leave policies & research, praha 10. - 11. 2009 recent demographic trends jitka rychtaříková...
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LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Recent demographic trends
Jitka RychtaříkováCharles University in Prague, Faculty of ScienceDepartment of Demography and Geodemography
Albertov 6, 128 43 Praha 2, Czech Republic
tel.: 420 221 951 420 e-mail: [email protected]
Outline Recent fertility change and current fertility
patterns New phenomena: low fertility, postponement,
extramarital fertility Country classification based on current
fertility patterns Mortality change Population ageing as primarily the outcome
of fertility change Population prospects
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
In the past forty years the rate and character of fertility in Europe has
changed considerably.
The newly established model of fertility is historically unprecedented, as the small
number of live births is insufficient to secure even simple demographic
reproduction in the future.
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Shift toward rare and late chilbearing
Profound fertility decline has occurred in Northern and Western European societies since the mid 1960s, was over by the end of the 1980s in Southern Europe, and has emerged since the beginning of the 1990s in Eastern Europe.
Late fertility starts being a common widely accepted pattern.
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Variations in TFR over time in 30 European countries
simple reproduction
low fertility
lowest low fertility
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Two country groups in 2007: just below replacement level and very low fertility
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
2,1S
lov
ak
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Ne
the
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De
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ed
en
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
No
rwa
y
Fra
nc
e
Ire
lan
d
Isla
nd
To
tal f
ert
ilit
y ra
te
Lowest-low fertility
Low fertility
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Low fertility trap: two critical tresholds
Low fertility: TFR less than 1,5 Lowest low fertility: TFR less than 1,3
P. McDonald (2005): it is much more difficult for a country to raise fertility when the total fertility rate has fallen below the critical level of 1,5 children per woman.
The situation becomes even more desperate when the lowest low fertility (below 1,3) is reached.
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
If we look back in history it is clear that the current European fertility patterns have little to do with
previous demographic development
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
Ro
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a
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epu
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urg
Est
on
ia
Net
her
lan
ds
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giu
m
Fin
lan
d
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mar
k
Sw
eden
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
No
rway
Fra
nce
Irel
and
Isla
nd
To
tal
fert
ilit
y ra
te
1960 1980 2007
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
The correlation coefficient between total fertility and relative GDP (EU27=1) was 0,513 in 2007.
This means that the richer the country within the EU, the more children it was possible to expect.
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
Bu
lgar
iaR
om
ania
Po
lan
dL
ith
uan
iaL
atvi
aH
un
gar
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lova
kia
Est
on
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ug
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alta
Cze
ch R
epu
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ypru
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nia
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erm
any
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ium
Un
ited
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lan
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ark
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Au
stri
aN
eth
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wit
zerl
and
Irel
and
No
rway
Lu
xem
bo
urg
To
tal f
ert
ility
ra
te a
nd
GD
P (
EU
27
= 1
)
Total fertility rate GDP (EU 27 = 1)
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Fertility postponement a part of a postponement transition
Longer education Building a professional career Reliable contraception ART treatment „solving“ also problems
of postponed parenthood
Factors behind
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Younger age does not more mean a higher fertility
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Bu
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ia
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ia
Lit
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ania
Lat
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Est
on
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Slo
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a
Po
lan
d
Icel
and
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Hu
ng
ary
Au
stri
a
Po
rtu
gal
Cyp
rus
Bel
giu
m
Irel
and
No
rway
Slo
ven
ia
Fin
lan
d
Den
mar
k
Gre
ece
Fra
nce
Sw
eden
Ital
y
Net
her
lan
ds
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Ger
man
y
Sp
ain
Sw
itze
rlan
d
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Mean age at first childbirth in 2005
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Late parenthood (motherhood): miscellaneous impact on fertility levels
North and West of Europe: a higher age at the first childbearing does not imply low fertility levels.
East and South of Europe show a „negative correlation“ between an increasing age of mothers and final low fertility levels, thus confirming a classical theory as regards the relationship between age at first childbirth and final fertility rate.
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
2006: Cumulative age-specific fertility rates; (country order according to TFR)
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
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epu
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ece
Au
stri
a
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ta
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itze
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Est
on
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Bel
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bo
urg
Net
her
lan
ds
Den
mar
k
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
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lan
d
Sw
eden
No
rway
Irel
and
Fra
nce
Icel
and
-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35+
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Another new phenomenon
Increase in extra-marital births
Accelerating in last decadesReflecting cultural settings
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Extra-marital births per 100 births:uneven increase over time
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and
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epu
blic
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Net
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a
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lan
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Un
ited
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gd
om
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k
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ven
ia
Fra
nce
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ia
No
rway
Sw
eden
Est
on
ia
Icel
and
1960
1980
2006
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Variations in share of extramarital births over time in 30 European countries
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
An increase of extra-marital births does not mean a rising cohabitation as an alternative to family legalized
by marriage but more oftenmeans a lone motherhood
Countries with low nonmarital fertility ratios (Italy, Spain, Belgium) tend to have also low overall childhood exposure to single parenting.
Parental cohabitation accounts for much nonmarital fertility in Northern Europe.P.Heuveline, J.T. Timberlake, F.F.Furstenberg: Shifting childrearing to single mothers: Results from 17 Western countries, Population and Development Review, 29, 2003, 1
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
A country classification according to current levels of TFR, mean age at
first chilbearing, and the percentage of extramarital births.
Three country groups and one outlier can be delimited.
Three most imortant recent changes: fertility decline, increase in mean age at first childbirth,
increase in the share of extra-marital births
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
TFR MAB1 Extramar
Total 1,51 27,43 33,80
28,50 42,08
Iceland 2,05 26,29 65,72
25,97 36,18
1,40 28,56 16,92
Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, SwitzerlandDenmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands,
Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom
1,32
1,80
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Cluster characteristics show puzzled fertility patterns
1. Group (Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia) shows the lowest low fertility level, the youngest age at first childbearing, and medium frequency of extramarital births.
2. Group (Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, Switzerland) displays low fertility, the oldest age at first childbearing, and low proportion of extramarital births.
3. Group (Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom), experiences the highest fertility, high age at first childbirth, and a high share of nonmarital births.
Might this group represent forerunners of a suitable/sustainable fertility?
Traditional demographic correlations are violated: young age and low frequency of extra-marital births do no more correlate with
high fertility levels!
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Cohort fertility of women born in 1980:Possible future prospects?
Fertility rates for older ages estimated by using the rates observed for previous generations
1,28
1,31
1,31
1,31
1,32
1,33
1,33
1,36
1,37
1,37
1,37
1,39
1,39
1,43
1,43
1,44
1,47
1,57
1,60
1,69
1,72
1,77
1,80
1,81
1,85
1,86
1,95
1,95
2,09
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
2,1
Slo
ven
ia
Ital
y
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d
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a
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ain
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ch R
epu
bli
c
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ece
Hu
ng
ary
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ia
Ger
man
y
Lat
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Lit
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stri
a
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itze
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on
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giu
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urg
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Sw
eden
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Fin
lan
d
Den
mar
k
No
rway
Fra
nce
Irel
and
Icel
and
CFR (completed fertility rate: birth cohort 1980)
simple reproduction
lowest low fertility
low fertility
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
2,2
Slo
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a
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d
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Ital
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epu
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a
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ta
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d
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Est
on
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bo
urg
Net
her
lan
ds
Den
mar
k
Fin
lan
d
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Sw
eden
Irel
and
No
rway
Fra
nce
TFR 2007
TFR 2060
Is the expected TFR increase realistic in low fertility countries ?
Sorted according to 2060 Europop2008: Convergence scenario (convergence year 2150)
Current fertility and future prospects for Europe
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Mortality change and its impact
Decrease at older age in all countries
Population 65+: pension system
Population 80+: health care system
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Survival in EU27+(2): 2005
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Mal
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Net
her
lan
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giu
m
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Ital
y
Cyp
rus
Fin
lan
d
Irel
and
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man
y
Au
stri
a
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
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ece
Sp
ain
Sw
eden
Fra
nce
Males
Females
Life expectancy at age 65
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Population aging (increase in the proportion of people age
65+ or 60+) is the most challenging phenomenon in the 21st century.
It is the outcome of the demographic transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality.
The role of international migration in this process has been less important than that of fertility and mortality.
The older population itself is aging and the oldest-old (age 80+) represent the fastest growing age group.
Population aging is a historically unprecedented and likely irreversible phenomenon.
Population aging has implications on family composition and living arrangements, intergenerational transfers, pension system,
health care system, etc.
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
0
5
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15
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35
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urg
Un
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and
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2009 2060% age 65+
Sorted according to 2060 r = + 0,134
There is no correlation in the share of 65+ between 2009 and 2060
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Fertility is the key factor as regards the future population ageing
Proportion of population aged 65 and over in 2050 is correlated with (based on EU27 countries):
Total fertility rate (2005) -0,591**
Population 65+ (2005) 0,454*
Male life expectancy at 65 (2004) -0,004
Female life expectancy at 65 (2004) -0,043
** Correlation is significant at the 0,01 level (2- tailed)* Correlation is significant at the 0,05 level (2-tailed)
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Very low fertility levels if maintained will lead to rapid population loss and an extreme form of population ageing in individual countries.
The population is projected to become older in all EU member states, Norway and Switzerland.
The share of people age 65+ is currently between 12% (Cyprus) and 20% (Germany, Italy). However, the figure will at least double in all EU 27+2 countries.
In 2060, the share of people age 65+ is expected to reach a minimum of 24% (Luxembourg) and a maximum of 36% (Poland).
The oldest populations in 2060 will be: Poland (36.2), Slovakia (36.1), Romania (35.0), Lithuania (34.7), Latvia (34.4), Bulgaria (34.2).
The“youngest“ in 2060: Luxembourg (23.6), United Kingdom (24.7), Denmark (25.0)
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
The oldest and the poorest
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
LuxembourgUnited Kingdom
DenmarkIreland
NorwayCyprusFrance
BelgiumSweden
NetherlandsSwitzerland
FinlandAustria
PortugalEstoniaGreece
HungaryGermany
MaltaItaly
SpainCzech Republic
SloveniaBulgaria
LatviaRomaniaLithuaniaSlovakia
Poland
2060 2009
Old-age dependency ratio (population at age of: 65+/20-64*100)
Sorted according to 2060
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Factor 1 Factor 2Total fertility rate 0,762 0,021
Male life expectancy at birth 0,881 0,092Old-age dependency ratio 0,019 0,986
Crude rate of population change 0,816 -0,478Explained variability 51% 30%
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis
Living more and reproducing less: conditions in 2007-2008
Lower fertility, shorter survival, negative population change
Higher fertility, longer survival, positive population change
Lo
we
r O
AD
RH
igh
er
OA
DR
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
Lit
hu
ania
Slo
vaki
a
Lat
via
Po
lan
d
Ro
man
ia
Bu
lgar
ia
Slo
ven
ia
Hu
ng
ary
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Est
on
ia
Ger
man
y
Mal
ta
Sp
ain
Ital
y
Gre
ece
Po
rtu
gal
Au
stri
a
Sw
itze
rlan
d
Net
her
lan
ds
Fin
lan
d
Bel
giu
m
Cyp
rus
Den
mar
k
Sw
eden
Fra
nce
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
No
rway
Irel
and
2060Factor scores
Demographic continuum in 2060 for EU27+Norway+Switzerland
Lower fertility, shorter survival, negative
population change, and high OADR
Higher fertility, longer survival, positive
population change, and lower OADR
FactorTotal fertility rate 0,844
Male life expectancy at birth 0,807Old-age dependency ratio -0,970
Crude rate of population change 0,969Explained variability 81,10%
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Prospective age assigns ages to
people on the basis of their remaining
life expectancies in a reference year,
not on the number of years that they
have already lived.
With advances in health and life expectancy, the meaning of the number of years lived has changed.
Rethinking age and aging by Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov, Population Bulletin, Vol.63, No.4, 2008
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Bu
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La
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kia
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ve
nia
Hu
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ary
Cze
ch
Re
pu
bli
c Ma
lta
Gre
ec
e
Ita
ly
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Fin
lan
d
Po
rtu
ga
l
De
nm
ark
Au
str
ia
Fra
nc
e Sp
ain
Be
lgiu
m
Sw
ed
en
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
No
rwa
y
Lu
xe
mb
ou
rg
Ire
lan
d
Cyp
rus
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2060/2009
2035/2009
2015/2009
Change in total population over time
2015: natural increase will convert in natural decrease 2035: start of the population decline
Two turning points for EU27: 2015 and 2035
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Between 2009 and 2015 (or 2035 or 2060), the largest population decline is expected in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania.
The profound decrease will also be experienced by populations in Central Europe (Poland, Slovakia, Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Republic).
Misfortunate Eastern and Central Europe seems to reemerge
The previously high mortality in Eastern and Central Europe (with the exception of West Germany) will thus face
a new threat of depopulation, this time primarily due to a long-term low or lowest low fertility.
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
EU Old and New Members: keep being divided
The most substantial percentage decrease will be experienced by the populations
in the fresh newcomers (Bulgaria, Romania),
then Baltic States (Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania),
followed by Central Europe (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary)
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Can fertility be enhanced ?
The role of family policy
The role of ART
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Two scenarios for the future numbers of children conceived with ART
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
Ma
lta
Lu
xe
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ou
rg
Cy
pru
s
Es
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Ne
the
rla
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s
Sp
ain
Po
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d
Ita
ly
Ge
rma
ny
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
Fra
nc
e
2025
2050
Projected numbers of ART infants
Assumptions: 2025 in each country 5% ART infants 2050 in each country 7% ART infants
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Proposal I Building a society for all ages Enabling to have family at any age Reconciliation of work/education and
family Freedom of choice
One standard life pattern should be avoided
education-career-children
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Proposal II
Access to ART treatment for people in need and at any age
Giving priority to policies slowing fertility ageing
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Conclusions■Europe will remain the world’s oldest region into the 21st century.
■ In the process of population aging, fertility was and still remains the primary important driver while mortality starts gaining increased importance.
■Population aging may be seen as a human success story—the triumph of public health, medical advancements, and economic development.(Global Aging : The challenge of success by K.Kinsella and D.R. Phillips, Population Bulletin, Vol.60, No.1, 2005)
■However, in the future, countries of former Eastern Europe will accumulate all of the disadvantages:
Being the oldest, experiencing the lowest fertility, shorter life expectancy, and having the lowest GDP.
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Thank you