leger marketing inc. poll

8/7/2019 Leger Marketing Inc. poll

1/16

February 2010

Confidential


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2

Methodology Political Landscape

Leadership Races

Threats to the BC Liberal Coalition


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511 voters in British Columbia were surveyed

between February 15

th

and 16

th

, 2010. This gives a margin of error of +/- 4.3%,nineteen times out of twenty.

Results were weighted according to age andgender by region from the most recent census

data and by past voting behaviour. Survey was conducted online using LegerMarketings LegerWeb.com panel.

Region Sample Size* Margin of ErrorVancouver and Metro North 165 +/- 7.6%

Valley and Metro South 140 +/- 8.3%

Interior and North 93 +/- 10.2%

Vancouver Island 113 +/- 9.2%*these sample sizes are the raw number of interviews conducted in each region, for the final analysisthe regions were weighted to represent their actual proportion of voters


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5/16

Parties deadlocked until newleaders are elected


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The NDP have a small lead within the margin oferror.

Essentially the political system in BC is on holduntil both the BC Liberals and BC NDP elect new

leaders. Despite Campbells resignation the BC Liberals

have lost ground on the right to the BCConservatives, who are consistently in the 5%range.

The NDP leads in all areas of the province. The province is split by gender with the NDP

much more popular with women and the BCLiberals far ahead with men.


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2% 2%5% 2%

15%

8%

41%

42%

37%46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

February 2011 2009 Election

BC LiberalsBC NDP

Green Party

BC Conservatives

Others

To avoid confusion with the Conservative Party of Canada voters were not prompted with the option ofthe BC Conservatives, only after they chose Other Party were they given the choices of BC Conservative

Party, Independent candidate or the Libertarian Party.


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2% 1% 3% 3% 1%5% 6% 4%

10%

2%

15% 18% 18%16%

10%

41%47%

33%

38%

46%

37%29%

42%33%

41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

All BC Vancouver

Island

Interior - North Valley - Metro

South

Vancouver -

Metro North

BC LiberalsBC NDP

Green Party

BC Conservatives

Others


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9

2% 4% 0%5%

5%5%

15% 16%14%

41% 31%50%

37%44%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

All Voters Men Women

BC LiberalsBC NDP

Green Party

BC Conservatives

Others


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Christy Clark turns off a largesegment of the BC Liberalbase


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Fully one quarter of BC Liberal voters say that ChristyClark as leader would make them lesslikely to voteBC Liberal. This number is higher amongst women. Abbott and Falcon tie with only about 8.5% choosing each

of them.

Clarks election as leader would cause a significantportion of the electorate and BC Liberal base toconsider the BC Conservatives. This sentiment is strongest in the Valley & Metro South

region.

Clarks proximity to Ignatieffs federal Liberals ismore of an issue for BC Liberal voters than Falconsproximity to Harpers federal Conservatives. However, NDP voters are more likely to be concerned with

Falcons federal ties.


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25%

22%

28%

8%10%

6%

9%7%

10%

5%4%

7%

9% 8%9%

7%

10%

2%

All BC Liberal Voters Men Women

Christy Clark Kevin Falcon George Abbott Mike De Jong Moira Stillwell Ed Mayne

Respondents were also offered the choice of None of them which was chosen by 38%.


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23%

29%

20%

31%

35%

35%

21%

22%

18%

12%

10%

12%

All Voters BC Liberals BC NDP

Not worried at all Not very worried Moderately worried Very worried

22%

38%

13%

29%

34%

23%

22%

16%

29%

13%

8%

23%

All Voters BC Liberals BC NDP

Some people say that Christy Clark is too close MichaelIgnatieffsfederalLiberals, while others say that Kevin Falcon is too close to Stephen Harpers

federal Conservatives.

How worried are you about Christy Clark beingtoo close to Michael Ignatieffs federal Liberals? How worried are you about Kevin Falcon being tooclose to Stephen Harpers federal Conservatives?


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45% 42%

19% 25%

11%15%

8%6%

All Voters BC LiberalsI would not consider voting for the BC Conservative Party

I would slightly consider voting for the BC Conservative Party

I would strongly consider voting for the BC Conservative Party

I would certainly vote for the BC Conservative Party

Represents 7.7% of voters BC

Liberals cannot win without them


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45% 42% 43% 40%

57%

19% 22%

13%

28%

13%

11% 13%

16%

5%10%

8% 7%9% 10%

7%

All Voters Vancouver - Metro

North

Valley - Metro South Interior - North Vancouver Island

I would not consider voting for the BC Conservative Party

I would slightly consider voting for the BC Conservative Party

I would strongly consider voting for the BC Conservative Party

I would certainly vote for the BC Conservative Party


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The BC Liberals face a significant threat from the

right if Christy Clark is elected leader. The current political situation in BC gives neither

party an advantage but the choice of leader willhave a significant impact.

25% of BC Liberal voters say that Christy Clark is thecandidate who makes them less likely to vote BCLiberal in the next election. This is more significant among women, who an already

dangerously alienated part of the BC Liberal voter base.

21% of BC Liberal voters would vote or stronglyconsider voting for the BC Conservatives if Clark

becomes leader. 32% of BC Liberal voters are very or moderately

worried by Clarks ties to the federal Liberals,compared to 24% who are very or morderatelyworried by Falcons ties to the federal Conservatives.

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