lighthouse precious metals report - 2014 - september

8/11/2019 Lighthouse Precious Metals Report - 2014 - September

1/16

L

A 20

I

14

1


2/16

L I

A 2014 2

C

I G F? .................................................................................................................. 3

C: B .......................................................................................................................... 4

C: D .............................................................................................................................. 5

F D ......................................................................................................................... 6

: I ..................................................................................................................... 7

: I ........................................................................................................................ 8

I E: F ....................................................................................................................... 9

I: .............................................................................................................................. 10

C B B () ................................................................................................... 13

C B B (/ ).................................................................................................. 14

G E : A C? .................................................................................... 15


3/16

L I

A 2014 3

Why Is The Price of Gold Falling?

, 1%, 9%:

' , .

?


4/16

L I

A 2014 4

Commodities: Bear-Market

; :

CB

C (I), G () 5%

C L 11%

C (B) 12%

22%

C 23%

29%


5/16

L I

A 2014 5

Currencies: Strong Dollar

D , J

J

, E

G ( )

. A

,

.

($D, )

(0.95)


6/16

L I

A 2014 6

Reasons For Dollar Strength

4.6% (, ) 2, E

( ). C () .

C B (F) ,

4.

E C B (ECB) ;

1 E :

A , F ECB . L

E.


7/16

L I

A 2014 7

Nominal Yields: Slight Increase

...


8/16

L I

A 2014 8

Real Yields: Notable Increase

... (10, 30) (5)

EAL = IAL IFLAI

( ):

IFLAI EECAI = IAL EAL


9/16

L I

A 2014 9

Inflation Expectations: Falling

I , (5) , (

2% 1.6%) J.

. H,

E (' '),

2015.

L , .


10/16

L I

A 2014 10

US Inflation: Slow-down

( & )

A 1% ( 3 ).

F ; 2 2.5% (

)

F ( ).

. I GD ,

( GD = GD ).

, I F

/ . .

A '' ( F

10 ). I

D ( F D).


11/16

L I

A 2014 11

( )

" ".

B (B) : D F

( ) B CHF E. K E ECB , , . B E

. B ( CHF 18

18 1.20 ) ( B

H ). H B AAA E .

B G . I

G (10 0.9%,

3). I B' :

B

(G

). , , .

A , , F . I ,

;

( ).


12/16

L I

A 2014 12

A '' .

'G ' $15

. J

. F' $3 4.1 .H, ' $2.7 . H 90%

F '' F. ,

. A

$4.5 $1.6 . ' 3 .

, :


13/16

L I

A 2014 13

Central Bank Balance Sheets (combined)

, 6 C B

$3 $15 .

F : ' $1.25 .


14/16

L I

A 2014 14

Central Bank Balance Sheets (y/y change)

E ' E' , .

C B (2010, 2012) , .

A, ECB 2013 ( ).


15/16

L I

A 2014 15

Swiss Gold Exports by Region: What About China?

L C

H, C (

37 3 C, 99 3 H K).

I .

H1 2014. C

D F , GD.

, , L .

C . , .

A : C .

G E (GE)

18. .


16/16

L I

A 2014 16

C "A9999" (99.99 , 1 )

.

"L G D" 99.5% (

GE)

C ( ) .

, L ( CE) ( ?)

.

A .

A G LI

,

'

,

'

, , ,

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +

, ()

() ,

lighthouse precious metals report - 2014 - september

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