lee county hotel overview · nashville, tn 74.1 6.2 bachelorette parties orlando, fl 79.3 4.8...

© 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

Lee County Hotel OverviewTourist Development Council

Jennifer FosterBusiness Development Executive, Destinations

[email protected]

© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.

www.hotelnewsnow.comData Dashboard>View All Data Presentations

© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 3

• Total US Review

• Florida Performance

• Lee County Performance

• Comparable Markets

• Pipeline

• Forecast

Agenda


Total U.S. Review

© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 5December 2017, Total US Results

December 2017

RevPAR +4.6%

Occupancy +2.3%

Highest December Room Demand: 86 Million

Transient RevPAR +3.9%

“In Construction” rooms declined again from last year (-3.7%)


Full Year 2017: A Record Year!

% Change

Room Supply 1.8%

Room Demand 2.7%

Occupancy (*Record*) 65.9% 0.9%

A.D.R. (*Record*) $127 2.1%

RevPAR (*Record*) $85 3.0%

Room Revenue 4.9%

YTD December 2017, Total US Results


US December RevPAR: 2 States Continue to Help Weaker US Results

Total US: +4.6%Florida: +14.7%Texas: +13.6%

Total US excluding Florida and Texas: +2.4%

*RevPAR % Change, December 2017


Demand Continues to Grow. Supply Growth Not an Issue

-0.8

-4.7

-7.1

7.7

-8

-4

0

4

8

1990 2000 2010

Supply % Change

Demand % Change

Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 12/2017


Did We Miss The “2016 Downturn”? Looks Like Smooth Sailing Ahead

-3.4

-6.7

-9.7

0.9

6.8 7.5

2.1

-10

-5

0

5

1990 2000 2010

Occ % Change

ADR % Change

Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 12/2017


RevPAR Growth: Erratic Monthly Numbers, But Overall Trend Is Still Steady

0

2

4

6

8

10

2015 2016 2017

Monthly 12MMA

*Total U.S., RevPAR % Change by month and 12 MMA, 1/2015 – 12/2017


RevPAR Growth: Almost 8 Consecutive Years

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1990 2000 2010

Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/1990 – 12/2017

56 Months 94 Months111 Months


Class Review YTD


Class: GDP Growth Spurs Very Healthy Demand Growth Across All Classes

2.11.7

4.34.0

0.2

-0.4

2.42.0

5.0 4.8

1.5

0.5

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

Supply % Change

Demand % Change

*Supply / Demand % Change, by Class, December 2017 YTD


ADR Growth Drives RevPAR Growth, But Occupancy Growth Still Contributes As Well

0.3 0.30.7 0.8

1.20.9

1.41.6

1.6 1.6

2.4 3.1

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

ADR % Change

Occ % Change

*RevPAR % Change by Contribution of OCC / ADR % Change, by Class, December 2017 YTD


Segmentation


Transient Segment – Rooms reserved at rack rate, corporate negotiated, package, government rate or rooms booked via third party websites.

Group Segment – Rooms sold simultaneously in blocks of 10 or more.


Transient Performance: Healthy Demand Increases in Q4. ADR Growth Still Anemic

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

Demand % Change

ADR % Change

*Transient Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2015 – 12/2017


Group Performance: Demand Continues to Decline. ADR Growth Slowing Month By Month

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

Demand % Change

ADR % Change

*Group Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2015 – 12/2017

Easter Shift

Jewish Holiday Shift


Demand Growth is Transient Driven

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mill

ion

s

Transient DemandGroup Demand

*Total Number of Rooms Sold, Group and Transient, by year 2011 – R12 2017

Demand % Change ‘11 – ’17:Transient: +19.1%

Group: +7%


ADR: Lately Transient ADR Is Hardly Moving

$150

$175

$200

$225

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Transient ADR

Group ADR

ADR % Change ‘11 – ’17:Transient: +23%

Group: +21%

*Total Number of Rooms Sold, Group and Transient, by year 2011 – R12 2017


Transient ADR Growth Slowing Despite Record Level Occupancy

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2014 2015 2016 2017

Transient Group

Transient & Group ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2014 – 3/2017

1.7

3.7

Welcome to Florida!


Florida Performance: Record Setting!!!

+1.4%

+4.6%

+3.2%+2.6%

+5.9%

Occupancy: 73.9%ADR: $138RevPAR: $102

Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR

2017 YE, Total Florida Results


Demand Growth Holds Out Over Supply Growth

-0.2 -2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17

Supply % Change

Demand % Change

Revenue % Change

Florida. Revenue, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/2013 – 12/2017

4.6%

1.4%


13 STR Florida Markets (164 Total US Markets)


2017: A Good Year For Most (But Not All)

Market OCC % ADR % Change Influenced By

Nashville, TN 74.1 6.2 Bachelorette Parties

Orlando, FL 79.3 4.8

Detroit, MI 66.6 4.7

Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 72.6 4.0 Hurricane Irma Hangover

Washington, DC-MD-VA 72.1 4.0 Inauguration / Women’s March

Miami/Hialeah, FL 76.7 -0.6 New Supply

San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 82.8 -0.7

Superbowl L 2016 / Moscone

Center Closed April – December

New York, NY 86.7 -1.4 New Supply

Philadelphia, PA-NJ 68.6 -1.7 DNC 2016

Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 67.0 -2.1

Prepping for SuperBowl LII.

Supply +3.5%

* December 2017 YTD ADR % Change and absolute OCC in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing ADR % Markets


Florida Markets RevPAR Change – Mainly ADR Driven

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Rev

PAR

% C

han

ge

ADR

Occupancy

2017 YE, Florida Market Occupancy and ADR % Change


Lee County Performance


Lee County Hotel Performance 2017

% Change

Room Supply 1.0%

Room Demand 4.0%

Occupancy 71.8% 3.0%

A.D.R. $151 1.0%

RevPAR $108 4.0%

Room Revenue 5.1%

YE 2017, Lee County, FL


Demand Growth Rebounds, Supply Growth on the Rise

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Supply % Change

Demand % Change

1%

Lee County., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/2013 – 12/2017

4%


ADR Growth Slowing but Steady

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Occupancy % Change

ADR % Change

Lee County, Occ & ADR % Change, 12 MMA 1/2013 – 12/2017


Monthly Occupancy Rates with YOY Percent Change

75.1%

83.7% 86.1%78.6%

64.6% 66.2% 68.6%

55.9% 58.2%

77.3% 75.9% 73.0%

January February March April May June July August September October November December

-4.1%

Lee County Occ Rates by Month 2017

-1.8% -2.7% 3.3% -0.5% -3.2%-5.6% 9.2% 12.4%22.9% 14.2%0.5%


Transient vs. Group Occupancy Trends

Lee County, FL – Customer Segmentation Occ (Luxury and Upper Upscale) Full Year 2012 – 2017

41.3%44.8%

50.9%52.7% 52.1%

53.4%

13.3% 14.3% 13.6%16.0% 15.9% 17.1%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Transient Group


Transient vs. Group ADR Trends

Lee County, FL – Customer Segmentation ADR (Luxury and Upper Upscale)

$136$138 $142

$154$158 $160

$103$108

$112

$119

$127 $129

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Transient Group


Comparative Markets


Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Growth Across All Counties

0.8

-1.1

1.0

4.5

3.2

-2.4

1.9

4.4

1.41.8

4.54.0

5.5

4.7

0.2

4.9

6.3

4.6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

BrowardCounty

CollierCounty

Lee County SarasotaCounty

Miami-DadeCounty

MonroeCounty

Palm BeachCounty

PinellasCounty

Florida

Supply Demand

Supply / Demand Percent Change; YE 2017


Healthy Occupancy Growth

0.9

5.7

3.0

1.0

1.4

2.6

3.0

1.9

3.2

1.8

0.2

1.0

2.3

-0.6 -0.7

2.7

3.2

2.6

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

BrowardCounty

CollierCounty


Miami-Dade MonroeCounty

Palm BeachCounty

PinellasCounty

Florida

Occ ADR

Occupancy / ADR Percent Change, YE 2017


RevPAR Growth in Most Florida Markets Exceeds USA 3.0% Average

2.8

5.8

4.0

3.3

0.8

2.0

5.8

5.1

5.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

BrowardCounty

CollierCounty


Miami-DadeCounty

MonroeCounty

Palm BeachCounty

PinellasCounty

Florida

RevPAR Percent Change, YE 2017


In Construction: Vertical construction on the physical building has begun.

Final Planning:Construction will begin within the next 12 months.

Planning:Construction will begin in more than 13 months.

Under Contract

Pipeline


US Pipeline: First Decline in I/C since the Recovery (Now for 3 Months Running)

Phase 2017 2016 % Change

In Construction 180 187 -3.7%

Final Planning 205 198 3.5%

Planning 202 174 16%

Under Contract 588 560 5%

*Total US Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, December 2017 and 2016


Limited Service Construction Is The Name Of The Game

8.6

22.4

53.5

62.7

11.7

1.9

19.2

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated*US Pipeline, Rooms In Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, December 2017

72%


Phase Projects Rooms

In Construction 109 14,525

Final Planning 153 21,250

Planning 154 26,853

Total Under Contract Pipeline

416 62,628

Total Florida Pipeline, by Project Phase January 2018

Total Florida Pipeline


Phase Projects Rooms

In Construction 0 0

Final Planning 4 600

Planning 4 380

Total Under Contract Pipeline

8 980

Lee County Pipeline, by Project Phase January 2018

Lee County - Increases in Supply to Come


Incoming Properties – Final Planning

Autograph Collection

Fort Myers Downtown

248 Rooms

Open Date: Dec 2019

Holiday Inn Fort Myers

148 Rooms

Open Date: March 2019

Fairfield Inn & Suites Bonita Springs

114 Rooms

Open Date: Sept 2019

Staybridge Suites

Fort Myers

90 Rooms

Open Date: May 2019

Lee County Construction Pipeline, January 2018


Forecast


Notable Calendar Shifts Impacting Lodging Performance Data in 2018:

Easter: Shift from April to March (also affects Q1/Q2)

Election Day 11/6: Likely low room demand the night before

Halloween: Shift from TUE to WED, likely impacting full week

Notable Market Level Events / Comps:

Super Bowl: From Houston To Minneapolis

San Francisco: Moscone Center Reopened, easy comps Q2/Q3

Washington, D.C.: Inauguration & Women’s March (January 2017)

Houston: Hurricane Harvey – October and all of Q4 2017

Florida: Hurricane Irma – October and all of Q4 2017

California: Wildfires in Q4 2017

Key Factors Going into 2018

As the economy goes, so goes the hotel industry

Eyes on interest-rate lifts, weakening dollar

Moderating new construction levels

Demand growth should compensate for tough 3rd & 4th quarter comps

Rate growth will continue, but it won’t be impressive

Can’t forecast a black-swan event

Total United StatesKey Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year)2017A – 2019F

Outlook

2017Actual

2018Forecast

2019Forecast

Supply 1.8% 2.0% 1.9%

Demand 2.7% 2.3% 2.0%

Occupancy 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

ADR 2.1% 2.4% 2.3%

RevPAR 3.0% 2.7% 2.4%

Source: STR


ADR Growth Balances out Negative Occ Growth

STR Lee County Forecast

2018Forecast

% Change

Occupancy 69.9% -2.5%

ADR $155 2.6%

RevPAR $108 0.0%

Questions?

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© 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

lee county hotel overview · nashville, tn 74.1 6.2 bachelorette parties orlando, fl 79.3 4.8...

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