lehman brothers european investment banking conference amelia c. fawcett chief administrative...
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Lehman Brothers European Investment Banking Conference
Amelia C. FawcettChief Administrative Officer (Europe)February 8, 2002
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Notice
This presentation by Morgan Stanley is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Agenda
Morgan Stanley in Europe
Secular Trends and Firm Strategy
Culture as a Competitive Differentiator
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Our Business in EuropeFull Line of Financial Services
Morgan Stanley
InternationalPWM
Investment Banking
Fixed Income
Investment Management
Private Equity Group
Institutional Securities
Individual Investor Group
InvestmentManagement
Consumer Banking Group
Consumer Banking Group
International
Equity
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
European Presence
UK (1977)
France (1990)
Germany (1987)
Ireland (1998)
Italy (1989)
Luxembourg (1989)
Netherlands (1997)
Portugal (2000)
Russia (1994)
Spain (1993/1999)
Sweden (1999)
Switzerland (1986)
Israel (2001)
South Africa (1994)
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Revenues and PBT for Morgan Stanley Europe
Revenues and PBT
(US$ MM)
Source Morgan Stanley 10-K Filings and Morgan Stanley
PBT CAGR 1996-2001: 28%
1,429
328
1,757
399
2,867
1,146
3,848
1,364
5,054
1,646
3,986
1,146
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Revenues PBT
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Headcount vs. PBT
Indexed
Growth in European Headcount and PBT
Source Morgan Stanley
100 100 100
326
251
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1996 2001
PBT Headcount Headcount Excl. Acquisitions
349
100 100 100
326
251
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1996 2001
PBT Headcount Headcount Excl. Acquisitions
349
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Efficiency Gains in Securities Processing
Morgan Stanley Institutional Securities Trading Volume and Cost per Trade
Indexed, Global
Source Morgan Stanley
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
GrossVolumes
OperationsExpenses
Cost per Trade0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
GrossVolumes
OperationsExpenses
Cost per Trade
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
The Competitive Landscape - Europe
Announced European M&A
2001 Market Share
European Equity Issues (1)
% of US$ Volume
European SecuritizationInternational Bonds
Note 1. Includes Equity and Equity Linked issues
Source Thomson Financial (M&A), Thomson Financial/IFR (Equity), Dealogic/Bondware (Bonds), Euroweek and Morgan Stanley (Securitization)
11.6
8.6 8.3 8.1 7.6
Citi MS DB JPM ML
9.7 9.2
7.1
5.1 4.9
Citi CSFB BNP MS DB
24.322.2 21.0
18.816.1
GS MS ML UBSW JPM
12.7 12.1 11.6
9.2 8.6
ML MS UBSW DB GS
11.6
8.6 8.3 8.1 7.6
Citi MS DB JPM ML
9.7 9.2
7.1
5.1 4.9
Citi CSFB BNP MS DB
24.322.2 21.0
18.816.1
GS MS ML UBSW JPM
12.7 12.1 11.6
9.2 8.6
ML MS UBSW DB GS
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
The Competitive Landscape - Europe1997 - 2001 Market Share
European SecuritizationInternational Bonds
Source Thomson Financial (M&A), Thomson Financial/IFR (Equity), Dealogic/Bondware (Bonds), Euroweek and Morgan Stanley (Securitization)
% of US$ Volume
Announced European M&A European Equity Issues (1)
Note 1. Includes Equity and Equity Linked issues
8.67.9 7.4 7.2 7.1
ML MS Citi DB JPM
5.9 5.8
4.4 4.4 4.3
MS Citi DB BNP JPM
34.1 32.0
21.6 21.3 18.8
GS MS JPM ML UBSW
13.5 13.311.2 11
7.8
MS GS UBSW ML CSFB
8.67.9 7.4 7.2 7.1
ML MS Citi DB JPM
5.9 5.8
4.4 4.4 4.3
MS Citi DB BNP JPM
34.1 32.0
21.6 21.3 18.8
GS MS JPM ML UBSW
13.5 13.311.2 11
7.8
MS GS UBSW ML CSFB
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Global Secular Trends and Firm StrategyInstitutional Investors
Low cost positions in commodity products Highest quality in complex products Innovation of new products/services Leading intermediary across geography and products
Morgan Stanley Strategy
Higher penetration of financial markets in commerce Continued growth in global trading in financial markets Pressure on margins
Secular Trends
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Global Secular Trends and Firm StrategyCorporate Clients
Unique global network of information/contacts for our clients Most experienced professionals to help solve complex problems
and create opportunities for clients Culture and incentive system which dedicates the entire firm to
client objectives
Morgan Stanley Strategy
Secular Trends
Globalization of industry sectors Restructuring of selected economic areas Disintermediation of banks
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Growth in European Securities Trading
Average Combined Daily Volume of Major European Stock Exchanges
US$ Bn
Source Morgan Stanley and Stock Exchanges
’95-’01 22%
CAGR
1013
18 21
28
39
33
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
UK GER FRA ITL CH NL ESP SWE
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Growth in European Equity Markets
New Equity Issuance Volumes
US$ Bn
Source Thomson Financial Securities Data
’92-’01 27%
CAGR
8
4152
46
62
98102
127145
70
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
UK Germany France Italy Spain
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization as a Percentage of GDP
2001
Source Thomson Financial Securities Data, OECD/FactSet
123
73
89
56 51
US EU15 UK France Italy Germany
161
123
73
89
56 51
US EU15 UK France Italy Germany
161
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Growth in European Debt Markets
Debt Issuance by European Corporates, Issues >€750 MM
12 Months Moving Average of Volume, US$ Bn per Month
Source Thomson Financial Securities Data
’97-’01 80%
CAGR (1)
Note 1. CAGR of full year volume of debt issuance
0
5
10
15
20
25
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
EMU
DeutscheTelekomLaunch
Sept 11
0
5
10
15
20
25
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
EMUEMU
DeutscheTelekomLaunch
DeutscheTelekomLaunch
Sept 11Sept 11
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Composition of Debt Markets
Source Thomson Financial Securities Data
EU 1999 EU 2001 US 2001
Outstanding Bonds by Rating
AA/AAA75%
BBB/A25% BBB/A
39%
AA/AAA61%
BBB/A65%
AA/AAA35%
AA/AAA75%
BBB/A25% BBB/A
39%
AA/AAA61%
BBB/A65%
AA/AAA35%
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Disintermediation in the US
Percent of Private Non-financial Debt Outstanding
%
Source Federal Reserve Board
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Intermediated Through Depository Institutions Intermediated Through Securities Markets
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Intermediated Through Depository InstitutionsIntermediated Through Depository Institutions Intermediated Through Securities MarketsIntermediated Through Securities Markets
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Disintermediation Underway in Europe
Corporate Debt in Euroland
%
Source ECB
Bonds (Left Scale)
15
17
19
21
23
25
75
77
79
81
83
85
Loans (Right Scale)Bonds (Left Scale)Bonds (Left Scale)
15
17
19
21
23
25
75
77
79
81
83
85
Loans (Right Scale)Loans (Right Scale)
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Growth in European Mergers & Acquisitions
Announced Transactions
US$ Bn
Source Thomson Financial Securities Data and Morgan Stanley
’92-’01 15%
CAGR
153 141 141277
380537
818
1,521
1,012
549
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Friendly Neutral Hostile
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Delivering the Firm for Corporate Clients
France Telecom Orange IPO and Exchangeable Bond Convertible
Vivendi Universal Acquisition of USA Networks
BT Wireless Demerger (mmO2) Bond
Arbed and Aceralia Merger with Usinor
General Healthcare Securitisation
22
This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Innovation: Prime Brokerage Business
Morgan Stanley Prime Brokerage Net Revenues
Indexed, Global
Net Revenues
1995-2001 CAGR: 23%
Source Morgan Stanley
0
100
200
300
400
500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Innovation: Credit Derivatives Business
Morgan Stanley Credit Derivatives Revenues
Indexed, Global
Source Morgan Stanley
100%
254%
2000 2001
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
European Market Conditions
46%52%
25% 56%
Source Thomson Financial Securities Data
Market Conditions 2001 vs. 2000
Announced M&A Volume
Completed M&A VolumeDebt Underwriting
Equity Underwriting
% Change in US$ Volume
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
European Secular TrendsSecular Fundamentals Remain
Equification
“Debtification”
Restructuring
Pension Reform
Fiscal Reform
Europe is one of our great globalopportunities
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This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented on February 8, 2002.
Requirements for Success
“By general consensus in the investment banking community, there is something special about Morgan Stanley's London office”
“…what keeps them here is a team culture, a sense that this is a meritocracy…”
Fortune, Best Companies to Work for – 10 Great Companies in Europe
(February 4, 2002)
Importance of Culture
“…[Morgan Stanley’s] recent success has been nothing short of sensational.”
“Several employees in our survey praise Morgan Stanley for being a meritocracy.”
The Sunday Times, 50 Best Companies to Work for 2001
(February 4, 2001)
Lehman Brothers European Investment Banking Conference
Amelia C. FawcettChief Administrative Officer (Europe)February 8, 2002