LeveragingTechnologyandConnectivitytoSpurGrowthinASEAN[DocumentSubtitle]

ShiPengYiPenny

HwaChongInstitution(College)

 

Executive Summary

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (IR) is taking ASEAN countries by storm. The region’s

digital economy is booming, cross-border e-commerce markets are growing rapidly, and the

technological start-up scene is extremely vibrant.

Singapore, as the chair of ASEAN in 2018, is focusing on setting the foundation for ASEAN

to realise its vision of a robust and integrated digital economy. Hence, it’s timely and critical

to pose these questions: Can ASEAN countries band together to ride the waves of the

Fourth IR, and succeed in building an integrated digital economy? What are the implications

of the Fourth IR on Singaporean enterprises and its workers? How should we respond?

In Section 1, the essay explores the role of technology in achieving growth in ASEAN

through an investigation into the associated opportunities and challenges. The plethora of

opportunities waiting to be harnessed promises to propel regional growth to new heights:

increasing wealth from financial inclusion, overcoming of geographical constraints and

empowerment of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). However, there are

formidable challenges to be overcome: technological disruption, the growing digital divide,

and a heightened vulnerability to cyber-attacks.

In Section 2, I recommend policies that aims to address these opportunities and challenges

to facilitate technology and disruption-led growth in the region. They will be categorised into

national policies and pan-ASEAN policies, the latter of which requires concerted,

collaborative effort between all ASEAN states.

As the classic proverb goes, “If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go

together.” As one of the most competitive economies in the world, Singapore is in good

position to ride on the waves of the Fourth IR. However, we need to rally all ASEAN member

states to unite and with concerted efforts, establish an integrated and successful digital

economy, to truly attain inclusive and sustainable growth for the whole region.

(Word Count: 300 words)

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary 1

Table of Contents 2

Introduction: ASEAN 4.0 - Leveraging Technology and Connectivity to Spur Growth 3

I: Role of Technology, Disruption, and Connectivity in Achieving Growth 6 1.1: Opportunities to be Harnessed 6

1.1.1 Financial Inclusion and Wealth Creation 6 1.1.2 Overcoming geographical constraints and connecting the unconnected 7 1.1.3 Empowering Local SMEs 7

1.2 Challenges to be Overcome 8 1.1.1 Digital Disruption 8 1.2.2 The ‘Digital Divide’: Lacklustre and Uneven Access to Digital Infrastructure 8 1.2.3: Heightened Vulnerability to Cyber-attacks 9

II: Policies that Support Technology and Disruption-led Growth across ASEAN 12 2.1 National Policies 12

2.1.1 Regionalisation of SMEs 12 2.1.2 Mandatory Entrepreneurship Education 14

2.2 Pan-ASEAN Policies 15 2.1.1 Harmonisation of Business Environments (to allow SMEs to regionalise easily) (ADB) 15 2.2.2 Interoperability of E-payment Platforms 15 2.2.3 Regional Innovation Incubators 16 2.2.4 Common Cybersecurity Framework 17

Conclusion: Reconfiguring Growth — Towards a Sustainable and Inclusive Economy18

References 20

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Introduction: ASEAN 4.0 - Leveraging Technology and Connectivity

to Spur Growth

Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) celebrated its 50th anniversary in

2017, a landmark signalling a half-century of extraordinary growth for the regional bloc.

Founded by five states in an age of turmoil, ASEAN has since then expanded to include ten

countries in the region , its GDP grew by over 125 times and its share of the world GDP 1

doubled (AEC, 2017) (Figure 1). As a bloc, ASEAN boasts the world's seventh-largest 2

economy, and is projected to become the fifth-largest by 2020 (Cheong, 2018).

Figure 1: ASEAN’s GDP (US$ billion at current prices) 1967-2016 (ASEAN Secretariat, 3

2017)

1 Established in 1967 by founding Member States Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, the five other countries joined later in various years: Brunei Darussalam joined in 1984, Vietnam in 1995, Lao PDR and Myanmar in 1997, and Cambodia in 1999, making up the 10 Member States of ASEAN today. 2 ASEAN Member States’ combined GDP (US$ at current prices) increased from 23 million in 1967 to 2551 million in 2016. Its share of World GDP increase from 3.3% in 1967 to 6.2% in 2016. (AEC, 2017) 3 The data is aggregated based on the accession dates of its Member States, i.e. 1967: ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Phillipines, Singapore, Thailand); 1984-1994: ASEAN-6 (plus Brunei Darussalam); 1995-1996: ASEAN-7 (plus Viet Nam); 1997-1998: ASEAN-9 (plus Myanmar and Lao PDR); 1999-2016: ASEAN-10 (plus Cambodia) (ASEAN Secretariat, 2017)

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While acknowledging the success of ASEAN thus far, this essay projects into the future. The

Fourth Industrial Revolution (IR) is already making unprecedented waves globally and its 4

impacts can be keenly felt in the region, with emerging technologies causing disruptions

across established industries. (Figure 2)

Figure 2: 40 key and emerging technologies for the future (OECD Science, Technology and 5

Innovation Outlook, 2016)

Amidst this upheaval, ASEAN needs to continually reinvent itself to respond to the changes

brought along by the Fourth IR or risk falling into irrelevance and stagnation. As the chair of

4 Industry 4.0, also known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution, is a period of profound, transformative change powered by a diverse range of breakthrough technologies in many aspects, including the digital (eg. artificial intelligence and blockchain), physical (eg. additive manufacturing and development of advanced materials) and biological (eg. bio-engineering and neurotechnologies). This is causing an unprecedented depth and breadth of change across all aspects of human societies, such as our economic systems, occupations, social structures and even systems of governance.

5 This is the result of a technology foresight exercise carried out by the European Commission between 2012-2015 in Canada, Finland, Germany, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom. The result provides a valuable perspective on the possible catalysts of economic, industrial and social change in the short- to medium-term (i.e. 10-15 years). (OECD, 2016)

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ASEAN in 2018, Singapore has aptly chosen “Resilience and Innovation” as the theme, with

a particular focus on “harness(ing) opportunities and manag(ing) challenges from disruptive

digital technologies”. (ASEAN, 2018)

This essay aims to address the question of “Leveraging Technology and Connectivity to

Spur Growth in ASEAN”. In Section 1, I dissect how technology poses unique opportunities

and challenges to the region. Subsequently in Section 2, I suggest policies that would

facilitate technology and disruption-led growth across ASEAN, with a particular focus placed

on the role that Singapore-based enterprises and workers can play.

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I: Role of Technology, Disruption, and Connectivity in Achieving

Growth

Amidst a backdrop of global conflicts and volatility, ASEAN has been remarkable in

achieving growth that consistently outpaces that of the global average in the past decade 6

(SIIA, 2017). However, with the upheaval brought about by the Fourth IR, what lies ahead is

more uncertain. Technology is a double-edged sword — it both catalyses and hinders

growth as it exerts its influence on the region and beyond.

1.1: Opportunities to be Harnessed

1.1.1 Financial Inclusion and Wealth Creation

Financial technology (fintech) is boosting access to financial services in ASEAN. In Vietnam,

the Philippines and Myanmar, only less than ⅓ of the population has a bank account (ADB,

2017), showing the inadequacy of traditional banking in addressing the population’s need for

financial services. Mobile devices and internet access can spread simple banking, insurance

and payment services to these underserved populations in ASEAN, hence boosting financial

inclusion.

Financial inclusion propels economic growth — research estimates that addressing financial

exclusion could boost GDP by 9-14% in the region, even reaching a high of 32% in

Cambodia.

6 After the 2008 global financial crisis, ASEAN economies have continued to grow at an average of around 5% per year, outperforming global rates of around 2%. (World Bank, 2017) In 2016, despite volatility in the financial markets and heightened uncertainty due to the US elections, ASEAN economies grew at 4.6%, much higher than the average global growth rate of 1.2%. (Focus Economics, 2017) The growth rate is projected to remain resilient and hit 3-8% over the next 5 years. (SBR, 2017)

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1.1.2 Overcoming geographical constraints and connecting the unconnected

Archipelagic ASEAN countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia have long struggled

with the lack of physical connectivity between their islands, hindering economic

development. Also, countries with large rural populations have faced challenges in

developing basic infrastructure in the remote areas. For example, in Cambodia and

Myanmar, only around 50% of the population has access to electricity (ADB, 2017).

Technology can help to overcome many of such geographical constraints as it opens up

possibilities for new frameworks for distribution of services. Renewable energy technologies

allow electricity to be generated in local villages instead of in centralised power plants, and

3D printing technology enables localised manufacturing with the raw materials available,

providing digital connectivity and trading between these communities and the outside world

without having to establish prior physical connectivity.

1.1.3 Empowering Local SMEs

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) form the mainstay of ASEAN economies, accounting

for 89% to 99% of all businesses within ASEAN and providing between 52% and 97% of

jobs in member countries (ADB, 2017). SMEs play a large role in Singapore’s economy

particularly, forming 99% of its businesses and providing two-third of its job, contributing to

about half of total GDP (Ministry of Communications and Information, 2017).

The Fourth IR empowers SMEs by allowing them access to large regional markets beyond

their limited home markets, through the advent of e-commerce and online service platforms.

Distributed ledger technologies like Blockchain allow SMEs to interact and transact in a

trusted environment despite not having met in reality, thus facilitating more

micro-transactions.

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The room for e-commerce expansion in ASEAN is significant — currently the total size of

e-commerce market in ASEAN is $9 billion, translating to $14 per person. In China, the

equivalent value is $426 billion and $327 per person., illustrating the potential for further

expansion (ADB, 2017).

1.2 Challenges to be Overcome

1.1.1 Digital Disruption

The Fourth IR is displacing human workers out of their jobs at an alarmingly accelerating

rate. Low-skilled, repetitive occupations are especially threatened by automation . However, 7

the services industry is not immune, as rapidly advancing technologies in A.I. and robotics

will cause major disruptions in traditionally ‘human-centred’ industries, such as the

business-process outsourcing in Philippines. (AEC, 2017)

This will have major impact on the economies of ASEAN countries. Faced with rising

working-age population and declining jobs, unemployment rates will soar. This plausibly

escalates into socio-political unrest which can undermine peace and political stability in the

region, further undermining growth prospects.

1.2.2 The ‘Digital Divide’: Lacklustre and Uneven Access to Digital Infrastructure

The ‘digital divide’ exists between ASEAN countries and within individual countries, between

large and small companies. Between developed and developing economies, there are large

variations in terms of degree of uptake of digital technology, with percentage of population

with internet access ranging from below 20% to more than 80% . (Figure 3) 8

7 For example, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) predicts that 85% of the workers in the Vietnamese textile and garment industry will be replaced by robots over the next two decades. (

8 For example, in terms of the percentage of population with Internet access, the figure is 80% in Singapore, over 70% in Malaysia and Brunei, and still below 20% in Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Cambodia. (AEC, 2017)

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Figure 3: Fixed internet broadband subscriptions, per 1000 inhabitants, 2015 (AEC, 2017)

In another manifestation of the ‘digital divide’’, a sizable gap exists between small and large

firms in terms of internet access, regardless of the country’s level of economic development.

(OECD, 2016) A larger proportion of large firms runs websites and has online sale platforms

than small firms, entrenching their size and monopoly over markets.

The lack of access to the digital economy causes many ASEAN SMEs to only be able to

operate in small domestic markets, preventing them from reaping cost savings from

economies of scale and the gains of network effects.

1.2.3: Heightened Vulnerability to Cyber-attacks

Increased digital connectivity brings about heightened capacity for disruption and destruction

from cyberattacks. Cybercrimes pose as the largest threat to technology, threatening to

offset the benefits that technological advances bring and beset the growth of the fledgling

e-commerce sector.

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Currently, ASEAN has yet to develop a coherent framework to enforce cybersecurity in the

region and it is significantly underspending compared to the global average. In 2017, ASEAN

collectively spent 0.06% of its GDP on cybersecurity, while the global average was more

than double at 0.13%. (Figure 4) Additionally, individual countries’ policies are patchy and

uneven, showing wide variations (A.T. Kearney, 2018). (Figure 5)

Figure 4: Infographic benchmarking ASEAN countries’ level of spending on cybersecurity

against other countries and global averages (A.T. Kearney, 2018)

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Figure 5: Infographic showing wide variations in cybersecurity policies across ASEAN (A.T.

Kearney, 2018)

ASEAN companies face a potential loss of $750 billion from cyberattacks, and could

significantly affect investors’ long-term confidence in the region (A.T. Kearney, 2018). Major

cyber security breaches have already occurred at major companies such as HBO and

SONY, and ransomware attacks have crippled critical infrastructure in cities and major

corporations , causing weighty economic losses amounting up to $4 billion. (CBS, 2017) 9

9 WannaCry was a ransomware cryptoworm targeting computers running the Microsoft Windows operating system, triggering a global cyberattack in May 2017 with variants of the virus emerged in more than 150 countries. Organisations who were paralysed and debilitated by the cyberattack include Britain's hospital network and Germany's national railway system.

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II: Policies that Support Technology and Disruption-led Growth

across ASEAN

In exploring the role that Singapore, and Singapore-based enterprises and workers, can

assume in leading growth across ASEAN, I will categorise my suggestions according its

scope of implementation — of those pertaining to Singapore only (2.1: National Policies) or

requiring concerted ASEAN-wide efforts in implementation (2.2 Pan-ASEAN Policies).

2.1 National Policies

2.1.1 Regionalisation of SMEs

With a limited domestic market, tightening domestic labour policies, and quickening GDP

growth rates in neighbouring ASEAN countries, Singaporean SMEs need to expand abroad

to sustain its growth. However, many SMEs face an array of challenges preventing them

from doing so, such as lack of access to capital, information and financial services, and

limited access to markets beyond local ones . 10

To actively encourage Singapore SMEs to expand into regional markets, Singapore has

been offering incentives such as tax exemptions and grants , however with 11

less-than-optimal results. To ramp up on its push for regionalisation, Singapore should

explore more innovative avenues to help SMEs:

10 According to the SME Development Survey by DP Info conducted in November 2017, about 35% of SMEs cited finance-related challenges as a current problem, an increase of more than 13 percentage points from the previous year and the highest since the survey began tracking the issue in 2011. Currency volatility, rigid competition and challenges in securing business partners are quipped as the largest obstacles preventing SMEs from venturing overseas (SBF, 2017).

11 Under the Start-up Tax Incentives scheme, start-ups that fulfill qualifying conditions are exempted from paying tax on the first $100,000 of chargeable income for any of the first 3 years of tax assessment, with also a 50% tax exemption on the next $200,000 for each of the first three consecutive years. A separate scheme, the Capability Development Grant (CDG) aims to help SMEs to scale up business capabilities and ensure business sustainability. The grant subsidies up to 70% of project costs in consultancy, training, certification and equipment, etc. (SME Centre, 2018).

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1) More targeted support for SMEs to take advantage of the technological

advancements of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. For example, the use of cloud

technology improves businesses’ efficiency and lowers its costs of production

significantly. E-commerce and online marketplaces (eg. Qoo10, Lazada and Shopee)

connect SMEs and customers in the region and facilitate micro-transactions.

With an overview of the gaps in local workforce across sectors, the Government can

create a team of regional and local workforce that can provide support in back-office

functions to SMEs . This will help SMEs to scale up quickly and be in a better 12

financial position to regionalise.

2) Establish localised support platforms to connect SMEs and larger enterprises abroad

to offer mutual support . The mind-boggling diversity of ASEAN business 13

environments poses as a challenge for SMEs accustomed to operating in domestic

market with clearly-defined laws and transparent regulations. Across and within

industries, established enterprises already settled into regional markets can act as

‘mentors’ to newer entrants to help them familiarise with the local contexts.

The platform also facilitates inter- and intra-sector collaborations between SMEs

abroad, enabling joint ventures and risk-sharing which can catalyse more R&D and

innovation efforts . 14

12 This is suggested by former MAS and GIC official Teh Kok Peng, who said that “[m]any small companies and start-ups consist of mostly front-end people, but someone needs to take care of things like HR, IT, and other back-office functions." and the government is in the best position to do so (Straits Times, 2018).

13 This is proposed by Minister Ong Ye Kung in his speech at the Singapore International Chamber of Commerce (SICC) Awards gala dinner in May 2018. He noted that “beyond competing, we need to collaborate across companies and organisations, and learn to hunt in a pack when we venture overseas." (Straits Times, 2018)

14 SICC chairman Jonathan Asherson suggests that collaboration is often the quickest way for businesses of all sizes and sectors to innovate (Straits Times, 2018).

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2.1.2 Mandatory Entrepreneurship Education

A report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) cites that Singapore economy "continues to

lag behind the world's most prolific innovation powerhouses" (WEF, 2017), signalling

deficiencies in Singapore’s entrepreneurship scene. Its root cause can possibly be traced to

our education system.

Currently, entrepreneurship education is only offered in selective secondary and

post-secondary institutions, being a ‘niche’ subject that is only incidentally offered. For

example, only 6 out of 150 Secondary Schools in Singapore offer “Business &

Entrepreneurship” under its Applied Learning Programme. (MOE, 2018)

The Government can incorporate entrepreneurship education as part of the mandatory

curriculum across all schools, perhaps introducing it as a module for all Upper Secondary

students. It can introduce essential elements of entrepreneurship such as creative

problem-solving and design thinking. Schools can also provide support for students who are

budding entrepreneurs with business ideas, such as linking them up to alumni mentors or

providing seed fund for them . 15

While not all Singaporeans will become an entrepreneur, arming Singaporeans with an

entrepreneurial mindset help facilitate innovation across all sectors and better equip them to

ride the waves of the Fourth IR, combatting disruption caused by automation and digitisation.

15 For example, Ngee Ann Polytechnic launched an entrepreneur mentorship programme where entrepreneurs-in-residence meet students to give advice or discuss business ideas.

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2.2 Pan-ASEAN Policies

2.1.1 Harmonisation of Business Environments (to allow SMEs to regionalise easily) (ADB)

The dissonance in regulatory and business environments is a key non-tariff barrier hindering

the next phase of ASEAN’s economic integration (see Section 1.1.1). For instance, the

difference in taxation laws between ASEAN states has led to high compliance costs, and

difficulties for businesses to navigate between different taxation rules.

By implementing tax harmonisation, tax rules and rates will be made more uniform across

ASEAN, simplifying regionalisation efforts of businesses and encourages cross-border

business growth. Also, this would encourage foreign investors to perceive ASEAN as a

single growth market, rather than a collection of individual countries, attracting more foreign

investments. This would position ASEAN as a preferred integrated economic entity on the

global stage.

2.2.2 Interoperability of E-payment Platforms

As the world’s fastest growing internet region, e-commerce is expected to grow significantly

in ASEAN, driven by the rapid increase in usage of smartphones and internet access . 16

Smartphone access contributes to over half of retail website online traffic, and two-third of

users access the internet through their smartphones (SIIA, 2017).

ASEAN needs to be integrated in its digital economy to fully ride on the benefits that are

offered by this digital bandwagon. A single e-payment platform will facilitate this integration,

as this enables e-commerce platforms to seamlessly operate online transactions across

state boundaries. This also benefit regional businesses and consumers as it facilitates

cross-border business transactions to take place more seamlessly, saving costs and time

16 According to a study by Google and Temasek in 2017, Southeast Asia is the world’s fastest growing internet region with an existing internet base of 260 million, which will grow to 480 million by 2020. Its e-commerce market size is expected to multiply by 16 times from US$5.5 billion in 2015 to US$88 billion in 2025.

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from using intermediary financial services providers. Figure 6 shows some of the e-payment

options currently available in Singapore.

Figure 6: Some e-payment options available in Singapore (FinTech News Singapore, 2018)

As the ASEAN chair this year, Singapore can lead the region in the development of the

ASEAN-wide e-payment platform. Singapore is already undergoing talks with Thailand to

connect their national e-payment systems PayNow and PromptPay. Also, under the ASEAN

Financial Innovation Network (AFIN) jointly signed by MAS and the World Bank, fintech

innovation will be encouraged, accelerating the realisation of this vision.

2.2.3 Regional Innovation Incubators

Many ASEAN countries already have innovation incubators at a national level. Some

startups accelerators and incubators based in Singapore include the Joyful Frog Digital

Incubator and the Singapore FinTech Consortium. Additionally, SGInnovate was launched in

2016 by the Singapore Government to support and develop the startup ecosystem in

Singapore, and act as a long-term investor for deep tech startups.

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However, national incubators can be linked in a regional network that helps SMEs scale up

quickly and operate across ASEAN seamlessly. Besides overcoming the constraints posed

by a limited domestic market, these businesses can benefit from the cross-fertilization of

ideas between disparate cultures and communities, spurring innovation.

2.2.4 Common Cybersecurity Framework

To counter the rising threats to cybersecurity, ASEAN needs to develop a coherent

framework for cybersecurity. Specifically, the framework needs to enforce the “sharing of

critical information, establishing protocols to deal with hacking, coordinating cybersecurity

agencies for all members, and creating a regional dispute settlement resolution”

(Global-is-asian, 2018).

As ASEAN Chair, Singapore should take the lead in pushing out greater regional

co-operation in addressing the cybersecurity threats of the digital economy. Last year,

Singapore was the only ASEAN country investing more than the global average in

cybersecurity, ranking 3rd globally (A.T. Kenney, 2018) . It should help to level up the cyber 17

defence capabilities of other ASEAN countries through training, infrastructure support and

sharing of expertise.

Current measures such as ASEAN Cyber Capacity Building Programme (ACCP) and

ASEAN Cyber Norms Workshop should be sustained and upgraded. The former raises

awareness of current cyber norms, and the latter assists countries in attaining the digital

infrastructure and know-how to combat cyber threats.

17 In 2017, Singapore invested 0.22% of its GDP on cyber security, ranking third globally following Israel (0.35%) and the United Kingdom (0.26%) (A.T. Kearney, 2018).

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Conclusion: Reconfiguring Growth — Towards a Sustainable and Inclusive

Economy

As far as modern Economics goes, growth has always been implicitly equated to GDP

growth. While the indicator has its merits, doubts have been raised about the mindless

chasing of ever-increasing consumption and the resultant irreversible ecological destruction.

New models of growth has been mooted, with Figure 7 being an example.

Figure 7: A new model of growth mooted by Kate Raworth, developmental economist and

author of the book “Seven Ways to Think LIke a 21st Century Economist” (Raworth, 2017)

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Technology plays an essential role in the reconfiguration of growth, unlocking new models of

development that is both inclusive and sustainable . Renewable energy prevents the 18

continual depletion of natural resources, protecting environmental sustainability. Introduction

of new employment opportunities and financial services to previously underserved rural

populations reduces inequality and boosts economic sustainability. The internet establishes

brand new avenues for individuals and communities to connect, eliminating physical

distances and achieving social sustainability.

Instead of the dystopian fictional future it often stars in , technology is key in unlocking 19

mankind’s better future. The time to act is now. If ASEAN member states unite to effectively

establish regional frameworks for a successful digital economy, the goal of inclusive and

sustainable growth throughout the region would no longer be a dream.

Word Count: 1995 words

18 Sustainable development is most commonly defined as according to the Brundtland Report (1987), being the “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. It is often understood as having three essential pillars of sustainability: economic, environmental, and social.

19 Examples of dystopian literature that is based on a fear technology include Brave New World (1931), 1984 (1949), Fahrenheit 451 (1983) and The Handmaid’s Tale (1985).

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