Linda Davies – Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London

Sheate B.(Imperial), Wade R.(Abertay), Scholes L.(Middlesex), Gaston K.(Sheffield), Batty M.(UCL), Grimmond S.(King’s),

Harris J.(Cranfield), Beck H.(CABE Space), Kwiatkowski L.(Imperial), Metcalfe R.(Oxford)

2

Phase 1 – Evolving Conceptual Framework issues

Biodiversity

Go

od

s

Va

lue

s

Humanwellbeing

Future Scenarios for the UK

Ecosystems

Ecosystem services

Drivers of Change• Environmental change (e.g. rainfall, sea level)• Trends (e.g. markets, preferences,

demographic)• Policies

3

Avoiding double accounting – adapted from Fisher et al 2008Physical and chemical inputs People

Clean water

provision

Food production

Water regulation

Trees

Final ecosystem services

Other capitalinputs

Drinking water

Cereals, meat, etc.

Flood protection

Timber

Goods/Benefits

£

£

£

£

Value of goods...

£

£

£

£

...of which ES value

Primary and intermediate processes

Pollination

Nutrientcycling

SoilFormation

Primaryproduction

Biomass

Biodiversity

4

Ecosystem type, services and examples of goods Ecosystem

service type

Primary & Intermediate ecosystem services and

processes Final ecosystem services (example of goods)

Crops, livestock, fisheries (food) Peat bog (energy, fertiliser) Water quantity (domestic and industrial water) Trees (energy, carbon sequestration) Purified water (drinking water)

Provisioning

Wild species diversity (crop relatives, bio-prospecting) Meaningful places (aesthetics, recreation, tourism,

education) Cultural Wildlife (aesthetics, education, tourism, recreation)

Climate regulation Local climate (equable climate) Pollination Stabilising vegetation and habitats (erosion control) Water availability (flood prevention) Waste breakdown and accumulation (healthy environment) Natural enemies (disease control)

Regulating

Detoxification (clean air and water) Weathering Primary production Decomposition Soil formation Nutrient cycling Water cycling

Supporting

Ecological interactions

5

Valuation of goods and ecosystem services

Primary production

Decomposition

Soil formation

Nutrient cycling

Water cycling

Weathering

Climate regulation

Pollination

Evolutionary processes

Ecological interactions

Crops, livestock, fisheries

Water availability

Trees

Peat

Wild species diversity

Drinking water

Food

Fibre

Energy

Natural medicine

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

£

Final ecosystem services Goods/Benefits

Value of goods...

…ES value

Primary and intermediate processes

Physical and chemical inputs PeopleOther capitalinputs

Natural enemies

Detoxification

Local climate

Waste breakdown

Purified water

Stabilising vegetation

Meaningful places

Wild species diversity

Unknown services

Flood control

Equable climate

Disease control

Pollution control

Erosion control

Unknown

Good health

6

List of Change MeasuresEnvironmental change

Climate change (temperature, precipitation)

Sea level

TrendsLand use / land cover

Species introduction / removal

External inputs (pollution emissions, fertiliser inputs)

Harvest / resource use

Demographic (population growth, demographic change, ethnicity, migration)

Technology adaptation (agricultural prices, market forces??)

PoliciesGovernment subsidy levels

Pollution control legislation

Defining the Urban Environment• Identified need to use more detailed urban land

classifications than those present in Land cover maps• The use of Office of National Statistics urban area

definitions and corresponding area boundaries is proposed – related to population size

• Urban assessment will include recognition of scale:

• 84% population of England live in urban areas (50m)• Country and regional differences

Small cities (<50,000)

Medium cities (50,000-250,000)

Large cities (>250,000)

Sub-urban habitat classes

Natural and semi-natural urban green space

Public parks and gardens Green corridors

Outdoor sports facilities

Amenity green space

Allotments, community

gardens and urban farms

Cemeteries and churchyards Street trees

Brownfield land (inc. domestic

gardens)

Water (natural) Water (artificial) Green belt

Classes were grouped with reference to Planning Policy Guidance 17 and the provision of ecosystem services and goods

Green belt important as peri-urban mixed habitat

Goods from the urban habitat Cultural services Recreation (inc. exercise), aesthetics, tourism, cultural heritage,

education, promotion of social cohesion and reduced crimeRegulatory services• Flood protection, clean air and water, equable climate, noise

reduction, erosion control, waste managementProvisional services• Food, fibre, drinking waterMulti-functionality of open spaces: Gardens, allotments (16/16) v Brownfield (5/16)

Services from the Urban habitatPr

imar

y se

rvic

es Primary production

Nutrient cycling

Soil formation

Water cycling

Inte

rmed

iate

ser

vice

s Climate regulation

Pollution regulation

Pollination

Ecological interactions

Fina

l ser

vice

s Crops, fisheriesGreen waste Water quantity Purified water TreesWater availabilityDetoxificationLocal climateStabilising vegetation and habitatsNoise regulationWaste breakdown Meaningful places Wild species diversity

Trends in sub-urban habitats• Difficult to interpret temporal and spatial trends due to lack of detailed

national mapping and inconsistencies in typology, data collection and accessibility at the local and regional level.

• However, good scope for case studies

Specific areas of interest:• Allotments: over the last 50 years – declined by 90%• SO2 down, NO2,PM10 exceed health standards, Ozone up• Greenbelt : new housing at rate of 2% per annum • Urban street trees - decline in tree planting over last decade and deterioration in inner city tree health • The decline in extent of private gardens and associated biodiversity• Biodiversity: decline in high density areas • Impact of increasing extent of non-permeable surfaces • Extent and trends in brownfield ?

Drivers of change• Climate: increase in summer temperatures incr. heat island effect, limited cooling space and

surfaces• Extreme conditions (rainfall) more likely• Eutrophication – frequent, abundant lichens in

London are all nitrophytes, 50 years ago all acidophytes - affects biodiversity and community st.

• Population increase – more housing on brownfield, more fragmentation, less soil, lower biodiversity

• Some positive signs - transport successes

Sustainable managementKnowledge gaps

• Multi-functional space, SUDs, tree strategy• Better use of brownfield• No inventory of urban green space: land classification

datasets are disparate, lack harmonisation, of poor resolution

• Typology • Very limited knowledge of urban biodiversity and its

importance to human health• Poor knowledge of gardens – surfaces and

biodiversity

Where do we go from here?Potential scenarios:• Ecosystem services from Brownfield and Green Belt•Permeable services (e.g. benefits from various policies, surfaces, i.e.. restricting front garden conversion to parking)•River Brent restoration study•Barnes Wetland (species, water quality, public perception)•Temp increase under different % land cover (trees, )•Thames gateway as a site for scenario testing – land use data

Where is the desired focus?