LeeKuanYew

TheBelferCenterStudies in InternationalSecuritybookseries iseditedat theBelfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard KennedySchool and is published by The MIT Press. The series publishes books oncontemporaryissuesininternationalsecuritypolicy,aswellastheirconceptualandhistoricalfoundations.Topicsofparticularinteresttotheseriesincludethespreadofweaponsofmassdestruction,internalconflict,theinternationaleffectsofdemocracyanddemocratization,andU.S.defensepolicy.AcompletelistofBelferCenterStudiesappearshere.

LeeKuanYew

TheGrandMaster’sInsightsonChina,the

UnitedStates,andtheWorld

InterviewsandSelectionsbyGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill

withAliWyne

ForewordbyHenryA.Kissinger

BelferCenterStudiesinInternationalSecurityTheMITPress

Cambridge,MassachusettsLondon,England

©2013BelferCenterforScienceandInternationalAffairsAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyformbyanyelectronicormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinformationstorageandretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.

LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData

Lee,KuanYew,1923–[Interviews.Selections]

LeeKuanYew:thegrandmaster'sinsightsonChina,theUnitedStates,andtheworld/interviewsandselectionsbyGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill;withAliWyne;forewordbyHenryA.Kissinger.

p.cm.—(Belfercenterstudiesininternationalsecurity)Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.

ISBN978-0-262-01912-5(hardcover:alk.paper)ISBN978-0-262-31274-5(retaile-book)1.Worldpolitics.I.Allison,GrahamT.II.Blackwill,RobertD.III.Wyne,Ali,1987–IV.Title.

D31.L442013303.4909'0512—dc23

2012032250

1098

Contents

Foreword,HenryA.KissingerWhoIsLeeKuanYew?WhenLeeKuanYewTalks,WhoListens?Preface

Chapter1TheFutureofChina

Chapter2TheFutureoftheUnitedStates

Chapter3TheFutureofU.S.-ChinaRelations

Chapter4TheFutureofIndia

Chapter5TheFutureofIslamicExtremism

Chapter6TheFutureofNationalEconomicGrowth

Chapter7TheFutureofGeopoliticsandGlobalization

Chapter8TheFutureofDemocracy

Chapter9HowLeeKuanYewThinks

Chapter10ConclusionNotesAbouttheBelferCenterforScienceandInternationalAffairs

Foreword

I have had the privilege of meeting many world leaders over the past halfcentury;none,however,has taughtmemore thanLeeKuanYew,Singapore’sfirst premier and its guiding spirit ever since. As to the ancient argument—whether individuals shape events or are their register—there can be no doubtabouttheanswerwithregardtoLeeKuanYew,amanofunmatchedintelligenceandjudgment.

Byfar thesmallestcountryinSoutheastAsia,Singaporeseemeddestinedtobecomeaclientstateofmorepowerfulneighbors,ifindeeditcouldpreserveitsindependenceatall.Leethoughtotherwise.Hisvisionwasofastatethatwouldnot simply survive, but prevail by excelling. Superior intelligence, discipline,andingenuitywouldsubstituteforresources.Hesummonedhiscompatriotstoadutythattheyhadneverpreviouslyperceived:firsttocleanuptheircity,thentodedicate it to overcome the initial hostility of their neighbors and their ownethnic divisions by superior performance. The Singapore of today is histestament.

WhenLeetookover,percapitaincomewasabout$400ayear;itisnowmorethan$50,000.Heinspiredhispolyglotpopulationtobecometheintellectualandtechnicalcenterof theAsia-Pacific.Becauseofhis leadership,amedium-sizedcity has become a significant international and economic player, especially infosteringmultilateraltranspacificties.

Along theway,Leehasmadehimselfan indispensable friendof theUnitedStates, not primarily by the power he represents, but by the excellence of histhinking.Hisanalysisisofsuchqualityanddepththathiscounterpartsconsidermeetingwith himas away to educate themselves.For three generations now,wheneverLeecomestoWashington,hemeetswithanarrayofpeoplespanningthe top ranksof theAmericangovernment and foreignpolicycommunity.His

discussionsoccurinanatmosphereofrarecandorborneofhighregardandlong-shared experience. Every American president who has dealt with him hasbenefitedfromthefactthat,oninternationalissues,hehasidentifiedthefutureof his country with the fate of the democracies. Furthermore, Lee can tell usabout thenatureof theworld thatweface,withespeciallypenetrating insightsintothethinkingofhisregion.

Lee’s analyses shed light on the most important challenge that the UnitedStates confronts over the long term: how to build a fundamental and organicrelationshipwithAsia,includingChina.Thereisnobodywhocanteachusmoreaboutthenatureandthescopeofthiseffort thanLeeKuanYew.Asthisbookdemonstrates,however,hisinsightsextendfarbeyondU.S.-Chinarelations;theyencompass virtually every challenge of international relations. It will not takelongfor readers todiscoverwhyLee isnotonlyoneof theseminal leadersofourperiod,butalsoathinkerrecognizedforhissingularstrategicacumen.

—HenryA.Kissinger

NewYork,April2012

WhoIsLeeKuanYew?

Astrategist’sstrategist

Aleader’sleader

Amentor’smentor

WhenLeeKuanYewTalks,WhoListens?

Presidents

BarackObama,presidentoftheUnitedStates

Lee“isoneofthelegendaryfiguresofAsiainthe20thand21stcenturies.Heissomebody who helped to trigger the Asian economic miracle.” (October 29,2009)

BillClinton,42ndpresidentoftheUnitedStates

“Lee’slifeofpublicserviceisbothuniqueandremarkable…HisworkasPrimeMinisterandnowasMinisterMentorhashelpedliterallymillionsofpeople inSingaporeandallacrossSoutheastAsiatolivebetter,moreprosperouslives.Ihope the leadersofASEAN[theAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations]willcontinue to build uponMr.LeeKuanYew’s outstanding legacy…I thankyou[the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council] for honoring a man I admire so verymuch.”(October27,2009)

GeorgeH.W.Bush,41stpresidentoftheUnitedStates

“Inmylonglifeinpublicservice,Ihaveencounteredmanybright,ablepeople.None is more impressive than Lee Kuan Yew.” (endorsement of Lee’s MyLifelongChallenge:Singapore’sBilingualJourney,2011)

JacquesChirac,presidentofFrance(1995–2007)

“Lee Kuan Yew has gathered around himself the most brilliant minds,transforming themost exacting standards into a system of government.Underhis leadership, the primacyof the general interest, the cult of education,workand saving, and the capacity to foresee the needs of the city have enabledSingapore to take what I call ‘shortcuts to progress.’” (endorsement of Lee’sFromThirdWorldtoFirst:TheSingaporeStory:1965–2000,2000)

F.W.deKlerk,presidentofSouthAfrica(1989–94)

“The leader who, perhaps, impressed me most was Lee Kuan Yew ofSingapore…Hewasanindividualwhochangedthecourseofhistory…LeeKuanYewtooktherightdecisionsforhiscountry;hechosetherightvaluesandtheright economic policies to ensure the development of a successful society. Inthis,hewasanartistpaintingonthelargestcanvasthatsocietycanprovide.Hewasalsoaveryastutejudgeoftheworldandprovidedaverycannyandrealisticassessment of our situation in South Africa when I met him during the earlynineties.”(March30,2012)

ChineseLeaders

XiJinping,likelyincomingpresidentofChina

Lee is “our senior who has our respect”: “To this day, you are still workingtirelesslytoadvanceourbilateralrelationship,andyouhavemyfulladmiration.Wewillneverforgettheimportantcontributionyouhavemadetoourbilateralrelationship.”(May23,2011)

OtherHeadsofGovernment

Tony Blair, prime minister of the United Kingdom (1997–2007) Lee is “the

smartestleaderIthinkIevermet.”(Blair,AJourney:MyPoliticalLife,2010)

JohnMajor,primeministeroftheUnitedKingdom(1990–97)

“LeeKuanYewcanjustifiablybecalledthefatherofmodernSingapore.Hehassteered through policies that have been copied across Asia, and have greatlyliftedtheprofileandrepresentationofSingapore.Itisalegacythatwillendure.”(commentinTomPlate’sConversationswithLeeKuanYew:CitizenSingapore:HowtoBuildaNation,2010)

MargaretThatcher,primeministeroftheUnitedKingdom(1979–90)“Inoffice,IreadandanalyzedeveryspeechofLee’s.Hehadawayofpenetratingthefogofpropagandaandexpressingwithuniqueclaritytheissuesofourtimesandtheway to tackle them.Hewasneverwrong.” (endorsementofLee’sFromThirdWorldtoFirst:TheSingaporeStory:1965–2000,2000)

HelmutSchmidt,chancellorofGermany(1974–82)

“Ever since I met my friend Lee Kuan Yew, I was highly impressed by hisbrilliant intellect and his straight overview. His lifetime achievements as apolitical leader and statesman are outstanding. The economic and socialadvancementofmodernSingaporeisdeeplyrootedinhiscapabilitytoestablishan adequate political framework for Singapore’s ethnical heterogeneity. Thisbookisyetanotherproofofhisperspicacityandcompetence.”(endorsementofLee’sMyLifelongChallenge:Singapore’sBilingualJourney,2011)

HeadsofGlobalCorporationsandEconomicInstitutions

Rupert Murdoch, chairman and chief executive officer of News Corporation“Morethan40yearsago,LeeKuanYewtransformedwhatwasapoor,decrepitcolonyintoashining,rich,andmodernmetropolis—allthetimesurroundedbyhostilepowers.Withhisbrilliant,incisiveintellect,heisoneoftheworld’smostoutspokenandrespectedstatesmen.Thisbookisa‘mustread’foranystudentofmodernAsia.”(endorsementofLee’sFromThirdWorldtoFirst:TheSingapore

Story:1965–2000,2000)

JohnChambers,chairmanandchiefexecutiveofficerofCiscoSystems “Therearetwoequalizersinlife:theInternetandeducation.LeeKuanYewisaworldleaderwhounderstands this and is using the power of the Internet to positionSingapore for survival and success in the Internet economy.” (endorsement ofLee’sFromThirdWorldtoFirst:TheSingaporeStory:1965–2000,2000)

SamPalmisano,chairmanofIBM

“ItisterrifictobeattheLeeKuanYewSchoolofPublicPolicy.ItisespeciallyspecialformebecauseagentlemanIadmiresomuch,andhavelearnedsomuchfrom, isMinisterMentorLeeKuanYew.Hehasgivenme lotsof tutelageonAsiaandChinaandIndia,andhastremendousinsights.”(February1,2011)

RexTillerson, chairman,president,andchief executiveofficerofExxonMobil“Forsomanyyears,you[addressingLee]havebeenawillingmentortoleadersof government, business, and for me personally. The Ford’s Theatre LincolnMedal isgivento individualswho…exemplify the lasting legacyandmettleofcharacter embodied by President Abraham Lincoln. Few leaders in modernhistorymeetthesecriteriamorethantonight’shonoree…AbrahamLincolnoncesaid... ‘Towering genius disdains a beaten path.’ For the people of Singapore,LeeKuanYewwassuchatoweringleaderwhoheldaboldvisionforhisnation.Hedidnotleadthemdownthebeatenpathofnarrow-mindedprotectionism,butdownthebroadavenuesofglobalengagementandeconomiccompetitiveness.”(October18,2011)

RobertZoellick,presidentoftheWorldBank(2007–12)

“AssoonasIlearnedanumberofyearsagoabouttheLeeKuanYewSchool,Iwanted to figure out someway to at least comeby. I cannot thinkof a bettertestamentforaleaderwhohasmadeahugemarkintheworld.”(December18,2008)

JamesWolfensohn,presidentoftheWorldBank(1995–2005)

“IusedtobetheadvisertotheMinisterMentor.ItwasaveryhardjobbecauseItraveledtoSingapore,andeverytimeIwasjustabout totellsomethingtoMr.MinisterMentor,hewouldstopmeandtellmethethingIwastotellhim.Then

Iwould return to theUnitedStatesandsellhisadvice.Thankyouverymuch,Mr.MinisterMentor,forallthethingsyouhavetaughtme.Itriedgivingyoumyadvice.But,infact,itwasyouwhotaughtme.”(July10,2007)

MuhtarKent, chairmanandchiefexecutiveofficerofCoca-Cola “Historywillrecord few leaderswho have accomplished somuch for their country and forSoutheastAsiaasHisExcellencyLeeKuanYew.AsadrivingforcebehindthegrowthandevolutionofASEAN,Mr.LeealsohelpedmillionsofpeopleacrossSoutheast Asia to live in an environment of peace and economic growth.”(October27,2009)

DavidRothkopf,presidentandchiefexecutiveofficerofGartenRothkopf“Likemanyothervisitors,youwonderwhetherthistinyisland[Singapore]thatdidnotevenexistasatrulyindependentnationuntil1965isperhapsthebest-runcityinthe world, whether maybe the ancient Greeks and Singapore’s founder, LeeKuanYew,wereontosomethingwhentheysettledontheideaofcity-states…During the course of the half century in which he has led Singapore, he hasemerged as one of the world’s most effective if sometimes controversialleaders.”(Rothkopf,Power,Inc.,2012)

SeniorPolicymakers

HillaryClinton,U.S.secretaryofstate

“I am delighted to welcome the Minister Mentor here [to the White House]today…Singaporeisalongandvaluedpartneronsomanyimportantissues.AndIthinkitisfairtosay,sir[addressingLee],thatyouhaveagreatmanyadmirers.Youareheretoacceptanimportantaward[theU.S.-ASEANBusinessCouncil’sLifetimeAchievementAward]thatisgivenforlifetimeachievement,andIjoininthemanyAmericanswhothankyouforyourservice.”(October26,2009)

GeorgeShultz,U.S.secretaryofstate(1982–89)

“You[addressingLee]havetaughtallofusatremendousamountbywhatyouhave done, what you have said, [and] the way you mean it when you say

something,andIthankyou.”(October27,2009)

MadeleineAlbright,U.S.secretaryofstate(1997–2001)

“Hehas themostmodern andmost strategicviewof anyone I havemet for alongtime.”(July30,1997)

ZbigniewBrzezinski,U.S.nationalsecurityadviser(1977–81)“Heisamongthemost intellectuallyalertof theworld’s leaders…Heiscapableofexpatiatingatlengthandwithperceptiononvirtuallyanyinternationalproblem;heisamostastuteobserveroftheAsianscene;andheiscandidinpassingalongtousAsianperceptionsofourchangingroleinthatpartoftheworld.”(September16,1977)

LarrySummers,directoroftheU.S.NationalEconomicCouncil(2009–10)andU.S.secretaryoftheTreasury(1999–2001)“ItismorethanalittlebitdauntingtobetalkingaboutthesubjectofgovernancejustbeforeLeeKuanYewspeaks.”(September15,2006)

RobertRubin,U.S.secretaryoftheTreasury(1995–99)

“Lee is deeply knowledgeable about geopolitical and cultural matters…I hadgottentoknowtheSeniorMinistersomewhatduringtheAsianfinancialcrisis,whenhehaddemonstratedtheenormousdepthofhisgeopoliticalunderstandingandgrasp of regional issues.” (Rubin, In anUncertainWorld:ToughChoicesfromWallStreettoWashington,withJacobWeisberg,2003)

Joseph Nye, chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council (1993–94)“Today,it[Singapore]isarichandprosperouscountry.IftherestoftheworldcouldaccomplishwhatSingaporehasaccomplished,theworldwouldbeabetterandmoreprosperousplace…Heisamanwhoneverstopsthinking,neverstopslooking ahead with larger visions. His views are sought by respected seniorstatesmenonallcontinents.”(October17,2000)

Commentators

Nicholas Kristof, opinion columnist for the New York Times “Other leaders

have reshaped nations—Kemal Ataturk in Turkey, Lenin in Russia, DengXiaopinginChina—butnooneleftadeeper imprintonhispeople thanLee…Onecandisagreewithhim,butintoleranceandauthoritarianismhaveneverhadsoarticulateorstimulatingaspokesman.These[FromThirdWorldtoFirst]arerichmemoirs,thelegacyofanextraordinaryman,andinmanyways,thisbookis like Lee himself: smart, thoughtful, blunt, and provocative.” (November 5,2000)

DavidIgnatius,opinioncolumnistfortheWashingtonPost“Heisprobablythesmartest politician I have interviewed in more than 25 years as a journalist.”(September28,2002)

FareedZakaria,editor-at-largeofTime

“Lee Kuan Yew took a small spit of land in Southeast Asia, which becameindependent in 1965 after great struggle and anguish,with no resources and apolyglot population of Chinese,Malaysian, and Indian workers, and turned itintooneoftheeconomiccentersoftheworld.Todothis,Leehadtohavesmarteconomicpolicies,butalsoashrewdforeignpolicy…HeisstillindisputablythefatherofSingapore.Iwasstruckbythedepthofhisunderstandingoftheworld—China,Russia,andtheUnitedStates—allatage85.”(September21,2008)

Preface

Lee Kuan Yew is unique among statesmen of the past half century. The“foundingfather”anddominantfigureinSingaporeformorethanfivedecades,hetookapoor,corruptcity-stateandbuiltamodernnationwhosecitizensnowhave incomeshigher than thoseofmostAmericans.Notonlyasa thinker,butalsoasaprimaryactor,heknowsabouttransformation.

Ininternationalaffairs,noindividualhasbeenmoreeagerlysoughtout,moreregularlyconsulted,andmorecarefullylistenedtobyagenerationofAmerican,Chinese, and otherworld leaders than the “sage of Singapore.” FromRichardNixonandHenryKissinger,whentheyweredesigningthe“openingtoChina”in1971–72, toeveryoccupantof theWhiteHousesince,Americanpresidents,includingBarackObama,havegoneoutof theirway tostop inSingaporeandhavewelcomedLee to theOvalOfficewhenhevisits theUnitedStates.FromDengXiaoping,whenhefirstbegancontemplatingaradicalmarchtoamarket-based economy thatwould ignite three decades of double-digit growth; toHuJintao and the likely incoming president,Xi Jinping, Lee has been theirmostinfluentialcounseloroutsideofChina.

Beyond the great powers, smaller states such as Israel, whose survivaldepends on being alert to trends beyond their borders, have found in Lee asource of insight and inspiration. From Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev,whenhefoundhimselftheleaderofanewlyindependentcountrythathadneverexisted, to theUnitedArabEmirates’ SheikhKhalifa binZayed, toRwanda’sPaulKagame,andscoresofothers,leaderswithgreatchallengeshavefoundinLeestrategiccoordinatesthathelpthemnavigatetheirinternationalchallenges.

The purpose of this slim volume is not to look back on the past 50 years,remarkable asLee’s contributions to themhave been.Rather, our focus is thefutureandthespecificchallengesthattheUnitedStateswillfaceduringthenextquartercentury.Wehavetriedtoimaginethequestionsthattheindividualwhotakes the presidential oath of office on January 20, 2013,would find ofmostimmediate interest, and then to summarize Lee’smost direct responses in hisownwords.We are confident that these answerswill be of value not only to

those shaping American foreign policy, but also to leaders of businesses andcivilsocietyintheUnitedStates,whoaremakinginvestmentsofscarcedollarsandevenscarcertimebasedontheirexpectationsaboutsignificanttrendsinthewider world. We are grateful to Anthony Tan and Yeong Yoon Ying forfacilitatingourinterviewswithLee.

The ten chapters that follow begin with the rise of China, the issue aboutwhichLeeundoubtedlyknowsmorethananyotheroutsideobserveroranalyst.WillChina challengeAmerica’s position as the leading power inAsia, and intime the world? Most policymakers and pundits answer this central questionwith a combination of fog and abstractions. Cutting through that cant andcaution, Lee answers: “Of course. Their reawakened sense of destiny is anoverpoweringforce.ItisChina’sintentiontobethegreatestpowerintheworld—andtobeacceptedasChina,notasanhonorarymemberoftheWest.”

WethenaskabouttheUnitedStatesandtheU.S.-Chinarelationshipthatwillshapeinternationalpoliticsinthe21stcentury.Betweenthesetwogreatpowers,Lee sees confrontation: “There will be a struggle for influence. Competitionbetween them is inevitable.” But contrary to pessimistic realists, he does notjudgeconflictinevitableifleadersofbothnationsexercisereasonablejudgment.

Successive chapters address India, Islamic extremism, geopolitics andglobalization,anddemocracy,amongothertopics.EachchapterstartswithkeyquestionsandthenoffersasuccinctsummaryofLee’sanswers.Manyofthoseanswershaveanedge,sincehehascongenitallypushedbackagainst“politicalcorrectness” and never shrunk from controversy. As authors and architects ofthisbook,wehaveresistedthetemptationtocommentorofferourownviews,mindful that presidents and their closest adviserswillmostbenefit fromLee’scounsel,notours.

WehaveextractedLee’skeyinsightsandcentralargumentssothattheycanbescannedquickly.Makenomistake:webelievethateverywordoneverypagethat follows deserves to be read, but readers can make that judgment forthemselves.Wesuspectthatthosehopingtomakeaquickdashthroughthebookwillfindthemselvesspendingmoretimethantheyexpected,compelledbyLee’swordstopauseandthinkaboutassertionsofhisthat theyfindsurprising,evendisturbing,butinvariablyilluminating.

The opportunity to spendmany hours listening to Lee and poring over hisvoluminouswritings,interviews,andspeecheshasbeenmorefulfillingthanwecouldhaveeverexpected.Ifwecanofferreadersatasteofthatbanquet,wewillhavefulfilledouraspirations.

CHAPTER1

TheFutureofChina

AreChineseleadersseriousaboutdisplacingtheUnitedStatesasthenumber1power in Asia? In the world?What does number 1mean?Howwill China’sbehavior toward other countries change ifChina becomes the dominantAsianpower?What isChina’s strategy forbecomingnumber1?What are themajorhurdles inexecuting that strategy?HowmuchurgencydoChina’s leaders feelabout achieving primacy in their region and beyond?HowdoChina’s leadersseetheU.S.roleinAsiachangingasChinabecomesnumber1?Isthedouble-digitgrowththatChinahasmaintainedoverthreedecadeslikelytocontinueforthenextseveraldecades?WillChinabecomeademocracy?WillChinaactuallybecome number 1? How should one assess Xi Jinping? These questions arecentral to the likely course of Asian and world history. Lee Kuan Yew’sthoughtful answers in this chapter reflect decades of observing and analyzingChinaanditsleaders.

AreChineseleadersseriousaboutdisplacingtheUnitedStatesasthenumber1powerinAsia?Intheworld?

Of course.Why not? They have transformed a poor society by an economicmiracle tobecomenowthesecond-largesteconomyin theworld—ontrack,asGoldman Sachs has predicted, to become the world’s largest economy in thenext20years.TheyhavefollowedtheAmericanleadinputtingpeopleinspace

and shooting down satelliteswithmissiles.Theirs is a culture 4,000 years oldwith1.3billionpeople,manyofgreattalent—ahugeandverytalentedpooltodrawfrom.Howcouldtheynotaspiretobenumber1inAsia,andintimetheworld?1

Today, China is the world’s fastest developing nation, growing at ratesunimaginable 50 years ago, a dramatic transformation no one predicted…TheChinese people have raised their expectations and aspirations. Every Chinesewants a strong and rich China, a nation as prosperous, advanced, andtechnologically competent as America, Europe, and Japan. This reawakenedsenseofdestinyisanoverpoweringforce.2

TheChinesewillwanttosharethiscenturyasco-equalswiththeU.S.3

ItisChina’sintentiontobethegreatestpowerintheworld.ThepoliciesofallgovernmentstowardChina,especiallyneighboringcountries,havealreadytakenthisintoaccount.ThesegovernmentsarerepositioningthemselvesbecausetheyknowthattherewillbeconsequencesiftheythwartChinawhenitscoreinterestsareatstake.Chinacanimposeeconomicsanctionssimplybydenyingaccesstoits market of 1.3 billion people, whose incomes and purchasing power areincreasing.4

Unlike other emergent countries, Chinawants to be China and accepted assuch,notasanhonorarymemberoftheWest.5

Whatdoesnumber1mean?HowwillChina’sbehaviortowardothercountrieschangeifChinabecomesthedominantAsianpower?

At the core of their mindset is their world before colonization and theexploitation and humiliation that brought. In Chinese, China means “MiddleKingdom”—recallingaworldinwhichtheyweredominantintheregion,otherstates related to themassupplicants toasuperior,andvassalscame toBeijingbearing tribute: for example, the sultan of Brunei, who carried silk as hisoffering,butwhodiedtherefourcenturiesagoandnowhasashrineinBeijing.6

WillanindustrializedandstrongChinabeasbenigntoSoutheastAsiaasthe

UnitedStates has been since 1945?Singapore is not sure.Neither areBrunei,Indonesia,Malaysia,thePhilippines,Thailand,andVietnam…WealreadyseeaChinamoreselfassuredandwillingtotaketoughpositions.7

TheconcernofAmerica iswhatkindofworld theywill facewhenChinaisable to contest their preeminence…Manymediumand small countries inAsiaarealsoconcerned.TheyareuneasythatChinamaywanttoresumetheimperialstatus it had in earlier centuries and have misgivings about being treated asvassalstateshavingtosendtributetoChinaastheyusedtoinpastcenturies.8

They expect Singaporeans to bemore respectful ofChina as it growsmoreinfluential. They tell us that countries big or small are equal: we are not ahegemon.Butwhenwedosomethingtheydonotlike,theysayyouhavemade1.3billionpeopleunhappy…Sopleaseknowyourplace.9

WhatisChina’sstrategyforbecomingnumber1?

The Chinese have concluded that their best strategy is to build a strong andprosperous future, and use their huge and increasingly highly skilled andeducatedworkerstoout-sellandout-buildallothers.Theywillavoidanyactionthat will sour up relations with the U.S. To challenge a stronger andtechnologicallysuperiorpowerliketheU.S.willaborttheir“peacefulrise.”10

ChinaisfollowinganapproachconsistentwithideasintheChinesetelevisionseriesTheRiseofGreatPowers,producedby theParty toshapediscussionofthis issue amongChinese elites.ThemistakeofGermanyand Japanwas theireffort to challenge the existing order. The Chinese are not stupid; they haveavoided this mistake…Overall GDP [gross domestic product], not GDP percapita, iswhatmatters in termsofpower…Chinawill not reach theAmericanlevel in terms ofmilitary capabilities anytime soon, but is rapidly developingasymmetrical means to deter U.S. military power. China understands that itsgrowthdependson imports, includingenergy, rawmaterials, and food…Chinaalsoneedsopensealanes.BeijingisworriedaboutitsdependenceontheStraitofMalaccaandismovingtoeasethedependence.11

TheChinesehavecalculatedthattheyneed30to40,maybe50,yearsofpeaceand quiet to catch up, build up their system, change it from the communistsystemtothemarketsystem.TheymustavoidthemistakesmadebyGermanyandJapan.Theircompetitionforpower,influence,andresourcesledinthelastcentury to two terriblewars…TheRussianmistakewas that theyput somuchintomilitaryexpenditureandsolittleintociviliantechnology.Sotheireconomycollapsed. Ibelieve theChinese leadershiphas learnt that ifyoucompetewithAmericainarmaments,youwill lose.Youwillbankruptyourself.So,avoidit,keepyourheaddown,andsmile,for40or50years.12

To become competitive, China is focused on educating its young people,selecting the brightest for science and technology, followed by economics,businessmanagement,andtheEnglishlanguage.13

Myfirst reaction to thephrase “peaceful rise”was to tell oneof their thinktanks,“Itisacontradictioninterms;anyriseissomethingthatisstartling.”Andtheysaid,“Whatwouldyousay?”Ireplied:“Peacefulrenaissance,orevolution,or development.” A recovery of ancient glory, an updating of a once greatcivilization.Butitisalreadydone.NowtheChinesehavetoconstrueitasbesttheycan.Ayearago,aChineseleaderinhis70saskedme,“Doyoubelieveourpositiononpeacefulrise?”Ianswered,“Yes,Ido—butwithonecaveat.”Yourgenerationhasbeenthroughtheanti-Japanesewar,theGreatLeapForward,theCulturalRevolution, theGangofFour,andfinally theOpenDoorpolicy.Youknow there are many pitfalls, that for China to go up the escalator withoutmishaps,internallyyouneedstability,externallyyouneedpeace.However,youare inculcating enormous pride and patriotism in your young in a restoredChina…Itisvolatile.”TheChineseleadersaidtheywouldensurethattheyoungunderstood.Well,Ihopetheydo.Somewheredownthisroad,agenerationmaybelievetheyhavecomeofage,beforetheyhave.14

China’s strategy for Southeast Asia is fairly simple: China tells the region,“come growwithme.”At the same time,China’s leaderswant to convey theimpressionthatChina’sriseisinevitableandthatcountrieswillneedtodecideiftheywanttobeChina’sfriendorfoewhenit“arrives.”Chinaisalsowillingtocalibrateitsengagementtogetwhatitwantsorexpressitsdispleasure.15

China is sucking the Southeast Asian countries into its economic systembecause of its vast market and growing purchasing power. Japan and SouthKorea will inevitably be sucked in as well. It just absorbs countries withouthaving to use force. China’s neighbors want the U.S. to stay engaged in theAsia-Pacific so that they are not hostages to China. The U.S. should haveestablisheda free-tradeareawithSoutheastAsia30yearsago,wellbefore theChinese magnet began to pull the region into its orbit. If it had done so, itspurchasing power would now be so much greater than it is, and all of theSoutheastAsian countrieswouldhavebeen linked to theU.S. economy ratherthandependingonChina’s.Economicssetsunderlyingtrends.China’sgrowingeconomicswaywillbeverydifficulttofight.16

China’semphasisisonexpandingtheirinfluencethroughtheeconomy.Inthegeopoliticalsense, theyaremoreconcernednowwithusingdiplomacyin theirforeignpolicy,notforce.17

Whatarethemajorhurdlesinexecutingthatstrategy?

Internally, thechiefchallengesareculture, language,an inability toattractandintegratetalentfromothercountries,and,intime,governance.18

EvenifChinawereasopentotalentedimmigrantsastheU.S.,howcanonego thereand integrate into societywithoutamasteryofChinese?Chinese isavery difficult language to learn— monosyllabic and tonal. One can learnconversationalChineseafterafewyears,butitisverydifficulttobeabletoreadquickly.

IdonotknowifChinawillbeabletoovercomethelanguagebarrierandtheattendant difficulty in recruiting outside talent unless it makes English thedominantlanguage,asSingaporehas.

ChildrentherelearnChinesefirst.ThentheylearnEnglish.TheymightgototheU.S.asateenagerandbecomefluent,buttheyhave4,000yearsofChineseepigramsintheirhead.19

ChinawillinevitablycatchuptotheU.S.inabsoluteGDP.Butitscreativity

maynevermatchAmerica’s,becauseitsculturedoesnotpermitafreeexchangeandcontestofideas.HowelsetoexplainhowacountrywithfourtimesasmanypeopleasAmerica—andpresumablyfourtimesasmanytalentedpeople—doesnotcomeupwithtechnologicalbreakthroughs?20

Can the Chinese break free from their own culture? It will require goingagainst thegrainof5,000yearsofChinesehistory.When thecenter is strong,the country prospers.When the center is weak, the emperor is far away, themountains are high, and there are many little emperors in the provinces andcounties.Thisistheirculturalheritage…Chinesetraditionsthusproduceamoreuniformmandarinate.21

The biggest single fearChina’s leaders have is the corrosive effect of graftandtherevulsionthatitevokesinpeople.Theyareneverquitesurewhenitwillblowup.22

Therewill be enormous stresses because of the size of the country and theintractablenatureoftheproblems,thepoorinfrastructure,theweakinstitutions,thewrongsystemsthattheyhaveinstalled,modelingthemselvesupontheSovietsysteminStalin’stime.23

Chinafacesenormouseconomicproblems—adisparityinincomebetweentherich coastal cities and the inland provinces, and in income within the coastalcities.Theyhavegottowatchthatcarefullyortheymightgetseverediscontentandcivildisorder.24

Technologyisgoingtomaketheirsystemofgovernanceobsolete.By2030,70% ormaybe 75% of their peoplewill be in cities, small towns, big towns,megabigtowns.Theyaregoingtohavecellphones,Internet,satelliteTV.Theyaregoingtobewell-informed;theycanorganizethemselves.Youcannotgovernthemthewayyouaregoverningthemnow,whereyoujustplacateandmonitorafewpeople,becausethenumberswillbesolarge.25

Increasingly cheap and available technology and cascades of reversemigrationarewisingpeopleup to the true storyof theexploitationofChina’sheretoforeisolatedruralregions.And,furthermore,theChineseknowthatwiththeirindustrialization,everyyear,tenorplusmillionswillgointothenewtowns

they are constructing for their people…If they change in a pragmaticway, astheyhavebeendoing,keepingtightsecuritycontrolandnotallowingriotsandnotallowingrebellionsand,atthesametime,easingup…givingmoreprovincialauthority,morecityauthority,moregrassrootspower,itisholdable.26

China did not have to worry about the rest of the world when it was anempire.This time, ithas toworryabout therestof theworld,becausewithouttheresources,theoil,thenickel,whatever,itsgrowthwillstop.27

Present-dayChinafacesaveryadvancedNorthAmerica,Europe,Japan,andafairlydevelopedSoutheastAsiaandIndia…China’sleaders30yearshencewillknowthatalthoughby2050ChinawillbethebiggesteconomyinGNP[grossnationalproduct],per capita, theywill still be small, and technologically, theywill still bewaybehind.So to get there, theymust have a senseof realism…TheyhavegottobelikeSingapore’sleaders,withaverykeensenseofwhatispossible and what is not. They must know that to dominate Asia is notpossible.28

Straight-line extrapolations from such a remarkable record are not realistic.Chinahasmorehandicapsgoingforwardandmoreobstaclestoovercomethanmostobserversrecognize.Chiefamongthesearetheirproblemsofgovernance:theabsenceoftheruleoflaw,whichintoday’sChinaisclosertotheruleoftheemperor;ahugecountryinwhichlittleemperorsacrossavastexpanseexercisegreat local influence; cultural habits that limit imagination and creativity,rewarding conformity; a language that shapes thinking through epigrams and4,000yearsoftextsthatsuggesteverythingworthsayinghasalreadybeensaid,and said better by earlier writers; a language that is exceedingly difficult forforeignerstolearnsufficientlytoembraceChinaandbeembracedbyitssociety;and severe constraints on its ability to attract and assimilate talent from othersocietiesintheworld.

WhileSingaporeshareswithChinamanyof thecorephilosophical tenetsofConfucianism,weworkedoverthepast40yearstoestablishEnglishasourfirstlanguage,andChineseasthesecond.Why?Certainlynotbyaccidentorwithoutprovokingstrongopposition.Wedidsotoopenourselvestotheworldandallowourselvestoengageandembracethemainforcesofdiscoveryandinventionand

creativitythatoccurnotonlyinthelanguagebutalsointhementalityofEnglish.We could do that in a small city-state with strong leadership. While I onceadvised aChinese leader tomakeEnglish the first language ofChina, clearlythat is not realistic for such a great, confident country and culture.But it is aserioushandicap.29

Howmuch urgency do China’s leaders feel about achieving primacy in theirregionandbeyond?

TheChineseareinnohurrytodisplacetheU.S.asthenumber1powerintheworldandtocarrytheburdenthat ispartandparcelof thatposition.Fornow,theyarequitecomfortableinbeingpartofalargergroupliketheG20[GroupofTwenty] where their views will be taken seriously and economic interestssafeguarded,buttheresponsibilityissharedamongst20memberstates.30

While there are no doubt voices calling forChina tomovemore rapidly inestablishing its superiority, demanding the respect that comes along with thatstanding, and exercising this role, the center of gravity among the leaders iscautious and conservative.Theyoperate on the basis of consensus andhave alongview.Whilesomemayimaginethatthe21stcenturywillbelongtoChina,others expect to share this century with the U.S. as they build up to China’scenturytofollow.31

HowdoChina’s leaderssee theU.S. role inAsiachangingasChinabecomesnumber1?

Theleadershiprecognizesthatastheleadingpowerintheregionforthesevendecades since World War II, the U.S. has provided a stability that allowedunprecedentedgrowthformanynations includingJapan, theAsianTigers,andChinaitself.ChinaknowsthatitneedsaccesstoU.S.markets,U.S.technology,opportunitiesforChinesestudentstostudyintheU.S.andbringbacktoChinanewideasaboutnewfrontiers.ItthereforeseesnoprofitinconfrontingtheU.S.inthenext20to30yearsinawaythatcouldjeopardizethesebenefits.

Rather, its strategy is togrowwithin this framework,biding its timeuntil itbecomes strong enough to successfully redefine this political and economicorder.

Inthesecurityarena,theChineseunderstandthattheU.S.hasspentsomuchmoreandhasbuiltupsuchadvantagesthatdirectchallengeswouldbefutile.Notuntil China has overtaken the U.S. in the development and application oftechnologycantheyenvisageconfrontingtheU.S.militarily.32

Whatare theAmericansgoing tofightChinaover?ControloverEastAsia?The Chinese need not fight over East Asia. Slowly and gradually, they willexpand their economic tieswith EastAsia and offer them theirmarket of 1.3billion consumers…Extrapolate that another 10, 20 years and theywill be thetop importerandexporterofallEastAsiancountries.Howcan theAmericanscompeteintrade?33

I do not see the Americans retreating fromAsia. But I see Chinese powergrowing. The Chinese attitude is: we are not against you; we welcome anAmerican presence—because they know they cannot substitute for theAmericans,andthecountriesherewelcometheAmericans.Sotheyjustwaitandgrowstronger.Economicallyandmilitarily,theymaynotcatchupfor100yearsin technology, but asymmetrically, they can inflict enormous damage on theAmericans.34

Is thedouble-digitgrowththatChinahasmaintainedoverthreedecadeslikelytocontinueforthenextseveraldecades?

During the last three decades,China’s economyhas grown at the phenomenalrateof10%peryear,sometimesevenexceeding12%.CanChinamaintainsuchhigh rates for at least another decade? I think it can.China is starting from alower base, and its 1.3 billion domestic consumerswill keep rates up becausetheirdisposableincomesaregrowing.35

WillChinabecomeademocracy?

No. China is not going to become a liberal democracy; if it did, it wouldcollapse.Ofthat,Iamquitesure,andtheChineseintelligentsiaalsounderstandsthat.Ifyoubelievethatthereisgoingtobearevolutionofsomesort inChinafordemocracy,youarewrong.WherearethestudentsofTiananmennow?Theyareirrelevant.TheChinesepeoplewantarevivedChina.36

Canitbeaparliamentarydemocracy?Thisisapossibilityinthevillagesandsmalltowns…TheChinesefearchaosandwillalwayserronthesideofcaution.It will be a long evolutionary process, but it is possible to contemplate suchchanges.Transportation andcommunicationshavebecome somuch faster andcheaper.TheChinesepeoplewillbeexposedtoothersystemsandculturesandknow other societies through travel, through the Internet, and through smartphones.Onethingisforsure:thepresentsystemwillnotremainunchangedforthenext50years.37

ToachievethemodernizationofChina,herCommunist leadersarepreparedtotryallandeverymethod,exceptfordemocracywithonepersonandonevotein a multiparty system. Their two main reasons are their belief that theCommunistPartyofChinamusthaveamonopolyonpowertoensurestability;andtheirdeepfearofinstabilityinamultipartyfree-for-all,whichwouldleadtoalossofcontrolbythecenterovertheprovinces,withhorrendousconsequences,likethewarlordyearsofthe1920sand’30s.38

Idonotbelieveyoucanimposeonothercountriesstandardswhicharealienandtotallydisconnectedwiththeirpast.SotoaskChinatobecomeademocracy,when in its 5,000 years of recorded history it never counted heads; all rulersruledbyrightofbeingtheemperor,andifyoudisagree,youchopoffheads,notcount heads. But I agree that in this world of instant communication andsatellites, you cannot have barbaric behavior and say it is your internalproblem…Butnowonhumanrights,theyhavebeguntotalk,andtheyrecognizethat if theywant to be respected in theworld community, theywant towin acertainstatuswiththerestoftheworld,notjustadvancedcountries,buteventhedevelopingcountries,thentheycannotbehaveinabarbaricfashiontotheirownpeople.39

(In 1993, Lee offered a vision of Chinese governance in 2150.)40 China

discovered that to run a modern state it needed the rule of law. It had acomprehensivesetoflegalcodesby2035andfoundthatastablelegalsystem,togetherwithclearadministrativerules,actuallystrengthenedcentralauthority.Erring provincial and local governments were brought to book through dueprocessof law,amethodmoreeffective than theendlessnegotiations thathadbeen thepracticebefore.Also,with the ruleof law,ordinary citizens arenowprotectedfromthearbitraryauthorityofofficials.Businessenterprisesarealsoabletoplanlargelong-terminvestments.Theindependenceofthejudiciarytookanother 20 years to achieve in practice, because historical tradition, whichrequiredmagistrates,asofficersoftheemperor,tocarryoutimperialorders,wasdeeplyembeddedinChineseofficialdom.

WillChinaactuallybecomenumber1?

Their great advantage is not in military influence but in their economicinfluence…They have the manpower to do things cheaper in any part of theworld economically. Their influence can only grow and grow beyond thecapabilitiesofAmerica.41

The chances of it going wrong in China—if they have pragmatic, realisticleaderswhoarenotideologicallyblinkered—areaboutoneinfive.Iwouldnotsay zero, because their problems are weighty ones: system change, businessculturechange,reducingcorruption,andformingnewmindsets.42

TheChinesehave figuredout that if they staywith “peaceful rise” and justcontestforfirstpositioneconomicallyandtechnologically,theycannotlose.43

The21stcenturywillseeAsiarecoveritsplaceintheworld.Theirprogressinthelast30yearsentitlesEastAsiansincludingtheChinesetobeoptimisticabouttheir future.Shortof somemajorunforeseeabledisasterwhichbringschaosorbreaksupChinaonceagainintosomanywarlordfiefdoms,itisonlyaquestionoftimebeforetheChinesepeoplereorganize,reeducate,andtrainthemselvestotake full advantageofmodern science and technology.Chinawill quicken thepace of its development by using inputs from the industrial and newlyindustrializing countries to catch up with and become, first, a fully

industrialized, and next, a high-tech society— if not in 50 years, then in 100years.44

HowshouldoneassessXiJinping[thelikelyincomingpresidentofChina]?

HehashadatougherlifethanHuJintao.Hisfatherwasrusticated,andsowashe.He took it inhis stride,workedhiswayup thesouthernprovincesquietly,androsetobecomesecretaryofFujianProvince.ThenhewenttoShanghai,andthentoBeijing.Ithasnotbeensmoothsailingforhim.Hislifeexperiencesmusthavehardenedhim.

Heisreserved—notinthesensethathewillnottalktoyou,butinthesensethathewillnotbetrayhislikesanddislikes.Thereisalwaysapleasantsmileonhisface,whetherornotyouhavesaidsomethingthatannoyedhim.Hehasironinhissoul,morethanHuJintao,whoascendedtherankswithoutexperiencingthetrialsandtribulationsthatXiendured.45

I would put him in Nelson Mandela’s class of persons. A person withenormous emotional stability who does not allow his personal misfortunes orsufferingstoaffecthisjudgment.Inotherwords,heisimpressive.46

CHAPTER2

TheFutureoftheUnitedStates

IstheUnitedStatesinsystemicdecline?WhatareAmerica’sprimarystrengths?What worries you about the U.S. government?What worries you about U.S.culture?Doeseffectivegovernancerequire“guardians”?IstheUnitedStatesatriskofbecomingEuropean?Whatdoes theU.S.need todo tomaintainglobalprimacy?Inthischapter,LeeKuanYewdrawsonhislongexperiencewiththeUnitedStatestoofferperceptiveandprovocativeanswerstothesequestions.

IstheUnitedStatesinsystemicdecline?

Absolutely not. The U.S. is going through a bumpy patch with its debt anddeficits, but I have no doubt that Americawill not be reduced to second-ratestatus.Historically, theU.S.hasdemonstratedagreatcapacityforrenewalandrevival.America’sstrengthsincludenogroovedthinkingbutratheranabilitytorange widely, imaginatively, and pragmatically; a diversity of centers ofexcellence that compete in inventing and embracing new ideas and newtechnologies;asocietythatattractstalentfromaroundtheworldandassimilatesthemcomfortablyasAmericans;andalanguagethatistheequivalentofanopensystem that is clearly the lingua franca of the leaders in science, technology,invention,business,education,diplomacy,andthosewhorisetothetopoftheirownsocietiesaroundtheworld.1

AlthoughAmericaiscurrentlyfacingtremendouslydifficulteconomictimes,

America’screativity,resilience,andinnovativespiritwillallowittoconfrontitscoreproblems,overcomethem,andregaincompetitiveness.2

Forthenexttwotothreedecades,Americawillremainthesolesuperpower.TheU.S. is themostmilitarilypowerfulandeconomicallydynamiccountry intheworld.Itistheengineforglobalgrowththroughitsinnovation,productivity,andconsumption.3

Todayandforthenextfewdecades,it istheU.S.thatwillbepreeminentinsettingtherulesofthegame.NomajorissueconcerninginternationalpeaceandstabilitycanberesolvedwithoutU.S.leadership,andnocountryorgroupingcanyetreplaceAmericaasthedominantglobalpower.4

The U.S. response to the terrorist attacks of 9/11 demonstrated America’spreeminence.ThatshockalteredtheattitudesofAmericansonhowtodealwithterroristthreatstotheirsociety.Washingtondidnothesitatetouseitsenormouspower tochange therulesof thegametohuntdownanddestroy terroristsandthosewhogivethemsuccor.5

Forthenextfewdecades,theU.S.willbeavirtualAmericanempire.WhetheryouareAfricanorSouthAmericanorIndianorFilipinoorChineseorKorean,Americans will let you work for them in America and in their multinationalcorporations abroad…Throughout history, all empires that succeeded haveembracedandincludedintheirmidstpeopleofotherraces,languages,religions,andcultures.6

For the next 10, 15, 20 years, the U.S. will remain the most enterprising,innovativeeconomybecauseofitsleading-edgetechnology,bothinthecivilianandmilitary fields…Youwill lose that gradually over 30, 40, 50 years unlessyouareabletokeeponattractingtalent,andthatisthefinalcontest,becausetheChineseandothernationsaregoingtoadoptpartsofwhatyouhavedonetofittheircircumstances,andtheyarealsogoingaroundlookingfortalentedpeopleand building up their innovative, enterprising economies. And finally, this isnow an age when you will not have military contests between great nations,because you will destroy each other, but you will have economic andtechnologicalcontestsbetweenthegreatpowers.7

WhatareAmerica’sprimarystrengths?

Americans have a can-do approach to life: everything can be broken up,analyzed,andredefined.Whetheritcanoritcannot,Americansbelieveitcanbesolved, given enough money, research, and effort. Over the years, I havewatched the Americans revise and restructure their economy, after they weregoing down in the 1980s, when Japan and Germany looked like they wereeclipsingAmerica, takingover all themanufacturing.Americanscame roaringback.Theyhavethesuperiorsystem.Itismorecompetitive.8

WhathasmadetheU.S.economypreeminentisitsentrepreneurialculture…Entrepreneurs and investors alike see risk and failure as natural andnecessaryfor success. When they fail, they pick themselves up and start afresh. TheEuropeans and the Japanese now have the task of adopting these practices toincrease theirefficiencyandcompetitiveness.ButmanyAmericanpracticesgoagainstthegrainofthemorecomfortableandcommunitarianculturalsystemsoftheirownsocieties—theJapanesewithlife-longemploymentfor theirworkers,the Germans with their unions having a say in management under co-determination, and the French with their government supporting the right ofunionstopressurebusinessesfromretrenching,byrequiringlargecompensationtobepaidtolaid-offworkers.9

TheU.S. isa frontiersociety…There isagreaturge tostartnewenterprisesandcreatewealth.TheU.S.hasbeenthemostdynamicsocietyininnovating,instarting up companies to commercialize new discoveries or inventions, thuscreatingnewwealth.Americansociety isalwayson themoveandchanging…ForeverysuccessfulentrepreneurinAmerica,manyhavetriedandfailed.Quitea few tried repeatedly until they succeeded. Quite a few who succeededcontinuedtocreateandstartupnewcompaniesasserialentrepreneurs…Thisisthespiritthatgeneratesadynamiceconomy.10

TheAmericanculture…isthatwestartfromscratchandbeatyou.ThatiswhyI have confidence that the American economywill recover. Theywere goingdownagainstJapanandGermanyinmanufacturing.ButtheycameupwiththeInternet,MicrosoftandBillGates,andDell…Whatkindofmindsetdoyouneed

forthat?Itispartoftheirhistory.Theywentintoanemptycontinentandmadethebestofit—killedtheRedIndiansandtookoverthelandandthebuffaloes.Sothis ishowtheyendedup—youbuilda townhere,youbethesheriff, Iamthejudge,youarethepoliceman,andyouarethebanker, letusstart.Andthisculture has carried on until today. There is the belief that you can make ithappen.11

The Americans have succeeded as against the Europeans and the Japanesebecausetheyhavemoreextremesofrandombehavior.Youhavethemean,youhavethebellcurve,andyouhavetwoextremeends.Andthemoreyouhaveofthe extreme ends on the good side, themore creativity and inventiveness youhave.12

One fundamental difference between American and Oriental culture is theindividual’sposition insociety. InAmericanculture,an individual’s interest isprimary. This makes American societymore aggressively competitive, with asharperedgeandhigherperformance.13

TheAmericanswillalwayshavetheadvantagebecauseoftheirall-embracivesociety, and the English language that makes it easy to attract foreign talent.America has a clear advantage over China, because its use of the EnglishlanguageenablesAmericatoattractmillionsofEnglish-speakingforeigntalentfromAsia andEurope.There is an off chance that theUnitedStateswill loseconfidence in itself, will not be so creative, so inventive, and creatingbreakthroughsinnewtechnologiesandnotattractingnewtalentsfromabroad.Idonotsee theUnitedStates in thenext10,20,30years losingthatcapability.TalentwillnotgotoChina.TalentwillgotoAmericabecauseAmericansspeakEnglishandeverybodyfits in. It isacountry thatembraces immigrants.TogoandsettleinChina,youhavetomastertheChineselanguage.AndyoumustgetusedtotheChineseculture.Andthatisaverydifficulthurdletoclear.14

The U.S. is the only superpower because of its advances in science andtechnologyandtheircontributiontoitseconomicandmilitarymight.15

TheU.S.dollarislikelytoremaintheleadingcurrency,becausetheAmericaneconomywillremainthemostentrepreneurialanddynamicintheworld.16

Americaisagreatnationnotjustbecauseofitspowerandwealth,butmainlybecause it is a nationmoved by high ideals.Only the elevating power of heridealism can explain the benign manner in which America has exercised itsenormous power since the end of World War II and the magnanimity andgenerosity with which it has shared its wealth to rebuild a more prosperousworld.17

TheUnited States is themost benign of all the great powers, certainly lessheavy-handedthananyemerginggreatpower…Aslongasitseconomyleadstheworld, and America stays ahead in innovation and technology, neither theEuropean Union nor Japan nor China can displace the United States from itspresentpreeminentposition.18

WhatworriesyouabouttheU.S.government?

When you have popular democracy, towin votes you have to givemore andmore.And tobeatyouropponent in thenext election, youhave topromise togivemoreaway.Soit isanever-endingprocessofauctions—andthecost, thedebtbeingpaidforbythenextgeneration.19

Presidentsdonotget reelected if theygiveaharddoseofmedicine to theirpeople.So,thereisatendencytoprocrastinate,topostponeunpopularpoliciesinorder to win elections. So, problems such as budget deficits, debt, and highunemploymenthavebeencarriedforwardfromoneadministrationtothenext.20

If thePresident and theCongress are conscribedbypopular sentiment, thentheywillalwaysbecaptive.AmericamusthaveleaderswhoarepreparedtoleadandknowwhatisgoodforAmericaanddoit,eveniftheylosetheirreelection.AsystemofgovernancethatdoesnotallowthemtodoaquietU-turnwhentheyidentifyproblemsismalfunctioning.21

A certain coyness or diffidence seems to have descended on Americanpoliticians. American academics and journalists freely discuss America’sproblems andweaknesses.But in the years since theVietnamWar ended, theAmerican voter has shown a disinclination to listen to their political leaders

whentheydebatethehardissues.Perhapsforthisreason,neithertheRepublicannor theDemocratic Party has focused on the urgent need to cut down deficitspending, especially onwelfare, to increase savings and investments, or,mostcrucialofall,toimproveAmerica’sschoolsystemtoproduceworkerswhoareabletocompeteinternationally.22

The presidential system is less likely to produce good government than aparliamentary system. In the presidential system, your personal appearance onTVisdecisive,whereasinaparliamentarysystem,theprimeminister,beforehebecomes theprimeminister,hasbeenamemberofparliament,andprobablyaminister,andinBritainthepeoplehavesizedyouupoveraperiodoftime…andtheyhavecometocertainconclusionsastowhatkindofapersonyouare,whatkindofdepthyouhave,whatkindofsincerityyouhaveinwhatyousay…Yourpresidents,Imean,likeJimmyCarter…mynameisJimmyCarter,Iamapeanutfarmer, I am running for president. The next thing you know, he was thepresident!23

Security, prosperity, and the consumer society plus mass communicationshavemadeforadifferentkindofpersongettingelectedasleader,onewhocanpresenthimself andhisprograms inapolishedway…Iamamazedat thewaymedia professionals can give a candidate a new image and transform him, atleastsuperficially,intoadifferentpersonality.Winninganelectionbecomes,inlargemeasure,acontestinpackagingandadvertising…Aspindoctorisahigh-income professional, one in great demand. From such a process, I doubt if aChurchill,aRoosevelt,oradeGaullecanemerge.24

ContrarytowhatAmericanpoliticalcommentatorssay,Idonotbelievethatdemocracynecessarilyleadstodevelopment.Ibelievethatwhatacountryneedsto develop is discipline more than democracy. The exuberance of democracyleads to undisciplined and disorderly conditions which are inimical todevelopment.Theultimate test of the valueof a political system iswhether ithelps that society to establish conditionswhich improve the standardof livingforthemajorityofitspeople,plusenablingthemaximumofpersonalfreedomscompatiblewiththefreedomsofothersinsociety.25

OneproblemisthePhilippineshasanAmerican-styleconstitution,oneofthe

mostdifficulttooperateintheworld.Thereisacompleteseparationofpowersbetween the executive, legislature, and judiciary…But a developing countryfacedwithdisorderandunderdevelopmentneedsastrong,honestgovernment…I do not believe that Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, or Singapore could havesucceeded…if they had to work under such a constitution, where gridlock oneverymajor issue isawayof life.Andyouwillnotice that since theVietnamWar and the Great Society…the U.S. system has not functioned even for theUnitedStates.26

Americans seem to think thatAsia is like amovie and that you can freezedevelopmentsoutherewhenevertheU.S.becomesintenselyinvolvedelsewherein the world. It does not work like that. If the United States wants tosubstantiallyaffectthestrategicevolutionofAsia,itcannotcomeandgo.27

Iwouldliketobelievethatyoucandiscernyourinterestsdispassionatelysoas not to have the pendulum swing away from Asia because of your rathertiresomeexperiencesinVietnam.IaccepttheworldasIfindit.OnethingIfindis the disillusionment of the American people against the losses they havesustained.28

WhatworriesyouaboutU.S.culture?

I find parts of it totally unacceptable: guns, drugs, violent crime, vagrancy,unbecoming behavior in public, in sum, the breakdown of civil society. Theexpansion of the right of the individual to behave ormisbehave as he or shepleaseshascomeat theexpenseoforderlysociety…Ithasa lot todowith theerosionof themoralunderpinningsofasocietyandthediminutionofpersonalresponsibility.Theliberal,intellectualtraditionthatdevelopedafterWorldWarIIclaimedthathumanbeingshadarrivedat thisperfectstatewhereeverybodywouldbebetteroffiftheywereallowedtodotheirownthingandflourish.Ithasnotworkedout,andIdoubt if itwill…There isalreadyabacklash inAmericaagainstfailedsocialpoliciesthathaveresultedinpeopleurinatinginpublic, inaggressivebegginginthestreets,insocialbreakdown…Youmusthaveorderinsociety. Guns, drugs, and violent crime all go together, threatening social

order.29

Theideasofindividualsupremacy…whencarriedtoexcess,havenotworked.TheyhavemadeitdifficulttokeepAmericansocietycohesive.Asiacanseeitisnotworking.Thosewhowantawholesomesocietywhereyounggirlsandoldladiescanwalkinthestreetsatnight,wheretheyoungarenotpreyeduponbydrugpeddlers,willnotfollowtheAmericanmodel…Thetop3to5%ofasocietycan handle this free-for-all, this clash of ideas. If you do this with thewholemass,youwillhaveamess…Tohave,daytoday,imagesofviolenceandrawsex on the picture tube, the whole society exposed to it, it will ruin a wholecommunity.30

WhenAsians visit the U.S., many are puzzled and disturbed by conditionsthere:lawandorderoutofcontrol,withriots,drugs,guns,muggings,rape,andcrimes;povertyinthemidstofgreatwealth;excessiverightsoftheindividualatthe expense of the community as a whole; and criminals regularly escapepunishment because the law which presumes innocence over-protects theirhuman rights…In the U.S., the community’s interests have been sacrificedbecause of the human rights of drug traffickers and drug consumers. Drug-related crimes flourish. Schools are infected. There is high delinquency andviolence amongst students, a high dropout rate, poor discipline and teaching,producingstudentswhomakepoorworkers.Soaviciouscyclehassetin.31

I do not believe that if you are libertarian, full of diverse opinions, full ofcompeting ideas in themarketplace, full of sound and fury, thereforeyouwillsucceed.32

America’s sense of cultural supremacy is again evidentwhen theAmericanmedia praises Taiwan, Korea, the Philippines, or Thailand for becomingdemocraticandhavingafreepress.Itispraisewithcondescension,complimentsfromasuperiorculturepattinganinferioroneonthehead.Andit is thissamesense of cultural supremacy which leads the American media to pick onSingapore and beat us up as authoritarian, dictatorial; an overruled, over-restricted, stifling, sterile society. Why? Because we have not complied withtheirideasofhowweshouldgovernourselves.Butwecanillaffordtoletothersexperiment with our lives. Their ideas are theories, theories not proven, not

proven in East Asia, not even in the Philippines after they had governed thePhilippinesfor50years.NoraretheyprovenasyetinTaiwan,orThailand,orKorea.33

MulticulturalismwilldestroyAmerica.There isadanger that largenumbersofMexicansandothersfromSouthandCentralAmericawillcontinuetocometotheU.S.andspreadtheircultureacrossthewholeofthecountry.Iftheybreedfaster than the WASPs [white Anglo-Saxon Protestants] and are living withthem, whose culture will prevail? Will theWASPs change them, or will theimmigrants change the existing culture? They will change each other, but itwouldbesadforAmericanculturetobechangedevenpartially.34

Long termforAmerica, ifyouprojectanother100years,150years into the22ndcentury,whetheryoustayontopdependsuponthekindofsocietyyouwillbe,becauseif thepresent trendscontinue,youwillhaveaHispanicelementinyour society that is about 30, 40%. So, the question is, do you make theHispanicsAnglo-SaxonsincultureordotheymakeyoumoreLatinAmericaninculture?…IftheycomeindripsanddrabsandyouscatterthemacrossAmerica,then you will change their culture, but if they come in large numbers, likeMiami,andtheystaytogether,orinCalifornia,thentheirculturewillcontinue,andtheymaywellaffecttheAnglo-Saxonculturearoundthem.Thatistherealtest.35

IdonotsubscribetotheAmericanorBritishstyleofpoliticking.IamnotsureinEuropetodaywhethertheydigintoyourfamilyaffairs,butinAmerica,theydo.SotheyplayupMichelleObama,thechildren,thedogs,andsoon.Maybeitgivesthemabettersenseofthefamily,buthowdoesthathelpthemindecidingwhetherObamaisagoodpresidentandwhetherheisconcentratingontherightthingstogettheeconomygoing?36

Doeseffectivegovernancerequire“guardians”?

ForSingapore,thebasicchallengeremainsunchanged:unlesswehaveasteadystream of high-quality people to serve as PM [prime minister] and ministers,Singapore as a little reddotwill becomea little black spot…To find able and

committed people of integrity, willing to spend the prime of their lives, andgoingthroughtheriskyprocessofelections,wecannotunderpayourministersandarguethattheirsolerewardshouldbetheircontributiontothepublicgood.

WedidnotbringSingaporefromtheThirdtotheFirstWorldbyhead-huntingministerswilling to sacrifice their children’s futurewhenundertaking a publicserviceduty.Wetookapragmaticcoursethatdoesnotrequirepeopleofcaliberto give up too much for the public good. We must not reduce Singapore toanotherordinarycountryintheThirdWorldbydodgingtheissueofcompetitiveministerialremuneration.37

Theysaypeoplecan thinkfor themselves?Doyouhonestlybelieve that thechapwhocannotpasselementaryschoolknowstheconsequencesofhischoicewhenheanswersaquestionviscerally,on language,culture,andreligion?Butwe knew the consequences.We would starve, we would have race riots.Wewoulddisintegrate.38

To get good government, you must have good people in charge ofgovernment.Ihaveobservedinthelast40yearsthatevenwithapoorsystemofgovernment, but with good strong people in charge, people get passablegovernmentwith decent progress. On the other hand, I have seenmany idealsystems of government fail. Britain and France between them wrote over 80constitutions for their different colonies.Nothingwrongwith the constitution,with the institutionsand thechecksand thebalances.But thesocietiesdidnothavetheleaderswhocouldworkthoseinstitutions,northepeoplewhorespectedthoseinstitutions…Theleaderswhoinheritedtheseconstitutionswerenotequaltothejob,andtheircountriesfailed,andtheirsystemcollapsedinriots,incoups,andinrevolution.39

Ifapeoplehavelostfaithcompletelyintheirdemocraticinstitutionsbecausethey cannot find people of caliber to run them, however good that system, itperishes.Ultimately, it is thepeoplewhorun thesystemwhomake itcome tolife.40

It is essential to rear a generation at the very top of society that has all thequalitiesneededtoleadandgivethepeopletheinspirationandthedrivetomakeitsucceed.Inshort,theelite…Allthosewiththepotentialtoblossomforthmust

do so.That is the spearhead in the society, onwhomdepends thepaceofourprogress.41

Peopleinthemasscanonlygovernthemselves,andobtaintheirneeds,eitherthrough traditional or through representative leaders. A well-ordered societywithalongunbrokenhistory,likeBritainorJapan,hasitsnationalsolidarityanditsestablishmentbasedonthekingandtheroyalfamily,areligionandtheeldersofthechurch, theelite intherulingpartieswhoalternateinpower, theelite inthepublicserviceandthearmedforces,theeliteincommerce,industry,andintheprofessions.42

There is nobetterway to run the country than thebest person for themostdifficultjob.43

IstheUnitedStatesatriskofbecomingEuropean?

Ifyoufollowthe ideologicaldirectionofEurope,youaredonefor.Therewillalways be a tusslewithin societies, as underachieverswantmore support, butaddressingtheirneedsmustbedoneinawaythatdoesnotkillincentive.44

AmericanandEuropeangovernmentsbelievedthat theycouldalwaysaffordto support the poor and the needy: widows, orphans, the old and homeless,disadvantaged minorities, unwed mothers. Their sociologists expounded thetheory that hardship and failure were due not to the individual person’scharacter,buttoflawsintheeconomicsystem.Socharitybecame“entitlement,”and the stigma of living on charity disappeared. Unfortunately, welfare costsgrewfasterthanthegovernment’sabilitytoraisetaxestopayforit.Thepoliticalcostoftaxincreasesishigh.Governmentstooktheeasywayoutbyborrowingtogivehigherbenefitstothecurrentgenerationofvotersandpassingthecostsonto thefuturegenerationwhowerenotyetvoters.Thisresulted inpersistentgovernmentbudgetdeficitsandhighpublicdebt.45

WewouldlikeSingaporeanstoemulatethisAmericanself-helpculture.Thiscultural trait has made Americans great entrepreneurs who have the verve,vitality,andvigortokeepadaptingandchangingtheirbusinesses,andtherefore

theireconomy,muchbetterthanEuropeansorJapanese.46

IftheU.S.becomesmorelikeEurope,withaprettywidespreadsocialsecuritynet,payment to theunemployed,Medicare isgoing tocost themanextra$1.2trillionintenyears—Idonotknowwherethemoneyisgoingtocomefrom—ifthe U.S. goes that way, it will become a slower economy even after privateenterprisehastakenover.47

WhatdoestheU.S.needtodotomaintainglobalprimacy?

The21stcenturywillbeacontestforsupremacyinthePacific,becausethatiswherethegrowthwillbe.Thatiswherethebulkoftheeconomicstrengthoftheglobe will come from. If the U.S. does not hold its ground in the Pacific, itcannotbeaworldleader.48

America’s core interest requires that it remains the superior power on thePacific.TogiveupthispositionwoulddiminishAmerica’srolethroughouttheworld.49

ToholdgroundinthePacific,theU.S.mustnotletitsfiscaldeficitscometogrief.Iftheycometogriefandthereisarunonthedollarforwhateverreason…andthebankersandallthehedgefundsandeverybodycometoaconclusionthattheU.S.isnotgoingtotacklethesedeficits,andtheybegintomovetheirassetsout, that would spell real trouble…America’s debt is what worries me most,becauseitwillabsolutelystrikeattheheartofAmerica’sgloballeadership.50

TheU.S.mustnotletitspreoccupationwiththeMiddleEast—Iraq,Iran,theIsraelis, and oil—allow others, especially China, to overtake its interests inSoutheast Asia. The Chinese are not distracted. They are looking for energyeverywhere,andtheyaremakingfriendseverywhere,includinghere.51

CHAPTER3

TheFutureofU.S.-ChinaRelations

HowlikelyisamajorconfrontationbetweentheUnitedStatesandChina?Whatroleshould thebalanceofpowerplay inAmerica’sstrategyforaddressing theriseofChina?HowshouldU.S.policiesandactionsadjusttodealwiththeriseofChina?Whatpoliciesandactions should theUnitedStatesavoid indealingwith the rise of China? Can U.S. policies and actions significantly influenceChina’s trajectory and behavior as it emerges as a great power? How shouldChinese policies and actions adjust to establish a sustained cooperativerelationship with the United States? Managing a changing relationship withChina is a central challenge ofU.S. foreign policy in the 21st century. In hisanswerstothesequestions,LeeKuanYewoffershisadvicetoU.S.leaders.

HowlikelyisamajorconfrontationbetweentheUnitedStatesandChina?

ThisisnottheColdWar.TheSovietUnionwascontestingtheU.S.forglobalsupremacy.ChinaisactingpurelyasChinainitsownnationalinterests.Itisnotinterestedinchangingtheworld.1

Therewillbeastruggleforinfluence.I thinkitwillbesubduedbecausetheChinese need the U.S., need U.S. markets, U.S. technology, need to havestudentsgoing to theU.S. to studywaysandmeansofdoingbusiness so theycanimprovetheirlot.Itwilltakethem10,20,30years.IfyouquarrelwiththeU.S. and become bitter enemies, all that information and technological

capabilities will be cut off. The struggle between the two countries will bemaintainedatthelevelthatallowsthemtostilltaptheU.S.2

UnlikeU.S.-Soviet relations during theColdWar, there is no irreconcilableideological conflict between the U.S. and a China that has enthusiasticallyembracedthemarket…Sino-U.S.relationsarebothcooperativeandcompetitive.Competitionbetweenthemisinevitable,butconflictisnot.3

AfterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,theU.S.andChinaaremorelikelytovieweachotherascompetitorsifnotadversaries.Butthediehasnotbeencast.The best possible outcome is a new understanding that when they cannotcooperate, theywill coexist and allowall countries in thePacific to growandthrive.4

A stabilizing factor in their relationship…is that each nation requirescooperation from and healthy competition with the other. The danger of amilitaryconflictbetweenChinaandtheU.S.islow.ChineseleadersknowthatU.S.militarysuperiority isoverwhelming,andwill remainso for thenext fewdecades. Theywillmodernize their forces not to challengeAmerica but to beable,ifnecessary,topressureTaiwanbyablockade,orotherwisetodestabilizetheeconomy.5

China will not let an international court arbitrate territorial disputes in theSouthChinaSea, so the presenceofU.S. firepower in theAsiaPacificwill benecessaryiftheUnitedNationsLawoftheSeaistoprevail.6

WhatroleshouldthebalanceofpowerplayinAmerica’sstrategyforaddressingtheriseofChina?

PrudencedictatesthattherebeabalanceofpowerintheAsiaPacificregion.Thisis reflected in a widely held consensus that the U.S. presence in the regionshouldbesustained…Amilitarypresencedoesnotneedtobeusedtobeuseful.Itspresencemakesadifference,andmakesforpeaceandstabilityintheregion.Thisstabilityservestheinterestofall,includingthatofChina.7

PeaceandsecuritybothinEuropeandinthePacificstilldependonabalance

ofpower.AU.S.militarypresenceinbothregionsisverynecessary.However,unless the U.S. economy becomes more dynamic and less debt-laden, thispresence will be much reduced by the end of this decade [the 1990s]. Thelonger-term outlook then becomes problematic. Even if the U.S. deficits arereduced, industrial productivity improves, and exports increase, the U.S.neverthelesscannotaffordandwillnotbewillingtobearthewholecostoftheglobal security burden…The great danger is that the U.S. economy does notrecover quickly enough, and trade frictions and Japan bashing increase asAmerica becomes protectionist. The worst case is where trade and economicrelations become so bad thatmutual security ties are weakened and ruptured.Thatwouldbeadreadfulanddangerousdevelopment.8

TheworldhasdevelopedbecauseofthestabilityAmericaestablished.Ifthatstabilityisrocked,wearegoingtohaveadifferentsituation.9

The size ofChinamakes it impossible for the rest ofAsia, including JapanandIndia,tomatchitinweightandcapacityinabout20to30years.SoweneedAmericatostrikeabalance.10

Thequestion iswhether theU.S.cancontinue its roleasakeysecurityandeconomicplayer in thePacific. If she can,EastAsia’s future is excellent.ButtherewillbeproblemsiftheU.S.economydoesnotrecoveritscompetitivenesswithinthenexttenyears.11

TheU.S.cannotaffordtoabandonJapanunlessitiswillingtorisklosingitsleverage on bothChina and Japan.Whether or not there is anAmerica-JapanMutual Security Treaty, the only stable balance that can be maintained is atriangular one between Japan and the U.S. on the one side and China on theother.ThisisinevitablebecauseofChina’spotentialweight,whichfarexceedsthatoftheU.S.andJapancombined.12

WhyshouldtheU.S.stayengagedtohelpEastAsia’scombinedGNP[grossnationalproduct]toexceedthatofNorthAmerica?Whynotdisengageandabortthis process? Because this process is not easily aborted. It will be slowed orstalled for some years, but only until Japan, China, Korea, and the RussianRepublic establish a new balance. However, no alternative balance can be ascomfortable as the present one, with the U.S. as a major player…The

geopoliticalbalancewithout theU.S.asaprincipalforcewillbeverydifferentfrom thatwhich it now is or can be if theU.S. remains a central player.Mygeneration of Asians, who have experienced the last war, its horrors andmiseries,andwhoremembertheU.S.roleinthephoenix-likerisefromtheashesof that war to prosperity of Japan, the newly industrializing economies, andASEAN[theAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations],willfeelakeensenseofregretthattheworldwillbecomesovastlydifferentbecausetheU.S.becomesalesscentralplayerinthenewbalance.13

President Nixon was a pragmatic strategist. He would engage, not contain,China, but he would also quietly set pieces into place for a fallback positionshouldChinanot play according to the rules as a goodglobal citizen. In suchcircumstances,wherecountrieswillbeforcedtotakesides,hewouldarrangetowin over to America’s side of the chessboard Japan, Korea, ASEAN, India,Australia,NewZealand,andtheRussianFederation.14

HowshouldU.S.policiesandactionsadjusttodealwiththeriseofChina?

ForAmericatobedisplaced,notintheworld,butonlyinthewesternPacific,byanAsianpeoplelongdespisedanddismissedwithcontemptasdecadent,feeble,corrupt,and inept isemotionallyverydifficult toaccept.Thesenseofculturalsupremacy of the Americans will make this adjustment most difficult.Americans believe their ideas are universal—the supremacy of the individualandfree,unfetteredexpression.Buttheyarenot—neverwere.Infact,Americansocietywassosuccessfulforsolongnotbecauseoftheseideasandprinciples,but because of a certain geopolitical good fortune, an abundance of resourcesandimmigrantenergy,agenerousflowofcapitalandtechnologyfromEurope,and two wide oceans that kept conflicts of the world away from Americanshores.15

AmericanshavetoeventuallysharetheirpreeminentpositionwithChina.16

The U.S. cannot stop China’s rise. It just has to live with a bigger China,whichwill be completely novel for theU.S., as no country has ever been bigenoughtochallengeitsposition.Chinawillbeabletodosoin20to30years.17

ThesizeofChina’sdisplacementoftheworldbalanceissuchthattheworldmustfindanewbalancein30to40years.Itisnotpossibletopretendthatthisisjustanotherbigplayer.Thisisthebiggestplayerinthehistoryoftheworld.18

The U.S. Congress is against any new free-trade agreements. If the nextCongresscontinuestoopposeFTAs,valuabletimewillbelost,anditmaybetoolatetotryagain.CongressmustbemadetorealizehowhighthestakesareandthattheoutlookforabalancedandequitablerelationshipbetweentheAmericanand Chinese markets is becoming increasingly difficult. Every year, ChinaattractsmoreimportsandexportsfromitsneighborsthantheU.S.doesfromtheregion.WithoutanFTA,Korea,Japan,Taiwan,andtheASEANcountrieswillbeintegratedintoChina’seconomy—anoutcometobeavoided.19

WhatpoliciesandactionsshouldtheUnitedStatesavoidindealingwiththeriseofChina?

Do not treatChina as an enemy from the outset.Otherwise, itwill develop acounterstrategy to demolish the U.S. in the AsiaPacific; in fact, it is alreadydiscussing such a strategy.Therewill inevitablybe a contest between the twocountriesforsupremacyinthewesternPacific,butitneednotleadtoconflict.20

ThebaitingofChinabyAmericanhumanrightsgroups,andthethreateningoflossofmost-favored-nationstatusandothersanctionsbytheU.S.Congressandadministrationforviolationsofhumanrightsandmissiletechnologytransfers…ignoredifferencesof culture,values, andhistory, and subordinate the strategicconsiderationsofChina-U.S.relationstoanAmericandomesticagenda.Suchahaphazardapproach risks turningChina intoa long-termadversaryof theU.S.Less sensitivity andmore understanding of the cultural realities of China canmakeforalessconfrontationalrelationship.21

With the disintegration of the Soviet Union, U.S.-China relations are nolongeranchored inacommonthreat.TheU.S.hasyet tosettleonabipartisanpolicy on China. China has the potential to become a superpower. America’sinterestistomaintainthestatusquo,whereitistheonlysuperpower,butin30years, China’s growth could challenge this preeminence…U.S. policy towards

Chinahasbeendrivenbyextraneousfactors,likethesaturationmediacoverageofTiananmen, theplightofChinesedissidentsfleeingpersecution,democracy,humanrights,andmost-favored-nationstatus,autonomyforTibetandtheDalaiLama,andTaiwanseekingtobecomeanindependentUnitedNationsmember…Issues which challenge China’s sovereignty and unity will arouse China’shostility. To emphasize such issues makes sense only if it is U.S. policy tocontainChinaandtoslowdownorabortitsrapideconomicgrowth.22

MassiveeconomicreformshaveopenedupChina.Ifliberalizationisthegoalof U.S. policy, thenmore trade and investments are the answers. Instead, theU.S. threatens to derail this process by cutting offmost-favored-nation status.The State Department draws up its report on China’s human rights like aheadmasterdrawingupapupil’sannual report for theparents.ThismaymakeAmericansfeelgoodandChineselooksmall,butEastAsiansareuneasyoveritslong-termconsequences.23

It is theU.S.,more thananyothercountry, thatcan integrateChina into theinternationalcommunity…ThedifficultyarisesfromAmerica’sexpresseddesiretomakeChinamoredemocratic.Chinaresentsandresiststhisasinterferenceinits domestic matters. Outside powers cannot refashion China into their ownimage…American society is too pluralistic, its interests too varied to have asingle or unanimous view of China. Sometimes the language of discourse inAmericahascausedtheChinesetowonderifbyengagementtheU.S.doesnotmeananengagementincombat…ChinahastobepersuadedthattheU.S.doesnot want to break up China before it is more willing to discuss questions ofworldsecurityandstability.24

Can U.S. policies and actions significantly influence China’s trajectory andbehaviorasitemergesasagreatpower?

Yesindeed.IftheU.S.attemptstohumiliateChina,keepitdown,itwillassureitselfanenemy. If instead it acceptsChinaasabig,powerful, risingstateandgives it a seat in theboardroom,Chinawill take thatplace for the foreseeablefuture.SoifIwereanAmerican,IwouldspeakwellofChina,acknowledgeitas

agreatpower,applauditsreturntoitspositionofrespectandrestorationofitsgloriouspast,andproposespecificconcretewaystoworktogether.25

Why should theU.S. take onChina nowwhen it knows that doing sowillcreateanunnecessaryadversaryforaverylongtime—andonethatwillgrowinstrengthandwilltreatitasanenemy?Itisnotnecessary.TheU.S.shouldsay:Wewilleventuallybeequal,and46youmayeventuallybebiggerthanme,butwehavetoworktogether.Haveaseat,andletusdiscusstheworld’sproblems.26

ThisisthefundamentalchoicethattheUnitedStateshastomake:toengageor to isolate China. You cannot have it both ways. You cannot say you willengageChinaonsomeissuesandisolateheroverothers.Youcannotmixyoursignals.27

America’sgreatestlong-terminfluenceonChinacomesfromplayinghosttothethousandsofstudentswhocomefromChinaeachyear,someoftheablestofChinese scholars and scientists. They will be the most powerful agents forchangeinChina.28

AsChina’sdevelopmentnears thepointwhenitwillhaveenoughweight toelbowitswayinto theregion, itwillmakeafatefuldecision—whether tobeahegemon, using its economic and military weight to create a sphere ofinfluence…or to continue as a good international citizen…It is in everyone’sinterestthatbeforethatmomentofchoicearrives,Chinashouldbegiveneveryincentive to choose international cooperation which will absorb its energiesconstructively for another 50 to 100 years. This means China must have theeconomicopportunitiestodothispeacefully,withouthavingtopushitswaytogetresourceslikeoil,andhaveaccesstomarketsforitsgoodsandservices…IfsucharouteisnotopentoChina,theworldmustlivewithapushyChina…TheUnitedStatescanthroughdialogueandcooperationwithChinachartacoursetomanageChina’stransitioninthenext20–30yearsintoabigpower…Chinaisanold civilization and will not easily change because of external pressure orsanctions.Butchangeswillcomewhentheirleaders,thinkers,andintellectualsbecomeconvincedon theirown thatadoptingcertainattributesandfeaturesofothersocietieswillbenefitChina.29

ThebestwaytoquickenthepaceanddirectionofpoliticalchangeinChinais

to increaseher trade and investment linkswith theworld.Thenherprosperitywilldependincreasinglyonthecompatibilityofhereconomicsystemwiththoseof the major trading nations. And wide-ranging contacts will influence andmodifyherculturalvaluesandmoralstandards.30

IntegratingChinaintotheglobalsystemwillbuildupstrongvestedinterestsinChinatoplaybyinternationalrules.ItwillincreaseChina’sinterdependencefor trade, services, investments, technology, and information. Theseinterdependentlinkscouldincreasetoapointwheretobreaktheminaunilateralbreachofinternationalobligationswouldcarryunbearablecosts.31

PeaceandsecurityintheAsiaPacificwillturnonwhetherChinaemergesasaxenophobic,chauvinisticforce,bitterandhostiletotheWestbecauseittriedtoslowdownorabortitsdevelopment,oreducatedandinvolvedinthewaysoftheworld,morecosmopolitan,moreinternationalizedandoutward-looking.32

How should Chinese policies and actions adjust to establish a sustainedcooperativerelationshipwiththeUnitedStates?

From 1945 to 1979,Chinawas engaged in a series ofwars that nearly brokethem…Thisgenerationhasbeenthroughhell:theGreatLeapForward,hunger,starvation, near collision with the Russians…the Cultural Revolution gonemad…I have no doubt that this generation wants a peaceful rise. But thegrandchildren?They think that theyhave already arrived, and if theybegin toflex theirmuscles,wewill have a very different China…Grandchildren neverlistentograndfathers.Theotherproblemisamorecrucialone: ifyoustartoffwith thebelief that theworldhasbeenunkind toyou, theworldhasexploitedyou,theimperialistshavedevastatedyou,lootedBeijing,doneallthistoyou…thisisnogood…YouarenotgoingbacktooldChina,whenyouweretheonlypowerintheworldasfarasyouknew…Now,youarejustoneofmanypowers,many of them more innovative, inventive, and resilient…If I were America,Europe, or Japan, I would spend time to make sure that the mindset of theyounger generation is not one of hostility, but one of acceptance and anunderstanding that you arenowa stakeholder,whichwasBobZoellick’s very

aptdescriptionof theirrole…Makethemfeel that theyarestakeholders,andifthisearthgoeswarm,theywillbeinasmuchtroubleasanyoneelse.33

ItisvitalthattheyoungergenerationofChinese,whohaveonlylivedduringa period of peace and growth in China and have no experience of China’stumultuous past, are made aware of the mistakes China made as a result ofhubrisandexcesses in ideology.Theyhave tobe imbuedwith therightvaluesandattitudestomeetthefuturewithhumilityandresponsibility.TheauthorsofChina’s doctrine of peaceful emergence are acutely conscious that as Chinaresumes its recovery, it has the responsibility and selfinterest to assure itsneighbors,andtheworldatlarge,thatitsemergenceisbenign,notathreat,butaplus for the world, that it will try to avoid disruption and conflict…China isawareoftheproblemsitsrapidgrowthwillpresenttotherestoftheworldandwishes to work together with the international community to minimize thedisturbance. It is to the good of China to study how to mitigate the adverseimpactsofitsgrowth.34

ThewaysinwhichChinesesuperioritywillbeexpressedwillundoubtedlybequitedifferentthanintheearlierera.TakethecurrentcaseofEastAsia,wheretheyhave,obviously,establishedadominanteconomicpositioninrelationswiththeirneighbors,andusedthatpositionincludingaccesstoamarketof1.3billionpeopleandsignificantinvestmentsinothercountriestotheiradvantage.IfstatesorenterprisesdonotacceptChina’spositionandpayappropriatedeference,theyarefacedwiththethreatofbeingshutoutofarapidlygrowingmarketwith1.3billionpeople.35

CHAPTER4

TheFutureofIndia

Will India rise to become a great power, and if so, on what timeline?Whatconstraints does India’s system of democratic governance impose on itslongterm prospects? What constraints does India’s culture impose on itslongterm prospects? What are India’s current economic strengths? What areIndia’slongtermeconomicchallengesandlikelyperformance?WhatareIndia’seconomicprospectsrelativetoChina’sinthenextdecade?Howsignificantforthe rest ofAsia is India’s democraticmodel, especially in contrast toChina’sauthoritarian model? Can India serve in Asia as a strategic counterweight toChina?WhatistheforecastforU.S.-Indiarelations?AsalongtimeobserverofIndia’s economy, politics, and regional role, Lee Kuan Yew is uniquelypositionedtoanswertheprecedingquestions.

WillIndiarisetobecomeagreatpower,andifso,onwhattimeline?

Onmy earlier visits in 1959 and 1962,whenNehruwas in charge, I thoughtIndiashowedpromiseofbecomingathrivingsocietyandagreatpower.Bythelate 1970s, I thought it would become a big military power…but not aneconomicallythrivingonebecauseofitsstiflingbureaucracy.1

What constraints does India’s system of democratic governance impose on its

longtermprospects?

Indiahaswasteddecadesinstateplanningandcontrolsthathaveboggeditdowninbureaucracyandcorruption.AdecentralizedsystemwouldhaveallowedmorecenterslikeBangaloreandBombaytogrowandprosper…Thecastesystemhasbeen the enemy ofmeritocracy…India is a nation of unfulfilled greatness. Itspotentialhaslainfallow,underused.2

There are limitations in the Indian constitutional system and the Indianpoliticalsystemthatpreventitfromgoingathighspeed…Whateverthepoliticalleadershipmaywant to do, it must go through a very complex system at thecenter,andthenevenamorecomplexsysteminthevariousstates…Indianswillgoatatempowhichisdecidedbytheirconstitution,bytheirethnicmix,bytheirvotingpatterns,and the resultingcoalitiongovernments,whichmakes forverydifficultdecision-making.3

It ispartoftheconstitutionalsystemwhichhasbeenacceptedbythepeopleand is established now. There will be a constant tinkering around with stateboundaries, linguistic affinities, caste quotas…All those adjustments detractfromadynamicmeritocracyandpreventIndiafrommaximizingitspotential.4

India’spoliticalleadersaredeterminedtoreform,buttheIndianbureaucracyhasbeenslowerandresistanttochange.Regionaljostlingandcorruptiondonothelp. Furthermore, populist democracy makes Indian policies less consistent,with regular changes in ruling parties…India has poor infrastructure, highadministrative and regulatory barriers to business, and large fiscal deficits,especiallyatthestatelevel,thatareadragoninvestmentandjobcreation.5

If all Indian ministers and top bureaucrats were like Narayana Murthy[cofounderandformerchiefexecutiveofficerofInfosys]—hardworking,toughtaskmasters,hardnegotiators,butalwaysforward-looking—Indiawouldbeoneof the fastest-growing countries in the world, and in one generation wouldbecomeafirst-worldcountry.However,Murthyprobablyrealizesthatnosingleperson can change India’s system of governance to become as efficient asInfosys.6

WhatconstraintsdoesIndia’scultureimposeonitslongtermprospects?

India is not a real country. Instead, it is 32 separate nations that happen to bearrayedalongtheBritishrailline.TheBritishcame,conquered,establishedtheRaj,incorporatedundertheirruleanamalgamof175princelystates,andruledthemwith1,000EnglishmenandseveraltensofthousandsofIndiansbroughtuptobehavelikeEnglish.7

Iamagainstasocietywhichhasnosenseofnurturing itsbest to rise to thetop.Iamagainstafeudalsocietywhereyourbirthdecideswhereyoustayinthepeckingorder.Theexampleofthat,parexcellence,isIndia’scastesystem.8

Indiaisanestablishedcivilization.NehruandGandhihadachancetodoforIndiawhatIdidforSingaporebecauseoftheirenormousprestige,buttheycouldnotbreakthecastesystem.Theycouldnotbreakthehabits.9

LookattheconstructionindustriesinIndiaandChina,andyouwillknowthedifferencebetweenonethatgetsthingsdoneandanotherthatdoesnotgetthingsdone,buttalksaboutthings.…ItispartlybecauseIndiaissuchadiversecountry—itisnotonenation,but32differentnationsspeaking330differentdialects…InChina,itis90%HanChineseallspeakingthesamelanguage,withdifferentaccents, but reading the same script. If you stand up in Delhi and speak inEnglish,outof1.2billionpeople,maybe200millionwillunderstandyou.IfyouspeakinHindi,maybe250millionwillunderstandyou.IfyouspeakinTamil,80 million people will understand you. So there is an enormous differencebetweenthetwocountries…Wearecomparingorangesandapples…Letmenotbemisunderstood. The upper class in India is equal to any in theworld. TheBrahmins,whoarethechildrenofthepriests…areasbrightandassmartasyoucan find anywhere in the world, but…they face the same hurdles. And alsobecause, in their caste system, if you are a Brahmin and you marry a non-Brahmin,yougodownincaste,soyourgeneticpoolisfrozenineachcaste.10

TheaverageIndiancivilservantstillseeshimselfprimarilyasaregulatorandnotasafacilitator.TheaverageIndianbureaucrathasnotyetacceptedthatitisnot a sin tomake profits and become rich.The average Indian bureaucrat haslittle trust in India’sbusiness community.Theyview Indianbusinesspeople as

money-grabbing opportunists who do not have the welfare of the country atheart,andallthemoresoiftheyareforeign.11

WhatareIndia’scurrenteconomicstrengths?

India’s private sector is superior to China’s…Indian companies followinternationalrulesofcorporategovernanceandofferahigherreturnonequityasagainst Chinese companies. And India has transparent and functioning capitalmarkets.12

IndiahasastrongerbankingsystemandcapitalmarketsthanChina.Indiahasstrongerinstitutions—inparticular,awell-developedlegalsystemwhichshouldprovide a better environment for the creation and protection of intellectualproperty.13

India—with an average age of 26, compared toChina’s 33, andwithmuchfasterpopulationgrowth—willenjoyabiggerdemographicdividend,butitwillhave to educate its people better, or else, the opportunity will turn into aburden.14

WhatareIndia’slongtermeconomicchallengesandlikelyperformance?

Unless India moves away from its mindset, it will be a case of lostopportunities…It has to build super highways, introduce super fast trains, andbuildbiggerandbetterairports.Itwillalsohavetoacceptthattobeadevelopednation, it has tomove its people from the villages to urban areas, asChina isdoing.15

After Indira Gandhi’s son died, I said to her…“Take this chance, open upIndia,changethepolicy.LookatIndiansoverseas,seehowwelltheyaredoinginEngland,inSingapore,allovertheworld.Youareconfiningandconscribingthembyyourpolicies,byyourbureaucracy.”Shetoldme:“Icannotdoit.Thisis this. That is the way India is”…I did not see anybody else. She had thegumptiontodeclareastateofemergency,andbythetimeyouhavethegutsto

dothat,youshouldhavethegutstochangethesystemandletIndianenterprisebreakout.So thatwaswhenIbecameresigned that Indiawasgoing togo theslow path. And at that time, I saw China rising…breaking away fromcommunism.SoIknewthattheracewouldnotbeanequalone.Igaveup.16

India is a thicket of rules and regulations and bureaucracy that you have tofindyourwaythrough.17

Indiaprobablyhasthreetofiveyearstofixitsinfrastructure.Ifitdoesnot,itriskslosingoutintheglobaleconomicsweepstakes.18

IndiamustemulatetheeffectivewayinwhichChinahasbuiltupitsextensivecommunications and transportation infrastructure, power plants, and waterresources, and implements policies that lead to huge FDIs [foreign directinvestments] in manufacturing, high job creation, and high growth. India’sspectaculargrowthhasbeen inIT[information technology]services,whichdonotgeneratehighjobcreation.19

Themoment Indiahas the infrastructure inplace, investmentswill come in,and it will catch up very fast.What India needs is amore liberalized systemwhichallowsmoreinternationalcompetitiontoenter.Thenitwillbeabletoplaytothelevelofinternationalcompanies.20

Indialacksfastconnectivitybetweencities…Onceitgetsitslogisticsright—roads,ports, railways—andcutsdownred tape, itwillget jobsnotonly in IT,but in manufacturing and all. Jobs will grow, and the country will betransformed.21

To create jobs, the main thrust of reforms must be in manufacturing. Thatrequires a change in labor laws to allow employers to retrenchworkerswhenbusinessdemandisdown,streamliningthejudicialprocesses,reducingthefiscaldeficit, loosening up the bureaucracy, and most of all, improvinginfrastructure.22

India cannot grow into a major economy on services alone. Since theindustrial revolution, no country has become a major economy withoutbecominganindustrialpower.23

Corruption bedevils both, but bureaucratic red tape has lowered India’sefficiencyandeffectivenessmorethanChina’s.24

Indianeeds to, firstofall,cutdownonred tapeism;second,providegreaterincentives for the private sector; third, address the challenge of infrastructureshortages; and, finally, liberalize foreign direct investment norms in thecountry.25

EvennowwhenIndialiberalizes,itsellsstate-ownedenterprisesbutsaysthatit cannot dismiss workers. How the hell is it going tomake them profitable?Howcanitexpandandmakethemproductiveandbegintoemployworkersonadifferentbasis?26

India’s narrower band of educated peoplewill be aweakness in the longerterm. And although top-quality Indian manpower is in high demand, largenumbers of engineers and graduates lack the skills required in a changingeconomy and remain unemployed…Only over half of each Indian cohortcompletesprimaryschool,abigloss.27

India’s leaders, startingwithNehruandhisgeneration,weremesmerizedbythesupposedlyrapidgrowthandindustrializationof theSovietUnion.And,ofcourse, this is what British economists of the time…were recommending: bigcapital accumulation, big projects, iron, steel,making agricultural implements.Thenyoudevelop…Theybelievedinit…WhenIndiastartedchangingin1991,’92withManmohanSingh,whowashimselfaplanner,theyhadalreadylost40yearsofgrowth.Theyhadtheproblemnowofdismantlingallthesemonopolies.Andtheunionsarenowpartandparcelofthesebigstate-ownedcompanies,whodo not want them to be privatized, because if you run them efficiently, theworkforcewillbereducedbytwo-thirdsorone-half.28

India’shistoryhasleftitskepticalofforeigninvestmentsandinward-lookingin economics…Policies of self-reliance are no longer relevant in aninterdependentworldwithfast-changingtechnology…AsecondrelicofIndia’shistorical legacy is its preoccupationwith fair distribution…To redistribute allthegainsintheearlystagesofgrowthwillslowdownthecapitalaccumulationnecessary to generate further growth. Wealth springs from entrepreneurship,which means risk taking…The only way to raise the living conditions of the

pooristoincreasethesizeofthepie.Equalityofincomesgivesnoincentivetotheresourcefulandtheindustrioustooutperformandbecompetitive.29

ThelackofaneconomicallyeducatedelectoratehasmadeiteasyforIndia’sleaders to engage in economic populism, which has unsettled the course ofliberalization. National interest is often subservient to special interests. Manyneededreformshavebeenstalledduetooppositionfromspecialinterestgroups.Specialintereststhriveinanatmosphereofpopulism.Inthelast20years,therehasbeenaproliferationofschemesforcheapfood,freepower,andsubsidizedloans…They impose a heavy cost on the whole economy…The distinctionbetweenwelfareandpopulismhasblurred.30

TherearethreeIndianschoolsinSingapore.Thereweregoingtobemore,butI said no. You either go to a Singapore school or you go back to India,because…evenifthey[Indians]stayonaspermanentresidentsanddonationalservice, they arenot readily absorbedbecause theyhavebeenoriented towardIndian culture…The textbooks in these schools are all India-oriented, theknowledgeisIndian,thesentiments,andeverything.Thatistheproblem.31

Indiahadmany first-rate universities at independence.Except for a few topuniversitiessuchastheIndianInstitutesofTechnologyandIndianInstitutesofManagementthatstillrankwiththebest,itcouldnotmaintainthehighstandardsofitsmanyotheruniversities.Politicalpressuresmadeforquotasforadmissionbasedoncasteorconnectionswithmembersofparliament.32

WhatareIndia’seconomicprospectsrelativetoChina’sinthenextdecade?

Donot talk about India andChina in the same breath.They are two differentcountries.ButdoesthatmakeIndiaanon-player?No.Itisabiggerplayerthanthe whole of ASEAN [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations] puttogether.33

The systems are not comparable…China’sGDP [gross domestic product] isthreeandahalftimesthatofIndia.Indiaisgrowingatabouttwo-thirdstherateofChina.ButIndiaisabigcountryandacounterweightintheIndianOcean.34

India’seconomycangrowtoabout60–70%thatofChina…Itisnotgoingtobe bigger—on present projections. But 60–70% of China with a populationwhichwillbebiggerthanChina’sby2050issomethingconsiderable,andIndiahassomeveryablepeopleatthetop.35

WhyhasChina’speacefulrise,however,raisedapprehensions?IsitbecauseIndiaisademocracyinwhichnumerouspoliticalforcesareconstantlyatwork,making for an internal system of checks and balances?Most probably, yes—especiallyasIndia’sgovernmentshavetendedtobemadeupoflargecoalitionsof10to20parties…IndiacanprojectpoweracrossitsbordersfartherandbetterthanChinacan,yet there isnofear that Indiahasaggressive intentions…Indiadoes not pose such a challenge to international order as China—and will notuntil it gets its social infrastructure up to First World standards and furtherliberalizesitseconomy.Indeed,theU.S.,theEuropeanUnion,andJapanrootforIndia because theywant a better-balancedworld, inwhich India approximatesChina’s weight…What if India were well ahead of China?Would AmericansandEuropeansberootingforChina?Idoubtit.Theystillhaveaphobiaofthe“yellow peril,” one reinforced by memories of the outrages of the CulturalRevolutionandthemassacresinTiananmenSquare,nottomentiontheirstrongfeelingsagainstChinesegovernmentcensorship.36

China is focused on the U.S. and just wants to keep the Indians at arm’slength.37

IamnotsurethatIndiawantsapieceoftheconsumerdemandfromChina’sgrowingmiddleclass,because India is scaredof thecompetition.TheChinesehaveofferedtheIndiansafreetradeagreement,buttheIndianshavenotsnappedatitbecauseChinesegoodswillgointoIndiaandcompete.38

As long as there is free-market bargaining, India will just have to learn tooutbidChina.ChinawillnotgotowarwithIndia.Itispreparedtotakerisks;forexample,itisintheNigerDelta,riskingChineseliveswithChinesemoney,butithasdecidedthatit isworthit.It isinAngolaandSudan.Itwantssomethingout of Iran. It is making friends with the Central Asian republics. It wants apipeline from Kazakhstan into China over thousands of kilometers, and it ispreparedtobuildit.Thisisfree-marketcompetition.Idonotseeitasbeing,“If

you agree to sell to India, Iwill beat you up,” but rather as, “Whatever Indiaoffersyou, Iwillofferyoumore.”It isgoing toplayby therulesof thegameandisquiteconvincedthatitcanwinthatway.39

Howsignificant for the rest ofAsia is India’s democraticmodel, especially incontrasttoChina’sauthoritarianmodel?

ItwouldbesignificantifitwasachievingbetterresultsthanChina’smodel,butitisnot.40

Politicalsystemsthatyieldinferioreconomicperformancewillultimatelybediscardedforthosethataremoreproductive.41

Democracyshouldnotbemadeanalibiforinertia.Therearemanyexamplesofauthoritariangovernmentswhoseeconomieshave failed.Thereareasmanyexamples of democratic governments who have achieved superior economicperformance. The real issue is whether any country’s political system,irrespectiveofwhether it isdemocraticorauthoritarian,can forgeaconsensusonthepoliciesneededfortheeconomytogrowandcreatejobsforall,andcanensure that these basic policies are implemented consistently without largeleakage.42

India’s system of democracy and rule of law gives it a longterm advantageover China, although in the early phases, China has the advantage of fasterimplementationofitsreforms.43

IfChina’spoliticalstructuresdonotadjusttoaccommodatethechangesinitssociety resulting from high rates of growth, India will have an advantagebecauseofitsmoreflexiblepoliticalsysteminthelongerterm.44

CanIndiaserveinAsiaasastrategiccounterweighttoChina?

IhaveaselfishmotiveinwantingIndiatoemergeasearlyaspossibleasamajoreconomic power in world politics. If India does not emerge, Asia will be

submerged(Lee’sstatementtoJ.R.D.Tatain1974).45

“LeeKuanYewemphasizedthenecessityofanIndianpresenceintheregion,either through amultilateral security arrangement or by the enunciation of an‘AsianMonroeDoctrine’todissuadepossible‘poaching’inAsia.HesaidIndiawas the ideal candidate to undertake such a role because she had beenconductingherforeignpolicy‘onabasisofequalityandnotonabasisofpowerrelations.’ The role that he envisaged for Indiawas that of a ‘guardian’ as heurged ‘India to take an active interest in the security, political stability, andeconomic development of the smaller Southeast Asian nations’” (Sunanda K.Datta-Ray’s assessment of Lee’s view of Southeast Asia following thewithdrawalofWesternpowersinthelate1970s).46

Koreaistoosmall.Vietnamistoosmall.SoutheastAsiaistoodisparate.Youneedanotherbigplayertoholdthebalance.47

Who is the counterweight? Japan cannot be the counterweight…Together,Japan and America can be a counterweight, economically, physically, andmilitarily,butwhoistheXcounterweightwithinAsia,becauseAmericamay,in100or200years,becomelessabletodominateAsia?ButtheIndiansarehereforkeeps.48

Indiahassucceededinmodernizingitsarmedforces,especiallyitsnavy,anddefending its security.Although theChinesearebuildingaport inBurmaandanotherinPakistan,IndiawilldominatetheIndianOceanforalongtime.49

Indiadoesnotgeographically fit in thePacific.But the contest between theU.S. andChinawill be in thePacific and the IndianOcean.Chinahasmovednaval forces into the IndianOcean toprotect itsoil supply from theGulf, andcommodities fromAfrica.That iswhere the Indiansarea force. If the Indiansare on theAmerican side, theAmericanswill have a great advantage. So theChinesehave tohaveacounter, andhavedevelopedports inMyanmarand inPakistan.50

India does not exert much economic or geopolitical influence in SoutheastAsiabecausetheregion’sattentionisfocusedonChina,whichisthesourceofpowerprojection.51

WhatistheforecastforU.S.-Indiarelations?

There isno immediateU.S.-India strategicpartnership toencircleChina.Evenwhen the relationship grows, India will remain an independent player. It willdefend its interestswithChina and cooperatewithChinawhere their interestscoincide.52

CHAPTER5

TheFutureofIslamicExtremism

What threat does Islamic extremism pose to theWest?What are the roots ofIslamic extremism? What role does Islam itself play in fueling Islamicextremism?Whatare thekeyobjectivesof Islamicextremists?How likelyareIslamic extremists to achieve those objectives? What factors will affect thefutureof Islamic extremism?What roledomoderateMuslimsplay in fightingIslamic extremism? How long will Islamic extremism pose a threat to globalsecurity? Lee Kuan Yew’s answers to these questions reflect the fact thatSingapore’s neighbors are Muslim countries and that Singapore has been apotentialtargetofterroristattacks.

WhatthreatdoesIslamicextremismposetotheWest?

The big divide is no longer between communist and democratic countries, orbetweenWestandEast.NowitisbetweenMuslimterroristsandtheU.S.,Israel,and their supporters. A secondary battle is between militant Islam and non-militantmodernistIslam.1

We are faced with a new situation, never faced before in the history ofcivilization.Wehaveagroupofpeoplewillingtodestroythemselvestoinflictdamageonothers.Theonlyonesbefore themwere theTamilTigers.But theywerefightingforatangiblecause,forahomelandforTamilsinSriLanka.ThisisfightingforIslam,adifferentcausespringingfromareligiousconviction.2

AlQaeda-styleterrorismisnewanduniquebecauseitisglobal.AneventinMorocco can excite the passions of extremist groups in Indonesia. There is asharedfanaticalzealousnessamongthesedifferentextremistsaroundtheworld.3

This surge in Islamist terrorism will take years to tamp down. In themeantime, the world is at risk of these terrorists acquiring weapons of massdestruction. Were that to happen, the slaughter would be horrendous. Thenuclearprogramsofroguestates,therefore,mustbestopped,andtheirstockpilesofweaponsandmaterialconfiscated.4

Islam has not been a problem. However, contemporary radical Islam, orIslamism, is a problem.Oilwithout Islamism can be a problem, but Islamismplus oil becomes a volatile mix. Islamism plus oil plus weapons of massdestruction equals a threat…A nuclear-capable Iranwill significantly alter thegeopoliticalbalance.Othercountries in theMiddleEastwillalsowantnuclearweapons, increasing the chances that fissile material for WMD [weapons ofmassdestruction]willfallintoterrorists’hands.5

WhataretherootsofIslamicextremism?

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not the cause of Islamic terrorism. AmongMuslims,especiallyintheMiddleEast,thereisaprofoundbeliefthattheirtimehas come and that theWest has put themdown for too long.While pan-Arabnationalism failed to unite theMuslimworld in the 1950s and 1960s, Islamicfervorhasbecomeanalternativeunifyingforce.6

Militant Islam feeds upon the insecurities and alienation that globalizationgeneratesamongthelesssuccessful.AndbecauseglobalizationislargelyU.S.-ledanddriven,militantIslamidentifiesAmericaandAmericansasthethreattoIslam.ThatAmericasteadfastlysupportsIsraelaggravatestheirsenseofthreat.ButterrorismwouldcontinueeveniftheMiddleEastproblemweresolved.7

EversincethefoundingofIsrael,ArabsintheMiddleEasthavebeentaughtto hate Israelis and Jews in their schools,madrassas, andmosques, reinforcedregularlybyrepeatedmedia imagesofpowerful Israelimilitary incursions into

the occupied Palestinian territories. After 40 years of patchy economicdevelopment, many Arabs feel anger and humiliation that their once gloriousIslamic civilizationhas beendiminishedby theWest, especiallyAmerica, andcorruptedbyitslicentiousculture…EndingthePalestinianconflictwilldepriveextremistsofaconvenientrallyingpoint.ButunlessmilitantgroupsintheArabcountries and Islamic theocracies are seen to fail, Jemaah Islamiyah andothermilitant groups in the non-Arab Muslim world will continue to recruitextremists. Even if there is an Israeli-Palestinian settlement, the U.S. and itsWestern allies must ensure that Islamic militancy is defeated by economic,military, and other means to clearly demonstrate to non-Arab Muslims thatfanaticismandmilitancyhavenofuture.8

The nature of Islam in Southeast Asia has been changing over the last 30years.Firstandforemost,afterthepriceofoilquadrupledin1973,SaudiArabiahas generously financed the missionary movement by building mosques andreligiousschoolsandpaying forpreachers throughout theworld, spreading theteachings and practices of its austere version of Wahhabist Islam. Next, theoverthrowof theShahinIranin1979…hashadaprofoundimpactonMuslimbeliefsinIslam’spower.Finally,theparticipationoflargenumbersofSoutheastAsianMuslimsinthejihadinAfghanistanduringthe1980sandthe1990shasradicalizedsignificantnumbersoftheSoutheastAsianMuslims.9

When we asked our Muslims, “Why have you become so strict in yourreligious practices?” they answered, “Because we are better educated and sounderstand better what must be observed.” But the bigger factor is the peerpressure from the heart of theMuslimworld.With the increase in religiosityworldwide as a result of Saudi funding of mosques, madrassas, and religiousteachers,wholepopulationsaregearedup.Thensomeof those inahighpitchare hijacked by the extremist radicals to become jihadists.AlQaeda and theirlocalextremistsrecruitfromthemosquesthosewholooksuitablefortheirownprivate religious classes, where they are taught that it is the duty of all goodMuslimstofightforalloppressedMuslimsworldwide,and,ifnecessary,todieforthecause,tobecomemartyrs.10

InSoutheastAsia,theMuslimsaredifferent.Theyarerelaxed,easytogetonwith. But over the last 30-odd years, since the oil crisis and the petrodollars

became a major factor in the Muslim world, the extremists have beenproselytizing, building mosques, religious schools where they teachWahhabism…sending out preachers, and having conferences. Globalizing,networking.AndslowlytheyhaveconvincedtheSoutheastAsianMuslims,andindeedMuslims throughout theworld, that the gold standard is SaudiArabia,thatthatistherealgoodMuslim.11

WhatroledoesIslamitselfplayinfuelingIslamicextremism?

Muslimswanttoassimilateus.Itisone-waytraffic…Theyhavenoconfidenceinallowingchoice.12

SamuelHuntingtonsentmeapiecehewaswritinginForeignAffairscalledthe“ClashofCivilizations.”WhenIsawhim,Isaid,look,Iagreewithyouonlywhere the Muslims are concerned, only there…Hinduism, ChineseConfucianismorCommunism,JapaneseShintoism,theyaresecularreally.Theyknow that to progress, you must master science and technology…But theMuslimsbelieve that if theymaster theQu’ranand theyareprepared todoallthatMuhammad has prescribed, theywill succeed. So, we can expect troublefromthemandso,ithappened.13

Muslims socially do not cause any trouble, but they are distinct andseparate…Islamisexclusive.14

WhatarethekeyobjectivesofIslamicextremists?

Islamists believe the time is ripe to reassert Islam’s supremacy. The jihadistsamongthemhavechosenIraqastheirsecondbattleground.TheirgoalistodrivetheAmericansoutof Iraq, justas theydrove theSovietsoutofAfghanistan…Radical Islamic groups in several countries want to engineer a clash ofcivilizations,andoilpowerhasgiventhemthemeans.15

WhatOsamabinLadenwants is to get all of the oil of theGulf states andinstituteTaliban-typeregimes.Thenhewillhavealltheindustrializedcountries

—Christian Europe,America, Japan, China—by the throat. Then theywill beabletohavetheirMuslimcaliphateacrosstheworld.16

Has the situation in Iraqmade terrorismworse? In the short term, yes.Butterrorismwasalreadysettogetworse.BeforethewarinIraq,jihadistacolytesinSingapore,Indonesia,thePhilippines,Spain,Holland,England,andmanyothercountrieswerebeingpreparedformartyrdombytheirimams.ThejihadistswanttodestroyIsraelanddrivetheU.S.outoftheoilstatesoftheGulf.Thiswitch’sbrewofhatewouldhavebeenon theboil regardlessofU.S.actions in IraqorAfghanistan.The randomkillingwillgoon foryearsandwill stoponlywhenthejihadistsandtheirteachersrealizethatinsteadofbendingittotheirwill,thebombing of innocent people has turned the world—including many Muslimcountries,suchasJordan—againstthem.17

HowlikelyareIslamicextremiststoachievethoseobjectives?

The Al Qaeda Islamic extremists believe that by repeated huge suicidebombings, they can drive the Americans out of the Middle East, destroyAmerica,andfrightenEurope,andtherebykeeptheirMuslimsocietiespureandpious,asintheseventhcentury.Theycannotsucceed,becausetechnologywillcontinue to develop and change our economies and our lifestyles,whetherweareChristians,Muslims,Jews,Buddhists,Hindus,atheists,oragnostics.18

IdonotseetheIslamicextremistswinning,andbythatImeanabletoimposetheirextremistsystem.Icanseetheminducingfearandinsecurity,andcausingfear,buttheydonothavethetechnologyandtheorganizationtooverwhelmanygovernment.19

They want to create…a caliphate that comprises Malaysia, Indonesia, thesouthernPhilippines,andSingapore. It isabsurd,notachievable…WhyshouldThai,Malaysian,orFilipinoMuslimsgiveuppowerandsurrendersovereigntytothiscaliphateledbyIndonesians?…Itmaytakeanother20,30years…butthetheocraticstatewillfail.AndsuccessivefailuresintheMuslimworldwillshowthatthetheocraticstate,likethecommuniststate,isamirage.20

Islamic terrorists will gradually lose their capacity to strike such fear inEuropeandtheU.S.,asthesecountriestakestiffandcomprehensivemeasurestocounter them…IfMuslims inEurope and theU.S. do not distance themselvesand expose these terrorists in their midst, they will be feared and ostracized.Theywillfinditdifficulttogetgoodjobs.InMuslimcountries,itisamatteroftimebeforethemoderateMuslimshavetoputdowntheextremists,ortheywillendupwithTalibangovernmentsinchargeofthem,asinAfghanistan.21

With the killing of Osama bin Laden, the Islamic extremist movement hasbeen franchisedout, and eachgroupworks on its own. It is accordinglymorediverseanddifficult topindown.At thesame time,however, splinter terroristgroupsdonothave the intellectual capacity to imagineandexecuteattacksonthescaleof9/11.22

WhatfactorswillaffectthefutureofIslamicextremism?

Whether Islamicextremism isabiggeror smallerproblem10,15,or25yearsfromnowdependsonwhathappensintheoilstates,particularlySaudiArabia.23

ThecostsofleavingIraqunstablewouldbehigh.Jihadistseverywherewouldbeemboldened…A few years ago, the Taliban in Afghanistan and SaddamHussein’s Iraqwere a check on Iran. TheTaliban is again gathering strength,andaTalibanvictory inAfghanistanorPakistanwouldreverberate throughouttheMuslimworld. Itwould influence thegranddebateamongMuslimson thefuture of Islam. A severely retrograde form of Islam would be seen to havedefeatedmodernity twice: first theSovietUnion, then theUnitedStates.Therewouldbeprofoundconsequences,especiallyinthecampaignagainstterrorism.24

If the United States leaves Iraq prematurely, jihadists everywhere will beemboldened to take thebattle toWashingtonand its friendsandallies.Havingdefeated the Russians in Afghanistan and the United States in Iraq, they willbelieve that theycanchange theworld.Evenworse, if civilwarbreaksout inIraq,theconflictwilldestabilizethewholeMiddleEast,asitwilldrawinEgypt,Iran,Jordan,Lebanon,SaudiArabia,Syria,andTurkey.25

If U.S. forces leave Iraq precipitately because of terrorist attacks, Muslimterroriststhroughouttheworldwillbetriumphant.WheretheVietnamesewerecontent to see Americans leave and to concentrate on building socialism inVietnam,IslamicmilitantswillpursuedepartingAmericanstoallcornersoftheglobe.IfthemilitantssucceedinthwartingtheU.S.inIraq,theirzealousnesstodie in pursuit of an Islamic caliphate spanning the globe will reach newheights.26

WhatroledomoderateMuslimsplayinfightingIslamicextremism?

OnlyMuslimscanwinthisstruggle.Moderate,modernizingMuslims,political,religious, civic leaders together have to make the case against thefundamentalists. But the strong, developed countries can help. The NATO[NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization]alliesmust…presentasolidblock.Muslimmodernizers must feel that the U.S. and its allies will provide the resources,energy, and support tomake themwinners.No onewants to be on the losingside.27

OnlyMuslimsthemselves—thosewithamoderate,moremodernapproachtolife—canfightthefundamentalistsforcontroloftheMuslimsoul.MuslimsmustcountertheterroristideologythatisbasedonapervertedinterpretationofIslam.This battle will be joined when the fundamentalist Islamic terrorists seek todisplace their presentMuslim leaders, as theymust if they are to set up theirversionoftheIslamicstate.28

IdidtalkaboutextremistterroristsliketheJemaahIslamiyahgroup,andthejihadistpreacherswhobrainwashedthem.Theyareimplacableinwantingtoputdown all who do not agree with them. So their Islam is a perverted version,whichtheoverwhelmingmajorityofMuslimsinSingaporedonotsubscribeto.Ialso pointed out that our Muslim leaders are rational, and that the ultimatesolution to extremist terrorism was to give moderateMuslims the courage tostand up and speak out against radicals who have hijacked Islam to recruitvolunteersfortheirviolentends.29

Atfirstsight,thisisastrugglebetweenextremistradicalsintheMuslimworld

ononesideandAmerica,Israel,andtheirWesternalliesontheother.Butlookdeeperandyouwillseethatatitsheart,itisastruggleaboutwhatIslammeansbetween the extremist Muslims and the rationalist Muslims, betweenfundamentalistMuslimsandmodernistMuslims.30

Eventually, the fight will boil down to one betweenMuslims who want toreturn to the Islamof the11thcentury (whenIslamshutout theoutsideworldand cut itself off fromnew ideas) and thosewhowant to see amodern Islamattunedtothe21stcentury.IftheWestweretoreachaconsensusandagreeontheirstrategyagainstterrorists,asitdidduringtheColdWar,thentogetherwithJapan, China, and Russia, moderate Muslims who want to modernize theirsocietieswouldhaveconfidenceandcouragetotakeontheextremistsandstopthemfromproducingmoreterrorists.31

ModeratesintheMuslimworld,bynotbeingabletotakeastandandtaketheleadandstarttheargumentwiththeextremistsinthemosques,inthemadrassas,theyareduckingtheissueandallowingtheextremists tohijacknot justIslam,butthewholeoftheMuslimcommunity.32

The majority of Muslims have nothing to do with terrorism or extremism.However,militantterroristgroupshavehijackedIslamastheirdrivingforceandhavegiven it a virulent twist.Throughout theMuslimworld, themilitants areout to impose their version of Islam. The majority of Muslims who aremoderatesarecaught inbetween(1) theirsympathyforandidentificationwiththePalestiniansandangeragainsttheIsraelis,and(2)theirdesireforapeacefullifeofgrowthandprogress.To resolve theproblemof terrorism, theU.S.andothersmustsupportthetolerantnon-militantMuslimssothattheywillprevail.33

Tostop the increase in terrorist recruits, theU.S.andEuropemustdiscreditextremist ideology, which takes Qu’ranic passages out of context, preacheshatred against non-Muslims, and seeks to spread Islam through violence.MuslimswhowanttobeapartofthemodernworldofscienceandtechnologymustconfrontandstoptheseIslamistsfrompreachingviolenceandhatred.Theymust get theMuslim scholars and religious teachers to preach that Islam is areligion of peace, not terror, and that it is tolerant of other peoples and theirfaiths…IncountrieswhereMuslimsareaminority,asinBritain,theymusttake

a clear-cut stand against Islamist terrorists…In Muslim countries such asPakistan and Iraq,Muslimswill be forced to confront the Islamists orwitnesstheirgovernmentsbeingoverthrownandtheirpeopledraggedbackintoafeudalpast,justastheTalibandidinAfghanistan.34

The United States must be more multilateral in its approach to isolatingjihadist groups and rally Europe, Russia, China, India, and all non-Muslimgovernments to its cause, along with many moderate Muslims. A worldwidecoalition is necessary to fight the fires of hatred that the Islamist fanatics arefanning. When moderate Muslim governments, such as those in Indonesia,Malaysia, the Persian Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan, feel comfortableassociating themselves openly with a multilateral coalition against Islamistterrorism,thetideofbattlewillturnagainsttheextremists.35

Tomakethelong-termburdensustainable,theU.S.needsabroadalliance,tospreadtheload,toreduceexcessiveburdensonitself.Itneedsotherstoagreeonthe basic causes and solutions. It is not poverty, it is not deprivation, it issomething more fundamental, a resurgence of Arab and Islamic pride, and abeliefthattheirtimehascome.TheobjectivemustbetoreassureandpersuademoderateMuslims…that theyarenotgoing to lose, that theyhave theweight,theresourcesoftheworldbehindthem.Theymusthavethecouragetogointothemosquesandmadrassasandswitchofftheradicals.36

HowlongwillIslamicextremismposeathreattoglobalsecurity?

Islamicterrorismhasbeenbrewingsincethe1970sandcannotbetakenofftheboil easily or soon. The war against terrorism will be long and arduous.Terrorists, the existence of weapons of mass destruction, and the continuingIsraeli-Palestinianconflictwillbethreatsformanyyears.37

Islamicterrorismisgoingtobeaproblemforthisworldforaverylongtime,and that problem will not change whoever wins the 2004 U.S. presidentialelections.38

The problem of Islamic terrorism will not be easily extirpated…Moderate

Muslims have to be encouraged to stand up and speak out against radicalism.Theyneedconfidencethattheycan.Wecangettothetippingpoint,butIdonotknowhowlongitwilltake…Islamicterroristswillcontinuetouseviolenceuntilshown that theirmethodswill not succeed. If they are successful in Iraq, theywilltrytotoppleseculargovernmentsinothercountries,suchasIndonesia.39

Americansmakethemistakeofseekinglargelyamilitarysolution.Youmustuse force. But forcewill only dealwith the tip of the problem. In killing theterrorists,youwillonlykilltheworkerbees.Thequeenbeesarethepreachers,whoteachadeviantformofIslaminschoolsandIslamiccenters,whocaptureand twist the minds of the young…Terrorists say: “I will be happy to die amartyr.Aftermetherewillbeamillionothers.”40

WeshouldlearntolivewiththePakistan-terrornexusforalongtime.MyfearisPakistanmaywellgetworse.41

CHAPTER6

TheFutureofNationalEconomicGrowth

WhatarethelessonsofSingapore’srisefromthethirdworldtothefirstworldinone generation? What are the chief drivers of national growth andcompetitiveness?What role domore intangible factors such as values play indriving growth and competitiveness?What core competencies should today’sworkerpossess?LeeKuanYew’sinsightfulanswerstothesequestionsdrawonhis remarkableexperience in takingSingaporefromthe thirdworld to thefirstworldinafewdecades.

WhatarethelessonsofSingapore’srisefromthethirdworldtothfirstworldinonegeneration?

MydefinitionofaSingaporean…isthatweacceptthatwhoeverjoinsusispartofus.And that isanAmericanconcept.Youcankeepyourname,Brzezinski,Berlusconi,whateveritis,youhavecome,joinme,youareAmerican.Weneedtalent,weacceptthem.Thatmustbeourdefiningattribute.1

When I started, the questionwas how Singapore canmake a living againstneighborswhohavemorenaturalresources,humanresources,andbiggerspace.Howdidwedifferentiateourselvesfromthem?Theyarenotcleansystems;werun clean systems. Their rule of law iswonky;we stick to the law.Oncewecometoanagreementormakeadecision,westicktoit.Webecomereliableandcredibletoinvestors.World-classinfrastructure,world-classsupportingstaff,all

educatedinEnglish.Goodcommunicationsbyair,bysea,bycable,bysatellite,andnow,overtheInternet.2

Make haste slowly. Nobody likes to lose his ethnic, cultural, religious, evenlinguisticidentity.Toexistasonestate,youneedtosharecertainattributes,havethings in common. If you pressurecook, you are in for problems. If you gogently, but steadily, the logic of events will bring about not assimilation, butintegration. If I had tried to foist the English language on the people ofSingapore, I would have faced rebellion all around. If I had tried to foist theChineselanguage,Iwouldhavehadimmediaterevoltanddisaster.ButIofferedeveryparentachoiceofEnglishandtheirmothertongue,inwhateverordertheychose.Bytheirfreechoice,plustherewardsofthemarketplaceoveraperiodof30years,wehaveendedupwithEnglishfirstandthemothertonguesecond.Wehaveswitchedoneuniversityalreadyestablished in theChinese languagefromChineseintoEnglish.Hadthischangebeenforcedinfiveortenyearsinsteadofbeingdoneover30years—andbyfreechoice—itwouldhavebeenadisaster.3

Mostfailuresinthethirdworldweretheresultoftheleadersoftheimmediatepost-independence period, the 1960s to the 1980s, abiding by the theory thenprevailingthatsocialismandstateenterpriseswouldhastendevelopment.Theirinterventionisteconomicpoliciesledtomisallocationofresourcesandincreasedopportunities for corruption. That theory was demolished as a result of thecollapseoftheSovietUnion.Thereisnoreasonwhythirdworldleaderscannotsucceedinachievinggrowthanddevelopmentiftheycanmaintainsocialorder,educate their people, maintain peace with their neighbors, and gain theconfidenceofinvestorsbyup-holdingtheruleoflaw.4

Whatarethechiefdriversofnationalgrowthandcompetitiveness?

Apeople’s standard of living depends on a number of basic factors: first, theresourcesithasinrelationtoitspopulation…;second,itsleveloftechnologicalcompetence and standardsof industrial development; third, its educational and

training standards; and fourth, the culture, the discipline, and drive in theworkforce.5

Demography,notdemocracy,willbethemostcriticalfactorforsecurityandgrowth in the 21st century…Countries that most welcome migrants have aneconomicadvantage,butopenimmigrationpoliciesalsocarryrisks.Newwavesof migrants will be ethnically different, less educated, and sometimesunskilled…Itwillgraduallydawnongovernmentsthatimmigrationalonecannotsolve their demographic troubles and that much more active governmentinvolvementinencouragingordiscouragingprocreationmaybenecessary.6

The quality of a nation’s manpower resources is the singlemost importantfactor determining national competitiveness. It is a people’s innovativeness,entrepreneurship,teamwork,andtheirworkethicthatgivethemthatsharpkeenedgeincompetitiveness.7

Three attributes are vital in this competition—entrepreneurship, innovation,andmanagement.Thefirstistheentrepreneurshiptoseekoutnewopportunitiesand to take calculated risks. Standing still is a sure way to extinction…Thesecondattribute,innovation,iswhatcreatesnewproductsandprocessesthataddvalue…Thethirdfactorisgoodmanagement.Togrow,companymanagementshavetoopenupnewmarketsandcreatenewdistributionchannels.8

The economy is driven by new knowledge, new discoveries in science andtechnology,innovationsthataretakentothemarketbyentrepreneurs.Sowhilethescholarisstillthegreatestfactorineconomicprogress,hewillbesoonlyifheuseshisbrains—notinstudyingthegreatbooks,classical texts,andpoetry,but in capturinganddiscoveringnewknowledge, applyinghimself in researchand development, management and marketing, banking and finance, and themyriadofnewsubjectsthatneedtobemastered.Thosewithgoodmindstobescholars should also become inventors, innovators, venture capitalists, andentrepreneurs;theymustbringnewproductsandservicestothemarkettoenrichthelivesofpeopleeverywhere.9

The global landscape for investments is changing. First, advances intechnology and globalization have reduced the cost of outsourcing, madedistancelessofabarrier,andchangedtheeconomicsofhowbusinessescanbest

structure theiroperationsacrosscountries…Second, technologyand innovationhave become more important factors for economic success. The 2000WorldEconomic Forum Competitiveness ranking placed increased emphasis oneconomiccreativity.Thereportdistinguishedbetweeninnovativecountriesandcountries that aremerely good recipients of technology transfer, reflecting theweight investorsgive to technologicalsophistication,andnotsimplylowwagecosts.Third,competitionforinvestmenthasintensified…Thekeytoinnovationand technology is people. We must develop and nurture our talent so thatinnovation and creativity will be integral to education and training. Oureducation system isbeing revamped tonurture innovationandcreativity, fromkindergartentouniversity,andontolifelonglearning.10

Thereisnowaglobalmarketplaceasgoods,services,capital,andknowledgebecomeevenmoremobile.Thesedevelopmentshaveacceleratedtheintegrationof regionalmarkets.However, inorder tobenefit fromglobalization,countriesmustensurethattheirlawsandinstitutionsfacilitatetheglobalflow.Thereisafundamentalneedfortheruleoflaw.Itensuresstabilityandpredictability.Next,betweenparticipatingcountries,acongruenceoflawsandrulesgoverningtradeandinvestmentwilldevelop.Iteaseseconomicactivitybyloweringtransactioncosts.TheRomanandBritishEmpireswere examples in historyof how tradeflourished for hundreds of years under the protection of a comprehensive,unifiedsystemoflaws.11

Businesses now source for talent and opportunities globally. They invent,collaborate, or acquire technologies and capabilities globally to ensure theircompetitiveedge.AstheInternetmakesmoremarketscontestable,businessesinAsiamustcompeteonthisplatformorbesweptaside.Thenationalcounterpartto businesses that source globally is a society that welcomes foreign talent.Societies thatwillsucceedare thosewhicheasilyassimilateforeigners.SiliconValleyissuchaplace.Notonlyisit“colorblind”anduniquelymeritocratic,ithasaculturethatdrawsnewcomersin.Asia’sbusinesspeoplemustacquiretheseattributesandbegloballyliterate.12

Convergence and competitionwill also bring about changes at the firm andindustry level. Multinational corporations will become multiculturalorganizations in order to compete successfully in knowledge-based sectors.

Corporations that get their ideas from only one culture will lose out ininnovation.Thosethathaveacreativemeshingofculturesandideaswillforgeahead…To be competitive globally, firmswill have to employ talents for keypositions from the countries they operate in. Corporations will need the bestpeople from throughout theworld for key positions…Management guru PeterDrucker has predicted that the greatest change in the way business is to beconducted in the next centurywill be the accelerating growth of relationshipsbasednotonownershipbutonpartnership.13

Wemust continue to attract asmany able and talented people fromChina,India,theregion,andfromdevelopedcountries,toaddtoourteam.Withoutthisinputof foreign talent, even theU.S.couldnothavebeenso successful.TheiratomicbombowedmuchtoEuropeantalentfleeingfromHitlerinthe1930sand40s…Even the American space program owed its start to the German rocketscientist [Wernher] von Braun, who invented the V bomb inWWII and wascapturedby theU.S. armyas thewar ended.Hewas taken toAmerica.Sincethen, every year, thousands of talented professionals, academics, researchers,and writers are drawn from the UK and EU [European Union] to the U.S.because they are made welcome in America and given the facilities for theirresearch or become successful in their professions or business. This hasenhanced America’s high performance. If America, with 280 million people,needstotopupwithtalent,Singapore,with3million,mustdoso,orwewillberelegatedtothesecondorthirddivision.14

We draw our talent from only 3million people.A shortmountain range isunlikelytohavepeaksthatcanequalMountEverest.YouneedalongmountainrangeliketheHimalayasunlessyouareaspecialpeopleliketheJewsinIsrael.WithapopulationoffourmillionJews,theyhavethetalentsofapopulationofmorethan40million.EveryoneknowsthatShanghaineseare thebrightestandsharpestofpeople.But fewknowwhy. It isbecause, forover150years, eversinceitbecameatreatyportfortheforeignpowers,ithasdrawntheambitious,energetic, and talented from the Yangtze Delta, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and otherprovinces along the river, a catchmentof some200–300million.Even thoughShanghai regularly loses leaders toBeijing, it still has an abundanceof talent,becauseitdoesnotdependonlyonthe12millioninthecityitself.15

The impressive advance of those industrial countries whoseworkforces areproductivity-conscious, like Japan, and the sad decline of those countries inEuropewithworkforcesboggeddownbynegativeunionattitudes,likeBritain,holdobviouslessonsfromwhichwemustlearn.Singaporeansmusttaketoheartone simple fact: unlesswe improve ourselves through education and training,andthroughdevelopingthewilltobeproductive,ourfuturecannotbeassured.16

Thepressureofenvyisinevitable.Butconsiderthealternative,whichisslowgrowth.Thedisparitywill stillbe therebetween thehighendand the lowendbecause of globalization, but we are all poorer, right?…I see no benefit instoppinggrowth,becausetheenvywillstillbethere.17

Whatroledomoreintangiblefactorssuchasvaluesplayindrivinggrowthandcompetitiveness?

Besidesthestandardeconomicyardsticksforproductivityandcompetitiveness,thereareintangiblefactorslikeculture,religion,andotherethniccharacteristicsandnationalethosthataffecttheoutcome…Foramoderneconomytosucceed,awhole population must be educated…China has built much better physicalinfrastructure than India…The Chinese bureaucracy has been methodical inadoptingbestpractices in their systemofgovernanceandpublicpolicies…Allsaidanddone,itisthecreativityoftheleadership,itswillingnesstolearnfromexperienceelsewhere, to implementgood ideasquicklyanddecisively throughan efficient public service, and to convince themajority of people that toughreformsareworthtaking,thatdecideacountry’sdevelopmentandprogress.18

Moreimportantthantechnologicalcapabilitiesisthespiritofinnovationandenterprise. In an era of startling technological change, it is the enterprisingindividuals,prepared to seizenewopportunities, thecreatorsofnew ideasandbusinesses, who forge ahead. Ordinary businesspeople can make a living bybeinggoodfollowers,buttherichrewardsgotoinnovatorsandentrepreneurs.19

Wheredoyouproduceyourentrepreneursfrom?Outofatophat?…Thereisadearthof entrepreneurial talent inSingapore…Wehave to start experimenting.The easy things—just getting a blankmind to take in knowledge and become

trainable—we have done. Now comes the difficult part. To get literate andnumerateminds to bemore innovative, to bemore productive, is not easy. Itrequiresamindsetchange,adifferentsetofvalues.20

Habitsthatmakeforhighproductivityinworkersaretheresultofthevaluesimplantedinthemathome,inschool,andattheworkplace.Thesevaluesmustbe reinforced by the attitudes of society. Once established, like a language asociety speaks, the habits tend to become a self-reproducing, self-perpetuatingcycle…Iamastonishedtofind…that55%ofourworkersstilladmittothefearof being disliked by fellowworkers for doing their job well. As long as thisattitude persists, higher performance will be discouraged by the prevailingstandardsofmediocreworkers.Betterworkerswillrefrainfrombecomingpace-setters.Thisattitudeisnegative.Singaporeansmustunderstandthattheirgroupinterestswill be advanced if eachworker strives to achieve his best, and thusencourageshispeers todobetter,byhisexample.There isnobetterway thanthe personal example of managers and grassroots leaders to bring about thischangeofattitudesandvalues.Old-fashionednotions thatmanagersareout toexploit workers are irrelevant in today’s industrial climate. Equally outmodedalso are management views that trade unionists are troublemakers. These aremindsetsof thepast.Theyarestereotypes tobebanishedifweare tobuilduprelationshipsofconfidenceandcooperationbetweenmanagement,unionists,andworkers.21

We have focused on basics in Singapore. We used the family to pusheconomic growth, factoring the ambitions of a person and his family into ourplanning.We have tried, for example, to improve the lot of children througheducation.Thegovernmentcancreateasettinginwhichpeoplecanlivehappilyandsucceedandexpress themselves,butfinally it iswhatpeopledowiththeirlivesthatdetermineseconomicsuccessorfailure.Again,wewerefortunatewehadthisculturalbackdrop,thebeliefinthrift,hardwork,filialpiety,andloyaltyintheextendedfamily,and,mostofall,therespectforscholarshipandlearning.Thereis,ofcourse,anotherreasonforoursuccess.Wehavebeenabletocreateeconomicgrowthbecausewefacilitatedcertainchangeswhilewemovedfromanagriculturalsocietytoanindustrialsociety.WehadtheadvantageofknowingwhattheendresultshouldbebylookingattheWestandlaterJapan.22

Language and culture must both change to enable a people to solve newproblems. Indeed the strength of the language and culture depends on theirsuppleness to help the people adjust to changed conditions. For example,Japanese language and culture of a century ago since theMeijiRestorationof1868 have been considerably developed and adjusted tomeet new needs. TheJapanesepeople successfullyadoptedWestern scienceand technologybecausetheyweresuppleandpragmaticabouttheirlanguageandculture.TheyborrowednewWesterninstitutionsandideas.Theyintroduceduniversaleducation,createdatwo-chamberparliament,introducedlegalcodes,andrevampedtheirarmyandnavy along German and British models. They freely adoptedWestern words,addingvigortotheJapaneselanguage.Similarly,afterdefeat inWorldWarII,duringandaftertheAmericanoccupationofJapan,Americanwords,ideas,andsocial organizationswere adapted and adopted by control from theAmericansandimprovedonthem,justastheyhadcopiedandimprovedonmanyChineseinnovationsliketheabacus.23

Whatcorecompetenciesshouldtoday’sworkerpossess?

Unlikeworkers in therepetitive,machine-basedage, tomorrow’sworkersmustdependmoreontheirownknowledgeandskills.Theyhavetomanagetheirowncontrol systems, supervise themselves, and take upon themselves theresponsibilitytoupgrade.Theymustbedisciplinedenoughtothinkontheirownandtoseektoexcelwithoutsomeonebreathingdowntheirneck.Workersinthenew economy cannot be contentwith just problem solving and perfecting theknown.Theymustbeenterprisingandinnovative,alwaysseekingnewwaysofdoingthejob,tocreatetheextravalue,theextraedge.24

Today, because competence in English is no longer just a competitiveadvantage,manycountriesaretryingtoteachtheirchildrenEnglish.Itisabasicskill that many children want to acquire in the 21st century…If one is tosucceed, one will need a mastery of English, because it is the language ofbusiness,science,diplomacy,andacademia.25

CHAPTER7

TheFutureofGeopoliticsandGlobalization

What are some of the biggest problems that the world faces over the nextdecade?

WhatareRussia’slong-termprospects?WillBrazil,Russia,India,andChina—theso-calledBRICcountries—gaininfluenceasablocovertime?Whatlessonshave you learned from the global financial crisis? What opportunities andchallenges does globalization present?Whatmust individuals, companies, andcountriesdotosucceedinaglobalizingworld?Isglobalizationreversible?Thischapter offers Lee Kuan Yew’s direct and penetrating answers to thesequestions.

What are some of the biggest problems that the world faces over the nextdecade?

First, there is the eurozone. If theGreekdebt crisis isnothandledproperly, itwillaffectPortugal,Spain,andItaly.ThenyouhaveachainreactionthatharmsnotonlytheeconomiesofEurope,butalsothoseoftheU.S.andChina.

SecondistheperennialproblemofNorthKorea.Ayoungman,KimJong-un,hastakenoverandistryingtoshowtheworldthatheisasboldandadventurous

ashispredecessors.

Third is Japan’s stagnation,which indirectly affects thewhole of theAsia-Pacific. The aging of its society has prevented its economy from taking off.Japan is not accepting migrants because it wants to maintain a pure-bloodedpopulation.

FourthisthechanceofaconflictintheMiddleEastoverthebombthatIranisdeveloping,whichwouldhaveacatastrophicimpactonmarkets.Iran’snuclearprogram is the challenge that the world is most likely to bungle. China andRussia are unlikely to enforce UN sanctions, and if Iran feels like they willcontinuenottoenforcethem,itwillbeencouragedtocontinuebuildingabomb.At some point Israel has to decide, whether with or without U.S. support,whethertotryanddestroyIran’shardenedundergroundshelters.IfIrangetsthebomb,SaudiArabiawillbuythebombfromPakistan,theEgyptianswillbuythebomb fromsomeone, and thenyouhaveanuclearizedMiddleEast.Then it isonlyamatteroftimebeforethereisanuclearexplosionintheregion.1

WhatareRussia’slong-termprospects?

Russia’s future is no different than itwas 10 years ago or even 20 years ago,when the Soviet Union collapsed, except that it has lost its hold on energyresources in the Caucasus and Kazakhstan. It has been unable to develop aneconomy that generates wealth independent of exports of energy and naturalresources. The Russian population is declining. It is not clear why, butalcoholism plays a role; so do pessimism, a declining fertility rate, and adeclining life expectancy. Vladimir Putin’s challenge is to give Russians ahopeful outlook for the future: stop drinking,work hard, build good families,andhavemore children.Siberia andVladivostok are fillingupwithmore andmoreChinese.ThelandsonthebendoftheAmurRiverwillberepopulatedbyChinese.Russiansmaysuddenlydecidethatthefutureisworthlivingandbringmorechildrenintotheworldtoreversethisdemographictrend,butIdonotseethatshiftoccurringinthenearfuture.2

Theywoulddoenormouslybetter if theycouldget their systemright.Their

systemisnotfunctioning…becauseithasgonehaywire.Theyhavelostcontrolover the various provinces…They have got an enormous nuclear arsenal, butwhat else? Their army is a very different army now…Their population isdeclining…EveryyearmoreRussiansdiethanRussiansarebornbecausepeoplearenotoptimistic.InAmerica,peopleareoptimisticandsayIwillbringachildinto theworld. But when your life is so harsh, and from time to time it getsbetterwhen theoil pricegoesup,but that ismomentary, youhave adifferentviewofthefuture.3

Will Brazil, Russia, India, and China—the so-called BRIC countries—gaininfluenceasablocovertime?

As a counterweight, yes—they will be able to prevent excesses by theAmericans and theEuropeans—but otherwise no. They are different countriesondifferentcontinentsthathappentobegrowingfasterthanothercombinationsof countries on those continents, so somebody said: why not bring them alltogetherandmakethemintoaglobalforce?Sure,ChinawillbuysoybeansfromBrazil.Itisagrowingcountrythatneedsresourcesandcanpayforthem.ButtheChineseandIndiansdonotsharethesamedreams.4

WilltheASEANcountriesgaininfluenceasablocovertime?

Yes, but very slowly, because they have not internalized the idea of having acommonmarket, combining resources, and inviting investments into differentparts of ASEAN [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations] depending onthoseparts’comparativeadvantages.Theyalso lackconfidence.Thailand is insometroubleoverThaksinShinawatraandthemonarchy.VietnamremainsverywaryofChina.Cambodiawill takealongtimetorecover.Burmalookslikeitwillopenup this time,but thinkof its startingpoint: ithasbeenclosed for solongthatnothingcanmakeitworse.5

To remain at the center of East Asia’s economic and political evolution,ASEANmust integrate more closely and with urgency. Otherwise, it will be

marginalized…ASEANlacksstrategicweight.6

Placed between the giants of China and India, ASEAN countries have tocombinetheirmarketstocompeteandberelevantasaregion.Thereisnootherchoice.7

Whatlessonshaveyoulearnedfromtheglobalfinancialcrisis?

The global financial crisis was caused by excesses of the liberal system ofregulations and the belief that a completely free market will allow enormousinnovationandallocatecapitaltothemostprofitableenterpriseswiththehighestreturns. Once the Federal Reserve Chairman decided it was not necessary toregulatederivativesandsupervisethem,thefusewaslit.OnceyoufindthatyoucanmashupalotofgoodandbadassetsinonebundleandpassonyourriskallaroundEuropeandotherpartsof theworld,youhavestartedsomething likeaPonzischemewhichmustcometoanendsometime…Thebusinessofapersonin a financial institution is to make the biggest profit for himself, so justcondemning the bankers and the profit takers does notmake sense.You haveallowedtheserules,andtheyworkwithintheserules.8

Freeenterprisehasbroughtaboutthiscrisis…Governmentshavetocarrythemainburdenandputthesystemright,andthenallowprivateenterprisetopickupandcarryon.But if,havingputmoney into thesebanksandall theseotherenterprises, you then say you cannot pay out bonuses in such large sums, noryour stock options, then you will change the nature of the Americanfreeenterprise system. It hasworkedwell because you reward the peoplewhomakethecompanysuccessful.9

Weknowsucharecessionmustcomefromtimetotime.Itisinthenatureofthefreemarketsofthewesternworldthatoureconomyispluggedinto.Peopleand systems tend to be carried away by exuberance. Investors get greedy andrush in to buy, believing that prices will only go up. When prices collapse,investorsfindtheyhavelosthugesums.Despairanddepressionthensetin.10

Prior to the current economic crisis the world did not challenge the

Washington consensus that the Anglo-Saxon economic model is the mostefficient for theallocationof financial resources toproduce thehighest return.However, the U.S. market model is no longer considered ideal. China isconfidentthatitisbetterforthegovernmenttomaintaincontrolofandmanageitseconomy.Chinawillnowalsobeslowertoopenitsclosedcapitalmarketstoavoidlargeinflowsandoutflowsofspeculativeforeigncurrencies.11

Only large continental countries with huge populations like China’s andIndia’scanrampuptheirdomesticconsumptiontoavoidbeingmuchaffectedbythecurrenteconomicturmoil.12

Whatopportunitiesandchallengesdoesglobalizationpresent?

Onephase inhumanhistoryhas ended.Thenewonepromises tobe exciting.ThemovethattriggeredoffaglobalizedmarketbeganinMarch1991,whentheNationalScienceFoundationprivatizedtheInternet,withoutquiterealizingwhata powerful instrument it would turn out to be for increasing productivity,enablingpeopleandbusinessestoreachouttoothersacrossnationalboundaries,andtocreateaglobalintellectualcommunityandaglobalmarketplace.13

Economicpowerwillbespreadovermanycentersacrosstheglobe.Theyare“cities at the intersection,” where people, ideas, and capital from variousgeographic regionsmeet, interact, and influence each other continually. Thesearethebirthplacesofnewknowledge,products,andservices.14

Globalization’spowerwas first demonstrated in the stockmarkets tenyearsago,inJuly1997,withtheonsetoftheAsianfinancialcrisis.Withindays,allofthe region’s emerging markets were affected…The ultimate threat to humansurvivalisglobalwarmingandclimatechange.Thehabitatsofmillions,maybebillions,ofpeoplemaybedamaged…Thescramblefortherichesundertheiceison…Ifsealevelsrisetoinundatemanymillionsofpeople,andifglaciersintheHimalayas,Tibet,andtheAndesmeltaway,leavingmoremillionswithoutenoughwater,therewillbeno“lifeasusual.”15

It is technology, the human conquest of nature, that has changed theworld

forever,moresothanallthechangesinpoliticalandideologicalspheres…Whatwillaffectyourgeneration’s livesmoreprofoundlythananyotherfactor is theincreasingspeedofscientificandtechnologicalchange.Yourliveswillbecomehealthierandlongerbecausethehumangenomehasbeenmapped.Therewillbea floweringofdiscoveries inbiotechnologyover thenext fewdecades…Therewillbemorefoodandgoodsforconsumptionworldwide.Tradeandinvestmentswill expand globally as consumer societies thrive inmore andmore emergingcountries…Morepeoplemakeformoreeconomicgrowth,moreprosperity.Butmorepeopleworldwidealsobuildupgraveproblems:earthwarming,risingsealevels,meltingicecapsascarbondioxideandgreenhousegasesintheairchangeclimates throughout theworld.With a greater density of people, therewill bemore frictionandconflicts as they fight for the same finite space in theworldand for its limited resources, especially oil. There are other deep and abidingproblems:AIDS,drugsmuggling,illegalmigration,globalmafias.Theyarepartandparceloftheglobalizedworld,likeglobalterrorism.16

Thepresentworldisasfullofpromiseasofperils.Newtechnologies,instantcommunications, and fast transportation have integrated theworld. Everybodyknows what is going on around them in the world. Migrations have beenmassive. Hundreds ofmillions from the poorer countries aremoving into thewealthiercountriesinsearchofabetterlife.Greatchangesaretakingplace.Theold established powers, the U.S. and the EU [European Union], have toaccommodate new emerging powers such asChina, India, Russia, andBrazil.Manyotherdevelopingcountries…aretryinghardtocatchup.Meanwhile,earthwarminggoesonasmorecarbondioxideisreleasedeveryday.Climatechangewillalterourhabitatprofoundly,inwayswecannotforesee.17

The rapid technological advancements of the past few years have greatlyaccelerated globalization. With quantum leaps in telecommunications andinnovationsininformationtechnologyliketheInternet,theworldhasbecomeamuchsmallerplace.Physicaldistance,timedifferences,andnationalbordersarenolongerbarrierstothefreeflowofinformation.Itisnownolongernecessaryto travel longdistances to findnewideas.Vastamountsof informationcanbetransmittedinstantaneouslyatthetouchofthekeyboardfromanywhere,andatany time. This trend in IT [information technology] revolution will alter the

natureofsocieties.Itwilltransformthewaywelive,learn,work,anduseleisuretime…Those countries that keep out advances of technology because of itsundesirableby-productswillbelosers.Forbetterorforworse,wehavetoseizethe opportunities offered by the IT revolution, but try tominimize its harmfulside effects…People must stay abreast of the state-of-the-art technology, butmust never lose their core values. Science and technology are decisive indeterminingfutureprogress.Buttheyshouldnotbeallowedtobreakupfamiliesthathavetoimbuechildrenwithastrongsenseofsocialresponsibilityandtheconsciencetodistinguishbetweenrightandwrong.18

BeforeWWII,internationaltradewasmostfreewithintheboundariesofeachof the empires, theAmerican, British, various European, and Japanese. Therewere trade barriers between these imperial blocs. The Americans weredetermined to dissolve these empires after WWII. GATT [the GeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade]wasdesignedtofacilitatecross-bordertradeingoods and services without the unifying control of an imperial center. Itsucceeded brilliantly…But no one foresaw that technological advances incommunicationsandtransportationwouldleadtothegrowthandproliferationofmultinational corporations that are able to expand the production and sale ofgoodsfollowedbyservices,acrossnationalboundaries,andmarket themtoallparts of theworld…Globalization, especially after the developments in the ITsector, has led to developed countries needingmore talent.They have relaxedimmigrationrulesandincreasedthemobilityoftalentinthedevelopingworld…Human talent is at present themost scarce and valuable resource for creatingwealth in the knowledge economy…A negative result of globalization is thewideningof the inequalitybetween thehighly educated and the less educated,betweenurbanandruralincomes,andbetweencoastalandinlandprovinces.Thehighly educated canmove between countries seeking the high rewards in thedeveloped countries, especially in sectors like IT and the Internet. The lesseducated are not mobile and cannot get into the developed countries, wherewagesarehigher.Thisisunavoidableinaworlddrivenbymarketforces.19

Therearenohistoricalprecedentsonhowtomaintainpeaceandstabilityandto ensure cooperation in a world of 160 nationstates. And the age of instantcommunications and swift transportation, with technology growing

exponentially, makes this problem very complex. In one interdependent,interrelatedworld,thedeclineintherelativedominanceoftheleadersofthetwoblocsincreasesthelikelihoodofamultipolarworld,andwithitthedifficultiesofmultilateralcooperation.20

Whatmustindividuals,companies,andcountriesdotosucceedinaglobalizingworld?

At the Forbes Global CEO conference on entrepreneurship, technology, andbusiness leadership in the 21st century, I askedmyself:what is the differencebetween these factors in thepastandatpresent? In their fundamentals,neitherentrepreneurship nor business leadership has changed.What has changed, andchangedbeyond recognition, is technology.Technology requires entrepreneursandbusinessleaderstothinkandactglobally.Theycannotavoidcollaboratingwith,orcompetingagainst,othersinternationally.Anentrepreneurwinsorlosesincompetitionagainstallothersinhislineofbusiness,whethertheyarenationalorforeignplayers,becauseallplayerswillbeabletoenterhisnationaldomainandcompeteagainsthim.Aslongascompetitionwasconfinedwithinnationalboundaries, each countrywas able to nurture its national champions, and theydevelopeddifferentstylesofentrepreneurshipandbusinessleadership,resultingin different corporate cultures…In today’s globalized environment, broughtabout by the IT revolution and theWTO [World Trade Organization], is thispossible?Ibelieveit isinfinitelymoredifficultfornationstocreateincubatorsfornurturingsuchnationalchampions.21

The great challenge today is to adjust to the tectonic shift in the globaleconomicbalance.TherewillbeadramatictransformationinthedecadesaheadasChinafullycompetesin theworldeconomyasamemberof theWTO.AndIndia will not be left out…Our way forward is to upgrade our levels ofeducation, skills, knowledge, and technology. Lifelong learning is a must foreveryoneinthisknowledgeeconomy,withrapidlychangingtechnology.Thosewho are notwell-educated and cannot retrain to be computer literate, or learnnewskillsandacquirenewknowledgeeveryfivetotenyears,willfindithardertogetjobsinconvenientfactories,becausesuchfactorieswillnotbeeconomic

inSingapore.22

Tosucceed,Singaporemustbeacosmopolitancenter,able toattract, retain,andabsorbtalentfromallovertheworld.Wecannotkeepthebigcompaniesoutofthelocalleague.Whetherwelikeitornot,theyareenteringtheregion.Thechoice issimple.Eitherwehaveafirst-classairline,a first-classshipping line,andafirst-classbank,orwedecline.Oneofthethingswedidintheearlyyearswastobuckthethirdworldtrendbyinvitingthemultinationalcorporations,andwesucceeded.Now,wemustbuckthethirdworldtrendtobenationalistic.Wemust be international in our outlook and practices…Our own talent must benurtured tocomeup toworld standardsbyexposureand interactionwith theirforeignpeers.SomeofourbesthavebeenattractedawaybyleadingAmericancorporations.Thisispartoftheglobalmarketplace.23

In an era of rapid technological change, Americans have shown that thosecountries with the largest number of start-ups, especially in the IT industry,whichventurecapitalistsfinance,willbewinnersinthisnextphase…Japanese,Koreans, and other East Asians have to accept some fundamental culturalchanges to compete in a globalized marketplace. Those whose cultures helpthemtoabsorbandembracetalentedpeopleofdifferentculturestobepartofthenew corporate culture will have an advantage. Japanese and East Asians areethnocentric,close-knitsocieties.Theydonoteasilyabsorbforeignersintotheirmidst.TherehastobeafundamentalchangeinculturalattitudesbeforeJapaneseand otherEastAsians can competewith theAmericanswho, because of theirdifferent history, easily absorb peoples of different cultures and religions intotheircorporateteams.24

The digital revolution and the convergence of communications, computers,and the media require more from us than simply copying the softwareinnovationsofthedevelopedcountries.Ourenterprisingyoungpeoplemustbegiventhespaceandscopetocreatebusinessesforthemselves.Thegovernmentmust facilitate the venture-capital funds.We have followed a safe, structuredapproach.Now,ourtalentedyounghavetodispensewiththesafetynetastheygoontheirown.Manywillstumbleandfall,buttheymustpickthemselvesupand try again.The process of opening upmaymake our societymore unruly.Thegravestchallengewillbe toprotect thevalueswecherish…Ifyouwant to

thriveinthemodernworld,thenyoumustnotbeafraid.25

Technology and globalization have created a more level playing field.Becausegoodsandservicescanbemanufacturedorproducedanywhere,thishasreduced the traditional competitiveadvantagesofgeographic location, climate,andnaturalresources.Allcountriescanharnessinformationtechnologyandairtransportation and join the global trading community in goods and services. Ithelpstoclosethegapbetweenadvantagedanddisadvantagedcountries.Butone“X”factorremainsakeydifferentiator,especiallyfordevelopingcountries:thatisethicalleadership…Aclean,efficient,rational,andpredictablegovernmentisacompetitiveadvantage.26

Isglobalizationreversible?

Globalization cannot be reversed, because the technologies that madeglobalization inevitable cannot be uninvented. In fact, better and cheapertransportation and communications will further advance the forces ofglobalization.27

Willtheinternationalordercollapse?Canit?Cantheworldaffordtoallowitto collapse and go into anarchy?…This interconnected world is not going tobecome disconnected…The problems will become more acute the other way:overpopulation,earthwarming,anddisplacementofmillions,maybebillionsofpeople…It scaresme, becausemanyworld leaders have not woken up to theperil that their populations are in. This melting ice cap. I expected greatconsternation! What would happen to this earth? But no. Has it triggeredemergencymeetings to do something about this? Earth warming, the glaciersmeltingaway?…Itisnotanelectionissue…Leaveittothenextpresident…Youcanameliorate thisproblem.Butyoucannotsolve it.Becauseourdependencyonenergywillonlygrow…Idonotseeanytriballeader,anydemocraticleader,anydictatortellinghispeople,“Wearegoingtoforgogrowth.Wearegoingtoconsume less. Travel less. Live a more spartan life, and we will save theearth.”28

Thereisnoviablealternativetoglobalintegration.Protectionismdisguisedas

regionalismwillsoonerorlaterleadtoconflictsandwarsbetweentheregionalblocsastheycompeteforadvantageinnon-blocareas,liketheoilcountriesoftheGulf.Globalismis theonlyanswer that is fair,acceptable,andwillupholdworldpeace.29

CHAPTER8

TheFutureofDemocracy

What is theroleofgovernment?What is theroleofa leader?Howresponsiveshould a leader be to popular opinion? What are the requirements fordemocracy? What are the risks of democracy? What is the proper balancebetweenlawandorder?Whatistheproperbalancebetweencompetitivenessandequality? In the followinganswers,LeeKuanYewpresents theessenceofhispolitical philosophy as well as practical lessons from his leadership ofSingapore.

Whatistheroleofgovernment?

Onlyanefficientandeffectivegovernmentcanprovidetheframeworkinwhichpeoplescanfulfilltheirneeds.Peoplecannotsatisfytheirfundamentalneedsbythemselves.Theyneedthesupportandorganizationofatribe,orofgovernment,to achieve this.Modern technology requires specialization in awide range ofdisciplines.Ahigh-techsocietyneedssomuchknowledgeandsomanyskills.1

Thebusinessofagovernmentisto…makefirmdecisionssothattherecanbecertaintyandstabilityintheaffairsofthepeople.2

Theartofgovernmentisutilizingtothemaximumthelimitedresourcesatthecountry’sdisposal.3

Ourimmediatetaskistobuildupasocietyinwhichpeoplewillberewarded

notaccordingtotheamountofpropertytheyown,butaccordingtotheiractivecontributiontosocietyinphysicalormentallabor.Fromeachaccordingtohisorherability.Toeachaccordingtohisorherworthandcontributiontosociety.4

Agoodgovernmentisexpectednotonlytocarryonandmaintainstandards.Itis expected to raise them.And it is ultimately in the sphereof economics thatresultsmustbeachieved.More jobsmustbecreated;moreprosperitydiffusedamongstmorepeople.5

Itisthebusinessofthegovernmentwhichhasgrownfromthegroundtokeepits representatives on the ground, to ensure that long before a grievance ordissatisfactionreachesacuteness,remediesareputintomotion.Itisnecessarytokeep inconstant touchwith thepeoplenotonly toknowwhat theirgrievancesare,butalsotoconductandorganizethemandinculcateinthemsocialqualitieswhichwillbeusefulinthebuildingupofsociety.6

Westerners have abandoned an ethical basis for society, believing that allproblems are solvable by a good government…In the West, especially afterWorldWar II, the government came to be seen as so successful that it couldfulfill all the obligations that in less modern societies are fulfilled by thefamily…In the East, we start with self-reliance. In the West today, it is theopposite.ThegovernmentsaysgivemeapopularmandateandIwillsolveallsociety’sproblems.7

Whatistheroleofaleader?

Itisthedutyofleaderstoinstillconfidenceinthepeoplesothattheywillstanduptobecounted…Noarmy,howeverbrave,canwinwhenitsgeneralsareweak.Leadersmusthavetheabilitytoplanandchartthewayahead,andthefortitudetostay thecourse…When they fight togetheragainstalloddsandwin,abondwillbeforgedbetweenpeopleandleaders,likethedeepunshakeablefeelingoftrustbetweenanarmyanditsgeneralswhohavebeeninbattletogether.8

Yourjobasaleaderistoinspireandtogalvanize,nottoshareyourdistraughtthoughts.Youmakeyourpeopledispiritedifyoudoso.9

Acorporateleaderdoesnothavetopersuadehisworkerstofollowhim.Thereis a hierarchy in a corporation, and he drives his policies through theorganization.Hisjobistosatisfyhiscustomersandhisshareholders.Apoliticalleader,however,mustpainthisvisionoftheirfuturetohispeople,thentranslatethat vision into policies which he must convince the people are worthsupporting,andfinallygalvanizethemtohelphimintheirimplementation.10

Thetestofleadershipliesnotmerelyinechoingfearsanddoubts,especiallywhenthesefearsanddoubts,howeverreal,arecapableofsolutionandofbeingrendered irrational andunfounded.As leaders of our various communities,werecognize the existence of these anxieties, but we have to take the lead inexorcisingthem.Wecannotaffordtopassivelyletthingsdrift.Wehavetotaketheleadinpublic thinking.Afterhavingdrawnattentionto theinterestsofourcommunitiesthatrequirespecialprotection,wemustformulatesolutionswhichwillsafeguardtheseinterestsandadvancethecommongood.11

You either have the talent or you do not. My job is to find out, quickly,whetherapersonresponsibleforthefateofover2millionSingaporeanshasgotitinhimorher.Ifheorshedoesnot,Iamwastingmytime…Whetheryouteachapersonhowtoplaygolf,oradoghowtobeasnifferofdrugs,thefirstthingyoumustknowis:hasheorshegotit?12

Themostsignificantimprintwecanleaveisnotbyhangingontooffice,butthroughthewaywehandoverthepowertogovern.Wehaveexercisedpowerastrustees for thepeople,with anabiding senseofour fiduciary responsibility…Whenthoseinofficeregardthepowervestedinthemasapersonalprerogative,theyinevitablyenrichthemselves,promotetheirfamilies,andfavortheirfriends.The fundamental structuresof themodernstateareeroded, like thesupportingbeamsofahouseaftertermiteshaveattackedthem.Thenthepeoplehavetopaydearlyandlongforthesinsandcrimesoftheirleaders.Ourfuturestabilityandprogressdependon thosesucceedingusbeing imbuedwith this samesenseoftrusteeship, this awareness that to abuse the authority and power that they areentrustedwithistobetrayatrust.Byhandingoverpowerwhilstwearestillalertand fully in charge, we are able to ensure that our successors have the basicattributestobeentrustedwithpower.Itisfecklesstohangonandtohavepowerwrestedfromuswhenwehavebecomefeeble.Thenweshallhavenosayover

whooursuccessorsare.13

Anationisgreatnotbyitssizealone.Itisthewill,thecohesion,thestamina,thedisciplineof its people, and thequalityof their leaderswhich ensure it anhonorableplaceinhistory.14

The history of a people is not decided in one or two election defeats orelectionvictories. It is a long and relentless process not dependent onpersonsand personalities, but on the political and social and national forces at workwithinagivenmilieu.Anditisonlyaquestionofwhetheronecananalyzeanddecipheranddiscerntheforcesinplayandcalculatetheresultantdirectionofalltheseforces.Theyarefactorsmoreenduring,moredecisivethanalltheslogansthatpeopleorpoliticiansortradeunionistscancoin.15

Whatever the twists and turns of events in the immediate present, therelentless logic of geography and the force of historical, ethnic, and economicforcesmustprevail…Wemustnotgoagainstwhatishistoricallyinevitable.Thisdoes not mean that we passively wait for history to unfold itself. We mustactivelystrivetoacceleratetheprocessofhistory.16

Howresponsiveshouldaleaderbetopopularopinion?

I learned to ignore criticism and advice from experts and quasi-experts,especiallyacademicsinthesocialandpoliticalsciences.Theyhavepettheorieson how a society should develop to approximate their ideal, especially howpovertyshouldbereducedandwelfareextended.Ialwaystrytobecorrect,notpoliticallycorrect.17

WhattheWesternworlddoesnotunderstandisthatattheendoftheday,Iamnot worried by how they judge me. I am worried by how the people I havegovernedjudgeme.18

Idonottakeanythingallthatseriously.IfIdid,Iwouldbequiteasickman.Anumberoffoolishthingswillbesaidaboutyou.Ifyoutakethemallseriously,youwillgetquitedemented.19

Onehasgottogetoverthetemptationofthenewsmediacapturingone’ssoul.Nevermindwhatthenewsmediasay.20

Government, to be effective,must at least give the impression of enduring,and a governmentwhich is open to the vagaries of the ballot box—when thepeople who put their crosses in the ballot boxes are not illiterate but semi-literate,which isworse—isagovernmentwhich isalreadyweakenedbefore itstartstogovern.21

Myideaofpopulargovernmentisthatyoudonothavetobepopularallthetime when you are governing…There are moments when you have to bethoroughly unpopular. But at the end of your term, you should have broughtaboutsufficientbenefits so that thepeople realizewhatyoudidwasnecessaryandwillvoteforyouagain.ThatisthebasisonwhichIhavegoverned.Ifyouwanttobepopularallthetime,youwillmisgovern.22

Ihaveneverbeenoverconcernedorobsessedwithopinionpollsorpopularitypolls. I think a leader who is, is a weak leader. If you are concerned withwhetheryourratingwillgoupordown,thenyouarenotaleader.Youarejustcatching the wind…you will go where the wind is blowing…Between beingloved and feared, I have always believedMachiavelli was right. If nobody isafraidofme,Iammeaningless.WhenIsaysomething...Ihavetobetakenveryseriously…What the crowd thinks ofme from time to time, I consider totallyirrelevant…Thewholegroundcanbeagainst,butifIknowthisisright,Isetouttodo it, and Iamquite sure,given time,aseventsunfold, Iwillwinover theground…My job as a leader is to make sure that before the next elections,enoughhasdevelopedanddiscloseditselftothepeopletomakeitpossibleformetoswingthemaround.23

Whataretherequirementsfordemocracy?

Pakistan, Indonesia,andBurmaaregrimreminders that thedemocraticstate isnotsomethingwhichwilllookafteritselfjustbythesettingupofademocraticconstitution.24

Whatisourjobinademocraticsociety?First,tomobilizeopinion…Wehavegot to get everybody to prepare hismind to bear on these things, or asmanypeople as possible, to argue andwork outwherewe are going,where certainpolicieswillleadus.25

Ademocraticsocietydoesnotrunitselfautomatically.Itrequirestwothingsto succeed.First, theremustbean interestedandvigilantelectorate tochoose,and then to control by the force of public opinion, the politicians it elects tomanagethecountry’saffairs.Second,ademocraticsocietymusthavehonestandablepoliticalpartiestogiveitachoiceofalternativeleaderships.26

Whether Singapore succeeds as a thriving democracy with an honestadministration, or sags into disrepair and drifts into dictatorship with anadministrationriddledwithcorruption,dependsuponwhetherthereareenoughmenandwomenwith education and trainingprepared to comeout todo theirshareratherthanseethecountrygodown.27

In a democratic society, it is not enough just to sit back and watch thechampions in the rings slog itout.Yourunions,yourofficials,yourmembers,andeveryoneofyoumusttakeastand,forbytakingastand,youwillmakethebattlelesscostlyandlesspainfulandsuccessevenmorecertain.Forifthebattleislost…thenyou,yourunions,youracademicrights,andacademicfreedomwillallbecomesomanyemptywords.28

Citizensmustbepreparedtosupporttheleaderstheyvotedforbymakingtheeffort and accepting the discipline and sacrifices necessary to achieve agreedobjectives.Thelesstheeffortandsacrificepeoplearepreparedfor,thelesstheeconomic growth. The looser the social discipline and the more diffuse theconsensus,theweakerwillbetheperformanceandthelowertheproductivity.29

It is fundamental to the working of the democratic system that importantissues are placed before the people by all those contesting elections…Andwhoeverischosentorepresentthepeopleisexpectedtoimplementfaithfullythemandate that has been given to them. This is the essence of the democraticsystem.30

Whataretherisksofdemocracy?

Oneperson,onevoteisamostdifficultformofgovernment.Fromtimetotime,the results can be erratic. People are sometimes fickle. They get bored withstable, steady improvements in life, and in a recklessmoment, theyvote for achangeforchange’ssake.31

Solongasyourunthisoneperson,onevote,theeasiestofappealsthatcanbemadetothegroundarethesimple,emotionalones,noteconomicdevelopmentandprogressandalltheseotherthingstheydonotunderstand,butsimplethings:prideinrace,inlanguage,inreligion,inculture.32

Parliamentary democracy of one person, one vote will work only if peoplechooserationallyfromthealternativestheyareofferedinanelection.Theidealisneveroffered.Thevoterisfacedwithalimitedchoiceofalternatives.Hemustreconcilehishopesandaspirationswiththepartiesofferedhim.Thedemocraticsystembreaksdownifpeoplemakeachoicewhichisirrational,astheydidtimeaftertimeinFranceafterWWIIuntil[Charles]deGaullesweptasidetheFourthRepublic.Thesystemalsofailsifnoneofthepartiescontestingoffersarationalchoice, as in Indonesia between1949 and1959until PresidentSukarno sweptasideParliamentandinstalledhimselfas“guider”ofdemocracy.33

What are we all seeking? A form of government that will be comfortablebecauseitmeetsourneeds,isnotoppressive,andmaximizesouropportunities.Andwhetheryouhaveoneperson,onevoteorsomepeople,onevote,orotherpeople, two votes, those are forms which should be worked out. I am notintellectually convinced that one person, one vote is the best. We practice itbecausethat iswhat theBritishbequeathedus,andwehavenotreallyfoundaneed to challenge that.But I am convinced, personally, thatwewould have abettersystemifwegaveeverypersonovertheageof40whohasafamilytwovotes,becauseheorshe is likely tobemorecareful,votingalsoforhisorherchildren. He or she ismore likely to vote in a serious way than a capriciousyoungpersonunder30…Atthesametime,onceapersongetsbeyond65,thenitisaproblem.Betweentheagesof40and60isideal,andat60theyshouldgo

backtoonevote,butthatwillbedifficulttoarrange.34

Oneperson,onevote,on thebasisof theWesternparliamentarydemocraticsystem…isworkablewithin certain limitations.Youhave such things as fixedattitudes. Of what is right and what is wrong. Well, your populationautomatically responds to certain basic stimuli, but you let a free-for-all takeplace, and in every one of the newly emergent countries, they face troubleimmediately after independence is won. That is one of the problems of anemergentsociety.Authorityhasgottobeexercised.Andwhenauthorityisnotbacked by position, prestige, or usage, then it has to defend actively againstchallenge.35

Whatistheproperbalancebetweenlawandorder?

Theday[Mikhail]GorbachevsaidtothemassesinMoscow:donotbeafraidoftheKGB,Itookadeepbreath.Thismanisarealgenius,Isaid…Heissittingontopofaterrormachinethatholdsthedamnpiletogether,andhesays:donotbeafraid.Hemusthaveatremendousformulatodemocratize.UntilImethim,andIfoundhimcompletelybewilderedbywhatwashappeningaroundhim.Hehadjumpedintothedeependofthepoolwithoutlearninghowtoswim.

I understood Deng Xiaoping when he said: if 200,000 students have to beshot, shoot them, because the alternative is China in chaos for another 100years…Dengunderstood,andhereleaseditstagebystage.WithoutDeng,Chinawouldhaveimploded.36

Theruleoflawtalksofhabeascorpus,freedom,therightofassociationandexpression,ofassembly,ofpeacefuldemonstration:nowhereintheworldtodayaretheserightsallowedtobepracticedwithoutlimitations,forblindlyapplied,theseidealscanworktowardtheundoingoforganizedsociety.Fortheacidtestofanylegalsystemisnotthegreatnessorthegrandeurofitsidealconcepts,butwhether, in fact, it is able to produce order and justice in the relationshipsbetweenpersonandperson,andbetweenpersonandthestate.Tomaintainthisorderwiththebestdegreeof toleranceandhumanityisaproblem…Inasettledand established society, law appears to be a precursor of order…But the hard

realitiesofkeepingthepeacebetweenpersonandperson,andbetweenauthorityandtheindividual,canbemoreaccuratelydescribedifthephrasewereinvertedto“orderandlaw,”forwithoutorder,theoperationoflawisimpossible.Orderhaving been established, and the rules having become enforceable in a settledsociety,onlythenisitpossibletoworkouthumanrelationshipsbetweensubjectandsubject,andsubjectandthestateinaccordancewithpredeterminedrulesoflaw.Andwhenastateofincreasingdisorderanddefianceofauthoritycannotbecheckedbytherulesthenexisting…drasticruleshavetobeforgedtomaintainordersothatthelawcancontinuetogovernhumanrelations.Thealternativeistosurrenderorderforchaosandanarchy.37

All colonial territories that have gained their independence since the end ofWorld War II have equipped themselves with emergency laws…Goodgovernmentdoesnotdependupontheabsenceofthesepowers.Itdependsuponthewise,judicious,anddiscriminateuseofthembytherepresentativeselectedbyandanswerabletothepeople.38

Whatistheproperbalancebetweencompetitivenessandequality?

Tobesuccessful,societymustmaintainabalancebetweennurturingexcellenceand encouraging the average to improve. Theremust be both cooperation andcompetitionbetweenpeopleinthesamesociety.39

Ifeverybodygetsthesamerewards,astheydoundercommunismwiththeiriron rice bowl, nobody strives to excel; societywill not prosper, and progresswillbeminimal.Thatledtothecollapseofthecommunistsystem.Ontheotherhand, in a highly competitive societywherewinners get big prizes and loserspaltryones,therewillbeagreatdisparitybetweenthetopandthebottomlayersofsociety,asinAmerica…Attheendoftheday,thebasicproblemoffairnessinsocietywillneedtobesolved.Butfirst,wehavetocreatethewealth.Todothat,wemust be competitive and have a good dose of the “yang.” Ifwe have toomuchof the“yin”andover-redistribute the incomesof thesuccessful, thenwewillblunttheirdrivetoexcelandsucceed,andmaylosetoomanyofourable,whowillmove toother countrieswhere theyarenot soheavily taxed.On the

other hand, if too many at the lower end feel left out, then our society willbecomedivisive and fractious, andcohesivenesswill be lost.Communismhasfailed.ThewelfarestateofWesterndemocracieshasalsofailed.

There is a continual need to balance between a successful, competitivesociety,andacohesive,compassionateone.Thatrequiresjudgment, tostrikeabargain or social contract. Each societymust arrive at that optimum point foritself.Betweenthe twoends, thehighlycompetitiveandtheexcessivelyequal,liesagoldenmean.Thispointwillmovewithtimeandchangingvalues.40

I can best explain the need for balance between individual competition andgroup solidarity byusing themetaphor of the oriental yin andyang symbol…The more yang (male) competitiveness in society, the higher the totalperformance.Ifwinnertakesall,competitionwillbekeen,butgroupsolidaritywillbeweak.Themoreyin(female)solidarity,withrewardsevenlydistributed,thegreaterthegroupsolidarity,buttheweakerthetotalperformancebecauseofreducedcompetition…Wehavearrangedhelp,butinsuchawaythatonlythosewho have no other choicewill seek it. This is the opposite of attitudes in theWest,whereliberalsactivelyencouragepeopletodemandentitlementswithnosenseofshame,causinganexplosionofwelfarecosts.41

Inonegeneration (1965 to1990),wemade it from thirdworld to first.Thenext20yearsuntil 2010,Singaporeacquired thepoise andpolishof avibrantand lively city…To build such a Singapore, we need an exceptionally stronggovernment, with the ablest, the toughest, andmost dedicated of leaders.Weheadhuntforthem,testthemoutinheavyresponsibilities.Onlysuchleaderscankeeptheeconomygrowingandcreategoodjobsandgeneratetherevenuetopayfortheequipmentandtrainingofourthird-generationSingaporeArmedForces[SAF].This3-G[3rdgeneration]SAFprovides thesecurityandconfidenceofour people and of foreign investors, assured that we can more than defendourselves. If there is insecurity, therewillbe fewer investments.Thatmeansapoorerpeopleandinstability.Tomaintainsocialcohesion,webufferthelowest20% to 25%, the weaker achievers, from the tough competition of themarketplace…We support the lower-income workers with extra income…Allthisaimsforafairandjustsociety.42

CHAPTER9

HowLeeKuanYewThinks

What are your most fundamental strategic principles? How do you approachstrategic thinking and policymaking? What personal and professionalexperienceshaveshaped thatapproach?Whatstrategicparadigmshaveshapedthat approach? What role should history play in strategic thinking andpolicymaking? What role should clarity play in strategic thinking andpolicymaking? How has your view of why societies progress affected yourstrategic thinking? How has your view of why societies stagnate or regressaffectedyourstrategicthinking?Whatqualitiesdefineasuccessfulleader?Whatarethemostcommonpublicpolicymistakesthatleadersmake?Whichleadersdoyouadmireandwhy?Howdoyouwishtoberemembered?LeeKuanYew’sanswerstothesequestionsrevealmuchabouttheprinciplesandworldviewthathaveshapedhispoliticalchoices.

Whatareyourmostfundamentalstrategicprinciples?

Humanbeings,regrettablethoughitmaybe,areinherentlyviciousandhavetoberestrainedfromtheirviciousness.1

Wemayhaveconqueredspace,butwehavenotlearnedtoconquerourownprimevalinstinctsandemotionsthatwerenecessaryforoursurvivalintheStoneAge,notinthespaceage.2

OneofthemosttragicpersonaleventswaswhenMr.Nehrufacedtheagonyofdisillusionmentinhisbasic,fundamentalbelief.That, infact,powerpoliticsinAsiaisasoldasthefirsttribesthatemerged,andthat,whetherwelikeitornot,ifwearetosurviveandmaintainourseparateidentities,itisnecessarythatwe should learnwhat is in the joint interest at any single time of a group ofnations.3

Ihavealwaysthoughtthathumanitywasanimal-like,whileConfuciantheorysaysthatitcanbeimproved.Iamnotsureitcanbe,butitcanbetrained,itcanbedisciplined…Youcanmakealeft-handerwritewithhisorherrighthand,butyoucannotreallychangehisorhernatural-borninstinct.4

It is assumed that allmenandwomenareequalor shouldbeequal…But isequalityrealistic?Ifitisnot,toinsistonequalitymustleadtoregression.5

Oneofthefactsoflifeisthatnotwothingsareeverequal,eitherinsmallnessorinbigness.Livingthingsareneverequal.Eveninthecaseofidenticaltwins,onecomesoutbeforetheotherandtakesprecedenceovertheother.Soitiswithhumanbeings,soitiswithtribes,andsoitiswithnations.6

Humanbeingsarenotbornequal.Theyarehighlycompetitive.SystemslikeSoviet and Chinese communism have failed, because they tried to equalizebenefits.Thennobodyworkshardenough,buteveryonewants togetasmuchas,ifnotmorethan,theotherperson.7

Istartedoffbelievingallmenandwomenareequal…Inowknowthatisthemost unlikely thing ever to have been because millions of years have passedoverevolution,peoplehavescatteredacrossthefaceofthisearth,beenisolatedfromeachother,developed independently,haddifferent intermixturesbetweenraces,peoples,climates,soils…ThisissomethingwhichIhaveread,andItestedagainstmyobservations.We readmany things.The fact that it is inprint andrepeatedby three, four authorsdoesnotmake it true.Theymayallbewrong.Butthroughmyownexperience…Iconcluded:yes,thereisadifference.8

Inanygivensociety,ofthe1,000babiesborn,therearesomanypercentnear-geniuses, so many percent average, so many percent morons…It is the near-geniuses and the above-average who ultimately decide the shape of things to

come…We want an equal society. We want to give everybody equalopportunities.But,inthebackofourminds,weneverdeceiveourselvesthattwohumanbeingsareeverequalintheirstamina,intheirdrive,intheirdedication,intheirinnateability.9

Friedrich Hayek’s book The Fatal Conceit: Errors of Socialism expressedwithclarityandauthoritywhatIhadlongfeltbutwasunabletoexpress,namelythe unwisdom of powerful intellects, including Albert Einstein, when theybelievedthatapowerfulbraincandeviseabettersystemandbringaboutmore“socialjustice”thanwhathistoricalevolution,oreconomicDarwinism,hasbeenabletoworkoutoverthecenturies.10

Nosinglepower,nosinglereligion,nosingleideologycanconquertheworld,orremakeitinitsownimage.Theworldistoodiverse.Differentraces,cultures,religions, languages,andhistoriesrequiredifferentpaths todemocracyand thefree market. Societies in a globalized world—interconnected by satellite,television,Internet,andtravel—willinfluenceandaffecteachother.WhatsocialsystembestmeetstheneedsofapeopleataparticularstageintheirdevelopmentwillbesettledbysocialDarwinism.11

Howdoyouapproachstrategicthinkingandpolicymaking?

Iwould describemyself, in perhapsEuropean terms, as between socialist andconservative.Iwouldputmyselfasaliberal.Assomeonewhobelievesinequalopportunitiessothateverybodygetsanequalchancetodohisbest,andwithacertain compassion to ensure that the failures do not fall through the floor…Iwanttorunthesystemasefficientlyaspossible,butmakeallowancesforthosewhowill not be doingwell because nature did not give themenough, or theycannotmakethatextraeffort…Iamaliberalintheclassicalsenseofthatword,in that Iamnot fixatedonaparticular theoryof theworldorof society. I ampragmatic. I amprepared to lookat theproblemandsay,all right,what is thebestwaytosolveitthatwillproducethemaximumhappinessandwell-beingforthemaximumnumberofpeople?12

My upbringing in a three-generation family made me an unconscious

Confucianist. It seeps intoyou, theConfucianist belief that societyworksbestwhere everyman aims to be a gentleman.The ideal is a junzi, a gentleman…Thatmeanshedoesnotdoevil,hetriestodogood,heisloyaltohisfatherandmother, faithful to his wife, brings up his children well, treats his friendsproperly, and he is a good, loyal citizen of his emperor…The underlyingphilosophyisthatforasocietytoworkwell,youmusthavetheinterestsofthemassofthepeople,thatsocietytakespriorityovertheinterestsoftheindividual.ThisistheprimarydifferencewiththeAmericanprinciple,theprimaryrightsoftheindividual.13

When I travel…I am watching how a society, an administration, isfunctioning.Why are they good?…And the ideas come fromnot just reading.You can read about it, but it is irrelevant if you do not relate it to yourself…which I constantly do…Youmust not overlook the importance of discussionswith knowledgeable people. I would say that is much more productive thanabsorbing or running through masses of documents. Because in a shortexchange, you can abstract from somebodywho has immense knowledge andexperiencetheessenceofwhathehadgained.14

It is not by accident thatwe got here.Every possible thing that could havegonewrong,wetriedtopreempt.Thatishowwegothere,thatiswhywehavesubstantialreserves.Becauseifwedonothavereserves,themomentwerunintotrouble…wehavegotnothing.Allwehave is this functioningorganismwhichrequires brains, specialized skills put together in a very intricate form, withinputsfrommanynationsandtheirexpertsinfinancialservices,manufacturing,tourism,allsortsofeconomicactivitiesputtogether.Itisnoteasytoreplicate.IconsiderthistobethebestcontributionIcanmake,themostworthwhilethingtodo.15

Whatpersonalandprofessionalexperienceshaveshapedthatapproach?

My thinking comes frommy character…I also havemy life experiences.Onemeets a series of unforeseeable and unpredictable situationswhen yourwholeworld collapses. Anyway,mine did. TheBritish Empirewas supposed to last

another 1,000 years in SoutheastAsia, but collapsedwhen the Japanese armycamein1942.IneverthoughttheycouldconquerSingaporeandpushtheBritishout. They did, and brutalized us, including me…I learned about power longbefore Mao Zedong wrote that power came from the barrel of the gun. TheJapanese demonstrated this; the British did not. They were at the tail end ofempirewhentheydidnothavetousebruteforce.TheBritishhadsuperiorityintechnology,commerce,andknowledge.TheybuiltthisbiggovernmenthouseonahillwithIndianconvictlaborin1868todominatethepopulations…Ilearnedhow togovern, howyoudominate thepeople, as theBritishdid, andhow theJapaneseusedtheirpower.16

TheJapaneseinvasionofSingaporewasthesinglebiggestpoliticaleducationofmylifebecause,forthreeandahalfyears,Isawthemeaningofpowerandhow power and politics and governmentwent together, and I also understoodhowpeopletrappedinapowersituationrespondedbecausetheyhadtolive.Oneday, the British were there, immovable, complete masters; next day, theJapanese, whom we had derided, mocked as short, stunted people withshortsightedsquinteyes.17

WhenmyseniorCabinetcolleaguesandIlookbackatourearlyhecticyearsofgoverningSingapore,we realizehowmuchwehavebenefited fromhavinggone through a very hard school. We met street thugs. Had we not becomestreetwise,wewould have been clobbered. Like dogswhich are closeted in abungalow behind fences, we would have been run over when exposed totreacheroustraffic…AwholegenerationofSingaporeans,nowallover40yearsold,waseducatedinaharshpoliticalschool…Ourchildrenhavenomemoriesoftroubledtimesfromrecklessopposition.Ayoungergenerationofministersalsomissed this experience.Fiercecombatmade theolderministerswhat theyare.Those amongst uswhowereweak, slow, or nervous became early casualties.ThosepresentarethesurvivorsofaDarwinianprocessofnaturalselection.Wehavekeensurvivalinstincts.18

What have I learned since 1973? Some more basic unchangeables abouthumanbeingsandhumansocieties, theways inwhichtheycanbemadetodobetter, and the ever-present danger of regression and even collapse…I realizehow very fragile a civilized society is…I have also come to understand the

insignificanceofpersonalachievements.Forat60,morethanat50,comestherealization of the transient nature of all earthly glories and successes, and theephemeralqualityofsensoryjoysandpleasures,whencomparedtointellectual,moral, or spiritual satisfactions…I havewondered howmuch ofwhat I am isnatureandhowmuchwasnurture?WouldIhavebeenadifferentpersonifIhadnot been tempered through the crucible of struggle?…Having taken lifeand-deathdecisionsandgonethroughoneacutecrisisafteranother,myperspectives,ambitions, and priorities have undergone a fundamental and, I believe,permanent,transformation.Imaynothavechangedinmyphysical,mental,andemotionalmake-up, thehardware side.But the software side,my responses toGod, glory, or gold, has been conditionedbymy experiences. In otherwords,however capacious the hardware (nature), without the software (nurture), notmuchcanbemadeofthehardware.19

Whatstrategicparadigmshaveshapedthatapproach?

The final corroboration of logic and reasoning comes when they becomepracticalrealities.20

Theacidtestisinperformance,notpromises.ThemillionsofdispossessedinAsiacarenotandknownotoftheory.Theywantabetterlife.Theywantamoreequal,justsociety.21

Goodsenseandgoodeconomics require thatwemustalways findpractical,notdoctrinaire,solutionstoourproblemsofgrowthanddevelopment.22

Mylife isnotguidedbyphilosophyor theories. Iget thingsdoneand leaveotherstoextracttheprinciplesfrommysuccessfulsolutions.Idonotworkonatheory.Instead,Iask:whatwillmakethiswork?If,afteraseriesofsolutions,Ifindthatacertainapproachworked,thenItrytofindoutwhatwastheprinciplebehind the solution.SoPlato,Aristotle,Socrates, I amnotguidedby them…Iaminterestedinwhatworks…Presentedwiththedifficultyormajorproblemoran assortment of conflicting facts, I review what alternatives I have if myproposed solution does not work. I choose a solution which offers a higherprobabilityofsuccess,butifitfails,Ihavesomeotherway.Neveradeadend.23

Wewerenotideologues.Wedidnotbelieveintheoriesassuch.Atheoryisan attractive proposition intellectually.What we faced was a real problem ofhumanbeingslookingforwork,tobepaid,tobuytheirfood,theirclothes,theirhomes,and tobring theirchildrenup…Ihad read the theoriesandmaybehalfbelievedinthem.Butweweresufficientlypracticalandpragmaticenoughnottobeclutteredupandinhibitedbytheories.Ifathingworks,letusworkit,andthateventuallyevolvedintothekindofeconomythatwehavetoday.Ourtestwas:doesitwork?Doesitbringbenefitstothepeople?…Theprevailingtheorythenwasthatmultinationalswereexploitersofcheaplaborandcheaprawmaterialsandwouldsuckacountrydry…Nobodyelsewantedtoexploitthelabor.Sowhynot, if they want to exploit our labor? They are welcome to it…We werelearning how to do a job from them,whichwewould never have learnt…Wewerepartoftheprocessthatdisprovedthetheoryofthedevelopmenteconomicsschool,thatthiswasexploitation.Wewereinnopositiontobefussyabouthig-hmindedprinciples.24

KimDae-jungwroteinForeignAffairsthat“democracyisourdestiny.”Theygothimtowriteacounterarticle tomyconversationwithFareedZakaria,andthey want me to reply. I do not think it is necessary. He makes assertivestatements. Where are the concrete examples that these things are going tohappen? If it isgoing tohappen,whyare they soexcitedabout it?…Theveryfactthattheyaresovexedaboutitandtrytodemolishmeshowsalackoffaithin the inevitable outcome they predict…If history is on their side, that liberaldemocracyisinevitable,thenjustignoreme.Donotgivemepublicity.Right?Idonotbelievethatbecausea theorysoundsgood, looks logicalonpaper,or ispresented logically, therefore that is theway itwillworkout.The final test islife.Whathappensinreallife,whathappenswithpeopleworkinginasociety.25

IdonotbelievetheAmericansystemiseitherdesirableoraffordable.Inoticethe British are trying to copy the Americans…Because American officialsreleasesecrets,thatissupposedtobethe“in”thing.Itshowsthatyoursisafreesocietywhere if anyministers or courts suppress the truth, you feel it is yourdutytoleakittotheopposition.Thatissomethingnew,anditisnotproven.Sowhenyoutamperaroundwiththefundamentalsofsociety…theeffectsareinthenext, andoftenafter thenext,generation…Perhapsbecause Iamconservative,

becauseone isaproventestedsystem, theother isnotproven,whynot let theotherchapproveitfirst?If…allthecontentiousnessleadstoagreatflourishingofscientificandtechnologicaldiscoveriesand…greathappinessandabsenceofreal social problems, itwouldbe stupidnot to look into thosepossibilities forourselves…Thefinalproofiswhathappenstothesociety.26

Whatroleshouldhistoryplayinstrategicthinkingandpolicymaking?

Historydoesnotrepeatitselfinthesamewayeachtime,butcertaintrendsandconsequencesareconstants.Ifyoudonotknowhistory,youthinkshortterm.Ifyouknowhistory,youthinkmediumandlongterm.27

Tounderstandthepresentandanticipatethefuture,onemustknowenoughofthepast,enoughtohaveasenseofthehistoryofapeople.Onemustappreciatenotmerelywhattookplace,but,moreespecially,whyittookplaceandinthatparticular way. This is true of individuals, as it is for nations. The personalexperience of a person determines whether he likes or hates certain things,welcomes them or fears themwhen they recur. So it iswith nations: it is thecollectivememoryofapeople, thecomposite learning frompasteventswhichled to successesordisasters thatmakesapeoplewelcomeor fearnewevents,because they recognize parts in new events which have similarities with pastexperience.Youngpeoplelearnbestfrompersonalexperience.Thelessonstheireldershave learnedatgreatpainandexpensecanadd to theknowledgeof theyoung and help them to cope with problems and dangers they had not facedbefore;butsuchlearning,secondhand,isneverasvivid,asdeep,orasdurableasthatwhichwaspersonallyexperienced.28

During the VietnamWar, the Americans found that their lack of historicaldepthofunderstandingofthepeopleandthecountrywasaseriousdisadvantage.American universities like Yale, Cornell, Stanford, and think tanks like theRAND Corporation quickly assembled top minds in cognate disciplines todevelop this expertise. Had they done this before they were drawn into theVietnam War, they might well have chosen not to draw the battle line inVietnam,butinCambodia.29

Whatroleshouldclarityplayinstrategicthinkingandpolicymaking?

WhatIwanttodiscussistheimportanceofsimple,clear,writtenEnglish.Thisisnotsimple…ArthurKoestlerrightlypointedout that ifHitler’sspeecheshadbeenwritten, not spoken, theGermanswouldnever havegone towar…Whenyousendmeorsendyourministeraminuteoramemo,oradraftthathastobepublished like the president’s address, do not try to impress by big words.Impressbytheclarityofyourideas…Ispeakasapractitioner.IfIhadnotbeenable to reduce complex ideas into simple words and project them vividly formassunderstanding,Iwouldnotbeheretoday.30

Many of my propositions may be controversial, but where it is a choicebetween platitudes and personal convictions, I feel it is my duty to state myconvictions vigorously, for one great obstacle to a rapid and orderly politicaldevelopment of Malaya has been, and still is, the Malayan habit of ignoringunpalatablefactsandavoidingunpleasantcontroversy.31

Only those count and matter who have the strength and courage of theirconvictionstostickupandstandupforwhattheybelievein,fortheirpeople,fortheircountry,regardlessofwhathappenstothem.32

Howhasyourviewofwhysocietiesprogressaffectedyourstrategicthinking?

Civilizations emerge because human societies in a given condition respond tothe challenge. Where the challenge is just about right…the human beingflourishes.33

There are three basic essentials for [the] successful transformation of anysociety. First, a determined leadership…two, an administration which isefficient;andthree,socialdiscipline.34

You have got to believe in something. You are not just building houses inorder that people canprocreate and fill these houses up…Youdo these thingsbecauseyoubelievethat,intheend,youwillcreateahappyandhealthynation,

asociety inwhichpeople find fulfillment…Ifyou treathumanbeings just likeanimals,youjustfeedthem,keepthemsleek,well-exercised,healthylikedogsorcats,Idonotthinkthatitwillwork.Nationshavegonethroughtremendousprivationsandhardshipsinorder toachievespecificgoalswhichhaveinspiredandfiredtheirimagination.35

Oneofthereasonswhyaprivilegedsocietybasedontheprivilegeofpropertyand rankmust giveway to a societywhere people are rewarded according totheir ability and their contribution to society is that it isonlywhenpeople areencouragedtogive theirbest thatsocietyprogresses.Nosocietyhasexisted inhistorywhereallpeoplewereequalandobtainedequalrewards.Ifthatweretobe practiced, and the lazy and the incompetent were paid as much as theindustriousandtheintelligent,itwouldendupbyallthegoodpeoplegivingaslittleof themselvessoasnot togivemore thantheirweakerbrethren.But it ispossibletocreateasocietyinwhicheverybodyisgivennotequalrewards,butequal opportunities, and where rewards vary not in accordance with theownership of property, but with the worth of a person’s contribution to thatsociety.Inotherwords,societyshouldmakeitworthpeople’swhiletogivetheirbesttothecountry.Thisisthewaytoprogress.36

Ididnotunderstandwhatacossetedlifewoulddotothespiritofenterpriseofapeople,diminishingtheirdesiretoachieveandsucceed.Ibelievedthatwealthcame naturally fromwheat growing in the fields, orchards bearing fruit everysummer,andfactoriesturningoutallthatwasneededtomaintainacomfortablelife.Onlytwodecadeslater,whenIhadtomakeanoutdatedentrepôteconomyfeedapeople,didIrealizeweneededtocreatethewealthbeforewecanshareit.And to create wealth, high motivation and incentives are crucial to drive apeopletoachieve,totakerisksforprofit,ortherewillbenothingtoshare.37

Youmustwant.Thatisthecrucialthing.Beforeyouhave,youmustwanttohave.And towant to havemeans to be able, first, to perceivewhat it is youwant;secondly,howtodisciplineandorganizeyourself inordertopossessthethings you want—the industrial sinews of our modern economic base; andthirdly, thegritandthestamina,whichmeansculturalmutations in thewayoflifeinlargepartsofthetropicalareasoftheworldwherethehumanbeinghasneverfounditnecessarytoworkinthesummer,harvestbeforeautumn,andsave

upforthewinter.Inlargeareasoftheworld,aculturalpatternisdetermined…As longas thatpersists,nothingwill everemerge.And for it to emerge, theremustbethisdesirebetweencontendingfactionsofthe“have”nationstotryandmoldthe“have-not”nationsaftertheirownselves.38

Let me put in a positive way what we want. First, a striving, acquisitivecommunity. You cannot have people just striving for a nebulous ideal. Theymust have that desire to improve…Youmust equate rewards to performance,becausenotwopersonswanttobethesame.Theywantequalchancesinorderthat they can show how one is better than the other…Next, we wantforwardlooking good management. The old family business is one of theproblems in Singapore…And third, easy social mobility. One of the reasonscontributingtoJapaneseandGermanrecoverywasthattheirdefeatedcapitalists,managers, executives, engineers, and workers…were fired by a singleness ofpurpose:toputtheircountrybackonitsfeet.39

Tooptimize our opportunities,wemust retain the vigor of ourmulti-racial-lingual-cultural-religious society.Wehave theadvantageof allbeingeducatedinEnglishinanagewhenEnglishisthecommonlanguageoftheworldandtheInternet. However, we must not lose our basic strengths, the vitality of ouroriginal cultures and languages…Realism and pragmatism are necessary toovercomenewproblems.Only thosebasics thathaveprovedsound in thepastshouldnotbechangedunlessabsolutelynecessary.Amongst themarehonestyandintegrity,multi-racialism,equalityofopportunities,meritocracy,fairnessinrewardsinaccordancewithone’scontributiontosociety,avoidanceofthebuffetsyndromewhere, for a fixed price, you can take or eat asmuch as youwant.That is why welfare and subsidies destroy the motivation to perform andsucceed.40

In an established national society, one of the fundamental qualifications forjoiningthatnationalsocietyisanadequateknowledgeoftheunifyinglanguageofthatsociety.ItwasthislanguagequalificationthatensuredfortheAmericansthatbasicunifyingforce.Racially, theimmigrantsstartedasGermans,Italians,Spaniards,andevenJapanese.ButthefactthattheAmericanstateinsistedonanadequate command of the American version of English before accepting theimmigrants as citizens of the state ensured the unifying force of one common

languageinthepeople.41

Why didChina’s technological advance slow down and halt, justwhen theRenaissance was beginning in Europe? China’s stagnation was caused by itsarroganceandcomplacency.ItrefusedtolearnfromtheWest.WhentheBritishemissary Lord Macartney arrived in Beijing in 1793, bringing with him themarvelsoftheindustrialrevolution,theEmperorQianLongwasnotimpressed.ThegreatemperortoldtheEnglishnobleman,“Thereisnothingwelacknordowe need any of your country’s manufactures.” The price China paid for thisarrogancewas200yearsofdeclineanddecay,whileEuropeandAmericaforgedahead. Two hundred years later, another Chinese leader, more thoughtful andpractical, set out to undo the damage.DengXiaopingopenedupChina to theworldin1978.42

TheIsraelisareverysmart.IaskedaBankofAmericapresident…whyaretheJews so smart?…He emphasized how the good genesmultiplied. He said therabbi in any Jewish societywasoften themost intelligent andwell-read,mostlearned of all because he has got to know Hebrew, he has got to know theTalmud,hehasgottoknowvariouslanguagesandsoon.Sotherabbi’schildrenare much sought-after by successful Jews to bring the good genes into thefamily.Thatishowtheymultiply,thebrightonesmultiply.Thatsumsitup.43

Howhasyourviewofwhysocietiesstagnateorregressaffectedyourstrategicthinking?

BritaindidnothavethecriticalmassnumbersofpeopleandsizeofcountrytoremainamongthefirstrankofnationswithAmericaandtheSovietUnion.ButitwasnotinevitablethattheenterpriseandthedriveofBritonstoachievewouldbehobbledbywelfarism,introducedin1945withthenoblestofmotivesbytheBritish Labor Party. Cradle-to-grave welfarism blunted the ambition of manybuddingentrepreneurs.Worse,highpersonaltaxesdampenedthedesireofmanytoachievewealthandsuccess.44

The British used to make the great discoveries—steam engines, textilemachines, and electric motors. They won many Nobel Prizes for science.

However, they did not commercialize their discoveries…Why this lack ofcapacity to commercialize their innovations? I believe it is because of theirculture.Longyearsofempireovertwocenturiesdevelopedasocietywhereoldwealth and the landed gentry were held in high esteem. The new rich wereregardedwithsomedisdain.Thebrightaspiredtobesuccessfulandadmiredfortheirintellectualskillsaslawyers,doctors,professionals,peoplewhousedtheirbrainsandkeptcleanhands,notlikeengineersorpeoplewhoworkedhardandhadtodirtytheirhands…Thenewrichwerenotembracedintheupperreachesofsociety.Onlytheirchildrencouldaspiretobewelcomedaftergoingthroughthenecessarypublicschoolsanduniversities,andtheirnewwealthhadmaturedandbecomeoldwealth…Circumstancesandculturedecidehowentrepreneurialapeopleorasub-groupofthembecomes…ThesearethefoursalientfeaturesofAmerica’s entrepreneurial culture: (1) a national emphasis on personalindependenceandself-reliance,(2)respectforthosestartingnewbusinesses,(3)acceptanceoffailureinentrepreneurialandinnovationefforts,and(4)toleranceforahighdegreeofincomedisparity.45

Whatqualitiesdefineasuccessfulleader?

Revolutionarysituationsthrowupgreat leaderswhodemandblood,sweat,andtears; comfortable circumstancesproduce leaderswhopromisepeople an eveneasierlife.46

Frommyempiricalobservationofpeopleandleaders,Ibelieve70–80%ofaperson’s capability, proclivities, temperament is genetic. The day you areconceived,atleast70%hasalreadybeenfixedinthewomb.Ifyouareboundtobeacapableperson,youwillgrowintoacapableperson.Ifyouareboundtobeslow,youwillbeslow.Nothingcanchangethat…Idonotbelieve,contrarytowhatAmericanbookssay, thatyoucanteachpeople tobeleaders. I thinkyouare a born leader or you are not a leader. You can teach a person to be amanager,butnotaleader.Theymusthavetheextradrive,intellectualverve,anextratenacity,andthewilltoovercome.47

It isavery tough job,especially inpolitical leadership.BeingaCEOor the

generalofanarmyisdifferent.Youdonothavetopersuadepeoplewhocansay“boo”toyoutogetthemonyourside.Whencampaigning,noonehastolistentoyouatall.Andwhen thecampaign isover,peoplehave tobelieve thatyouhavegotsomethingforthemthatyoucandothatwillmakethemcasttheirvotefor you. It requires a totally different set of skills. Those skills can only bedevelopedifyouhaveanaturalurge,anaturalinterestinpeople,inwantingtodosomethingforthem,whichtheycansenseandfeel.Ifyouhavenotgotthatandyoujustwanttobeagreatleader,trysomeotherprofession.48

Ihavespent40yearstryingtoselectpeopleforbigjobs…Ihavegonethroughmanysystems,spokentomanyCEOs…IdecidedthatShellhadthebestsystemofthemall,andthegovernmentswitchedfrom40attributestothree,whichtheycalled“helicopterqualities”…Whatare they?Powersofanalysis; logicalgraspof the facts; concentration on the basic points, extracting the principles. Youscorehighmarksinmathematics,youhavegotit.Butthatisnotenough…Theymusthaveasenseofrealityofwhatispossible.Butifyouarejustrealistic,youbecomepedestrian,plebeian,youwillfail.Therefore,youmustbeabletosoarabovetherealityandsay,“Thisisalsopossible”—asenseofimagination.49

Unlessyouwantlongperiodsofanarchyandchaos,youhavetocreateaself-continuingpowerstructure.Humanbeingsshouldbeequal.Buttheyneverare.Somecandomore;somecangivemoreofthemselvesthanothers.Howdoweanticipatethat?Whyisitthatoftenwecannot?…Theproblemisthatthehumanbeing isunableyet to assess this thingcalled “character.”…It is amazinghowmanyhighly intelligentpersons in theworldmakenocontributionatall to thewell-beingoftheirfellowpeople.Anditisthisasyetunascertainableor,rather,as yet unmeasurable, quality called “character,” which, plus your mentalcapacity or knowledge or discipline,makes for leadership…In the establishedsocieties…all their leadershipcomesfromabroadstratumofpeoplewhohavegone to universities. It is so much better if…a person also goes through asystematic courseofdiscipline, learns all thebasicnorms,whathistoryhas toofferandhumanexperiencehastooffer,andthentakesoverthatleadership.50

Whatarethemostcommonpublicpolicymistakesthatleadersmake?

Sometimes they succumb to hubris and overconfidence, and other times theymissatransformativeopportunitywhenitarrives.51

Whichleadersdoyouadmireandwhy?

De Gaulle, Deng Xiaoping, Winston Churchill. De Gaulle because he hadtremendousguts.Hiscountrywasoccupied.Hewasaone-stargeneral,andherepresented France…When the British and the Americans recaptured NorthAfrica, hewent toAlgeria andAlgiers, and he saw a French general there, afour-star general. He said, “Giraud, you are a general of France.What is theAmerican soldier doing outside protecting you?”Hewas a very toughmindedfellow…Hehadgutsandgumption.DengwasagreatmanbecausehechangedChinafromabroken-backedstate,whichwouldhave imploded like theSovietUnion, into what it is today, on the way to becoming the world’s largesteconomy. Churchill, because any other person would have given up. But hesaid…“We will fight on the beaches. We will fight in the fields and in thestreets. We will never surrender.” To say that when your troops have beendefeated…requiredanenormousamountofwillandverveanddeterminationnottoyieldtotheGermans…IfyouasktheAmericanswhotheyadmire,theywillsayRoosevelt.ButRoosevelthadpowerandtheindustrialmightofAmerica.52

OfallmyCabinetcolleagues,itwasGohKengSweewhomadethegreatestdifferencetotheoutcomeforSingapore.Hehadacapaciousmindandastrongcharacter.Whenheheldacontraryview,hewouldchallengemydecisionsandmakeme reexamine the premises on which they were made. As a result, wereachedbetterdecisionsforSingapore.Inthemiddleofacrisis,hisanalysiswasalways sharp,with an academicdetachment andobjectivity that reassuredme.His robustapproach toproblemsencouragedme topressonagainstseeminglyimpossibleodds…Hewasmytroubleshooter.Isettledthepoliticalconditionssothathistoughpolicieswetogetherformulatedcouldbeexecuted…Hemastereddefense matters, read up the classics on strategy, Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, andLiddellHart.He subscribed tomilitary journals to know the latest inmilitaryweaponry.Hesentmebooksandarticles,sidelinedandflagged,insistingthatImustknowenoughtodecidewhatIhadtoapprove.53

Howdoyouwishtoberemembered?

I do notwant to be remembered as a statesman. First of all, I do not classifymyselfasastatesman.Iputmyselfdownasdetermined,consistent,persistent.Iset out to do something. I keep on chasing it until it succeeds. That is all…Anybodywhothinksheisastatesmanneedstoseeapsychiatrist.54

I do not think I can decide how I will be remembered. I live my life inaccordance towhat I think isworth doing. I neverwanted to be in politics. Iwantedtobealawyerandmakeagoodliving,tobeagoodadvocate,butIwasthrownintoitasaresultofall thesepoliticalearthquakesthat tookplace.SoIwassaddledwiththeresponsibility,andIjusthavetoberesponsibletogettheplacegoing…AllIcandoistomakesurethatwhenIleave,theinstitutionsaregood, sound, clean, efficient, and there is agovernment inplacewhichknowswhatithasgottodoandislookingforasuccessivegovernmentofquality.55

IamnotsayingthateverythingIdidwasright,buteverythingIdidwasforanhonorable purpose. I had to do some nasty things, locking fellows upwithouttrial.Closethecoffin,thendecide.Thenyouassessme.Imaystilldosomethingfoolishbeforethelidisclosedonme.56

CHAPTER10

Conclusion

As Washington policymakers, foreign policy experts, business leaders, andinformed citizens finish reading this brief volume, we are confident that theywilldosowithaclearervisionofthecomplexitiesandchallengesthatAmericawillfaceinthenextdecadeandbeyond.Asthetitleof thebooksuggests,LeeKuanYewhasgiventhenextpresidentandtherestofusareliablecompasswithwhich to navigate that world. Here, we conclude with a few of the strategicinsights that we find most instructive from this quiet, articulate, supremelyconfident,yetremarkablymodestmanfromwhomwehavelearnedsomuch.

1.ItisChina’sintentiontobethegreatestpowerintheworld.ThepoliciesofallgovernmentstowardChina,especiallyneighboringcountries,havealreadytakenthisintoaccount.ThesegovernmentsarerepositioningthemselvesbecausetheyknowthattherewillbeconsequencesiftheythwartChinawhenitscoreinterestsareatstake.Chinacanimposeeconomicsanctionssimplybydenyingaccesstoitsmarketof1.3billionpeople,whoseincomesandpurchasingpowerareincreasing.

2.ThewaysinwhichChinesesuperioritywillbeexpressedwillundoubtedlybequitedifferentthanintheearlierera.TakethecurrentcaseofEastAsia,wheretheyhave,obviously,establishedadominanteconomicpositioninrelationswiththeirneighbors,andusedthatpositionincludingaccesstoamarketof1.3billionpeopleandsignificantinvestmentsinothercountriestotheiradvantage.IfstatesorenterprisesdonotacceptChina’spositionandpayappropriatedeference,theyarefacedwiththethreatofbeingshutoutofarapidlygrowingmarketwith1.3billionpeople.

1.3billionpeople.

3.Straight-lineextrapolationsfromsucharemarkablerecordarenotrealistic.Chinahasmorehandicapsgoingforwardandmoreobstaclestoovercomethanmostobserversrecognize.Chiefamongthesearetheirproblemsofgovernance:theabsenceoftheruleoflaw,whichintoday’sChinaisclosertotheruleoftheemperor;ahugecountryinwhichlittleemperorsacrossavastexpanseexercisegreatlocalinfluence;culturalhabitsthatlimitimaginationandcreativity,rewardingconformity;alanguagethatshapesthinkingthroughepigramsand4,000yearsoftextsthatsuggesteverythingworthsayinghasalreadybeensaid,andsaidbetterbyearlierwriters;alanguagethatisexceedinglydifficultforforeignerstolearnsufficientlytoembraceChinaandbeembracedbyitssociety;andsevereconstraintsonitsabilitytoattractandassimilatetalentfromothersocietiesintheworld.

4.He[XiJinping,thelikelyincomingpresidentofChina]isreserved—notinthesensethathewillnottalktoyou,butinthesensethathewillnotbetrayhislikesanddislikes.Thereisalwaysapleasantsmileonhisface,whetherornotyouhavesaidsomethingthatannoyedhim.Hehasironinhissoul,morethanHuJintao,whoascendedtherankswithoutexperiencingthetrialsandtribulationsthatXiendured.

5.Chinaisnotgoingtobecomealiberaldemocracy;ifitdid,itwouldcollapse.Ofthat,Iamquitesure,andtheChineseintelligentsiaalsounderstandsthat.IfyoubelievethatthereisgoingtobearevolutionofsomesortinChinafordemocracy,youarewrong.WherearethestudentsofTiananmennow?Theyareirrelevant.

6.IunderstoodDengXiaopingwhenhesaid:if200,000studentshavetobeshot,shootthem,becausethealternativeisChinainchaosforanother100years…Dengunderstood,andhereleaseditstagebystage.WithoutDeng,Chinawouldhaveimploded.

7.TheU.S.isgoingthroughabumpypatchwithitsdebtanddeficits,butIhavenodoubtthatAmericawillnotbereducedtosecond-ratestatus.Historically,theU.S.hasdemonstratedagreatcapacityforrenewalandrevival.America’sstrengthsincludenogroovedthinking,butrather,anabilitytorangewidely,imaginatively,andpragmatically;adiversityof

abilitytorangewidely,imaginatively,andpragmatically;adiversityofcentersofexcellencethatcompeteininventingandembracingnewideasandnewtechnologies;asocietythatattractstalentfromaroundtheworldandassimilatesthemcomfortablyasAmericans;andalanguagethatistheequivalentofanopensystemthatisclearlythelinguafrancaoftheleadersinscience,technology,invention,business,education,diplomacy,andthosewhorisetothetopoftheirownsocietiesaroundtheworld.

8.Presidentsdonotgetreelectediftheygiveaharddoseofmedicinetotheirpeople.So,thereisatendencytoprocrastinate,topostponeunpopularpoliciesinordertowinelections.Soproblemssuchasbudgetdeficits,debt,andhighunemploymenthavebeencarriedforwardfromoneadministrationtothenext.

9.ThebaitingofChinabyAmericanhumanrightsgroups,andthethreateningoflossofmost-favored-nationstatusandothersanctionsbytheU.S.Congressandadministrationforviolationsofhumanrightsandmissiletechnologytransfers…ignoredifferencesofculture,values,andhistory,andsubordinatethestrategicconsiderationsofChina-U.S.relationstoanAmericandomesticagenda.SuchahaphazardapproachrisksturningChinaintoalong-termadversaryoftheU.S.LesssensitivityandmoreunderstandingoftheculturalrealitiesofChinacanmakeforalessconfrontationalrelationship.

10.AmericansseemtothinkthatAsiaislikeamovieandthatyoucanfreezedevelopmentsoutherewhenevertheU.S.becomesintenselyinvolvedelsewhereintheworld.Itdoesnotworklikethat.IftheUnitedStateswantstosubstantiallyaffectthestrategicevolutionofAsia,itcannotcomeandgo.

11.Indiahaswasteddecadesinstateplanningandcontrolsthathaveboggeditdowninbureaucracyandcorruption.AdecentralizedsystemwouldhaveallowedmorecenterslikeBangaloreandBombaytogrowandprosper…Thecastesystemhasbeentheenemyofmeritocracy…Indiaisanationofunfulfilledgreatness.Itspotentialhaslainfallow,underused.

12.TherearelimitationsintheIndianconstitutionalsystemandthe

12.TherearelimitationsintheIndianconstitutionalsystemandtheIndianpoliticalsystemthatpreventitfromgoingathighspeed…Whateverthepoliticalleadershipmaywanttodo,itmustgothroughaverycomplexsystematthecenter,andthenevenamorecomplexsysteminthevariousstates…Indianswillgoatatempowhichisdecidedbytheirconstitution,bytheirethnicmix,bytheirvotingpatterns,andtheresultingcoalitiongovernments,whichmakesforverydifficultdecision-making.

13.Islamhasnotbeenaproblem.However,contemporaryradicalIslam,orIslamism,isaproblem.OilwithoutIslamismcanbeaproblem,butIslamismplusoilbecomesavolatilemix.Islamismplusoilplusweaponsofmassdestructionequalsathreat…Anuclear-capableIranwillsignificantlyalterthegeopoliticalbalance…AconflictintheMiddleEastoverthebombthatIranisdeveloping…wouldhaveacatastrophicimpactonmarkets.Iran’snuclearprogramisthechallengethattheworldismostlikelytobungle…IfIrangetsthebomb,SaudiArabiawillbuythebombfromPakistan,theEgyptianswillbuythebombfromsomeone,andthenyouhaveanuclearizedMiddleEast.Thenitisonlyamatteroftimebeforethereisanuclearexplosionintheregion.

14.Theday[Mikhail]GorbachevsaidtothemassesinMoscow:donotbeafraidoftheKGB,Itookadeepbreath.Thismanisarealgenius,Isaid…Heissittingontopofaterrormachinethatholdsthedamnpiletogether,andhesays:donotbeafraid.Hemusthaveatremendousformulatodemocratize.UntilImethim,andIfoundhimcompletelybewilderedbywhatwashappeningaroundhim.Hehadjumpedintothedeependofthepoolwithoutlearninghowtoswim.

15.TheRussianpopulationisdeclining.Itisnotclearwhy,butalcoholismplaysarole;sodopessimism,adecliningfertilityrate,andadeclininglifeexpectancy…SiberiaandVladivostokarefillingupwithmoreandmoreChinese.ThelandsonthebendoftheAmurRiverwillberepopulatedbyChinese.Russiansmaysuddenlydecidethatthefutureisworthlivingandbringmorechildrenintotheworldtoreversethisdemographictrend,butIdonotseethatshiftoccurringinthenearfuture.

16.Therearenohistoricalprecedentsonhowtomaintainpeaceand

16.Therearenohistoricalprecedentsonhowtomaintainpeaceandstabilityandtoensurecooperationinaworldof160nationstates.Andtheageofinstantcommunicationsandswifttransportation,withtechnologygrowingexponentially,makesthisproblemverycomplex.Inoneinterdependent,interrelatedworld,thedeclineintherelativedominanceoftheleadersofthetwoblocsincreasesthelikelihoodofamultipolarworld,andwithitthedifficultiesofmultilateralcooperation.

17.Thereisnoviablealternativetoglobalintegration.Protectionismdisguisedasregionalismwillsoonerorlaterleadtoconflictsandwarsbetweentheregionalblocsastheycompeteforadvantageinnon-blocareas,liketheoilcountriesoftheGulf.Globalismistheonlyanswerthatisfair,acceptable,andwillupholdworldpeace.

18.They[theBRICs]aredifferentcountriesondifferentcontinentsthathappentobegrowingfasterthanothercombinationsofcountriesonthosecontinents,sosomebodysaid:whynotbringthemalltogetherandmakethemintoaglobalforce?…TheChineseandIndiansdonotsharethesamedreams.

19.Westernershaveabandonedanethicalbasisforsociety,believingthatallproblemsaresolvablebyagoodgovernment…IntheWest,especiallyafterWorldWarII,thegovernmentcametobeseenassosuccessfulthatitcouldfulfillalltheobligationsthatinlessmodernsocietiesarefulfilledbythefamily…IntheEast,westartwithself-reliance.IntheWesttoday,itistheopposite.ThegovernmentsaysgivemeapopularmandateandIwillsolveallsociety’sproblems.

20.Inanygivensociety,ofthe1,000babiesborn,therearesomanypercentnear-geniuses,somanypercentaverage,somanypercentmorons…Itisthenear-geniusesandtheabove-averagewhoultimatelydecidetheshapeofthingstocome…Wewantanequalsociety.Wewanttogiveeverybodyequalopportunities.But,inthebackofourminds,weneverdeceiveourselvesthattwohumanbeingsareeverequalintheirstamina,intheirdrive,intheirdedication,intheirinnateability.

21.Idonotwanttoberememberedasastatesman.Firstofall,Idonotclassifymyselfasastatesman.Iputmyselfdownasdetermined,

consistent,persistent.Isetouttodosomething.Ikeeponchasingituntilitsucceeds.Thatisall…Anybodywhothinksheisastatesmanneedstoseeapsychiatrist.

Notes

CHAPTER1

1.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,May11,2011.

2.LeeKuanYew,“China:AnEconomicGiant?”speechgivenattheFortuneGlobalForum,Shanghai,

September29,1999.

3.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithArnauddeBorchgrave,UnitedPressInternational,February8,2008.

4.LeeKuanYew,“China’sGrowingMightandtheConsequences,”Forbes,March28,2011.

5.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheU.S.-ASEANBusinessCouncil’s25thAnniversaryGalaDinner,

Washington,D.C.,October27,2009.

6.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,May11,2011.

7.EdwardCody,“ChinaNotaU.S.Rival,BeijingOfficialSays;OppositionExpressedtoPowerPoliticsin

Asia,”WashingtonPost,January18,1997.

8.LeeKuanYew,“AsiaandtheWorldinthe21stCentury,”speechgivenatthe21stCenturyForum,

Beijing,September4,1996.

9.HanFookKwang,ZuraidahIbrahim,ChuaMuiHoong,LydiaLim,IgnatiusLow,RachelLin,andRobin

Chan,LeeKuanYew:HardTruthstoKeepSingaporeGoing(Singapore:StraitsTimes,2011),p.331.

10.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheU.S.-ASEANBusinessCouncil’s25thAnniversaryGalaDinner.

11.DeputySecretarySteinberg’sMay30,2009,conversationwithSingaporeMinisterMentorLeeKuan

Yew,classifiedcablefromDanielL.Shields,formerU.S.deputychiefofmissiontotheSingapore

Embassy,June4,2009.

12.LeeKuanYew,“It’sStupidtoBeAfraid,”interviewwithDerSpiegel,August8,2005.

13.LeeKuanYew,“ContestforInfluenceintheAsia-PacificRegion,”Forbes,June18,2007.

14.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithMichaelElliott,ZoherAbdoolcarim,andSimonElegant,Time,

December12,2005.

15.LeeKuanYewonBurma’s“stupid”generalsandthe“gambler”ChenShuibian,classifiedcablefrom

PatriciaL.Herbold,formerU.S.ambassadortoSingapore,October17,2009.

16.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,December2,2011.

17.ErikEckholmandJosephKahn,“AsiaWorriesaboutGrowthofChina’sEconomicPower,”NewYork

Times,November24,2002.

18.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,May11,2011.

19.Ibid.

20.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,December2,2011.

21.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheLincolnAwardMedalCeremony,Washington,D.C.,October18,

2011.

22.WilliamSafire,“Danger:ChineseTinderbox,”NewYorkTimes,February22,1999.

23.FareedZakaria,“CultureIsDestiny:AConversationwithLeeKuanYew,”ForeignAffairs,Vol.73,

No.2(March/April1994),p.123.

24.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithCharlieRose,March28,2011.

25.TomPlate,ConversationswithLeeKuanYew:CitizenSingapore:HowtoBuildaNation(Singapore:

MarshallCavendish,2010),p.113.

26.Ibid.,p.72.

27.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithCharlieRose,October22,2009.

28.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithLeonardM.Apcar,WayneArnold,andSethMydans,International

HeraldTribune,August29,2007.

29.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,May11,2011.

30.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheLincolnAwardMedalCeremony.

31.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,May11,2011.

32.Ibid.

33.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew:HardTruthstoKeepSingaporeGoing,pp.321–322.

34.Ibid.,p.302.

35.LeeKuanYew,“China’sRise:AShiftinGlobalInfluence,”Forbes,December20,2010.

36.QuestionandanswersessionwithLeeKuanYewattheInternationalInstituteforStrategicStudies,

London,September23,2008.

37.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheLincolnAwardMedalCeremony.

38.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheWorldChineseEntrepreneursConvention,Singapore,August10,

1991.

39.LeeKuanYew,interviewwiththePublicBroadcastingService,May5,2001.

40.LeeKuanYew,“NewsfromaTimeCapsule,”Economist,September11,1993.

41.LeeKuanYew,“TheFundamentalsofSingapore’sForeignPolicy:ThenandNow,”S.Rajaratnam

Lecture,Singapore,April9,2009.

42.“TranscriptofSeniorMinister’sNewsConferencewiththeLocalMediainBeijing,12June2001,”

June15,2001.

43.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithTomPlateandJeffreyCole,AsiaMedia,October9,2007.

44.LeeKuanYew,“AsiaandtheWorldinthe21stCentury.”

45.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,March28,2012.

46.SimonElegant,“China’sNelsonMandela,”Time,November19,2007.

CHAPTER2

1.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,May11,2011.

2.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheLincolnAwardMedalCeremony,Washington,D.C.,October18,

2011.

3.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheU.S.-ASEANBusinessCouncil’s25thAnniversaryGalaDinner,

Washington,D.C.,October27,2009;andLeeKuanYew,“TheWorldafterIraq,”speechgivenatthe

ThammasatBusinessSchoolInternationalForum,Bangkok,December16,2003.

4.LeeKuanYew,“ChallengesofSmallCity-StatesinaGlobalizedWorld,”speechgivenatthe

inaugurationoftheInvestmentCorporationofDubai,Dubai,March1,2008;andLeeKuanYew,“The

FundamentalsofSingapore’sForeignPolicy:ThenandNow,”S.RajaratnamLecture,Singapore,April9,

2009.

5.LeeKuanYew,“TheWorldafter9/11,”speechgivenattheMunichEconomicSummit,Munich,June7,

2002.

6.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheTanjongPagar39thNationalDayCelebrationDinner,Singapore,

August20,2004.

7.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithTomPlateandJeffreyCole,AsiaMedia,October9,2007.

8.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithMichaelElliott,ZoherAbdoolcarim,andSimonElegant,Time,December

12,2005.

9.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheForbesGlobalCEOConferenceGalaDinner,Singapore,September

19,2001.

10.LeeKuanYew,“AnEntrepreneurialCultureforSingapore,”HoRihHwaLeadershipinAsiaPublic

Lecture,Singapore,February5,2002.

11.HanFookKwang,ZuraidahIbrahim,ChuaMuiHoong,LydiaLim,IgnatiusLow,RachelLin,and

RobinChan,LeeKuanYew:HardTruthstoKeepSingaporeGoing(Singapore:StraitsTimes,2011),pp.

150–151.

12.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithPeterDay,BBC,May13,2000.

13.LeeKuanYew,“EasternandWesternCulturesandModernization,”speechgivenattheChina

ScientistsForumonHumanities,Beijing,April21,2004.

14.PatrickBartaandRobertThomson,“Singapore’s‘Mentor’SeeksaSturdyU.S.,”WallStreetJournal,

April27,2011;KwanWengKin,“OnlyU.S.CanBalanceChina,”StraitsTimes,May27,2011;andYoichi

Funabashi,“MaintainingBalanceofPowerinAsiaRequiresU.S.Engagement,”AsahiShimbun,May15,

2010.

15.LeeKuanYew,“WhatHastheFutureinStoreforYourGeneration?”speechgivenattheNanyang

Auditorium,Singapore,February18,2003.

16.LeeKuanYew,“ChangesintheWind,”Forbes,October19,2009.

17.LeeKuanYew,“PeaceandProgressinEastAsia,”speechgivenatajointmeetingofCongress,

Washington,D.C.,October9,1985.

18.LeeKuanYew,FromThirdWorldtoFirst:TheSingaporeStory,1965–2000NewYork:

HarperCollins,2000),pp.498,500.

19.ChuangPeckMing,“LKYCautionsagainstTwo-PartyPoliticalSystem,”BusinessTimes,September

15,2011.

20.BartaandThomson,“Singapore’s‘Mentor’SeeksaSturdyU.S.”

21.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,December2,2011.

22.LeeKuanYew,“EastAsiaintheNewEra:TheProspectsofCooperation,”speechgivenattheHarvard

FairbankCenterConference,NewYork,May11,1992.

23.TomPlate,ConversationswithLeeKuanYew:CitizenSingapore:HowtoBuildaNation(Singapore:

MarshallCavendish,2010),p.91.

24.LeeKuanYew,“ForThirdWorldLeaders:HopeorDespair?”CollinsFamilyInternationalFellowship

Lecture,Cambridge,Massachusetts,October17,2000.

25.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatthePhilippineBusinessConference,Manila,November18,1992.

26.Ibid.

27.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,December2,2011.

28.“TheViewfromSingapore,”Time,July25,1969.

29.FareedZakaria,“CultureIsDestiny:AConversationwithLeeKuanYew,”ForeignAffairs,Vol.73,

No.2(March/April1994),pp.111–114.

30.NathanGardels,“CityoftheFuture:WhatAmericaCanLearnfromPostLiberalSingapore,”

WashingtonPost,February11,1996.

31.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheCreate21AsahiForum,Tokyo,November20,1992.

32.“Livs.Lee,”WallStreetJournal,August24,2004.

33.LeeKuanYew,“ExcitingTimesAhead,”speechgivenattheTanjongPagarGRCNationalDay

Dinner,Singapore,August12,1995.

34.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew:HardTruthstoKeepSingaporeGoing,p.56;andLeeKuanYew,

interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,December2,2011.

35.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithTomPlateandJeffreyCole.

36.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew:HardTruthstoKeepSingaporeGoing,p.434.

37.LeeKuanYew,lettertoSingapore’smedia,January18,2012.

38.HanFookKwang,WarrenFernandez,andSumikoTan,LeeKuanYew:TheManandHisIdeas

(Singapore:StraitsTimes,1998),p.134.

39.LeeKuanYew,“HowMuchIsaGoodMinisterWorth?”speechgivenatadebateintheSingaporean

parliamentonministerialsalaries,Singapore,November1,1994.

40.MichaelD.Barr,LeeKuanYew:TheBeliefsbehindtheMan(Washington,D.C.:Georgetown

UniversityPress,2000),p.212.

41.LeeKuanYew,“NewBearingsinOurEducationSystem,”speechgiventoprincipalsofschoolsin

Singapore,Singapore,August29,1966.

42.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenata“DinnerfortheEstablishment,”Singapore,September25,1984.

43.FarisMokhtar,“ForeignTalentAllowsS’poretoPunchaboveItsWeight,”Yahoo,July22,2011.

44.SecretaryofLaborChaomeetsSingaporeLeeKuanYew,SingaporeMinisterMentor,August29,2008,

classifiedcablefromPatriciaL.Herbold,formerU.S.ambassadortoSingapore,September18,2008.

45.LeeKuanYew,“WillSingaporeBeAnotherSlow-GrowingDevelopedNation?”speechgivenatthe

NanyangTechnologicalUniversity,Singapore,March14,1996.

46.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheSingaporeAmericanSchool’s50thAnniversaryCelebration,

Singapore,April11,2006.

47.QuestionandanswersessionwithLeeKuanYewattheAPECCEOSummit,Singapore,November13,

2009.

48.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithCharlieRose,October22,2009.

49.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheU.S.-ASEANBusinessCouncil’s25thAnniversaryGalaDinner.

50.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithCharlieRose.

51.ChristopherS.BondandLewisM.Simons,TheNextFront:SoutheastAsiaandtheRoadtoGlobal

PeacewithIslam(NewYork:JohnWileyandSons,2009),p.223.

CHAPTER3

1.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,December2,2011.

2.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithCharlieRose,March28,2011.

3.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheU.S.-ASEANBusinessCouncil’s25thAnniversaryGalaDinner,

Washington,D.C.,October27,2009.

4.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheInternationalInstituteforStrategicStudiesConference,Singapore,

September12,1997.

5.LeeKuanYew,“BattleforPreeminence,”Forbes,October11,2010;andLeeKuanYew,speechgiven

attheFortune500Forum,Boston,October23,1997.

6.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,December2,2011.

7.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheInternationalInstituteforStrategicStudiesConference.

8.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheAsahiShimbunSymposium,Tokyo,May9,1991.

9.PatrickBartaandRobertThomson,“Singapore’s‘Mentor’SeeksaSturdyU.S.,”WallStreetJournal,

April27,2011.

10.P.Parameswaran,“U.S.MustEngageAsiatoMaintainGlobalPower:Lee,”AgenceFrancePresse,

October27,2009.

11.LeeKuanYew,“EastAsiaintheNewEra:TheProspectsofCooperation,”speechgivenattheHarvard

FairbankCenterConference,NewYork,May11,1992.

12.LeeKuanYew,“Japan’sRoleinthe21stCentury,”speechgivenattheAsahiForum,Tokyo,

November17,1994.

13.LeeKuanYew,“EastAsiaintheNewEra:TheProspectsofCooperation.”

14.LeeKuanYew,“AmericaandAsia,”speechgivenattheArchitectoftheNewCenturyAward

Ceremony,Washington,D.C.,November11,1996.

15.NathanGardels,“TheEastAsianWay—withAirConditioning,”NewPerspectivesQuarterly,Vol.26,

No.4(Fall2009),p.116.

16.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheLincolnAwardMedalCeremony,Washington,D.C.,October18,

2011.

17.SummaryofaconversationbetweenLeeKuanYewandJohnThorntonattheFutureChinaGlobal

Forum,Singapore,July11,2011.

18.NicholasD.Kristof,“TheRiseofChina,”ForeignAffairs,Vol.72,No.5(November/December1993),

p.74.

19.LeeKuanYew,“China’sRise:AShiftinGlobalInfluence,”Forbes,December20,2010.

20.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,December2,2011.

21.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheAmexBankReviewAwardsGlobalForum,Singapore,November

15,1993.

22.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheCreate21AsahiSymposium,Osaka,November19,1996.

23.LeeKuanYew,“TheRiseofEastAsiaintheWorldEconomy:GeopoliticalandGeoeconomic

Implications,”speechgivenattheAsiaSocietyConference,Singapore,May19,1994.

24.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheCreate21AsahiSymposium.

25.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,May11,2011.

26.Ibid.

27.LeeKuanYew,“TheRiseofEastAsiaintheWorldEconomy.”

28.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheCreate21AsahiSymposium.

29.LeeKuanYew,“AmericaandAsia.”

30.LeeKuanYew,“TheDawnofthePacificCentury,”speechgivenatthePacificRimForum,SanDiego,

California,May13,1992.

31.LeeKuanYew,“TheRiseofEastAsia:ChallengesandOpportunities,”speechgivenattheWorld

EconomicForumSummit,Singapore,September20,1995.

32.“U.S.HoldsKeytoAsianSecurity—Lee,”Reuters,May16,1993.

33.QuestionandanswersessionwithLeeKuanYewattheLeeKuanYewSchoolofPublicPolicy’s5th

AnniversaryGalaDinner,Singapore,September2,2009.

34.LeeKuanYew,“Shanghai’sRoleinChina’sRenaissance,”speechgivenatthe2005ShanghaiForum,

Shanghai,May17,2005.

35.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,May11,2011.

CHAPTER4

1.LeeKuanYew,FromThirdWorldtoFirst:TheSingaporeStory,1965–2000(NewYork:HarperCollins,

2000),p.405.

2.Ibid.,p.412.

3.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatthelaunchofNarayanaMurthy’sABetterIndia:ABetterWorld,

Singapore,May11,2009.

4.SunandaK.Datta-Ray,LookingEasttoLookWest:LeeKuanYew’sMissionIndia(Singapore:ISEAS,

2009),p.153.

5.LeeKuanYew,“ManagingGlobalization:LessonsfromIndiaandChina,”speechgivenattheofficial

openingoftheLeeKuanYewSchoolofPublicPolicy,Singapore,April4,2005.

6.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatthelaunchofNarayanaMurthy’sABetterIndia:ABetterWorld.

7.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,December2,2011.

8.HanFookKwang,ZuraidahIbrahim,ChuaMuiHoong,LydiaLim,IgnatiusLow,RachelLin,andRobin

Chan,LeeKuanYew:HardTruthstoKeepSingaporeGoing(Singapore:StraitsTimes,2011),p.50.

9.TomPlate,ConversationswithLeeKuanYew:CitizenSingapore:HowtoBuildaNation(Singapore:

MarshallCavendish,2010),p.102.

10.ElginToh,“Mr.LeeOptimisticoverChina’sDevelopment;HePredictsNextLeaderWillSeektoTake

CountrytoHigherLevel,”StraitsTimes,July12,2011.

11.LeeKuanYew,“IndiainanAsianRenaissance,”37thJawaharlalNehruLecture,NewDelhi,

November21,2005.

12.LeeKuanYew,“ManagingGlobalization.”

13.LeeKuanYew,“IndiainanAsianRenaissance.”

14.LeeKuanYew,“ManagingGlobalization.”

15.RasheedaBhagat,“Lee’sRecipeforIndia,”HinduBusinessLine,October14,2008.

16.Datta-Ray,LookingEasttoLookWest,pp.223–224.

17.Ibid.,p.279.

18.RaviVelloor,“India’sEconomyonaRoll,butMindtheHumps,”StraitsTimes,November10,2007.

19.LeeKuanYew,“ManagingGlobalization.”

20.RaviVelloor,“IndiaWillPlayIndependentRole:MMLee,”StraitsTimes,November5,2007.

21.“India,ChinaUnlikelytoResolveBorderDispute:LeeKuanYew,”PressTrustofIndia,December16,

2009.

22.LeeKuanYew,“IndiainanAsianRenaissance.”

23.Ibid.

24.LeeKuanYew,“ManagingGlobalization.”

25.“LeeKuanYewSuggestsStrategyforIndiatoGrowbeyondCurrentRateofGrowth,”Xinhua,

December17,2009.

26.Datta-Ray,LookingEasttoLookWest,pp.298–299.

27.LeeKuanYew,“IndiainanAsianRenaissance.”

28.LeeKuanYew,interviewwiththePublicBroadcastingService,May5,2001.

29.LeeKuanYew,“ATrystwithDestiny,”speechgivenatajointmeetingoftheAssociatedChambersof

CommerceandIndustryofIndia,theFederationofIndianChambersofCommerceandIndustry,andthe

FederationofIndianIndustries,NewDelhi,January5,1996.

30.Ibid.

31.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew,pp.284–285.

32.LeeKuanYew,“ManagingGlobalization.”

33.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew,p.318.

34.Ibid.

35.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithLeonardM.Apcar,WayneArnold,andSethMydans,International

HeraldTribune,August29,2007.

36.LeeKuanYew,“India’sPeacefulRise,”Forbes,December24,2007.

37.P.S.Suryanarayana,“China,IndiaNotBasicallyAdversaries:LeeKuanYew,”Hindu,July24,2011.

38.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithCharlieRose,March28,2011.

39.QuestionandanswersessionwithLeeKuanYewattheInternationalInstituteforStrategicStudies,

London,September23,2008.

40.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill.

41.LeeKuanYew,“ATrystwithDestiny.”

42.LeeKuanYew,“IndiainanAsianRenaissance.”

43.LeeKuanYew,“ManagingGlobalization.”

44.LeeKuanYew,“IndiainanAsianRenaissance.”

45.Datta-Ray,LookingEasttoLookWest,p.7.

46.KripaSridharan,“TheEvolutionandGrowthofIndia-SingaporeRelations,”inYongMunCheongand

V.V.BhanojiRao,eds.,Singapore-IndiaRelations:APrimer(Singapore:SingaporeUniversityPress,

1995),p.23.

47.Datta-Ray,LookingEasttoLookWest,p.81.

48.Plate,ConversationswithLeeKuanYew,pp.105–106.

49.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill.

50.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew,p.315.

51.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill.

52.Velloor,“IndiaWillPlayIndependentRole.”

CHAPTER5

1.LeeKuanYew,“UncertaintiesAbound,”speechgivenattheTanjongPagar37thNationalDay

CelebrationDinner,Singapore,August16,2002.

2.HanFookKwang,ZuraidahIbrahim,ChuaMuiHoong,LydiaLim,IgnatiusLow,RachelLin,andRobin

Chan,LeeKuanYew:HardTruthstoKeepSingaporeGoing(Singapore:StraitsTimes,2011),p.239.

3.FareedZakaria,“WeNeedtoGettheQueenBees,”Newsweek,December1,2003.

4.LeeKuanYew,“HomegrownIslamicTerrorists,”Forbes,October17,2005.

5.LeeKuanYew,“OilandIslamism,”Forbes,March13,2006(emphasisinoriginal).

6.SenatorBaucus’smeetingwithLeeKuanYew,classifiedcablefromPatriciaL.Herbold,formerU.S.

ambassadortoSingapore,January17,2006.

7.LeeKuanYew,“TheEastAsianStrategicBalanceafter9/11,”speechgivenatthe1stInternational

InstituteforStrategicStudiesAsiaSecurityConference,Singapore,May31,2002.

8.LeeKuanYew,“AfterIraq,”speechgivenatthe2ndInternationalInstituteforStrategicStudiesAsia

SecurityConference,Singapore,May30,2003.

9.LeeKuanYew,“TheEastAsianStrategicBalanceafter9/11.”

10.LeeKuanYew,“WhatWentWrong?”interviewwithMichaelVatikiotis,FarEasternEconomic

Review,December2002.

11.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithCharlieRose,September24,2004.

12.ChristopherS.BondandLewisM.Simons,TheNextFront:SoutheastAsiaandtheRoadtoGlobal

PeacewithIslam(NewYork:JohnWileyandSons,2009),p.223.

13.TomPlate,ConversationswithLeeKuanYew:CitizenSingapore:HowtoBuildaNation(Singapore:

MarshallCavendish,2010),pp.117–118.

14.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew,pp.228,230.

15.LeeKuanYew,“OilandIslamism.”

16.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithCharlieRose.

17.LeeKuanYew,“Terrorism,”Forbes,December26,2005.

18.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheSingaporeanparliamentontheproposaltodevelopintegrated

resorts,Singapore,April19,2005.

19.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithArnauddeBorchgrave,UnitedPressInternational,February8,2008.

20.LeeKuanYew,“WhatWentWrong?”

21.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheTanjongPagar40thNationalDayCelebrationDinner,Singapore,

August12,2005.

22.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,December2,2011.

23.Plate,ConversationswithLeeKuanYew,p.120.

24.LeeKuanYew,“TheCostofRetreatinIraq,”WashingtonPost,March8,2008.

25.LeeKuanYew,“TheUnitedStates,Iraq,andtheWaronTerror:ASingaporeanPerspective,”Foreign

Affairs,Vol.86,No.1(January/February2007),p.3.

26.LeeKuanYew,“IslamandDemocracyinSoutheastAsia,”Forbes,July26,2004.

27.Zakaria,“WeNeedtoGettheQueenBees.”

28.LeeKuanYew,“CanWeEverUnderstandMuslimTerrorists?”Forbes,October13,2003.

29.PressstatementbyYeongYoonYingonbehalfofLeeKuanYew,September5,2011.

30.LeeKuanYew,“WhatHastheFutureinStoreforYourGeneration?”speechgivenattheNanyang

Auditorium,Singapore,February18,2003.

31.LeeKuanYew,“TheWorldafterIraq,”speechgivenattheThammasatBusinessSchoolInternational

Forum,Bangkok,December16,2003.

32.“LeeKuanYewGivesWarningtoIslamicModerates,”AgenceFrancePresse,March28,2004.

33.LeeKuanYew,“TheEastAsianStrategicBalanceafter9/11.”

34.LeeKuanYew,“HomegrownIslamicTerrorists,”Forbes,October17,2005.

35.Lee,“TheUnitedStates,Iraq,andtheWaronTerror,”pp.3–4.

36.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithMichaelElliott,ZoherAbdoolcarim,andSimonElegant,Time,

December12,2005.

37.LeeKuanYew,“TheEastAsianStrategicBalanceafter9/11.”

38.“IslamicTerrorismtoRemain:LeeKuanYew,”People’sDaily,October14,2004.

39.VisitbySenatorClintontoSingapore(July5–7),classifiedcablefromFrankL.Lavin,formerU.S.

ambassadortoSingapore,July6,2005.

40.Zakaria,“WeNeedtoGettheQueenBees.”

41.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithArnauddeBorchgrave.

CHAPTER6

1.HanFookKwang,ZuraidahIbrahim,ChuaMuiHoong,LydiaLim,IgnatiusLow,RachelLin,andRobin

Chan,LeeKuanYew:HardTruthstoKeepSingaporeGoing(Singapore:StraitsTimes,2011),p.292.

2.Ibid.,pp.156–157.

3.FareedZakaria,“CultureIsDestiny:AConversationwithLeeKuanYew,”ForeignAffairs,Vol.73,No.

2(March/April1994),p.120(emphasisintheoriginal).

4.LeeKuanYew,“ForThirdWorldLeaders:HopeorDespair?”CollinsFamilyInternationalFellowship

Lecture,Cambridge,Massachusetts,October17,2000.

5.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheNationalDayrallyattheSingaporeConferenceHall,Singapore,

August18,1985.

6.LeeKuanYew,“Laissez-FaireProcreation,”ForeignPolicy,August30,2005.

7.LeeKuanYew,“GlobalRealignment:AnInterpretationofAsia’sNewDynamism,”speechgivenatthe

GlobalStrategiesConference,Singapore,June6,1990.

8.LeeKuanYew,“AttributesforSuccess,”speechgivenatthe1999Enterprise50GalaDinnerandAward

Ceremony,Singapore,November25,1999.

9.LeeKuanYew,“EasternandWesternCulturesandModernization,”speechgivenattheChinaScientists

ForumonHumanities,Beijing,April21,2004.

10.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheSingaporeInternationalChamberofCommerceCelebrationDinner,

Singapore,November15,2000.

11.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheMillenniumLawConferenceGalaDinner,Singapore,April11,

2000.

12.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheSingaporeTechVenture2000Conference,SanFrancisco,

California,March9,2000.

13.LeeKuanYew,“Asia,America,andEuropeintheNextMillennium:TowardsEconomic

ComplementarityandConvergence,”speechgivenattheABNAMROSymposium,Amsterdam,June6,

1997(emphasisintheoriginal).

14.LeeKuanYew,“UncertaintiesAbound,”speechgivenattheTanjongPagar37thNationalDay

CelebrationDinner,Singapore,August16,2002.

15.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheTanjongPagar34thNationalDayCelebration,Singapore,August

14,1999.

16.LeeKuanYew,MayDaymessage,May1,1984.

17.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew,pp.173–174.

18.LeeKuanYew,“ManagingGlobalization:LessonsfromChinaandIndia,”speechgivenattheofficial

openingoftheLeeKuanYewSchoolofPublicPolicy,Singapore,April4,2005.

19.LeeKuanYew,“Singapore:A21st-CenturyEconomy,”speechgivenattheBarcelonaChamberof

Commerce,Industry,andShipping,Barcelona,September14,2005.

20.KevinHamlin,“RemakingSingapore,”InstitutionalInvestor,May2002.

21.LeeKuanYew,“Productivity:TimeforAction,”speechgivenattheinaugurationofProductivity

Month1983attheSingaporeConferenceHall,Singapore,November1,1983.

22.Zakaria,“CultureIsDestiny,”pp.114–115.

23.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheChineseNewYearReception,Singapore,February15,1984.

24.LeeKuanYew,“Productivity:EveryIndividualMakestheDifference,”speechgivenatthe

inaugurationofthe1999ProductivityCampaign,Singapore,April9,1999.

25.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatthelaunchoftheEnglishLanguageInstituteofSingapore,Singapore,

September6,2011.

CHAPTER7

1.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,March28,2012.

2.Ibid.

3.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithCharlieRose,October22,2009.

4.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill.

5.Ibid.

6.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheU.S.-ASEANBusinessCouncil’s25thAnniversaryGalaDinner,

Washington,D.C.,October27,2009.

7.LeeKuanYew,“TheFundamentalsofSingapore’sForeignPolicy:ThenandNow,”S.Rajaratnam

Lecture,Singapore,April9,2009.

8.QuestionandanswersessionwithLeeKuanYewattheLeeKuanYewSchoolofPublicPolicy’s5th

AnniversaryGalaDinner,Singapore,September2,2009.

9.QuestionandanswersessionwithLeeKuanYewattheAPECCEOSummit,Singapore,November13,

2009.

10.LeeKuanYew,“2009WillTesttheCharacterofSingaporeans,”speechgivenattheTanjongPagar

ChineseNewYearDinner,Singapore,February6,2009.

11.LeeKuanYew,“ChangesintheWind,”Forbes,October19,2009.

12.LeeKuanYew,“TheWorldIsTrulyaGlobalVillage,”Forbes,March26,2012.

13.LeeKuanYew,“HowWillSingaporeCompeteinaGlobalEconomy?”speechgivenatNanyang

TechnologicalUniversity,Singapore,February15,2000.

14.LeeKuanYew,“TheRoleofSingaporeintheAsianBoom,”speechgivenattheInternationalGraduate

SchoolofManagement,Barcelona,September13,2005.

15.LeeKuanYew,“MoreGlobalized,MoreTroubled,”Forbes,October15,2007.

16.LeeKuanYew,“WhatHastheFutureinStoreforYourGeneration?”speechgivenattheNanyang

Auditorium,Singapore,February18,2003.

17.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheTanjongPagar42ndNationalDayCelebrationDinner,Singapore,

August17,2007.

18.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheCommemorationConferenceofConfucius’s2,550thBirthdayand

the2ndCongressoftheInternationalConfuciusAssociation,Beijing,October7,1999.

19.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatthe21stCenturyForumon“EconomicGlobalization—Chinaand

Asia,”Beijing,June14,2000.

20.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatameetingoftheCommonwealthHeadsofGovernmenton“World

PoliticalScene:GlobalTrendsandProspects,”Vancouver,October13,1987.

21.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheForbesGlobalCEOConferenceGalaDinner,Singapore,September

19,2001.

22.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheNationalTradeUnionCongress40thAnniversaryDinner,

Singapore,September6,2001.

23.LeeKuanYew,“HowWillSingaporeCompeteinaGlobalEconomy?”

24.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheJapaneseChamberofCommerceandIndustryinSingapore’s30th

AnniversaryCelebration,Singapore,January28,2000.

25.LeeKuanYew,“ToRollwithChangebutNotAbandonValues,”StraitsTimes,July22,2000.

26.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheAsianStrategyandLeadershipInstitute’s“WorldEthicsand

IntegrityForum,”KualaLumpur,April28,2005.

27.LeeKuanYew,“TheFundamentalsofSingapore’sForeignPolicy:ThenandNow.”

28.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithLeonardM.Apcar,WayneArnold,andSethMydans,International

HeraldTribune,August29,2007.

29.LeeKuanYew,“EconomicOrderorDisorderaftertheColdWar?”speechgivenattheAsahiForum,

Tokyo,October29,1993.

CHAPTER8

1.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatTanjongPagarCommunityCenter’sNationalDayCelebrationDinner,

Singapore,August16,1984.

2.RadiobroadcastofaLeeKuanYewspeechgivenonJune5,1959.

3.LeeKuanYew,speechgiventoSingaporeanassemblymenandcivilservants,Singapore,November16,

1959.

4.LeeKuanYew,MayDaymessage,May1,1962.

5.RadiobroadcastofaLeeKuanYewspeechgivenonJune2,1960.

6.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheNationalRecreationCenter,Singapore,April25,1960.

7.FareedZakaria,“CultureIsDestiny:AConversationwithLeeKuanYew,”ForeignAffairs,Vol.73,No.

2(March/April1994),pp.112–114.

8.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatTanjongPagar’s33rdNationalDayCelebration,Singapore,August15,

1998.

9.TomPlate,ConversationswithLeeKuanYew:CitizenSingapore:HowtoBuildaNation(Singapore:

MarshallCavendish,2010),p.86.

10.LeeKuanYew,“PoliticalLeadershipinNewSocieties,”speechgivenattheSingaporeChamberof

Commerce,HongKong,December8,2000.

11.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheopeningofthesecondmeetingoftheMalaysiaSolidarity

ConsultativeCommittee,Singapore,December18,1961.

12.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenataconferenceofthePeople’sActionParty,Singapore,November15,

1982.

13.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenata“dinnerfortheEstablishment,”Singapore,September25,1984.

14.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheMalaysiaSolidarityDaymassrally,Singapore,August31,1963.

15.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheMayDayrally,Singapore,May1,1961.

16.LeeKuanYew,speechgiventotheguildofNanyangUniversitygraduates,Singapore,November6,

1960.

17.LeeKuanYew,FromThirdWorldtoFirst:TheSingaporeStory,1965–2000NewYork:

HarperCollins,2000),p.688.

18.Plate,ConversationswithLeeKuanYew,p.31.

19.RadiobroadcastofapressconferencewithLeeKuanYew,November19,1961.

20.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenataluncheonoftheAustralianparliament,Canberra,October20,1976.

21.QuestionandanswersessionwithLeeKuanYewattheRoyalInstituteforInternationalAffairs,

London,May14,1962.

22.HanFookKwang,WarrenFernandez,andSumikoTan,LeeKuanYew:TheManandHisIdeas

(Singapore:StraitsTimes,1998),p.127

23.Ibid.,p.229.

24.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheopeningoftheCivilServiceCenter,Singapore,August15,1959.

25.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenataseminaron“TheConceptofDemocracy”atthePoliticalStudy

Center,Singapore,August16,1964.

26.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatanelectionrallyatCityCouncil,Singapore,December20,1957.

27.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatarallyinKlang,Singapore,April14,1964.

28.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatadinneroftheUniversityofMalayaStudentUnion,Singapore,

November30,1961.

29.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheswearing-inoftheSingaporeanCabinet,Singapore,January2,

1985.

30.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenonthePreservationofPublicSecurityOrdinance,Singapore,October8,

1958.

31.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatarallyinFullertonSquare,Singapore,December19,1984.

32.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheUniversityofMalaya,KualaLumpur,August28,1964.

33.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenontheeveofelectionsinSingapore,April24,1964.

34.Zakaria,“CultureIsDestiny,”p.119.

35.LeeKuanYew,speechgiventoSingaporeancivilservantsatthePoliticalCenter,Singapore,June14,

1962.

36.RichardLambert,PeterMontagnon,andWillDawkins,“VeteranAsianLeaderScornsU.S.Policy,”

FinancialTimes,May19,1999.

37.LeeKuanYew,speechgiventotheUniversityofSingaporeLawSocietyAnnualDinner,Singapore,

January18,1962.

38.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenonthePreservationofPublicSecurityOrdinance,Singapore,October8,

1958.

39.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheTanjongPagarNationalDayDinner,Singapore,August13,1987.

40.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatthePeople’sActionParty’s45thAnniversaryCelebrations,Singapore,

November21,1999.

41.Lee,FromThirdWorldtoFirst,p.106.

42.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatTanjongPagarNationalDayCelebration,Singapore,August15,2010.

CHAPTER9

1.HanFookKwang,WarrenFernandez,andSumikoTan,LeeKuanYew:TheManandHisIdeas

(Singapore:StraitsTimes,1998),p.194.

2.LeeKuanYew,NewYear’smessage,January1,1958.

3.SunandaK.Datta-Ray,LookingEasttoLookWest:LeeKuanYew’sMissionIndia(Singapore:ISEAS,

2009),p.177.

4.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithMarkJacobson,July6,2009.

5.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheCreate21AsahiForum,Tokyo,November20,1992.

6.LeeKuanYew,“BigandSmallFishesinAsianWaters,”speechgivenatameetingoftheUniversityof

SingaporeDemocraticSocialistClub,Singapore,June15,1966.

7.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheTanjongPagar41stNationalDayCelebrationDinner,Singapore,

August18,2006.

8.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew:TheManandHisIdeas,p.175.

9.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheUniversityofSingaporeBusinessAdministrationSociety’sInaugural

Dinner,Singapore,August27,1996.

10.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew:TheManandHisIdeas,p.159.

11.LeeKuanYew,“U.S.:OpportunitiesinAsia;ChallengesintheMiddleEast,”speechgivenatSouthern

MethodistUniversity,Dallas,October19,2006.

12.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew:TheManandHisIdeas,p.130.

13.TomPlate,ConversationswithLeeKuanYew:CitizenSingapore:HowtoBuildaNation(Singapore:

MarshallCavendish,2010),p.177.

14.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew:TheManandHisIdeas,pp.230,233.

15.Ibid.,p.245.

16.Plate,ConversationswithLeeKuanYew,pp.49–50.

17.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew:TheManandHisIdeas,p.22.

18.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenonthesecondreadingof“TheConstitutionoftheRepublicofSingapore

(Amendment)Bill”beforetheSingaporeanparliament,Singapore,July24,1984.

19.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenathis60thbirthdaydinner,Singapore,September16,1983.

20.RadiobroadcastofaLeeKuanYewspeechgivenonSeptember4,1962.

21.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheSocialistInternationalCongress,Brussels,September5,1964.

22.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatthelaunchingoftheS.H.B.Tug“Tegoh”byH.E.theYangDi-

PertuanNegara,Singapore,February27,1960.

23.Plate,ConversationswithLeeKuanYew,pp.46–47.

24.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew:TheManandHisIdeas,p.109.

25.Ibid.,p.151.

26.LeeKuanYew,discussionwithfiveforeigncorrespondents,recordedatSingaporeBroadcasting

Corporation,Singapore,October9,1984.

27.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,December2,2011.

28.LeeKuanYew,“HistoryIsNotMadetheWayItIsWritten,”speechgivenatthePeople’sAction

Party’s25thAnniversaryRally,Singapore,January20,1980.

29.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheCeremonyofAdmissiontotheDegreeofDoctorofLawsat

MelbourneUniversity,Melbourne,April21,1994.

30.LeeKuanYew,speechgiventoSingaporeanministers,ministersofstate,andseniorcivilservice

officers,Singapore,February27,1979.

31.LeeKuanYew,“‘TheReturnedStudent’:PlatitudesandControversy,”speechgivenattheMalayan

Forum,London,January28,1950.

32.RadiobroadcastofaLeeKuanYewspeechgivenSeptember15,1961.

33.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatthelaunchoftheDevanNairResearchandTrainingEndowmentFund,

Singapore,September24,1966.

34.LeeKuanYew,speechgiventoSingaporeancivilservants,Singapore,June14,1962.

35.MichaelD.Barr,LeeKuanYew:TheBeliefsbehindtheMan(Washington,D.C.:Georgetown

UniversityPress,2000),p.77.

36.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatarallyinKlang,Singapore,April16,1964.

37.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheImperialCollegeCommemorationEveDinner,London,October

22,2002.

38.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatadinneroftheForeignCorrespondentsAssociation,Tokyo,March21,

1967.

39.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheannualdinneroftheSingaporeEmployers’Federation,Singapore,

May10,1968.

40.SpeechbyMinisterMentorLeeKuanYewattheTanjongPagarChineseNewYearDinner,Singapore,

February10,2006.

41.LeeKuanYew,“Asia,America,andEuropeintheNextMillenniumTowardsEconomic

ComplementarityandConvergence,”speechgivenattheABNAMROSymposium,June6,1997.

42.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenattheInternationalInstituteforStrategicStudiesConference,Singapore,

September12,1997.

43.Plate,ConversationswithLeeKuanYew,pp.110–111.

44.LeeKuanYew,“Singapore-U.K.Relations:BringingForwardanOldFriendship,”speechgivenatthe

BritishChamberofCommerce’s50thAnniversaryDinner,Singapore,January8,2004.

45.LeeKuanYew,“AnEntrepreneurialCultureforSingapore,”HoRihHwaLeadershipinAsiaPublic

Lecture,Singapore,February5,2002.

46.LeeKuanYew,“ForThirdWorldLeaders:HopeorDespair?”CollinsFamilyInternationalFellowship

Lecture,Cambridge,Massachusetts,October17,2000.

47.SummaryofaconversationbetweenLeeKuanYewandJohnThorntonattheFutureChinaGlobal

Forum,Singapore,July11,2011.

48.HarvardUniversityLeadershipRoundtablewithLeeKuanYew,“PersonalReflectionsonLeadership,”

Cambridge,Massachusetts,October18,2000.

49.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew:TheManandHisIdeas,p.103.

50.LeeKuanYew,speechgivenatameetingoftheConsultationYouthandLeadershipTraining,

Singapore,April10,1967.

51.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithGrahamAllisonandRobertD.Blackwill,March28,2012.

52.HanFookKwang,ZuraidahIbrahim,ChuaMuiHoong,LydiaLim,IgnatiusLow,RachelLin,and

RobinChan,LeeKuanYew:HardTruthstoKeepSingaporeGoing(Singapore:StraitsTimes,2011),pp.

389–390.

53.LeeKuanYew,eulogyatthestatefuneralserviceforGohKengSwee,Singapore,May23,2010.

54.Kwangetal.,LeeKuanYew:HardTruthstoKeepSingaporeGoing,p.390.

55.LeeKuanYew,interviewwithMarkJacobson,July6,2009.

56.SethMydans,“DaysofReflectionfortheManWhoDefinedSingapore,”NewYorkTimes,September

11,2010.

BelferCenterStudiesinInternationalSecurity

PublishedbyTheMITPress

SeanM.Lynn-JonesandStevenE.Miller,serieseditors

KarenMotley,executiveeditor

BelferCenterforScienceandInternationalAffairs

JohnF.KennedySchoolofGovernment,HarvardUniversity

Acharya,Amitav, and EvelynGoh, eds.,Reassessing Security Cooperation inthe Asia-Pacific: Competition, Congruence, and Transformation (2007)Agha,Hussein,ShaiFeldman,AhmadKhalidi,andZeevSchiff,Track-IIDiplomacy:LessonsfromtheMiddleEast(2003)Allison,Graham,andRobertD.Blackwill,with Ali Wyne, Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, theUnited States, and the World (2012) Allison, Graham T., Owen R. Coté Jr.,Richard A. Falkenrath, and Steven E. Miller, Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy:ContainingtheThreatofLooseRussianNuclearWeaponsandFissileMaterial(1996)Allison,GrahamT., andKalypsoNicolaïdis, eds.,TheGreekParadox:Promise vs. Performance (1997) Arbatov, Alexei, Abram Chayes, AntoniaHandlerChayes,andLaraOlson,eds.,ManagingConflictintheFormerSovietUnion: Russian and American Perspectives (1997) Bennett, Andrew,Condemned to Repetition? The Rise, Fall, and Reprise of Soviet-RussianMilitary Interventionism, 1973–1996 (1999) Blackwill, Robert D., and PaulDibb,eds.,America’sAsianAlliances(2000)

Blackwill,RobertD., andMichaelStürmer,eds.,AlliesDivided:TransatlanticPolicies for the Greater Middle East (1997) Blum, Gabriella, and Philip B.Heymann,Laws,Outlaws,andTerrorists:Lessons from theWaronTerrorism(2010) Brom, Shlomo, and Yiftah Shapir, eds., The Middle East MilitaryBalance,1999–2000(1999)

Brom, Shlomo, and Yiftah Shapir, eds., The Middle East Military Balance,2001–2002(2002)

Brown, Michael E., ed., The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict(1996)

Brown,MichaelE.,andSumitGanguly,eds.,FightingWords:LanguagePolicy

and Ethnic Relations in Asia (2003) Brown,Michael E., and Sumit Ganguly,eds.,GovernmentPoliciesandEthnicRelations inAsiaand thePacific (1997)Carter, Ashton B., and John P. White, eds., Keeping the Edge: ManagingDefense for the Future (2001) Chenoweth, Erica, and Adria Lawrence, eds.,RethinkingViolence:StatesandNon-StateActorsinConflict(2010)deNevers,Renée,ComradesNoMore:TheSeedsofChangeinEasternEurope(2003)

Elman, Colin, and Miriam Fendius Elman, eds., Bridges and Boundaries:Historians,PoliticalScientists,and theStudyof InternationalRelations(2001)Elman, Colin, and Miriam Fendius Elman, eds., Progress in InternationalRelations Theory: Appraising the Field (2003) Elman, Miriam Fendius, ed.,PathstoPeace:IsDemocracytheAnswer?

(1997)

Falkenrath, Richard A., Shaping Europe’s Military Order: The Origins andConsequences of the CFE Treaty (1995) Falkenrath, Richard A., Robert D.Newman, and Bradley A. Thayer, America’s Achilles’ Heel: Nuclear,Biological,andChemicalTerrorismandCovertAttack(1998)Feaver,PeterD.,andRichardH.Kohn,eds.,SoldiersandCivilians:TheCivil-MilitaryGapandAmericanNationalSecurity(2001)Feldman,Shai,NuclearWeaponsandArmsControlintheMiddleEast(1996)

Feldman, Shai, and Yiftah Shapir, eds., The Middle East Military Balance,2000–2001(2001)

Forsberg, Randall, ed., The Arms Production Dilemma: Contraction andRestraint in theWorldCombatAircraft Industry (1994)George,AlexanderL.,and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the SocialSciences (2005)Gilroy,Curtis, andCindyWilliams, eds.,Service toCountry:PersonnelPolicyandtheTransformationofWesternMilitaries(2007)Hagerty,Devin.T.,TheConsequencesofNuclearProliferation:LessonsfromSouthAsia(1998)Heymann,PhilipB.,TerrorismandAmerica:ACommonsenseStrategyforaDemocraticSociety(1998)Heymann,PhilipB.,Terrorism,Freedom,andSecurity:WinningwithoutWar(2003)

Heymann, PhilipB., and JulietteN.Kayyem,Protecting Liberty in anAge ofTerror(2005)

Howitt, Arnold M., and Robyn L. Pangi, eds., Countering Terrorism:Dimensions of Preparedness (2003)Hudson,ValerieM., andAndreaM.DenBoer, Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia’s Surplus MalePopulation (2004) Kayyem, Juliette N., and Robyn L. Pangi, eds., First toArrive: State and Local Responses to Terrorism (2003)Kokoshin, Andrei A.,Soviet Strategic Thought, 1917–91 (1998) Lederberg, Joshua, ed., BiologicalWeapons:Limiting theThreat (1999)Mansfield,EdwardD., and JackSnyder,Electing to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go to War (2005) Martin,Lenore G., and Dimitris Keridis, eds., The Future of Turkish Foreign Policy(2004)

May,ErnestR.,andPhilipD.Zelikow,eds.,DealingwithDictators:DilemmasofU.S.DiplomacyandIntelligenceAnalysis,1945–1990(2007)Phillips,DavidL.,LiberatingKosovo:CoerciveDiplomacyandU.S.Intervention(2012)

Shaffer,Brenda,BordersandBrethren: Iranand theChallengeofAzerbaijaniIdentity (2002)Shaffer,Brenda,ed.,TheLimitsofCulture: IslamandForeignPolicy(2006)

Shields,JohnM.,andWilliamC.Potter,eds.,DismantlingtheColdWar:U.S.and NIS Perspectives on the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat ReductionProgram(1997)Tucker,JonathanB.,ed.,ToxicTerror:AssessingTerroristUseofChemicalandBiologicalWeapons(2000)Utgoff,VictorA.,ed.,TheComingCrisis:NuclearProliferation,U.S. Interests, andWorldOrder (2000)Weiner,SharonK.,OurOwnWorstEnemy?InstitutionalInterestsandtheProliferationofNuclearWeaponsExpertise (2011)Williams,Cindy, ed.,Filling theRanks:Transforming theU.S.MilitaryPersonnelSystem (2004)Williams,Cindy,ed.,HoldingtheLine:U.S.DefenseAlternativesforthe21stCentury(2001)BelferCenterforScienceandInternationalAffairs

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The Center has a dual mission: (1) to provide leadership in advancingpolicyrelevant knowledge about themost important challenges of internationalsecurity and other critical issues where science, technology, environmentalpolicy,andinternationalaffairsintersect;and(2)topreparefuturegenerationsofleadersforthesearenas.Centerresearchersnotonlyconductscholarlyresearch,but also develop prescriptions for policy reform. Faculty and fellows analyzeglobalchallengesfromnuclearproliferationandterrorismtoclimatechangeandenergypolicy.

The Belfer Center’s leadership begins with the recognition of science andtechnologyasdrivingforcesconstantlytransformingboththechallengeswefaceand the opportunities for problem solving. Building on the vision of founderPaulDoty, theCenteraddressesseriousglobalconcernsbyintegratinginsightsand research of social scientists, natural scientists, technologists, andpractitionersingovernment,diplomacy,themilitary,andbusiness.

TheheartoftheBelferCenterisitsresidentresearchcommunityofmorethan150scholars,includingHarvardfaculty,researchers,practitioners,andeachyeara new, international, interdisciplinary group of research fellows. Throughpublicationsandpolicydiscussions,workshops,seminars,andconferences, theCenter promotes innovative solutions to significant national and internationalchallenges.

The Center’s International Security Program, directed by Steven E. Miller,publishes theBelferCenterStudies in InternationalSecurity,andsponsorsandeditsthequarterlyjournalInternationalSecurity.

TheCenterissupportedbyanendowmentestablishedwithfundsfromRobertandRenéeBelfer, theFordFoundation,andHarvardUniversity,byfoundationgrants,byindividualgifts,andbyoccasionalgovernmentcontracts.