leverging modeling & simulation to inform program … · 2020. 3. 13. · jsf-joint-negotiation...

LEVERGING MODELING & SIMULATION TO INFORM

PROGRAM DECISION MAKING

Mr. James Kelly and Mr. Justin Woulfe

F-35 Multi-Mission Capability

Critical to U.S. and Allied Air Dominance for the Next 50 Years

+ +Maneuver at Will Throughout Battlespace Provides Superb Battlespace Awareness Makes Everyone in Battlespace Smarter

Survivable Against World’s Most Sophisticated Threats Now and in the Future

• Stealth◦ Ability to go undetected

Destroy Targets Deep in Enemy Territory

Protect Ground Troops Engaged in Combat

“Knock Down the Door” for Other Platforms

Clear the Skies of Enemy Aircraft

Strategic Attack Close Air Support Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses

Air Superiority

• Sensor Fusion◦ Combine many sources of info

• Interoperability◦ Pass vital information and data to

legacy platforms

What’s Different From Legacy Aircraft

F-35 Weapon System Overview

F-35 Program More than Just the Aircraft

F-35AAir Force - 1763

F-35BMarine Corps - 353

F-35CNavy - 273 & Marine Corps - 67

Internal Gun Boom Refueling

1 Program / 3 Variants / 15 Customers / 3,359 AircraftBig, Complicated Program with Significant Allied Participation

StrongerGear & Tailhook

Wingfold & Ailerons

Larger Wing &Tail Area

Basket Refueling

Centerline Gun Pod

3-Bearing Swivel Nozzle

Lift Fan

Roll Posts

Basket Refueling

Conventional Take-off & Landing Short Take-off Vertical Landing Aircraft Carrier Variant

Partners - 168Partners - 464

Air Vehicle

Operational Flight

Program

JSF Reprogram-

mingEnterprise

MissionData File

Full Mission Simulators Threat

DatabaseOff-board Mission Support

FMS – 166*

Autonomic Logistics

InformationSystem

Centerline Gun Pod

* Japan’s latest National Defense Program Guidelines states that Japan will procure an additional 105 F-35s over the next 10+ years. MOU signing Fall 2019; 63 F-35As and 42 F-35Bs, taking the overall total to 147

Performance Modeling Results

• Only 25 of 68 Depot Workloads Established- 28 of 68 By Dec 2018- 6 at <90 Day RCT (Full Demand Repair Rate)

• Extremely high Repair Cycle Time (RCT)1

- Lack of Repair Materiel- Repair Manuals- Equipment, Tooling, & Training

• Resulting in 3,900+ repair parts in backlog

Current State RCT at 180 Days

Future State RCT at 60 Days

NMCM

NMCS

MC

1 RCT = Admin disposition, aircraft removal, shipping, repair, back on shelf

NMCM

NMCS

MC

• Achieve Full Demand Repair Rate- 68 of 68 at <60 Days- No Backlog; Natural Work in Progress- Lack of Repair Materiel- Repair Manuals- Equipment, Tooling, & Training

• OEM Repair – PBLs & MRAs

• 90-Day RCT = 11% increase in MC• 60-Day RCT = 17% increase in MC

• Memorandum from Secretary of Defense, dated 17 Sept 2018, directs a 80% Mission Capable (MC) rate for F-35 by 30 Sept 2019.

• F-35 Enterprise is utilizing a 4 phased approach:• Phase 1: Combat Coded 80% MC; Training 15-18 UTE (monthly) Sept 2019• Phase 2: Combat Coded 80% MC; Improve Training 60% MC Feb 2020• Phase 3: All LRIP 6+ Aircraft to 80% MC Jun 2020• Phase 4: Total Fleet 80% MC Sept 2020

• Current Program spares are funded to a 20% NMCS• 80% MC would require an investment in spares beyond the PBR issue team.

• NMCM is currently ~20%. A reduction in maintenance task length is needed.

• Flying 20% fewer hours reduces cost and allows the program to achieve an 80% MC. Simulator development is key.

F-35 Path to 80% Mission Capable – US Services

Fleet Cumulative MC to Date01 May - 31 Sep 2018

CTOL=F-35ASTOVL=F-35BCV=F-35C

Lockheed Martin • Airframe system configurations (39)• Airframe components Reliability by LCN

(MFHBR/MFHBME/MFHBCF)• Scheduled Inspections/events (PM)• Maintainability by LCN (CM MTTR, PM

MTTR)• Reliability Growth Curves• Maintainability Learning Curves• Airframe components PLT, Condemnation

Rate, DRCT/RTAT

Pratt & Whitney

Rolls-Royce

• Propulsion system configurations (3)• Propulsion Components Reliability by LCN• Maintainability by LCN (CM MTTR) • PLT, DRCT

F-35 Joint Program Office

• DD250 Delivery dates• Depot Flow Plan (modification schedule)

A/C: Aircraft; CM: Corrective Maintenance; DRCT: Depot Repair Cycle Time; LCN: Logistics Control Number; MFHBME: Mean Flight Hours between Maintenance Event; MFHBR: Mean Flight Hour Between Removal; MFHBCF: Mean Flight Hour Between Critical Failure; MTTR: Mean Time To Repair; PLT: Procurement Lead Time;

PM: Preventive Maintenance; RTAT: Repair Turn Around Time;

Complex Analysis Requires Consolidating Multiple Data Sources

Services/ Partners

• Aircraft location• Aircraft utilization• Operational Profiles (Average Sortie

Durations, # of A/C, abort policy…) • Flying Window• Maintenance window

SIMLOX

Course of Action 1: Accelerate Depot Standup Dates

JPO plans most repair lines to be transitioned to

Depots by 2021

Course of Action 2: Optimize Spares to Actual DRCTs and PLTsC/E-Curve Diagram

0.0E9 0.5E9 1.0E9

Life Support Cost

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00Availability

JPO_ACE_FY25_BlendedRates_actualDRCT with Assets

JPO_ACE_FY25_BlendedRates_defaultDRCT with Assets

226340699

226340699 226340699

0.9881 0.9881

A=0.9881

LSC=226340699

Point: 24 Case: JPO_ACE_FY25_BlendedRates_defaultDRCT with Assets

A=0.9881 LSC=226340699 Point: 24 Case: JPO_ACE_FY25_BlendedRates_defaultDRCT with Assets

Unique P/N Total Qty CostFY19 default DRCT 2069 63355 $ 907,610,231 FY19 actual DRCT 2069 66994 $ 1,256,863,286 FY20 default DRCT 2069 73389 $ 392,361,085 FY20 actual DRCT 2069 76955 $ 394,637,744 FY21 default DRCT 2069 82950 $ 367,845,089 FY21 actual DRCT 2069 87008 $ 423,229,833 FY22 default DRCT 2069 89790 $ 271,041,246 FY22 actual DRCT 2069 94265 $ 311,981,530 FY23 default DRCT 2069 98336 $ 330,545,742 FY23 actual DRCT 2069 103169 $ 378,522,536 FY24 default DRCT 2069 105834 $ 291,494,343 FY24 actual DRCT 2069 111299 $ 349,705,636 FY25 default DRCT 2069 113722 $ 316,682,602 FY25 actual DRCT 2069 119448 $ 356,936,556

TOTAL default DRCT $ 2,877,580,338 TOTAL actual DRCT $ 3,471,877,121 % Increase 21%

Fleet Readiness-By Tail Number Failure Mode Model

System States Rate –Baseline

49.62 %

31.16 %3.73 %

12.91 %

Total over all Systems

Total over all Units

JSF-Joint-Negotiation Model-18-19-v6.WSPD.Utilization.CollectAVA

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

Num

be

r o

f S

yste

ms

On Mission

Ready

Awaiting Items

Active PM

Active Repair

System StatesUnits: Total, Systems: Total

49.62 %

31.16 %3.73 %

12.91 %




0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %N

umb

er

of

Sys

tem

s

On Mission

Ready

Awaiting Items

Active PM

Active Repair


NMCS-MC

MISSION CAPABLE

NMCM-MC

5.71 %

43.5

5 %

32.6

9 %

3.40 %

12.26 %

5.90 %

46.4

8 %

28.62 %

3.67 %

12.84 %

JSF

-Jo

int-

...

JSF

-Jo

int-

...

Total over selected UnitsTotal over all Systems

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

Num

ber

of S

yste

ms

On Mission

Mission Assigned

Ready

Awaiting Items

Awaiting Resources

Active PM

Active Repair

System StatesUnits: AMENDOLA - CTOL; BEAUFORT - STOVL; BURLINGTON - CTOL; CHEONGU - CTOL; ..., Systems: Total

++

+

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1200

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Time [months]

Num

ber

of S

yste

ms

Active Repair

Active PM

Awaiting Resources

Awaiting Items

Ready

Mission Assigned

On Mission

System States

Units: Total, Systems: AF1; AF2; AF3; AF4; AL2; AL3; AL4; AM2; AM3; AM4; AN4; AP4; AS3; AS4...

Baseline production, baseline depot performance, baseline spares package

Mission Capability Rate – Excursion 1

49.62 %

31.16 %3.73 %

12.91 %




0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

Num

be

r o

f S

yste

ms

On Mission

Ready

Awaiting Items

Active PM

Active Repair


49.62 %

31.16 %3.73 %

12.91 %




0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %N

umb

er

of

Sys

tem

s

On Mission

Ready

Awaiting Items

Active PM

Active Repair


NMCS-MC

MISSION CAPABLE

NMCM-MC

5.71 %

43.5

5 %

32.6

9 %

3.40 %

12.26 %

5.90 %

46.4

8 %

28.62 %

3.67 %

12.84 %

JSF

-Jo

int-

...

JSF

-Jo

int-

...


0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

Num

ber

of S

yste

ms

On Mission

Mission Assigned

Ready

Awaiting Items

Awaiting Resources

Active PM

Active Repair


++

+

Baseline production with depot stand-up and baseline spares package

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1200

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Time [months]

Num

ber

of S

yste

ms

Active Repair

Active PM

Awaiting Resources

Awaiting Items

Ready

Mission Assigned

On Mission

System States

Units: Total, Systems: AF1; AF2; AF3; AF4; AL2; AL3; AL4; AM2; AM3; AM4; AN4; AP4; AS3; AS4...

Mission Capability Rate - Excursion 2

49.62 %

31.16 %3.73 %

12.91 %




0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

Num

be

r o

f S

yste

ms

On Mission

Ready

Awaiting Items

Active PM

Active Repair


49.62 %

31.16 %3.73 %

12.91 %




0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %N

umb

er

of

Sys

tem

s

On Mission

Ready

Awaiting Items

Active PM

Active Repair


NMCS-MC

MISSION CAPABLE

NMCM-MC

5.71 %

43.5

5 %

32.6

9 %

3.40 %

12.26 %

5.90 %

46.4

8 %

28.62 %

3.67 %

12.84 %

JSF

-Jo

int-

...

JSF

-Jo

int-

...


0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

Num

ber

of S

yste

ms

On Mission

Mission Assigned

Ready

Awaiting Items

Awaiting Resources

Active PM

Active Repair


++

+

Baseline production with depot stand-up and spares package based on CAPE DRCTs

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1200

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Time [months]

Num

ber

of S

yste

ms

Active Repair

Active PM

Awaiting Resources

Awaiting Items

Ready

Mission Assigned

On Mission

System States

Units: Total, Systems: Total

Detailed Cost Analysis

Current Path: System States over the FYDP

Jan

2023

Jan

2021

Jan

2022

Jan

2019

Jan

2020

Jan

2024

Jan

2025

49.62 %

31.16 %3.73 %

12.91 %




0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

Num

be

r o

f S

yste

ms

On Mission

Ready

Awaiting Items

Active PM

Active Repair


49.62 %

31.16 %3.73 %

12.91 %




0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

Num

be

r o

f S

yste

ms

On Mission

Ready

Awaiting Items

Active PM

Active Repair


NMCS-MC

MISSION CAPABLE

NMCM-MC

5.71 %

43.5

5 %

32.6

9 %

3.40 %

12.26 %

5.90 %

46.4

8 %

28.62 %

3.67 %

12.84 %

JSF

-Jo

int-

...

JSF

-Jo

int-

...


0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

Num

ber

of S

yste

ms

On Mission

Mission Assigned

Ready

Awaiting Items

Awaiting Resources

Active PM

Active Repair


+

+

+

Baseline production with depot stand-up and additional spares from PBR issue team ($482M)

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1200

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Time [months]

Num

ber

of S

yste

ms

Active Repair

Active PM

Awaiting Resources

Awaiting Items

Ready

Mission Assigned

On Mission

System States


System States in %

Jan

2023

Jan

2021

Jan

2022

Jan

2019

Jan

2020

Jan

2024

Jan

2025

49.62 %

31.16 %3.73 %

12.91 %




0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

Num

be

r o

f S

yste

ms

On Mission

Ready

Awaiting Items

Active PM

Active Repair


49.62 %

31.16 %3.73 %

12.91 %




0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

Num

be

r o

f S

yste

ms

On Mission

Ready

Awaiting Items

Active PM

Active Repair


NMCS-MC

MISSION CAPABLE

NMCM-MC

5.71 %

43.5

5 %

32.6

9 %

3.40 %

12.26 %

5.90 %

46.4

8 %

28.62 %

3.67 %

12.84 %

JSF

-Jo

int-

...

JSF

-Jo

int-

...


0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

Num

ber

of S

yste

ms

On Mission

Mission Assigned

Ready

Awaiting Items

Awaiting Resources

Active PM

Active Repair


++

+


30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1200 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

Time [months]

Num

ber o

f Sys

tem

s Active Repair

Active PM

Awaiting Resources

Awaiting Items

Ready

Mission Assigned

On Mission

System States


30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1200 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

Time [months]

Num

ber o

f Sys

tem

s

Available

Lower Percentile (85.0 %)

Number of Systems Available


Current Path Mission Capability Rates in %

Jan

2023

Jan

2021

Jan

2022

Jan

2019

Jan

2020

Jan

2024

Jan

2025


leverging modeling & simulation to inform program … · 2020. 3. 13. · jsf-joint-negotiation...

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