lifetime of buildings churches: 500years harbor facilities: 200 years family houses: 100 years road...

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Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping malls: 80 years Office buildings: 50 years Industrial buildings: 40 years What is the max, windspeed which is expected to occur once in the lifetime of the building?

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Page 1: Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping

Lifetime of buildingsChurches: 500yearsHarbor facilities: 200 yearsFamily houses: 100 yearsRoad bridges: 100 yearsRailway bridges: 80 yearsShopping malls: 80 yearsOffice buildings: 50 yearsIndustrial buildings: 40 years

What is the max, windspeed which is expected to occur once in the lifetime of the building?

Page 2: Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping

wind statistics 2006 Bp.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 2 4 6 8 10

wind speed m/s

annu

al p

roba

bilit

y %

Page 3: Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping

Órás relatív szélirány- és szélsebességgyakoriság a Budapest, II. kerület, Kitaibel Pál u. OMSZ meteorológiai állomáson a 2005. évben

0

1

2

3

4

5É

ÉÉK

ÉK

KÉK

K

KDK

DK

DDK

D

DDNY

DNY

NYDNY

NY

NYÉNY

ÉNY

ÉÉNY0.0 - 0.5

0.5 - 1.0

1.0 - 1.5

1.5 - 2.0

2.0 - 2.5

2.5 - 3.0

3.0 - 3.5

3.5 - 4.0

4.0 - 4.5

4.5 - 5.0

Sebességosztályok [m/s]

H = 10 m

Gyakoriság [%]

Page 4: Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping

Prediction of design wind speeds

• Return Period (mean recurrence interval) :

Unit : depends on population from which extreme value is selected

A 50-year return-period wind speed has an probability of exceedence of 0.02 in any one year

Return Period, R = exceedenceofyProbabilit1

(U)F11

U

e.g. for annual maximum wind speeds, R is in years

it should not be interpreted as occurring regularly every 50 years

or average rate of exceedence of 1 in 50 years

Wind loading and structural responseLecture 4 Dr. J.D. Holmes

Page 5: Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping

Prediction of design wind speeds• Lifetime of structure, L

Appropriate return period, R, for a given risk of exceedence, r, during a lifetime ?

Assume each year is independent

L

R

)1(1

L

Rr

)1(11

)1(1R

Probability of non exceedence of a given wind speed

in any one year =

Probability of non exceedence of a given wind speed in L years =

Risk of exceedence of a given wind speed in L years,

Page 6: Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping

Prediction of design wind speeds• Example :

L = 50 years

636.0)501(11

50

r

R = 50 years

There is a 64% chance that U50 will be exceeded in the next 50 years

Risk of exceedence of a 50-year return period wind speed in 50 years,

Page 7: Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0 200 400 600

Mean reoccurence interval (MRI)

peak

gus

t win

d sp

eed

conv

ersi

on fa

ctor

MRI peak gust wind speed

years conversion factor

5 0.78

10 0.84

25 0.93

50 1

100 1.07

200 1.14

500 1.23

Page 8: Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping

Page 9: Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping

Ceppi, P., Della-Marta, P.M., Appenzeller, C.: 2008, Extreme Value Analysis of Wind Speed Observations over Switzerland, Arbeitsberichte der MeteoSchweiz, 219, 43pp

Page 10: Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping

Page 11: Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping

Page 12: Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping

• T = 4 - 4.5 s link

Page 13: Lifetime of buildings Churches: 500years Harbor facilities: 200 years Family houses: 100 years Road bridges: 100 years Railway bridges: 80 years Shopping

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