Leveraging Information & Decisions for Crisis Management

Rodney J. JohnsonAugust 27, 2014

All written contents © 2014, Rodney J. Johnson. All Rights Reserved.

Goals

• Learn to think about information, itself; how valuable it is; what it's qualities are.

• Think about what information you are going to need for your crisis management plans

• Think about where you are going to get that information

• Think about how to prioritize and analyze information for best use

• Think about who is going to best use the different bits of information you obtain

INFORMATION IS A WONDROUS THING!

Information IS value.

How much would you pay for this can?

How much are the contents worth?

Information IS Value.

How much would you pay for this can?

Have the contents of the can changed at all?

We use shortcuts whenever we can in order to save on that cost.

Information is expensive.

We use shortcuts because we lack the expertise to determine what is information and what isn't.

Indicators – knowing by proxy

Indicators are "cheap" stand-ins for actual knowledge.

Validation by trusted parties.

Different parties provide different kinds of validation.

Indicators As Signs of Trouble

• Easy: Smoke• Hard: “Gale force winds”• Harder: Troop movements• Hardest: Fingernail clippers in carry-on bag

Information is the foundation resource.

We should look at it as a resource that when properly used creates, saves, and opens up other crisis management resources.

Informs

Verifies

ValidatesConfirms

Determines

All information in crisis management is one fundamental thing: an input into decision making.

INFORMATION AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

Some Crisis Examples We’ll UseSimple and Rapid: The building is on fire.World Trade Center, 9/11

More Complicated and Ambiguous: Something is wrong with the ship. It may sink.Sewol Ferry Disaster, Korea

More Complicated, Sensitive, and Utterly Unpredictable: Rioting and Civil Distress in Our Area2008 Mumbai Attacks

Extremely Complicated, Landscape in Scope, and Cataclysmic: War, Severe Military ConflictConflict with North Korea

All high on the potential pain meter.

Front Loading - A Different Mindset

If we focus on information and intelligence, we can change our whole mindset about crisis management planning.

1. Enable Planning & Preparation. Use available information to “front load” our crisis management decision making process so that we prepare better and thus lay the groundwork for action.

2. Enable Decision Making. Interpret where we are in the arc of the event to make better decisions.

3. Enable Action. Turn crisis signals that might have past unnoticed into clear messages informing action in times of crisis, either before or after key events.

Pre-Event

Post-EventFront loading is putting more weight on information that will allow us to take advantage of plan options before they disappear.

Proactive Not Reactive

Crises are not uniform.

Information is applied to a variety of crisis scenarios and situations.

Complexity Breadth/Scope

Locus of Danger Ambiguity

Unpredictability Potential Pain

There are many variables of importance in crises.

Information and Timeare joined at the hip.

Information is of different value and use depending on when it is obtained and turned into intelligence.

Early

More Valuable

More Ambiguous

Easier to Gather

Easier to Use

Late

More Critical

More Defined

Easier to Analyze

Easier to Commit to

Information & Time: Scenarios

Planning and Preparation

Predicting the future,

preparation, early action

Predicting the immediate future,

acting on remaining options

Immediate action on remaining

options

Use of information obtained during this time period

Normalcy Slow Deterioration

Rapid Deterioration

Sudden Impact

Speed of Crisis Onset = Scenario

0-100: Maybe Never 0-100: 2 Weeks 0-100: 2 Days 0-100: 2 Hours

Using scenarios allows us to isolate variables and show how changing those variables actually changes the nature of the threat to the organization and its people.

The Scenario Clock

How do we know where on the timeline we are?

How do we know how close to the danger? How close to the pain event?

It is the kind of information that we are receiving, seeing, or hearing, that determines where we are on the timeline: early, just in time, or potentially late.

Information IS the crisis clock. It helps us identify what scenario we are in, and therefore helps us determine the decisions we should make.

Normalcy Slow Deterioration

Rapid Deterioration

Sudden Impact

Leave the Country

Leave the City

Leave the City Take Immediate Shelter

Leave the Site Hide, Barricade, Arm

Plan, Prepare, Train

Plan, Prepare, Train

NK Conflict

Mumbai Attack

Scenarios

Time doesn’t just drive information usage. Information tells us what time it is!

Mind.Blown.

Information AgingInformation can age before or after you obtain it.

Less Useful Decisions

Fewer Options

Less Time to

Act

Information aging is really the worsening of all the other elements of crisis management.

Information ages for a variety of reasons.

Collected LateNot monitoring at allMonitored the wrong sources

Understood lateNot analyzedDidn’t recognize significanceCostly validation

Acted-On LateProcrastinationUntrainedUnprepared

GETTING AND USING INFORMATION FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT PLANNING

How do we know what information we need?

The Drivers of Risk

Knowledge of the Plan

Preparedness

Plan Flexibility

Existence & Usefulness of Plan Assets

Quality of Communications Between Participants

Willingness of Participants to Stick to the Plan

Quality of Decision Making

Ability to Communicate

Ability to Move

Access to Assets and Resources

Locus and Proximity of Crisis

Severity and Criticality of Impact on Operations

Speed of Onset, Movement, & Expansion

Impact of Decisions Made By Third Parties

Internal Drivers of Risk External Drivers of Risk

Mostly Under Our Control Largely Out of Our Control

The type and content of information is driven by the risks the organization and its members are LIKELY to face.

Solved through better management, preparation, training, and execution of the crisis management plan.

Managed through better information analyzed into better intelligence leading to better decisions.

The ObstaclesThe Recognized Obstacles

Information is Expensive.

We may not have the expertise we need.

We may not be structured well for using the information we do have.

The Unrecognized Obstacles

Normalcy Bias

Bulk Information Problem – Everything is a potential indicator

The Knowing-Doing Gap

Clarity-Time Problem

Un-realized Structure Problem

Expert-Level ProblemsThe Capabilities/Intentions ProblemThe Objectivity Problem - "everyone has pet theories"The "On The Ground" Mistake

Pre-Selected IndicatorsPre-selected indicators are a way to short-circuit many of the obstacles to information gathering, analysis, and usage. Remember, indicators are a proxy for actually knowing.

We're looking for indicators that could signal changes in the threat environment.

We're looking for indicators that could signal our response options are invalid.

We're looking for indicators that crucial decision points are about to be reached.

We’re looking for indicators that will determine the best paths for taking action.

Not all indicators are made equal

Some indicators are not easy to recognize.

Some indicators don't provide any information because we may dismiss them out of hand.

Some indicators don't actually illuminate anything. They are indicators of nothing.

Some Indicator Types• Deviations from the situational norm:

– shops are closed (riots), – stock market is dropping like a rock (conflict), – employees not coming to work (epidemic), – building systems not functioning properly (fire/terrorism)

• Actions taken by relevant parties: – police deployed (riots), – EBS (civil distress), – military cancels base passes (conflict)

• Words spoken by relevant authorities: – announcements, threats, declarations, denials (actual words

spoken, timing, nature of speaking authority)• Decisions made by relevant authorities:

– activate reserve (conflict), – regulator closes stock market (conflict),

• Actual crisis event: – accidents (planes collide), – intentional malevolent actions (border incursion), – boat taking on water, smoke and flames visible,

Decisive Indicators: Triggers

Decisiveness.Good triggers are decisive. Unambiguous, they don't require a lot of thinking and expertise to evaluate once seen.

Leadership.Good triggers provide leadership. They actually help you make decisions, by communicating to everyone involved the gravity of the situation.

Meaningfulness.Good triggers are more than just events or developments. They provide a window into how other entities are seeing the same events we're seeing.

Some Notes:Triggers don’t live on a vacuum. Context is still important. (speech and action, for example)Triggers are linked to each other and everything else.Triggers travel in groups. Triggers can and should be prioritized and weighted. A single indicator is powerful but the preponderance of the evidence is what persuades.

The Knowledge Management Process

Determining Requirements

•Determining data requirements•Choosing triggers and indicators•Determining sources for required info

Monitoring/Gathering

Information

•Monitoring sources•Looking for new potential indicators

Authenticating Knowledge

•Analyzing collected information•Confirming indications are real

Reviewing the Plan

•Where are we on the timeline?•What options have we planned for in this case?

Authenticating the Plan

•Are the plans we made still valid?

• Is there one option among the many that stands out as the best?

•Knowledge is added back to indications repository.

No one indicator can stand on its own as a completely persuasive argument. This is because everything is linked together.

Don’t forget to COMMUNICATE!

You can communicate anywhere in the process and must communicate at the end.

Wait for it… Wait for it…And making a decision!

So what does a good decision look like?

It should go without saying that a good decision is

one that saves lives and assets.

But, unfortunately life is usually more complicated than that.

Increase Redundancy

Decrease Reliance on

Efficient Linkages

Increase Robustness of the

Plan

Convey Confidence to Participants

Other Goals of Decision Making in Planning