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LEVELS OF SOCIAL INDICATORS IN SOUTH AFRICA IN RELATION TO INTERNATIONAL GOALS OF DEVELOPMENT

By

Eric O. Udjo, Mark Orkin and Sandile Simelane Statistics South Africa, Private Bag X44, Pretoria, South Africa

Paper presented at the Economic Commission for Europe Seminar: Statistics for Social Development, Geneva 2000 and Beyond, Geneva 2000 Forum,

Geneva, 27 June 2000

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LEVELS OF SOCIAL INDICATORS IN SOUTH AFRICA IN RELATION TO

INTERNATIONAL GOALS OF DEVELOPMENT

Eric O. Udjo, Mark Orkin and Sandile Simelane Statistics South Africa, Private Bag X44, Pretoria, South Africa

ABSTRACT: International organisations have proposed a number of socio-economic indicators to measure the progress of development across countries. In addition to meeting international obligations, there have been a number of initiatives in South Africa to develop indicators that take into consideration the country’s specific circumstances. As the official agency for the collection of national statistics, Statistics South Africa has played a crucial role in this process. It includes responsibility for the compilation of the core set of 21 indicators within the framework of the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)/World Bank/United Nations initiative. This paper discusses the levels of social indicators in South Africa within the framework of the OECD/Word Bank/United Nations core set of indicators. In addition, the paper highlights some of the problems facing Statistics South Africa in providing timely statistics on social indicators. BACKGROUND International context of social indicators The development, regular compilation and publication of some objective quantitative and qualitative criteria (indicators) are necessary to measure, monitor and inform policies with regard to socio-economic development in any country. Internationally, a number of initiatives have been undertaken in this regard (see Williams and Smith, 2000 for a comprehensive review). In a series of UN global conferences concern was expressed on major development issues. In response, in 1996 development ministers of OECD countries formulated a strategy for development based on seven international goals, namely: • = Reduction by half of the proportion of people living in extreme poverty by

2015, • = Universal primary education by 2015, • = Elimination of gender disparity in primary and secondary education by

2005, • = Reduction of infant and child mortality by two-thirds the 1990 levels by

2015, • = Reduction of maternal mortality by three-fourths the 1990 level by 2015. • = Access to reproductive health services through the primary health-care

system for all individuals of appropriate ages, including safe and family planning methods by 2015,

• = Reversal of trends of loss in environmental resources by 2015.

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To assess progress regarding these goals, a core set of 21 indicators (Indicators of Development Progress, (IDP) was defined by OECD DAC, World Bank and the UN. The indicators also provide a yardstick for assessing the effectiveness of programmes in specific fields (OECD, 1998). However, aggregate measures such as the IDP do not necessarily adequately reflect the diversity of a country’s population – a situation faced by South Africa. The context of indicators in South Africa In addition to meeting international obligations, national initiatives to develop indicators take into consideration the monitoring of transformation of hitherto apartheid South Africa. The goals of transformation are embodied in the Government’s Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP), and the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) strategy. The RDP is an integrated, coherent socio-economic policy designed to ensure “a better life for all”. GEAR is the government’s macro-economic framework for rebuilding and restructuring the economy to meet the needs of the new democracy, and focusing on the competitive world economy. Poverty alleviation, a critical issue in the transformation process, is a major concern to the Government. In this regard, initiatives to measure and monitor poverty is now co-ordinated by the Policy Co-ordination and Advisory Services unit (POCAS) formerly called the Co-ordination and Implementation Unit (CIU) located in the Office of the Presidency. As a consequence, various Government Departments have developed poverty monitoring indicators. (See Report of the technical workshop on poverty indicators and monitoring, 1998, and Thorne-Erasmus, 1998). The role of Statistics South Africa As the official agency for the collection of national statistics, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) has played a crucial role in the development of indicators as follows: (1) participation in various forums concerned with the development of

indicators, for example, the POCAS in the Office of the Presidency. (2) development of its own new indicators such as the household

infrastructure index and the household circumstances index, (see Orkin, Hirschowitz, Alberts and Lehohla: 1999);

(3) compilation and publication of various indicators based on its regular surveys and the population census, for example, the calculation of imputed expenditure for all parts of the country;

(4) co-ordination of the compilation of indicators obtained from various Government Departments;

(5) refinement of existing indicators through the modification of various survey instruments. For example Stats SA recently introduced a bi-annual labour force survey (LFS) to improve the country’s labour market statistics. The first of these surveys was implemented in February 2000; and

(6) identification of target groups for development policy formulation and monitoring, for example, research on time-use to understand how people in different social circumstances utilise their time.

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Although the national indicators go beyond those developed internationally, they are not radically different. Some of the weaknesses of the national indicators include: overlap resulting in duplication of efforts; lack of reliable data; and, in some cases, the methods of measuring the indicators are not always clear. OBJECTIVES Given the above, the objectives of this paper are to: • = Situate the levels of social indicators in South Africa within the framework

of the OECD/Word Bank/United Nations core set of indicators; • = Highlight some of the problems facing Statistics South Africa in providing

timely statistics on social indicators. DATA Most of the indicators discussed in this paper are based on Stats SA’s regular surveys, and the 1996 population census. The October Household Surveys (OHS) Stats SA has carried out an annual October household survey (OHS) since 1993. The sample size ranges between 12 000 and 30 000 households1. Hirschowitz and Orkin (1996) provide information regarding the general principle in the OHS sample design. The OHS is an omnibus survey and thus, a rich source of data for various development indicators. The 1996 population census (Census ’96). Stats SA carried out the first non-racial nationwide census in October 1996 (see Stats SA: 1998, 1999 for methodological details). Various development indicators can also be obtained from Census ’96. The Income and Expenditure Survey (IES) Stats SA conducts an IES every five years to obtain information on income and expenditure patterns of households. The previous IES was in October 1995 and was based on a sample of 30 000 households. Planning is at an advanced stage to conduct the next IES in October 2000. Since Stats SA does not collect information on some of the core indicators, various Government Departments and Organizations were requested by Stats

1 Stats SA wishes to thank UK Department for International Development (DFID) for providing funding (R8m) to carry out the 1999 October household survey.

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SA in an inter-departmental meeting on core indicators to fill in the gaps in Stats SA’s data sets on a regular basis2. METHODS Unless otherwise stated in the footnotes, the indicators in Appendix 1 were computed using the definitions and methods specified in OECD DAC (1998). LEVELS OF SOCIAL INDICATORS IN SOUTH AFRICA Unemployment rate3 The global conferences did not set quantitative goals regarding levels of unemployment. However, the Copenhagen World Summit emphasised the monitoring of employment and unemployment trends as an important factor in social development (see UNECE, 2000). The trend in unemployment rates in South Africa is given below. According to the official definition, the unemployment rate has increased slightly in recent years with over one-fifth of the economically active population unemployed in 1997 (Table 1). The level of unemployment is higher in the expanded than in the official definition since this wider definition of unemployment excludes work-seeking behaviour (Table 1). Table 1. Unemployment rates

1995 1996 1997 1998 Official definition (%) 16.4 20.3 22.0 25.2 Expanded definition (%) 28.3 34.4 37.4 37.5 Source: Stats SA Economic well-being: Poverty Poverty headcount ratio (% below $1 a day): The international development goal is to reduce the proportion of the population whose income/consumption falls below the poverty line (i.e. the prevalence of poverty or poverty headcount ratio) to less than 15% by 2015. At present, we can only provide information on this indicator for the year 1995. As can be seen in Appendix 1, according to this measure, the proportion of the population in extreme poverty was 18% in 1995. This is higher than the level of the international goal (less than15% by 2015). However, by this figure, 2 Stats SA wishes to thank the various Government Departments and other organisations for their input in compiling the core indicators. The Departments and organisations are indicated in Appendix 1. 3 Stats SA uses two definitions – official and expanded definitions - of unemployment in compiling its unemployment statistics. In conformity with the ILO, the unemployed according to the official definition, are those people within the economically active population, who: (a) did not work during the seven days prior to interview, (b) want to work and are available to start work within a week of the interview, (c) have taken active steps to look for work or to start some form of self-employment in the four weeks prior to the interview. The expanded definition of the unemployed excludes criterion c above.

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South Africa had in 1995, attained the goal set for sub-Saharan Africa (18% by the year 2015). Poverty Gap ratio: Similarly, the poverty gap ratio (the combined measurement of prevalence and depth of poverty) in 1995 (6%) indicates that South Africa has attained the goal set for Sub-Saharan Africa (7% by 2015). However, the international goal is 5% by 2015. Inequality of income: share of poorest 20%: In 1995, the poorest one-fifth of all households in South Africa had only 3% of all household income. Social Development Net enrolment ratio in primary education and literacy and gender equality in education: The percentage of children of primary school age who are enrolled in primary education (net enrolment ratio) increased slightly from 95% in 1995 to 96% in 1997. This level, though less than the international goal (99% by 2015), is much higher than the average level in sub-Saharan Africa in 1995 (56%). About 79% of those aged 15 years and over were literate in 1996 – this is much higher than the level for sub-Saharan Africa in 1995 (57%) but falls short of the international goal (88% by 2015). The female/male gross enrolment ratio was 108% in 1997. It would appear that South Africa by this figure, achieved the international goal (100% by 2005) unlike the general position in sub-Saharan Africa where the female/male gross enrolment ratio was 79% in 1995. However, the gross female/male enrolment ratio of 108% in South Africa should be interpreted with caution. It does not necessarily imply equal opportunity for boys and girls to participate in primary and secondary education. It is an indication that proportionately more girls than boys older than the school going age, are enrolled at school. This is evident from the higher gross female enrolment ratio of 111% in 1997 compared with the male gross enrolment ratio of 110%. Childhood mortality Relative to the international goal of reducing infant mortality to 22 per thousand live births, and under-five mortality to 31 per thousand by 2015, childhood mortality is still high in South Africa. It should also be noted that the infant mortality rate appears to have increased in recent years in South Africa. The level was estimated as 56 per thousand live births in 1996 while in 1990 it was estimated as 55 per thousand. Reproductive health The estimated maternal mortality ratio of 150 per 100 000 live births in South Africa in 1998 is the lowest of any country in sub-Saharan Africa (except Botswana which has a similar level), and well below the international goal (245 per 100 000 live births in 2015). The average level in sub-Saharan Africa was 979 per 100 000 live births in 1990. The contraceptive prevalence rate (50% in 1998) in South Africa is also the highest of any country in sub-Saharan Africa (18% in 1993-95 in the whole region) consequently; the total fertility rate in 1996 (3,2) is also the lowest in the region. Despite these levels,

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teenage pregnancy and HIV are quite common. As of 1998, about 35% of women had been pregnant before they reached the age of 19 years. Also, about 26% of women aged 20-24 years attending public antenatal clinics in 1999 were HIV positive. Environment In 1998, about 18% of households had no access to piped water, 12% of households had no access to a toilet facility, while 10% of households had no access to refuse removal facilities. Thus on a daily basis, members of these households confront various health hazards related to environmental contamination including diarrhea. Notably, South Africa has an environmental management Act. By 1998, only 5% of the total land area of South Africa was protected to conserve biodiversity compared with the international goal of 10% for each major ecological region. Carbon dioxide emissions increased from 299 million metric tons in 1995, to 314 million metric tons in 1998 reflecting increased industrial processes in the country. PROBLEMS IN PROVIDING TIMELY INDICATORS BY STATS SA Stats SA faces a number of problems in providing timely statistics on indicators including the following. Since Stats SA does not collect information on some of the indicators in its present surveys and the population census, it relies on other Government Departments to collect the information. This process is often time-consuming. In addition, Government Departments have developed and defined indicators to meet their specific needs. The methods of measuring the indicators are not always clear resulting in difficulties of harmonizing local needs with the obligation to provide indicators based on international definitions. Due to incomplete vital registration in South Africa, vital statistics are often indirectly estimated. But indirect estimations are time consuming since they are based on retrospective reports that are widely recognized (in the literature) as often defective. Lack of adequate skilled human resources places a heavy burden on existing staff as they contend with other pressing priorities. These problems are however, not insurmountable. DISCUSSION South Africa has achieved several of the international development goals and also made substantial progress toward attaining others. The country’s level of development as measured by the above indicators is well above the average level for sub-Saharan Africa. Despite this achievement nationally, there are

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large disparities in the levels of these indicators within the country among the so-called four main population groups: Africans, coloureds, Indians and whites. Our next challenge in the compilation of the core set of indicators is to provide a breakdown by other characteristics including population group. This would facilitate the appropriate focusing of Government policies and programmes on risk groups in the society. AKNOWLEDGEMENT We wish to thank Joyce Lestrade-Jefferis for editing the paper.

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REFERENCES Department of Welfare (1998). Population Policy for South Africa. National Population Unit, Pretoria. Hirschowitz R. and Orkin M. (1996). Living in South Africa: findings from the October 1995 household survey. Statistics South Africa (formerly, Central Statistical Service), Pretoria. OECD (1998). Core set of indicators of development progress. DCD/DAC(98)6. OECD (2000). Indicators for the international development goals: a suggestion for some qualitative indicators. DCD(2000)7. Orkin M., Hirschowitz R., Alberts P., and Lehohla P. (1999?). Census ’96: Key findings for development planning. Development Monitor, vol 16, no. 1, pp. 57-66. Republic of South Africa (1998). The building has begun: Government’s report to the nation. Government Communication and Information System, Pretoria. Republic of South Africa (1998). South Africa year book, 1998. Government Communication and Information System, Pretoria. Statistics South Africa (1998). The people of South Africa, population census 1996: Calculating the undercount in Census ’96. Statistics South Africa, Pretoria. Statistics South Africa (1999). The people of South Africa, population census 1996: Primary tables, the country as a whole. Statistics South Africa, Pretoria. Thorne-Erasmus J. (1998). Current indicator initiatives. Briefing note for the technical workshop of the poverty and inequality indicators and monitoring task team, Pretoria. Williams T., and Smith K. B. (2000). Statistics to shape the 21st Century: the role of indicators. Paper presented at the Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians, Gaborone, 1- 5 May. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. (2000). The statistical implications of the social development summit, five years on. Statistical Division, Geneva.

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Appendix 1: Core indicators of development in South Africa Measuring Selected Indicators % or value Year Source Responsible

Institution/Dept

Economic well-being Poverty 1. Incidence of poverty Poverty headcount ratio

(% below $1 a day) 18,2% 1995 Income Expenditure

Survey Statistics SA

2. Poverty gap Poverty gap ratio 5,8% 1995 Income Expenditure

Survey Statistics SA

3. Inequality of income Share of poorest 20% 3% of all

household income

1995 Income Expenditure Survey

Statistics SA

4. Prevalence of child malnutrition

Underweight 1,4% (age 6-71 mths)

1995 S.A Vitamin A consultative Group

Dept. of Health

Stunting 22,9% (age

6-71 mths)1995 S.A Vitamin A

consultative Group Dept. of Health

Social Development Univ. primary educ 5. Enrolment in primary education

Net enrolment ratio in primary education

95% 1995 Demographic Information Bureau

Dept. of Education/ Statistics SA

97% 19961) Statistics SA Dept. of Education 96% 19971) Statistics SA Dept. of Education

6. Completion of primary education

Survival rate to grade 5 Data not available

N/A N/A Dept. of Education/ Statistics SA

7. Literacya Literacy rate of 15-24

years old 88,9% 1996 Census Statistics SA

1997 OHS '97 Statistics SA 1998 OHS '98 Statistics SA

Gender equality 8. Gender equality in education

Gross enrolment ratio (GER) - female

110,9% 1995 Demographic Information Bureau


111,4% 1996 Statistics SA 110,5% 19971) Statistics SA Gross enrolment ratio (GER) - male

109,1% 1995 Demographic Information Bureau


109,9% 1996 Statistics SA 109,7% 19971) Statistics SA (GER-female/GER-male) 101,6% 1995

Demographic Information Bureau


101,4% 1996 Statistics SA 108,8% 19971) Statistics SA

9. Gender equality in literacy

Gender equality in literacy of 15-24 yrs old

102,7% 1996 Census/OHS Statistics SA

1997 OHS '97 1998 OHS '98 proportion 15+ yrs with at least grade 3

79,3% 1996 Census Statistics SA

proportion 15+ yrs with at least grade 7

63,9% 1996 Census Statistics SA

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Measuring Selected Indicators % or value Year Source Responsible Institution/Dept

Infant and child mortality

10. Infant mortality rate Infant mortality rate 1996 Census Statistics SA 45 per 1000

live births1998 S.A Demographic Health

Survey, (Dept. of Health Preliminary Report)

Dept. of Health

11. Child mortality Child mortality rate 1996 Census Statistics SA

15 per 1000 live births

1998 S.A Demographic Health Survey, (Dept. of Health Preliminary Report)

Dept. of Health

Under five mortality Under-five mortality

rate 1996 Census Statistics SA

15 per 1000 live births


Dept. of Health

Maternal mortality 12. Maternal mortality Maternal mortality ratio 150 per

100 000 live births


Dept. of Health

13. Births attended by skilled personnelb

Births attended by skilled personnel

84% 1998 S.A Demographic Health Survey, (Dept. of Health Preliminary Report)

Dept. of Health

OHS '97 88,8% 1998 OHS '98 Statistics SA

Reproductive health and population

14. Contraceptive use Contraceptive prevalence rate

50% 1998 S.A Demographic Health Survey, (Dept. of Health Preliminary Report)

Dept. of Health

15. Fertility Total fertility rate 3,2 children

per woman 1996 Census’96 Statistics SA

2,9 children

per woman2)1998 S.A Demographic Health


Dept. of Health

16. HIV prevalence HIV prevalence in

pregnant women < 20yrs.

21% 1999 National HIV Sero-prevalence Survey of Women Attending

Dept. of Health

HIV prevalence in pregnant women aged

26% 1999 National HIV Sero-prevalence

Dept. of Health

20-24 yrs. Survey of Women Attending Public Antenatal Clinics,

(Dept. of Health Preliminary Report)

Teenage pregnancy pregnancy of 15 and

15-19 yrs. 35% 1998 S.A Demographic Health


Dept. of Health

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Measuring Selected Indicators % or value Year Source Responsible Institution/Dept

Environment 17. Government commitment

Environment related policies and programs

1998 The New Environmental Management Act

Environmental Affairs/Health

18(a) Access to safe waterc

Population with access to piped water

79,8% households

1996 Census 1996 Statistics SA

82,2% households

1997 OHS '97 Statistics SA

82,0% households


18(b) Access to sanitation

Access to toilet facility 87,1% households


91,5% households

1997 OHS '97

87,8% households

1998 OHS '98

Access to refuse removal facility

90,5% households


91,7% households


90,2% households


19. Intensity of fresh water use

Annual withdrawals of freshwater

Data not available

Water Affairs/Water research

Commission 20. Biodiversity Land area protected 5,5% 1998 National authorities,

Dept. of Water Affairs and Forestry, Dept. of Energy Affairs and Tourism, and NBI

Environmental Affairs/Land Affairs

21. Energy efficiency GDP/unit of energy use

(1987 US$) Waiting for figures

Dept. of Minerals and Energy

22. Carbon dioxide emissions

Carbon dioxide emissions per capita

299CO2 (Mtons)

1995 Energy Research Institute (University of Cape Town)

Dept. of Environmental Affairs/Tourism

304CO2 (Mtons)

1996

309CO2 (Mtons)

1997

314CO2 (Mtons)

1998

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Notes: 1) Estimated values. Gross enrolment ratio for girls is the number of female students enrolled in school divided by

the number of females in the school going age. The same definition applies for the gross enrolment ratio for boys. 2) Unadjusted for reporting errors.

a) The OECD defines literacy as the ability to read and write a short and simple statement with understanding. In this paper anyone with at least grade 3 is classified as literate. b) The Dept. of Health defined the indicator for births attended by skilled personnel as the percentage of women who received medical assistance either from a doctor, or a trained nurse or a midwife at delivery five years before the 1998 SADHS. The OECD defines it as the number of births attended by a skilled health worker over one year as a percentage of the total number of births during the same period. c) The figure presented is the percentage of the population with access to piped water. The OECD defines access to safe water as the share of the population with reasonable access to an adequate amount of safe water (including treated surface water and untreated but uncontaminated water such as from springs, sanitary wells, and protected bore holes).

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