leveraging investment in broadband infrastructure: rwanda &...
TRANSCRIPT
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LeveragingInvestmentinBroadbandInfrastructure:
Rwanda&SenegalMichaelMinges
UN-OHRLLSConsultant
Dakar,1March2017
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Contents
• Broadband• Countrycontext• Infrastructure• Investment• Impact• Demand• Conclusions
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WHYBROADBAND
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Whybroadband?
• Telemedicine• Remotediagnosis• Electronicrecords
• EnhancedinternalcommunicaRons
• Onlineservicedelivery
• Schoolnetworking• Digitalcontent
• Newdigitaloutlets
• NaRonalintegraRon• Employment
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Whatisbroadband?
• 24/7high-speedInternetaccess• NouniversallyagreeddefiniRonofspeed
CONTEXT
“AnetworkconnecRonthatisalwayson,availableathome,atworkandonthemove,thatdeliversprogressivelyhigher
bandwidthsthatarecapableofsupporRnginnovaRveandinteracRvecontentand
services,astoenhancetheuser-experience.”
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Speeds4Mbps 10Mbps 20Mbps 50Mbps
MulR–pointvideoconferencing
NotAdequate
Adequate Adequate Adequate
Downloadhigh–definiRonvideo
NotAdequate
NotAdequate
Adequate HighlyAdequate
Serverbackup(oneterabytecapacity)
NotAdequate
NotAdequate
NotAdequate
HighlyAdequate
Distancelearning
NotAdequate
NotAdequate
NotAdequate
HighlyAdequate
Telemedicine NotAdequate
NotAdequate
NotAdequate
HighlyAdequate
CONTEXT
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COUNTRYCONTEXT
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Landarea:24,580km2
PopulaRon:12mPopulaRondensity:471/km2GDPpercapita:US$697
Landarea:192,530km2PopulaRon:15mPopulaRondensity:79/km2GDPpercapita:US$900
Source:ColumbiaUniversity,WorldBank(2015).
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Timeline
1997 1998 1999 2001 2006 2009 2011 2012 2013
PrivaRzed Listed
PrivaRzed Insolvent
Rwandatel• PrivaRzedtwice• Nolongerexists
Significantforeigninvestment(France,SouthAfrica,Luxembourg,US,Libya,Sudan,India,SouthKorea)
Sonatel• BiggestcompanyinSenegal• Largestcompanyonregionalstock
exchange• 3overseassubsidiaries
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InternetmarketshareSeptember2016
12organizaRonswithASNs 4organizaRonswithASNs
Orange65%
Tigo26%
Expresso9%
Senegal
Source:ARTP.
MTN40%
Tigo38%
Airtel22%
Others0.2%
Rwanda
Source:R
URA
.
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BROADBANDINFRASTRUCTURE
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Firstmile:InternaRonalbandwidth
SaoTome $2,500Kenya $287Madagascar $844Burundi $300Rwanda $125
InternaDonalconnecDvitywholesaleprices(US$perMb/spermonth),2014
Source:W
orldBank.
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MiddleMile:NaRonalbackbone
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InternetExchangePoints(IXPs)TowardsasustainableInternetecosystem
• Launchedinmid2004• ManagedbyRICTAwith11parRcipantsinlate2016
• Trafficrose25%in2016
• Subjectofdiscussionforseveralyears
• StatutesadoptedinNovember2015
• SlatedtolaunchsoonwithADIEasheadofAdministraRveCouncil
Publicandprivatedatacentersinbothcountries
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Lastmile
0102030405060708090100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Rwanda3Gcoverage(%ofpopulaDon)
Source:RURA,Sonatel,esRmates.
0102030405060708090100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Senegal(3Gcoverage,%ofpopulaDon)
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Broadbandspeed3G+
ê4.3Mbpsé1.9Mbps ê4.9Mbpsé1.5Mbps
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Twodifferentpathsto4G• Rwanda:PPPwholesalemodel• Publicprivatepartnership
(PPP)establishedtodeploy4G(KTRwandaNetwork(KTRN))in2013
• KTRNiswholesalersellingcapacitytoretailers(mobileoperators&ISPs).
• KTtoinvestUS$140millionwhilegovernmentprovidedfiberassets&frequencies
• Launchedin2014• Status:14Gwholesalerand9
retailers
• Senegal:AucRonmodel• Operatorsallowedtotest
(2013-2015)• Tenderlate2015
– ReservepriceFCFA30billion(US$50million)
– Nobids• Sonatelextendedlicensefor
17yearsincluding4GauthorizaRoninJuly2016– LicensefeeCFA100billionof
which4GfrequencieswereFCFA32billion($54million)
• StatusFebruary2017:14Gprovider
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4Gdeployment
0
29
47
95
0102030405060708090100
2014 2015 2016 2017
4GpopulaDoncoverage,Rwanda
Source:RURA.
70
90
0102030405060708090100
2020 2025
4GpopulaDoncoverage,Senegal(perSonatellicenseterms)
3years
9years
Source:MinistereDesPostesEtDesTelecommunicaRons.
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• ConsorRumduServiceUniversel(CSU)awardedUniversalServicelicenseawardedthroughapublicbidin2009
• Includes5.8GHz&2.4GHzfrequency• Launched2013
•Landarea:29,445km2 •PopulaDon(2013Census):541,032 •Density:18/km2
MATAM
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INVESTMENT
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Measuringinvestment
Tower:$100BaseStaRon:$100
① Infrastructuresharing② Licensefees③ Inprivatemarket,needstomakebusinesssense
$300investment $400investment
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Top10privateparRcipaRonininfrastructureprojects
RWANDAProject
Investment(US$m)
AkanyaruValleyPowerProject 320
MTNRwanda 289
MillicomRwanda 187
KivuWat 142
Rwandatel–2ndDivesRture 100
KibuyePower1 76
Agahozo-ShalomPVSolarPlant 24
Rwandatel-FirstDivesRture 20
GisenyiMethaneGasPlant 16
Aggreko10MWPowerStaRon 2
TOTAL 1,176
ICT 596
ICT(%) 51%
SENEGALProject
Investment(US$m)
OrangeSonatel 2,270
BlaiseDiagneInternaRonalAirport 730
MillicomSenegal 538
SenegalThermalFacility 344
DakarDiamniadioTollRoad 264
SudatelSenegal 260
Dakar-DiamniadioTollRoadExtension 173
TobeneIPP 165
DakarSeaport 134
DakarPortTerminal 132
TOTAL 5,010
ICT 3,068
ICT(%) 61%Source:W
orldBank,Priv
ateParRcipaRo
ninInfrastructureDatabase.
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Telecominvestmenttrends
Rwanda
2.9%
2.4%
3.6%
5.8%
4.3%
9.0%
3.6%
1.3%
1.5%
2.0%
3.2%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
US$m As%ofGFCF
Senegal
Note:GFCF=GrossFixedCapitalFormaRon.PricesincurrentUS$.Excludinggovernmentinvestments&licensefees.Source:AdaptedfromRURA,WorldBank,newsreports.
4.8%
3.5%
5.5%
4.9%
4.9%
8.2%
8.7%
8.3%
12.4%
8.7%
7.7%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
US$m As%ofGFCF
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InvestmentcomposiRonSonatelexample
• Mobile– Upgradingto3G/LTE– Extendingcoverage– Improvingquality
• Network– TransformingtoIP
• Other– Datacenter&dataarchival– Land,buildings&vehicles– UpdaRnginformaRonsystems
Mobile54%
Network13%
Other33%
Sonatelinvestmentareas,2015
Totalinvestment:CFA69b(US$117m)
Source:AdaptedfromSonatelAnnualReport2015.
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Investmentsources
• Foreigninvestor(generallyonlyiniRally)• Bankloans• Suppliercredits• Cashflow
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ECONOMICIMPACTS
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Directeconomicimpact
Rwanda
$153 $153$202 $190 $210 $232
2.5% 2.4%
3.0% 2.8%3.1%
3.3%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Infocommvalueadded(US$m)
As%ofGDP
Senegal
$984 $1,051$1,026$1,157$1,179$1,018
10.0% 10.0% 10.1%10.6% 10.4% 10.1%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Telecom&postsvalueadded(US$m)
As%ofGDP
Note:Constantprices.Source:AdaptedfromANSD&NISR.
Contributed~10%ayeartoGDPp.p.growthContributed~5%ayeartoGDPp.p.growth
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Indirectimpact
Katz,RaulL.andKoutroumpis,Pantelis,“TheEconomicImpactofTelecommunicaRonsinSenegal”.Communica)ons&Strategies,No.86,2ndQuarter2012,pp.21-42.AvailableatSSRN:htps://ssrn.com/abstract=2270502
• “Accordingtothemodel,thereissRllnosignificanteffectfromtheadopRonofbroadbandinSenegal”
• “…suggestsanannualimpactfromeach1%incrementofmobilepenetraRontocontributeslightlymorethan0.05%onGDP”
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SECTORIMPACTS
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LesjeunesSénégalaisàl'assautdeYouTube
htp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20160113-senegal-youtube-videos-buzz-sandale-man
VéritableespacedecréaRon,laplateformevidéoquioccupe20%delabandepassanteauSénégalesttrèsappréciéedesjeunesquis'ensaisissentpourproduireducontenu.
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Government
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Health
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FinancialinclusionMobilemoney
Rwanda Senegal
55
1320.8
2.5
2013 2014
AcRveaccountsper1,000adults
TransacRonvalue(%ofGDP)
Source:IMFFinancialAccessSurvey
68 140 263 349 3690.2
3.6
6.8
12.8
18.7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AcRveaccountsper1,000adults
TransacRonvalue(%ofGDP)
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DEMAND
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“SignificantlyincreaseaccesstoinformaRonandcommunicaRonstechnologyandstrivetoprovide
universalandaffordableaccesstotheInternetinleastdevelopedcountriesby2020”
—SustainableDevelopmentGoal9.C
2015 Rwanda Senegal
2Gcoverage(%ofpopulaRon) 99.9 92
3Gcoverage(%ofpopulaRon) 92 80
Mobilephone(%households) 60 93
Electricity(%households) 23 61Source:RURA,Sonatel&NISR,ANSD.
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Affordability
Rwanda Senegal
$53
$8.45
59%
11.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2011 2017
Cheapestmonthlymobiledataplan(Orange,US$)
As%ofGDPpercapita
$27 $2.8
59%
4.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
2010 2016
Permonth(US$)
As%ofpercapitaGDP
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Affordabilitycont.
• Existenceofdailyandweeklyplansenhanceaffordability
• AffordabilitymoretodowithquanRtyconsumed
• Smartphonecostisabarrier
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Rwanda:71%
Age15+2012Census
Senegal:45%
Age10+2013Census
Literacy
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UsageesRmateInternetusers,age15+,Feb.2017
9%
31%
2%
10%
11%
41%
Rwanda Senegal
UseFacebook Don'tuseFacebook Internetusers
Note:DerivedfromnumberofFacebookusersandraRoofsocialnetworkuserstoInternetusersinSenegalandEastAfrica(forRwanda).Source:AdaptedfromFacebook&PewResearchCenter.
2010:1.4%
2010:6.1%
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Firmshavingownwebsite(%)
Source:WorldBank,EnterpriseSurveys
0102030405060708090100
Senegal(2014)
SSA World
Small(5-19) Medium(20-99)
Large(100+)
0102030405060708090100
Rwanda(2011)
SSA World
Small(5-19) Medium(20-99)
Large(100+)
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Awareness
• Rwanda:AccordingtoEICV4,only7.1%ofthepopulaRonagedtenyearsandolderwascomputerliteratein2014
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AtracRvenessTopsites,February2017
Rwanda
SiteDailyTimeonSite
1 Google.com 8:58
2 Google.rw 6:57
3 Youtube.com 9:35
4 Yahoo.com 4:30
5 Igihe.com 11:35
6 Inyarwanda.com 9:42
7 Ukwezi.com 7:37
8 Umuryango.rw 11:54
9 Ask.com 2:49
10 Wikipedia.org 4:28
SenegalSite DailyTimeon
Site
1 Youtube.com 9:40
2 Google.sn 7:04
3 Google.com 9:02
4 Seneweb.com 11:15
5 Senego.com 11:11
6 Yahoo.com 4:32
7 Leral.net 7:27
8 Dakaractu.com 5:18
9 Buzzsenegal.com 5:03
10 Live.com 4:28
Source:Alexa.
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allcountriesshouldhaveaNBPorstrategyorincludebroadbandintheirUASDefiniRon
targetstoachieveby2015
entry-levelbroadbandservicesshouldbemadeaffordable(<5%monthlyGNIpercapita)
40%ofhouseholdsindevelopingcountriesshouldhaveInternetaccess
InternetuserpenetraRonshouldreach50%indevelopingcountriesand15%inLDCs
achievinggenderequalityinaccesstobroadbandby2020
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“EnsuringthatciRzen,businessesandgovernmentareconnectedtobroadbandandaffordablyso”.
«En2025,lenumériquepourtousetpourtouslesusagesauSénégalavecunsecteurprivédynamiqueetinnovantdansunécosystèmeperformant».
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Government• 95%oftransacRonsoccurringonline
Economy• 100,000jobs• 100largetechcompanies
EducaRon• BroadbandconnecRvitytoallschools
Government• 40%ofadministraRveservicesonline
• Reducegovernmentcostsby60-70%
Economy• 30,500digitaljobs• 500newtechSMEs
EducaRon• 50%ofschoolsconnected&equipped
RWANDAUS$519mEconomicimpact
èUS$1.2b
SENEGALUS$400mEconomicimpact
èUS$0.5b
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• ~US$onebillion• CarnegieMellonUniversityofthe
UnitedStatesisoneofthecoreanchorinsRtuRonsandthefirstphaseofitscampusisscheduledforcompleRonin2017.
• ConstrucRonwillconRnueupto2022withaddiRonaleducaRonalandtechcompanytenants.– 4,500highlyskilledICTjobsby2022– ExportearningsuptoanesRmated
US$180millionby2022.– Top10companiesgeneraRngcombined
annualrevenuesof$500millionby2025;
• ~Euro70millionfromAfricanDevelopmentBankapprovedin2015
• ConstrucRonslatedforcompleRonin2019– 65,000directjobsby2025– US$200millioninFDI
KIGALIINNOVATIONCITY SENEGALDIGITALTECHNOLOGYPARK(“DIAMNIADIOVALLEY”
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Conclusions• Steadygrowthinbroadbandnetworks• RwandaaheadinbroadbandcoveragebutSenegalleadsin
usageanddirecteconomicimpact• Demandhasnotmatchedsupply('IfYouBuildIt,TheyWill
Come’?)• Mostimpactsare“2G”• Operatorsmayfinditdifficulttosustaininvestmentsin
lightof“compeRRon”fromOvertheTop(OTT)applicaRons(e.g.,Skype,Viber,Whatapp,etc.)
• Openaccess,infrastructuresharingandcost-basedwholesaleprovisioncanlowerinvestmentrequirements
• Theissueoflicensefees
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Governmentdemandsideinvestments
• EducaRon• Digitalliteracy• Techstartups• SMEs
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Merci
Thankyou
Dieureudieuf