leo separovic, ramon de elia and rene laprise
DESCRIPTION
First results and methodological approach to parameter perturbations in GEM-LAM simulations PART II. Leo Separovic, Ramon de Elia and Rene Laprise. Reduction of domain size. Integral. 58. 140x140. 55. 15. 70x92. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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First results and methodological approach to parameter perturbations
in GEM-LAM simulationsPART II
Leo Separovic, Ramon de Elia and Rene Laprise
2
Reduction of domain size
140x140
70x92
100x100
~5500km 30x52
• Integral
• Core only
55 15
58
Core of the small domain and the common region used to compute grid statistics in the following
3
GZ850
DJF MMA JJA SON DJF MMA JJA SON
P -P +
• Statistical significance: RMS (t) over the small-domain core area(-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048
4
GZ850
Error
P -P +
DJF MMA JJA SON DJF MMA JJA SON
• Error magnitude: 2xRMS standard deviation of the ensemble average
• Signal magnitude: RMSD between reference and perturbed-parameter ensemble averages; (-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048
5
90.0
95.0
97.5
99.0
99.5
99.9
99.9
99.5
99.0
97.5
95.0
90.0
GZ850: WKLCL(-), JJAInternal variability
signal
SL
SL
SL
Rejection level for H0
%
6
PCP
DJF MMA JJA SON DJF MMA JJA SON
P -P +
• Statistical significance: RMS (t) over the small-domain core area(-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048
7
PCP
DJF MMA JJA SON DJF MMA JJA SON
Error
P -P +
• Error magnitude: 2 x RMS standard deviation of the ensemble average• Signal magnitude: RMSD between reference and perturbed-parameter
ensemble averages; (-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048
8
90.0
95.0
97.5
99.0
99.5
99.9
99.9
99.5
99.0
97.5
95.0
90.0
PCP: WKLCL(+), JJAInternal variability
signal
SL
SL
SL
Rejection level for H0
%
9
TTscn
DJF MMA JJA SON DJF MMA JJA SON
P -P +
• Statistical significance: RMS (t) over the small-domain core area(-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048
10
TTscn
DJF MMA JJA SON DJF MMA JJA SON
Error
P -P +
• Error magnitude: 2 x RMS standard deviation of the ensemble average
• Signal magnitude: RMSD between reference and perturbed-parameter ensemble averages; (-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048
11
90.0
95.0
97.5
99.0
99.5
99.9
99.9
99.5
99.0
97.5
95.0
90.0
TTscn: WKLCL(-), JJAInternal variability
signal
L
SL
SL
SL
Rejection level for H0
%
12
Future work
• Add an intermediate domain;
• Repeat the study for singleton perturbations of the threshold relative humidity for the onset of precipitation;
• Study synchronous perturbations of the two parameters;
• (Non)linearity of the model response to multiple perturbations and domain size.
Alexandru et al. (2007)