Lecture 22:Lecture 22:Everything You Everything You

Always Wanted to Always Wanted to Know About Know About Central Asia*Central Asia*

*but were afraid to ask*but were afraid to askFebruary 27, 2009February 27, 2009

Central AsiaCentral Asia

Central Asia Fun FactsCentral Asia Fun Facts Poorest part of USSR; GDP/capita: Poorest part of USSR; GDP/capita:

Kazakhstan $12,000Kazakhstan $12,000Kyrgyzstan $2,200Kyrgyzstan $2,200Tajikistan $1,800Tajikistan $1,800Turkmenistan $5,800Turkmenistan $5,800

Uzbekistan $2,700 Uzbekistan $2,700 (US $48,000) (US $48,000)

Monocultures: cultivation of a single crop Monocultures: cultivation of a single crop Mostly Muslim: Kaz (47%)-Turkmen (89%)Mostly Muslim: Kaz (47%)-Turkmen (89%) Nations and borders artificial creations of 20Nations and borders artificial creations of 20thth

centurycentury USSR provided homelandsUSSR provided homelands Thrust into independence in 1991Thrust into independence in 1991

Democratize?Democratize?

““Transition theory” of western Transition theory” of western governments and INGOs: autocracy governments and INGOs: autocracy ends, transition beginsends, transition begins

Literacy ~99%, women’s rightsLiteracy ~99%, women’s rights Resources: oil, cotton, gold, uraniumResources: oil, cotton, gold, uranium IMF, western economists advisedIMF, western economists advised

No.No.

Why Not Democracy?Why Not Democracy?

Low incomeLow income Weak civil societyWeak civil society Resource curseResource curse Bad neighborsBad neighbors Decline in economic security, human Decline in economic security, human

developmentdevelopment USSR had generous welfare stateUSSR had generous welfare state End of subsidiesEnd of subsidies Loss of investment and export marketsLoss of investment and export markets

unemploymentunemployment Corruption Corruption

Bad leaders Bad leaders

Parade Magazine’s List of WorseParade Magazine’s List of Worse Dictators—2006 Dictators—2006

1) Omar al-Bashir, Sudan. Age 62. In power since 19891) Omar al-Bashir, Sudan. Age 62. In power since 19892) Kim Jong-il, North Korea. Age 63. In power since 19942) Kim Jong-il, North Korea. Age 63. In power since 19943) Than Shwe, Burma (Myanmar). Age 72. In power since 3) Than Shwe, Burma (Myanmar). Age 72. In power since

1992. 1992. 4) Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe. Age 81. In power since 4) Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe. Age 81. In power since

1980.1980.5) 5) Islam KarimovIslam Karimov, Uzbekistan. Age 67. In power since , Uzbekistan. Age 67. In power since

1990. 1990. 6) Hu Jintao, China. Age 63. In power since 2002. 6) Hu Jintao, China. Age 63. In power since 2002. 7) King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia. Age 82. In power since 7) King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia. Age 82. In power since

1995. 1995. 8) 8) Saparmurat NiyazovSaparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenistan. Age 65. In , Turkmenistan. Age 65. In

power since 1990. power since 1990. 9) Seyed Ali Khameini, Iran. Age 66. In power since 1989.9) Seyed Ali Khameini, Iran. Age 66. In power since 1989.10) Teodoro Obiang Nguema, Equatorial Guinea. Age 63. 10) Teodoro Obiang Nguema, Equatorial Guinea. Age 63.

In power since 1979.In power since 1979.

Nation-buildingNation-building

No pre-Soviet national identityNo pre-Soviet national identity Nationalism for presidential Nationalism for presidential

legitimacylegitimacy Rewrote history booksRewrote history books Adopted “national” symbolsAdopted “national” symbols

Nation-buildingNation-building

Pipeline Politics in the Pipeline Politics in the Caspian BasinCaspian Basin

What they want:What they want: US: diversify sources, help US US: diversify sources, help US

companies, isolate Russia, Iran companies, isolate Russia, Iran use Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipelineuse Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline

Russia: obligations to Europe, Russia: obligations to Europe, maintain “sphere of influence”maintain “sphere of influence”

China: as much oil/gas as possibleChina: as much oil/gas as possible Iran: not be isolatedIran: not be isolated Central Asia: not be dependent, $$$Central Asia: not be dependent, $$$

US Bases in Central AsiaUS Bases in Central Asia

Support Afghanistan operations, “lily Support Afghanistan operations, “lily pad” strategy, wean former Soviet pad” strategy, wean former Soviet states off Russiastates off Russia

Russia first accepted, then demurredRussia first accepted, then demurred US alliance with Uzbek dictator Islam US alliance with Uzbek dictator Islam

KarimovKarimov Andijan massacre Andijan massacre Base closed Base closed Now what…?Now what…?

What Can We Learn from What Can We Learn from Central Asia?Central Asia?

Transition paradigm wrongTransition paradigm wrong The art of faking democracyThe art of faking democracy US foreign policy: interests vs. US foreign policy: interests vs.

principleprinciple Muslim world diverseMuslim world diverse How we conceptualize regions How we conceptualize regions

mattersmatters