Lecture Five

The Cold War Emerges

From Allies to Enemies

“If we see that Germany is winning the war we ought to help Russia, and if Russia is

winning we ought to help Germany and in that way let them kill as many as possible.”

Harry S. Truman, 1941

The Postwar Balance of Power

GNP, 1950

(billions)

Defense Spending,

1948

(billions)

United States $381 $10.9

Soviet Union $126 $13.1

Britain $71 $3.4

Germany $48 $0

Source: Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.

The Cold War Emerges1945-1947

Problems Arise First in Eastern Europe: The Yalta Conference

Soviets Want Sphere of Influence in Eastern Europe.

U.S. Wants Independent Democratic Governments in the Region

Soviets Have Military Advantage; Install Pro-Soviet Governments Throughout Region Between 1946-49

The Soviet PeripheryIran, 1946

Occupied by USSR & Britain in 1946; Troops to be W/drawn in 6 monthsSoviets Do Not Withdraw, and Begin to Pressure Iranian Government.U.S. Begins to Supply Weapons to Shah of Iran

Turkey, 1945-46Soviets Demand Control of DardanellesU.S. Sends Naval Task Force into Mediterranean

Greece, 1945-47Civil War Between Monarchists and Indigenous Communists

Soviet Expansion

The Conflict Intensifies1947-1949

The United StatesTruman Doctrine and Containment, March 12, 1947. Aid To Greece and Turkey Broader Strategic Agenda

The Marshall Plan, June 5, 1947. Foreign Aid to European Countries to

Assist Reconstruction and Prevent Communist Victories.

Marks the Beginning of the Partition of Europe.

The Soviet Union RespondsThe Berlin Blockade and Airlift, June 24, 1948 - May 12, 1949.Soviets Explode Atomic Bomb in 1949.

The United States RespondsNSC-68 and The Militarization of the US-Soviet Conflict.Ordered by Truman in Early 1950 in Response to Soviet A-Bomb.Evaluate Nature of Soviet Threat and US Policy Toward the Soviet Union.

NSC-68 Concludes That:USSR is Inherently ExpansionistExpansion Fuelled by Messianic Faith that was Antithetical to American Way of Life.Containment would Require Global Offensive Against Soviet Bloc.Advocated Substantial U.S. Rearmament

The Korean WarKorea Had Been Partitioned Between U.S. and USSR in 1945.In Summer of 1950 North Korea Invades South Korea.U.S. Responds By Mobilizing UN and Pursuing War Against North Korea.Broader Implications: Appears to Confirm Soviet

Expansionism Could This Happen in Europe? Leads to Militarization of

Superpower Conflict in Europe.

Consequences of the Cold War

The Division of Europe

Division of Rest of the World into Three BlocksEast, West, Non-Aligned Movement

All International Conflicts Viewed through Cold War Prism

UN Rendered Ineffective

What Was the Cold War About?

Traditionalists: Soviet Expansionism

Revisionists: American Expansionism

Post-Revisionists: Bipolar Power Structure

One Puzzling Question:

Why No War Between USSR and US?