lincoln crowne copper gold report 20131125
DESCRIPTION
Lincoln Crowne & Company Gold & Copper Report dated 25 November 2013, covering developments in the Australian gold and copper sectorsTRANSCRIPT
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25th November 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made
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Gold Bulls Are Surrendering Global Economy Fundamentals
Source: Capital IQ, COMEX, LME, SHFE, Thomson Reuters, LCC research. Note: the SHFE copper price is based on the LME 3-month price and includes CIF premium, tax and duty
Precious Metals & EnergyLast Close
Price
YTD
Change
4-Week
Change
Week
ChangeBase Metals
Last Close
Price
YTD
Change
4-Week
Change
Week
Change
Gold (A$/oz) 1,358 ▼ -16% ▼ -4% ▼ -1.3% Copper (A$/lb) 3.46 ▲ 0% ▲ 3% ▲ 2.5%
Gold (US$/oz) 1,243 ▼ -26% ▼ -8% ▼ -3.4% Copper (US$/lb) 3.17 ▼ -12% ▼ -2% ▲ 0.4%
Silver (US$/oz) 19.9 ▼ -34% ▼ -12% ▼ -4.2% Cobalt (US$/lb) 11.79 ▲ 2% ▼ -4% ▼ -5.5%
Platinum (US$/oz) 1,381 ▼ -10% ▼ -5% ▼ -4.0% Molybdenum (US$/lb) 9.66 ▼ -18% ▲ 2% — 0.0%
Palladium (US$/oz) 711 ▲ 1% ▼ -5% ▼ -3.0% Nickel (US$/lb) 6.09 ▼ -21% ▼ -7% ▼ -1.9%
Crude Oil (US$/barrel) 95 ▲ 3% ▼ -3% ▲ 0.4% Lead (US$/lb) 0.93 ▼ -12% ▼ -7% ▼ -0.6%
Gas H.Hub (US$/m btu) 3.68 ▲ 9% ▼ -5% ▼ -0.8% Zinc (US$/lb) 0.84 ▼ -9% ▼ -7% ▼ -0.1%
Uranium (US$/lb) 37 ▼ -16% ▲ 5% ▲ 0.6% Tin (US$/lb) 10.42 ▼ -2% ▲ 1% — 0.0%
Currencies & IndicesLast Close
Price
YTD
Change
4-Week
Change
Week
ChangeGlobal Markets
Last Close
Price
YTD
Change
4-Week
Change
Week
Change
AUD/USD 0.916 ▼ -12% ▼ -4% ▼ -2.1% ASX 200 5,336 ▲ 15% ▼ -1% ▼ -1.2%
RMB/USD 0.164 ▲ 2% ▼ 0% ▼ 0.0% Dow Jones 16,065 ▲ 23% ▲ 3% ▲ 0.6%
CAD/USD 0.950 ▼ -6% ▼ -1% ▼ -0.6% S&P 500 Index 1,805 ▲ 27% ▲ 3% ▲ 0.4%
ZAR/USD 0.099 ▼ -16% ▼ -3% ▲ 0.7% Shang Hai Index 2,196 ▼ -3% ▲ 3% ▲ 2.8%
ASX Ordinary Gold 1,974 ▼ -60% ▼ -21% ▼ -10.6% Hang Seng Index 23,696 ▲ 5% ▲ 4% ▲ 2.9%
TSX Global Gold 161 ▼ -47% ▼ -14% ▼ -7.0% Nikkei 225 15,382 ▲ 48% ▲ 9% ▲ 1.4%
ASX 300 Metals & Mining 3,309 ▼ -9% ▼ -1% ▼ -1.3% FTSE 100 Index 6,674 ▲ 13% ▼ -1% ▼ -0.3%
TSX Global Mining 71 ▼ -26% ▼ -7% ▼ -3.7% Euro STOXX 50 Index 3,056 ▲ 16% ▲ 1% ▲ 0.0%
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
Aug Sep Oct Nov
Gold Price
A$/oz
US$/oz
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
0
100
200
300
400
Aug Sep Oct Nov
LME Copper Price and Volume
Volume ('000 t)
Price (A$/lb)
Price (US$/lb)
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
0
20
40
60
80
Aug Sep Oct Nov
COMEX Copper Price and Stocks
Stocks ('000 t)
Price (US$/lb)
3.50
3.70
3.90
4.10
4.30
4.50
0
20
40
60
80
Aug Sep Oct Nov
SHFE Copper Price and Stocks
Stocks ('000 t) Price (US$/lb)
3.50
3.70
3.90
4.10
4.30
4.50
0
20
40
60
80
100
Aug Sep Oct Nov
SHFE Copper Price and Volume
Volume ('000 lot) Price (US$/lb)
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
0
40
80
120
Aug Sep Oct Nov
COMEX Copper Price and Volume
Volume ('000 lot)
Price (US$/lb)
1500
2000
2500
3000
Aug Sep Oct Nov
S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index(XGO)
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
4.00
0
100
200
300
400
500
Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13
China Copper Imports
Tonnes ('000t)
Copper Price
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
0
200
400
600
Aug Sep Oct Nov
LME Copper Price and Stocks
Stocks ('000 t)Price (A$/lb)Price (US$/lb)
500
750
1000
1250
1500
Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 13 Q3 13
World Gold Demand and Supply
Total Demand (tonnes)
Total Supply (tonnes)
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
LatinAmerica
NorthAmerica
Other Australia SouthAfrica
World
2012 Gold Production Costs
Total production costs
Cash costs
$3.20
$3.21
$3.22
$3.23
$3.24
$3.25
Cash 3 Months Dec 1 Dec 2 Dec 3
LME copper forward curve
Seller
Buyer
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25th November 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made
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Markets & Majors
Standard and Poor’s has updated its method for determining and implementing metals price assumptions by removing the conservative discounts it used to apply to forward curves. Notwithstanding generally weaker metals prices this year, S&P predicts favorable prices for copper and iron ore for 2014-2016, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will continue to suffer from oversupply over the forecast horizon. COPPER: US$3.10/lb for 2014 and 2015. “Demand is stable, and should continue to benefit from growth in Asia and the consequent copper-intensive investments in infrastructure and housing,” they advised. “We observe continued pressure on operating costs for all major producers, as lower grades require higher energy and labor costs, and environmental requirements become increasingly stringent.” GOLD: “the sharp decline in gold prices during 2013 may portend further weakness if U.S. monetary stimulus wans,” S&P noted. Therefore, S&P assumes a US$1,350/oz average gold price in 2014, US$1,300/oz in 2015 and US$1,200/oz in 2014.
Chile's Codelco, the world's top copper producer, has raised the premium for 2014 term shipments to China by 41% according to trading sources, reflecting strong Chinese demand. The proposal to clients in private meetings in Shanghai last week is to increase the premium by US$40 to US$138/t - the highest since 2005.
Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) has announced the results of an independent PEA of its Kamoa copper project in the DRC. Pre-production capital requirement is estimated at US$1.4 billion for the development of a mine and smelter through a two-phased approach. Steady-state production targets 300,000 tpa of blister copper at cash costs of US$1.18/lb. After-tax NPV8% is estimated at US$2.5 billion with an IRR of 15.2%. After-tax NPV12% is US$0.71 billion.
Emerging Copper Producers
Source: Capital IQ, ASX announcements, LCC research. A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.95
Mergers & Acquisitions
LionGold Corp subsidiary Owere Mines in Ghana has entered into an agreement with B&C Gold to process gold bearing waste tailings as part of environmental clean-up arrangements. A minimum of 1 mt of tailings will be purchased from B&C over a three year period – assuming an average gold grade of 3 g/t and recovery of 90%, production of 90,000 oz gold is expected at the 320,000 tpa Konongo plant. LionGold owns a 77% interest in Signature Metals (ASX: SBL), which in turn has a 70% stake in Owere Mines.
Stonewall Resources (ASX: SWJ) and the minority shareholders of Stonewall Mining Pty Ltd have entered into an agreement with Shandong Qixing Iron Tower Co. (SQIT) for the sale of 100% of Stonewall Mining. SWJ and the minority shareholders are to receive US$142 million. SWJ share represents A$0.27 per share. SQIT is a listed entity on Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is part of the Qixing Group, a privately owned large-scale diversified industrial company with group revenue exceeding RMB 15 billion (US$2.3 billion) in 2012.
Viking Ashanti (ASX: VKA) has agreed to merge with emerging coal developer Auminco Mines Ltd (private). Viking will offer to acquire 100% of Auminco by the issue of VKA shares and options. Auminco shareholders will own 59% and Viking shareholders will own 41% of the combined entity. Auminco owns a number of coal and base metals assets in Mongolia.
Copper Producers
Source: Capital IQ, ASX announcements, LCC research. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.95.
Code Company NameOpen
Price
Close
Price
Weekly
Change
Market
Cap (A$m)
52 Week
Range
Cash
(A$m)
EV
(A$m)
AVI Avalon Minerals 0.013 0.022 ▲ 69% 26 2.6 24
AVB Avanco Resources 0.065 0.064 ▼ -2% 87 2.2 85
AZS Azure Minerals 0.031 0.029 ▼ -6% 21 1.1 19
BTR Blackthorn Resources 0.22 0.20 ▼ -9% 33 20.6 12
CDU Cudeco 1.90 1.89 ▼ -1% 386 34.0 353
HAV Havilah Resources 0.26 0.26 — 0% 31 5.8 25
HCH Hot Chili 0.45 0.44 ▼ -2% 153 12.8 140
HIG Highlands Pacific 0.071 0.068 ▼ -4% 58 6.5 52
IRN Indophil Resources 0.14 0.13 ▼ -7% 156 217.8 (61)
KGL KGL Resources 0.074 0.088 ▲ 19% 12 10.6 2
MMC Marengo Mining 0.019 0.018 ▼ -5% 20 7.7 34
MNC Metminco 0.042 0.041 ▼ -2% 72 9.4 62
RXM Rex Minerals 0.48 0.45 ▼ -6% 85 19.9 65
VRX Ventnor Resources - 0.16 — suspended 0.1 N/A
VXR Venturex Resources 0.007 0.006 ▼ -14% 9 3.7 6
FND Finders Resources 0.20 0.21 ▲ 8% 107 10.6 97
TGS Tiger Resources 0.33 0.32 ▼ -3% 244 10.0 257
YTC YTC Resources 0.24 0.23 ▼ -4% 60 14.7 91
Code Company NameOpen
Price
Close
Price
Weekly
Change
Market
Cap (A$m)
52 Week
Range
Cash
(A$m)
EV
(A$m)
EV/
EBITDA
ABY Aditya Birla Minerals 0.34 0.34 ▼ -1% 105 102 4 0.1x
AOH Altona Mining 0.14 0.15 ▲ 7% 80 26 76 5.2x
DML Discovery Metals 0.068 0.068 — 0% 38 21 179 NM
HGO Hillgrove Resources 0.088 0.086 ▼ -2% 101 17 133 3.8x
IVA Inova Resources 0.22 0.22 ▼ -2% 158 24 134 NM
OZL OZ Minerals 3.36 3.28 ▼ -2% 994 433 561 4.3x
PEM Perilya 0.35 0.34 ▼ -1% 261 92 367 6.0x
PNA PanAust 1.77 1.56 ▼ -12% 930 91 1,012 3.3x
SFR Sandfire Resources 5.85 6.05 ▲ 3% 942 101 1,111 5.7x
SRQ Straits Resources 0.009 0.008 ▼ -11% 9 29 102 NM
TGS Tiger Resources 0.33 0.32 ▼ -5% 244 10 257 4.2x
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25th November 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made
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Emerging Gold Producers
Source: Capital IQ, LCC research. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.95 and A$/C$ of 1.00
ASX-listed Company News
Finders Resources (ASX: FND) has revised the BFS for its 95% owned Wetar copper project. At a US$7,000/t copper price, project EBITDA for the first full year of production should exceed US$132m, resulting in a 1-year capital costs payback. LOM copper production amounts to 155,000 tonnes over a 10.5 year mine life. Capital costs are estimated at US$132.4 million and operating costs at US$0.88/lb once operating full capacity or US$1.05/lb LOM.
Hillgrove Resources (ASX: HGO) has produced 4,306 tonnes of copper in concentrate for the quarter ending 31 October 2013. C1 costs were US$2.80/lb and C3 costs were US$3.40/lb.
Troy Resources (ASX, TSX: TRY) has entered into an agreement to acquire a 3.2 MW grinding mill, electrics and ancillary equipment for the West Omai gold project in Guyana. The mill acquisition enables TRY to finalise the detailed engineering of the remainder of the processing facility. The design concept is based on a staged development of the project to minimise risk and capital requirements, whilst retaining flexibility to increase processing rates over time. This initial stage would (subject to favourable study results) see throughput in excess of 600,000tpa. TRY expects to complete the project Scoping Study in December and Pre-Feasibility Study in the first half of calendar 2014.
Gold Producers
Source: Capital IQ, LCC research. Assumption: A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.95. June quarter data in italics, September quarter data in regular font
Code Company NameOpen
Price
Close
Price
Weekly
Change
Market Cap
(A$m)
52 Week
Range
Cash
(A$m)
EV
(A$m)
ABU ABM Resources 0.024 0.024 0% 79 2.8 76
ALK Alkane Resources 0.38 0.37 -3% 138 73 65
AZM Azumah Resources 0.026 0.024 -8% 8 3.1 5
BAB Bullabulling Gold 0.043 0.044 2% 15 5.3 10
CHZ Chesser Resources 0.10 0.13 30% 29 2.2 26
CVG Convergent Minerals 0.010 0.015 50% 5 0.5 5
CAS Crusader Resources 0.32 0.33 3% 42 3.0 44
GCY Gascoyne Resources 0.18 0.16 -9% 25 2.1 23
GRY Gryphon Minerals 0.14 0.13 -7% 52 46.8 5
IGO Independence Group 3.42 3.24 -5% 756 43.8 777
IDC Indochine Mining 0.065 0.059 -9% 62 0.4 61
IAU Intrepid Mines 0.27 0.28 4% 156 92 64
KGD Kula Gold 0.10 0.10 -5% 12 1.7 10
MSR Manas Resources 0.031 0.031 0% 9 3.0 6
MLX Metals X 0.16 0.17 6% 273 59.7 213
MYG Mutiny Gold 0.036 0.034 -6% 18 2.0 22
OBS Orbis Gold 0.33 0.32 -3% 70 8.2 68
PAN Panoramic Resources 0.27 0.24 -11% 69 45 24
PIR Papillon Resources 1.12 1.10 -2% 372 46.1 326
PVM PMI Gold 0.29 0.27 -9% 110 100.5 9
PXG Phoenix Gold 0.17 0.16 -6% 38 10.7 28
RNI Resource and Investment 0.060 0.054 -10% 16 3.9 12
ROL Robust Resources 0.44 0.37 -16% 38 7.1 36
SIH Sihayo Gold 0.028 0.025 -11% 22 0.1 23
SXG Southern Cross Goldfields 0.015 0.014 -7% 12 5.1 14
SUM Sumatra Copper & Gold 0.11 0.10 -11% 41 9.4 31
Code Company NameOpen
Price
Close
Price
Weekly
Change
Market
Cap
(A$m)
52 Week
Range
Cash
(A$m)
EV
(A$m)
EV/
EBITDA
AQG Alacer Gold 2.36 2.13 ▼ -10% 597 234 363 1.6x
AGD Austral Gold 0.17 0.12 ▼ -29% 20 13 65 8.1x
BDR Beadell Resources 0.90 0.83 ▼ -8% 656 35 723 66.7x
BEZ Besra Gold 0.030 0.027 ▼ -10% 11 2 67 19.8x
CTO Citigold Corporation 0.046 0.042 ▼ -9% 57 1 56 NM
CRK Crocodile Gold Corp 0.14 0.12 ▼ -14% 49 28 27 0.5x
DRM Doray Minerals 0.67 0.64 ▼ -4% 91 18 128 NM
DRA Dragon Mining 0.19 0.18 ▼ -5% 16 4 12 54.5x
EVN Evolution Mining 0.76 0.64 ▼ -15% 454 4 577 3.0x
EVR Endeavour Mining Corp 0.62 0.60 ▼ -4% 244 119 425 NM
FML Focus Minerals 0.013 0.012 ▼ -8% 110 90 36 NM
GDO Gold One International 0.21 0.17 ▼ -21% 235 30 434 6.5x
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated 1.39 1.20 ▼ -13% 183 44 325 3.2x
KRM Kingsrose Mining 0.40 0.37 ▼ -6% 124 8 116 NM
LSA Lachlan Star 0.27 0.20 ▼ -28% 29 3 52 NM
MML Medusa Mining 1.88 1.69 ▼ -10% 335 6 336 4.7x
MLX Metals X 0.16 0.17 ▲ 6% 273 60 213 22.2x
MOY Millennium Minerals 0.24 0.20 ▼ -17% 44 10 76 2.7x
MLI Mintails 0.07 0.075 ▲ 7% 12 0 13 NM
NCM Newcrest Mining 9.61 8.50 ▼ -12% 6,508 69 10,649 9.5x
NGF Norton Gold Fields 0.13 0.13 — 0% 116 42 189 7.2x
NST Northern Star Resources 0.78 0.69 ▼ -11% 296 48 259 3.4x
OGC OceanaGold Corporation 1.94 1.65 ▼ -15% 493 15 724 3.1x
PNA PanAust 1.77 1.56 ▼ -12% 930 91 1,012 3.3x
PGI PanTerra Gold 0.052 0.046 ▼ -12% 35 6 77 NM
PRU Perseus Mining 0.39 0.29 ▼ -26% 133 27 106 2.4x
PPM Primero Mining Corp 5.90 5.60 ▼ -5% 634 126 543 NM
RMS Ramelius Resources 0.11 0.11 ▼ -5% 38 33 9 0.4x
RRL Regis Resources 3.32 3.07 ▼ -8% 1,529 93 1,436 5.9x
RSG Resolute Mining 0.59 0.51 ▼ -13% 327 59 362 1.9x
SAR Saracen Mineral Holdings 0.23 0.21 ▼ -7% 125 25 122 2.2x
SBM St Barbara 0.37 0.29 ▼ -22% 139 106 364 NM
SLR Silver Lake Resources 0.68 0.56 ▼ -17% 245 26 239 NM
TBR Tribune Resources 3.10 2.80 ▼ -10% 141 8 153 2.4x
TGZ Teranga Gold Corp 0.59 0.56 ▼ -4% 181 36 225 NM
TRY Troy Resources 1.28 1.13 ▼ -12% 189 27 168 2.6x
UML Unity Mining 0.059 0.050 ▼ -15% 35 20 15 1.2x
VGO Vantage Goldfields 0.045 0.045 — 0% 11 1 10 3.5x
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25th November 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made
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AISC / C3 costs
C1 costs
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Second Quartile
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Third Quartile
C1 < US$1041/oz
Australian Gold Producers Cost Curve as at 30 September 2013
Mines closed