lessons from developments in the past ten years – gb experience alison kay – national grid,...
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Lessons from developments in the past ten years – GB experience
Alison Kay – National Grid, Transmission Commercial Director
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Contents
Influential developments in the GB gas market
What changes have these developments brought?
Lessons from our experience to date
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Influential Developments on the GB market
Declining UK gas production
Rising demand
Establishment of competition
Full ownership unbundling
Globalisation of the gas market
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Bacton
Theddlethorpe
Easington
St Fergus
Teesside
recent projects & investment
Isle of Grain
BBL
IUK
Milford Haven
DragonSouth Hook
New Southern Basin storage developments
New Continental link
Barrow
New Norway
West of Shetland
future investment
potential new projects
GB marketFLAGS
Langeled
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17
Sup
ply
/ Dem
and
(bcm
/y)
UKCS Norw ay Continent LNG UK Demand exc IUK
Actuals Forecast
Base Case Annual Supply Forecast
What physical changes have these developments brought?
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Bacton
Theddlethorpe
Easington
St Fergus
Barrow
Teesside
Frigg (Norway)North-South Flow
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Bacton
Theddlethorpe
Easington
St Fergus
Barrow
Milford Haven
New Norway
New Southern Basin storage developments
Teesside
Isle of Grain
Milford Haven
Tampen
Langeled
BBL
DragonSouth Hook
New Continental link
West of Shetland
IUK
Multi-directional Flow
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What commercial changes have these developments brought?
Approximately 70 shippers active on the system
Liquid hub for trading gas
Sophistication of commercial arrangements Reform driven by market players Market based planning, with long term user commitments key High levels of transparency
Increasingly European-wide legislation
Increased focus on Security of SupplyUniform
Network
Code
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Lessons learned from experience to date
An understanding of our role as market facilitator Providing a reliable and accessible service, information required by
the market, ensuring a level playing field The need to work with market players to provide information
and make improvements in our regime The importance of making timely and appropriate investments The importance of being up to date with, anticipate and
influence developments The requirement to foster relationships on both a national and
international level
However we need to be cautious of over complicating the commercial regime
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Conclusion
There have been extensive changes in the past ten years to both commercial and physical aspects of the GB regime
We are likely to see as many, if not more, changes over the coming years
The European dimension will be increasingly influential and important
National Grid looks forward to working with the other European TSOs and stakeholders to further this in
the most beneficial manner to the European market