lessons from the nisqually earthquake for pbee
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Lessons from the Nisqually Earthquake for PBEE. Stephanie E. Chang. PBEE Premise. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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PPEEEERR
2002 PEER Annual Meeting
Lessons from the Nisqually Earthquake for PBEE
Stephanie E. Chang
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PBEE Premise
• “Performance-based earthquake engineering implies design, evaluation, and construction of engineered facilities whose performance under common and extreme loads responds to the diverse needs and objectives of owner-users and society. PBEE is based on the premise that performance can be predicted and evaluated with sufficient confidence for the engineer and client jointly to make intelligent and informed decisions...” (Krawinkler, 1999)
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Nisqually Earthquake Study
• 2 business districts• “Complete” sample
– 107 businesses in 62 bldgs.
• In-person, structured interviews:– business info – damage type / cost– financing repair – business interruption– mitigations
Pioneer Square
SoDo
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Costs and Stakeholders
Type of Cost Who bears the cost?
Structural repair cost Building owner
Non-structural repair cost Building owner -windows, light fixtures, etc
Business owner – inventory, machinery, furnishings
Lifelines
Building owner, Local Government, and Utilities
Revenue Loss
Business interruption
Loss of customers
Business owner
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1. Hidden costs and consequences are very important.
Damage Type Count
Business closure (temp.) 81
Short-term revenue loss 54
Structural damage (bl.) 53
Damage to inventory 50
Non-str. dmg. (windows,…) 32
“Lifeline” disruption 21
Long-term revenue loss 14 (~25)
Damage to furnishings 8
Damage to equipment 5
Injury to employees 0
What kinds of impacts…? (N=107)
89% because of “lack of customers”;87% are retail
93% because of “loss of customer base”;86% are retail
46% had no structural damage
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Hidden costs (cont’d)
How will you pay for…?…damage
(N=67)
…business interruption loss
(N=63)
Insurance 6 % 5 %
SBA loan 9 % 10 %
Commercial loan 3 % 5 %
Business reserves / self-insured 51 % 55 %
Out-of-pocket 28 % 22 %
Unsure 3 % 5 %
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Building
Damage
Yes No No, w/response
costs
Not yet reopen
Total (no.bus.)
Red tag 60% 20% 0% 20% 100% (10)
Yellow 39% 54% 0% 7% 100% (28)
Green 52% 44% 4% 0% 100% (54)
Not inspected
57% 43% 0% 0% 100% (14)
2. Structural damage is a very imprecise predictor of business impacts.
Short-term revenue loss?
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Damage as Predictor (cont’d)
Sector
Yes No No, w/response
costs
Not yet reopen
Total (no.bus.)
Retail 57% 29% 0% 14% 100% (14)
Manuf. or service
23% 77% 0% 0% 100% (13)
Short-term revenue loss?
Yellow-tag building occupants only:
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3. Externality effects can be a major source of loss.
A. Own-business problems– Financing (11)
– Permits for repair (5)
– Dislocation (3)
_____
19
B. Externality-type problems– Customer loss (11)– Street closure – parking
(11)– Media perception (6)– 1st Ave. parking lane (4)– Return to status quo
(parking/attitudes…) (2)– Ongoing Repairs in area (6)
_____ 40
Most important recovery problem?
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Pioneer Square (Jackson St./Fenix Bl.)
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SoDo (buslane)
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Lessons for PBEE
• Selection of appropriate decision variable(s) (e.g., annual loss, exceedance of limit states) is highly complex and ambiguous.– Multiple relevant categories of loss– Difficult to predict & loosely correlated with
structural damage state– Different stakeholder perspectives
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Lessons (cont’d)
• Need to recognize high degree of uncertainty.– As important for DV as for damage and
intensity prediction.– Need much more empirical data, model
validation.
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Lessons (cont’d)
• Divergence between public and private objectives should be considered.– Impacts of performance decisions on neighbors,
local area.– Role of public sector?