lincoln crowne copper gold report 20131125

4

Click here to load reader

Upload: lincoln-crowne-company

Post on 16-May-2015

94 views

Category:

Business


1 download

DESCRIPTION

Lincoln Crowne & Company Gold & Copper Report dated 25 November 2013, covering developments in the Australian gold and copper sectors

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Lincoln crowne copper gold report 20131125

25th November 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made

. Page 1 / 4

WE

EK

LY

Au

stra

lian

Co

pp

er G

old

Rep

ort

Gold Bulls Are Surrendering Global Economy Fundamentals

Source: Capital IQ, COMEX, LME, SHFE, Thomson Reuters, LCC research. Note: the SHFE copper price is based on the LME 3-month price and includes CIF premium, tax and duty

Precious Metals & EnergyLast Close

Price

YTD

Change

4-Week

Change

Week

ChangeBase Metals

Last Close

Price

YTD

Change

4-Week

Change

Week

Change

Gold (A$/oz) 1,358 ▼ -16% ▼ -4% ▼ -1.3% Copper (A$/lb) 3.46 ▲ 0% ▲ 3% ▲ 2.5%

Gold (US$/oz) 1,243 ▼ -26% ▼ -8% ▼ -3.4% Copper (US$/lb) 3.17 ▼ -12% ▼ -2% ▲ 0.4%

Silver (US$/oz) 19.9 ▼ -34% ▼ -12% ▼ -4.2% Cobalt (US$/lb) 11.79 ▲ 2% ▼ -4% ▼ -5.5%

Platinum (US$/oz) 1,381 ▼ -10% ▼ -5% ▼ -4.0% Molybdenum (US$/lb) 9.66 ▼ -18% ▲ 2% — 0.0%

Palladium (US$/oz) 711 ▲ 1% ▼ -5% ▼ -3.0% Nickel (US$/lb) 6.09 ▼ -21% ▼ -7% ▼ -1.9%

Crude Oil (US$/barrel) 95 ▲ 3% ▼ -3% ▲ 0.4% Lead (US$/lb) 0.93 ▼ -12% ▼ -7% ▼ -0.6%

Gas H.Hub (US$/m btu) 3.68 ▲ 9% ▼ -5% ▼ -0.8% Zinc (US$/lb) 0.84 ▼ -9% ▼ -7% ▼ -0.1%

Uranium (US$/lb) 37 ▼ -16% ▲ 5% ▲ 0.6% Tin (US$/lb) 10.42 ▼ -2% ▲ 1% — 0.0%

Currencies & IndicesLast Close

Price

YTD

Change

4-Week

Change

Week

ChangeGlobal Markets

Last Close

Price

YTD

Change

4-Week

Change

Week

Change

AUD/USD 0.916 ▼ -12% ▼ -4% ▼ -2.1% ASX 200 5,336 ▲ 15% ▼ -1% ▼ -1.2%

RMB/USD 0.164 ▲ 2% ▼ 0% ▼ 0.0% Dow Jones 16,065 ▲ 23% ▲ 3% ▲ 0.6%

CAD/USD 0.950 ▼ -6% ▼ -1% ▼ -0.6% S&P 500 Index 1,805 ▲ 27% ▲ 3% ▲ 0.4%

ZAR/USD 0.099 ▼ -16% ▼ -3% ▲ 0.7% Shang Hai Index 2,196 ▼ -3% ▲ 3% ▲ 2.8%

ASX Ordinary Gold 1,974 ▼ -60% ▼ -21% ▼ -10.6% Hang Seng Index 23,696 ▲ 5% ▲ 4% ▲ 2.9%

TSX Global Gold 161 ▼ -47% ▼ -14% ▼ -7.0% Nikkei 225 15,382 ▲ 48% ▲ 9% ▲ 1.4%

ASX 300 Metals & Mining 3,309 ▼ -9% ▼ -1% ▼ -1.3% FTSE 100 Index 6,674 ▲ 13% ▼ -1% ▼ -0.3%

TSX Global Mining 71 ▼ -26% ▼ -7% ▼ -3.7% Euro STOXX 50 Index 3,056 ▲ 16% ▲ 1% ▲ 0.0%

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

Aug Sep Oct Nov

Gold Price

A$/oz

US$/oz

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

0

100

200

300

400

Aug Sep Oct Nov

LME Copper Price and Volume

Volume ('000 t)

Price (A$/lb)

Price (US$/lb)

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

0

20

40

60

80

Aug Sep Oct Nov

COMEX Copper Price and Stocks

Stocks ('000 t)

Price (US$/lb)

3.50

3.70

3.90

4.10

4.30

4.50

0

20

40

60

80

Aug Sep Oct Nov

SHFE Copper Price and Stocks

Stocks ('000 t) Price (US$/lb)

3.50

3.70

3.90

4.10

4.30

4.50

0

20

40

60

80

100

Aug Sep Oct Nov

SHFE Copper Price and Volume

Volume ('000 lot) Price (US$/lb)

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

0

40

80

120

Aug Sep Oct Nov

COMEX Copper Price and Volume

Volume ('000 lot)

Price (US$/lb)

1500

2000

2500

3000

Aug Sep Oct Nov

S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index(XGO)

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

4.00

0

100

200

300

400

500

Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13

China Copper Imports

Tonnes ('000t)

Copper Price

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

0

200

400

600

Aug Sep Oct Nov

LME Copper Price and Stocks

Stocks ('000 t)Price (A$/lb)Price (US$/lb)

500

750

1000

1250

1500

Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 13 Q3 13

World Gold Demand and Supply

Total Demand (tonnes)

Total Supply (tonnes)

$0

$250

$500

$750

$1,000

$1,250

LatinAmerica

NorthAmerica

Other Australia SouthAfrica

World

2012 Gold Production Costs

Total production costs

Cash costs

$3.20

$3.21

$3.22

$3.23

$3.24

$3.25

Cash 3 Months Dec 1 Dec 2 Dec 3

LME copper forward curve

Seller

Buyer

Page 2: Lincoln crowne copper gold report 20131125

25th November 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made

. Page 2 / 4

WE

EK

LY

Au

stra

lian

Co

pp

er G

old

Rep

ort

Markets & Majors

Standard and Poor’s has updated its method for determining and implementing metals price assumptions by removing the conservative discounts it used to apply to forward curves. Notwithstanding generally weaker metals prices this year, S&P predicts favorable prices for copper and iron ore for 2014-2016, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will continue to suffer from oversupply over the forecast horizon. COPPER: US$3.10/lb for 2014 and 2015. “Demand is stable, and should continue to benefit from growth in Asia and the consequent copper-intensive investments in infrastructure and housing,” they advised. “We observe continued pressure on operating costs for all major producers, as lower grades require higher energy and labor costs, and environmental requirements become increasingly stringent.” GOLD: “the sharp decline in gold prices during 2013 may portend further weakness if U.S. monetary stimulus wans,” S&P noted. Therefore, S&P assumes a US$1,350/oz average gold price in 2014, US$1,300/oz in 2015 and US$1,200/oz in 2014.

Chile's Codelco, the world's top copper producer, has raised the premium for 2014 term shipments to China by 41% according to trading sources, reflecting strong Chinese demand. The proposal to clients in private meetings in Shanghai last week is to increase the premium by US$40 to US$138/t - the highest since 2005.

Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) has announced the results of an independent PEA of its Kamoa copper project in the DRC. Pre-production capital requirement is estimated at US$1.4 billion for the development of a mine and smelter through a two-phased approach. Steady-state production targets 300,000 tpa of blister copper at cash costs of US$1.18/lb. After-tax NPV8% is estimated at US$2.5 billion with an IRR of 15.2%. After-tax NPV12% is US$0.71 billion.

Emerging Copper Producers

Source: Capital IQ, ASX announcements, LCC research. A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.95

Mergers & Acquisitions

LionGold Corp subsidiary Owere Mines in Ghana has entered into an agreement with B&C Gold to process gold bearing waste tailings as part of environmental clean-up arrangements. A minimum of 1 mt of tailings will be purchased from B&C over a three year period – assuming an average gold grade of 3 g/t and recovery of 90%, production of 90,000 oz gold is expected at the 320,000 tpa Konongo plant. LionGold owns a 77% interest in Signature Metals (ASX: SBL), which in turn has a 70% stake in Owere Mines.

Stonewall Resources (ASX: SWJ) and the minority shareholders of Stonewall Mining Pty Ltd have entered into an agreement with Shandong Qixing Iron Tower Co. (SQIT) for the sale of 100% of Stonewall Mining. SWJ and the minority shareholders are to receive US$142 million. SWJ share represents A$0.27 per share. SQIT is a listed entity on Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is part of the Qixing Group, a privately owned large-scale diversified industrial company with group revenue exceeding RMB 15 billion (US$2.3 billion) in 2012.

Viking Ashanti (ASX: VKA) has agreed to merge with emerging coal developer Auminco Mines Ltd (private). Viking will offer to acquire 100% of Auminco by the issue of VKA shares and options. Auminco shareholders will own 59% and Viking shareholders will own 41% of the combined entity. Auminco owns a number of coal and base metals assets in Mongolia.

Copper Producers

Source: Capital IQ, ASX announcements, LCC research. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.95.

Code Company NameOpen

Price

Close

Price

Weekly

Change

Market

Cap (A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)

EV

(A$m)

AVI Avalon Minerals 0.013 0.022 ▲ 69% 26 2.6 24

AVB Avanco Resources 0.065 0.064 ▼ -2% 87 2.2 85

AZS Azure Minerals 0.031 0.029 ▼ -6% 21 1.1 19

BTR Blackthorn Resources 0.22 0.20 ▼ -9% 33 20.6 12

CDU Cudeco 1.90 1.89 ▼ -1% 386 34.0 353

HAV Havilah Resources 0.26 0.26 — 0% 31 5.8 25

HCH Hot Chili 0.45 0.44 ▼ -2% 153 12.8 140

HIG Highlands Pacific 0.071 0.068 ▼ -4% 58 6.5 52

IRN Indophil Resources 0.14 0.13 ▼ -7% 156 217.8 (61)

KGL KGL Resources 0.074 0.088 ▲ 19% 12 10.6 2

MMC Marengo Mining 0.019 0.018 ▼ -5% 20 7.7 34

MNC Metminco 0.042 0.041 ▼ -2% 72 9.4 62

RXM Rex Minerals 0.48 0.45 ▼ -6% 85 19.9 65

VRX Ventnor Resources - 0.16 — suspended 0.1 N/A

VXR Venturex Resources 0.007 0.006 ▼ -14% 9 3.7 6

FND Finders Resources 0.20 0.21 ▲ 8% 107 10.6 97

TGS Tiger Resources 0.33 0.32 ▼ -3% 244 10.0 257

YTC YTC Resources 0.24 0.23 ▼ -4% 60 14.7 91

Code Company NameOpen

Price

Close

Price

Weekly

Change

Market

Cap (A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)

EV

(A$m)

EV/

EBITDA

ABY Aditya Birla Minerals 0.34 0.34 ▼ -1% 105 102 4 0.1x

AOH Altona Mining 0.14 0.15 ▲ 7% 80 26 76 5.2x

DML Discovery Metals 0.068 0.068 — 0% 38 21 179 NM

HGO Hillgrove Resources 0.088 0.086 ▼ -2% 101 17 133 3.8x

IVA Inova Resources 0.22 0.22 ▼ -2% 158 24 134 NM

OZL OZ Minerals 3.36 3.28 ▼ -2% 994 433 561 4.3x

PEM Perilya 0.35 0.34 ▼ -1% 261 92 367 6.0x

PNA PanAust 1.77 1.56 ▼ -12% 930 91 1,012 3.3x

SFR Sandfire Resources 5.85 6.05 ▲ 3% 942 101 1,111 5.7x

SRQ Straits Resources 0.009 0.008 ▼ -11% 9 29 102 NM

TGS Tiger Resources 0.33 0.32 ▼ -5% 244 10 257 4.2x

Page 3: Lincoln crowne copper gold report 20131125

25th November 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made

. Page 3 / 4

WE

EK

LY

Au

stra

lian

Co

pp

er G

old

Rep

ort

Emerging Gold Producers

Source: Capital IQ, LCC research. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.95 and A$/C$ of 1.00

ASX-listed Company News

Finders Resources (ASX: FND) has revised the BFS for its 95% owned Wetar copper project. At a US$7,000/t copper price, project EBITDA for the first full year of production should exceed US$132m, resulting in a 1-year capital costs payback. LOM copper production amounts to 155,000 tonnes over a 10.5 year mine life. Capital costs are estimated at US$132.4 million and operating costs at US$0.88/lb once operating full capacity or US$1.05/lb LOM.

Hillgrove Resources (ASX: HGO) has produced 4,306 tonnes of copper in concentrate for the quarter ending 31 October 2013. C1 costs were US$2.80/lb and C3 costs were US$3.40/lb.

Troy Resources (ASX, TSX: TRY) has entered into an agreement to acquire a 3.2 MW grinding mill, electrics and ancillary equipment for the West Omai gold project in Guyana. The mill acquisition enables TRY to finalise the detailed engineering of the remainder of the processing facility. The design concept is based on a staged development of the project to minimise risk and capital requirements, whilst retaining flexibility to increase processing rates over time. This initial stage would (subject to favourable study results) see throughput in excess of 600,000tpa. TRY expects to complete the project Scoping Study in December and Pre-Feasibility Study in the first half of calendar 2014.

Gold Producers

Source: Capital IQ, LCC research. Assumption: A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.95. June quarter data in italics, September quarter data in regular font

Code Company NameOpen

Price

Close

Price

Weekly

Change

Market Cap

(A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)

EV

(A$m)

ABU ABM Resources 0.024 0.024 0% 79 2.8 76

ALK Alkane Resources 0.38 0.37 -3% 138 73 65

AZM Azumah Resources 0.026 0.024 -8% 8 3.1 5

BAB Bullabulling Gold 0.043 0.044 2% 15 5.3 10

CHZ Chesser Resources 0.10 0.13 30% 29 2.2 26

CVG Convergent Minerals 0.010 0.015 50% 5 0.5 5

CAS Crusader Resources 0.32 0.33 3% 42 3.0 44

GCY Gascoyne Resources 0.18 0.16 -9% 25 2.1 23

GRY Gryphon Minerals 0.14 0.13 -7% 52 46.8 5

IGO Independence Group 3.42 3.24 -5% 756 43.8 777

IDC Indochine Mining 0.065 0.059 -9% 62 0.4 61

IAU Intrepid Mines 0.27 0.28 4% 156 92 64

KGD Kula Gold 0.10 0.10 -5% 12 1.7 10

MSR Manas Resources 0.031 0.031 0% 9 3.0 6

MLX Metals X 0.16 0.17 6% 273 59.7 213

MYG Mutiny Gold 0.036 0.034 -6% 18 2.0 22

OBS Orbis Gold 0.33 0.32 -3% 70 8.2 68

PAN Panoramic Resources 0.27 0.24 -11% 69 45 24

PIR Papillon Resources 1.12 1.10 -2% 372 46.1 326

PVM PMI Gold 0.29 0.27 -9% 110 100.5 9

PXG Phoenix Gold 0.17 0.16 -6% 38 10.7 28

RNI Resource and Investment 0.060 0.054 -10% 16 3.9 12

ROL Robust Resources 0.44 0.37 -16% 38 7.1 36

SIH Sihayo Gold 0.028 0.025 -11% 22 0.1 23

SXG Southern Cross Goldfields 0.015 0.014 -7% 12 5.1 14

SUM Sumatra Copper & Gold 0.11 0.10 -11% 41 9.4 31

Code Company NameOpen

Price

Close

Price

Weekly

Change

Market

Cap

(A$m)

52 Week

Range

Cash

(A$m)

EV

(A$m)

EV/

EBITDA

AQG Alacer Gold 2.36 2.13 ▼ -10% 597 234 363 1.6x

AGD Austral Gold 0.17 0.12 ▼ -29% 20 13 65 8.1x

BDR Beadell Resources 0.90 0.83 ▼ -8% 656 35 723 66.7x

BEZ Besra Gold 0.030 0.027 ▼ -10% 11 2 67 19.8x

CTO Citigold Corporation 0.046 0.042 ▼ -9% 57 1 56 NM

CRK Crocodile Gold Corp 0.14 0.12 ▼ -14% 49 28 27 0.5x

DRM Doray Minerals 0.67 0.64 ▼ -4% 91 18 128 NM

DRA Dragon Mining 0.19 0.18 ▼ -5% 16 4 12 54.5x

EVN Evolution Mining 0.76 0.64 ▼ -15% 454 4 577 3.0x

EVR Endeavour Mining Corp 0.62 0.60 ▼ -4% 244 119 425 NM

FML Focus Minerals 0.013 0.012 ▼ -8% 110 90 36 NM

GDO Gold One International 0.21 0.17 ▼ -21% 235 30 434 6.5x

KCN Kingsgate Consolidated 1.39 1.20 ▼ -13% 183 44 325 3.2x

KRM Kingsrose Mining 0.40 0.37 ▼ -6% 124 8 116 NM

LSA Lachlan Star 0.27 0.20 ▼ -28% 29 3 52 NM

MML Medusa Mining 1.88 1.69 ▼ -10% 335 6 336 4.7x

MLX Metals X 0.16 0.17 ▲ 6% 273 60 213 22.2x

MOY Millennium Minerals 0.24 0.20 ▼ -17% 44 10 76 2.7x

MLI Mintails 0.07 0.075 ▲ 7% 12 0 13 NM

NCM Newcrest Mining 9.61 8.50 ▼ -12% 6,508 69 10,649 9.5x

NGF Norton Gold Fields 0.13 0.13 — 0% 116 42 189 7.2x

NST Northern Star Resources 0.78 0.69 ▼ -11% 296 48 259 3.4x

OGC OceanaGold Corporation 1.94 1.65 ▼ -15% 493 15 724 3.1x

PNA PanAust 1.77 1.56 ▼ -12% 930 91 1,012 3.3x

PGI PanTerra Gold 0.052 0.046 ▼ -12% 35 6 77 NM

PRU Perseus Mining 0.39 0.29 ▼ -26% 133 27 106 2.4x

PPM Primero Mining Corp 5.90 5.60 ▼ -5% 634 126 543 NM

RMS Ramelius Resources 0.11 0.11 ▼ -5% 38 33 9 0.4x

RRL Regis Resources 3.32 3.07 ▼ -8% 1,529 93 1,436 5.9x

RSG Resolute Mining 0.59 0.51 ▼ -13% 327 59 362 1.9x

SAR Saracen Mineral Holdings 0.23 0.21 ▼ -7% 125 25 122 2.2x

SBM St Barbara 0.37 0.29 ▼ -22% 139 106 364 NM

SLR Silver Lake Resources 0.68 0.56 ▼ -17% 245 26 239 NM

TBR Tribune Resources 3.10 2.80 ▼ -10% 141 8 153 2.4x

TGZ Teranga Gold Corp 0.59 0.56 ▼ -4% 181 36 225 NM

TRY Troy Resources 1.28 1.13 ▼ -12% 189 27 168 2.6x

UML Unity Mining 0.059 0.050 ▼ -15% 35 20 15 1.2x

VGO Vantage Goldfields 0.045 0.045 — 0% 11 1 10 3.5x

Page 4: Lincoln crowne copper gold report 20131125

25th November 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made

. Page 4 / 4

WE

EK

LY

Au

stra

lian

Co

pp

er G

old

Rep

ort

617

696

779

712

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

PP

M

OG

C

NC

M -

Cad

ia

MM

L

AQ

G

AB

X -

Cow

al

BD

R

DR

M

AG

D

CT

O

GF

I - A

gnew

NS

T

AB

X -

Yilg

arn

S

SA

R

AB

X -

Kan

owna

Kal

goor

lie

PN

A

RR

L

NC

M -

Gos

owon

g

EV

N

TR

Y

TG

Z

GF

I - S

t Ive

s

NC

M -

Lih

ir

EV

R

MO

Y

NC

M -

Tel

fer

AB

X -

Plu

toni

c

RS

G

CR

K

UM

L

NG

F

BE

Z

DR

A

VG

O

NE

M -

Bod

ding

ton

KC

N

GD

O

SB

M

SLR

TB

R

LSA

NC

M -

Hid

den

RM

S

PR

U

MLX

NC

M -

Bon

ikro

MLI

PG

I

KR

M

FM

L

An

nu

alis

ed G

old

Pro

du

ctio

n (

koz)

C1 C

ost U

S$/o

z

Production

Price Average

AISC / C3 costs

C1 costs

First Quartile

C1 < US$612/oz

Second Quartile

C1 < US$848/oz

Third Quartile

C1 < US$1041/oz

Australian Gold Producers Cost Curve as at 30 September 2013

Mines closed