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    A Macroeconomic Analysis of Germany

    IntroductionSitting in the heart of Europe, Germany is home to 83m people and the worldsfourth largest economy (nominal GDP). The country is governed by a CSU, CDUand FDP coalition led by Chancellor Angela Merkel. The past century has seen arapid recovery from the ruins of post-World War II to present day status as thepowerhouse of Eurozone economies. An understanding of this process isfundamental to this analysis.

    The economic model adopted during this period was the social market economy,a compromise between socialism and capitalism which is characterized by

    encouraging but regulating the free market economy, targeting high growth, highemployment and low inflation. This has developed an approach to companymanagement, industrial relations, social welfare and the stakeholder conceptwhich compels companies to act in the interests of employees, customers,suppliers and local communities as well as shareholders [1]. This approach wascultivated while focusing on an export led growth, whenever possible. In 1946,millions began returning to Germany post World War II, increasing demand andimports until 1949 when domestic supply adjusted and a modest devaluation ofthe DM stimulated overseas demand for German products [2]. An export surpluswas noted for the duration of the 1950s with government continuing toinvestment in industry to bolster exports. This focus remains today with

    Germanys status as the worlds largest exporter of goods only recently beingtaken by China. Conservative wage policy and price stability were fundamentalcontributors to lower price inflation and an undervalued DM making Germanexports internationally competitive [3].

    Subsequent to this the Bundesbank became the worlds first to introduce a

    strategy based on monetary targets bringing with it price stability and lowinflation. Policies and targets were openly communicated to the public fosteringtransparency and anchoring medium term inflation expectations. TheBundesbank Act, outlining its policy as that of safeguarding the currency,

    developed the DM into the worlds most stable currency after 1945 andenshrined its policies in ECB statute (Maastricht treaty) after. The collapse of theBretton Woods agreement meant in March 1973 the DM could float against othercurrencies following years of fixed exchange rates coming at the expense of pricestability. The sole focus of the Bundesbank could turn to price stability. Initiallyhampered by the 1973 oil crisis, this was soon retraced and between 1960 and1998, German inflation averaged 3.1%, the lowest recorded internationally [4].

    Having established price stability the Bundesbank moved to address problemsposed by reunification. Volumes of spending required to address the poorerEastern State initially increased money supply from Western stocks by 15%

    leading to a large expansion in aggregate expenditure, government deficit andincreased inflation. Between 1990 and 2007 reunification is estimated to have

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    cost 2,000bn [5]. Recent movement of the German yield curve is comparable to1990 as the country braces itself for potentially absorbing part of the weakerEurozone members debt.

    GDP and Labour MarketWith predicted 2010 nominal GDP of 2,462 bn, the German economy is

    approaching pre-crisis levels thanks tothe quick response of an expansionaryfiscal policy. Since 2005 privateconsumption has noted large annualincreases which have been relativelyunaffected by the world economicdownturn and reduced the impact ofsteep declines in exports. The export led

    economy has a large exposure to thehealth of the world economy andbroadly speaking measures taken between 2007 and 2009 to address the slumphave worked as exports approach 2007 levels. The largest impacted contributorwas machinery (40% of total exports) as company deleveraging and limitedcredit takes hold. Stripping out inflation we see German growth over the firsthalf of the decade being far less aggressive than world counterparts with asimilar recovery trajectory to the USA, though measures taken to achieve theserecoveries are hugely contrasting. The fiscal policy specifically targetedincreases in private consumption andinvestment spending while other

    factors such as the stage of theinventory cycle and global economicconditions bolstered trade. While GDPcontinues to expand, its sustainedgrowth is doubtful. Governmentintroduced automatic stabilizers(short term working subsidies) andspending increases have not come cheap changing the government balance fromzero in 2008 to a deficit of 4.1% in 2010. Fiscal policy is now changing to rectifythis deficit with spending reductions of 80bn to be implemented by 2014. Thisconstitutes 17% of 2010 government investment and is a significant decrease ininvestment in the economy. Since May 2009, ECB interest rates have been at 1%with deposit rates at .25%. Inflation pressures in Europe and money marketspricing in an ECB interest rate rise asclose as April suggest persistent raterises in the coming 18 months. Thiswill take a considerable amount ofmoney out of the pockets of Germanconsumers. The increased interestrates will dampen appetite forinvestment which may affect exchange

    rates and net exports outside the Euroarea which are currently enjoying

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    foreign exchange benefits from the weaker Euro. Demand will be tested incoming years as stimulus packages and cheap money are phased out.

    While recent performance has surpassed expectations, the potential growth hasremained weak. Between 2000 and 2008, an average of 1.1% was recorded at

    almost half that of its fellow OECD members. The gap in GDP per capita has alsowidened over the same period. Replicating the export success story in otherareas of the economy remains a challenge. Policy and regulation often favorindustry and manufacturing, restricting the services sector that could beparticipating in the expanding world markets, statistics show no element ofinternational competition in a variety of services [5]. Competing on costs in thismarket will prove difficult; with quality and service standards stemming from ahighly educated workforce offering a sustainable path as was the case in the1990s [6]. Boasting a highly educated workforce and strong infrastructureGermany has not attracted the foreign investment it should.. A highly regulatedmarketplace bringing significant barriers to trade and entrepreneurship whencompared to OECD counterparts further has reduced the appeal of undertakingbusiness in Germany. Structural reforms to address this are warranted withattempts to have Ireland relinquish their low corporation tax rate to makeGermany more competitive a token effort

    Large consumption figures noted are affected largely by employment trends withpeoples ability/willingness to spend a function of their income and perceivedfuture incomes. Since 2005 there has been a steady decline in unemploymentwith job center vacancies doubling to 10%. Cyclical unemployment is notedapproaching 2009 before the introduction of stabilizers. Reduced unemployment

    is consistent with confidence levels noted in the PMI. There has been notableadjustment within the labour market with volatile hours worked by employeesnoted suggesting flexibility in industry with working arrangements betweenemployees, which is accommodated by labour law, helping to keep people inemployment. A short-timeworking scheme wasintroduced whereby thegovernment will subsidiesany foregone employeeincome attributable to theeconomic downturn. Firmsmust agree to undertakethis scheme and do so intheir best interests byallowing redundancies and accept challenges of rehiring in time if there is moresavings to be made by doing so [5]. Roughly 1.5 million workers subscribed tothis scheme during 2009 with a 45% reduction by Q2 2010. The effect of this onthe labour market is an increase in efficiency with people who are matched toemployment remaining in same but potential displacement effects whenunsustainable jobs are supported. Striking a balance between keeping people inwork and finding long-term sustainable employment becomes a problem. With

    spending on labour and social services to be targeted in coming cutbacks and thephasing out of the short-time working scheme, there could be a noted increase in

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    long term unemployment where intensive job counseling and expanded trainingprograms will not go far enough to expedite the structural reform.

    Productivity has been in decline to 2009 with sustained increases in pay noted.Pay levels were impacted in 2009 and workers are asked for more work for less

    remuneration in an attempt to maintain profit levels in a tough economic climate.The export led nature of the German economy exposes it to internationalcompetition and higher productivity relative to the domestic sector. This above-average productivity in the export markets is accordingly rewarded which setsthe standard for the domestic market, resulting in an above-average rise inlabour costs, evident from graph to 2009. Known as the Samuelson effect, thelower profit growth reducesemployment potential in thedomestic sector andincreases price levels wheredomestic competition isweakest putting furtherpressure on consumers,which in turn affectscompany revenue andability to fund salary base.This trend ultimately results in layoffs [3]. Offshoring has grown in popularity asa means of tempering this upswing in costs. Taking the arithmetic mean of pastgrowth rates over the past years i.e. one complete business cycle; we note thepotential for 2011 growth to be 2% (using figures from 1970) Considering pastbusiness cycles such as the late seventies when late eighties and adjusting

    accordingly, a figure of i.5% appears a conservative and reasonable figure for2011 growth.

    IndustryPoor performances in the services sector and education contrast to the rapidlyexpanded, industry driven,export sector. Over the pastdecade exports have enjoyed a50% increase in potentialexport markets. Theemergence of the BRIC nationsand in particular China hasbeen a factor, supplementingdeclines in poorer performingeconomies such as the UK andUSA, but 80% of exportsremain to developed OECD nations. China accounted for 4% of total 2010exports, a figure that has steadily increased with the exception of the crisis yearsand is considered a huge growth area. Exports performance is impressive whenconsidering the emergence of nations offering low cost alternatives. Low growth

    in nominal wages, an increase in offshoring, and a weaker Euro have alleffectively reduced costs and increased international competitiveness. Again, the

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    pace of recovery in exports has been notably stronger than locally dragging totaloutput figures up to 2007 levels and highlighting importance to economy.The past decade sees largely positive performances across the main sectors ofindustry with losses in 2007 2009 periods being quickly retraced. One of themost significant of these

    industries is theautomotive industrywhich accounts for one insix jobs in Germany andwas provided 5bn instimulus by againstimulating the demandside of the economy andoffering 2,500 towards anew car to those wishingto exchange a nine yearold or older car. Further reform was noted in motor vehicle tax, easing costsrelative to CO2 emissions. Surprisingly, machinery and equipment, which makesup 40% of exports is struggling relative to smaller sectors of electronics andcapital goods. All industrial components have an exposure to the increasing priceof oil. Declining inventories during a severe winter of December 2010 andcontinued unrest in some Middle Eastern oil producing nations have seen oilprices rise $20 a barrel past the $100 mark. These conditions will weigh on thebottom line of industries into 2011.

    While domestic consumption has proved strong over the past decade, phasing

    out of austerity measures, budget consolidation over the coming four years andrising interest rates will take money out of the economy hampering demand. Thefuture for industrial production is largelylinked to its exports sector which is afunction of the world economy. Post crisistwo very different worlds are evident.Firstly those that have been hard hit bydeflating real estate bubbles andgovernment debt crises (USA and Europe)who are struggling to close the output gapcreated in the past few years. Recovery inEurope has been very uneven with Germangrowth roaring ahead of other memberswith Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece continuing to hold back the Eurozone.Inability to devalue a sovereign currency will protract these individualrecoveries. Modest recoveries have also been noted in France and Italy whileQE2 in the USA has seen significant growth in equities with credit flowing albeitat the expense of a $14.2 trillion government debt. The pace of USA privatedeleveraging has decreased to having an effect comparable to an increase incredit growth suggesting some positives going into 2011 but this would notaddress the low inflation environment the USA currently finds itself in [5]. With

    financial markets stabilizing the capacity of OECD members to recover andsustain demand in Germany increases. As time passes a sovereign default in

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    Europe looks less likely with restructuring negotiations for embattled Euronations become more than a possibility, the extent of haircuts on sovereign debtremains to be seen. The second group of countries are those affected by a globaldownturn in demand but have resumed the trend of the early part of the decade.These consist of BRIC nations and other emerging markets (mostly Asian)

    including Latin America. Many of these economies have pegged their currency tothe dollar absorbing the Feds monetary policy with it which is massively

    expansionary. Expansion at this rate for these nations such as China may lead tooverheating to the detriment of Germanys exports. In stark contrast to the firstgroup, here economic slowdowns are being engineered by governments keen onreducing inflation pressures. Overall growth predictions of 4% in global recoveryat inflation rates of c.3% appear enough to sustain exports in the absence of asovereign default or similar event [7].

    Inflation and Consumer ConfidenceEnergy costs and austerity measures introduced have addressed the economicissues and increased inflationlevels with higher disposableincomes stimulating generaldemand. Policy targeting lowinflation growth is not being met.Energy and food commodities haveplayed a significant role also withprices paid by importers for energyproducts increasing by 5.1% in Q4

    2010 pushing on an industrialproducts price increase of 10% from the prior year (8). Petrol and heating costsalso noted increases in Q4 as a cold snap in many parts of the world drove upprices; this is on the back of sustained energy price increases since 2004. Foodcommodities such as wheat have noted similar increases. Month on monthinflation rates to January 2011 have increased by 0.6% indicating an aboveaverage rate of growth. January 2011 inflation rate has been reported over 2%.With ECB mandate requiring a sub 2% annual level to be maintained andGermany being its biggest economythe money markets are now pricingin policy rate increase as soon asApril. The imposition of these rateson struggling Eurozone memberscould crystalize further losses ontheir banking systems and maybeincrease contributions requiredfrom Germany to keep the Eurodream alive. Compared tointernational counterparts, 2010inflation levels appear quite high but, trends suggest, rising. As mentioned, thedistinction between country groupings will determine policy rates globally with

    the USA pricing in rate increases further down the line than Europe and Chinalooking to immediately rapidly rising inflation issues. These rates will in turn

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    affect the ability of domestic enterprise to buy German products. The rateincreases proposed for April (and beyond) and continued budget consolidationwill take money out of the economy, reducing consumption and with it inflation.This will be in contrast to potentially persistent high oil costs as Middle East astroubles look set to continue. A cold winter has reduced oil stocks and food

    commodities note increases as supply cannot keep up with demand. Theduration of the Middle Eastern troubles could determine the trajectory ofinflation into 2011.

    Consumer confidence is at an all-time high having successfully come through thedownturn. Individuals expectations of future income and employment are

    optimistic with spending habitsreflected in private consumption GDP.Similar optimism is evident in the PMIIndex with scores of 60.3 and 58.6 inJanuary and February comfortablyabove the 50 score indicating economicexpansion and optimism amongstpurchasing managers. Surprisingly thisis also the case for the rest of the Eurozone many of whom have experienced amore difficult path to recovery, some who are still struggling.

    Public Finances and BankingMeasures taken to stimulate the demand side of the economy have had anadverse effect on the public finances with a significant increase in public debt.

    Between 2003 and 2007 the government were in the process of consolidationwhich saw expenditure reduced by 4% of GDP, this reduction was partly due toGDP growth but also public sector wagerestraint and public investment restraint.Buoyant economic conditions reducedsocial welfare expenditure bringing areduction in the structural deficit also.This process was reversed by theeconomic crisis which saw the economycontract by 6.5% during the nine monthsfrom April 2008. The package wasintroduced in two parts, firstly November 2008 which introduced reform ofdepreciation charges by companies (6.3bn), increased spending (2bn) and araft of smaller tax reforms aimed at increasing consumption. The January 2009package earmarked 15bn for infrastructure expenditure, increasing taxallowances and reducing income tax (9bn), increased benefits and reducedsocial security contributions for employers and labor programs (5bn), carscrappage scheme (5bn) and other similar minor adjustments which put thetotal pledged and spent to c.65bn, increasing the government deficit to 3.3% ofGDP in 2009. Their effects were almost immediately obvious with the multipliereffect estimated to have boosted 2009 GDP by .5% and 2010 GDP by .2% [5]. As

    the stimulus is phased out and consolidation is again on the table, itsimplementation comes with an aging population, steep pension increases, lower

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    tax take and increasing healthcare costs. During 2007 it was estimated that theimplicit debt embedded in the social insurance system was 185% of then GDP [9],something the economy was bracing itself for during the 2003-2007consolidation.

    Addressing this has led to new fiscal policy whereby the cyclically adjustedfederal (individual state) budgetdeficit cannot exceed .35% of GDP.This will ensure Germanys fiscalposition remains close tostructural balance [5]. Furthermeasures introducingtransparency and clarity will betaken as moves to fall in line withthe European Stability and GrowthPact are taken. Cuts alone will notbalance the books and a proposed broadening of the tax base and phasing out ofconcessions, such as the housing tax concession of 2006 which raised 2bn. TheKiel Institute for the World Economy estimates such measures as having thepotential to raise 41bn in 2012 if all concessions were removed which would

    prove politically unpopular but the removal of five of the large concessions couldgenerate 4.8bn in further revenues and may prove tempting [5].

    The roots of the banking crisis in Germany primarily include; the overexposureof Landesbanks (state owned banks), inadequate capital base of banks and

    regulation and governance issues. Landesbanks exposure came about following

    a prolonged period of phasing out of government guarantees during which timethe banks build up significant liquidity which was quickly used to purchase USoriginated structured debt products. German banking accounts for 7% (c. 230bn)of the global write down of assets with at least one third of these belonging to thestate-owned Landesbanken, a huge figure considering they hold 20% of theGerman banking sector. Fears of another bout of write-downs valued between10-15bn remain with 2010 banking stress tests; while positive with oneGerman bank requiring nationalization, now appear inconclusive as Irish banksthat previously passed the testing have required nationalization. Reform of thebanking sector began with the establishment of two separate bad bank types,one aimed at public and private banks (consolidation model where each bankcould apply to set up an individual bank) with another specifically at publicsector banks. The former bought toxic assets from the banks for a 10% discount,with money supplied by the state. Mark to market losses on the date of transferare calculated with repayment coming over the following 20 years from profits.Losses other than those initially calculated at the date of transfer are borne bythe state. As repayments are contingent on profits, it becomes an indirectliability ensuring a healthier balance sheet. A mixture of accounting uncertaintyand reputational damage has caused limited participation in the schemes whichis worrying as uncertainty remains. While the worst of the economic downturnappears to be over, and those US citizens at the root of the cashflows to these

    structured debt products have weathered the storm to date, there remainssignificant uncertainty about the American economy and with that the cashflows

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    of these products. Taking mark to market losses on these assets rather than anannual impairment charge would introduce more uncertainty in the bankingsector bringing further confidence. While they remain on bank balance sheetsthe requirement for strict capital supervision and stringent stress testing remain.

    OutlookDetermined to set an example to other countries, the German ministry has begunimplementing cuts to reign in its national debt which is approaching 80% of GDP.Federal responsibility for budget deficit reduction will embrace both spendingcuts and revenue increases. This will introduce savings 80bn by the end of2014, a significant reduction in the spending GDP component along with thepotential growth element GDP being held back by huge demographic imbalances.Doubt is casted over workforce suitability with the working age population todecrease by 1% annually from 2020. Ensuring at leasttodays output levels canbe sustained by future generations is fundamental to growth. Policy regarding

    beginning age of working life, retirement age, yearly working hours andimmigration could decide how growth progresses over the coming decades. This,resulting declines in government spending and private consumption, a flatteningof the stock cycle in larger markets and the phasing out of stimuli in majorEuropean countries will see a deceleration of the growth rate into 2011 and2012. The phasing out of government investment and labour subsidies shouldsee increases in unemployment as the economy adjusts further reducingconsumption. Reform and heightened regulation in the banking sector is inprocess, the rejection of Basle III by Germany was unexpected but it is likely acompromise will be made [10]. This will see total capital requirements of

    between 10.5% and 13.5% introduced, coming into effect in 2015 it will reduceannual GDP by an estimated .1% [11]. During 2011, with stability restored it isexpected that a reduction ingovernment guarantees will be noted.The start of 2011 saw German CDSspreads again widen as the extent ofIrelands woes became clear. Germanyscommitment to the Euro project led to119.4bn in relief being pledged (c.4.8% of 2010 GDP). Political pressure isbuilding as German taxpayers voice

    their resentment at paying for the mismanagement of other member economies.A case is currently being taken against the provision of these loans in a Germanconstitutional court; a successful hearing would see financial market turmoilreturn as the likelihood of sovereign default would increase [12]. This and astring of other fundamental finance problems across Europe alongside weakgrowth prospects imply a weaker Euro over 2011 and 2012 which willultimately support German exports. Exports will continue to grow in line withthe world economy (c.4% next year) and growth in Asian markets will increaseas their boom continues. ECB interest rate increases priced into yield curvesbetween now and the end of 2012 will supress price levels with rate levels

    depending largely on energy and food commodity prices.

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    In summary, assuming no sovereign debt bubble bursts, the factors outlinedabove will see Germany grow at a stable but sluggish pace with mild increases inunemployment and sweeping policy changes to address the demographicimbalance.

    ConclusionFrom the key economic indicators outlined above it appears the course of actionstaken to address the economic downturn were appropriate, while noting theconvenient timing to the end of global de-stocking. The decline in growth wasbrought around by an overexposure to the exports sector as the world economyshrank. Measures should be taken to grow other sectors, in particular a poorlyperforming services sector, while maintaining current export levels and ensureexposures such as this are minimized. Barriers remain to achieving this and arelaxing of current overregulation would stimulate competition encouraging

    innovation and entrepreneurship. Demographics are not in the economies favorand immigration policy needs to lend itself further to welcoming high-skilledworkers thus preventing a shortage over the coming decade when the workingage population will start to decline. Promptly addressing current structuralchanges in the labour market can also ensure an adequate supply ofappropriately skilled workers. The short-time subsidies should cease as soon aspossible as in the long run they delay structural change. A charge of some sort toemployers for participation in this scheme would ensure only jobs that have longterm viability are maintained while others become part of the structural changeprocess. In the new two tier economic world, Germany has secured its place asone of the countries moderately affected by the global downturn. The European

    sovereign crisis continues with what was popular support in Germany for theproject now waning. Continued participation in the project will depend on theability of current government to persuade its people it is in fact in their bestinterest to support the project.

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    References[1] Reading, B. 1995, The Fourth Reich. London:Weidenfeld and Nicholson.

    [2] Pounds, D. 1963, The Economic Pattern of Modern Germany. London:Jarrold& Sons Ltd

    [3]Graf, B and Schneider, S, 2011. Focus Germany, With Strong Tailwind into2011. [online],DeutscheBank,Available :http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000267794.pdf, (accessed on 7th March 2011), p5.

    [4] Beyer, A and Vitor, G and Gerberding, G and Issing, O.Opting out of the GreatInflation; German Monetary Policy after the Breakdown of Bretton Woods,[Online] ECB. Available at:http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1020.pdf

    [5] OECD.OECD Economic Surveys:Germany[Online], 2010, OECD, Available at:http://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.ul.ie/ehost/detail?hid=111&sid=5ba17432-8717-43ec-bf23-404337308634%40sessionmgr110&vid=1&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&jid=P88. Accessed on 7th March 2011

    [6]OECD, OECD Global Innovation Forum on Trade, Innovation and

    Growth,[Online], OECD, 2007Available athttp://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/28/43/39078788.pdfAccessed on 8th March 2011

    [7] Hooper, P and Mayer, T and Spence, M.World Outlook;Two TrackRecovery[Online], Deutsche Bank, 2011,Available athttp://www.perspectivegroup.com.au/uploadimages/newsletter_876.pdfAccessed on 7th March 2011.

    [8] Deutsche Bundesbank. Monthly Report; January 2011, [Online] DeutscheBundesbank, Available at:http://www.bundesbank.de/download/volkswirtschaft/monatsberichte/2011/201101mb_en.pdf, Accessed on 7th March 2011

    [9] Moog, S and Hagist, C and Raffelhuschen, B and Vatter, J. Demography-AnInternational Comparison Using Generational Accounting, [Online], 2006,Available at:http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-CESifo_DICE_Report/zs-dice-2009/zs-dice-2009-4/dicereport409-rr1.pdf. Accessed on 8th March 2011

    [10] Boyles,R, 2007,Germany Starts Recovery From 2,000bn Union. TimesOnline,7thJune,Available:http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article2317382.ece, Accessed on 7th March 2011.

    http://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.ul.ie/ehost/detail?hid=111&sid=5ba17432-8717-43ec-bf23-404337308634%40sessionmgr110&vid=1&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&jid=P88http://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.ul.ie/ehost/detail?hid=111&sid=5ba17432-8717-43ec-bf23-404337308634%40sessionmgr110&vid=1&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&jid=P88http://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.ul.ie/ehost/detail?hid=111&sid=5ba17432-8717-43ec-bf23-404337308634%40sessionmgr110&vid=1&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&jid=P88http://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.ul.ie/ehost/detail?hid=111&sid=5ba17432-8717-43ec-bf23-404337308634%40sessionmgr110&vid=1&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&jid=P88http://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.ul.ie/ehost/detail?hid=111&sid=5ba17432-8717-43ec-bf23-404337308634%40sessionmgr110&vid=1&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&jid=P88http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/28/43/39078788.pdfhttp://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/28/43/39078788.pdfhttp://www.perspectivegroup.com.au/uploadimages/newsletter_876.pdfhttp://www.perspectivegroup.com.au/uploadimages/newsletter_876.pdfhttp://www.bundesbank.de/download/volkswirtschaft/monatsberichte/2011/201101mb_en.pdfhttp://www.bundesbank.de/download/volkswirtschaft/monatsberichte/2011/201101mb_en.pdfhttp://www.bundesbank.de/download/volkswirtschaft/monatsberichte/2011/201101mb_en.pdfhttp://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-CESifo_DICE_Report/zs-dice-2009/zs-dice-2009-4/dicereport409-rr1.pdfhttp://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-CESifo_DICE_Report/zs-dice-2009/zs-dice-2009-4/dicereport409-rr1.pdfhttp://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-CESifo_DICE_Report/zs-dice-2009/zs-dice-2009-4/dicereport409-rr1.pdfhttp://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-CESifo_DICE_Report/zs-dice-2009/zs-dice-2009-4/dicereport409-rr1.pdfhttp://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-CESifo_DICE_Report/zs-dice-2009/zs-dice-2009-4/dicereport409-rr1.pdfhttp://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-CESifo_DICE_Report/zs-dice-2009/zs-dice-2009-4/dicereport409-rr1.pdfhttp://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-CESifo_DICE_Report/zs-dice-2009/zs-dice-2009-4/dicereport409-rr1.pdfhttp://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-CESifo_DICE_Report/zs-dice-2009/zs-dice-2009-4/dicereport409-rr1.pdfhttp://www.bundesbank.de/download/volkswirtschaft/monatsberichte/2011/201101mb_en.pdfhttp://www.bundesbank.de/download/volkswirtschaft/monatsberichte/2011/201101mb_en.pdfhttp://www.perspectivegroup.com.au/uploadimages/newsletter_876.pdfhttp://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/28/43/39078788.pdfhttp://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.ul.ie/ehost/detail?hid=111&sid=5ba17432-8717-43ec-bf23-404337308634%40sessionmgr110&vid=1&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&jid=P88http://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.ul.ie/ehost/detail?hid=111&sid=5ba17432-8717-43ec-bf23-404337308634%40sessionmgr110&vid=1&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&jid=P88http://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.ul.ie/ehost/detail?hid=111&sid=5ba17432-8717-43ec-bf23-404337308634%40sessionmgr110&vid=1&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&jid=P88http://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.ul.ie/ehost/detail?hid=111&sid=5ba17432-8717-43ec-bf23-404337308634%40sessionmgr110&vid=1&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&jid=P88
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    [11] Slovik, P. and B. Cournde, Macroeconomic Impact of Basel III[Online],OECD Economics Department, 2011. Available athttp://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/content/workingpaper/5kghwnhkkjs8-en. Accessed on 10th March2011

    [12] The Economist Intelligence Unit. Germany : Country Profile. The EconomistIntelligence Unit, [Online], Economist Intelligence Unit, Available at:http://web.ebscohost.com.proxy.lib.ul.ie/ehost/detail?hid=111&sid=19b31f8a-888c-4bcc-8a6c-3ddfdb33fd33%40sessionmgr110&vid=1&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&jid=5TK, Accessed on 7th March 2011

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