learning scenarios
DESCRIPTION
These are the slides used by Willem Manders and Hans de Zwart to help facilitate a workshop at Online Educa 2011 in which learning scenarios were developed.TRANSCRIPT
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Learning Scenarios
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Willem Manders
Hans de Zwart
Laura Overton
Charles Jennings
David Mallon
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“Scenarios are stories about the future, but their purpose is to make better decisions in the present”
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"When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed"
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http://learningscenarios.org
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@lrnscen #lrnscen
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Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
Today (from 10:00 – 13:00)Workshop participants
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Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
This afternoonWillem, Hans and interested others
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Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
During the conferenceAll Business Educa participants
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Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
After the conferenceEverybody individually + teleconference
![Page 11: Learning Scenarios](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051515/553865b74a79593a698b478a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
![Page 12: Learning Scenarios](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051515/553865b74a79593a698b478a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Identifying driving forces
adapted from Kees van der Heijden
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The Systems Iceberg
(adapted from Peter Senge)
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News events
Patterns of systembehaviour (Trends)
Deep system structure(Driving Forces)
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Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
![Page 16: Learning Scenarios](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051515/553865b74a79593a698b478a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Uncertainties...
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In 60 minutes:
Time horizon: 5 – 10 years out (2015-2020)
1. Brainstorm key trends and uncertainties
Make sure to capture extreme outcomes:
2. Cluster, prioritise and eliminate duplicates
3. Report back to the whole group
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Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
![Page 19: Learning Scenarios](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051515/553865b74a79593a698b478a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
In 60 minutes:
1. Put two key independent uncertainties in a matrix
2. Describe scenario characteristics for each quadrant
3. Create a name for each quadrant
4. Report back to the whole group
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What is next?
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We will consolidate the scenarios and present them tomorrow
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We need your help!
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Our minimum requirements:
1. A newspaper headline for 2020
2. Three signals from the conference
that relate to a particular scenario
3. Reflection on how this impacts your strategy
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Touch base Friday afternoon...
Touch (virtual) base in two months?
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Sunset in SarasotaBy Flickr user livingonimpulseLicensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0) license
Chatham house© 2011 Google
Past and Future© Alex Slobodkin (licensed via istockphoto)
Tip of the iceberg© paul kline (licensed via istockphoto)
Decision making© mattjeacock (licensed via istockphoto)
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