let the data talk - central bank of sri lanka...2 central bank of sri lank ews survey jan-m 2019 let...

Central Bank of Sri Lanka - News Survey -

Jan-Mar 20191

New

s Su

rvey

Central Bank of Sri Lanka

ISSN 1391 3589

Volum

e 39 |

Num

ber 1 |

JAN-M

AR 2019

The views expressed in the articles are those of the writers and are not necessarily those of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

Price per copy: Rs. 60.00 / Annual subscription (Inclusive of postage): Rs. 420.00

Let the DATA talk

Let the DATA talk

2 Central Bank of Sri Lanka - News Survey -

Jan-Mar 2019

Let the DATA talk1. The Rupee took a beating in 2018

With the value of the US Dollar in terms of the Sri Lanka rupee going up from around Rs. 153.50 at the beginning of 2018 to over Rs. 161 at the beginning of the third quarter of 2018 and thereafter moving up quite rapidly to over Rs.175 by November 2018 and

further to above Rs. 180 by January 2019, some of the Central Bank’s key operations again came to the focal point, since a country’s exchange rate policy is executed by the central bank.

-65-60-55-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10

-50

3-Ja

n-00

17-O

ct-0

0

1-A

ug-0

1

16-M

ay-0

2

28-F

eb-0

3

13-D

ec-0

3

26-S

ep-0

4

11-J

ul-0

5

25-A

pr-0

6

7-Fe

b-07

22-N

ov-0

7

5-Se

p-08

20-J

un-0

9

4-A

pr-1

0

17-J

an-1

1

1-N

ov-1

1

15-A

ug-1

2

30-M

ay-1

3

14-M

ar-1

4

27-D

ec-1

4

11-O

ct-1

5

25-J

ul-1

6

9-M

ay-1

7

21-F

eb-1

8

6-D

ec-1

8

Per c

ent

Depreciation(-)/Appreciation(+) of theSri Lanka Rupee vis-à-vis the USD since 2000


Jan-Mar 20193

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka intervened in the domestic foreign exchange market in 2018 to prevent high volatility in the movement of the exchange rate of the Sri Lanka rupee, whilst allowing the exchange rate to move so as to reflect the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. As a result, the official foreign reserves declined. However, the Central Bank continues to meet, on time, the repayment obligations in respect of foreign borrowings of the government.

The year 2018 saw a significant decline in the external value of several currencies including the Sri Lanka rupee alongside the tightening monetary conditions in international markets as a result of the normalisation of the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve Board of the USA. The figures below present a snapshot of the behaviour of some selected currencies including the Sri Lanka rupee, during the year 2018.

1.0 1.31.7

2.3 2.22.7 2.8

3.5

2.6

5.4

7.26.7

7.17.5

8.2

7.3

6.0

8.0

6.9

0

123456

789

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

US$

Bn.

Gross O�cial Reserves

other Selected Currencies vis-à-vis the USD in 2018 Appreciation/Depreciation of the Sri Lanka Rupee &

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

(%)

Sri Lanka Rupee

Euro

UnitedKingdomPound

Japan Yen

2-Ja

n-18

23

-Jan

-18

13-F

eb-1

8 6-

Mar

-18

27-M

ar-1

8 17

-Apr

-18

8-M

ay-1

8 29

-May

-18

19-J

un-1

8 10

-Jul

-18

31-J

ul-1

8 21

-Aug

-18

11-S

ep-1

8 2-

Oct

-18

23-O

ct-1

8 13

-Nov

-18

4-D

ec-1

8 25

-Dec

-18

Source of Data: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Report for 2017, Special Statistical Appendix Table 5. Reserves, Total Foreign

Assets, External Debt and Exchange Rates; and Weekly Economic Indicators, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Website


Jan-Mar 2019

Source of Data on Exchange Rates: International Monetary Fund (IMF) Website

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10 (%)

Appreciation/Depreciation of the Sri Lanka Rupee & other Selected Currencies vis-à-vis the USD in 2018

Sri Lanka Rupee

Malaysia Ringgit

Thailand Baht

Singapore Dollar

China Yuan

2-Ja

n-18

22

-Jan

-18

11-F

eb-1

8 3-

Mar

-18

23-M

ar-1

8 12

-Apr

-18

2-M

ay-1

8 22

-May

-18

11-J

un-1

8 1-

Jul-1

8 21

-Jul

-18

10-A

ug-1

8 30

-Aug

-18

19-S

ep-1

8 9-

Oct

-18

29-O

ct-1

8 18

-Nov

-18

8-D

ec-1

8 28

-Dec

-18

Appreciation/Depreciation of the Sri Lanka Rupee & other Selected Currencies vis-à-vis the USD in 2018

(%)

Sri Lanka Rupee

Indonesia Rupiah

Russia Rouble

India Rupee

Pakistan Rupee5

0

-10

-5

-15

-20

-25

2-Ja

n-18

23

-Jan

-18

13-F

eb-1

8 6-

Mar

-18

27-M

ar-1

8 17

-Apr

-18

8-M

ay-1

8 29

-May

-18

19-J

un-1

8 10

-Jul

-18

31-J

ul-1

8 21

-Aug

-18

11-S

ep-1

8 2-

Oct

-18

23-O

ct-1

8 13

-Nov

-18

4-D

ec-1

8 25

-Dec

-18


Jan-Mar 20195

2. But FDIs increased further in 2018, from the highest level recorded in 2017

Some other recent developments on the external front meanwhile, augur well for the Sri Lankan economy. For example, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows saw

Source of Data: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Report for 2017, Special Statistical Appendix, Table 4. Balance of Payments; and Central Bank of Sri Lanka Website

significant increases in 2017 and 2018. Macroeconomic conditions prevailing no doubt played a role in attracting these FDI inflows.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Sep 2018

USD Mn

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) In�ows to Sri Lanka (in net terms)


Jan-Mar 2019

3. Exports have also increased further in 2018

Whilst the exchange rate pertaining to the Sri Lanka rupee has been allowed by the Central Bank to be determined by market forces, this in turn ensures that pricing of Sri Lanka’s exports remains comptetitive. Export earnings, in fact, have recorded an increase, with several sub-categories of exports recording an increasing trend in earnings in recent years

Tea continues to be the key source of export earnings amongst agricultural products. However, earnings from

exports of several other agricultural products have gradually increased over the years.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec

-09

Jul-1

0Fe

b-11

Sep-

11Ap

r-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug-

14M

ar-1

5O

ct-1

5M

ay-1

6D

ec-1

6Ju

l-17

Feb-

18Se

p-18

USD MnTea Exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-

07A

ug-0

7M

ar-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ay-0

9D

ec-0

9Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7Fe

b-18

Sep-

18

USD Mn Exports of Spices

7.6 8.1 7.1

8.6

10.6 9.8

10.4 11.1

10.5 10.3 11.4 11.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

USD Bn.

Total Exports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-

07

Aug

-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec

-09

Jul-1

0

Feb-

11

Sep-

11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13

Jan-

14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7

Feb-

18

Sep-

18

USD MnAgriculutural Exports


Jan-Mar 20197

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan-

07A

ug-0

7M

ar-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ay-0

9D

ec-0

9Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7Fe

b-18

Sep-

18

USD MnExports of Vegetables

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-

07A

ug-0

7M

ar-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ay-0

9D

ec-0

9Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7Fe

b-18

Sep-

18

USD MnExports of Sea Food

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan-

07A

ug-0

7M

ar-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ay-0

9D

ec-0

9Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7Fe

b-18

Sep-

18

USD MnExports of Coconut Products

While industrial exports have increased gradually over the years, exports of textiles and garments continue to be the source of highest export earnings amongst merchandise exports. However, exports of several other industrial products have continued to increase during the past several years.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Jan-

07

Aug

-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec

-09

Jul-1

0

Feb-

11

Sep-

11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13

Jan-

14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7

Feb-

18

Sep-

18

USD Mn Exports of Industrial Products


Jan-Mar 2019

Exports of Leather, travel goods and footwear

02468

101214161820

Jan-

07A

ug-0

7M

ar-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ay-0

9D

ec-0

9Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7Fe

b-18

Sep-

18

USD Mn

050

100150200250300350400450500

Jan-

07

Nov

-07

Sep-

08

Jul-0

9

May

-10

Mar

-11

Jan-

12

Nov

-12

Sep-

13

Jul-1

4

May

-15

Mar

-16

Jan-

17

Nov

-17

Sep-

18

USD Mn Exports of Textiles & Garments

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-

07A

ug-0

7M

ar-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ay-0

9D

ec-0

9Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7Fe

b-18

Sep-

18

USD Mn Exports of Food & Beverages

02468

101214161820

Jan-

07A

ug-0

7M

ar-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ay-0

9D

ec-0

9Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7Fe

b-18

Sep-

18

USD MnExports of Base Metals & Metal Articles

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan-

07A

ug-0

7M

ar-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ay-0

9D

ec-0

9Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7Fe

b-18

Sep-

18

USD MnExports of Plastic & Plastic Articles

0

20

40

60

80

100USD Mn

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec

-09

Jul-1

0Fe

b-11

Sep-

11Ap

r-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug-

14M

ar-1

5O

ct-1

5M

ay-1

6D

ec-1

6Ju

l-17

Feb-

18Se

p-18

Exports of Rubber Products


Jan-Mar 20199

Source of Data on Exports: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Website

4. Our policies have helped manage Imports for the better

In the case of imports, available data suggest that the policy measures taken by the Central Bank recently are likely to have the intended impact without distabilising

imports of necessary items such as intermediate goods, investment goods as well as certain items classified as consumer goods, as can be seen from the following figures. One such policy measure taken was the imposition of regulatory restrictions on the importation of motor vehicles, which are generally used for non-commercial purposes, to be effective from late September 2018 till early March 2019.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-

07A

ug-0

7M

ar-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ay-0

9D

ec-0

9Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7Fe

b-18

Sep-

18

USD Mn

Exports of Machinery & Mechanical Appliances

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan-

07A

ug-0

7M

ar-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ay-0

9D

ec-0

9Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7Fe

b-18

Sep-

18

USD MnExports of Wood & Paper Products

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-

07

Aug

-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec

-09

Jul-1

0

Feb-

11

Sep-

11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13

Jan-

14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7

Feb-

18

Sep-

18

USD Mn.

Expenditure on Imports of Consumer Goods excluding Vehicles


Jan-Mar 2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180Ja

n-07

Aug

-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec

-09

Jul-1

0Fe

b-11

Sep-

11A

pr-1

2N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14A

ug-1

4M

ar-1

5O

ct-1

5M

ay-1

6D

ec-1

6Ju

l-17

Feb-

18Se

p-18

USD Mn.Expenditure on Imports of Vehicles Expenditure on Imports of Medical & Pharmaceutical Items

05

1015

202530

354045

5055

Jan-

07A

ug-0

7M

ar-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ay-0

9D

ec-0

9Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7Fe

b-18

Sep-

18

USD Mn.

050

100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800

Jan-07

Aug-07

Mar-08

Oct-08

May-09

Dec-09

Jul-10

Feb-11

Sep-11

Apr-12

Nov-12

Jun-13

Jan-14

Aug-14

Mar-15

Oct-15

May-16

Dec-16

Jul-17

Feb-18

Sep-18

USD Mn.Expenditure on Imports of Intermediate Goods excluding Fuel

050

100150200250300350400450500550600

Jan-

07A

ug-0

7M

ar-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ay-0

9D

ec-0

9Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7Fe

b-18

Sep-

18

USD Mn. Expenditure on Imports of Fuel


Jan-Mar 201911

Source of Data on Imports: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Website

050

100150200250300350400450500550

Jan-

07

Aug

-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec

-09

Jul-1

0

Feb-

11

Sep-

11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13

Jan-

14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7

Feb-

18

Sep-

18

USD Mn.Expenditure on Imports of Investment Goods

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-

07A

ug-0

7M

ar-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ay-0

9D

ec-0

9Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr

-12

Nov

-12

Jun-

13Ja

n-14

Aug

-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec

-16

Jul-1

7Fe

b-18

Sep-

18

USD Mn.

Expenditure on Imports of Building Material

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-

07Se

p-07

May

-08

Jan-

09Se

p-09

May

-10

Jan-

11Se

p-11

May

-12

Jan-

13Se

p-13

May

-14

Jan-

15Se

p-15

May

-16

Jan-

17Se

p-17

May

-18

USD Mn.

Expenditure on Imports of Transport Equipment

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350Ja

n-07

Aug

-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec

-09

Jul-1

0Fe

b-11

Sep-

11A

pr-1

2N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14A

ug-1

4M

ar-1

5O

ct-1

5M

ay-1

6D

ec-1

6Ju

l-17

Feb-

18Se

p-18

USD Mn.Expenditure on Imports of Machinery & Equipment


Jan-Mar 2019

5. Credit remains buoyant and supportive of economic activity

With respect to macroeconomic outcomes of the monetary policy measures taken by the Central Bank, movements in credit flows and non-performing loans of the banking sector indicate that economic activity

Source of Data: Commercial Banks’ Loans and Advances to the Private Sector, Monthly Bulletin, various Issues, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Website.

Source of Data: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Website

in both agriculture and industry sectors remain bouyant. This in turn has supported the buoyancy of credit granted by banks by way of personal loans and advances.

0123456789

10

-10-505

10152025303540

Mar

-08

Dec

-08

Sep-

09

Jun-

10

Mar

-11

Dec

-11

Sep-

12

Jun-

13

Mar

-14

Dec

-14

Sep-

15

Jun-

16

Mar

-17

Dec

-17

Sep-

18

Per C

ent

Year

-on-

year

Cha

nge

(%)

Private Sector Credit Growth & NPLs

Credit granted to the Private Sector by Commercial Banks (LHS)

Non-performing Loans as a Per Cent of Total Loans and Advances of the Banking Sector (RHS)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep-

13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep-

14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep-

18

Year

-on-

year

Cha

nge

(%)

Loans and Advances granted to the Private Sector by Commercial Banks

Agriculture and Fishing

Industry

Services

Personal Loans and Advances

Total


Jan-Mar 201913

The trends in economic activity as reflected by the trends in credit flows and non-performing loans meanwhile are corroborated by the trends in electricity

Electricity Sales (GWh)Year- on-year Change (%)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1620

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Jan-

Oct

201

8

Total Sales Sales to Industry Sec tor

sales (a commonly used proxy to gauge movements in economic activity, i.e. the GDP), as shown by the figure below.

Source of Data: Annual Reports and Monthly Economic Indicators, various Issues, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Website.

Meanwhile, a comparison of credit obtained by the private sector as at September 2018 (date of latest available data) with the position five years before, i.e., September 2013, indicates that the relative share of credit granted to the industry sector has recorded

a notable increase while the share of credit granted to the services sector has also increased. Within the industry sector, the relative share of construction has increased during this period.


8%

Industry42%

Services28%


22%

Loans and Advances granted to the Private Sector by Commercial Banks - as

at Sep. 2018


13%

Industry35%

Services24%


28%

Loans and Advances granted to the Private Sector by Commercial Banks - as

at Sep. 2013


Jan-Mar 2019

Consumer Durables

18%

Pawning14%

Credit Cards9%

Other59%

Personal Loans and Advances granted by Commercial Banks - as at Sep. 2018

Consumer Durables

11%

Pawning46%

Credit Cards7%

Other36%

Personal Loans and Advances granted by Commercial Banks - as at Sep. 2013

Wholesale and Retail Trade

30%

Tourism12%

Financial and Business Services

25%

Transport5%

Communication & Information Technology

3%

Printing and Publishing

2%

Education 1%

Health 3%

Shipping, Aviation and Supply, and Freight Forwarding

1%

Other18%

Loans and Advances granted to the Services Sector by Commercial Banks - as at Sep. 2018

Wholesale and Retail Trade

35%

Tourism11%

Financial and Business Services

21%

Transport3%

Communication & Information Technology

5%

Printing and Publishing

2%

Education 1%

Health 2%

Shipping, Aviation and Supply, and Freight Forwarding

2%Other18%

Loans and Advances granted to the Services Sector by Commercial Banks - as at Sep. 2013

Tea21%

Rubber8%

Coconut5%

Paddy8%Vegetable and Fruit

Cultivation and Minor Food Crops

7%

Livestock and Dairy Farming

5%

Fisheries4%

Other42%

Loans and Advances granted to the Agriculture Sector by Commercial Banks - as at Sep. 2018

Tea16%

Rubber7%

Coconut2%

Paddy5%

Vegetable and Fruit Cultivation and Minor Food

Crops4%

Livestock and Dairy Farming

3%Fisheries

3%

Other60%

Loans and Advances granted to the Agriculture Sector by Commercial Banks - as at Sep. 2013


Jan-Mar 201915

Construction48%

Food and Beverages5%

Textiles and Apparel8%

Wood and Wood Products including

Furniture1%

Paper and Paper Products1%

Chemical, Petroleum, Pharmaceutical and

Healthcare, and Rubber and Plastic Products

5%

Non-metallic Mineral Products

1%

Basic Metal Products

2%

Fabricated Metal Products, Machinery

and Transport Equipment

9%

Manufactured Products not speci�ed elsewhere

1%Other19%

Loans and Advances granted to the Industry Sector by Commercial Banks - as at Sep. 2018

Construction43%

Food and Beverages7%

Textiles and Apparel12%

Wood and Wood Products including

Furniture1%

Paper and Paper Products1%

Chemical, Petroleum,

Pharmaceutical and Healthcare, and

Rubber and Plastic Products

4%

Non-metallic Mineral Products

1%

Basic Metal Products

1%

Fabricated Metal Products, Machinery and Transport

Equipment9%

Manufactured Products not speci�ed elsewhere

1%

Other20%

Loans and Advances granted to the Industry Sector by Commercial Banks - as at Sep. 2013

6. But, challenging global economic conditions need watching

With respect to market interest rates, which the Central Bank manoeuvres to achieve its objective of price stability, conditions in domestic markets as well as international markets resulted in increases in market interest rates during several periods in the past. These situations however, were managed by the Central

Bank so as to ensure that monetary conditions became conducive for economic activity. Consequently, the Average Weighted Lending Rate (AWLR), which reflects the movement of interest rates pertaining to the entire lending portfolio of commercial banks, has remained at levels below 15 per cent in the past several years.

Source of Data: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

456789101112131415161718192021222324

Jan-

00Ju

n-00

Nov

-00

Apr-0

1Se

p-01

Feb-

02Ju

l-02

Dec

-02

May

-03

Oct

-03

Mar

-04

Aug-

04Ja

n-05

Jun-

05N

ov-0

5Ap

r-06

Sep-

06Fe

b-07

Jul-0

7D

ec-0

7M

ay-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ar-0

9Au

g-09

Jan-

10Ju

n-10

Nov

-10

Apr-1

1Se

p-11

Feb-

12Ju

l-12

Dec

-12

May

-13

Oct

-13

Mar

-14

Aug-

14Ja

n-15

Jun-

15N

ov-1

5Ap

r-16

Sep-

16Fe

b-17

Jul-1

7D

ec-1

7M

ay-1

8O

ct-1

8

Per c

ent

Domestic Interest Rates

364-day Treasury bill yield rateAWDRAWLR

Penal RateRepo Rate/SDFRRev. Repo Rate/SLFR

Source of Data: Commercial Banks' Loans and Advances to the Private Sector, Monthly Bulletin, various Issues, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Website.


Jan-Mar 2019

However, the gradual tightening of monetary conditions globally alongside the strengthening of advanced economies and the steps they took to normalise their monetary policy stance resulted in considerable pressure on the monetary conditions of emerging market economies and developing nations, during 2018. More recently, however, the slowing down of global economic activity and the ongoing geopolitical issues the world faces, have taken centre stage. These dynamics would continue to pose challenges, requiring the Central Bank of Sri Lanka to carefully calibrate its policy setting on a continuous basis.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan

-07

Dec

-07

Nov

-08

Oct

-09

Sep

-10

Au

g-11

Jul-

12

Jun

-13

May

-14

Ap

r-15

Mar

-16

Feb

-17

Jan

-18

Dec

-18

Per c

ent

Selected East & Southeast Asian Countries - Policy Interest Rates

Korea - Base rate Thailand - Repurchase Rate

Malaysia - Overnight Policy Rate Indonesia - BI rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-

07

Dec

-07

Nov

-08

Oct

-09

Sep-

10

Aug-

11

Jul-1

2

Jun-

13

May

-14

Apr-

15

Mar

-16

Feb-

17

Jan-

18

Dec

-18

Per c

ent

Selected South Asian Countries - Policy Interest Rates

Pakistan - SBP Policy Rate

India - Repo Rate

Sri Lanka - Standing Lending Facility Rate

Sources of Data: Websites of central banks

Published by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Janadhipathi Mawatha, Colombo 1, Sri LankaPrinted at the Central Bank Printing Press, 58, Sri Jayewardenepura Mawatha, Rajagiriya, Kotte, Sri Lanka

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan-

07

Dec

-07

Nov

-08

Oct

-09

Sep-

10

Aug-

11

Jul-1

2

Jun-

13

May

-14

Apr-

15

Mar

-16

Feb-

17

Jan-

18

Dec

-18

Per c

ent

Selected Advanced Economies - Policy Interest Rates

Japan - Target for uncollaterized overnight call rate

Euro Area - Main re�nancing operations minimum

UK - Bank Rate

USA - Federal funds target rate

bid rate

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