lecture 3-we don't tenure mother teresa · we don’t tenure mother teresa 1. the climate...

4/15/16

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DanielKammen

Classof1935Distinguished Professor ofEnergyEnergyandResources Group |Goldman School of

Public PolicyDirector, Renewable andAppropriate Energy

LaboratoryUniversity ofCalifornia, Berkeley

April 11,2016

Lecture 3:We Don’t Tenure Mother Teresa

1.Theclimatecrisis reinvented (3.28.2016)Klein, chapters1&2|Optional:Dove&Kammen,chapter1

2.Ourmistrustofthefuturemakesithardtogiveupthepast (4.4.16)Klein, chapters3|Optional:Dove&Kammen,chapter5

3.Wedon’ttenureMotherTeresa (4.11.2016)Klein, chapter9|Optional:Dove&Kammen,chapter2

4.Whatarethebarriers toaction? (4.18.2016)Klein, chapter6- 8|

5.Aneweconomicsoftheplanet (4.25.2016)Klein, chapter4|Optional:Dove&Kammen,chapter3;Klein12

6.Pasteur’sQuadrant (5.2.2016)Klein, chapter7,11|Optional:Dove&Kammen,chapter4

Homework #1:Dueinclass forL#3List oneitem raisedbyKleinin Chapters1– 3whereyou:

a)wantmoreinformation

b)haveastrongfactual agreement ordisagreement

c)haveastrongvisceralagreementordisagreement

(b)isoptionalTwitter:@dan_kammen

Website:http://rael.berkeley.edu

Resources:

ArevolutiononclimatepoliticsU.S.-China JointAnnouncementon ClimateChange Born AgnesGonxha Bojaxhiu inMacedonia in1910

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Laudato SiEncyclical Letteron CareforourCommon Home

UNGeneralAssemblyresolution65/151rael.berkeley.eduOctober 2011

EnergyPoverty:There are 1.4 billion people lacking access to electricity todayBased on current trends, 1.2 billion people will still lack access in 2030 Another 1+ billion have intermittent/unreliable access

International Energy Agency, 2010

Fig.3

9 UN General Assembly resolution 65/151rael.berkeley.edu

Liter of Light

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151rael.berkeley.edu

Technological and Entrepreneurial Opportunity: Lighting Africa

QuantitativeAssessments:EnergyandHumanDevelopmentSustainableEnergyforAll(UN)

Literacy

Mortality(Children)

Poverty

Education

Mortality(Infants)

Sanitation

Goldemberg (1979),

updated byAlstone,Gershenson &Kammen,NatureClimateChange

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ER1 0 0 - Lectu re 5 Pag e 1 3

Biomass Resources andUse


Otherapproaches


source: WHO, 1999

23.7%

10.7%

Resp. Infections

6.5%N.C. Respiratory

5.6%

30.9%

Cardiovascular

Resp. Tract Cancer

4.1%Diarrheal Diseases

Malaria

Other

Injur ies

4%Perinatal Conditions

Childhood Diseases3.1%

4.2% HIV / AIDS

TB2.8%

Total54 M

TheGlobal Distribution ofDisease(Mortality)


GlobalDistributionofDisease:Mortality


source: WHO, 1999

32.9%

16%

Resp. Infections

6.2%N.C. Respiratory

4.5%

10.3%

Cardiovascular

Resp. Tract Cancer

5.3%

Diarrheal Diseases

2.8%Malaria

4.2%

Depression

Other

Injur ies

5.8%Perinatal Conditions

Childhood Diseases4.1%

5.1% HIV / AIDS

TB

Total1.4 B

TheGlobal Distribution ofDisease (DALY)DALY = disability

adjusted life year(= healthy years)


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19

HotTopic:KeroseneforLighting

Source: Lam et al., EST (2012)

• 7-9%ofkerosenebecomeblackcarbon(BC--strongforcer)– Warmingof1kgofBC=700kgofCO2over100years

• Loworganiccarbonemissions(OC)• Lungfunction,asthma,cancerrisks


Biomass Resources andUseTime/Activity/Personal Exposure Daily Histories


0 - 5 5 - 15 15 - 50 > 50

Demographic Subgroups

Aver

age

PM10

Expo

sure

(µg

/ m3 )

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

F M F M F M F M

Exposure Calculated Using AverageEmissions at One Point

N = 342

Underestimation from ActualExposure (% Total)

35% 41%

73%

47%

81%

59%

67%

52%

TheEffect ofExposure Patterns


PM10

Conc

entra

tion

(µg

/ m3 )

Stove-Fuel Combination

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

3-Stone Ceramic Wood Old Charcoal New Charcoal

n=105

n=16

n=6

Recall: OECD do-not-exceed PM10 standards are 50 - 150 µg/m3

Stove and Fuel Comparison (Average Emissions)


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

F M F M F M F M F M3-Stone, Inside Ceramic, Inside Charcoal, Inside 3-Stone, Outside Ceramic, Outside

MeanLower 95% confidence interval

Upper 95% confidence interval

47%

38%

95% 83%

52%

74%

74%

79%

Age group: 15 - 49 years (n = 120)

Exposure in Rural Kenya: Age and Gender

Ezzati and Kammen (1995 - 2002):http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~rael/papers.html#cook ER1 0 0 - Lectu re 5 Pag e 2 4

% I

ncre

ase i

n Hos

pital

Adm

issio

ns

PM Concentration (µg / m3)

• Valid for Concentrations below 200 µg / m3

WHO Air Quality Guidelines , 1999

0

20

40

60

0 50 100 150 200

PM10

PM2.5

Developed Country Studies

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Prob

abilit

y (A

RI)

Average Daily Exposure (µg / m3)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

Charcoal

Ceramic Wood Stoves3-Stone Fire

Illness Reduction ObservedinKenya(ARI=acuterespiratoryinfection)

All ARI

ALRI, Lower respiratoryInfections only

$0.01

$0.10

$1.00

$10.00

$100.00

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Cumulative Capacity Installed (MW)

Capi

tal C

ost (

2004

$/W

att)

PV1975-03

Wind1981-01

Sol. ThermalElec. 1985-91

NOx controls1974-03

Ethanol 1978-96

Nuclear1970-96

86025EnergySystemsAnalysis ArnulfGrubler

LearningRatesof108Technologies

45 20 10 -10

Freq

uenc

y (%

)

Learning rate40 35 30 25 15 5 0 -5

15

10

5

0

Positive learning

Negativelearning

Sourc e: Argote&Epple, 1990

Negative learning:Lockheed TristarFrench nuclear reactors

AREAREQUIRED..tosupply50%ofU.S.Passengervehiclemiles

JBStraubel, Tes laMotors28

Homework #1:Dueinclass forL#3List oneitem raisedbyKleinin Chapters1– 3whereyou:

a)wantmoreinformation

b)haveastrongfactual agreement ordisagreement

c)haveastrongvisceralagreementordisagreement

(b)isoptional

lecture 3-we don't tenure mother teresa · we don’t tenure mother teresa 1. the climate...

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