2014 CCC Environmental Scan

Link to Watch Live Version

2014 CCC Environmental Scam

Definition of Environmental Scan:Careful monitoring of an organization's internal and external environments for detecting early signs of opportunities and threats that may influence its current and future plans.

Organization of Report:1. National Theme: Accountability & Transparency 2. Demographics & CCC Enrollment3. Occupational Data Sets4. Coconino Community College

• Student Groups• Enrollment Patterns• Programs / Majors & Awards• Big Picture: Course Activity and Student Success• Student Support Services• Finance

Accountability & Transparency- Performance Based Funding

State funding has been based on FTE student enrollment. Provides incentives for access, but not for program completion.

25 States have a funding formula in place based on:• Completion• Time to Degree• Transfer Rates• # Degrees Awarded• # Low SES Graduates

5 States are transitioning to PBF

Source:http://www.ncsl.org/research/education/performance-funding.aspx

Accountability & Transparency - Student Aid

Sources:http://projectonstudentdebt.org/2013_CDR_Spreadsheets.vp.htmlhttp://www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/defaultmanagement/cdr.htmlhttps://www.nslds.ed.gov/nslds_SA/defaultmanagement/search_cohort_3yr2010.cfm

Associates Degree has the Largest Default Rate 18%

AZ 2010 Public Community College AVG Default = 24%

CCC’s 2010 3 YR Default = 23%

No

Loan

s

No

Loan

s

• Universal Course Shell Template Design and Implementation to Enhance Student Outcomes in Online Coursework.pdf

• Using a Learning Management System to Facilitate Learning Outcomes Assessment.pdf

Accountability & Transparency - Technology

Using Technology to Provide cost effective access to opportunity. Online & Blended Learning – Evolution of Pedagogy in Virtual Space

Consistency in Curriculum Content, Design, Presentation & Assessment Across All Delivery Modalities and Programs

READ

2013 Demographics - ArizonansLived Worked

http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

2013 Demographics – Coconino ResidentsLived Worked

Coconino County12% Individuals or Corporations

75% Large Ranches Aprox. Ten Owners38% Tribal28% Forest Service5% BLM7% National Parks10% State

Demographics

Source:http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml###

2012 Median Earnings by Education Less than high school graduate $19,401 +/-294 $18,813 +/-3,509 $20,341 +/-4,114 High school graduate $26,793 +/-214 $26,465 +/-1,464 $25,643 +/-4,372 Some college or associate's degree $33,887 +/-257 $30,427 +/-1,614 $31,210 +/-2,445 Bachelor's degree $48,372 +/-468 $37,998 +/-2,529 $36,750 +/-2,955 Graduate or professional degree $61,760 +/-789 $52,667 +/-2,188 $54,342 +/-3,699

2012 Educational AttainmentAZ Population 25 years and over 4,149,955 +/-815 78,132 +/-185 34,585 +/-709Less than 9th grade 7% +/-0.1 5% +/-0.5 3% +/-1.0

9th to 12th grade, no diploma 8% +/-0.1 8% +/-0.8 6% +/-1.1

High school graduate 24% +/-0.2 22% +/-1.4 17% +/-2.0

Some college, no degree 26% +/-0.2 26% +/-1.2 23% +/-1.6

Associate's degree 8% +/-0.1 8% +/-0.8 9% +/-1.3

Bachelor's degree 17% +/-0.2 18% +/-1.2 24% +/-1.6

Graduate or professional degree 10% +/-0.1 13% +/-0.8 19% +/-1.3

Race / EthnicityTotal 6,392,017 100% 134,421 100% 65870 100%White 3,695,647 58% 74,231 55% 42446 64%Hispanic or Latino 1,895,149 30% 18,166 14% 12094 18%American Indian and Alaska Native 257,426 4% 35,610 27% 7237 11%Black or African American 239,101 4% 1,495 1% 1173 2%Asian 170,509 3% 1,787 1% 1191 2%Two or More Races 114,631 2% 2,802 2% 1509 2%Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 10,959 0% 138 0% 99 0%Other 8,595 0% 192 0% 121 0%

Arizona Coconino Flagstaff

Despite lower earnings in Flagstaff for those with Bachelors and Graduate degrees, there is a larger proportion of them here.Flagstaff is a desirable place to live.

Flag has lower proportion of Natives than Coconino County

Demographics – CCC EnrollmentMap of FA13 CCC Enrollment - Permanent Address

Conclusions:Most CCC students originate from Flagstaff.

Though 30% of CCC students originate from outside of the county, Race / Ethnicity is fairly representative of Coconino County.

Coconino - City PercentFlagstaff 81%Tuba City 6%Page 5%Williams 3%Other 7%

Residence PercentCoconino 69%Maricopa 10%Other AZ 11%Out of State 10%

DemographicsRace / EthnicityTotal 6,392,017 100% 134,421 100% 65,870 100% 3,698 100%White 3,695,647 58% 74,231 55% 42,446 64% 1,858 50%Hispanic or Latino 1,895,149 30% 18,166 14% 12,094 18% 425 11%American Indian and Alaska Native 257,426 4% 35,610 27% 7,237 11% 730 20%Black or African American 239,101 4% 1,495 1% 1,173 2% 43 1%Asian 170,509 3% 1,787 1% 1,191 2% 32 1%Two or More Races 114,631 2% 2,802 2% 1,509 2% 105 3%Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 10,959 0% 138 0% 99 0% 15 0%Other 8,595 0% 192 0% 121 0% 490 13%

Arizona Coconino Flagstaff FA13 CCC

CCC Enrollment from Coconino County High Schools6 of 13 Coconino County H.S. are located in Flagstaff, and they account for 64% of total 2013 County H.S. enrollment.

After accounting for the size of the H.S. Grad. Class, most Flagstaff H.S. have greater CCC enrollment than H.S. outside of Flagstaff.

CCC Enrollment – Dual, CAVIAT, & High SchoolsSchool # stu # CCC after HS

No 39% 19%Yes 61% 22%

No 36% 19%Yes 64% 24%

No 14% 3%Yes 86% 14%

No 20% 7%Yes 80% 8%

No 13% 6%Yes 87% 21%

No 26% 6%Yes 74% 3%

No 68% 23%Yes 32% 8%

Northland Prep Academy, AZ 47 No 100% 0%

No 17% 3%Yes 83% 9%

No 97% 58%Yes 3% 0%

No 12% 0%Yes 88% 0%

No 94% 35%Yes 6% 6%

No 80% 0%Yes 20% 0%

17

5

Dual/Caviat

AY2010-11 to AY2011-12 Dual & CAVIAT Statistics for AY2013-14 CCC

95

77

35

31

25

618

505

415

208

98

Tse'yaato' HS, Page, AZ

Tuba City Alternative, AZ

Grey Hills HS,Tuba City

Ponderosa HS, Flagstaff

Grand Canyon High School

Flagstaff Arts & Lead Ac, AZ

Fredonia High School

Flagstaff High School

Coconino High School

Page High School

Tuba City High School

Williams High School

High Rate of Program Participation

Participants enroll at CCC after HS graduation more than non-participants

Dual / CAVIAT that go on to be CCC students earned 3 X more degrees / certs than those that did not participate in the H.S. programs.

Bureau of Labor Statistics & National Center for Education Statistics

Standard Occupation Classification (SOC)The SOC system is used by Federal statistical agencies to classify workers into occupational categories for the purpose of collecting, calculating, or disseminating data. All workers are classified into one of 840 detailed occupations according to their occupational definition.

Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP)The CIP is a taxonomic coding scheme that contains titles and descriptions of primarily postsecondary instructional programs. It was developed to facilitate NCES’ collection and reporting of postsecondary degree completions by major field of study using standard classifications that capture the majority of reportable program activity.

Sources:http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_stru.htmhttp://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2002165http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/cipcode/resources.aspx?y=55

SOC to CCC CIP.xlsxSOC Definitions.xlsx

Select

Definitions for Occupational Data Sets

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Education by Occupation

Most Occupations List a Typical Education Needed for Entry

Source:http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_data_occupational_data.htm

Definitions for Occupational Data Sets

Less than high schoolHigh school diploma or equivalentPostsecondary non-degree awardSome college, no degreeAssociate's degreeBachelor's degreeMaster's degreeDoctoral or professional degree

Bureau of Labor Statistics

State Occupational Employment Projections

Developed in the labor market information sections of each State Employment Security Agency.

Employment may not be sufficient to warrant the development of occupational projections in every occupation in each State, or the data may be confidential. Occupations for which projections are not available are indicated by empty cells.

Source:http://www.projectionscentral.com/

Additional Information on Occupation Projectionshttp://www.bls.gov/ooh/

Definitions for Occupational Data Sets

Bureau of Labor Statistics

May 2013 Occupational Employment Statistics

The Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program produces employment and wage estimates annually for over 800 occupations. These estimates are available for the nation as a whole, for individual States, and for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. NOTE: Coconino County = Flagstaff Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

Uses of OES data• Analysis of occupational employment • Analysis of occupational wages • Development of occupational projections • Vocational counseling and planning • Industry skill and technology studies • Market analysis

Source:http://www.bls.gov/oes/home.htm

Definitions for Occupational Data Sets

Living WageAcross all family sizes, the living wage exceeds the poverty threshold, often used to identify need.The cost of housing and childcare for families with children exceeds all other expenses.The living wage varies based on the cost of living and taxes where families live.

http://livingwage.mit.edu/

Arizona Living Wage

Coconino County Living Wage

Data Coding: For 1 Adult Below Living Wage Just Above Living Wage Max Earning

Definitions for Occupational Data Sets

Occupational Data Sets (Arizona & Coconino)Data SourcesStandard Occupational Codes (2013)Typical Education for Entry in an OccupationCCC Degree/Cert mapped to OccupationsTotal Employment by Occupation for AZ & Coconino CountyShort & Long Term AZ Occupation Projections (% Change & Annual Openings)Occupation Median Hourly Wage for AZ & Coconino CountyOccupation Median Annual Wage for AZ & Coconino County

2013 Arizona.xlsx2013 Coconino.xlsx

Select

Coconino CountyMany occupations barely pay a living wage for 1 adult with no children.

Many occupations that provide a higher wage, require more than an associates degree, also tend to employ few in the county, and have poor projections for employment growth.

Promising occupational areas: Healthcare, Protective Services, & Construction. Though many occupational areas may not be promising overall, there are specific occupations within some areas that may be good options for CCC students.

ArizonaOccupation wages are greater and cost of living is less than in Coconino County.Most promising occupational areas: Healthcare & Construction.Overall, there are more occupational options for CCC students.

2013 AZ & Coconino Data Sets _General Conclusions

Overview of Occupational Projections to 2022Job Growth & Education Requirements through 2020

Read

Coconino Community College: Enrollment Groups

Dual / CAVIAT

Other New

1st Time

Cont.

New Tran.

Cont.

Award

Transfer

Stop Out

Pipeline

We are particularly interested in the 1st time to Continuing path.

CCC FA11 – FA12 Retention 65%, AZ average 77%. Select

Coconino Community College: Enrollment

1st Time Student Enrollment Patterns.pdfSelect

T_1 First Time Students

1) Many distinct patterns of enrollment.

2) Few of which support the traditional notion enrollment.

3) Conventional characterization of part-time or full-time students is questionable.

4) Variation in enrollment patterns create program completion challenges.

Coconino Community College: Enrollment & Awards

1st Time Student Enrollment Patterns.pdfSelect

T_1 First Time Students

1) Few students earn a degree or certificate from CCC.

2) The greatest % of awards occurs around 7-10 semesters or in years three and four.

3) Students that started out in the Full Time group earned more awards. NOTE: Correlation ≠ Causation

Coconino Community College: Enrollment & Transfer

1st Time Student Enrollment Patterns.pdfSelect

T_1 First Time Students

1) CCC students transfer at a very high rate.

2) Transfer is highest (7%) just after students first Fall term at CCC (T_2).

3) Transfer is nearly as high (6%) in the subsequent Fall (T_4).

4) There is a gradual decrease in transfer rates each Fall Term (T_4-6%, T_7-5%, T_10-4%).

Coconino Community College: Awards & Transfer

CCCVery Few Annual Awards 16% (AZ 30%)Many Transfers without CCC Award 37% (23%)

AZCC 2014 District Outcomes Report.pdfAZCC 2014 Student Progress and Outcomes Report.pdfCCC 2014 Student Progress and Outcomes Report.pdf

Read

Coconino Community College: Programs (Declared Majors)

80%

CAUTION: Declared Majors may not be a good way to gauge program activity. Students are free to declare and change majors in most programs at any time. Looking at program completion and/or the specific classes taken by students is a better estimate of program activity!

Warning: Gainful Employment

Coconino Community College: Awards Completion

81%

AY2013 IPEDS Program Awards AZ CC's CCC Flg Col of AMLiberal Arts and Sciences General Studies and Humanities Associate's degree 19% 41%Visual and Performing Arts Certificates 12%Health Professions and Related Programs Certificates 8% 2%Business Management Marketing and Related Support Services Certificates 7% 1%Health Professions and Related Programs Associate's degree 7% 26% 95%Liberal Arts and Sciences General Studies and Humanities Certificates 7% 1%Homeland Security Law Enforcement Firefighting and Related Protective Service Certificates 6% 1%Business Management Marketing and Related Support Services Associate's degree 4% 7% 3%Construction Trades Certificates 4%Mechanic and Repair Technologies/Technicians Certificates 3%Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services Certificates 3%Military Technologies and Applied Sciences Associate's degree 2%Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies Certificates 2%Physical Sciences Associate's degree 2%Homeland Security Law Enforcement Firefighting and Related Protective Service Associate's degree 1% 8%Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services Associate's degree 1% 3%Education Associate's degree 1% 2%Transportation and Materials Moving Certificates 1%Visual and Performing Arts Associate's degree 1% 1%Education Certificates 1% 0%Precision Production Certificates 1% 0%Communications Technologies/Technicians and Support Services Certificates 1%Engineering Technologies and Engineering-related Fields Associate's degree 1% 3%Personal and Culinary Services Certificates 1%Mechanic and Repair Technologies/Technicians Associate's degree 1%Engineering Technologies and Engineering-related Fields Certificates 0% 3%Family and Consumer Sciences/Human Sciences Certificates 0%Legal Professions and Studies Certificates 0%Legal Professions and Studies Associate's degree 0%Personal and Culinary Services Associate's degree 0%Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies Associate's degree 0%Family and Consumer Sciences/Human Sciences Associate's degree 0%Agriculture Agriculture Operations and Related Sciences Certificates 0%Social Sciences Associate's degree 0% 1%Communications Technologies/Technicians and Support Services Associate's degree 0%Transportation and Materials Moving Associate's degree 0%Foreign Languages Literatures and Linguistics Certificates 0% 1%Construction Trades Associate's degree 0%Biological and Biomedical Sciences Associate's degree 0%Psychology Associate's degree 0% 2%

SelectAZ Community College Program Activity.xlsx

Lib Arts & Sciences General Studies & Humanities Associates most popular in AZ.

Flag College of America Associate Awards were 95% in Health Professions (n=69).

Coconino Community College: Bigger PictureData Content:FA13 Student Groups: Dual/CAVIAT, 1st Time, New CCC Transfer, ContinuingAY2013-14 Courses: 316 (Subjects: 56)Active Programs/Majors: 64Instructional Method: In Person, RemoteCourse Success: Pass (A,B,C) Fail (D,F,W)

Exploratory Data Analysis

AY2013-14 Dual CAVIAT Course Activity.xlsxAY2013-14 1st Time Course Activity.xlsx

AY2013-14 New Transfer Course Activity.xlsxAY2013-14 Continuing Course Activity.xlsx

AY2013-14 Course Activity by Subj-Level.xlsx

Select

Data KeyIn Person PassPass Remote

In Person FailRemote Fail

In Person Remote

ObservationsDual / CAVIAT had highest success rate 95% (1st 79%, Transfers 82%, Continuing 84%).

Classes grouped into Subjects & Levels: Remedial, 100 Level, 200 Level

Coconino Community College: Bigger Picture

Subject and Level activity is similar across student groups !?

1st time student course success is substantially lower than continuing students in specific subject areas. Transfer student course success rate is substantially lower than continuing students in specific areas.

Select

Activity & Success by Level.xlsx

Similar Activity

Different Success

Coconino Community College: Bigger Picture

Select

Course Success Rates Dashboard

18

45

End of Term

Start of TermNo Refund

FTSE

Grades:Withdraw (W)

Early Drops: Impact• Students $$$• FT/PT Fin. Aid• Section Size Calc.

Graduating Student Survey AY2013-14

Coconino Community College: Support Services

Graduating Student Survey AY2013-14

Coconino Community College: Support Services

What would you tell new first year students?

“Be careful what major/program you invest your time in.”

“Don’t waste time taking classes that don’t have any relation to your major. stay focused.”

“Make sure you get an advisor who can point you in the right direction with a plan for classes to take each semester so you’re not wasting your time on classes that may not really be necessary for your program of interest.”

“Meet with advising to plan out schedule.”“Meet with advisors to develop the best plan for graduation.”“Meet with an advisor as often as possible, monthly even.”“Meet with an advisor every semester.”“Meet with an advisor right away, develop a plan, and stick to the plan.”

“Find the one teacher who will help you no matter what.”

20. I sought formal advisement on a regular basis (at least once a semester). 50 100%

6. Strongly Agree 23 46%5. Agree 17 34%4. Slightly Agree 6 12%3. Slightly Disagree 1 2%2. Disagree 2 4%1. Strongly Disagree 1 2%

Advising was the top rated service, with 80% indicating that it is Extremely Important!

Grad Surveys 2013-14.xlsx

Select

Which Colleges are like CCC and what are they doing? Identifying Comparison Institutions

– Campus setting– Miles to University– Housing– Student Population– Student Faculty ratio– % Full time– % Native American– % White– FT Fall-to-Fall Retention– Grad Rate– Transfer-out rate– Athletics– Loan default rate

Coconino Community College: Support Services

21 Colleges

Comparison Institutions.xlsxStudent Services Programs.docxBlue Mountain Career Pathways

Select

Recent PastRevenue and Expenditures calculated at the program level.

Near FutureRevenue and Expenditures calculated at the subject level.

Coconino Community College: Finance

Administration of Justice EnglishAllied Health Fine ArtsBusiness LanguagesCertified Nursing Assistant Liberal StudiesComputer Information Systems/CISCO MathematicsEducation & Development SciencesEmergency Med. Svcs./Fire Science Social and Behavioral Sciences

Emergency Medical ServicesFire Science

NursingVocational Education

Arts and SciencesCTE

ACC AES AGR AHS AJS ANT ART ASL AUT BIO BUS CHMCIS CPS CRP CTM DAN DFT ECE ECN EDU EMS ENG ENVFOR FRE FSC GEO GER GLG HDE HIS HRM HUM ITA ITPJPN LDR MAT MSC MUP MUS NAV NTR NUR PHI PHY POSPSY RDG REL SOC SPA SPC THR WLD

Long-Term Financial Planning• The College has a long-term structural deficit because of very low property tax rates

and State Aid. The chart below shows the General Fund revenues and expenses after the implementation of the Financial Austerity Plan where the expenses exceed revenues in FY 2022.

• Assumptions:– Revenues – Average growth of 2.4%:

• Property Tax Collections – 2% levy increase plus 1% new construction growth• Tuition rates – $2 increase per year to standard rate• Enrollment growth - 1% per year based upon county population growth trend• State Aid – 0% growth

– Expenditures - Average growth of 3.4%:• Personnel cost – 11 yr. average increases of 3.8% - This average increase includes increased part-time

faculty associated with 1% enrolment growth and the planned increase of 3 advisors when the TAACCCT grant ends.

• All other expense categories – average increases of 2.5% per year including increased supplies associated with 1% enrollment growth per year.

Long-Term Financial Planning

Summary:Performance Based Funding – Report our Student SuccessStudent Loan Default Rates - Success in EmploymentConsistency - Student Success

CCC Programs & Occupations – Offering Viable Options

Dual / CAVIAT (3 x Degrees Certs & 95% Course Success)1st Time Student to Continuing Student Pathway – Weak

Providing Many Options but Enrollment & Completion in FEW areas!SS- Advising, Advising, Advising – Mandatory?Financial Sustainability- Long Term Plan