lincoln crowne copper gold weekly report 24062013

24 June 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made.

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Global Economy Fundamentals

Source: Capital IQ, LME,COMEX, SHFE, Thomson Reuters, LCC research Note: SHFE copper price is based on the LME 3-month price and includes CIF premium, tax and duty.

MetalsLast Close Price

(in USD)Energy and Commodities

Last Close Price

(in USD)

Gold Comex ($/oz) 1299 ▼ -17% ▲ 0% ▲ 0% Crude Oil ($/barrel) 98.1 ▲ 10.9% ▲ 4.2% ▲ 2%

Silver ($/oz) 20.2 ▼ -29% ▼ -2% ▲ 1% Natural Gas ($/gallon) 3.8 ▲ 12.4% ▼ -12.8% ▼ -2%

Copper LME ($/lb) 3.10 ▼ -9% ▼ -3% ▼ -2% Coal - Central Appalachian 57.3 ▼ -0.7% ▼ -6.8% ▼ -6%

Platinum ($/oz) 1447 ▼ -5% ▼ 0% ▼ -4% Corn ($/bushel) 5.3 ▼ -24.6% ▼ -0.4% ▼ -5%

Palladium ($/oz) 730 ▲ 8% ▲ 1% ▼ -4% Wheat ($/bushel) 6.9 ▼ -12.9% ▼ -1.2% ▼ -1%

Exchange Rates Last Close Price Global Index Last Close Price

AUD/USD 0.95 ▼ -8% ▼ -1% ▲ 1% ASX 200 4738.8 ▲ 4% ▼ -4% ▲ 1%

EUR/USD 1.33 ▲ 1% ▲ 3% ▲ 1% Dow Jones Industry Average 15070.2 ▲ 14% ▼ -1% ▼ -1%

GBP/USD 1.57 ▼ -3% ▲ 4% ▲ 1% NYSE 9263.7 ▲ 10% ▼ -2% ▼ -1%

RMB/USD 0.16 ▲ 2% ▼ 0% ▲ 0% FTSE 100 6308.3 ▲ 6% ▼ -5% ▼ -2%

INR/USD 0.0174 ▼ -4% ▼ -3% ▼ -1% Shang Hai Exchange 2162.0 ▲ 1% ▼ -6% ▼ -2%

YEN/USD 0.0106 ▼ -11% ▲ 6% ▲ 3% Nikkei 225 12686.5 ▲ 25% ▼ -13% ▼ -1%

CAD/USD 0.98 ▼ -2% ▲ 1% ▲ 0% CAC 40 3805.2 ▲ 5% ▼ -4% ▼ -2%

ZAR/USD 0.10 ▼ -15% ▼ -4% ▼ 0% German DAX 8128.0 ▲ 7% ▼ -2% ▼ -2%

CHF/USD 1.09 ▼ 0% ▲ 4% ▲ 2% Hang Seng Index 20969.1 ▼ -7% ▼ -8% ▼ -3%

4-Week Change

4-Week ChangeYTD Change

YTD Change Week Change

Week Change

4-Week Change Week Change

Week Change4-Week ChangeYTD Change

YTD Change

4600

4800

5000

5200

5400

Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13

S&P/ASX 300 Index 3-Month Performance(XJO)

3.50

3.70

3.90

4.10

4.30

4.50

0

20

40

60

80

100


SHFE Copper Daily Price and Stocks

Stocks ('000 t) Price (US$/lb)

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700


USD Gold Price 3-Month Performance(US$/oz)

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0


LME Copper Daily Price and Volume

Volume ('000 lot) Price (US$/lb)

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


LME Copper Daily Price and Stocks


3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

0

50

100

150

200


COMEX Copper Daily Price and Volume


3.50

3.70

3.90

4.10

4.30

4.50

0

20

40

60

80

100


SHFE Copper Daily Price and Volume


60

65

70

75

80


3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

COMEX Copper Daily Price and Stocks


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Jan 08 Nov 08 Oct 09 Sep 10 Aug 11 Jul 12 Jun 13

S&P ASX Small Resources Index (XSR)



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Markets

Base and precious metals have been hit after Ben Bernanke hinted the US Federal Reserve ultra-loose monetary policy may come to an end and the release of weak economic data from China.

China June flash HSBC PMI hits 9-month low on weak demand. The flash HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 48.3 in June from May's final reading of 49.2, drifting further away from the 50-point level demarcating expansion from contraction. It was the weakest level since September 2012.

Resource stocks are decimated, Barrick dropped to a 21-year low.

In parallel, the rapid fall of the A$/US$ exchange rate is providing some relief to Australian producers.

For the second time, Rio Tinto has been forced to delay the first shipment from the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in Mongolia. All necessary permits have been received from relevant authorities. However, plans to start shipping last Friday have been postponed at the request of the government. Uncertainty over what was behind the delay sparked an exodus out of shares from Canadian and Australian listed miners exposed to the country. Journalists had been invited to attend a ceremony on June 14 to mark the first exports. That was postponed to June 21, but the event was again cancelled at the last minute. Mongolia is due to hold a presidential election on June 26.

Nickel price to weaken further as pig iron sector cuts costs. Technical innovations have slashed costs, which have in turn lowered the floor for nickel prices. The break-even cost for nickel pig iron produced by rotary kiln electric furnace (RKEF) technology is now as low as US$12,500/t and its market share has soared. Production of nickel pig iron in China, a cheaper substitute for pure nickel used as feedstock by stainless steel mills, has more than quadrupled to an estimated 400,000t this year from 89,000t in 2008. Market size is 1.8-2.0mt.

Australian Copper Producers

Source: Capital IQ, company announcements, LCC research. C1 and C3 costs as reported in last quarter, except for TGS, LCC estimate.

Australian Copper Watch List

Source: Capital IQ, company announcements, LCC research. C1 costs and capex as estimated and announced.

Ticker Company NameOpen

Price

Close

Price

High

Price

Low

Price

Market

Cap

(A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)

EV

(A$m)EV/EBITDA

Ore

Reserve

(mt Cu)

EV/Ore

Reserve

(¢/lb)

Project

C1

Costs

($/lb)

C3 Costs

($/lb)

ABY Aditya Birla Minerals 0.40 0.42 0.42 0.00 ▲ 8.9% 132 100 32 0.4x 0.473 3 Nifty 2.32 N/A

AOH Altona Mining 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.15 ▼ -9.1% 79 23 79 N/M 0.061 59 Kylylahti 1.30 2.31

DML Discovery Metals 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.17 ▲ 2.7% 93 17 255 N/M 0.403 29 Boseto N/A N/A

HGO Hillgrove Resources 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06 ▼ -12.3% 61 17 95 4.6x 0.125 34 Kanmantoo 3.15 4.42

IVA Inova Resources 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.16 ▲ 23.7% 143 38 106 N/M 0.080 60 Osborne 2.85 4.27

OZL OZ Minerals 4.07 4.15 4.23 3.96 ▲ 1.7% 1258 659 599 1.8x 0.748 36 Prominent Hill 1.85 3.23

PNA PanAust 2.20 1.98 2.18 1.91 ▼ -13.5% 1201 104 1256 4.5x 1.127 56 Phu Kham 1.28 1.98

SFR Sandfire Resources 6.05 5.49 0.00 5.05 ▼ -6.6% 854 110 1122 6.7x 0.466 109 DeGrussa N/A N/A

SRQ Straits Resources 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 ▼ -6.7% 16 57 67 5.2x 0.178 17 Tritton 2.37 2.38

TGS Tiger Resources 0.21 0.19 0.00 0.18 ▼ -7.4% 125 19 112 3.3x 0.445 11 Kipoi 1.07 N/A

Weekly

Change


Price

Close

Price

High

Price

Low

Price

Market

Cap

(A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)

EV

(A$m)

Mineral

Resource (mt

Cu)

EV/Mineral

Resource

(¢/lb)

ProjectC1 Costs

($/lb)

Capex

(US$m)

AVB Avanco Resources 0.08 0.06 0.00 0.06 ▼ -3.3% 65 7 53 0.755 3.2 Antas/Pedra Blanca 1.10 50

FND Finders Resources 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.17 ▲ 0.1% 62 3 68 0.209 15 Wetar 1.07 167

HAV Havilah Resources 0.22 0.21 0.00 0.21 ▼ -6.5% 25 7 23 0.623 1.6 Kalkaroo N/A 80

HCH Hot Chili 0.50 0.48 0.00 0.46 ▼ -7.8% 143 25 117 0.920 5.8 Productora 1.35 600

MMC Marengo Mining 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05 ▲ 0.0% 57 6 77 0.806 4.3 Yandera n/a 1800

MNC Metminco 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 ▼ -25.1% 23 15 15 6.538 0.1 Los Calatos 1.09 1500

RXM Rex Minerals 0.33 0.36 0.00 0.32 ▲ 8.5% 67 34 26 1.980 0.6 Hillside 1.20 900

ROL Robust Resources 0.22 0.23 0.00 0.21 ▲ 5.1% 20 23 -2 0.077 -1.4 Andash N/A 96

YTC YTC Resources 0.19 0.17 0.00 0.16 ▼ -5.0% 45 5 48 0.091 24 Nymagee N/A N/A

Weekly

Change



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Companies

Tiger Resources (ASX:TGS) has increased in production guidance for 2013 for the Stage 1 HMS plant at the Kipoi

project in the DRC. Kipoi to a range of 41,000t to 43,000t copper in concentrate vs. 37,000t previously. Year-to-date

production to the end of May is 16,182t, supporting a production estimate of 19,500t for H1 2013. The construction of

the Stage 2 SXEW plant remains on schedule for completion by mid-2014 within the project budget of US$161

million. To date, principal contractor Senet of South Africa has outperformed contract expectations. TGS share price

is back to the level of May 2011, when production started at Kipoi.

Indophil Resources (ASX:IRN) is active discussions with its Tampakan project JV partner Glencore Xstrata, after the major miner issued proceedings in the Supreme Court of Queensland alleging shares in Sagittarius Mines (the holder of the Tampakan FTAA) had not been transferred after the 2007 deal.

The board of Intrepid Mines (ASX:IAU) has managed to fight off an attempt by a group of shareholders to take control of the company. Shareholders voted against the removal of Intrepid chairman Ian McMaster, deputy chairman Colin Jackson, chief executive officer Brad Gordon, and directors Adrianto Machribie and Laurence Curtis. As a result, resolutions put forward by Hong Kong firm Quantum Pacific Capital proposing the appointment of Quantum Pacific founder Greg Mazur, investment banker Paul Lim, former Ernst & Young partner Cliff Sanderson and former Focus Minerals boss Campbell Baird were not put to the meeting of shareholders.

Reed Resources (ASX:RDR) has provided an update on operations at the Meekatharra gold project in WA. To the end of May, approximately 20,500oz of gold had been mined from the Bluebird open pit, versus an estimated ore reserve for the same period of approximately 22,600oz. The variance in mined ounces is principally attributable to ounces that have been previously mined and not recorded nor apparent from reasonable inspection due to back filling from historical mining and mill tailings deposition.

Azumah Resources (ASX:AZM) is anticipating a material reserve increase for its flagship Wa project in Ghana that

will underpin an updated feasibility study into a larger stage one operation with higher annual production to about

100,000oz average (prev. 67,000oz), increased throughput to 1.3Mtpa (prev. 1.0Mtpa), increased head grade to 2.2

– 2.4g/t Au (prev. 2.0g/t Au), lower LOM cash costs of >US$700/oz (prev. ~US$802/oz)

As part of cost cutting measures, cashed-up (A$54m) Gryphon Minerals (ASX:GRY) has placed the manufacture of the Banfora mill on standby. Gryphon is reducing overheads and conducting a cost review.

Mining investment company Lion Selection Group (ASX:LSX) has raised A$10 million (first raising since 1997) to take advantage of opportunities in the sector. Lion is seeing a multitude of well-valued opportunities from both its existing investment pool and potential new investments.

Indochine Mining (ASX:IDC) has finalised a A$3.85 million capital raising via a private placement of 55 million shares at 7¢ per share with existing institutional and sophisticated investors. Funds from the placement will be used for focused drilling on high-grade gold zones at the Mt Kare project in PNG and for working capital.



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Australian Gold Producers

Source: Capital IQ, Goldnerds, LCC research.

Australian Gold Watch List

Source: Capital IQ, LCC research.


Price

Close

Price

High

Price

Low

Price

Weekly

Change

Market

Cap (A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)

Debt

(A$m)

EV

(A$m)EV/EBITDA

Ore Reserve

(moz)**

EV/Reserve

($/oz)

C1

Costs

($/oz)

C3 Costs

($/oz)

ANG* AngloGold Ashanti 16.96 15.52 17.20 15.30 ▼ -8.6% 5962 653 3368 8677 4.9x 75.6 0 894 1147

ASR* Alacer Gold Corp 2.68 2.48 2.84 2.45 ▼ -9.4% 712 245 63 530 2.4x 5.0 0 932 N/A

BEZ* Besra Gold 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.06 ▼ -12.6% 24 4 43 63 2.9x 0.1 1 956 1357

CCU Cobar Consolidated Resources 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.10 ▼ -6.7% 32 10 18 40 N/M 0.4 0 N/A N/A

EVN Evolution Mining 0.78 0.65 0.83 0.63 ▼ -20.3% 457 49 84 492 2.0x 3.4 0 918 1427

EDV* Endeavour Mining Corp 0.78 0.57 0.79 0.57 ▼ -31.5% 236 82 195 350 3.5x 2.6 NM 1092 N/A

FML Focus Minerals 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 ▲ 50.6% 174 208 11 -24 N/M 0.5 0 1893 N/A

GDO Gold One International 0.14 0.13 0.15 0.13 ▼ -10.4% 185 37 218 366 8.5x 2.7 0 1047 1246

KCN Kingsgate Consolidated 1.64 1.50 1.69 1.40 ▼ -8.3% 228 42 173 360 2.5x 2.7 24 1051 N/A

KRM Kingsrose Mining 0.43 0.32 0.44 0.32 ▼ -27.9% 94 9 6 91 5.5x 0.0 N/M 1029 N/A

LSA Lachlan Star 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.18 ▼ -1.4% 17 3 26 40 N/M 0.1 141 1239 N/A

MML Medusa Mining 1.93 1.59 1.94 1.54 ▼ -19.7% 299 9 0 291 5.4x 0.6 0 296 N/A

MOY Millennium Minerals 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 ▼ -13.8% 57 3 54 108 N/M 0.7 0 826 1139

NCM Newcrest Mining 11.47 10.35 11.49 9.96 ▼ -11.0% 7930 97 3203 11036 6.5x 85.7 1 799 1086

NGF Norton Gold Fields 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 ▼ -11.0% 112 56 45 101 1.6x 1.1 NM 1013 1282

NST Northern Star Resources 0.75 0.68 0.76 0.64 ▼ -11.5% 286 51 12 247 4.5x 0.3 242 646 867

OGC* OceanaGold Corporation 1.69 1.29 1.70 1.16 ▼ -22.9% 378 26 240 592 3.8x 2.9 0 687 N/A

PRU Perseus Mining 0.93 0.78 0.94 0.63 ▼ -17.1% 355 38 0 317 3.2x 3.6 0 1132 N/A

RED Red 5 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.60 -- 0.0% 84 15 23 93 N/M 0.7 14 1081 1481

RMS Ramelius Resources 0.13 0.11 0.14 0.10 ▼ -16.2% 37 43 4 -2 0.0x 0.6 34 1076 N/A

RRL Regis Resources 3.65 3.23 3.69 3.05 ▼ -13.1% 1596 8 0 1588 10.4x 3.0 21 582 N/A

RSG Resolute Mining 0.70 0.72 0.80 0.66 ▲ 5.9% 478 16 16 478 1.7x 4.4 2 831 N/A

SAR Saracen Mineral Holdings 0.16 0.14 0.17 0.14 ▼ -9.8% 83 7 15 91 2.4x 1.1 27 991 N/A

SBM St Barbara 0.65 0.48 0.67 0.46 ▼ -31.8% 234 66 217 385 2.0x 5.7 NM 837 1051

SLR Silver Lake Resources 0.86 0.68 0.88 0.67 ▼ -18.8% 258 21 11 248 5.2x 1.8 34 640 N/A

TAM Tanami Gold 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06 ▼ -9.1% 36 1 44 80 37.6x 0.4 0 1944 N/A

TBR Tribune Resources 1.35 1.35 1.40 1.35 ▼ -0.6% 70 9 14 75 1.5x 0.2 1 N/A N/A

TGZ* Teranga Gold Corp 0.76 0.75 0.76 0.65 ▼ -0.7% 184 49 76 211 0.9x 1.4 0 535 N/A

TRY Troy Resources 1.95 2.21 2.30 1.94 ▲ 16.4% 202 41 0 161 1.6x 0.6 95 804 N/A

UML Unity Mining 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.07 ▼ -7.8% 51 36 2 17 2.0x 0.4 1 922 N/A

Ticker Company Name Open PriceClose

PriceHigh Price Low Price

Weekly

Change

Market

Cap (A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)

EV

(A$m)

Mineral

Resource (moz)

EV/Resource

($/oz)Project Name

C1 Costs

($/oz)

ABU ABM Resources 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02 ▼ -7.8% 76 11 65 3.5 18 Old Pirate 383

AMX Ampella Mining Limited 0.18 0.16 0.19 0.16 ▼ -11.1% 40 25 15 3.3 4 Batie West N/A

BAB Bullabulling Gold Limited 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02 ▼ -23.5% NM 2 2 3.7 1 Bullabulling 1145

IDC Indochine Mining Limited 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.05 ▼ -16.2% 51 4 47 1.8 26 Mt Kare N/A

KGL Kentor Gold Limited - - 0.23 0.22 -- 0.0% 32 2 30 0.1 231 Jervois, Murchison 1105

PGI PanTerra Gold Limited 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.07 ▼ -3.4% 64 2 62 N/A N/A Las Lagunas 335

PIR Papillon Resources Limited 0.92 0.81 0.93 0.76 ▼ -7.4% 271 62 209 4.2 50 Fekola N/A

PXG Phoenix Gold Limited 0.16 0.13 0.16 0.13 ▼ -17.2% 31 20 11 2.5 4 Zuleika and Kunanalling <900

RDR Reed Resources 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.03 ▼ -26.9% 20 19 1 2.5 1 Meekatharra <1000

RNI Resource and Investment NL 0.07 0.07 0.09 0.07 ▼ -3.4% 19 9 10 1.3 8 Grosvenor 1100

SUM Sumatra Copper & Gold plc 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 ▲ 0.1% 61 7 53 13 4 Tembang, Tandai, Sontang 462



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Mergers & Acquisitions

The Northparkes copper-gold mine in NSW, operated by Rio Tinto is for sale according to some analysts (the sale sign appears to have been around for years). Book value is about US$500m. The mine is producing 50,000tpa of copper. OZ Minerals (ASX:OZL) and private equity firms Carlyle Group and KKR could be interested.

Papua New Guinea explorer Niuminco Group (ASX:NIU) has agreed to buy a 19.9% stake in Minemakers (ASX:MAK) spin-off TNT Mines (unlisted). Niuminco aims to buy 21.9 million ordinary shares of TNT at A3¢ per share, for a total consideration of A$657,000. TNT owns all the old hard rock tin and tungsten mines in Northeast Tasmania. The district is Australia’s largest producing one for tin and tungsten, with major activities centred on the Aberfoyle, Storey’s Creek and Anchor mines.

Caravel Minerals (ASX:CVV) has progressed the disposal of its non-core mineral exploration assets in the Meekatharra district in WA. Sale agreements are now in place for most of the older Silver Swan projects, enabling Caravel to focus on its flagship projects. Some projects have been sold to Doray Minerals (ASX:DRM) for A$150k. A couple of others projects have been sold for A$250k (subject to due diligence) and A$5k respectively.

Commissioners Gold (ASX:CGU) has acquired the third gold project in southern Peru in a strategic move to introduce additional high grade ore through the Mollehuaca gold plant – currently being commissioned. The latest acquisition is the Eladium mining concession located 35km east of the Mollehuaca gold plant (140km by road). Eladium lies within the prolific Nazca-Ocoña geological belt, which hosts a number of medium-sized, high-grade operating gold mines.

The proposed merger of Southern Cross Goldfields (ASX:SXG) and Polymetals Mining (ASX:PLY) is a step closer to completion, after the independent expert concluded that the scheme of arrangement is in the best interest of PLY shareholders, in the absence of a superior proposal.

Troy Resources (ASX:TRY) takeover bid of Azimuth Resources (ASX:AZH) has been extended for two weeks. So far TRY has received acceptances from more than 1600 shareholders holding 68.72% of the shares in AZH. The takeover offer remains subject to a minimum acceptance condition of 90%.

lincoln crowne copper gold weekly report 24062013

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