lesson 4: sports betting · lesson 4: sports betting lesson goal: to determine the chance of...
TRANSCRIPT
Lesson 4: Sports betting
Lesson goal:
To determine the chance of winning if the payout is high.
Through activities, simulations and discussions, you will learn that:
• there is a difference in potential winnings if a betting agency is involved
or if it is not
• higher payouts are matched with lower probabilities of winning.
Through this lesson we are going to do the following:
Tune in – background information
Class simulations:
• Even chances: use a coin or sports betting agency spreadsheet – Sports betting
(other) tab
• One chance in four: use a pack of cards or sports betting agency spreadsheet –
Sports betting (other) tab
• Soccer matches: use sports betting agency spreadsheet – Sports betting (soccer) tab
We will require the following worksheets:
• Student record sheet: Sports betting simulation
• Student worksheet 13 Sports betting
Even chances – class simulation
Two equally good teams, Matildas and USA
Two students
One student bets $1 on the Matildas
The other bets $1 on USA
1. What is the probability of each team winning?
2. What is the payout for each team?
3. What might the payouts be if a betting agency that kept 5%
was involved?
One chance in four – class simulation
Diamond or not diamond?
One card chosen from a pack
Four students
One student bets a $1 on a diamond
Three students bet a $1 each on not a diamond
1. What is the probability of a diamond ‘winning’?
2. What is the probability of a diamond ‘losing’ (not being selected)?
3. How much should the payout be for a diamond win?
4. How much should each of the other three students be paid if a diamond loses?
5. What payouts (in dollars) should be given for diamond vs not diamond?
6. What might the payouts be if a betting agency that keeps 15% was involved?
Soccer matches – class simulation
Australia vs Japan
20 students
$10 each to bet
15 bet on Australia
5 bet on Japan
No students bet on a draw
1. Does that mean that Australia is three times more likely to win than Japan?
2. Does that mean that Australia has three chances out of four of winning,
a probability of ¾?
Key message
Higher payouts are matched with lower probabilities of winning.
Review your understanding:
1. Do you agree with this statement? Explain your answer.
2. How would you explain the meaning of this statement to someone else who didn’t
understand its meaning?
3. Why would a betting agency offer a large payout on something that is unlikely to
happen?
4. Explain one other thing that you have learnt in this lesson.