lincoln crowne copper gold weekly 01072013

1st July 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made.

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ASX Gold Sector: Who’s Making Any Money?

Global Economy Fundamentals

Source: Capital IQ, Comex, LME, SHFE, Thomson Reuters, LCC research Note: the SHFE copper price is based on the LME 3-month price and includes CIF premium, tax and duty.

MetalsLast Close Price

(in USD)YTD Change 4-Week Change Week Change Energy and Commodities

Last Close Price

(in USD)YTD Change 4-Week Change Week Change

Gold Comex ($/oz) 1224 ▼ -29% ▼ -13% ▼ -5% Crude Oil ($/barrel) 96.6 ▲ 5.7% ▲ 6.3% ▲ 3%

Silver ($/oz) 19.5 ▼ -42% ▼ -13% ▼ -2% Natural Gas ($/gallon) 3.6 ▲ 12.3% ▼ -10.7% ▼ -6%

Copper LME ($/lb) 3.06 ▼ -17% ▼ -7% ▼ -1% Coal - Central Appalachian 55.2 ▼ -8.9% ▼ -11.0% ▲ 3%

Platinum ($/oz) 1337 ▼ -16% ▼ -9% ▼ -2% Corn ($/bushel) 5.1 ▼ -26.4% ▼ -10.0% ▼ -8%

Palladium ($/oz) 661 ▲ 1% ▼ -12% ▼ -2% Wheat ($/bushel) 6.6 ▼ -11.8% ▼ -6.9% ▼ -7%

Exchange Rates Last Close Price YTD Change 4-Week Change Week Change Global Index Last Close Price YTD Change 4-Week Change Week Change

AUD/USD 0.92 ▼ -13% ▼ -5% ▼ 0% ASX 200 4802.6 ▲ 3% ▼ -2% ▲ 1%

EUR/USD 1.30 ▼ 0% ▲ 0% ▼ -1% Dow Jones Industry Average 14909.6 ▲ 11% ▼ -1% ▲ 1%

GBP/USD 1.52 ▼ -5% ▲ 0% ▼ -1% NYSE 9112.7 ▲ 6% ▼ -2% ▲ 1%

RMB/USD 0.16 ▲ 1% ▼ 0% ▼ 0% FTSE 100 6215.5 ▲ 3% ▼ -6% ▲ 2%

INR/USD 0.0168 ▼ -8% ▼ -5% ▼ 0% Shang Hai Exchange 1979.2 ▼ -13% ▼ -15% ▼ -4%

YEN/USD 0.0101 ▼ -13% ▲ 2% ▼ -2% Nikkei 225 13677.3 ▲ 29% ▲ 0% ▲ 3%

CAD/USD 0.95 ▼ -6% ▼ -2% ▼ -1% CAC 40 3738.9 ▲ 2% ▼ -5% ▲ 2%

ZAR/USD 0.10 ▼ -14% ▲ 1% ▲ 3% German DAX 7959.2 ▲ 4% ▼ -5% ▲ 2%

CHF/USD 1.06 ▼ -2% ▲ 1% ▼ -1% Hang Seng Index 20803.3 ▼ -10% ▼ -7% ▲ 3%

4600

4800

5000

5200

5400

Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13

S&P/ASX 300 Index 3-Month Performance(XJO)

3.50

3.70

3.90

4.10

4.30

4.50

0

20

40

60

80

100


SHFE Copper Daily Price and Stocks

Stocks ('000 t) Price (US$/lb)

1100

1300

1500

1700


USD Gold Price 3-Month Performance(US$/oz)

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0


LME Copper Daily Price and Volume

Volume ('000 lot) Price (US$/lb)

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


LME Copper Daily Price and Stocks


3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

0

50

100

150

200


COMEX Copper Daily Price and Volume


3.40

3.60

3.80

4.00

4.20

4.40

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0


SHFE Copper Daily Price and Volume


55

60

65

70

75

80


3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

COMEX Copper Daily Price and Stocks


0

2000

4000

6000

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10000

Jan 08 Nov 08 Oct 09 Sep 10 Aug 11 Jul 12 Jun 13

S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index(XGD)

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2000

4000

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Jan 08 Nov 08 Oct 09 Sep 10 Aug 11 Jul 12 Jun 13

S&P/ASX Metals and Mining Index(XMM)



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Markets

Continued concerns about the tapering of quantitative easing brought gold down to its lowest level in nearly three years last week, reaching a low of US$1,192/oz. Silver is also near a three-year low below US$19/oz. Copper is close to the strong support level of US$3.00/lb.

Goldman Sachs and China International Capital Corporation were among a handful of banks to lower China’s growth forecast to 7.4%, down from the government’s predictions of 7.5%. The cuts reportedly followed a tightening in central bank liquidity, in an effort to reduce credit growth.

Copper premiums are trading at levels last seen in July 2006 in Rotterdam on the tightening availability of scrap, which has been caused by lower prices for primary material on the LME. Most of the premiums over the LME cash price on an in-warehouse Rotterdam basis are currently at US$110-150/t, up from and up from US$70-100 at the start of the year. Tightening supply of secondary metal has caused fabricators – a majority of whose copper feed often comes from scrap – to look to purchase cathode instead. Consumers have to also outbid warehouses to secure material, because of the shortfall in units caused by the tightness in scrap.

Mining companies in the Northern Territory will be slapped with an additional 1% tax after the passing of the Mining Management Amendment Bill 2013, aimed at fixing environmental damage created by mining activities over time. The Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC) indicated the additional cost was essentially punishing companies that were operating efficiently today for the legacies of other companies in the past. AMEC suggested to use the mining rehabilitation fund model introduced in WA.

Australian Copper Producers

Source: Capital IQ, ASX announcements, LCC research. C1 and C3 costs as reported in last quarter, except for TGS, LCC estimate.

Australian Copper Watch List

Source: Capital IQ, ASX announcements, LCC research. C1 costs and capex as estimated and announced by the respective companies.

Ticker Company NameOpen

Price

Close

Price

High

Price

Low

Price

Weekly

Change

Market

Cap

(A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)

EV

(A$m)EV/EBITDA

Ore

Reserve

(mt Cu)

EV/Ore

Reserv

e (¢/lb)

ProjectC1 Costs

($/lb)

C3 Costs

($/lb)

ABY Aditya Birla Minerals 0.40 0.39 0.42 0.38 ▲ 6.4% 121 100 21 0.7x 0.473 2 Nifty 2.32 N/A

AOH Altona Mining 0.17 0.14 0.17 0.14 ▼ -9.1% 71 23 71 NM 0.061 53 Kylylahti 1.30 2.31

DML Discovery Metals 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.17 ▼ -4.8% 66 17 228 NM 0.403 26 Boseto N/A N/A

HGO Hillgrove Resources 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06 ▼ -4.3% 57 17 90 4.4x 0.125 33 Kanmantoo 3.15 4.42

IVA Inova Resources 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.16 ▲ 17.8% 143 38 106 NM 0.080 60 Osborne 2.85 4.27

OZL OZ Minerals 4.07 4.10 4.23 3.96 ▲ 0.8% 1243 659 584 1.9x 0.748 35 Prominent Hill 1.85 3.23

PNA PanAust 2.20 1.83 2.29 1.91 ▼ -12.2% 1107 104 1162 4.2x 1.127 52 Phu Kham 1.28 1.98

SFR Sandfire Resources 6.05 5.12 6.06 5.05 ▼ -9.3% 797 110 1064 6.4x 0.466 104 DeGrussa N/A N/A

SRQ Straits Resources 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 ▼ -18.4% 15 57 66 5.1x 0.178 17 Tritton 2.37 2.38

TGS Tiger Resources 0.21 0.17 0.22 0.18 ▼ -7.4% 111 19 98 2.9x 0.445 10 Kipoi 1.07 N/A


Price

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Price

High

Price

Low

Price

Market

Cap

(A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)

EV

(A$m)

Mineral

Resource

(mt Cu)

EV/Mineral

Resource

(¢/lb)

ProjectC1 Costs

($/lb)

Capex

(US$m)

AVB Avanco Resources 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06 ▼ -8.1% 62 7 53 0.755 3.2 Antas/Pedra Blanca 1.10 50

FND Finders Resources 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.17 ▲ 0.1% 60 3 68 0.209 15 Wetar 1.07 167

HAV Havilah Resources 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.21 ▼ -6.5% 27 7 23 0.623 1.6 Kalkaroo N/A 80

HCH Hot Chili 0.50 0.49 0.52 0.46 ▼ -3.8% 144 25 117 0.920 5.8 Productora 1.35 600

MMC Marengo Mining 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.05 ▲ 0.0% 31 6 77 0.806 4.3 Yandera n/a 1800

MNC Metminco 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 ▼ -25.1% 23 15 15 6.538 0.1 Los Calatos 1.09 1500

RXM Rex Minerals 0.33 0.34 0.40 0.32 ▲ 14.9% 63 34 26 2.000 0.6 Hillside 1.20 900

ROL Robust Resources 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.21 ▲ 2.9% 21 23 -2 0.077 -1.4 Andash N/A 96

YTC YTC Resources 0.19 0.16 0.19 0.16 ▼ -10.2% 42 5 48 0.091 24 Nymagee N/A N/A

Weekly

Change



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Companies

Rex Minerals ASX:RXM) has boosted the ore reserve at its Hillside project by 50%, to 180mt @ 0.52% Cu, 0.13 g/t Au and 14% Fe for a contained 936,000t of copper, 752,000 ounces of gold and 25.7Mt of iron ore. Metal prices and exchange rate assumptions were US$2.80/lb Cu, US$1,200/oz Au, US$100/t Fe and 0.85 A$:US$. Rex is continuing discussions with copper concentrate, iron ore buyers and possible joint venture partners as potential avenues for financial support.

Considering a cost of US$200-250/oz to cover capital, exploration and royalties, analysis shows that at a US$1,200/oz gold price, a number of mines among the portfolio of ASX-listed producers are free cash flow negative.

Kingsgate Consolidated (ASX:KCN) is changing its mine plan at the Challenger mine to focus on higher grades and is likely to make a A$300m impairment charge against the carrying value of the mine in its FY2013 accounts.

Saracen Mineral Holdings (ASX:SAR) has restructured its hedging programme and reduced the amount of its debt facilities. The average hedged price for FY2014 is A$1,640/oz for 60% of forecast production of 110 to 120koz. SAR has also suspended the expansion of its flagship Carosue Dam plant and reduced its debt facility by $5m to A$45m.

Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU) announced that half-year production from the Edikan mine in Ghana is expected to be slightly below guidance, with all-in costs likely to exceed the forecast US$1,100/oz.

Resolute Mining (ASX:RSG) gold production is expected to beat previous guidance by 15,000oz to reach 430,000oz. Cash costs are expected to be in line with guidance at A$830/oz. RSG is also in the process of reviewing the expansion of the Syama project. The expansion is 34% complete with US$92m spent to date. The review means the expansion completion is delayed by up to 18 months and US$113m of capex are deferred. FY2014 capex is now estimated at US$61m.

Gryphon Minerals (ASX:GRY) has received indicative proposals from a number of international financial institutions to provide project debt as part of the financing package for the development of the Banfora project in Burkina Faso.

Papillon Resources (ASX:PIR) released positive prefeasibility study results for a 300,000oz per annum operation at its Fekola project in Mali. Using a flat US$1,100 /oz gold price, the operation should generate average annual pre-tax cash flows in excess of US$130m. Capital costs amount US$292m, average C1 costs amount US$580/oz and all-in sustaining cash costs of US$725/oz LOM. The mineral resource is estimated at 4.2moz of gold (1g/t Au cut-off).

A change of management and a restructure have been unable to keep long-struggling gold producer Apex Minerals (ASX:AXM) afloat, with administrators and receivers appointed by creditors last week. In February, the company announced the sale of the Youanmi project for A$15 million. But the buyer, Oz Younami Gold, later demanded the price be reduced to A$5 million in the wake of the gold price fall in April. In March, Apex announced a A$50 million deal to sell Wiluna to Ever Prosperity Investment Co, but the sale was called off in May after the proposed buyer sought a lower price.

Australian Gold Watch List

Source: Capital IQ, LCC research. C1 costs and capex as estimated and announced by the respective companies.

Mergers & Acquisitions

A US$4.7 billion bid by the oligarch founders of Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation (ENRC:L) to buy out Kazakhmys has gained the support of its largest shareholder. The bidders - renamed Eurasian Resources - along with the Kazakh government are seeking to acquire the 46% they do not already control, and would offer US$2.65 in cash plus 0.230 Kazakhmys shares per ENRC share.


Price

Close

Price

High

Price

Low

PriceWeekly Change

Market

Cap (A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)

EV

(A$m)

Reserves

(moz)

EV/Reserves

($/oz)Project Name

C1 Costs

($/oz)

Capex

(A$m)

AZM Azumah Resources 0.03 0.03 0.17 0.13 ▼ -18.2% 9 3 6 0.4 14 WA Gold Project, Ghana 802 160

CAS Crusader Resources 0.22 0.23 0.03 0.02 ▲ 1.3% 29 1 28 2 17 Borborema N/A 144

DRM Doray Minerals 0.45 0.40 0.06 0.05 ▼ -18.4% 57 32 25 0.3 100 Andy Well 592 55

GRY Gryphon Minerals 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.10 ▼ -15.6% 52 62 -10 1.1 -10 Banfora 734 208

KGD Kula Gold 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.05 ▼ -15.9% 10 5 5 0.8 6 Woodlark Island 730 160

PGI PanTerra Gold 0.08 0.08 0.17 0.15 ▲ 1.1% 57 2 55 0.6 88 Las Lagunas 335 83

PIR Papillon Resources 0.79 0.67 0.03 0.02 ▼ -9.2% 226 62 164 3.0 55 Fekola 580 292

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After searching for a buyer for more than a year Rio, the third biggest diamond producer in the world, has abandoned any plan to sell or spin out its diamond business, which includes the Argyle mine and a controlling stake in the Diavik operation in Canada.

Global mining giant Rio Tinto is considering a whole or partial sale of its troubled coal unit in Mozambique and has run a contest among several investment banks, known as a beauty parade, to select a financial adviser to assist with the process. The move is a change of direction for the miner, which said in February that it wasn't considering selling despite a US$3 billion write-down on the assets in January. Rio Tinto is seeking to bolster its balance sheet by divesting a range of non-core and poorly performing assets. On the block are its aluminium assets, Canadian iron ore and coalmine stakes and the Northparkes mine in Australia, among others.

Newcrest Mining's stance towards disposing of some of its less-prized assets may be softening in the wake of the gold price fall and its disclosure of big write-downs and production cuts at the start of the month. Australia's largest gold miner has long maintained it is in no rush to sell off any of its smaller mines. Publicly that hasn't changed, despite the company's balance sheet coming under pressure as a result of the write-downs. There is no formal sales process to speak of. However, it is thought potential buyers have approached Newcrest in recent weeks and have not been rebuffed.

Explorer Coppermoly (ASX:COY) has entered into a binding agreement to pay A$5 million to buy back the 72% stakes in the Simuku, Nakru and Talelumas projects in PNG that Barrick Gold earned through spending A$20 million. Under the agreement, Coppermoly will reacquire the project stakes through staged payments totalling $5m over five years. The acquisition is conditional upon Coppermoly raising A$2 million before August 14 to make the first two-staged payments to reacquire a 53% interest off Barrick in the three projects.

Australian Gold Producers

Source: Capital IQ, Goldnerds, LCC research. Note:*These are not primarily listed on ASX, prices, market cap and multiples are based on their primarily listed market quote.


Price

Close

Price

High

Price

Low

Price

Weekly

Change

Market

Cap (A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)

Debt

(A$m)

EV

(A$m)EV/EBITDA

Ore Reserve

(moz)

EV/Reserve

($/oz)

C1 Costs

($/oz)

C3 Costs

($/oz)

ANG* AngloGold Ashanti 16.96 14.51 17.20 15.30 ▼ -8.6% 5574 653 3368 8289 4.6x 75.6 110 894 1147

ASR* Alacer Gold Corp 2.68 2.11 2.84 2.45 ▼ -9.4% 604 245 63 422 2.1x 5.0 85 932 N/A

BEZ* Besra Gold 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.06 ▼ -12.6% 21 4 43 61 2.7x 0.1 555 956 1357

CCU Cobar Consolidated Resources 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.10 ▼ -6.7% 28 10 18 36 N/M 0.4 85 N/A N/A

EVN Evolution Mining 0.78 0.57 0.83 0.63 ▼ -20.3% 404 49 84 439 1.8x 3.4 129 918 1427

EDV* Endeavour Mining Corp 0.78 0.46 0.79 0.57 ▼ -31.5% 191 82 195 304 3.1x 2.6 118 1092 N/A

FML Focus Minerals 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 ▲ 50.6% 128 208 11 -69 N/M 0.5 -135 1893 N/A

GDO Gold One International 0.14 0.12 0.15 0.13 ▼ -10.4% 163 37 218 345 8.2x 2.7 128 1047 1246

KCN Kingsgate Consolidated 1.64 1.27 1.69 1.40 ▼ -8.3% 193 42 173 324 2.4x 2.7 122 1051 N/A

KRM Kingsrose Mining 0.43 0.36 0.44 0.32 ▼ -27.9% 104 9 6 101 4.1x 0.0 NM 1029 N/A

LSA Lachlan Star 0.18 0.13 0.20 0.18 ▼ -1.4% 12 3 26 35 N/M 0.1 256 1239 N/A

MML Medusa Mining 1.93 1.55 1.94 1.54 ▼ -19.7% 292 9 0 283 4.7x 0.6 499 296 N/A

MOY Millennium Minerals 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 ▼ -13.8% 48 3 54 99 N/M 0.7 147 826 1139

NCM Newcrest Mining 11.47 9.87 11.49 9.96 ▼ -11.0% 7563 97 3203 10669 6.1x 85.7 125 799 1086

NGF Norton Gold Fields 0.14 - 0.15 0.13 ▼ -11.0% 112 56 45 101 1.3x 1.1 90 1013 1282

NST Northern Star Resources 0.75 0.59 0.76 0.64 ▼ -11.5% 248 51 12 209 4.3x 0.3 814 646 867

OGC* OceanaGold Corporation 1.69 1.17 1.70 1.16 ▼ -22.9% 344 26 240 557 3.4x 2.9 191 687 N/A

PRU Perseus Mining 0.93 0.44 0.94 0.63 ▼ -17.1% 199 38 0 161 2.7x 3.6 45 1132 N/A

RDR Reed Resources 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.03 ▼ -26.9% 19 19 0 0 1.5x 0.8 0 1000 N/A

RED Red 5 0.62 0.62 0.06 0.03 -- 0.0% 84 15 23 93 N/M 0.8 124 1081 1481

RMS Ramelius Resources 0.13 0.11 0.62 0.60 ▼ -16.2% 37 43 4 -2 NM 0.7 -3 1076 N/A

RRL Regis Resources 3.65 2.89 0.14 0.10 ▼ -13.1% 1428 8 0 1420 9.7x 0.6 2491 582 N/A

RSG Resolute Mining 0.70 0.60 3.69 3.05 ▲ 5.9% 399 16 16 399 1.6x 3.0 131 831 N/A

SAR Saracen Mineral Holdings 0.16 0.12 0.80 0.66 ▼ -9.8% 68 7 15 76 2.1x 4.4 17 991 N/A

SBM St Barbara 0.65 0.45 0.17 0.14 ▼ -31.8% 220 66 217 371 1.7x 1.1 338 837 1051

SLR Silver Lake Resources 0.86 0.60 0.67 0.46 ▼ -18.8% 226 21 11 216 4.1x 5.7 38 640 N/A

TAM Tanami Gold 0.07 0.05 0.88 0.67 ▼ -9.1% 32 1 44 75 36.2x 1.8 42 1944 N/A

TBR Tribune Resources 1.35 - 0.07 0.06 ▼ -0.6% 65 9 14 71 1.5x 0.4 176 N/A N/A

TGZ* Teranga Gold Corp 0.76 0.61 1.40 1.35 ▼ -0.7% 149 49 76 176 0.9x 0.2 767 535 N/A

TRY Troy Resources 1.95 1.53 0.76 0.65 ▲ 16.4% 140 41 0 99 1.7x 1.4 69 804 N/A

UML Unity Mining 0.08 0.07 2.30 1.94 ▼ -7.8% 50 36 2 15 1.7x 0.6 24 922 N/A

…

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lincoln crowne copper gold weekly 01072013

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