life cycle assessment: past, present and...

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Life cycle assessment: past, present and future

Jeroen GuinéeInstitute of Environmental Science (CML) - Department of Industrial Ecology (IE)

Leiden University

International Symposium on Life Cycle Assessment & Construction, July 10-12 2012, Nantes


• How did this develop from past to present and what can we expect in the future?

Communication networks

Divergence of methods

Robustness of results


“Definitions”

• Past:– 1970-1990: conception– 1990-2000: standardization

• Present:– 2000-2010: elaboration

• Future:– 2010-onwards


Contents

• Past: history of LCA• Present: where are we today• Future: how is LCA expected to further evolve• Conclusions

• Source: Guinée et al. 2011, ES&T(45)1, 90-96

Past


• Late 60s and early 70s: first solid waste LCAs

• Later broadened to energy, resources, chemical emissions and solid waste

• Beverage containers:– Midwest Research Institute (Kansas City, US)

� Resource and Environmental Profile Analysis (REPA)

– Basler & Hofmann in Switzerland

Past


Basler & Hofmann, 1974

• First “impact assessment” from 1974 !!


Rapidly growing interest in early 80s

• Swiss EMPA 1984: “Ökobilanzen von Packstoffen”– first “database”

Past


• Workshops

• LCA guides and handbooks• Dedicated scientific journals

• Databases& software

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Figure 3 -3: Total cumulative number of LCA software tools per year that has been

released to the market during the period 1989-2003.

Figure 3-8: Total cumulative number of LCA handbook per year that has been

released to the market during the period 1991-2004

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

90s: Remarkable growth of scientific activities world-wide


BUT, 80s & early 90s also period of:

• Widely diverging approaches, terminologies & results

• Lack of international scientific discussion platforms

• LCA repeatedly applied by firms to substantiate market claims

Past


and ….. intense disputes• Cups, diapers,

packaging

• Understandable:– economic

interests– products are

complex & have different features Source: Hocking in Science 1991, 251 (4993), 504-50 5

Past


Thus, first harmonisation activities

• SETAC ‘Code of Practice’

Past


ISO Standardization

Past


ISO’s framework

Direct applications:

- Product development

and improvement

- Strategic planning

- Public policy making

- Marketing

- Other

Goal and scope

definition

Inventory

analysis

Impact

assessment

Interpretation

Life cycle assessment framework

Past


Present LCA (2000-2010): decade of elaboration

• UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative launched in 2002:– putting LCT into practice (http://lcinitiative.unep.fr/)

– improving supporting tools through better data and indicators

• European Policy– Integrated Product Policy (IPP) etc.

– European Platform on LCA established in 2005– Renewable Energy Directive (RED)

• US-EPA promotes use of LCA: http://www.epa.gov/nrmrl/lcaccess/

• Various regional LCA networksPresent


Even LCA articles in ES&T

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Past


Life-cycle based carbon footprints emerged all over the Globe

• Basis for e.g. granting subsidies stimulating use of bio-energy– indicator results MUST be robust and ‘lawsuit-proof’– uncertainty analysis and PCRs !!!

• Limited scope focusing on CO2(-eq.)

• Indirect effects are insufficiently addressed by (particularly) “attributional” LCA studies

Present


New LCA Handbooks & standards

Present


But also new divergence

• With respect to:– allocation, system boundaries, consequential LCA,

use of economic models, impact assessment methods, economic and social indicators, spatial differentiation, temporal differentiation / dynamics, input-output based modelling, etc.

• Fully in line with ISO 14040, clause 4.3 g:

“there is no single method for conducting LCA”

Present


Starting situation for CALCAS

“There is a growing divergence of LCA approaches and there is a need to tackle several

shortcomings of LCA as, e.g., surfaced from discussions on biofuel LCAs”

– broadening (more impact types; broader questions)– deepening (more mechanisms; better models)

• Research needs for future LCA

• Finished EU FP6 project: http://www.calcasproject.net/

Future


Deepening: “more mechanisms”

• For example, rebound effects:– higher efficiency � lower prices � higher demand of

same or other product or service � more (?) impacts� more efficient cars � bigger cars� high-efficient light bulbs � more light points

– approaches:� eco-efficiency vector (Hertwich J. Ind. Ecol. 9(1-2): 85-98)� checklist approach (Hofstetter et al. JLCA11(SI1): 105-115)� marginal consumption (Thiesen et al. JLCA13(2): 104-114� consumption-as-usual concept (Girod et al. JLCA16(1): 3-11)

Future


Deepening: “better models”

• For example:– BLM models– dynamic LCA– ...

Future


Broadening: “more impact types”

Future


Broadening: “broader questions”

• For example:– sectors– basket of commodities (e.g., product portfolio

company)– countries/economies– challenges for 2050: how to feed, fuel, transport,

clothe …. 9.5 billion people living the good life in a sustainable way in 2050?

Future


2010-2020: decade of LCSA

• LCSA = Life-Cycle Sustainability Analysis

• First adopted by Klöpffer & Renner (2008):– LCSA = LCA + LCC + SLCA

• Also adopted by CALCAS but slightly adapted:– broadening and deepening– framework for linking questions to approaches,

identifying gaps and defining research needs

• LCSA ≠≠≠≠ super-framework !!

Future


LCSA in a nutshell

• Life-cycle based !!• Broadening

– “triple bottom line”� People� Planet� Prosperity

– object of analysis� product� sector, basket of products, ...� country, economy, ...

• Deepening– scope of mechanisms

� rebounds, ...

– particular mechanism� better models

25Future


Questions

Role

of sc

enar

ios

Guinée et al., ES&T(45)1:90-96


Conclusions Past and Present• 1960-1990:

– from solid waste analysis to full-fledged LCI methods– divergence of terminology & methods, no platforms

• 1990-2000: – full-fledged impact assessment methods– Convergence through ISO-14040 series of Standards

• 2000-2010:– LCC, social-LCA, consequential LCA– divergence of methods again

Conclusions


Conclusions Future

• LCSA will receive increasing attention

• LCSA is a framework: select from this framework what is relevant for your study– significant deviation from mainstream current practice

applying LCA as a method using one of the existing guides & handbooks

• There is thus no standard LCSA– all depends on the question– framing of questions and linking types of questions to

approaches very important !!

Conclusions


It’s already developing ….• LCSA section in International Society for

Industrial Ecology (ISIE) • UNEP WG on LCSA (broadening indicators)

• New subject area in the Int. Journal of LCA• Various LCSA articles published:

– Guinee et al. ES&T(45)1: 90-96– Guinée & Heijungs J Ind Ecol15(5): 656-658– Halog & Manik Sustainability(3)2: 469-499– Finkbeiner et al. Sustainability(2)10: 3309-3322– Creutzig et al. NatureClimateChange FirstOnLine

2012Conclusions

www.is4ie.org


Challenges

• Internalisation of life cycle thinking– Life cycle think first, act in accordance!

• LCSA in practice– life cycle scenario analysis

• Dealing with uncertainties– mapping & communicating uncertainties & limitations

of our work in a world increasingly asking for simple answers to complex problems, is a major challenge !!

Conclusions


It’s not the responsibility of the scientist to take the decision aimed for

Conclusions

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