linked environments for atmospheric discovery (lead): web services for meteorological research and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Linked Environments for Atmospheric Discovery (LEAD):
Web Services for Meteorological Research and Education
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What Would YOU Do if These Were About to Occur?
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What THEY Do to Us!!! Each year in the US, mesoscale weather –
local floods, tornadoes, hail, strong winds, lightning, and winter storms – causes hundreds of deaths, routinely disrupts transportation and commerce, and results in annual economic losses > $13B.
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What Weather Technologies Do…
Forecast ModelsNEXRAD Radar
Decision Support Systems
Virtually Nothing!!!
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Tornadic Storms
Moderate Rain
Radars Do Not Adaptively Scan
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Operational Models Run Largely on Fixed Schedules in Fixed Domains
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Cyberinfrastructure is Virtually Static
ENIAC (1948)
ARPANET (1980)
Abilene Backbone (2005)
Earth Simulator (2005)
National Lambda Rail (2005)
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We Teach Using Current Weather Data But Students Don’t Interact
With It
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So What??? Weather is Local, High-Impact, Heterogeneous and Rapidly Evolving…Yet Our
Technologies and Thinking are Static
SevereThunderstorms
FogRain and
Snow
Rain andSnow
IntenseTurbulence
Snow andFreezing
Rain
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The Reality for Society: Dynamic, Local and High
Impact
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A Fundamental Research Question
Can we better understand the atmosphere, educate more effectively about it, and forecast more accurately if we adapt our technologies and approaches to the weather as it occurs?
People, even animals adapt/respond: Why don’t our resources???
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Sponsored by the National Science Foundation
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The LEAD VisionRevolutionize the ability of scientists, students,
and operational practitioners to observe, analyze, predict, understand, and respond to intense local weather by interacting with it
dynamically and adaptively in real time
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What Does Adaptation Really Mean?
What Does it Buy?
Charles Darwin
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Sample Problem: March 2000 Fort Worth Tornadic Storm
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Tornado
Local TV Station Radar
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NWS 12-hr Computer Forecast Valid at 6 pm CDT (near tornado time)
No Explicit Evidence of Precipitation in North Texas
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Reality Was Quite Different!
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LEAD Approach
StreamingObservations
Storms Forming orConditionsFavorable
Forecast Model
On-DemandGrid Computing
Data Mining
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6 pm 7 pm 8 pmR
adar
Xue et al. (2003)
Fort Worth
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6 pm 7 pm 8 pmR
adar
Fcs
t W
ith
Rad
ar D
ata
2 hr 3 hr 4 hr
Xue et al. (2003)
Fort Worth
Fort Worth
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What Does it Take to Make This Possible?
Adaptive weather tools Adaptive sensors Adaptive cyberinfrastructure
In a User-CenteredFramework
Where EverythingCan
Mutually Interact
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How Does LEAD Do It? The Notion of a Web Service
Web Service: A program that carries out a specific set of operations based upon requests from clients
The LEAD architecture is a “Service Oriented Architecture” (SOA), which means that all of the key functions are represented as a set of services.
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Service-Oriented Architecture
Service A(Analysis)
Service B(Model)
Service C(Radar Stream)
Service D(Work Space)
Service E(VO Catalog)
Service F(Viz Engine)
Service G(Monitoring)
Service H(Scheduling)
Service I(Decoder)
Service J(Repository)
Service K(Mining)
Service L(Decoder)
Many others…
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Service B(Model)
Service A(Analysis)
Service C(Radar Stream)
Service D(Work Space)
Service K(Mining)
Service L(Decoder)
Service J(Repository)
Can Solve Broad Classes of Problemsby Linking Services Together in Workflows
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A LEAD Weather Prediction Workflow
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Fault Tolerance in Action
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Back to the Earlier Example…
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As a Forecaster Worried About This Reality…
7 pm
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As a Forecaster Worried About This Reality…
How Much Trust Would You
Place in This Model
Forecast?
3 hr
7 pm
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Actual Radar
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Ensemble Member #1 Ensemble Member #2
Ensemble Member #3 Ensemble Member #4Control Forecast
Actual Radar
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Probability of Intense Precipitation
Model Forecast Radar Observations
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Hazardous Weather Test Bed Collaboration with the
NOAA Storm Prediction Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory
Mid-April through early June Goals – to begin
understanding…– The fundamental
predictability of intense thunderstorms
– The utility of ensemble forecasts compared to single fine-grids
– Value of on-demand forecasts launched manually and automatically
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The Value of Adaptation: Forecaster-Initiated Predictions
Brewster et al. (2008)
Observed Radar Echoes 20 hr Pre-ScheduledForecast
5 hr LEAD Dynamic WRF-ARF With RadarData Assimilation
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Centers of On-Demand Forecast Grids Launched Automatically at NCSA During 2007
Spring Experiment
Launched automatically in response to hazardous weather messages (tornado watches, mesoscale discussions)
Launched based on forecaster guidance
Graphic Courtesy Jay Alameda and Al Rossi, NCSA
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Real Impact!
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Adaptive Observing Systems: Current Operational Radar System in
USNEXRAD Doppler Radar Network
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#2. Earth’s curvature prevents 72% of the atmosphere below 1 km from being
observed
#1. Operates largely independentof the prevailing weather conditions
#3. Operates entirely independent fromthe models and algorithms that use its
data
The Limitations of NEXRAD
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Data Courtesy Brenton MacAloney II, National Weather Service
Tornado Warnings
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year (calander)
Rat
io
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Min
ute
s
Probability of Detection (POD)
False Alarm Ratio (FAR)
Lead Time
NEX
RA
D
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© 1998 Prentice-Hall, Inc. -- From: Lutgens and Tarbuck, The Atmosphere, 7th Ed.
NEXRAD/MPAR ($$$)
0-3 km
CASA ($)
NSF Engineering Research Center
for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere
(CASA)
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Example of Adaptive Sampling
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Oklahoma Test Bed
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NWS Operational (NEXRAD)
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Experimental(CASA)
NWS Operational (NEXRAD)
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Real Time Testing Today
Radar Observations
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Real Time Testing Today
9-Hour Forecast
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9-Hour Forecast
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9-Hour Forecast
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The Million Dollar Question: Will
Computer Models Ever Be Able to Predict
Tornadoes?
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Warn on Explicit Forecast?
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Be careful what you wish for! A one-hour model-based “tornado warning” would be a game changer
Social and behavioral science elements are critical– Why did 550 people die in the US last year from
tornadoes? Our ability to effectively warn the public and
understand its response is relatively crude This is an area ripe for additional research –
and it is ESSENTIAL for making progress
Challenges
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Each set of forecasts (ensemble and individual)– produces 6 TB of output PER DAY– Requires 9000 cores (750 nodes) of the Kraken
Cray XT5 at Oak Ridge– Takes 6.5 hours to run
Provisioning of data in real time Management in a repository – retention
time? Experiment reproducibility!! Creating products that will benefit the public
(smart device location-based warnings)
Other Challenges
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LEAD: Potential to Transform Meteorological Research And Education