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    Dr. Pham Huynh TramDepartment of ISE

    [email protected]

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    Review of basic probability & statistics- Probability- Types of data-

    Describing dataStabilizing and improving a process with controlcharts

    - Needs of control chart

    - Structure of control chart- Rules of identifying out-of-control point- Possible mistakes un using control chart

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    Example: a bin contains 4000 screws; 2000 are good and2000 are defective

    What is the probability of drawing a defective screw?- Classical probability- Relative frequency probability- Difference?

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    Sub-group

    No. ofdefective

    Fraction ofdefective

    Cummulativeno. ofdefective

    Cummulativeno. of screw

    Cummulativeof fraction

    1234567

    Subgroup size :50

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    Pupose of collecting data? Attribute data

    - Classificaion of items into categories. Eg.: grade A, B, C- Counts of the number of items in a given category or a

    proportion in a given category- Counts of the number of occurrences per unit . Eg.: no. ofdefects per batch, no. of sales per month Variables (measurment) data

    - Measurement of a characteristic. Eg.: length of time toresolve customer complaint, weights of boxes of detergent

    - Computation of Numerical Value from two or moremeasurements of variables data. Eg.: computation of arectangular containe, km per litre for each truck

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    For frequency distributionTabular displaysGraphical displays

    - Histogram (variable data)- Bar chart (attribute data)- Ogive- Run chart

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    The number of intervalsinfluences the pattern, shape, or spreadof your Histogram.

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    Run chart

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    Mode = 16

    The mode is the most frequently occurring value. It is the value with the highest frequency .

    Given a data set:9, 10, 6, 12, 16, 14, 19, 20, 14, 15, 22, 24, 13, 16, 17, 5, 17, 18,19, 18, 16, 22

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    The mean of a set of observations is theiraverage - the sum of the observed values dividedby the number of observations.

    Population Mean Sample Mean

    m = = x

    N i

    N

    1 x

    x

    n i

    n

    = =

    1

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    Range Difference between maximum and minimum values

    VarianceMean * squared deviation from the meanStandard Deviation

    Square root of the variance

    Definitions of population variance and sample variance differ slightly .

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    Find the sample mean and sample variance forthe following series of data:

    Value

    21

    12

    34

    22

    17

    18

    43

    28

    56

    34

    12

    Practice with Calculator !!

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    Skewness Measure of asymmetry of a frequency distribution

    Skewed to leftSymmetric or unskewedSkewed to right

    KurtosisMeasure of flatness or peakedness of a frequencydistribution

    Platykurtic (relatively flat)Mesokurtic (normal)Leptokurtic (relatively peaked)

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    Skewed to left

    6 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0

    3 0

    2 0

    1 0

    0

    x

    F r e

    q u e n c y

    Mean < median < mode

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    Mean = median = mode

    6 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0

    x

    3 0

    2 0

    1 0

    0

    F r e

    q

    u e n c y

    Symmetric

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    3 . 7 2 . 9 2 . 1 1 . 3 0 . 5 - 0 . 3 - 1 . 1 - 1 . 9 - 2 . 7 - 3 . 5

    7 0 0

    6 0 0

    5 0 0

    4 0 0

    3 0 0

    2 0 0

    1 0 0

    0

    X

    F r e

    q u e n c y

    Platykurtic - flat distribution

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    4 3 2 1 0 - 1 - 2 - 3 - 4

    5 0 0

    4 0 0

    3 0 0

    2 0 0

    1 0 0

    0

    X

    F r e

    q u e n c y

    Mesokurtic - not too flat and not too peaked

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    Leptokurtic - peaked distribution

    1 0 0 - 1 0

    2 0 0 0

    1 0 0 0

    0

    Y

    F r e

    q u e n c y

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    Normal distributionCalculate probabilitySkewed distribution

    Unknown distribution

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    1 1

    21

    14

    34

    75%

    1 1

    31

    1

    9

    8

    9 89%

    1 1

    41

    116

    1516

    94%

    2

    2

    2

    = = =

    = = =

    = = =

    At least of the elements of any distribution lie within k standard deviations of the mean

    2

    11

    k

    Atleast

    Lie within

    Standarddeviations

    of the mean

    2

    3

    4

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    Control charts are constructed by drawing samples andtaking measurements of a process characteristics. Each setof measurements is called a subgroupControl charts help to

    - identify and differentiate between common causes andspecial causes of variation- determine a processs capability

    Process is stable if it only exhibits common cause variation

    When a process is stable, continuous improvement helps tobring the centerline of the process closer to a desired level(nominal) by reducing the magnitude of common cause variations

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    -Centerline: drawn at the average value of all the plotted data.

    -Control Limits (UCL, LCL): set at a distance of 3 sigma above and 3sigma below the centerline. They indicate variation from the centerline

    * Difference between control limits and specification limits ?27

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    31

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    32

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    Rule 5: 8 or more successive values continually increase

    or decrease

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    Rule 6: unusual small number of runs above and below

    center line are present ( a sawtooth pattern)

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    Rule 7: 13 consecutive points fall in zone C

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    Over adjustmentProcess should be adjusted not on the basis of time-to-

    time observations, but on the basis of informationprovided by a statistical control chart

    Funnel experimentUnder adjustment

    Lack of attention when the process is out of control and

    no effort is made to provide neccesary regulation

    *Also, becareful on false out-of control signal

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    Defect prevention: atribute chartP chart, mp chart, c chart, u chart

    Continuous improvement: variable control chart

    X bar chart, R chart, MR chart, s chart