.• Citrus flowers about a week after live oak.• Regression analysis suggests that floral

organ differentiation (requiring >650 accumulated hours below 19o C) has shifted later by one day for every 3 years.

• Valiente, J. I., and L.G. Albrigo. 2002. Modeling flowering date of sweet orange trees in central Florida based on historical weather. Proc. Intl. Soc. Citriculture, pages 296-299.

Citrus Phenology-Lake Alfred

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First Differentation

Bartow Temperatures

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Avg Min Temp Citrus POR

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Average of Min Temps

Range Expansions?

Longnose Killifish (Fundulus similis)Audubon Guide to Fishes 2002Northern extent, Marco IslandFound at Sanibel Causeway 2010

Florida White, male (Appias drusilla)Butterflies thru binocs, Glassberg et al 2000Northern extent, Monroe CountyFound at Estero Bay 2010

Coastal Erosion Rates

Targets: • The average historical rate of erosion in

west Florida is -0.8 ± 0.9 m/yr.

Confounded by beach renourishment and other anthropogenic activities.

(Habitat Migration)

Targets: • Not selected through survey but salt

marsh analysis may reveal useful indicator.

1953

2009

Landward Migration of seagrass in Charlotte Harbor East/West

Long Island Sound

• Initiating first survey to reduce number of indicators from ~32.

• HABs• DO• Groundwater Salinity• Pathogens/Human• Pathogens/Shellfish• Hydrogen Ions in sea• TSS• Invasive Species• Benthic Index• Phytoplankton• Zooplankton • Benthic Algae• Lobster

• Crustaceans/Shell• Shellfish (3 types)• Finfish• Marine Mammals/Turtles• Tidal Flat Inundation/Diver’y• Salt Marsh Diversity• Brackish/FW marsh sp shift• Coastal Veg changes• Cliff/Bluff Erosion• Bird species declines• Insect abundance• Light/eelgrass• SAV Species

Director: Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICPDeputy Director: Liz Donley , esq.

Communications Manager: Maran HilgendorfProgram Scientist: Judy Ott, MS

1926 Victoria Ave, Fort Myers FL 33901-3414239/338-2556, Toll free 866/835-5785

Fax 239/338-2560, chnep@swfrpc.org www.CHNEP.org