8/14/2019 Lighthouse - Letter to investors - 2013-11.pdf

1/12

L I M

L I , 2013 1

8/14/2019 Lighthouse - Letter to investors - 2013-11.pdf

2/12

L I M

L I , 2013 2

Contents

C M: D F M? ............................................................................. 3

F F ..................................................................................................................................... 8

A E: B .......................................................................................................... 11

8/14/2019 Lighthouse - Letter to investors - 2013-11.pdf

3/12

L I M

L I , 2013 3

Conversations with Myself: Does The Fed Print Money?

I , (

"" C "") . ' : F ?

A , B "

"1.

: F !

C: I .

: ?

C: I , M, B E .

: B F

C: F ' F.

F, . F

.

: , I E.

C: , ? A F .

F .

.

: I' .

M 28, 2013,

$13 7

2. A 4, $3

F.

C: A?

: F 100%

10

! A

1B B, H C F , J 2013

21.125% M 31, 2020, CI 9128280

8/14/2019 Lighthouse - Letter to investors - 2013-11.pdf

4/12

L I M

L I , 2013 4

F , '

" "?

C: "M " F .

: B 100% F

.

, .

C: .

: . B ! E : F

, , ?

C: C . ' . F ,

. F , " F".

: A . F "" .

C: ? M , ?

: ' 2008... C

F

?

C: .

: A F . L

''

.

. '

.

C:

11% 4% GD.

1.7%

GD. A F

,

.

: B . F , .

? C .

8/14/2019 Lighthouse - Letter to investors - 2013-11.pdf

5/12

L I M

L I , 2013 5

. , ,

, . L :

' , ( ).

. , . I

. .

C: F?

: I F ,

.

C: . .

: , ?

C: A, . , I ? F'

$800 2007 $3.8 . A 1.7%.

: F , , . ' . I,

F $2.2 . B , . A,

, $22 .

D' ' $17 .

C: B . '

. . ' .

: ' MM M M . .

C: I ,

F.

: , : , , ,

' , ?

C: ,

.

: A, K . B K

.

C: L, 100% GD . I' , ' , '

.

: .

C: " "? I' , ?

8/14/2019 Lighthouse - Letter to investors - 2013-11.pdf

6/12

L I M

L I , 2013 6

: A , , ,

.

C: . I ' .

.

: . F

' . .

C: ' . D ( 3)

4

.

: , ?

C: , D " D C F" F. F 2008

2010, $9 .

: 80 .

C: H ?

: 1790. I 1933,

( ). I 1971, ' ' C B. I 1979, '

B , . 100 , 98% .

3B , BM, B, B, C, C, C , D, D, G, HBC, J, J

M, M, M, M , , BC, B, G, B4"A D", F B , J 2010

8/14/2019 Lighthouse - Letter to investors - 2013-11.pdf

7/12

L I M

L I , 2013 7

C: ' .

: I ' '.

C: , ,

25% , G D?

: D' 1980'? I 14%,

19% . ,

.

C: . $3.50 $39.50 .

:

. I .

C: , ?

: L' . ' .

8/14/2019 Lighthouse - Letter to investors - 2013-11.pdf

8/12

L I M

L I , 2013 8

Figuring Out The Fed

2008, F

. I $1 . B . F '

? F , .

' '.

I ( ), GD . A

' GD, . GD

( ),

. , 100% GD

.

100%.

H' GD

(

). F 19502000, GD

,

. I 13

,

GD. A

,

. I '

.

GD

: (,

) (, ).

F ' . I , ,

, . '' 10% .

, , 10 ' 3%. F

' '. I , , 3% ( ). B 7% , C

J ' . F

. .

, . 11%

4.4% GD ( , GD). L'

4% .

8/14/2019 Lighthouse - Letter to investors - 2013-11.pdf

9/12

L I M

L I , 2013 9

. I GD , '

4% GD .

4% GD.

3% 1%

( A,

).

I 1%

,

3% 4% ( B).

H, , 1% GD

2% ( C). . B

GD ( ,

, ). A,

( , ). L

.

4% GD . H, 12%.

"B". F 3% .

F . I ,

( ):

I : I ' '' ( ),

. A 20% 2%.

, ( ).

8/14/2019 Lighthouse - Letter to investors - 2013-11.pdf

10/12

L I M

L I , 2013 10

: F G $438 $16.7 ,

2.6% . I 10%,

$1.7 ( : $289).

I , F ' '. I

' , , 3%, .

, / .

D : F $2.1 . A

($1.6 2012), F ($88).

( ). I'

' . F , .

() (F).

F '' 2 , ' '5.

A :

(

). F

'

.I

2% (

),

3% 4% .

.

CCLI: F' , , 3% (

). ,

.G '' F

.

5A , .

F C/ , G, B, : ,

8/14/2019 Lighthouse - Letter to investors - 2013-11.pdf

11/12

L I M

L I , 2013 11

Anecdotal Evidence: The Back Office

.

I . H . A ,

. , .

, , .

I ,

. M . I

.

I , ' H.

. I . ,

. G I

' . J, I

" ", .

L, , '': "I !"

I ' .

8/14/2019 Lighthouse - Letter to investors - 2013-11.pdf

12/12

L I M

L I , 2013 12

A .

A.G@LIM.

,

'

,

'

, , ,

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +

, ()

() ,