limpopo basin impact pathways workshop
DESCRIPTION
Limpopo Basin Impact Pathways Workshop. 15 – 17 November 2007 Birchwood Hotel, Johannesburg Boru Douthwaite, CPWF Impact Project CIAT, Cali, Colombia. Impact Pathways Matter. Why make Impact Pathways explicit?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Limpopo Basin Impact Pathways Workshop
15 – 17 November 2007
Birchwood Hotel, JohannesburgBoru Douthwaite, CPWF Impact Project
CIAT, Cali, Colombia
Impact Pathways Matter
Why make Impact Pathways explicit?
• People plan and implement projects (programs, countries …) on the basis of their change models - their implicit theories about how the world works, i.e., impact pathways
• If you can improve the impact pathways (IPs) you can improve the practice, making impact more likely
• IPs show a project’s rationale and networks– Help communicate what the project is doing
• More fundable
– Help with planning, including MTPs– Provide a basis for evaluation
• Starting point for evaluation is a good model of what you think will happen
• Provide information to support programmatic integration• Provides impact hypotheses for ex-post impact assessment
PIPA makes Impact Pathways explicit
It does so by developing two perspectives ….
1. A problem tree that shows a linear logic linking project outputs to project goal; and
2. Network maps that show the evolving relationships necessary to achieve the goal
Impact pathways – a more complete picture….
<-----the full picture---->
>---------------Actor-orientated perspective---------
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Network maps
Foundations
• Adaptation of concepts from Program Evaluation– Renger and Titcomb (2002) – problem trees– Chen (2005) – program theory– Mayne (2004) - performance stories
• Innovation histories – Douthwaite and Ashby, 2005
• Social network analysis– Cross and Parker, 2004
Workshop Road Map
1. Problem Tree
2. Outputs
3. Vis ion
7. Outcom es logic m odel
4. "Now"network m ap
W hat the pro j ect w ill produce
W here pro j ect is go ing - Goal
Necessaryrelationshipsin placeto producethe OUTPUTS
Helps understand pro ject rationaleand w hat needs to change
5. "Future"network m apNecessaryrelationshipsto achievethe VI S I ON
Ide
nti
fyin
g a
lin
ea
r lo
gic
lin
kin
gp
roje
ct o
utp
uts
to
pro
ject
go
al
Inte
gra
tio
n o
fb
oth
vie
ws
6. ProjectS caling
S trategy
Ide
nti
fyin
g t
he
evo
lvin
gn
etw
ork
of
act
ors
ne
ed
ed
to a
chie
ve t
he
vis
ion
The outcomes the pro j ect w ill help achieve, how , and w ith w hom
Pro
du
cts
pro
du
ced
in
th
e W
ork
sho
pP
rod
uct
s p
rod
uce
da
fte
r th
e w
ork
sho
p
M i lestonesandprogressm arkers
Program - levelnetwork m aps
I m pactlogic m odel
Technologyextrapolationdom ain m aps
I m pactnarrative
Outputs produced after the workshop
Outcom etargets andm ilestones
Program - levelnetwork m aps
I m pactlogic m odel
Technologyextrapolationdom ain m aps
I m pactnarrative
Use of PIPA OutputsUse of PIPA outputs PIPA outputs used
Ex-ante impact assessment
Essential:Impact logic model, output targets, impact narrativeOptional:Extrapolation domain analysis, scenario analysis
Impact Pathways Analysis Essential:Outcomes logic model, output targets and milestones, visionOptional:Impact logic model
Laying the foundation for ex-post impact assessment
Essential:Outcomes and impact logic modelsOptional:Impact pathways analysis (that updates project impact hypotheses)Extrapolation domain analysis
Expectations
D epressedLivelihoods
LimitedReservoir
Productivity
UnderusedFisheries
ProductionC apacity
Bad HarvestingStrategies
Uncooperativeattitudes of fishers
w ith respect tomanagement of
fisheries resources
Lack of know ledgeof options ofenhancementtechnologies
Processinglimitations
Lack ofaquaculture
activities
S tart Here
D eterminants
Lack of financialresources capacity
to implementscenarios for
improved fisheriesproduction
1st LEVEL
2nd LEVEL3rd LEVEL4th LEVEL W hy is th is problem happening?
W hy?W hy?W hy?
Problem
PN 34 I m proved fisheries productivity Problem Tree
Causal analysis / Problem tree
Refining and presenting your problem tree
• Adapt or develop anew your project problem tree for presentation (PowerPoint or cards)
• If cards, writing one problem per card– Use one color for problems the project will address
– Use another for other problems
• Modify, and add as you see fit – But don’t go into too much detail
• We’ll present the problem trees together with project visions in plenary
Exercise
1
Example of a Problem Tree developed during an IP workshop
Fishers cooperatein fisheries
management
K nowledge o foptions in
enhancementtechno logiestrans ferred
Financial resourcesfo r improved
fisheriesproductivity and
managementobtained
Respons ib leharves t ings trategies
Improvedprocess ingmethods
A quacultureact ivit ies
implemented
Optimized use o ffisheries
productioncapacity
Increasedreservo ir
productivity andmanagement
Enhancedlivelihoods
PN 34 ( I m proved F isheries Production) Ob jectives Tree
Goal1st LEVEL2nd LEVEL
3rd LEVEL4th LEVEL
D epres s edLivelihoods
LimitedReservo ir
Productivity
UnderusedFisheries
ProductionC apacity
Bad HarvestingStrategies
Uncooperativeattitudes of fishers
w ith respect tomanagement of
fisheries resources
Lack of know ledgeof options ofenhancementtechnologies
Processinglimitations
Lack ofaquaculture
activities
S tart Here
D eterminants
Lack of financialresources capacity
to implementscenarios for
improved fisheriesproduction
1st LEVEL
2nd LEVEL3rd LEVEL4th LEVEL W hy is th is problem happening?
W hy?W hy?W hy?
Problem
PN 34 I m proved fisheries productivity Problem Tree
PN 34 Improved Fisheries Management Problem and Outcome Trees
Main problem to Goal
Determinants to Products
Problems to Outcomes
Deriving Products/ Outputs from the Problem
Tree
• The determinants are the problems the project is directly addressing with its outputs
Hint: the use of the output solves the determinant
• Identify, write on cards and add to the problem tree the outputs, showing which determinants they correspond to
Exercise
2
Example from Ground Water Governance (PN42)
Some definitions Activity – what we’re doing inside the project
Hold IP Workshop Outputs – what we produce that other people make use of, that solve the
determinant Improved rice variety; priority setting publication
Determinant – determinants are the problems the project is directly addressing with its outputs
Next users – people and organizations who directly use the outputs End users – the people and organizations that the next users work with. Often the
end users are the ultimate beneficiaries (e.g., resource-poor farmers), but not always.
Politically-important actors– people and organizations whose support is needed for project success
Outcomes – usually the results of the use of outputs by others (often come in chains)
Promotion of rice variety by extension system Adoption of rice variety by farmers Higher rice yields Higher income More children sent to school
Level of influence of Project
High
CONTROL
Low
Research Output Output Outcome Impactactivity target
Level of influence of a project -change
3 years 10 - 30 years
Scaling Out and Scaling Up
• Scaling up - an institutional expansion, from adopters and their grassroots organizations to policy makers, donors, development institutions
• Scaling out - spread of a project outputs (i.e., a new technology, a new strategy, etc.) from farmer to farmer, community to community, within the same stakeholder groups
Develop a vision of project success 2 years after the end of
the project• Take 5 minutes to individually answer the question, then
develop common project vision by filling out Worksheet 1– You wake up 2 years after your project has finished. Your project
has been a success and is well on its way to achieving its goal. Describe what this success looks like to a journalist:
• What was the situation like before the project started (hint – look at the problem tree)
– What were the unmet needs and requirements of next users and end users?
• What are the next users now doing differently?
• How are project outputs disseminating (scaling out)?
• What political support is nurturing this spread (scaling up)?
• What are the end users doing differently?
• What are the benefits they are enjoying as a result of the project?
Kee
p it
rea
list
icExercise
3
Impact pathways – a more complete picture….
<-----the full picture---->
>---------------Actor-orientated perspective---------
>--
----
----
----
Ou
tco
me-
chai
n p
ersp
ecti
ve--
----
----
----
----
>
C
ausa
l Ana
lysi
s
Network maps
Workshop Road Map
1. Problem Tree
2. Outputs
3. Vis ion
7. Outcom es logic m odel
4. "Now"network m ap
W hat the pro j ect w ill produce
W here pro j ect is go ing - Goal
Necessaryrelationshipsin placeto producethe OUTPUTS
Helps understand pro ject rationaleand w hat needs to change
5. "Future"network m apNecessaryrelationshipsto achievethe VI S I ON
Ide
nti
fyin
g a
lin
ea
r lo
gic
lin
kin
gp
roje
ct o
utp
uts
to
pro
ject
go
al
Inte
gra
tio
n o
fb
oth
vie
ws
6. ProjectS caling
S trategy
Ide
nti
fyin
g t
he
evo
lvin
gn
etw
ork
of
act
ors
ne
ed
ed
to a
chie
ve t
he
vis
ion
The outcomes the pro j ect w ill help achieve, how , and w ith w hom
Pro
du
cts
pro
du
ced
in
th
e W
ork
sho
pP
rod
uct
s p
rod
uce
da
fte
r th
e w
ork
sho
p
M i lestonesandprogressm arkers
Program - levelnetwork m aps
I m pactlogic m odel
Technologyextrapolationdom ain m aps
I m pactnarrative
What is a network?
Many kinds of entities can be part of a network: people, projects, organisations, documents, events, cities, countries, etc.
Each of these entities can have different levels of influence in the network, and
And there are many kinds of relationships that can link such entities, involving transmission or exchange of information, money, goods, affection, influence, infection, etc.
A network is a collection of people and / or things that
are connected to each other by some kind of relationship
Advantages of network models
Actor-oriented descriptions: observable, understandable, verifiable
Captures real-life complexity: We are subject to multiple influences We influence many others
Network models help us understand innovation processes: Innovation processes happen through different actors,
acting in networks These interactions, relationships and influence are modeled
in network maps
Airline network
Road Network
How change happens
Orlikowski and Hofman, 1997
Improvements in poverty alleviation, food security and the state of natural resources result from dynamic, interactive, non-linear, and generally
uncertain processes of innovation.” EIARD, 2003
A network diagram
(organisations linked by a project)
Influence pathway: actor + relationship + actor + relationship…
CPWF
CREPA
ENTERPRISE
FGs
FRANC
ISSER
IWMI
KNUST
MAs
MOFA
RVAU
SGs
UC
UDS
URBANET
WRC
WRI
A plotted network diagram, multiple relations
The human eye is an analytic tool of remarkable power, and eyeballing pictures of networks is an excellent way to gain an understanding of their structure.
(The structure and function of complex networks, M. E. J. Newman)
A plotted network diagram, one type
of relation
Network tasks…..
1. Identify relevant actors
2. Develop network diagrams of key relationships (research, funding, scaling out and scaling up) for
Your project now Residual network 2 years after project has finished
3. Identify key levels of influence
4. Develop a scaling influence strategy (Worksheet 2)
Identify key actors
• Who are the actors involved in research, funding, scaling out and scaling up in the area your project is working in? Can be positions (eg. DDG-R) or organizationsRemember actors at different scales: community/local, your
own organization, regional, national, international
Some types of actors
Government Organization National Agricultural Research and Extension Organization (NAREO)
CGIAR CentreUniversity
Ultimate BeneficiaryNGO
Research OrganizationPrivate Sector
DonorOther (please specify)
Fill out an actor table (Table 1)
ACRONYM FULL NAME LOCATION TYPE OF ORGANIZATION
ROLE
IRRI Int. Rice Research Institute
Los Baños, Philippines
CG Centre Project implementer
MOFA Ministry of Fisheries and Agric.
Accra, Ghana
GO Politically-important actor
FGs Farmers Groups Northern Ghana
Ult. beneficiary End user
PhilRice Philippine Rice Research Institute
Muños, Philippines
NAREO Next user
DfID Dept. for Int. Development
London, England
Govnt. Org Funding agency
DDG-R Deputy Director General of Research
CIAT, Cali CG Centre Scaling-out actor
Exercise
4a
Develop a network diagram for your project now
Actors: Use cards for nodes Use different colour cards for different types of node
yellow = project implementers, blue = next user, green = end user, red = politically-important actor, red with black dot = donor
Relationships Use arrows to describe direction Use colour to describe relationship type
Green = funding; brown = research / work; red = scaling out; black = scaling up
Don’t use distance/length
Exercise
4b
Identify influence levels and attitudes in the
networks
Actors: Construct influence towers (0-3 chips) for key actors Indicate their attitude towards your project:
positive neutral negative
Exercise
4c
Draw a second network showing how actors need to be linked to achieve the vision Adjust the influence and attitude
Will the attitude of the actor remain the same or change? Will the same actors still be equally influential? Will there be new influential actors in the area?
Develop a future network corresponding to the vision
Exercise
5
Developing a Scaling Strategy (Table 2)
Describe the most important
differences between the two networks
Why is the change important to
achieve the vision?
What are the project’s strategies for achieving the
change?
Exercise
6a
Network Changes Achieved since the beginning of the project
(Table 2)
Exercise
6b
Describe the most important network and influence changes since the beginning of the project
Why was the change important?
What were the project’s strategies (e.g., co-development of knowledge and technology, communication, political lobbying, etc.) for achieving these changes?
Workshop Road Map
1. Problem Tree
2. Outputs
3. Vis ion
7. Outcom es logic m odel
4. "Now"network m ap
W hat the pro j ect w ill produce
W here pro j ect is go ing - Goal
Necessaryrelationshipsin placeto producethe OUTPUTS
Helps understand pro ject rationaleand w hat needs to change
5. "Future"network m apNecessaryrelationshipsto achievethe VI S I ON
Ide
nti
fyin
g a
lin
ea
r lo
gic
lin
kin
gp
roje
ct o
utp
uts
to
pro
ject
go
al
Inte
gra
tio
n o
fb
oth
vie
ws
6. ProjectS caling
S trategy
Ide
nti
fyin
g t
he
evo
lvin
gn
etw
ork
of
act
ors
ne
ed
ed
to a
chie
ve t
he
vis
ion
The outcomes the pro j ect w ill help achieve, how , and w ith w hom
Pro
du
cts
pro
du
ced
in
th
e W
ork
sho
pP
rod
uct
s p
rod
uce
da
fte
r th
e w
ork
sho
p
M i lestonesandprogressm arkers
Program - levelnetwork m aps
I m pactlogic m odel
Technologyextrapolationdom ain m aps
I m pactnarrative
Developing the Outcomes Logic Model (a description of the project’s impact
pathways)
• Why (Dart, 2005)?– To evaluate or clarify the logic of the project
intervention– To provide a framework to evaluate the
performance of a project • Before, during and after
• Evaluation can provide information to improve decision making and enhance learning
Outcomes Logic Model (fill one table for all stakeholder groups)
Actor (or group of actors who are expected to change in the same way)
Change in Practice required to achieve the Project’s Vision
Change in KAS required to support this change
Project strategies to bring about these changes in KAS and Practice?
Exercise
7
KAS = Knowledge, Attitudes and Skills
Identify Outcome Targets (prioritize changes from Outcomes Logic Model)
Exercise
8
The key outcomes the project wishes
to monitor
Assumptions SMART outcome
target
Means of verification?By whom?
How?
SMART = Specific, Measurable, Attributable, Realistic, Timebound
Identifying Milestones
SMART Outcome Target
SMART Milestone to be achieved in
the next six months
Means of Verification? By whom? In what form?
Who is responsible for making
the progress
described?
Exercise
9
1
2
3
4
5
Future witho utinte rve ntio n
Vis io n
Im p a ctPa th w a y s
Im pr o ve m e nt
Ti m e
1
Im p a ct Pa th w a y sW o rk sh o p
Where we are now
Impact Pathways Evaluation
1
2
3
4
5
Future witho utinte rve ntio n
Adjus te dVis io nAd ju s te d
Im p a ct Pa th w a y s
Im pr o ve m e nt
Ti m e
2
Re fle ctio n
The process
1
2
3
4
5
Future witho utinte rve ntio n
Vis io ns
Im p a ct p a th w a y s
Ac tualim pro ve m e nts
Im pr o ve m e nt
Ti m e
3
Re fle ctio nW o rk sh o p s
Workshop Road Map
1. Problem Tree
2. Outputs
3. Vis ion
7. Outcom es logic m odel
4. "Now"network m ap
W hat the pro j ect w ill produce
W here pro j ect is go ing - Goal
Necessaryrelationshipsin placeto producethe OUTPUTS
Helps understand pro ject rationaleand w hat needs to change
5. "Future"network m apNecessaryrelationshipsto achievethe VI S I ON
Ide
nti
fyin
g a
lin
ea
r lo
gic
lin
kin
gp
roje
ct o
utp
uts
to
pro
ject
go
al
Inte
gra
tio
n o
fb
oth
vie
ws
6. ProjectS caling
S trategyId
en
tify
ing
th
e e
volv
ing
ne
two
rk o
f a
cto
rs n
ee
de
dto
ach
ieve
th
e v
isio
n
The outcomes the pro j ect w ill help achieve, how , and w ith w hom
Pro
du
cts
pro
du
ced
in
th
e W
ork
sho
pP
rod
uct
s p
rod
uce
da
fte
r th
e w
ork
sho
p
Outcom etargets andm ilestones
Program - levelnetwork m aps
I m pactlogic m odel
Technologyextrapolationdom ain m aps
I m pactnarrative
Use of PIPA OutputsUse of PIPA outputs PIPA outputs used
Ex-ante impact assessment
Essential:Impact logic model, output targets, impact narrativeOptional:Extrapolation domain analysis, scenario analysis
Impact Pathways Analysis Essential:Outcomes logic model, outcome targets and milestones, visionOptional:Impact logic model
Laying the foundation for ex-post impact assessment
Essential:Outcomes logic model and impact logic modelOptional:Impact pathways analysis (that updates project impact hypotheses)Extrapolation domain analysis
Program network maps Essential:‘Now’ and ‘future’ network maps
Farm ers usingdrought probability
m ap and droughtto lerant varieties
I m proved utility ofcom m unity dugouts
Majority ofcom m unities in
Northern Ghana haveconstructed and are
using dom estic w aterharvesting system s
More tim e forincom e
generatingactivities for
w om en
I m provedincom e for rural
households
I m proved foodsecurity and
rurallivelihoods
I m proved croppingsystem s in Northern
Ghana
Farm ers plant toavoid crop loss dueto draught, m ajority
have intensifiedcropping system s
Farm ers routinelygenerate organic
m atter , e.g.com posting andcover cropping
Farm ers usingappropriate
tillage m ethodsto conserve
soil m oisture
Changes tohousing
structure tom eet w aterharvesting
needs
More w ateravailable for
dom estic needs
High labourproductivity
High land andw ater
productivity
Com m unitydugouts
effi cientlyutilized for fish
production
Effective m anagem entof com m unity w ater
resources
Adequate w atersupply for dry
seasonagriculture
I m proved soilfertility
Project Goals
9
8
11
10
11
Drought probabilitym ap
Drought to lerantvarieties developed
Crop productionguides or m anuals for
MoFA
Best-bet soil and w aterconservation and
m anagem ent optionsm anuals
5
S caling up
Dugoutsenhanced toretain w ater
Com m unitieshave know ledge
of low -costdom estic w ater-
harvestingsystem s
Com m unitiestrained on
effi cient fishproductiontechniques
Manuals on fish culture indugouts and dugout
m aintenance
Manuals onappropriate w ater
harvesting system s
Reduction in w aterrelated diseases
4
Methods developed toinstitutionalize dialogueabout w ater use am ong
m ultiple users
7
Crop Related Outputs
Water Related Outputs
Crop Related Outcomes
Water Related Outcomes
W ater UsersAssociations form ed
and strengthened
Higher cropyields
W ider adoption of project outputs beyondpilot sites
Adoption of pro ject outputs by MoFA forextension after project finishes
National variety releasecom m ittee releases
varieties
6
Scaling Up
3Project Activities
carried out in PilotSites w ith
stakeholders andultimate
beneficiaries
1ScalingOut
ScalingOut
Soil and w aterconservation im proved
in farm lands in N.Ghana
I mprovedknow ledge ofstakeholdersat pilo t sites
Changes instakeholdersattitudes andperceptions
S takeholdersmodify and
innovate
Adoption oftechnologiesand changesin practice
I terations oflearning cycle
2
Impact Logic Model for the Strategic Innovations in Dryland Farming (SIDF) Project
Says little about who does what …….an actor-orientated perspective is missing
……provided by network mapping
….. as part of an impact narrative
Scope of impact
Un
cert
ain
ty
of
imp
act
Local, close-to-project
Basin-scale, global
Secured
Anticipated
Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis
Extrapolation domain analysis
Scenario analysis
Methodologies used for evaluating impact potential
Exploring possibilities
Link between regions through bio-physical similarities
But socio-economic condition also critical
EDA method
Origin
Representative sites selected
Critical success factors (soc)
selected
Homologue WofE
Modelling
P ( soc ) i estimated
P (bio) i estimated
Origin
Target
Representative sites selected
Critical success factors (soc)
selected
Homologue WofE
P ( soc ) i estimated
P (bio) i estimated
Looking for pixels with similar climate (and soil)
Looking for pixels with
similar socio-economic (land use
factors)
Project origin
Extrapolation domain of aerobic rice in Asia
Areas that hold promise for adoption of aerobic rice
EDA: Summary
• Method in development
• Represents what what is believed, on basis of– Current experience– Available global data
• Beware false prophets, BUT…
• …a rapid first step in exploratory dialogue with new stakeholders
Info needed for Extrapolation Domain Analysis
What is the main change that your project is contributing to that is likely to scale-out and scale-up? Who will adopt?
What are the factors likely to influence scaling-out and scaling-up?
Where are your pilot sites in which the change is starting to happen?
Exercise
10
Volta – Research network
Next Steps
• Participants finish worksheets and send to BFP-Impact Project (end of Nov)
• IP writes workshop report (end of Nov)• IP send draft impact narratives to projects
(end of Jan)• Participants respond to queries (end of Feb)• IP write first draft of Limpopo Basin Impact
Pathways Working Paper (end of March)