lecture -- 7 -- startsuper7/51011-52001/51491.pdf · 2014-01-31 · lecture -- 7 -- start. outline...

Lecture -- 7 -- Start

Outline

1. Science, Method & Measurement2. On Building An Index3. Correlation & Causality4. Probability & Statistics5. Samples & Surveys6. Experimental & Quasi-experimental Designs7. Conceptual Models8. Quantitative Models9. Complexity & Chaos10. Recapitulation - Envoi

Quantitative Techniques for Social Science Research

Ismail SerageldinAlexandria

2012

Lecture # 7:Conceptual Models

Our World Is One Of Rapid Social Change

AND IN MANY PARTS OF THE WORLD …

DEATH IS A DAILY AFFAIR…

So Let’s Design A Conceptual Model Of Social Change

A Model of Social Change:

Understanding the Dynamics

CULTURAL ASPECTS

PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN

NEW SOCIAL POSITION

VALUES INSTITUTIONS

START POSITION

CULTURAL ASPECTS

ECONOMIC STRUCTURE


NEW SOCIAL POSITION

VALUES INSTITUTIONS

START POSITION

CULTURAL ASPECTS

SOCIAL STRUCTURE

ECONOMIC STRUCTURE


NEW SOCIAL POSITION

VALUES INSTITUTIONS

START POSITION

CULTURAL ASPECTS

SOCIAL STRUCTURE

ECONOMIC STRUCTURE


NEW SOCIAL POSITION

VALUES INSTITUTIONS

START POSITION

TRANSACTIONS

CULTURAL ASPECTS

SOCIAL STRUCTURE

ECONOMIC STRUCTURE


NEW SOCIAL POSITION

SOCIAL CHANGE

VALUES INSTITUTIONS

START POSITION

TRANSACTIONS

CULTURAL ASPECTS

SOCIAL STRUCTURE

ECONOMIC STRUCTURE


NEW SOCIAL POSITION

SOCIAL CHANGE

VALUES INSTITUTIONS

START POSITION

TRANSACTIONS

EXTERNAL INFLUENCES

EXTERNAL INFLUENCES

Within This Process

• Change is being accelerated• External drivers of change are

increasingly important• The cultural dimension is where and

how the mediation with the new and the external occurs

• Culture cannot be underestimated

A Sub -Model Of Cultural Change:

Understanding the Dynamics

A Three -Tiered Model

Explaining Cultural Dynamics and How Cultures Change

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Theoretical Ethics

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Theoretical Ethics

Practical Ethics

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Theoretical Ethics

Practical Ethics

Social Praxis

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Theoretical Ethics

Practical Ethics

Social Praxis

Social Values

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Theoretical Ethics

Practical Ethics

Social Praxis

Social Values

Individual Behavior

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Theoretical Ethics

Practical Ethics

Social Praxis

Social Values

Individual Behavior

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Quran

Theoretical Ethics

Practical Ethics

Social Praxis

Social Values

Individual Behavior

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Quran

Sunna of the Prophet

Theoretical Ethics

Practical Ethics

Social Praxis

Social Values

Individual Behavior

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Quran

Sunna of the ProphetGreek and Latin influences

Theoretical Ethics

Practical Ethics

Social Praxis

Social Values

Individual Behavior

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Quran


Local Influences

Theoretical Ethics

Practical Ethics

Social Praxis

Social Values

Individual Behavior

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Quran


Local Influences

Modernizing Influences

Theoretical Ethics

Practical Ethics

Social Praxis

Social Values

Individual Behavior

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Quran


Local Influences


Physical Change

Theoretical Ethics

Practical Ethics

Social Praxis

Social Values

Individual Behavior

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Quran


Local Influences

Education


Physical Change

Theoretical Ethics

Practical Ethics

Social Praxis

Social Values

Individual Behavior

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Quran


Local Influences

Mass Media

Education


Physical Change

Theoretical Ethics

Practical Ethics

Social Praxis

Social Values

Individual Behavior

Intellectual Domain

Perceptual Domain

Physical Domain

Quran


Local Influences

New Ideas

Mass Media

Education


Physical Change

Transactions and Trust

Transactions And Trust

CULTURAL ASPECTS

SOCIAL STRUCTURE

ECONOMIC STRUCTURE


NEW SOCIAL POSITION

SOCIAL CHANGE

VALUES INSTITUTIONS

START POSITION

TRANSACTIONS

EXTERNAL INFLUENCES

EXTERNAL INFLUENCES

Transactions

There was outstanding work done on this by Coleman in his magisterial Foundations of

Social Theory

James S. Coleman(1926 – 1995)

Barter Exchange

A B

g + s

g + s

Exchange with Promise to Pay

g + s

Pa

A B Time 1

g + s

Pa

A B Time 2

Exchange with third party promise to pay

g + s

Pa

A B Time 1

g + s

Pa

B C Time 2

g + s

Pa

A C Time 3

Exchange with promise of a Central Bank

g + s g + s

g + s g + s

A Central Bank

E

B D

C

Pa Pa

Pa Pa

Pa Pa

Pb Pd

Cashless System with Central Clearinghouse

B

E

A

C

D

g + s g + s

g + s g + s g + s

g + s

Clearinghouse

Role of Party Machine in Political Exchange

Legislation

Votes for reelection

Votes for legislators

Money and jobs

Legislation

Money

Machine

Voters

Business Legislators

Party Machine as Credit Institution in the Political System

Money

Voters

Business Legislation Legislators

VotesMachineas a clearinghouse of credit

Transaction involving voters, TV, interest groups and legislative candidates

Voters

Interest groups

Television

Legislative candidates

Performers

Entertainment

Attention of voters

Money

Promises

Votes

Money

Attention of voters

Entertainment

Access PromisesMoney

Cultural Transactions

Tipping Points

Systems crash when you cross Tipping Points

Testing Steel Rods

Apply Tension,

Pull on them till they break

Stress(load)

Strain(elongate)

Effe

ctiv

enes

s

Number of Connections

Effe

ctiv

enes

s

Tipping Point


Effe

ctiv

enes

s

Tipping Point


AnotherTippingPoint ?

The Problem

• We are not sure of the shape of the graph

• Is it the whole graph we are looking at?

• We don’t know where we are on the graph!

For example:

But we need to start…

• But we have to start somewhere…• We need the work being done on

sustainable indicators now• Incomplete knowledge is better than

no knowledge at all• So lets improve…

BUT…

Purely descriptive models can help in basic understanding of

possible causalities and identification of likely

intervention points

Predictive models are needed for policy analysis. This requires quantification.

Quantitative Analysis complements Qualitative

analysis and frequently under-girds it.

Measuring Trust in Transactions

Can we quantify such things as trust ?

Can we model it?

Trust-worthiness

and potential loss and potential

gain

Probability Probability Probability Probability

of of of of

trustworthinesstrustworthinesstrustworthinesstrustworthiness

Potential loss / potential gain

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

00 2 4 6 8 10

Confidence mean

Brother

Friend

Lover

Formula for potential Loss/Gain

P = chance of receiving gain (the probability that the trustee is trustworthy)

L = potential loss (if trustee is untrustworthy)

G = potential gain (if trustee is trustworthy)

Decision: yes if P is greater than L

1-P G

indifferent if P equals L

1-P G

no if P is less than L

1-P G

Trust in Government

Economic growth and trust in Government are closely related

Trust in Government4.5

4

3.5

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

00-4 -2 2 4 6 8

Growth of per capita GDP (percent per year)

Russia1995

Czech Republic

1995x

x

Social Capital and Social Integration and Disintegration

Topics for another discussion

For Now…

Are we sinking? Or Swimming?

We want everyone swimming

We want to all fly together…

Thank You

lecture -- 7 -- startsuper7/51011-52001/51491.pdf · 2014-01-31 · lecture -- 7 -- start. outline...

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