lecture 3 - population and economic growth
TRANSCRIPT
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8/11/2019 Lecture 3 - Population and Economic Growth
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 1 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTSABOUT POPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THE
LONG RUNC.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
A.SOME FACTS ABOUT POPULATION
The Most Populated Countries of the World (2012)
Source:http://www.nationsonline.org/
http://www.nationsonline.org/http://www.nationsonline.org/http://www.nationsonline.org/http://www.nationsonline.org/ -
8/11/2019 Lecture 3 - Population and Economic Growth
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 2 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTSABOUT POPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THE
LONG RUNC.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
The Most Densely Populated Nations of the World (2012)
Source:http://www.nationsonline.org/
http://www.nationsonline.org/http://www.nationsonline.org/http://www.nationsonline.org/http://www.nationsonline.org/ -
8/11/2019 Lecture 3 - Population and Economic Growth
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 3 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTSABOUT POPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THE
LONG RUNC.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
World Population Density Map (people/km2)
Source:www.worldometers.info
More data athttp://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
http://www.worldometers.info/http://www.worldometers.info/http://www.worldometers.info/http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/http://www.worldometers.info/ -
8/11/2019 Lecture 3 - Population and Economic Growth
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 4 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS
ABOUT POPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
The United Nations World Population Estimates
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 5 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTSABOUT POPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 6 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTSABOUT POPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
Relationship between Income per Capita and Population
Growth
Strong negativecorrelation
It is not easy to fully comprehend this underlying relationship
(difficult to disentangle causality)
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 7 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION AND
OUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
B.POPULATION AND OUTPUT OVER THE LONG RUN
World Population: 10,000BC to 2010AD
Period Average growth10,000BC-1AD 0.04%
1-1800AD 0.09%1801-1900AD 0.6%1901-1950AD 0.9%1951-2000AD 1.8%
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 8 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION AND
OUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAINING
POPULATION GROWTHG.RELATEDLITERATURE
Can the populations grow persistently?
The Malthusian Model
Developed by Thomas Malthus (1798)
Key arguments:
Human can breed at a rapid rate, but scare resourcessuch as land limitpopulation growth
Population tends to grow in affluent societies. As population grows, the
availability of land per capita falls, and people become poorer. Hence,people are better off with lower population density
Poverty will limit population growth, and the society will reach a level ofincome commensurate with constant population
(1776-1834)
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 9 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THE
LONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
2 mechanisms that restrict population to expand:
(1) Positive Check: limited resources reduce population(2)
Preventive Check: reduction of fertility to prevent poverty
Positive Check raises the death rate through famine, disease and war(which could afflict volatile economic cycles) -Malthusian catastrophe
Preventive Checklowers the birth rate through abortion, birth control,postponement of marriage (which ensures a higher standard of living forall and lead to economic stability) -Moral restraint
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 10 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION AND
OUTPUT OVER THE
LONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
Graphical Representation of the Model
Point AHigh yLgrows (n>0)
(
)
()Point BLow yLshrinks (n
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 11 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION AND
OUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAINING
POPULATION GROWTHG.RELATEDLITERATURE
Effect of Productivity Improvement
Consider thenew arrival of a
new crop
The income-population lineshifts right
At eachpopulation level,y is now higher
At point B, ( > 0) > 0 At the newsteady state(point C),Lhas
increased whileyremainsunchanged
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 12 | P a g e
Exer c i se
According to the Malthusian Model, if the size of the population is
below its steady-state level, and a disease strikes which furtherreduces the size of the population, what would be the effect on thegrowth rate of population? Show the effect on a diagram.
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 13 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THE
LONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
Malthus ruled out other solutions, such as the notion that agriculturalimprovements could expand without limit.
If improvements in productivity will notmake people better off, thenwhat will?
Preventive Check(Moral Restraint) by restricting births is the only
way in which a society can raise its standard of living
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 14 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THE
LONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
Effect of Moral Restraint in the Malthusian Model
By implementingmoral restraint,the income-population growthline shifts right
nis now lower at
each income level(y)
At the new steadystate (point C),there is apermanentreduction inLbutan increase in y
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HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 15 | P a g e
Exer c i se
Consider a Malthusian model in which the equation that relates the
population growth rate () to income per capita () is:
Letbe the total quantity of land in the economy, which is fixed. Let bethe quantity of land per capita (so that =/). The function that relatesland per capita and income per capita is:
whereis a measure of productivity.(a) Suppose thatis constant. What will the steady-state level of income percapita be?
(b) Now suppose that grows at the rate of 10% per year (i.e., = 0.1).What will be the steady-state level of income per capita?
= 100100
=
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 16 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OFTHE MALTHUSIANMODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
C.BREAKDOWN OF THE MALTHUSIAN MODEL
Income growth and population growth in in Western Europe
The Malthusian model predicts that standards of living will remain
constant over time, even in the face of technological progress.It also assumes that higher income raises the growth rate of population(positive correlation)
Evidence presented above contradicts this thesis. Clearly, the richestcountries in the world have the lowest rates of population growth.
Negative
correlation
since 1820!
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 17 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THESOLOW MODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
D.POPULATION GROWTH IN THE SOLOW MODEL
Does the fact that the Malthusian model no longer works mean thatpopulation would have no effect on income per capita?
NO. (1) Population is still an important (though not dominant) factor forunderstanding income differences
(2) The effect of population on income can work through a differentchannel capitalin the Solow Model
Malthusian model focuses on the levels of the population
Solow model focuses on the growth rate of the population
Capital dilutionoccurs when population growth results in less capitalavailable for each worker
This would lead to a decline in output per capita (as we have seen in theprevious lecture)
We can use the Solow model to examine the effect of capital dilution onoutput
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 18 | P a g e
Exer c i se
An increase in population growth would affect the dynamics of the Solowmodel in the same way as an increase in: the level of technology / the rateof depreciation / efficiency / the rate of investment
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THESOLOW MODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
Reproducing the steady-state relation (or the change in capital function)
=() where is the change in the level of capital per worker, is thefraction of output invested, is the depreciation rate, and()is theproduction function.
Defining nas the growth rate of the labor force, incorporating the effect of
capital dilution () gives:
=()
=() (+ )
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 19 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THESOLOW MODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
The Solow Model Incorporating Population Growth
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 20 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
Consider a Cobb-Douglas production function:
() =
Using the steady-state relation derived earlier:
=
(
)
(
+
)
The condition for the steady state is therefore:
= ( + )
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 21 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION AND
OUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAINING
POPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
Solving this equation to give the stead-state level of capital per worker:
= + 11
And the stead-state level of output per worker can be given as:
=() =1/(1) +
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 22 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION AND
OUTPUT OVER THE
LONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
To calculate the effect of population growth, consider 2 countries with thesame level of productivity (A), depreciation rate () and investment rate(), but different population growth rate (n).
Their steady-state output is given as:
Country i: =1/(
1)
+
Countryj: =1/(1) +
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 23 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION AND
OUTPUT OVER THE
LONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
Income per worker in country irelative to that of countryjis:
=++
Suppose = 1/3, country ihas a population growth rate of 0% whereascountry j has a population growth rate of 4%, both countries have thesame depreciation rate of 5%, their income ratio would be:
=0.04+0.050.05 1/2
= 1.34
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 24 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION AND
OUTPUT OVER THE
LONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATIONGROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
F.EXPLAINING POPULATION GROWTH
Changes in the growth rates of population can be explained bydemographic transition
This process is largely complete in the richest countries in the world but isstill ongoing in much of the developing world
Demographic Transition: the process by which a countrysdemographic (population) characteristics are transformed as itdevelops
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HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 25 | P a g e
Qu i z
Suppose in Country A, 1/3 of the people die at birth and 2/3 of thepeople die at age 60. What is the life expectancy in Country A?
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION
GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
Mortality transition
Refers to the declinein the prevalence of death (often measured bylife expectancy at birth)
Its reduction is due to:(1) better standard of living;(2) improvements in public health measures; and(3) advancement in medical treatments in curing diseases
Fertility transition
Refers to the decreasingfertility rates
Fertility rate is the number of children that a woman would have ifshe lived through all of her childbearing years
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HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 26 | P a g e
Exer c i se
Using data in EG.dta, analyze the relationship between initial life
expectancy (lifeex75) and the subsequent average population growthrate (gpop).
Exer c i se
Using data in EG.dta, analyze the relationship between initial fertilityrate (tfr75) and the subsequent average population growth rate(gpop).
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THE
LONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION
GROWTHG.RELATEDLITERATURE
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 27 | P a g e
Exer c i se
Suppose in Country X, 1/3 of the people die at birth and 2/3 of thepeople die at age 60. What is the life expectancy in Country X?
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THE
LONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION
GROWTHG.RELATEDLITERATURE
Life Expectancy in Developed Countries
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 28 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION ANDOUTPUT OVER THE
LONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION
GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
Total Fertility Rate in the United States, 18602008
High population growth rate in the developing world is due to the fact thatmortality rates have fallen faster than fertility rates
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 29 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION AND
OUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
G.RELATED LITERATURE
Madsen, Ang & Banerjee (2010)
Four Centuries of British Economic Growth: The Roles of Technologyand Population, Journal of Economic Growth [LINK]
Using long historical data for Britain over the period 1620-2006, this paper seeksto explain the importance of innovative activity, population growth and otherfactors in inducing the transition from the Malthusian trap to the post-Malthusiangrowth regime.
Ashraf and Galor (2011)
Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch, AmericanEconomic Review [LINK]
This paper examines the central hypothesis of the influential Malthusian theory,according to which improvements in the technological environment during the
pre-industrial era had generated only temporary gains in income per capita,eventually leading to a larger, but not significantly richer, population.
http://eds.b.ebscohost.com/eds/results?sid=9a8f97aa-8ba3-4be1-962e-41f08778b874%40sessionmgr110&vid=4&hid=102&bquery=(Four+AND+Centuries)+AND+%22of%22+AND+(British+AND+Economic+AND+Growth%3a+AND+The+AND+Roles)+AND+%22of%22+AND+Technology+AND+Population&bdata=JmRiPWJ1aCZ0eXBlPTAmc2l0ZT1lZHMtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRlhttp://eds.b.ebscohost.com/eds/results?sid=9a8f97aa-8ba3-4be1-962e-41f08778b874%40sessionmgr110&vid=5&hid=102&bquery=Dynamics+AND+Stagnation+AND+%22in%22+AND+(the+AND+Malthusian+AND+Epoch)&bdata=JmRiPWJ1aCZ0eXBlPTAmc2l0ZT1lZHMtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRlhttp://eds.b.ebscohost.com/eds/results?sid=9a8f97aa-8ba3-4be1-962e-41f08778b874%40sessionmgr110&vid=5&hid=102&bquery=Dynamics+AND+Stagnation+AND+%22in%22+AND+(the+AND+Malthusian+AND+Epoch)&bdata=JmRiPWJ1aCZ0eXBlPTAmc2l0ZT1lZHMtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRlhttp://eds.b.ebscohost.com/eds/results?sid=9a8f97aa-8ba3-4be1-962e-41f08778b874%40sessionmgr110&vid=5&hid=102&bquery=Dynamics+AND+Stagnation+AND+%22in%22+AND+(the+AND+Malthusian+AND+Epoch)&bdata=JmRiPWJ1aCZ0eXBlPTAmc2l0ZT1lZHMtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRlhttp://eds.b.ebscohost.com/eds/results?sid=9a8f97aa-8ba3-4be1-962e-41f08778b874%40sessionmgr110&vid=4&hid=102&bquery=(Four+AND+Centuries)+AND+%22of%22+AND+(British+AND+Economic+AND+Growth%3a+AND+The+AND+Roles)+AND+%22of%22+AND+Technology+AND+Population&bdata=JmRiPWJ1aCZ0eXBlPTAmc2l0ZT1lZHMtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRl -
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LECTURE 3:POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HE4005 Growth Theory and Empirics 30 | P a g e
A.SOME FACTS ABOUTPOPULATION
B.POPULATION AND
OUTPUT OVER THELONG RUN
C.BREAKDOWN OF THEMALTHUSIAN MODEL
D.POPULATIONGROWTH IN THE SOLOWMODEL
E.AQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS
F.EXPLAININGPOPULATION GROWTH
G.RELATEDLITERATURE
Chen and Kung (2013)
Of Maize and Men: The Effect of a New World Crop on Population and
Economic Growth in China [LINK]
This paper finds that the adoption of maize accounted for 18% of the populationincrease in China during 1776-1910, but had no significant effect on economicgrowth. These findings lend empirical support to the theoretical claim that underthe Malthusian regime a new technology could only bring about population butnot economic growth.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2102295http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2102295http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2102295