lecture 1 - february 4 2015
TRANSCRIPT
8/9/2019 Lecture 1 - February 4 2015
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PPOL‐G 704 Research
Methods IIPublic Policy PhD program
Department of Public Policy and Public AffairsMichael P. Johnson, PhD
Spring 2015
8/9/2019 Lecture 1 - February 4 2015
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8/9/2019 Lecture 1 - February 4 2015
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Readings and lecture design• Required readings
• In bookstore:
• Stokey, Elizabeth and Richard Zeckhauser. 1978. A Primer
for
Policy
Analysis. New York: W. W. Norton & Company.
• Hedrick, Terry E., Bickman, Leonard and Debra J. Rog. 1993. Applied
Research Design: A Practical Guide. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE
Publications.
• On Blackboard:
• Research papers and book excerpts
• Lecture format
•
Discussion of readings (60 – 90 minutes)• Discussion of assignments/paper components (60 – 90 minutes)
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Administrative details• Web resources
•
Accommodations• Written work
• Student conduct F e b r u a r y 4 ,
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Course paper requirements• A contemporary, policy-relevant problem
• A theoretical framework that generates propositions or
hypotheses that may be rigorously evaluated• Collection of data, from secondary and/or primary sources
• Support for propositions or hypotheses using models and
methods from core Public Policy PhD program courses, or
other well-known methods
• Discussion of significance of findings, limitations of analysis
and next steps
• 15 – 25 pages, 1.5-spaced, exclusive of figures, tables,
references and appendices
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Paper milestones• February 18: Paper prospectus
•
March 4: Literature review and theory development• April 8: Data sources and analytic methods
• April 15: Paper outline
• April 29: Preliminary findings
• May 18: Final presentation
• May 22: Final paper
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Introduction to Policy Choices• Stokey and Zeckhauser provide a normative, rationalist view of
policy analysis
• Is this reasonable? Appropriate? In what contexts?
• What other frameworks of policy analysis seem appropriate to
your research worldview?
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Policy Analytic Framework • Establish the context
•
Identify alternatives• Predict consequences
• Value outcomes
• Make a choice
• How do these steps conform to your own experience, or
intuition?
•How might you apply these steps to your own chosen researchtopics?
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Key Notions for ‘Rational’
Policy Research• Identify alternatives
• Build models
• Multiple objectives, multiple stakeholders
• Role of uncertainty
•
Practice model-building
• Consider a policy problem that is important to you. How
important are (should be) these concerns?
• How might one practice policy analysis in day-to-day life?
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Introduction to Models• A model is a simplified representation of some aspect of the
real world
• Models enable an analyst to identify the consequences of
particular policy choices
• Types of models:
• Physical model• Diagrammatic model
• Conceptual model
• What models have you encountered?
• How might you represent a problem of interest to you in
terms of models?
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Model Classes• Descriptive model
• Prescriptive model
• Deterministic model
• Probabilistic model
What is the ‘right’ model?
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Model: Property value impacts
of foreclosed housing
• p: foreclosed property
• h1, h2: proximate properties
• y1, y2: discounts on value of
proximate properties due to
proximity to p
• C: Current on mortgage
• DQ: Delinquent on mortgage• DF: Mortgage in default
• FC: Foreclosure
• REO: Real-estate owned
Source: Johnson, M.P., Solak, S., Drew, R.B. and J. Keisler. 2013. Property Value Impacts of Foreclosed Housing Acquisitions
under Uncertainty. Socio‐Economic Planning Sciences 47(4): 292 – 308..
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Model: Heroin‐using population
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Model: Equipment replacement
decision
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Source: Stokey and Zeckhauser, p. 10
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Model: Social networks
Source: Zheng, K., Padman, R., Krackhardt, D., Johnson, M.P. and H.S. Diamond. 2010. Social Networks and Physician Adoption
of Electronic Health Records: Insights from a Pilot Study. Journal
of
the
American
Medical
Informatics
Association
17: 328 –336.
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Benefits and Costs of Models• Benefits
• Focus on essential features of a complex situation
• Allows experimentation
• Facilitates communication
• ….
• Costs
• Complexity
• Difficulty in establishing causality
• Misuse
• …
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Semester paper• Primary goal of course is to write a complete, scholarly paper
• Reflects increased importance of completed scholarship in
doctoral study in advance of dissertation proposal• What ideas do you have about a topic for your semester
paper?
Semester paper first assignment (due February 18):
Paper prospectus (1 page):
Topic
Goal
Research question
Data
Methods
Anticipated research questions
Research significance
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Semester project issues• Motivation: What is the importance of the problem you will study?
Of the findings you hope to derive?
• Theory: Can you present a stylized representation of the real-world
phenomenon you will study?• Methods: Will your paper use one analytic method, or more than
one?
• Data:
•
Will your paper use one data source, or more than one?• Will your paper use primary data, secondary data, or both?
• Analysis:
• Will you present descriptive, exploratory, prescriptive analysis or acombination?
• Can your paper preview results using a truncated or pilot dataset(s)?
• Discussion:
• What limitations can you anticipate for your research?
• What are some potential extensions?
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