LINKING EUROPEAN, NATIONAL & CITY SCALES

UK National Focal Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling

Helen ApSimon and Tim Oxley, Imperial College in collaboration with CEH, NETCEN and ENTEC

Since Gothenburg/NECD many improvements:

e.g.: EMEP model-> 50x50 km Eulerian ->

country-to- grid source receptor matrices

NB ceilings do not dictate how or where countries change emissions- ASAM/RAINS assume uniform scaling in each

Ecosystem dependent deposition + finer grid ->

estimated exceedence of CLs increased

Linking of European to global scale/climate questions

Large reductions SOx and NOx -> greater relative importance of NH3

Now include particles- both primary and secondary

NB both NHx deposition and PM concentrations are due to a mixture of local and transboundary sources

targeted action within a country -> greater improvements than uniform scaling

for “binding squares” local action in the home country may reduce effort required by other countries

capability for more detailed study of sub-areas/countries

??? additional measures at local scale

European scale: ASAM

National scale: UKIAM Urban scale/air quality: USIAM (individual streets)

Common Framework:

List of sources+ cost-curves

List of receptors e.g. ecosystems, people, crops

+ source-> receptor matrices

Criteria for protection each receptor; e.g. AQ limit values, Critical loads

Scenario analysis or optimisation- stepwise approach converging to targets.

Imported from Europe

EMEP S-R matrices + ASAM tool

EMBEDDING SUB-GRID

UK sources

S-R matrices from FRAME and PPM

Shipping

EMEP model + ASAM tool

Hot-spots /roads

ADMS

SOURCES EMISSION EXPOSURE EFFECTS/RECEPTORS

Energy

Agriculture

Industry

Traffic

Sulphur dioxide

Ammonia

Nitrogen oxides

VOCs

Sulphur deposition

Nitrogen deposition

SO2,SO4 air concns

NO2,NO3 air concns

Ozone

Acidification

Eutrophication

Human health

Materials

Yield losses

Surface waters

Terrestial ecosystems

Marine ecosystems

Crops

Forests

Domestic

ParticlesPrimary sources

PM10/2.5 UKIAM

NH4 concn

Air quality

Criteria

EMEP model inter- comparison study with smaller scale models:

Need to be consistent- e.g. imported/exported fluxes

Model Dry Wet Total

UKIAMEMEP 1EMEP 2

87.8 - 82.0

156.4 - 130.6

244.2 216.8 212.6

SOx dep

Based on CL data for UK from CEH Monkswood

For N deposition spatially targeted measures for NH3 can bring much greater improvement than uniform scaling across the country.

NH3 Cost Curve for Lancashire: MARACCAS model of NARSES project

NARSES project- geographical analysis (10 km grid)

Different types of farming, local conditions-> applicability of measures.

Interaction with other problems- nitrate leaching (NVZs), N2O

Generation of cost curves for localised areas for UKIAM

At even smaller (field) scale other factors such as controlled zones or buffer strips between intense emissions and sensitive ecosystems could make a big difference

Relative effect of primary and secondary emissions

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

=

Log10 distance (km)

Lo

g10

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n

PrimaryLow

SecondaryN

SecondaryS

PrimaryHigh

0.1 1.0 10 100 1000

distance km

NB EMEP assume 5% of S is emitted as SO4- equivalent to 650kt in EU+NMS compared with 2297 kt of primary PM10

12

3

10kmx2500

10-300 x 250

300-1000 x 50

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Exposure

10kmx2500

10-300 x 250

300-1000 x 50

PPM 2nd A2nd B

PM10 Cost Curve - 2010 EmissionsRev 4

7

6

5

3

21 0

98

7 6 5 43

0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

UK Emission of PM10 (kte/annum)

Co

st

(£m

illio

n/a

nn

um

)

BAU

Beyond BAU

UKIAM ->maximise reduction in population exposure at least cost

cum cost

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

cum cost

£m

Pop exp reducn

g/m3

Reduction in population exposure v cost

Emissions %

Point sources

Road transport

Residential Com

Industrial Proc

Agriculture

Other

Exposure contribution %

Point sources

Road transport

Residential Com

Industrial Proc

Agriculture

Other

In this example cost-curves were disaggregated to different sectors.

Because of different geographical distributions and dispersion characteristics the relative contribution of different sectors to population exposure is not the same as the relative emissions.

That is the reduction in population exposure per ton reduced is different for different sectors.

The effect this has on selection of abatement measures can be investigated.

Future developments

• Further work on modelling and linking models; modelling of PM

• Extension to PM2.5

• Link to AQ legislation (and ? NO2)

• Work on NH3 linked to NARSES

• Scenario analysis – e.g. linked to RAINS scenarios

Conclusions:

More detailed studies of embedded regions/national scale can supplement RAINS/European modelling by

i) exploring problems where both local and transboundary sources contribute and

ii) investigating interaction between compliance with emission ceilings and other issues e.g. local air quality