Libya After Gaddafi

Based on: Wolfram Lacher (2013) Fault Lines of the Revolution. Political Actors, Camps and Conflicts in the

New Libya.

Presentation by Sarah A. Lange

Overview•Political Landscape after the fall of Gaddafi•NATO intervention •Sources of Conflict•Recommendations by Lacher and RAND•Conclusion/Update 2014•Sources

Political Camps Many different ethnicities: Berber, Arabs, Turks, Tebou, Tuareg, black Africans

The Revolutionaries

•Main political Party: Justice and Construction (JC), President: Mohamed Sowan

•Muslim Brotherhood

•Sharia Law

“Counter Revolutionaries”

•Main party: National Forces Alliance (NFA), President: Mahmoud Jibril

•Strongest party in the GNC

•Claim to be liberal, democratic, “moderate” role of Islam

Other actors The Independents

•Many from rural cities.

•Affiliated with specific tribes, ethnicities and/or cities

•Represent local interests

•Also divided-some JC and NFA members run as independents to raise chances in local elections

Tribes ( “the 3rd camp”)

•Includes many tribes and families loyal to Gaddafi

•Ca. 1 million people driven out of the country during the civil war-fled to Tunisia and Egypt

•Fear revenge from the revolutionaries

•Very limited political influence

NATO Intervention •From February-October 2011

•Named: Operation Unified Protector

•Requested by the NTC

•Implementation of a no-fly zone

•Countries involved: USA, UK, Italy and France

Aim:

• End civil war

•Stop Gaddafi´s forces-cut off arms supply

•Prevent civilian casualties

Sources of conflict•Power struggle between local and regional forces

Justice•War criminals-debate on how to with former officials of the Gaddafi RegimeSecurity •Borders not secure

•Armed conflicts between the different political camps

•Police/Army-divided loyalties

Economy

The Libyan Economy •CIA World Factbook: “Libya's economy is structured primarily around the nation's energy sector, which generates about 95% of export earnings, 80% of GDP, and 99% of government income”.

Few foreign investors- security situation still too unpredictable

•The “Oil-Curse”-Oil rents and democratization?

•Energy production controlled by the state

•Increased welfare spending and payments to the population on bank holidays

•Large public sector-high wages

•High unemployment

•Other sectors underdeveloped-low wages

•Control over oil fields fought over by militias and GNC-loyal groups

Recommendation by Lacher and RAND:•Libya needs to form strong political institutions-accountable to the public, transparent

•Lower public spending e.g. high subsidies on food and energy

•Strengthen private enterprises

•Energy sector: generation of rents and spending should become more transparent

•Outside help to manage

•e.g. service industry such as tourism

•Telecommunications-media still state-owned

•Financial sector

•Improve infrastructure to attract foreign investment

Conclusion•New civil war deemed unlikely.

•Although there is a risk of disintegration-especially if the main political camps continue to disagree in vital issues. Could lead to a spilt of the country.

Update 2014:

•After a 8 months blockage-Libyan oil back on the market

•Loss in revenues for the Libyan government: $14 billion (10.1 billion Euros)

•Militias control most of the oil fields-used blockade as leverage.

Thank you for your attention

Sources:•Lacher, Wolfram (2013) Fault Lines of the Revolution. Political Actors, Camps and Conflicts in the New Libya. Berlin: German Institute for International and Security Studies (SWP Research Paper 4). Available at: http://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2013_RP04_lac.pdf

•Chivvis, C. and Martini, J. (2014) Libya After Qaddafi-Lessons and Implications for the Future. [online] Santa Monica: RAND Cooperation. Available at: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR500/RR577/RAND_RR577.pdf

•AFP (2014) Libyan oil back on global markets-after blockade that cost $14 billion. Your Middle East [online]. Available at: http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/business/libyan-oil-back-on-global-markets-after-blockade-that-cost-14-billion_22908

•Stephen, C. (2014) Chaos as Libya´s war crimes ‘trial of the century’ fails to produce Gaddafi´s sons. The Guardian [online]. Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/14/libya-war-crimes-trial-gaddafi-sons-observers-barred