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Leaving IllinoisAn exodus of people and money

Executive summaryMigration between the U.S. states is the ultimate expression of “voting with your feet.” People move for many reasons, but, when examined en masse, it’s clear that public policy significantly influences where people choose to live. This study undertakes a thorough examination of Illinois’s migration patterns to better understand progress on important public policy issues. Key findings include:

• Illinois lost a net of 1,227,347 residents to other states between 1991 and 2009, or slightly more than one resident (1.22) every 10 minutes.

• The top states that people from Illinois move to are Florida, Indiana, Wisconsin, Arizona and Texas.

• Illinois lost 86,021 taxpayers between 1995-2007 to its border states: Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri and Kentucky. This represents $26.8 billion in cumulative Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) loss.

• Illinois lost people and taxpayers to 40 states and the District of Columbia, and Illinois lost net income to 42 states and the District of Columbia.

• The total net income leaving the state averaged over $1.8 billion between 1995 and 2007 with a total loss of $23.5 billion. Had this income stayed in Illinois, state and local governments would have collected an estimated $2.4 billion in additional tax revenue.

• When a resident moves out of Illinois, the state doesn’t just lose income and taxes for that one year; rather, the state loses any income and taxes that resident

would have generated for all future years. Compounding these figures over the 13 years assessed in this study – without adjusting for inflation – the state has lost $163.6 billion in net income and $16.9 billion in state and local tax revenue due to out-migration.

• People move from Illinois to states with lower taxes (especially estate taxes), lower union membership, lower population density, lower housing costs and warmer weather.

• The most significant driver of out-migration, on a percentage basis, is the estate tax. This is especially important considering that the number one destination state for former Illinois residents is Florida, a state with no estate tax (or individual income tax).

Conclusion: Without action, out-migration will continue to reduce the ability of both the private and public sectors to ensure Illinois’s economy becomes strong and vibrant.

Measuring Illinois’s out-migration problemThe most comprehensive data available on domestic migration comes from the U.S. Census Bureau.1 Charts 1 and 2 (next page) and Table 1 (Appendix A, page 9) show that between 1991 and 2009, Illinois lost 1,227,347 residents to other states – or slightly more than one resident (1.22) every 10 minutes.

However, while the bureau’s data is telling, it is best considered in conjunction with data

J. Scott Moody is a Senior Fellow for Budget and Tax Policy for the Illinois Policy Institute.

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from another federal agency, the Internal Revenue Service. Since the IRS provides an annual snapshot of taxpayer migration through information collected from tax returns, it provides a much richer picture of migration out of Illinois. The bulk of this study will focus on data from the IRS.

The IRS has access to actual tax returns, a good proxy for the number of households. The agency also provides the number of exemptions per household, a strong indicator of the number of people in a given household. Lastly, the IRS has access to household incomes reported.

Illinois lost a net of 1,227,347 residents to other states between 1991 and 2009, or slightly more than one resident (1.22) every 10 minutes.

Chart 1Illinois Net Domestic Migration

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau and Illinois Policy Institute

Chart 2Illinois Net Population Gain/Loss to Other States

July 1, 1991 to July 1, 2009


Table 2 (Appendix B, page 10) shows the aggregate migration data from the IRS for Illinois. Data from 2007 is the latest available. The data shows that 119,375 taxpayers left the state in 2007, while 103,712 taxpayers entered the state – for a net loss of 15,663 taxpayers. The in-migrating taxpayers represented 180,856 exemptions with an Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) of $5.4 billion, while the out-migrating taxpayers represented 218,270 exemptions and $6.8 billion in gross income – for a net loss of 37,414 exemptions and $1.4 billion in AGI.

Overall, between 1995 and 2007, Illinois has

lost 330,146 taxpayers, 729,964 exemptions and $23.5 billion in AGI (nominal dollars).

Where are out-migrants going?The IRS data also provides migrant data by state, which is useful in determining where out-migrants are going and where in-migrants are coming from. Tables 3a, 3b and 3c (Appendix C, pages 11-13) rank the net migration totals for the years 1995 to 2007 for taxpayers, exemptions and AGI, respectively.

As shown in Table 3a, the top taxpayer (household) out-migrant states are Florida (55,028), Arizona (35,958), Wisconsin (31,889), Indiana (30,537), and California (30,232). On the other hand, the top taxpayer in-migrant states are Michigan (12,366), Ohio (10,000), Pennsylvania (2,450), New Jersey (927) and Nebraska (710). Overall, Illinois loses taxpayers to 40 states, plus the District of Columbia, while gaining taxpayers from only nine states.

As shown in Table 3b, the top exemption (people) out-migrant states are Florida (108,475), Indiana (92,549), Wisconsin (82,954), Arizona (67,612) and Texas (63,852). On the other hand, the top exemption in-migrant states are Ohio (5,768), Michigan (2,545), New York (2,447), New Jersey (1,828) and North Dakota (1,114). Overall, Illinois loses exemptions to 40 states plus the District of Columbia, while gaining exemptions from nine states.

As shown in Table 3c, the top AGI (income) out-migrant states are Florida ($5.6 billion), Arizona ($2.2 billion), California ($2.2 billion), Wisconsin ($1.8 billion) and Texas ($1.6 billion). The amount of income lost to the states above overshadows the net income gained from other states: The top AGI in-migrant states are Ohio ($303 million), Michigan ($140 million), New Jersey ($62 million), Iowa ($30 million) and Louisiana ($23 million). Overall, Illinois loses AGI to 42 states, plus the District of Columbia, while gaining AGI from only seven states.

Losing out to our neighborsBetween 1995 and 2007, Illinois suffered a net loss of taxpayers, people and income to its surrounding states – especially Wisconsin and Indiana. Table 4 (Appendix D, pages 14-16) shows that the annual, net loss to surrounding states was 86,021 taxpayers, 227,528 people and $4.1 billion in annual income. The cumulative income loss was $26.9 billion. Chart 3 shows the trend-line of out-migrating income is slightly worsening.

More troubling is that Illinois has lost taxpayers, people and income to four of the five surrounding states in every single year over this 13-year time-period. Year after year, between 1995 and 2007, Illinois lost taxpayers to Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri and Kentucky. The sole exception was Iowa. Illinois was mostly a net in-migrant state for people and

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Overall, Illinois loses taxpayers to 40 states, plus the District of Columbia, while gaining taxpayers from only nine states.

Chart 3Illinois Income (AGI) Migration to Surrounding States

Calendar Years 1995 to 2007

Source: Internal Revenue Service and Illinois Policy Institute.

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income from Iowa between 1995 and 2001. Since 2001, however, Illinois has lost more people to Iowa than it has gained and the out-migration has worsened over time.

Discussed in this brief is the fact that many people from Illinois are moving to warmer states that also happen to have friendlier tax policies – but weather does little to explain why people are leaving Illinois for Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Kentucky and Indiana.

Destination FloridaFrom the preceding section, it is obvious that Illinois’s largest competitor for people and their wallets is Florida. Table 5 (Appendix E,

page 17) shows that, between 1995 and 2007, Illinois has lost taxpayers, exemptions and AGI to Florida in each year. The cumulative loss in AGI was $35.6 billion (nominal dollars). More so, Chart 4 shows that the trend of net AGI out-migration to Florida has been accelerating.

Why should policymakers worry about out-migration?These out-migrants also take their incomes and purchasing power with them. As shown in Table 2 (Appendix B, page 10), between 1995 and 2007, the total amount of AGI leaving the state was at least $23.5 billion (nominal dollars). The greatest out-migration of AGI was in

Many people from Illinois are moving to warmer states that also happen to have friendlier tax policies – but weather does little to explain why people are leaving Illinois for Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Kentucky and Indiana.

Chart 4Illinois Income (AGI) Migration to Florida

Calendar Years 1995 to 2007


Chart 5Illinois Income (AGI) Migration

Dollars in ThousandsCalendar Years 1995 to 2007


2000, when the state lost $2.3 billion. In fact, as shown in Chart 5 (previous page), the annual average out-migration of $6.2 billion exceeds the average in-migration of $4.4 billion by $1.8 billion. Chart 6 (above) shows that not one year during this time-period saw a net in-migration of AGI into Illinois.

Additionally, Table 6 (above) shows that had this income stayed in Illinois, state and local governments would have collected an estimated

$2.4 billion more in taxes over this time-period. This not only includes a greater dollar amount of income taxes, but also a greater dollar amount of sales and property taxes.

Of course, when someone leaves the state, the lost income isn’t limited to the year the person moved away; it’s lost for every year that follows. Compounding the income losses over the thirteen years considered above, the total income loss comes to $163.5 billion (not

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When someone leaves the state, the lost income isn’t limited to the year the person moved away; it’s lost for every year that follows.

Chart 6Illinois Net Income (AGI) Gain/Loss to Other States


Table 6Estimated State and Local Taxes Lost Due to Migration

Tax Years 1995 to 2007

Tax Year Net AGI (1000s)State and Local

Tax BurdenEstimated Annual Tax Loss (1000s)

Cumulative Tax Loss, 1995 to 2007

(1000s)

1995 (1,275,175) 10.45% (133,273) (1,702,913)

1996 (1,434,407) 10.37% (148,698) (1,765,642)

1997 (1,944,061) 10.26% (199,520) (2,191,454)

1998 (1,852,123) 10.07% (186,489) (1,897,732)

1999 (2,039,611) 10.21% (208,335) (1,884,470)

2000 (2,311,157) 10.27% (237,241) (1,899,290)

2001 (2,016,533) 10.12% (203,976) (1,450,173)

2002 (1,950,600) 9.93% (193,782) (1,205,450)

2003 (1,785,065) 9.86% (176,097) (925,814)

2004 (2,059,573) 10.14% (208,833) (865,010)

2005 (1,817,670) 10.59% (192,578) (579,107)

2006 (1,612,701) 10.66% (171,936) (342,942)

2007 (1,359,230) 10.60% (144,129) (144,129)

Total (23,457,906) -- (2,404,886) (16,854,125)

Note: Not adjusted for inflation.

Source: Internal Revenue Service, U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau, and Illinois Policy Institute.

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adjusted for inflation), while the total tax loss comes to $16.9 billion.

SOLUTIONS How to keep people and wallets from leaving the stateReversing Illinois’s out-migration problem requires an understanding of why residents are leaving. As shown in Table 7 (above), one way to do this is by comparing various characteristics of Illinois against characteristics of destination states.2 In economic terms, out-migrants are expressing their “revealed preferences” by moving to another state more in-line with their preferences and values. This study compares Illinois to these destination states using seven common variables used in migration studies: state and local tax burdens, income tax burdens, estate tax burdens, union membership, population density, housing costs and average temperature.3

State and local tax burdens measure total state and local taxes collected as a percent of personal income, averaged over a 12-year time span ending in 2007.4 Illinois’s average tax burden was 10.27 percent. Taxpayers left for states where tax burdens were 1.03 percent lower (10.17 percent5), while for exemptions it

was 1.08 percent lower (10.16 percent6) and for AGI it was 1.41 percent lower (10.13 percent7). Overall, AGI was most sensitive to state and local tax burdens.

Income tax burden measures total state and local income taxes collected as a percent of personal income, averaged over the 1995 to 2007 time-period.8 Illinois’s average income tax burden was 1.81 percent. Taxpayers left for states where income tax burdens were a 0.15 percent lower (1.81 percent9), while for exemptions it was 0.11 percent lower (1.81 percent10) and for AGI it was 8.94 percent lower (1.65 percent11). Overall, AGI was the most sensitive to state and local income tax burdens.

Estate tax burdens measure estate taxes collected as a percent of personal income in 2009.12 Illinois’s average estate tax burden was 0.06 percent. Taxpayers left for states where estate tax burdens were a whopping 71.6 percent lower (0.02 percent13), while for exemptions it was 65.03 percent lower (0.02 percent14). For AGI, it was 73.34 percent lower (0.01 percent15). Overall, AGI was the most sensitive to estate tax burdens. Keep in mind that Illinois’s comparative disadvantage in tax burden will soon widen with Governor Pat

Illinois’s average tax burden was 10.27 percent. Taxpayers left for states where tax burdens were 1.03 percent lower.

Table 7Netted Values of Key Variables


Variable IllinoisWeighted Average of Other

StatesPercent Difference

Taxpayers Exemptions AGI Taxpayers Exemptions AGI

State and Local Tax Burden

10.27% 10.17% 10.16% 10.13% -1.03% -1.08% -1.41%

Income Tax Burden 1.81% 1.81% 1.81% 1.65% -0.15% -0.11% -8.94%

Estate Tax Burden 0.06% 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% -71.60% -65.03% -73.34%

Union Membership 18.0% 10.5% 10.3% 10.0% -41.89% -42.74% -44.28%

Population Density 224.2 173.2 152.7 184.8 -22.78% -31.90% -17.57%

Cost of Housing $130,800 $118,894 $111,518 $121,520 -9.10% -14.74% -7.09%

Average Temperature 50.0 60.4 59.7 61.5 20.96% 19.54% 23.19%

Note: Bold, italics indicate results of interest.

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau, www.unionstats.com, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Illinois Policy Institute.

Quinn vowing to sign a 67% increase to the Illinois income tax.

Union membership measures the percent of the state’s employed labor force that are members of labor unions, as averaged over the 1995 to 2007 time period.16 Illinois’s average union membership was 18 percent. Taxpayers left for states where union membership was 41.89 percent lower (10.5 percent17), while for exemptions it was 42.74 percent lower (10.3 percent18) and for AGI it was 44.28 percent lower (10 percent19). Overall, AGI was most sensitive to union membership.

Population density measures total population divided by land area, and is as averaged over the 1995 to 2007 time period.20 During this time, Illinois’s population density was 224.2 people per square mile. Taxpayers left for states where the population density was 22.78 percent lower (173.2 people per square mile21), while for exemptions it was 31.9 percent lower (152.7 people per square mile22) and for AGI it was 17.57 percent lower (184.8 people per square mile23). Overall, exemptions was most sensitive to population density.

Housing costs measure the median housing cost as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.24 In 2000, Illinois’s median housing cost was $130,800. Taxpayers left for states where the housing cost was 9.1 percent lower ($118,89425). However, for exemptions, the cost of housing was 14.74 percent lower ($111,51826), and for AGI it was 7.09 percent lower ($121,52027). Overall, exemptions were most sensitive to housing cost.

Average temperature measures the annual average of the daily mean temperature.28 Illinois’s temperature by this measure was 50 degrees Fahrenheit. Taxpayers left for states where temperatures were 20.96 percent higher (60.4 degrees29), while for exemptions it was 19.54 percent higher (59.7 degrees30), and for AGI it was 23.19 percent higher (61.5 degrees31). Overall, AGI was most sensitive to temperature.

ConclusionPeople are most inclined to move to states with lower taxes (especially estate taxes), lower union membership, lower population density, lower housing cost and warmer weather. Additionally, AGI is the most sensitive variable when it comes to state and local tax (and income and estate tax) burdens, union membership and average temperature. The data shows that people and their incomes are leaving Illinois for states that fit most or all of these characteristics. Florida in particular stands out. But it is notable that Illinois lost taxpayers to each of its border states: Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri and Kentucky.

Not every important variable can be changed by policymakers, case in point, the weather. But policymakers can change one of the key variables: tax burdens, which can be reduced. Other variables can be influenced by legislation and, even then, will take years to establish measurable change such as union membership, population density and housing cost.

While identifying specific remedies for each of these issues is beyond the scope of this study, without action, out-migration will continue to reduce the ability of both the private and public sectors to ensure Illinois’s economy becomes strong and vibrant. This study provides a road-map for making the necessary policy changes.

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People are most inclined to move to states with lower taxes (especially estate taxes), lower union membership, lower population density, lower housing costs and warmer weather.

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MethodologyThe IRS data used in this study is derived from the calendar year (CY) 1995 to 2007 state-to-state migration data sets (SSMD) that are published annually by the Statistics of Income Division (SOI) of the IRS. To qualify for inclusion in the SSMD, the IRS compares address information supplied on taxpayers’ tax forms between two years. If the address is different in Year 2 from Year 1, then the taxpayer is classified as a “migrant;” otherwise, the taxpayer is classified as a “non-migrant.”

The IRS is required by law to ensure that its data products do not reveal the identity of any taxpayer. In the SSMD, the data suppression affects its “data fidelity” – to borrow a musical term. In music, the term “recording fidelity” describes a recording’s ability to capture as much of the total sound as possible, i.e., the lower the recording fidelity, then the lower the recorded sound quality. Analogous to this is the data fidelity within the SSMD. For example, if only a single taxpayer moved from state A to state B, it would be relatively simple (for those with the know-how) to identify that taxpayer. Therefore, the IRS lumps all such taxpayers into a residual category to prevent identification. As a result, the exact movement of all taxpayers is unknown. The percentage that is shown represents the SSMD’s data fidelity, which is higher in the state-level migration data than the county-level migration data.

The major strength of the SSMD is that it is based on actual data – not a survey – enforced with criminal penalties.32 This makes the CCMD especially reliable as a data source given people’s incentive to be truthful in their data reporting. In addition, the SSMD includes reported AGI which allows researchers to not only track population flows, but also income flows.

On the other hand, a major weakness of the SSMD is that it excludes certain segments of the population. First, it excludes low-income groups such as students, welfare-recipients and the elderly because the standard deduction and exemptions are greater than their income. Second, it under-represents the very wealthy

because they are more likely to request a filing extension and miss the late September cut-off for inclusion into the data-set. Finally, it may miss taxpayers who have changed filing status – especially from “married filing joint” to “married filing separately.”

Endnotes1 The migration data is a subset of data known as “Components of Population Change.” The most recent data for Illinois can be found here: http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-comp-chg.html The data’s timeframe is not the typical calendar year as it begins and ends on July 1.2 Including Washington, D.C.3 For a comprehensive examination of the migration literature and determinants of migration, see: Hall, Arthur P., Moody, J. Scott and Warcholik, Wendy P., “The County-to-County Migration of Taxpayers and Their Incomes, 1995 to 2006,” Center for Applied Economics, Technical Paper 09-0306, March 2009. http://www.business.ku.edu//_FileLibrary/PageFile/1195/TR%2009-0306--Taxpayer%20Migration.pdf 4 The tax collection data is from the U.S. Census Bureau and the personal income data comes from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.5 This value represents the weighted average of all of the destination states.6 Ibid7 Ibid.8 The tax collection data is from the U.S. Census Bureau and the personal income data comes from the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.9 This value represents the weighted average of all of the destination states.10 Ibid.11 Ibid.12 The tax collection data is from the U.S. Census Bureau and the personal income data comes from the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.13 This value represents the weighted average of all of the destination states.14 Ibid.15 Ibid.16 The union membership data is from www.unionstats.com.17 This value represents the weighted average of all of the destination states.18 Ibid.19 Ibid.20 The tax collection data is from the U.S. Census Bureau and the personal income data comes from the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.21 This value represents the weighted average of all of the destination states.22 Ibid.23 Ibid.24 The median value of housing is based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau.25 This value represents the weighted average of all of the destination states.26 Ibid.27 Ibid.28 The temperature data is from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The data is usually for one selected city in each state. However, in cases where more than one city is provided, especially in large states, the data is averaged.29 This value represents the weighted average of all of the destination states.30 Ibid.31 Ibid.32 Economic surveys can be plagued by a variety of problems ranging from purposeful lying to simple forgetfulness. The poster child for such problems is in the Consumer Expenditure Survey published by the U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics. The reported expenditures often, and quite significantly, deviate from the reported income.

- Appendix A -

Table 1Illinois Net Domestic Migration

July 1, 1991 to July 1, 2009

Year, as of July 1

Net Domestic Migration

Aggregate Change

1991 (50,440) (50,440)

1992 (50,857) (101,297)

1993 (59,286) (160,583)

1994 (62,039) (222,622)

1995 (54,771) (277,393)

1996 (63,769) (341,162)

1997 (68,828) (409,990)

1998 (68,981) (478,971)

1999 (65,930) (544,901)

2000 (a) (67,830) (612,731)

2001 (69,730) (682,461)

2002 (78,810) (761,271)

2003 (78,636) (839,907)

2004 (72,526) (912,433)

2005 (84,933) (997,366)

2006 (74,809) (1,072,175)

2007 (53,878) (1,126,053)

2008 (53,045) (1,179,098)

2009 (48,249) (1,227,347)

(a) Interpolated.


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- Appendix B -

Table 2Illinois Net Taxpayer Migration

Tax Year 1995 to 2007

Tax Year

In-Migrants Out-Migrants Net Cumulative AGI Loss, 1995 to 2007

(1,000s)Taxpay-

ersExemp-

tionsAGI

(1,000s)Taxpay-

ersExemp-

tionsAGI

(1,000s)Taxpayers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

1995 91,499 173,253 3,402,190 113,689 223,482 4,677,365 (22,190) (50,229) (1,275,175) (16,577,275)

1996 91,296 172,479 3,584,034 119,183 230,076 5,018,441 (27,887) (57,597) (1,434,407) (17,212,884)

1997 92,600 172,687 3,944,832 121,306 233,970 5,888,893 (28,706) (61,283) (1,944,061) (21,384,671)

1998 95,544 176,244 4,258,435 121,805 233,706 6,110,558 (26,261) (57,462) (1,852,123) (18,521,230)

1999 95,849 175,355 4,624,392 124,840 236,802 6,664,003 (28,991) (61,447) (2,039,611) (18,356,499)

2000 96,385 173,700 4,845,957 124,796 234,245 7,157,114 (28,411) (60,545) (2,311,157) (18,489,256)

2001 92,890 167,186 4,428,194 122,331 229,344 6,444,727 (29,441) (62,158) (2,016,533) (14,115,731)

2002 88,575 158,871 3,934,219 117,377 222,264 5,884,819 (28,802) (63,393) (1,950,600) (11,703,600)

2003 89,097 160,616 4,038,622 118,217 224,506 5,823,687 (29,120) (63,890) (1,785,065) (8,925,325)

2004 92,445 165,589 4,377,533 119,261 228,355 6,437,106 (26,816) (62,766) (2,059,573) (8,238,292)

2005 99,148 177,346 4,942,723 120,654 228,971 6,760,393 (21,506) (51,625) (1,817,670) (5,453,010)

2006 100,067 177,872 5,115,973 116,419 218,027 6,728,674 (16,352) (40,155) (1,612,701) (3,225,402)

2007 103,712 180,856 5,437,422 119,375 218,270 6,796,652 (15,663) (37,414) (1,359,230) (1,359,230)

Total 1,229,107 2,232,054 56,934,526 1,559,253 2,962,018 80,392,432 (330,146) (729,964) (23,457,906) (163,562,405)

Source: Internal Revenue Service and Illinois Policy Institute

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- Appendix C -

Table 3aNet Illinois Migration to Other States Sorted by Taxpayers (Households)


State Taxpayers Rank ExemptionsAvg. Annual Change in

AGI (in thousands)Florida (55,028) 1 (108,475) (5,616,776)

Arizona (35,958) 2 (67,612) (2,232,744)

Wisconsin (31,889) 3 (82,954) (1,803,945)

Indiana (30,537) 4 (92,549) (1,517,988)

California (30,232) 5 (29,601) (2,169,436)

Texas (25,854) 6 (63,852) (1,563,302)

Georgia (16,106) 7 (36,306) (937,832)

Colorado (15,883) 8 (26,962) (1,192,100)

Missouri (15,582) 9 (27,428) (485,005)

Nevada (14,159) 10 (25,955) (874,342)

Tennessee (13,130) 11 (28,526) (720,560)

North Carolina (9,737) 12 (20,172) (802,197)

Kentucky (6,779) 13 (15,237) (298,923)

Minnesota (6,311) 14 (18,020) (391,171)

Washington (6,256) 15 (9,027) (431,175)

Virginia (5,851) 16 (10,715) (286,981)

Arkansas (5,631) 17 (12,724) (277,638)

South Carolina (4,717) 18 (9,408) (423,390)

Alabama (4,466) 19 (9,920) (218,097)

Oregon (4,291) 20 (6,871) (243,764)

Mississippi (3,779) 21 (8,035) (131,555)

New Mexico (2,795) 22 (4,664) (104,979)

New York (2,082) 23 2,447 (102,763)

Maryland (1,806) 24 (3,157) (141,530)

Iowa (1,234) 25 (9,360) 29,518

District of Columbia (1,211) 26 (1,248) (45,382)

Montana (1,077) 27 (1,888) (81,238)

Oklahoma (913) 28 (2,568) (43,993)

Utah (617) 29 (808) (81,107)

Idaho (613) 30 (1,117) (60,378)

Wyoming (581) 31 (843) (62,884)

Alaska (494) 32 (189) (9,592)

Massachusetts (479) 33 (1,263) (142,241)

Maine (466) 34 (1,153) (62,867)

Hawaii (348) 35 372 (32,531)

New Hampshire (301) 36 (1,275) (47,506)

West Virginia (144) 37 (603) (11,583)

Vermont (135) 38 (342) (34,824)

Connecticut (29) 39 (1,059) (208,753)

Delaware (27) 40 284 8,765

South Dakota (21) 41 (447) (14,046)

Rhode Island 33 42 (149) (19,508)

Kansas 162 43 (2,257) (59,959)

Louisiana 177 44 170 22,922

North Dakota 578 45 1,114 19,398

Nebraska 710 46 (681) (26,563)

New Jersey 927 47 1,828 61,667

Pennsylvania 2,450 48 928 (31,522)

Ohio 10,000 49 5,768 303,992

Michigan 12,366 50 2,545 140,487


Neighboring states in bold

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- Appendix C (continued)-

Table 3bNet Illinois Migration to Other States Sorted by Exemptions (People)


State Taxpayers Exemptions RankAvg. Annual Change in

AGI (in thousands)Florida (55,028) (108,475) 1 (5,616,776)

Indiana (30,537) (92,549) 2 (1,517,988)

Wisconsin (31,889) (82,954) 3 (1,803,945)

Arizona (35,958) (67,612) 4 (2,232,744)

Texas (25,854) (63,852) 5 (1,563,302)

Georgia (16,106) (36,306) 6 (937,832)

California (30,232) (29,601) 7 (2,169,436)

Tennessee (13,130) (28,526) 8 (720,560)

Missouri (15,582) (27,428) 9 (485,005)

Colorado (15,883) (26,962) 10 (1,192,100)

Nevada (14,159) (25,955) 11 (874,342)

North Carolina (9,737) (20,172) 12 (802,197)

Minnesota (6,311) (18,020) 13 (391,171)

Kentucky (6,779) (15,237) 14 (298,923)

Arkansas (5,631) (12,724) 15 (277,638)

Virginia (5,851) (10,715) 16 (286,981)

Alabama (4,466) (9,920) 17 (218,097)

South Carolina (4,717) (9,408) 18 (423,390)

Iowa (1,234) (9,360) 19 29,518

Washington (6,256) (9,027) 20 (431,175)

Mississippi (3,779) (8,035) 21 (131,555)

Oregon (4,291) (6,871) 22 (243,764)

New Mexico (2,795) (4,664) 23 (104,979)

Maryland (1,806) (3,157) 24 (141,530)

Oklahoma (913) (2,568) 25 (43,993)

Kansas 162 (2,257) 26 (59,959)

Montana (1,077) (1,888) 27 (81,238)

New Hampshire (301) (1,275) 28 (47,506)

Massachusetts (479) (1,263) 29 (142,241)

District of Columbia (1,211) (1,248) 30 (45,382)

Maine (466) (1,153) 31 (62,867)

Idaho (613) (1,117) 32 (60,378)

Connecticut (29) (1,059) 33 (208,753)

Wyoming (581) (843) 34 (62,884)

Utah (617) (808) 35 (81,107)

Nebraska 710 (681) 36 (26,563)

West Virginia (144) (603) 37 (11,583)

South Dakota (21) (447) 38 (14,046)

Vermont (135) (342) 39 (34,824)

Alaska (494) (189) 40 (9,592)

Rhode Island 33 (149) 41 (19,508)

Louisiana 177 170 42 22,922

Delaware (27) 284 43 8,765

Hawaii (348) 372 44 (32,531)

Pennsylvania 2,450 928 45 (31,522)

North Dakota 578 1,114 46 19,398

New Jersey 927 1,828 47 61,667

New York (2,082) 2,447 48 (102,763)

Michigan 12,366 2,545 49 140,487

Ohio 10,000 5,768 50 303,992



of 17

- Appendix C (continued)-

Table 3cNet Illinois Migration to Other StatesSorted by AGI (Income)


State Taxpayers ExemptionsAvg. Annual Change in AGI (in thousands)

Rank

Florida (55,028) (108,475) (5,616,776) 1

Arizona (35,958) (67,612) (2,232,744) 2

California (30,232) (29,601) (2,169,436) 3

Wisconsin (31,889) (82,954) (1,803,945) 4

Texas (25,854) (63,852) (1,563,302) 5

Indiana (30,537) (92,549) (1,517,988) 6

Colorado (15,883) (26,962) (1,192,100) 7

Georgia (16,106) (36,306) (937,832) 8

Nevada (14,159) (25,955) (874,342) 9

North Carolina (9,737) (20,172) (802,197) 10

Tennessee (13,130) (28,526) (720,560) 11

Missouri (15,582) (27,428) (485,005) 12

Washington (6,256) (9,027) (431,175) 13

South Carolina (4,717) (9,408) (423,390) 14

Minnesota (6,311) (18,020) (391,171) 15

Kentucky (6,779) (15,237) (298,923) 16

Virginia (5,851) (10,715) (286,981) 17

Arkansas (5,631) (12,724) (277,638) 18

Oregon (4,291) (6,871) (243,764) 19

Alabama (4,466) (9,920) (218,097) 20

Connecticut (29) (1,059) (208,753) 21

Massachusetts (479) (1,263) (142,241) 22

Maryland (1,806) (3,157) (141,530) 23

Mississippi (3,779) (8,035) (131,555) 24

New Mexico (2,795) (4,664) (104,979) 25

New York (2,082) 2,447 (102,763) 26

Montana (1,077) (1,888) (81,238) 27

Utah (617) (808) (81,107) 28

Wyoming (581) (843) (62,884) 29

Maine (466) (1,153) (62,867) 30

Idaho (613) (1,117) (60,378) 31

Kansas 162 (2,257) (59,959) 32

New Hampshire (301) (1,275) (47,506) 33

District of Columbia (1,211) (1,248) (45,382) 34

Oklahoma (913) (2,568) (43,993) 35

Vermont (135) (342) (34,824) 36

Hawaii (348) 372 (32,531) 37

Pennsylvania 2,450 928 (31,522) 38

Nebraska 710 (681) (26,563) 39

Rhode Island 33 (149) (19,508) 40

South Dakota (21) (447) (14,046) 41

West Virginia (144) (603) (11,583) 42

Alaska (494) (189) (9,592) 43

Delaware (27) 284 8,765 44

North Dakota 578 1,114 19,398 45

Louisiana 177 170 22,922 46

Iowa (1,234) (9,360) 29,518 47

New Jersey 927 1,828 61,667 48

Michigan 12,366 2,545 140,487 49

Ohio 10,000 5,768 303,992 50



of 17

- Appendix D -

Table 4Illinois Net Taxpayer Migration to Surrounding States


TOTAL FOR ALL SURROUNDING STATES

Tax Year

In-Migrants Out-Migrants Net Cumulative AGI Loss, 1995 to 2007 (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

1995 24,965 45,126 796,026 31,902 63,953 1,113,852 (6,937) (18,827) (317,826) (4,131,738)

1996 25,738 47,336 877,977 32,294 63,775 1,141,961 (6,556) (16,439) (263,984) (3,167,808)

1997 26,656 48,434 1,011,506 32,247 63,527 1,214,242 (5,591) (15,093) (202,736) (2,230,096)

1998 27,375 49,205 1,049,984 32,767 64,335 1,292,900 (5,392) (15,130) (242,916) (2,429,160)

1999 27,548 48,906 1,130,861 33,663 65,594 1,395,954 (6,115) (16,688) (265,093) (2,385,837)

2000 27,191 48,088 1,114,987 33,528 64,732 1,430,827 (6,337) (16,644) (315,840) (2,526,720)

2001 26,163 46,938 1,026,816 33,210 64,011 1,398,589 (7,047) (17,073) (371,773) (2,602,411)

2002 25,163 44,729 967,768 33,074 64,369 1,338,792 (7,911) (19,640) (371,024) (2,226,144)

2003 25,789 46,142 1,010,685 33,470 65,377 1,354,812 (7,681) (19,235) (344,127) (1,720,635)

2004 26,947 48,031 1,105,034 34,229 68,213 1,472,844 (7,282) (20,182) (367,810) (1,471,240)

2005 27,790 49,112 1,185,648 34,617 68,182 1,514,080 (6,827) (19,070) (328,432) (985,296)

2006 28,820 50,867 1,227,683 34,135 66,726 1,505,666 (5,315) (15,859) (277,983) (555,966)

2007 27,919 48,867 1,143,777 34,949 66,515 1,550,576 (7,030) (17,648) (406,799) (406,799)

Total 348,064 621,781 13,648,752 434,085 849,309 17,725,095 (86,021) (227,528) (4,076,343) (26,839,850)

INDIANA

Tax Year


Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

1995 6,826 12,188 214,495 9,351 19,629 344,339 (2,525) (7,441) (129,844) (1,687,972)

1996 7,108 13,034 243,375 9,459 19,578 343,792 (2,351) (6,544) (100,417) (1,205,004)

1997 7,754 13,861 291,194 9,146 18,809 358,316 (1,392) (4,948) (67,122) (738,342)

1998 7,756 13,672 304,298 9,339 19,228 370,129 (1,583) (5,556) (65,831) (658,310)

1999 7,975 13,948 325,928 9,542 19,605 392,290 (1,567) (5,657) (66,362) (597,258)

2000 7,536 13,095 307,882 9,404 19,231 407,729 (1,868) (6,136) (99,847) (798,776)

2001 6,984 12,575 259,000 9,740 19,809 413,882 (2,756) (7,234) (154,882) (1,084,174)

2002 7,304 13,228 279,301 10,135 20,871 413,354 (2,831) (7,643) (134,053) (804,318)

2003 7,513 13,451 297,431 10,273 21,651 411,902 (2,760) (8,200) (114,471) (572,355)

2004 8,340 15,096 335,314 10,762 23,142 471,132 (2,422) (8,046) (135,818) (543,272)

2005 8,255 15,010 345,940 11,263 24,045 484,030 (3,008) (9,035) (138,090) (414,270)

2006 8,965 16,126 388,705 10,863 22,922 478,278 (1,898) (6,796) (89,573) (179,146)

2007 7,369 13,210 259,069 10,945 22,523 480,747 (3,576) (9,313) (221,678) (221,678)

Total 99,685 178,494 3,851,932 130,222 271,043 5,369,920 (30,537) (92,549) (1,517,988) (9,504,875)

of 17

IOWA

Tax Year


Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

1995 4,010 7,255 125,404 3,833 7,374 117,331 177 (119) 8,073 104,949

1996 4,224 7,568 134,871 3,889 7,382 121,768 335 186 13,103 157,236

1997 4,226 7,602 144,456 3,979 7,564 132,823 247 38 11,633 127,963

1998 4,364 7,862 157,970 4,163 8,077 144,436 201 (215) 13,534 135,340

1999 4,323 7,615 168,293 4,070 7,779 143,650 253 (164) 24,643 221,787

2000 4,323 7,698 171,329 4,242 7,970 163,360 81 (272) 7,969 63,752

2001 4,217 7,531 172,565 4,175 7,903 155,248 42 (372) 17,317 121,219

2002 3,789 6,649 137,177 4,038 7,737 142,870 (249) (1,088) (5,693) (34,158)

2003 3,924 7,025 146,354 4,193 7,972 149,253 (269) (947) (2,899) (14,495)

2004 3,903 6,839 157,795 4,316 8,286 165,190 (413) (1,447) (7,395) (29,580)

2005 4,126 7,168 169,944 4,396 8,450 173,598 (270) (1,282) (3,654) (10,962)

2006 4,235 7,359 169,273 4,657 8,875 178,743 (422) (1,516) (9,470) (18,940)

2007 4,285 7,428 166,189 5,232 9,590 203,832 (947) (2,162) (37,643) (37,643)

Total 53,949 95,599 2,021,620 55,183 104,959 1,992,102 (1,234) (9,360) 29,518 786,468

KENTUCKY

Tax Year


Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

1995 1,514 2,917 41,635 1,992 4,124 70,335 (478) (1,207) (28,700) (373,100)

1996 1,510 3,004 50,032 2,029 4,235 72,623 (519) (1,231) (22,591) (271,092)

1997 1,536 3,076 52,371 2,071 4,320 74,163 (535) (1,244) (21,792) (239,712)

1998 1,620 3,130 57,384 2,056 4,077 76,900 (436) (947) (19,516) (195,160)

1999 1,613 3,131 55,310 2,226 4,472 98,346 (613) (1,341) (43,036) (387,324)

2000 1,588 3,121 59,437 2,085 4,147 77,218 (497) (1,026) (17,781) (142,248)

2001 1,531 3,021 59,931 2,084 4,130 79,247 (553) (1,109) (19,316) (135,212)

2002 1,350 2,561 47,835 2,016 4,048 75,808 (666) (1,487) (27,973) (167,838)

2003 1,431 2,695 51,365 2,074 4,093 80,554 (643) (1,398) (29,189) (145,945)

2004 1,451 2,775 54,304 2,092 4,245 86,262 (641) (1,470) (31,958) (127,832)

2005 1,512 2,845 76,002 1,921 3,856 80,732 (409) (1,011) (4,730) (14,190)

2006 1,529 2,860 57,027 1,938 3,812 83,374 (409) (952) (26,347) (52,694)

2007 1,619 3,066 80,799 1,999 3,880 86,793 (380) (814) (5,994) (5,994)

Total 19,804 38,202 743,432 26,583 53,439 1,042,355 (6,779) (15,237) (298,923) (2,258,341)

of 17

- Appendix D (continued) -



MISSOURI

Tax Year


Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

1995 6,317 11,867 205,493 7,680 14,538 242,478 (1,363) (2,671) (36,985) (480,805)

1996 6,403 12,268 222,739 7,944 14,885 254,237 (1,541) (2,617) (31,498) (377,976)

1997 6,467 12,101 239,175 8,140 15,169 287,521 (1,673) (3,068) (48,346) (531,806)

1998 6,653 12,296 249,817 7,900 14,584 281,917 (1,247) (2,288) (32,100) (321,000)

1999 6,831 12,450 283,549 8,241 15,023 307,264 (1,410) (2,573) (23,715) (213,435)

2000 6,857 12,438 269,572 8,273 14,805 339,753 (1,416) (2,367) (70,181) (561,448)

2001 6,940 12,660 280,165 7,835 14,091 308,538 (895) (1,431) (28,373) (198,611)

2002 6,567 11,881 254,498 7,570 13,540 286,197 (1,003) (1,659) (31,699) (190,194)

2003 6,621 12,115 258,126 7,888 14,201 306,463 (1,267) (2,086) (48,337) (241,685)

2004 6,702 12,074 278,701 7,892 14,409 323,333 (1,190) (2,335) (44,632) (178,528)

2005 6,886 12,249 288,204 7,875 13,924 326,764 (989) (1,675) (38,560) (115,680)

2006 6,941 12,299 298,859 7,717 13,614 312,585 (776) (1,315) (13,726) (27,452)

2007 7,263 12,644 306,655 8,075 13,987 343,508 (812) (1,343) (36,853) (36,853)

Total 87,448 159,342 3,435,553 103,030 186,770 3,920,558 (15,582) (27,428) (485,005) (3,475,473)

WISCONSIN

Tax Year


Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

1995 6,298 10,899 208,999 9,046 18,288 339,369 (2,748) (7,389) (130,370) (1,694,810)

1996 6,493 11,462 226,960 8,973 17,695 349,541 (2,480) (6,233) (122,581) (1,470,972)

1997 6,673 11,794 284,310 8,911 17,665 361,419 (2,238) (5,871) (77,109) (848,199)

1998 6,982 12,245 280,515 9,309 18,369 419,518 (2,327) (6,124) (139,003) (1,390,030)

1999 6,806 11,762 297,781 9,584 18,715 454,404 (2,778) (6,953) (156,623) (1,409,607)

2000 6,887 11,736 306,767 9,524 18,579 442,767 (2,637) (6,843) (136,000) (1,088,000)

2001 6,491 11,151 255,155 9,376 18,078 441,674 (2,885) (6,927) (186,519) (1,305,633)

2002 6,153 10,410 248,957 9,315 18,173 420,563 (3,162) (7,763) (171,606) (1,029,636)

2003 6,300 10,856 257,409 9,042 17,460 406,640 (2,742) (6,604) (149,231) (746,155)

2004 6,551 11,247 278,920 9,167 18,131 426,927 (2,616) (6,884) (148,007) (592,028)

2005 7,011 11,840 305,558 9,162 17,907 448,956 (2,151) (6,067) (143,398) (430,194)

2006 7,150 12,223 313,819 8,960 17,503 452,686 (1,810) (5,280) (138,867) (277,734)

2007 7,383 12,519 331,065 8,698 16,535 435,696 (1,315) (4,016) (104,631) (104,631)

Total 87,178 150,144 3,596,215 119,067 233,098 5,400,160 (31,889) (82,954) (1,803,945) (12,387,629)


of 17- Appendix D (continued) -



- Appendix E -

Table 5Illinois Net Taxpayer Migration to Florida


Tax Year


Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

Tax-payers

Exemp-tions

AGI (1,000s)

1995 5,594 10,124 188,100 9,075 17,016 391,313 (3,481) (6,892) (203,213) (2,641,769)

1996 5,515 9,849 186,768 9,686 18,112 437,945 (4,171) (8,263) (251,177) (3,014,124)

1997 5,519 9,944 212,288 10,199 18,998 686,609 (4,680) (9,054) (474,321) (5,217,531)

1998 5,842 10,465 250,390 9,848 18,100 602,774 (4,006) (7,635) (352,384) (3,523,840)

1999 5,912 10,411 268,212 10,306 19,115 628,745 (4,394) (8,704) (360,533) (3,244,797)

2000 5,821 10,085 307,828 10,816 19,894 823,250 (4,995) (9,809) (515,422) (4,123,376)

2001 5,908 10,204 251,250 11,284 20,775 773,143 (5,376) (10,571) (521,893) (3,653,251)

2002 5,830 10,097 252,987 11,209 20,992 685,128 (5,379) (10,895) (432,141) (2,592,846)

2003 5,767 10,079 255,054 11,905 22,186 707,907 (6,138) (12,107) (452,853) (2,264,265)

2004 6,309 11,187 301,023 11,625 21,884 804,074 (5,316) (10,697) (503,051) (2,012,204)

2005 6,678 11,783 292,150 10,733 19,632 897,191 (4,055) (7,849) (605,041) (1,815,123)

2006 6,734 11,632 321,461 9,047 16,073 887,979 (2,313) (4,441) (566,518) (1,133,036)

2007 7,463 12,735 346,126 8,187 14,293 724,355 (724) (1,558) (378,229) (378,229)

Total 78,892 138,595 3,433,637 133,920 247,070 9,050,413 (55,028) (108,475) (5,616,776) (35,614,391)


of 17

leaving illinois: an exodus of people and money

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