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Leveraging Data to Drive
Strategic Decision-Making2018 FCIS Convention, Education for the Next Generation
Jacksonville, FL – November 15, 2018
3
14%
31%
42%
13%
Enrollment Change NAIS School2013-2014 to 2017-2018
High Decline Moderate Decline Moderate Growth High Growth
While the overall enrollment numbers for the independent school communities have remained about the same, 44% of member schools reported enrollment declines.
Nearly 70 percent of upper schools saw enrollment growth between 2013-2014
and 2017-2018, while 64% of elementary school reported declining enrollment
numbers.
Although independent school enrollment is steady overall, there are wide
variations disparities among schools in different metropolitan areas.
14%
19%
24%
11%
16%
14%
11%
5%
14%
31%
29%
18%
44%
29%
57%
18%
14%
35%
42%
48%
41%
33%
41%
21%
50%
55%
37%
13%
5%
18%
11%
14%
7%
21%
27%
14%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
National
Atlanta
Chicago
Miami
New York
St. Louis, MO
San Francisco
Seattle
Washington, DC
Enrollment Change by Metro Areas: 2013-2014 to 2017-2018
High Decline Moderate Decline Moderate Growth High Growth
● Demographic changes affecting student population and parents
● Economic factors affecting families’ ability to pay for private
education
● New school options for families
● New ways of learning and teaching to prepare students for the new
global economy.
A New Educational Landscape...
Demographic Trends
The demographic changes impacting schools are affecting both, students and parents.
✓ White population decreasing and aging
✓ Rapid growth of “new minorities”:
Hispanics, Asians, and multiracial
populations
✓ New generation of parents: Millennials
Source: 2010 U.S. Census
The diversification of the U. S. population starts at the bottom of the age pyramid.
Gen Z (born after 1996) is the most diverse generation in the
country.
A majority of children ages 0-17 will be of color by 2025.
Millennials are quickly becoming a major part of the market for independent schools. Making less money and more concerned with saving than previous generations, millennials are more concerned with the rising cost of tuition.
75.4 Million currently live in the U.S
22 Million are parents as of October 2015
7 Percent make over $150,000
63%
have
over
$10,000
in
student
loans
48%
plan to pay all
college costs for
their children
compared to
16% of Gen Xers
29
years
median
age at
first home
purchase
Millennials
by the
Numbers
“Millennials represent the largest generation in the country and will soon constitute a significant percentage of current and prospective parents at independent schools”. “However, Millennials also make less money than other generations, and are concerned with saving for their children’s college education, making rising tuitions a more important concern for them”.
Economic Trends
Housing is the largest expenditure item in the household budget. Higher house
prices can consume funds that would otherwise be available to purchase other
goods and services, including K-12 private education.
Source: 14th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 2018
Median tuition at day schools have been increasing above the cost
of living every year since 2007.
Tuition increases can be straining family finances, especially those
of Millennial parents.
Competition Trends
Today, parents and students have more educational options than ever before.
✓ Charter schools
✓ Homeschooling
✓ For-profit schools
✓ Colleges and universities
✓ Other forms of competition?
Charter schools have been expanding rapidly, increasing by 75% in the last 10 years. In 2016-2017, there were close to 7,000 charter schools serving 3 million students.
Source: National Alliance for Public Charter Schools
In 2017-2018, there were 657 charter schools in Florida serving
283,195 students.
Source: National Center for Education Statistics
The percentage of homeschooled students in the USA has doubled since 1999. In 2012, there were 1.8 homeschoolers in the country.
New and innovative school models are growing rapidly and offering unique educational models at lower prices than traditional independent schools.
Student-Led Learning: in the New England-based
Wildflower schools, students pioneer their own lessons
by engaging in Montessori-inspired activities as they see
fit
No traditional teachers: in the Texas-based Acton
Academy, “Guides” — often parents or entrepreneurs—
facilitate classes.
No traditional grading: students at Texas-based Acton
Academy receive badges demonstrating subject mastery,
earned through completing projects or engaging in
community exhibitions
Project based learning: in the San Francisco-based
Brightworks, students learn primarily through the
completion of interdisciplinary group projects
Use of technology: in the San Francisco based
AltSchool, online “portraits” create a customized
lesson plan for each student.
Lower tuition: D.C.s Blyth-Templeton Academy
charges $15,000 in tuition and fees, less than half of
median independent tuition in the area
Less physical plant: Maryland’s Mysa School is run out of
a converted 5,000 square foot variety store, saving the
school money on facilities.
Network of Schools: BASIS Independent Schools share
professional development resources and pedagogy tips
between themselves, and offer students the chance to
engage in projects with their peers across the globe.
No fundraising: Manhattan’s Portfolio school is funded
entirely on tuition, and does not rely on fundraising for any
of its operations.
For-Profit Investments: the San Francisco based
AltSchool, has raised over $100 million in equity funding,
including an investment from Mark Zuckerberg
Educational Model Business Model
Source: NAIS.org
For more information, check this link: https://www.nais.org/articles/pages/new-school-models/
The New Role of Education
Technology has impacted almost every aspect of life today, and education is no exception.
✓ Expanded access to education.
✓ Massive amounts of information are
available at one’s fingertips through the
Internet.
✓ More opportunities for formal learning are
available online worldwide.
✓ New ways of learning, communicating,
and working collaboratively.
✓ Teacher’s role is shifting to the “guide on
the side.”
✓ Students taking more responsibility for
their own learning.
• A recent Oxford University study found that 47 percent of U.S. jobs are at risk of being eliminated by automation. Findings like this make it imperative to rethink how colleges prepare graduates for a job market in flux.
• Burning Glass Technologies, an analytics software company that scraped 25 million job ads to identify the most frequently in-demand skills found that soft skills were at the top of the wish list in 75% of ads, regardless of industry.
• These changes suggest that education needs a dramatically new approach, in which learning is a lifelong pursuit, not an endeavor limited to a few years in early adulthood.
• This new model will emphasize both soft skills and hard skills that meet the needs of employers, particularly given the expected influence of automation and artificial intelligence.
In the workforce of the future, college and university graduates will need to complement — not compete with —technology
✓Widespread usage of the Internet from a young age; comfortable with technology, and interacting on social media websites for their socializing.
Generation Z is already shaping the change in education.
✓ A study by Barnes and Noble College shows that Gen Z-ers expect to be fully engaged and to be a part of the learning process themselves.
✓51% of surveyed students learn best by doing while only 12%, learn through listening. They enjoy class discussions and interactive classroom environments over the traditional dissemination teaching method.
✓ They are comfortable with learning alongside other students, even outside of their own school, using digital tools such as Skype and online forums.
Action Steps for Independent Schools
✓ Are there enough students in your area? (Demographic issue)
✓ Are tuitions too high? (Price issue)
✓ Are parents not aware of private schools? (Marketing issue)
✓ Are our school not delivering what parents want/need for their
children? (Product/school value issue)
✓ A combination of these reasons?
Diagnose the root cause of your enrollment changes
How to address enrollment changes due to changes in your
student demographics?
Use Census numbers to identify your demographic changes
• To find out what the current make up of the student population in your area is
• To understand how projected changes could impact your enrollment goals
• To identify new areas of prospective and current families
Resources: NAIS Demographic CenterNAIS DASLUS CensusNAIS Insights
Source: NAIS, Demographic Center
The student population in some Florida metro areas increased at a
higher rate than the overall school-age population in the country
(0.38% from 2010 to 2018).
School-Age Population by Selected Metro Areas in FL, 2010-2018
Miami-Fort Lauderdale
1,250,016As of 2018
3.7%
Since 2010
1.4
%
Tampa
628,476As of 2018
6.6%
Since 2010
Jacksonville
341,099As of 2018
6.4%
Since 2010
Naples
68,425As of 2018
9.2%
Since 2010
Orlando
558,551As of 2018
11.8%
Since 2010
Source: NAIS, Demographic Center
By 2023, the overall school-age population in the country is
forecasted to growth by 0.26%, compared to a projected increased of
between 1.7% and 3.8% in Florida metro areas
Forecasted Growth in School-Age Population by Selected Metro Areas in FL,
2018-2023
Miami-Fort Lauderdale
1,274,309By 2023
1.9%
2018-2023
1.4
%
Tampa
639,723By 2023
1.8%
2018-2023
Jacksonville
347,086By 2023
1.7%
2018-2023
Naples
69,592By 2023
1.7%
2018-2023
Orlando
579,613By 2023
3.8%
2018-2023
African American, 3% Latino/Hispanic
American, 9%
Asian American,
6%
Multiracial, 3%
Caucasian, 75%
International, 3%
2010 Student PopulationFCIS Schools
In 2010, 75% of the student population in FCIS schools were white. By 2018, white students represented 67% of all students.
African American, 5% Latino/Hispanic
American, 12%
Asian American,
7%
Multiracial, 5%
Caucasian, 67%
International, 3%
2018 Student PopulationFCIS Schools
Source: NAIS DASL
African American, 4%
Latino/Hispanic American, 27%
Asian American
, 4%
Multiracial, 5%
Caucasian, 60%
2018 Student PopulationNAIS Schools in Miami Metro Area
In 2018, Hispanic and African American students were underrepresented in NAIS independent schools in the Miami metro area.
African American
, 28%
Latino/Hispanic American, 43%
Asian American, 3%
Multiracial, 4%
White non-Hispanic,
23%
2018 Student Populationin the Miami Metro Area
Source: NAIS DASL, Demographic Center
The Asian American and multiracial student population in the Miami
metro area are expected to increase by 5.9% and 9.2%, respectively
through 2023.
Source: NAIS Demographic Center
1.5% 1.4%
5.9%
0.9%
2.0%
9.2%
3.0%
-2.5%-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
White AfricanAmerican
AsianAmerican
AmericanIndian
Other Race Multiracial Hispanics Whitenon-Hispanic
Projected Change in School Age Population* 2018-2023, Miami Metro Area
35
Use the NAIS Demographic Center (Multiple Area Report) to identify new areasfor prospective families. For example, the top three zip codes reporting the largest number of students 0 to 4 years in the Miami metro area are 33311, 33033, and 33313.
Source: NAIS Demographic Center
Top Zip Codes in the Miami Metro Area by Student Population 0 to 4 Years Old
ZIP Code City Name County Name
Pop. Age
0 to 4
Years
Pop. Age
5 to 9
Years
Pop. Age
10 to 13
Years
Pop. Age
14 to 17
Years
Black
Pop.,
Alone
Asian
Pop.,
Alone
Two or
More
Races
Pop.
Hisp.
Pop.
White
Non-
Hisp.
Pop.
33311 Fort Lauderdale city, FL Broward, FL 5003 4960 3,643 3,680 59239 537 1414 3575 5215
33033 Homestead city, FL Miami-Dade, FL 4665 4534 3,376 3,379 10393 726 1778 37193 5451
33313 Lauderhill city, FL Broward, FL 4612 4237 3,199 3,253 49399 1009 1796 5523 5991
33023 Miramar city, FL Broward, FL 4583 4779 3,891 4,050 39980 1331 2817 20958 5951
33025 Pembroke Pines city, FL Broward, FL 4567 4408 3,566 3,592 36288 3088 2724 21401 5508
33015 Country Club CDP, FL Miami-Dade, FL 4467 4372 3,626 3,633 8010 1484 1811 54892 4436
33463 Palm Beach, FL 4400 4754 3,668 3,558 14240 2372 2541 22013 20619
33024 Hollywood city, FL Broward, FL 4375 4476 3,805 3,927 13225 3682 3203 33634 19460
33186 The Crossings CDP, FL Miami-Dade, FL 4098 4243 3,697 3,822 5201 2498 2331 53497 12103
33411 Royal Palm Beach village, FL Palm Beach, FL 4043 4459 3,938 3,940 17015 3083 2476 15451 36250
33068 North Lauderdale city, FL Broward, FL 3991 4028 3,154 3,178 30178 1883 2183 14230 6998
33157 Cutler Bay town, FL Miami-Dade, FL 3918 4335 3,940 4,132 19758 2148 2360 32463 15077
33161 North Miami city, FL Miami-Dade, FL 3876 3823 2,864 2,873 37425 1107 2233 14674 5085
33027 Miramar city, FL Broward, FL 3856 4685 3,650 3,535 17075 5108 2371 32543 11388
33142 Miami city, FL Miami-Dade, FL 3850 3384 2,590 2,881 25378 131 1761 32382 391
The top three zip codes with the highest number of children aged 0 to 5 years are 33311, 33033, and 33023.
Source: NAIS Demographic Center
Population 0 to 5 Years by Zip Code,
Miami Metro Area
County Name ZIP Code Population Aged 0-5
Broward, FL 33311 69,254
Miami-Dade, FL 33033 53,521
Broward, FL 33023 68,338
Broward, FL 33025 66,723
Broward, FL 33313 62,815
Palm Beach, FL 33463 60,848
Miami-Dade, FL 33015 68,046
Broward, FL 33024 71,888
Palm Beach, FL 33411 73,568
Miami-Dade, FL 33186 74,051
Broward, FL 33068 54,309
Broward, FL 33027 67,050
Miami-Dade, FL 33157 69,852
Miami-Dade, FL 33161 58,523
Miami-Dade, FL 33142 55,582
Palm Beach, FL 33415 51,092
Miami-Dade, FL 33177 58,327
Broward, FL 33065 54,445
Broward, FL 33064 56,824Miami-Dade, FL 33032 39,330
Use NAIS’s Market View to learn more about the income and school age population of your local area, to more strategically target your recruiting efforts: insights.nais.org
38
Use NAIS’s Market View to identify potential areas for prospective families. In addition to the number of children by age group and race/ethnicity, you can see the median income of each zip code.
How can you assess the impact of raising tuitions on parents
ability to finance an independent school education?
Use Census numbers to identify your key economic changes
• To understand how housing prices have changed and assess how projected changes could impact your enrollment goals
• To find out how family incomes have changed over time and find prospective families who can afford your school.
Resources: NAIS Demographic CenterNAIS DASLUS Census
Source: Zillow
The median home value in Miami is $333,600. Miami home values have gone
up 4.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.6% within the
next year.
41
Use the NAIS Demographic Center (Multiple Area Report) to identify prospective families by income level and ZIP codes. For example, the top three zip codes by families with children 4 years and younger and income of $350 and over in the Jacksonville metro area are 32259, 32256, and 32092.
Source: NAIS Demographic Center
Top Zip Codes in the Miami Metro Area by Families with Children and Annual Incomes of $350,000 and Over
ZIP Code City Name County Name
Families with children
aged 0-4 and Income
$350,000 and over
Families with children
aged 5-9 and Income
$350,000 and over
Families with children
aged 10-13 and Income
$350,000 and over
Families with children
aged 14-17 and Income
$350,000 and over
32259 Jacksonville city, FL St. Johns, FL 153 240 225 214
32256 Jacksonville city, FL Duval, FL 141 123 83 69
32092 World Golf Village CDP, FL St. Johns, FL 117 141 100 91
32224 Jacksonville city, FL Duval, FL 96 99 71 65
32082 Palm Valley CDP, FL St. Johns, FL 95 153 160 169
32225 Jacksonville city, FL Duval, FL 90 95 83 81
32258 Jacksonville city, FL Duval, FL 72 71 59 54
32003 Fleming Island CDP, FL Clay, FL 71 105 105 110
32210 Jacksonville city, FL Duval, FL 67 64 49 50
32257 Jacksonville city, FL Duval, FL 66 62 53 52
32073 Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace CDP, FL Clay, FL 64 65 57 61
32034 Fernandina Beach city, FL Nassau, FL 63 68 59 59
32218 Jacksonville city, FL Duval, FL 58 58 44 44
32207 Jacksonville city, FL Duval, FL 57 46 35 36
32223 Jacksonville city, FL Duval, FL 56 69 64 66
Top Zip Codes in Jacksonville by Families with Children and Income Level
Use NAIS’s Market View to learn more about the income and school age population of your local area, to more strategically target your recruiting efforts: insights.nais.org
43
Use NAIS’s Market View to identify the financial gap needs of prospective families in your targeted zip codes.
11.2% 12.1%
38.3%
43.5%44.1%47.1%
12.2%
11.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2010 2015
Mean Income,NAIS TopQuartile
MedianIncome, AllNAIS
Miami
Miami, TopQuartile
Source: U.S. Census, NAIS DASL, NAIS Demographic Center
Tuition as a percentage of median income decreased more than six percent
between 2010 and 2015 and was lower than the ratio for NAIS schools.
Median Tuition as a Percentage of IncomeAverage Day School Tuition Grades 1-12
Percentage of High-Income Households - Miami
(Annual income of $200,000 or more)
5%
9%11%
2010 2018 2023
How can you assess if the enrollment changes are due to a
price issue?
Conduct a Tuition Elasticity Study
• To better understand parent perceptions of individual schools’ tuitions
• To understand how changes in tuition impact your market share and net tuition revenue
• To find the price threshold at which families balk
• To help you determine your financial aid needs
New York schools should consider conducting a tuition elasticity study to
better understand how tuition increases in their school could affect market
share and net tuition revenue.
1. The Going Price is what
parents would expect to pay
2. The Point of Marginal
Expensiveness is the highest
advisable price for a “premium”
positioning
3. The Point of Marginal
Cheapness is the lowest
advisable price for a “bargain”
positioning
For example, parents in San Jose believe tuition and fees at an
independent school are a good value at $20,000 a year
$20,000 $20,000$12,000 $12,000
$20,000 $22,000 $20,000
$35,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
Tuitions and Fees Parents are Willing to Pay in San Jose, CA
For example, the highest tuition level that parents in San Jose are willing
to pay are similar to the current tuition level.
$30,000 $30,000
$19,000 $19,000
$30,000$35,000 $35,000 $35,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
Highest Tuitions and Fees Parents are Willing to Pay
• Assess parent familiarity with different types of schools in your
area, including your school and its competitors.
• Determine key issues when parents select a school for their
children.
• Determine the main sources of information used by parents when
learning about school options.
How to determine if the changes in enrollment are due
to an awareness/marketing issue?
7% 7% 9% 10% 13% 14% 17%
69%
NonreligiousPrivate
OtherReligiousPrivate
Online Magnet Charter PrivateChristian
Catholic Public
Parents Who Rated Their Familiarity an 8, 9, or 10 ona 10-Point Scale
Source: CAPE Study
Determine the percentage of parents who are very familiar
with your school and your competitors.
Identify the sources of information used by your parents.
76%
41%
36%
33%
5%
5%
4%
83%
35%
33%
35%
2%
4%
6%
School visits
Friends, family, neighbors
Parents of current students atthe school
The school’s website
Printed brochures andinformation from the school
School consultant
Other
Current Parents (n=169)
Prospective Parents (n=110)
Source: NAIS Study
Conduct a Branding Study
• To find out what is most important when parents are choosing a school
• To gather data on how your school is perceived and what differentiates your school from your competitors
• To determine the reasons why parents select another school for their children.
How to determine if the changes in enrollment are due to a
school value proposition issue?
Conduct a Parent Satisfaction Survey and an Alumni Survey.
•To find out what programs and services are most important to parents and how satisfied are they with your school’s performance
•To understand the experience of alumni at your school
•To identify programs and services that need to be revamped, eliminated, or created.
Pilot SchoolCompetitor
ACompetitor
BCompetitor
CCompetitor D
Competitor E
(110) (22*) (35*) (24*) (18*) (20*)
Cares about its students 94% 64% 63% 58% 61% 55%
Has a warm and friendly atmosphere 90% 55% 60% 29% 50% 35%
Provides a well-rounded education 85% 68% 49% 71% 67% 60%
Is well established 84% 77% 77% 100% 67% 85%
Has dedicated and high qualityteachers
81% 59% 54% 75% 56% 65%
Has strong ethics 81% 68% 51% 29% 50% 40%
Focuses on building students with strong morals, ethics and values
79% 77% 51% 38% 56% 45%
Has a solid reputation 79% 77% 60% 88% 67% 80%
Is innovative 78% 50% 54% 58% 44% 55%
Provides an environment of achievement
76% 64% 49% 79% 61% 65%
Learn how your school is perceived versus your top competitors.
Source: NAIS Individual School Pilot Study
Ask your parents the reasons for not sending their children to
your school.
25%25%
19%17%
11%8%
6%3%3%3%
0%0%0%
50%
Curriculum/academic standards didn't meet my expectations
Not a K-12 school
Didn't feel the school could address my child's learning style
Location was too far from home
Not a good value for the money
Too expensive
Didn't feel my child would be successful academically
Didn't receive enough financial aid
Didn't have extracurricular activities of interest to my child
Not a single-sex school
Child didn't feel comfortable in the environment
Curriculum was too rigorous
Does not have a solid reputation
Other
Source: NAIS Individual School Pilot Study
Familiarize yourself with the offerings of your competitors and how you compared with them. For example, BASIS Independent Schools is a for-profit school operating in the NY area.
International Engagement: BASIS operates several schools in China, and provides opportunities for
students to collaborate online across countries and cultures.
BASIS Independent Schools, a series of PK-12
private schools, provide a liberal arts program
that prepares students across the sciences,
humanities, social sciences and the arts for the
challenges of 21st century opportunities and
careers.
Focus on Language: All BASIS Independent students begin studying Mandarin as early as
prekindergarten, and are given an option to switch to a different language in middle school.
Unique Teaching Model: From grades 1-4, each class is taught by two joint teachers. A subject expert
guides course content and a learning expert guides pedagogy and social/emotional development.
Source: NAIS.org
Tuition $30,200 at the Brooklyn location
Enrollment2400 students across 5 locations in NY,
CA, and VA
Local campuses 2 locations in New York City
Final Thoughts
1. Our Market: The market is changing. Our constituency is
changing. Do you know how it’s affecting your school? Can
you afford not to adapt?
2. Our Value: At the end of the day, schools will need to be
compelling and not just distinctive. How do you articulate
the difference your school makes to your students?
3. Our Model: We have an expensive business model. Can
you afford not to rethink your model and strategy?
