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UnravellingComplexities

LearningPortfolioPartI&PartII

Name:ElouiseFowler

StudentNumber:u4540086

Degree:BachelorofArts/BachelorofAsianStudies

*N.B.PubliclectureIIisonpage36

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Week1

IntroductoryPanel

Auniversityisaplace‘towhichathousandschoolsmakecontributions;inwhichtheintellectmaysafelyrangeandspeculate.Itisaplacewhereinquiryispushedforward…discoveriesverifiedandperfected,and…errorexposed,bythecollisionofmindwithmind,andknowledgewithknowledge.’

Thisispossiblyoneofmyfavouritequotes.Forme,itencapsulateswhyIamatuniversity,andinparticularwhyIchosetoapplytoundertakethiscourse.Firstly,IseeuniversityasaplacewhereIamexposedtonewanddaringideasthatchallengemyperspectivessothatIviewtheworldwithamoreinformedopinion.Toacertainextent,thishashappenedinafewofmycourses–mostnotablyPoliticsandGovernmentintheUSAandStrategicandSecurityStudies.ThesetwocoursestaughtmeaboutcomplexpoliticalandstrategicperspectivesonUSforeignpolicyanditsrelationshipwithAustralia.

Thereis,however,afundamentalproblemwithuniversitiesatthemoment.Thatis,mostdegreeshavelimitsonhowmany‘outoffaculty’coursesastudentcando.TomethisseemsantitheticaltotheideasarticulatedbyJohnHenryNewman.Howarestudentsabletoquestiontheirdisciplinaryperspectivesiftheyarenotintroducedtonewideasfrominter‐disciplinarystudies?

IdefinitelyknowthatmyunderstandingofUSforeignpolicywouldhavebeenaidedbytheeconomicsandlawdisciplines.Aneconomicsperspective,couldhaveinformedmeaboutthetechnicalaspectsoftheUS‐Australiafree‐tradeagreement.ThelegalperspectivewouldhaveenlightenedmetotheinternationallawobligationsthattheUSissubjectto.Ifallofthesestudyoptionswereavailabletome,Iwouldbemoreequippedwhentaskedwithanalysingacomplexproblemonthissubjectarea.ButsinceIamanAsianStudies/Artsstudent,Iamlimitedtothesetwofacultiesandamsubsequentlyunabletobenefitfromsuchawell‐roundededucation.

UnravellingComplexitiesisawonderfulopportunitytoengageinawell‐roundededucationandshouldbeshowcasedtotherestofANUtodemonstratethatinter‐disciplinarystudyispossible,andaboveall,important.

SinceIwasinThailand,completingtheANU’sSouthEastAsianFrontierscourse,Iwasunabletoattendthepanelortutorialforthisweek.IfIwereatthepanel,IwouldhaveaskedtheguestlecturerswhethertheythoughtANUshouldintroduceaninter‐disciplinaryaspecttoalldegrees,particularlythedoubledegrees–whichareespeciallylimited.

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Ticket

IwouldliketousemybackgroundasanAsianstudiesstudentandapplytheinterdisciplinaryelementstaughtintheViceChancellor’scoursetobetterunderstandAustralia’scomplexrelationshipwithAsia.Asignificantaspectofthisrelationshipis,andwillcontinuetobe,thedebateoverclimatechangeandwhoismostresponsibleforitsprevention.ThisdilemmawasatthecoreofthefailedCopenhagennegotiations.Thepoliticsofclimatechangetraversesmanydisciplines.TherearemanydifferingperspectivesinAsianStudiesonhowAustraliashouldapproachanincreasinglypowerfulandwealthyAsia.Equippedwiththeinterdisciplinaryanalyticalskillsobtainedbythiscourse,Ihopetofigureoutwhichperspectivesarereasonableandwhicharenot.

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Week2

WickedProblems

Thispanelwasenlighteningforacoupleofreasons.BeforeattendingthispanelIusedthewords‘complex’and‘complicated’interchangeably.TheOxfordDictionarydefinitionsdemonstratewhyIthoughtthiswasso.Asshownbelow,thedefinitionsareessentiallyidentical.

Complicated:

• Consistingofmanyinterconnectingpartsorelements;intricate:acomplicatedstereosystem

• Involvingmanydifferentandconfusingaspects:alongandcomplicatedsaga1

Complex:

• Consistingofmanydifferentandconnectedparts:acomplexnetworkofwaterchannels

• Noteasytoanalyseorunderstand;complicatedorintricate:acomplexpersonalitythesituationismorecomplexthanitappears

NowIunderstandthatthereareusefulanddefinabledifferencesbetweenthemeaningsofthetwowords.StevenCork’sdefinitionswillalwaysstaywithmebecausetheyarevaluabletoolstousewhentryingtounderstandthemanydifferentandseeminglyunsolvableissuesthatinhabittheworld.WhenIusethewords,‘complex’and‘complicated’inthislearningportfolio,IamreferringtoStevenCork’sdefinitions.

Complex

• Difficulttodetermineboundaries• Notjustsimplecausesandeffects• Feedbackloops;thesnowballeffect

Complicated

• Manycomponents• Understandableandpredictableprocessesandrules;acomplicatedpiece

ofmachinery

Forthetutorial,ChrisinstructedustoplaceproblemsthatfaceAustraliansocietyintocategoriesfrom‘mostwicked’to‘leastwicked.’Problemsincluded:climatechangeinAustralia,Australia‐Chinarelations,mentalhealthinruralAustraliaandreligioussymbolsinpubliclife.Manypeopleplacedtheirissuesinthe‘VeryWickedProblems’box.

1http://oxforddictionaries.com/view/entry/m_en_gb0168430#m_en_gb0168430

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Iwastaskedwiththeplacingtheissueof‘Australia‐Chinarelations’inoneoftheboxes.Whilethisisobviouslyanextremelycomplexproblemthatandshouldhavebeenplacedinboxnumbernine,IdecidedtoplaydevilsadvocatebyputtingmydisciplinaryhatonandassumingthepositionofaRealist(fromtheinternationalrelationsdiscipline).Realiststhinkthattherearedefinablyrightandwrongperspectivesandsolutions.AssuchIplacedmyproblemintobox2.Ididthistoemphasisethepointthattheperceptionofthecomplexityofaproblemisusuallymadefromaparticularperspective.Thusthesameanalysiscanbeappliedtofindingasolutiontothecomplexproblem–perspectiveformsopinion.

Diversity

Complexity

Singleparty Multipleparties,eachhavingonlysomeoftherelevantknowledge

Multipleparties,conflictinginvalues/interests

Bothproblemandsolutionsknown

HeifetzType1

Tameproblem

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Australia‐ChinaRelationsfromaRealist’sperspective.

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Problemknown,solutionnotknown.

Relationshipbetweencauseandeffectunclear.

Heifetz2

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WickedProblem

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NeitherProblemnorsolutionknown

Heifetz3

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WickedProblem

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VeryWickedProblem

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Thisexercisetaughtmethatthereisalwaysasolutiontoaproblem.Whetherit’srightoreffectiveisamatterofperspective.Ihavecometotheconclusion,whichmaychangeoverthecourse,thatitisthesedifferencesofopinionandthesubsequentsolutionsthatmakeproblemscomplex.

AnotherelementtocomplexproblemsistheBlackSwan.TheBlackSwanarticlehighlightedthatweformourperspectivesontheworldthroughobservationand

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experience.Assuch,thingswe’reunawareof,aren’tfactoredintoourperspectiveslargelybecausehumansare‘blindwithrespecttorandomness.’

Thingswedoknowtendtodictatehowweseetheworld.Thisblinkersustowhatcouldhappen.Itisthethingswedon’tknowthatarethemostdangerousbecausewecan’tprepareforthem.

PhilipDelves,aformerjournalistattheTelegraphintheUK,wroteabookcalled‘WhatTheyTeachYouatHarvardBusinessSchool(HBS):YearsInsidetheCauldronofCapitalism.’Toparaphrase,heconcludedthatthe$175,000hespentattheHBSwasnotworthitbecauseitdidnotfactorintheBlackSwanconcept.Hestated‘Forallitsvastreputation,powerandpomposity,youfeelthatHBSneitherunderstandsthecomplexitynoracknowledgesthechaoticunpredictabilityoftheworldeconomyanybetterthananyoneelse.’2Perhaps,Philipshouldhavesavedhismoneyandtakenthe‘UnravellingComplexities’coursethissemester,hecouldhavelearntthatinthesecondweek!

2http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/books/article4443213.ece

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Ticket

Wewilldiscuss thePreliminaryReading, thenatureofWickedProblems,

andhowwecanapproachBlackSwanthinking.

Thearticle,‘WickedProblems:TheImplicationsforPublicManagement’wasaninsightfulpiecewhichdrewontheexampleofsocialpolicymakingtoexplainthenatureof‘wickedproblems.’ThearticledrewonRittelandWebber’spaper,‘DilemmasinaGeneralTheoryofPlanning.’RittelandWeber’spaperdeclaredthatthedaysofsolvingmajorproblemsthroughan‘engineering’approachhadended.Instead,toreflectamorepluralisticmodernsocietythatexhibitsdifferingvaluesandaspirations,modernproblemsolvingnowgenerallyreliesondifferingperspectivesratherthanscientificcertitudes.Assuch,‘wickedproblems’areseenaslinkedtosocialpluralismwheresolutionstotheseproblemsarenottrue‐or‐false,butgoodorbad.Consequently,thereisnosinglebestapproachtotacklingsuchproblems.Thisarticlehighlightsthatone’sperspectivedeterminesonesunderstandingofcomplexproblemsandsolutions.

TheBlackSwanconceptneatlycomplimentsthisarticle.Naturally,humansformtheiropinionsontheirobservationsandexperiences,ratherthansomethingthatisinconceivable.Hence,thearticlehighlightsthatthethingswedon’tknowcan’tinformourperspectives.Whilethismayseemobvious,theconsequencesofignorancearerarelycontemplated.Humansarenotinthehabitofdealingwithuncertainlyorunpredictability.Failingtodealwiththeunexpected,isoneofthelargestproblemspeoplefacewhentryingtodecipheracomplexproblem.

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Week3

CollapseinSystemsandNetworks

Fromthetimehumanswalkedtheplanet,systemsandnetworkshavebeenintegralpartsofourlivesbecausetheyprovideasemblanceofstructuretoourchaoticandunpredictableworld.Ideally,systemsandnetworksconnectdisparateelementstoensurethattheysynthesisetosolveaproblem.Inreality,systemsarerarelyasstreamlinedasthis.Elementsofsystemssometimescontradicteachotherthusharmthesystemoverallorsimplydon’tsolvetheproblem.

Themainthemeforthisweekhasbeentheimportanceofrelationshipswithinsystemstoconnectdifferingperspectives.Whetheritisdifferingperspectivesonhowaproblemshouldbetackledorhowtosolveaproblembyincorporatingallofthosedifferingperspectives.Thisweekshowedtheimportanceofcreatingsystems,networksandframeworkstodealwithcomplexproblems.

Inthereadingsfromweektwo,specifically‘wickedproblems,’theauthorsarticulatedtheviewthattheengineersperspectivewasover.Thatisthepurelyscientific,‘rightorwrong’wayofapproachingproblemshadbeenabolished.Dr.ShayneFlintconfirmedthis.Hestatedthatengineersdealwithcomplexityby‘separatingconcerns,’thatisbreakinguptheproblemintodifferingdisciplines(bothinsideengineeringandinaninterdisciplinaryfashion)tosolvetheoverarchingdilemma.Thiscouldinvolvesolvingtheproblembyseparatingtheconcernsintoelectrical,mechanicalorcivildecompositionaswellasincorporatingcross‐disciplinarycollaborativeefforts.Thesemightincludedrawingonphysics,chemistry,biology,engineering,medicine,sociologytosolveproblemslikesendingamantothemoonandcreatingtheiphone.ThishighlightedthepointofwhatIperceivetobethepointofUnravellingComplexities,theimportanceofinterdisciplinaryperspectivesoncomplexproblemsolving.

Dr.Flintsaidthat‘Focusingonthingsratherthanrelationshipsbetweenthingsoftenfailstodealeffectivelywithcontextualdynamics.’ThiswasthemostimportantlessonIlearntthisweek.TimAndersonhostedawonderfultutorialwherethispointwasclearlydemonstrated.Hesplitusintwogroupsandaskedustocreatethetallesttowerfromspaghettiandmarshmallows.Mygroupdecidedtobuildatowerbyfirst‘securingthebase.’Whatweforgottodowasfocusontherelationshipbetweenalloftheelementsinthetower.Thuswecreatedastructurethatwasunsoundandcollapsed.Thislessoncanbeappliedtoallcomplexproblem‐solvingissues.

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Ticket

ConfusingWord:‘Peace’

Itwasunclearwhattheword‘peace’meantintheIntergovernmentalOrganizationsandtheKantianPeace:ANetworkPerspectivearticle.Diditmeanthecessationofaninter‐statewar,acivilwaroradictatorship?IfwelookatBurma,somemaysaythatitispeacefulbecauseitisnotatwarwithanothernation.OthersmightarguethattheBurmeseJuntaiswagingawaragainstitscitizenstoensurethattheJuntaretainspower.ThesepeoplewouldconsiderBurmatobeun‐peaceful.ToanalysetheimpactthatIGOshaveon‘creatingpeace,’thedefinitionmustfirstbesettled.

Complexissue:EmissionsTradingScheme(ETS)

Labor’sEmissionstradingScheme(ETS)iscomplicatedbecauseitconsistsofanumberofsynthesisedeconomicandscientificcomponents.Thiscomplicatedschemeisultimatelyunderstandableandpredictable,whichpreventsitfrombeingcomplex.ThecomplexpartoftheETSistryingtoimplementitintoAustralianlaw.Thereareanumberofactors,whichdependingonyourperspectivecanberationalandirrational,aswellasnumerousfactorsthatimpactuponwhethertheschemewillbepassedintolaw.Theseelementscreateanetworkthatconsistsofcompetingandcomplementaryinterests,whichinturnrenderstheoutcomeunpredictable.Thereforemakingthisissuecomplex.

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Week4

CollapseofEmpires

Usingtheexampleofthe‘FallofRome,’PaulBurtondemonstratedthattherearemanydifferentversionsofhistory.Hearticulatedthateventhoughtherearemanyversions,humansareattractedtocertaintyandthuscreatetraditionalnarrativestomakesenseofuncertainty.Thesedominantperspectivesonwhatisperceivedtohavehappenedbecomethe‘narrativearc.’Inmyopinion,Ithinkthatthelogicbehind‘narrativearc’formationcanbeappliedtohowpeopletrytounderstandcontemporarycomplexproblems.Thatis,peoplearefacedwithanumberofperspectives,allofwhichareplaguedbyuncertainty,andfromthistheyattempttoformperspectivesandmakedecisions.Assuch,thethemeforthisweekisthenegativeimpactof‘narrativearcs’whentryingtounderstandcomplexissues.

Theformationof‘narrativearcs’

Paulsaidthatitisextraordinarilydifficulttocreateanaccuratehistorywhenthereisonlyasmallpoolofsourcestodrawfrom.Thefragmentarystateofmanyancienthistoricalsourcesmeansthathistorycanbebereftofcontextandagenda,andthusinaccurate.Inadditiontothis,historianscanbeswampedbytoomanysources.TheliteratureonWorldWarTwoisanexampleofthis.Therearesomanysourcesandcompetingperspectives.Assuch,thecomplexityofdiscoveringwhatactuallyhappenedinmodernhistoryisalmostasdifficultasancienthistory.Thisproblemiscompounded,inbothancientandmodernhistory,whendominantperspectivesformfromtheavailablesources–creating‘narrativearcs.’

JoanBeumontmentionedtheANZACLegendasanexampleofa‘narrativearc’inAustralianhistory.ThedisasteratGallipolicentredontheBritishmakingthefatalerrortolandatthewrongTurkishbeach.TheeventhasbeenromanticisedtosuchanextentinAustralia,thatonecouldbeforgivenfornotknowingthattheGallipolicampaignwasadisaster.TheANZAC‘narrativearc’choosestofocusonmateship,ratherthanthe26111AustraliancasualtiesandthemistakesmadebytheBritishofficers.This‘narrativearc’showshoweasilyinformationcanbemanipulatedtosuitaparticularperspective.

Thuswhentryingtounravelcomplexproblems,onemustbeawareofthemanipulationofinformationandtryto‘know’asmuchaspossiblebeforeformulatingaperspective.

Contemporary‘NarrativeArcs’

Formationsof‘narrativearcs’areunfortunatelynotlimitedtothedisciplineofhistory.Wecansee,inmostdisciplines,certaintheoriesorideasthathavegainedmeritnotbecausetheyarebetterthananyotheridea,butsimplybecausetherehasbeenamassmovementtosupportorcultivatethatparticularperspective.Acontemporary‘narrativearc’couldbethewidespread

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misinformationcampaignlaunchedbytheBushAdministration,whichspreadthefalseideathatIraqhadweaponsofmassdestruction.Theproblemwith‘narrativearcs’isthattheyblinkerotherwaysofthinkingaboutaneventorissueanddeemphasiseanywhiffofuncertaintyortheunknown.AstheBlackSwanconcepthighlights,disregardinguncertaintyisoneofhumankindsgreatestweaknesses.Thetutorialdidnotmention‘narrativearcs,’whichIfeltwasthemostfascinatingaspectoftheweek.Instead,themostinterestingpartofthetutorialwaswheneveryonewastaskedwithcompletingawordassociationwiththewords‘collapse’and‘empire.’Themostinterestingaspectofthisexercisewasthateachwordassociationfor‘collapse’wassimilar.Thesamewasthecasefortheword‘empire.’Infact,noneofthedefinitionscontradictedeachother.Wecansee,fromthissmallexample,howeasyitistonotthinkoutsidethebox.Itshowshoweasilypeopleareinfluencedbyeachotherand‘group‐think.’Assuchitallowsonetobetterunderstandtheconceptofthe‘narrativearc’becauseitshowshoweasyitisforhumanstosimplyfollowoneanotherwithoutquestion.Ascarythought.

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Ticket

WhatmainpointsdoesKennedymake?

Inthisbook,Kennedymadethecentralpointthatmilitaryconflictis‘alwaysexaminedinthecontextofeconomicchange.’Buildingonthisconcept,hearguedthatthetriumphorcollapseofanyoneGreatPowerhasusuallybeenasaresultoflengthyfightingbyitsarmedforcesandeffectiveorineffectiveutilisationofthestate’sproductiveeconomicresources,relativetotheotherleadingnations.Whilenotingthatthereareofcourseotherelementsapartfromthemilitaryandeconomywhichdeterminenationsstrengths,hestatedthat‘wealthisusuallyneededtounderpinmilitarypower,andmilitarypowerifusuallyneededtoacquireandprotectwealth.’

Writeabriefdescriptionofsomethingthatmaybeconsideredanempireandwhy.

Anempireisanentitythathasamonopolyoveraparticulararea.Googleisahorizontallyintegratedempirethatseemstobethemasterofalltrades.Initselfitcanprovideanemailservice,images,Googleearth,Googlemaps,GooglescholarandGoogletranslator.GooglecouldbeconsideredanempirebecauseithasaclearmonopolyoverthedisseminationofinformationontheInternet.

Writedownanexampleofaconceptfromyourdisciplineorbackground

thathasevolvedovertime.

TheroleofwomeninWesternsocietyhasevolvedsubstantiallyovertime.Womenweretraditionallyseenhousewiveswhocaredfortheirchildrenandhusbands.TheTwoWorldWarshelpedtochangethenotionofawoman’srole.Womenwereexpectedtoworkintraditionallymasculinejobsbecausemanyofthemenhadjoinedthemilitary.Despitetheserolechangesduringthewar,itwasn’tuntilthe1960sthatwomencollectivefoughtforrealchange.Thewomen’sliberationmovementhopedtoempowerwomenbychangingtheculturalmindsetsaboutwomen’sroles,aspirationsandabilities.Althoughthewomen’smovementhasfoughtwithvaryingsuccessformanythings,suchasequalpayforequalwork,equalemploymentopportunitiesandinsomecasesevenpaidmaternityleave,thereisstillalongwaytogobeforetheperceivedroleofwomeninsocietypermanentlychanges.

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Week5

WhatisDevelopment?

Thecomplexityofeffectiveaidgivingwasthethemeforthisweek.Themainfocusforthisweekwas:whichcountriesneedaid?Theroleofpoliticsinaidgivingandhowitisbestdelivered.

Whoneedsaid?

Stevenarticulatedthattheinternationalnormsassociating‘rich’countriesasthemostpowerful,arechanging.‘Poor’countriesarenowgainingprominenceandpowerontheinternationalstage.Incomebracketsdeterminewhichcountriesarerichandpoor.Thiseconomicperspective–brandingcountriesaccordingtotheirincomebracketsisaneasywaytoquicklycomprehendthestandardoflivingforavastsumofpeopleinthatnation.Although,Iamstillnotsureaboutusingthiseconomicperspectiveasthesoledeterminanttoascertaintheincomebracketofanation.Fromasocialscienceperspective,Istillthinktherecanbealotsaidformeasuringaccesstoeducationandhealthtodeterminethe‘wealth’ofacountry.

ThereisanemergingtrendtowardslowincomebracketcountriessuchasChinabecomingincreasinglypowerfulontheworldstage.Thisbegsthequestion‐whoneedsaid?Beforethispanel,Ibelievedthatallcountriesinthelowincomebracketdeservedaid.DiscoveringatthispanelthatChinaisinthelowincomebrackethasquestionedmystance.SurlyChina,anemergingcountrywithaneconomythatisproppinguptheworldeconomyaftertheGlobalFinancialCrisis(GFC),doesnotneedaid.ThiswasessentiallySteven’sconclusion.ButaidisstilldesperatelyneededinAfricancountrieswherethereeconomiesaren’tasstrongasemergingnations.Sowhydogovernmentsstillprovideaidtoemergingcountries?Thisleadsneatlyintothepoliticsofgivingaid.

Thepoliticsofgivingaid

Aiddonationtoemergingcountriesappearstobeallaboutcurryingfavourwithacountrythatwillbecomepowerfulinthenearfuture.DrawingfrommyAsianStudiesbackground,andspecificallyacourseIdidcalled‘EngagingAsia’,itisclearwhyAustraliaprovidesaidtocountrieslikeChina.

IacknowledgedinmyweekthreeentrythattherearemanydifferingperspectivesontheAustralia‐Chinarelationship.OneperspectiveisthatChinaisathreattoAustralia’ssecurity.OtherssaythatChinaiseconomicpowerhousethatAustraliamustbeintimatelyinvolvedwith.ThismakesmanagingtheAustralia‐Chinarelationshipcomplextonavigatebecausethereareanumberofstakeholderswithdifferingperspectivesonwhatagendasaremostworthy.Thisrelationshipisapolicy‐makersnightmare.ThecomplexityofthisrelationshipwashighlightedinthemostrecentDefenceWhitePaper.Inonesection,Chinawasathreat.Inanother,itwasacountrythatAustraliahadtobecomecloserwith,economicallyandpolitically.

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Australia’saidrelationshipwithChinaseemstotraversethesetwoperspectives.ItcanbeseenasAustralia’sattemptformulateapositivepoliticalrelationshipwithChina,inordertoreducetheChinese’ssuspicionsthatAustraliaconsidersittobea‘perceivedsecuritythreat.’ThisisjustonesolutionthatpolicymakershaveformulatedtocombattheAustralia’scomplexandunpredictablerelationshipwithChina.

Howisaidbestdelivered?

InaSecurityandStrategicStudiescourseIundertook,westudiedhumansecurity.OneofthequestionsposedbythecoursewaswhetherNGOsorgovernmentaid‐donersweremoreeffectiveatadministeringaid.IwantedtoaskDr.Howeswhichmethodhepreferred,buttheopportunitywasnotprovided.

Luckilyforme,thereadingsthisweekwere,inpart,aboutGeoffreySaches’opiniononeffectiveaiddelivery.AccordingtoSaches,aidisbestdeliveredwithoutapoliticalagenda.AsImentionedinthisweeksticket,oneofthemostinfluentialaidgivinginstitutions,theIMF,attachedpoliticalideologytoitsdeliveryofaid.TheIMF’sideologydeliveredfinancialaidtodevelopingcountriesontheconditionthatthecountrywouldrestructureitseconomytobecomefree‐marketoriented,focusondebtreductionandslashpublicspending.JosephSteiglitzfirmlybelievedthatthispolicycontributedtobringingabouttheAsianFinancialCrisis.AssuchtheIMFhasslightlysofteneditshardideologicaledgeandacknowledgesthatitneedstobemoreflexiblewithitslendingpracticesandneednotplaceundueemphasisonthereductionofpublicspending.

TheAsianFinancialCrisisclearlyimpactedtheIMF’spolicies.Whatisclearisthatthenarrativearc,that‘capitalismwasinfallible,’whichwascreatedaftertheUnitedStates’victoryovertheSovietUnion,waschallengedbytheadventoftheAsianFinancialCrisis.

ThisarticlerelatestoIndonesia’srelationshipwiththeIMFaftertheAsianFinancialCrisis:http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/04/14/the‐%E2%80%98new%E2%80%99‐imf‐and‐indonesia‐it‐time‐turn‐page.html

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Ticket

1. Inthesearticles,itisclearfortworeasons,thatSachsisscepticaloftheeffectivenessofgovernmentaid.Heisconcernedabouttheeffectivenessofgovernment‐provided‐aidandconsequentlyhethinksprivateinstitutionswithagoodtrackrecordshoulddistributethemoney.

• HeiscriticaloftheroleofUSAID.Hearticulatedthatitactsasanadjunct

toUSmilitaryandforeignpolicyratherthanoperatingasaworld‐leadingdevelopmentinstitution.

• SachswantsmoneygiventoHaiti,butdoesn’twantthemoneytogothroughtheUSgovernment.ThemoneyshouldbemanagedbytheInter‐AmericanDevelopmentBank(IADB).Itseemsthatheissayingthatstate‐basedaidgivingisineffectiveandmustbeadministeredbyinstitutionswithaproventrack‐recordindealingeffectivelywithdevelopingnations.

• Healsohighlightsthattheseinsititonsmustprovidemoneytolocallycontrolleddevelopment.Essentiallyhearguesthatlocalempowermentreducesdependency.

1. Secondly,heisconcernedaboutaccountabilitymechanismsappliedto

aid‐givingnations.

• TheGuardianarticlehighlightsthataidaccountabilityisacomplexissuetomanagebecausetherearen’tinternationalaccountabilitymechanismsthattrackpromisesandoutcomes.Sincethepromisesmadeininternationalnegotiationsrelyonagreement,ratherthanthelaw,itseemsimprobablethataninternationalaccountabilitymechanismwillbeeffectiveinenforcingdecisions.

1. GeneralObservations

• TheCNNarticleonSachsdemonstratedthateconomistsexperimenton

developingeconomiestoseeiftheycaninfluenceapositiveoutcome.• IwenttoapubliclecturebyJosephSteiglitz,whodeclaredthatthe

InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)andWorldBank(WB)havestoppedexperimentingondevelopingeconomieswithhard‐linefreemarketeconomicsbecauseithasprovennottowork.

• Thisfitsintotheconceptofthenarrativearc.TheUS’svictoryintheColdWarwasseenbymanyasthetriumphoffree‐marketcapitalism.Assuch,the‘positivebenefits’ofmarket‐capitalismwereemphasisedandbecameinstitutionalisedintothepoliciesoftheWBandtheIMF.Thismeantthatallcountries,iftheywantedaid,hadtorestructuretheireconomytoa‘successfulcapitalistmodel.’Thenarrative,whichdeterminedIMFandWorldBankpolicy,wasdebunkedaftertheAsianFinancialCrisis.

• Thisshowsthattherehasbeenachangeintheaid‐giving‘narrativearc’intheinternationalrealm.

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PartII

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Week6

FinancialCrisis

Introduction

IthoughtbothPrasanaGaiandReneeFry’slectureswereinterestingandclear.They both explained in great detail how the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)occurred.HoweverIthinkthattheirlectureslackedanysubstantiveanalysisonwhytheGFCoccurred.Economicpolicymakers in theUSandmanyothercountriesaround theworldwere (and still are) informed by the neo‐liberal economic perspective whichessentially dictates that the free‐market is paramount and that governmentshouldbediscouragedfromregulating themarket.FryandGaididnotanalysethetheoreticaldebatebehindthecollapse,whichIthickwouldhavebeenquiteuseful for explainingwhy the GFC occurred. Frommy perspective, I think themain theme for thisweek centerson theneed tounderstand the theories thatinformpolicy‐makers.

Understandthetheoriesthatinformpolicy­makersA lack of government regulation of themarket in theUSwas one of themainfactorsthatledtothesub‐primemortgagecrisisandsubsequentlytheGFC.Theproblem here, likemany other policy areas, is that a dominant perspective tomaintain the neo‐liberal ‘anti‐regulation’ status quo pervades debate becausepeoplewith vested interests back this perspective. I think theGlobal FinancialCrisis should call into question the dominant way of seeing and practicingeconomics,andseektofindalternative,safestrategiesthatwillhelpusavoidthesameproblemsinthefuture.Apart from not wanting to regulate the market due to ideological reasons, Ireflected during the tutorial on the inability of the government tocomprehensivelyregulatethefinancialmarketsbecauseoperatorsintheglobaleconomicframeworkoftenknowhowtomoveaheadoftheregulationcurve,sotheyareneveractuallydoinganythingtechnicallyillegal.

PanelQuestion

Do you think the neo‐liberal economic perspective will continue to informeconomicpolicymakingtheUS?

Iwould have asked this question because I have heardmany political sciencelecturersspeakonthetopicand itwouldbe interestingtohearaneconomist’sperspectiveontheissue.

Connections

(1) Connectionswithinthecourse

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This week connects with a theme discussed in week four, the Collapse ofEmpires. In week four we learnt about how ‘narrative arcs’ inform debate. Anarrativearcwasdescribedasbeingthedominantviewonanissue.Wecanseethat for years, the neo‐liberal way of running the economy has been thedominant narrative arc which has informed policymakers. I wonder whetherthiswillchangeinthefuture?

(2) Connectionwithanothercourse

In Security and Strategic studies we learnt about China’s decision to save itscapital after the Asian Financial Crisis. In lectures on this, the lecturer arguedthatChina’sdecisiontodothispreventedtheGFCfrombeingworsebecause itallowedChinatocontinuebuyingUSimports–whichhelpedtostimulatetheUSeconomyduringtheworstofthecrisis.

(3) Connectionwithcontemporaryissue

Many European countries have been affected by the GFC. Some Europeanpoliticiansonthe‘right’haveseentheglobalfinancialcrisisasanopportunitytocut welfare payments in the name of ‘fiscal restraint’ in a time of ecnomicuncertainty.Observerssuspectthatthisisawayofdismantlingthewelfarestateand moving towards a more neo‐liberal approach to economic management.Which is ironic, considering a lack of regulation ofmarkets (a key neo‐liberaltenant)wasarguablyoneofthegreatestfactorsthatcontributedtotheGFC.

Toolbox

(1) Understand the theories that inform policy‐makers, only then will you beabletopredicttheiractions.

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Ticket

The ‘Affluenza’ piece demonstrates that people inAustralia are never satisfiedwiththeirpersonaleconomicsituationbecausesomeoneisalwaysearningmorethan them. Their lives are driven by a sense of lack rather than a sense ofrealisticappreciationforwhatthey’vegot.Thispieceexplainsthatpeoplearedrivenbyaninsatiabledesiretoberelativelywealthierthantheircompatriots.ThisdesireisclearlyobviousintheAustralianeconomy,whereworkhourshavesteadilyincreasedovertheyears.Itisunclearwhetherthedesiretobewealthierisaproductofhumanbiology,orwhetheritisdrivenbythecapitalistconsumerculturethatdominatesAustralia.Perhapsitisamixtureofthetwo.The Credit Crisis video was the most comprehensive explanation of the sub‐primecrisisthatIhaveeverseen.Itdemonstratedthatthecrisiswascreatedoutofadesiretomakemoremoney.Themostobviousproblemwasthatsoundlawsor institutions did not regulate this desire. As such, lenders and investmentcompanieswereabletobeasunscrupulousastheywished,knowingthattherewouldn’tbeanymajorlegalramifications.Threethingsthatmakethefinancialsystemcomplex:

1. Lawmakers and regulators can’t always be up‐to‐date with methods ofinvestment. As such they are unable to legislate and arbitrate in someareas.TheBackSwanstrikesagain.

2. Itdifficultforpoliticianstomakelawstoregulatethemarketwhentheirmajorcampaigndonorswouldbe thecompanies that suffer.Catering tothe many different interest groups is a ‘wicked problem’ that makesgovernmentregulationoftheeconomyacomplexproblem.

3. The interconnected nature of world economies makes it difficult forindividualcountriestocontrolwhichelements(goodorbad)affectthem.

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Week7

AddressingIndigenousDisadvantage

Introduction

Tryingtosolvetheproblemofindigenousdisadvantagehasbeenachallengeformany decades. As awealthy country, Australia should theoretically be able toimprovelivingstandardsofIndigenousAustralians,thecomplexityoftheissueiscentersonthefactthatnoonecandecidehowitshouldbedone.

Thisdebateabout‘how’theIndigenousdisadvantageshouldbeaddressedliesinthe shadow of how to effectively balance the preservation of traditionalIndigenousidentitywithmodernAustralianapproaches(themainthemeforthisweek).Thisisachargedandhighlypolarizingdebatewhichisoftendominatedby two camps. On one side the neo‐liberals argue if communities aren’teconomicallyviable,theyshouldbeshutdown.Onothersideofthedebatesittheculturalrelativistswhobelievethatpoliciesshouldbedesignedtofocusonthepreservationofindigenousculture.

This framework is entirely unhelpful because any policy proposed for dealingwithhowtheindigenousdisadvantagecouldbereducedisautomaticallyslottedinto either side of this debate. This framework automatically polarizes thedebate, and decades of policy discussions indicate that this polarization isunhelpful.EffectivelybalancethepreservationoftraditionalIndigenousidentitywithmodern

Australianapproaches

JohnTaylor’slecturequotedKeithWindschuttle,whoisaclearproponentoftheneo‐liberalperspective:“TheremoteAboriginesareloadedwithtwineconomicburdens: they inhabit regions that have no jobs or business opportunities andthestategivesthemanincomewithnoeffortontheirpart.Theonlysolutionistostopfundingandthusclosedownallthosesettlementswhereunemploymentischronicandwheretherearenoeconomicprospects,whichismostofthem.”ItisquiteevidentthatWindshuttleblatantlydisregardstheimportanceofthelandinthepreservationofIndigenousculture.Ihavealwaysdisagreedwiththeneo‐liberal argument on this topic and this quote demonstrated the worst‐of‐the‐worstneo‐liberalperspectives.Iamabigbelieverthatcommunitiesneedtofindsolutions that suit them.But I think it isamistake to fall into theculturalrelativist argument that the communities should do whatever suits themcontrary to basic standards of health and education in a highly developedcountryinthe21stcentury.Clearlyhealthstatisticssuggestthatneithersideofthe debate has been successfulwith ‘Closing the gap’ ormanaged to come upwith a sustainable solution to the reduction of Indigenous disadvantage. IwastotallyshockedtoseePeterRadoll’sgraphfromthelecturewhichdemonstratedthatthelifeexpectancyofIndigenousAustralianswas20yearslowerthannon‐indigenousAustralians.Radoll’slecturefocusedontheneedofIndigenoushighereducationtohelpsolve

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thecomplexproblemofindigenousdisadvantage.HearguedthatitishelpfulforIndigenousstudentstostudyteachingornursingbecauseitwouldbebeneficialforthemtobringthoseskillsbacktotheircommunity.Irecentlyhelpedoutwitha project at Burgmann College which has a partnership with Doomagee inNorthernAustralia.Theaimoftheproject is tobringkidsfromthecommunitydowntoCanberratogivethemtheopportunitytopursuehighschool,TAFEoruniversity. One of themost problems that they face, which wasmentioned inRandall’slecture,isthattheybecomeaccustomedtomodernAustraliancitylifeand don’twant to go home. Randall agreed that thiswas a huge problem andstated that: ‘Successbreeds successbut there is a concern that as youbecomemoreeducatedyouthenloseyourIndigenousidentityastheyare immersedinthedominantcultureofwesterneducationinuniversity.’All research suggests that education is the key to empowerment. But in theIndigenous context, it’s a double‐edged sword because education oftenmeansthat Indigenous students loose substantial contactwith their cultural heritage.Thisissuealoneclearlydemonstratesthatthisistrulyawickedproblem.Preparingforthetutorial,IfounditusefultodrawuponthetableusedbyHead&Alford in the first coupleofweeks todeterminehow ‘wicked’ thisparticularproblemis.Ibelievetheproblemofindigenousdisadvantageranksamongstthemost wicked problems for Australian policy‐makers, because likeAfghanistanclimate change, the problem has multiple parties conflicting ininterests/values,andneithertheproblemnorsolutionareclearlyknown.

PanelQuestion

How should policy makers balance the obligation to improve health andeducationstandardsinremoteAboriginalcommunitieswhilstremainingsensitivetotraditionalculturalpracticesandvalues?Ithinkthisisanimportantquestionbecauseitgoestotheheartoftheproblemof indigenous inequality in Australia, that being the conflicting views ofstakeholdersastowhatthemostsuitableapproachis.

Connections

(1) Connectionswithinthecourseandacontemporaryissue

Solving the problems of indigenous disadvantage comes down to how theprogramsshouldbe structured todeterminewhere themoneyshouldgo.Thisissue is linked to the problems that occur in Australia’s aid giving efforts, asdemonstrated inweek5ofmy learningportfolio.Australia’s aid‐givingefforts,similar to ‘close the gap,’ are determinedby the frameworkof political debatesurroundinghowthemoneyshouldbespent.

(2) Connectionwithanothercourse

This issue of trying to balance the preservation of indigenous identity withmodernAustralian perspectiveswas evident in a course I completed last yearcalled Politics in Indonesia. Indonesia is amulti‐ethnic countrywhich has had

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many issueswith tryingtoreconcile itsmultiple identities.DuringtheSukarnoera, Pancacillawas created. It focused on the 5most important elements thatbound Indonesian society together. It was an attempt to synthesise all of thecompetingidentitiesinsociety.Thesuccessofthispolicyisdebatable,butwhatthisdemonstratesisthattryingtoreconcilecompetingidentitiesinsocietyisnotuniquetoAustralia.

Toolbox

1. When devising policy, remember that all policy is created in light of abroaderdebate,butdon’tlettheparametersofthedebatelimitwhatyouthinkshouldbedone.

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Ticket

What does each text imply are the main problems facing Indigenous

Australians, and attempts to address them? Do they point to many

problems,orafewunderlyingones?

I’ve chosen to focus on one question and two articles for this ticket. The twoarticles that Idraw fromcenteraround the failureofpolicymakers to identifytheproblem,andtheinadequatepolicythatissubsequentlycreated.PeasonarticulatesthatpolicymakersfocusonthenegativehistoricalIndigenousexperiencestoexplainsubstanceabuse,ratherthanfocusingontherealcause–addiction. Pearson articulated that for many young Aboriginals, historicalproblems aren’t the driving force that determine substance abuse. To fix this,Pearsonarguesthatpolicymakersmustacknowledgethefundamentalproblemofaddiction.Otherwisepolicymakerswillbe treatingthewrongproblemsandnothingwillchange.Gary, has another (somemay say, racist) take on the situation.He argues thatindigenousculture,isadrawbackwhenitcomestoAboriginalsintegratinginto‘Australian’ society. He strongly believes in a freemarket approach to dealingwith the problems associated with indigenous communities. He stated that“Aborigines should be treated as other citizens are treated, and allow them tointegrate into the modern economy under the same suite of incentives anddisincentives and civil obligations as others. All that remains is for the policy‐makerstoshiftground.”TheproblemwithGary’spointofviewisthatnotallAustraliansare,foravarietyofreasons, treated“thesame”.As theFAHCSIAstatisticsshow‐ only42.9%ofIndigenousstudentsattendedsecondaryschool, comparedto65%fromanon‐Indigenousbackground.Assuch,statisticslikethis,demonstratethatIndigenousAustralians cannot be “treated as other citizens are treated.” IndigenouscommunitiesneedalotmoregovernmenthelpthanaverageAustraliansociety.In essence, I don’t think that Gary’s suggestion of introducing free marketprinciples such as self‐dependence and individuality will help to solve thewickedproblemsthatplagueindigenouscommunities.

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Week8

EnvironmentalProblems

Introduction

Environmental problems are often polarising. Take the debate over climatechangeandtheETSforexample.Withinthedebate,peopleareeither ‘sceptics’or ‘believers,’which is anentirelyunhelpful framework tobeoperatingwithinbecause it limits meaningful debate. The first theme written about in thisreflection centres on the notion that the framework of a debate will ofteninfluencetheoutcome.Thesecondthemeevidentinthisweek’sreflectionisthattherearedifferinglevelsofappropriateregulationdependingontheproblem.

Theframeworkofadebatecaninfluencetheoutcome

Foryears,theGreenslookedlikenutcasesintheAustralianpoliticalarena.Tenyears ago, most Australians asked how the Greens could possibly be seriouswhentheyarguedthatthetemperatureoftheglobewasrisingduetomanmadeactions. Thedebatewasdominatedby thosewhodisputed thenotion that theglobewaswarming, now (except in the Liberal Party) it is quite unpopular toespouse this view. Today, the broader policy debate centres on how climatechange can be prevented. The framework of the debate changed because theGreensalbeitoveralongperiodoftime,changedtheparametersofthedebatetoensurethatitwasmorefavourabletotheirperspective.TouseDover’sconcept,the Greensmanaged the ‘normalise,’ the notion thatmanmade climate changewasaworthyproblemthatneededanationalpublicpolicysolution.TheGreensexampledemonstratedthatwhendealingwithcomplexpublicpolicyproblems,itisimportanttoframethedebateinlinewithyourowngoalssoyouroutcomesareeventuallyreached.

Dependingontheproblem,therearedifferinglevelsofappropriateregulation

Steven Hatfield‐Dodds’ lecture outlined that there aremany different ways tomake laws to regulate sustainable behaviour. He articulated that regulation inrelation to the environmentwas usually difficult to enforce. To directly quoteSteven, ‘regulations should be matched to underlying impediments, takingaccount of different types of motivation.’ Policy tools designed to cater todifferentmotivationsinclude:

a) Persuasion.i.e.‘dotherightthing.’

b) EducationandInformation.

c) Self‐regulation,codesandstandards.

d) Grantsandsubsidies.

e) NewMarkets.E.g.tradeablepermits

f) Regulation

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Dovers agreed and spoke about the politics of ‘instrument choice.’ That is, apolicy initiative will involve specific instruments to achieve its goals becauseregulationisnot ‘one‐sizefitsall.’Thatis,policyinterventionsuseinstrumentsto drive behaviour change, or individuals, households, firms, communities,sectorsandgovernments.Thesepolicyinstrumentchoicesshoulddependontheindividualcontextofacomplexproblem.

The contexts of problems are usually determined by stakeholders, and in thetutorial we did an exercise which demonstrated how difficult it is to balancediffering stakeholder perspectives. This indicated that choosing what types ofregulationtoimplementisoftendifficulttodiscern.

PanelQuestion

Howdowepromoteeffectivelong‐termsustainabledevelopmentwhenenvironmental management strategies are constantly being reassessedaccordingtothelatestscientifically‐verifiedtechniques?I would ask this question because it would be interesting to discover howenvironmental policy makers factor uncertainty into their long‐term strategicvision.

Connections

(1) Connectionswithinthecourse

In week two of my learning journal, I emphasised the importance ofunderstandingthat there isoftenmorethanone ‘correct’answerwhensolvingcomplex problems, because people have many differing perspectives on howcomplex problems should be dealt with. The recognition of differingperspectiveswithinpolicymakingwasreflectedintheDodds/Doverlecture.

(2) Connectionwithanothercourse

Polarising debate often occurs over wicked problems. This can happen for avariety of reasons, but perhaps the main explanation lies with humankind’sinherent desire to simplify complex problems. Consequently, policy makersusuallyframedebateas‘for’or‘against’becauseitisusuallyeasiertoexplainacomplex issue in such terms.This typeofdebate framework isoftenunhelpfulbecause itdoesnotallowforabroadrangeofperspectivestobrought intothefold.ThisissuewasextensivelydiscussedinmyPoliticsintheMiddleEastcoursein relation to the Israeli/Palestine conflict.Many commentatorshaveobservedthat the framework of the debate is unconducive to finding a sustainableoutcometotheconflict.

(3)Connectionwithacontemporaryissue

Theunhelpfulnatureof apolarising framework is alsoevident in theabortiondebate.Within this debate, there are two camps: pro‐choice and pro‐life. Thisdivide isunhelpfulbecause itencouragespeopleto lookat theabortiondebatewithinablackandwhiteframework,ratherthanconsiderthecomplexitiesoftheentiretyofthedebate.Oneofmanycomplexitiesiswherepro‐lifersshouldstand

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when a pregnancy is a product of rape. The current framework of the debatedoesnotencourageadiscussionofthis‘grey’area.

Toolbox

1. Seek to normalise an issue so the debate framework changes in yourfavour

2. Recognise that therearediffering levelsof appropriate regulationwhentryingtocontrolundesirablebehaviour.

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Ticket

At theCopenhagen conference, the group consisting of government actors andpolicymakershadonesinglepriority–toreducetheimpactofclimatechange.Consequently, this created a number of differing and sometime conflictingpriorities. At the conference, government actors and policy makers wereessentiallydivided into two sub‐groups: the global north and the global south.The global north consisted of industrialised nations such as the U.S., U.K. andAustralia,while the global south included developing countries like China andIndia.Bydrawingonthe internationalrelationsconceptof ‘realism,’ it isevidentthatthe approach used by these two sub‐groups, largely focused on their commonself‐interest. This self‐interest was based on their desire to demand that theothergroupreducedemissionsahigherrate.Theglobalnorthdemandeddeepcuts in emissions by the global south – which consists of the fastest growingeconomies in theworld.While the global south argued that the industrialisedworldmustmakedeeperemissionscutsbecausetheindustrialisedworldcausedclimatechange.Bothsub‐groupsused thesameapproach, coalitionbuildingboundbynationalself‐interest, in an attempt to reach the same goal – a reduction in globalemission.Butneithergroupwaswilling tocompromise.This in turn,createdastalemateininternationalnegotiationsonclimatechange.

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Week9

MathsofComplexProblems

Introduction

This week demonstrated that complexity in mathematics, like most otherdisciplines we have studied, is based on the unpredictability of an outcome.Mathematicians often call this chaos. The themes for thisweek centredon thefact that mitigating chaos is difficult because even if systems or formulas aresimple, output can be chaotic; simple systems can be sensitive to ‘initialconditions,’thusprovidingcomplexoutcomes.

Thisweek’spanelalsodispelled themyth, thatmathshas theuniqueability toalways simplify complex problems through formulaic or graphicalrepresentations.Thisweek I learnt that fractalmathematicsdemonstrates thatevenifsomecomplexsystemsaremagnified,theywillneversimplify.

Mitigatingchaosisdifficultbecausesimplesystemsorformulas,canproducea

chaoticoutput

Simple systems often produce chaotic outcomes for a variety of reasons.However, the panel in particular focused on one reason. Michael Barnsleyexplainedthatfeedbackfunctionsoftencreatechaoticoutcomes,particularlyinrelationtothe ‘blackbox’wherethereareunknownquantitiesinthefeedbackloopwhichinturnaffecttheoutcome.

During the tutorial the facilitator, Tom Stayner, provided a very interestingexampleofthisphenomenonwithacupofteaandmilk.Hepouredmilk intheteaandtheyreactedwitheachother.Theteaactedasa ‘blackbox’becausewecouldnotpredictpreciselywhichsectionsoftheteaandmilkwouldreactwitheachotherfirst.Thustheunpredictablenatureoftheexperimentdemonstratedthechaoticnatureofit.

Simplesystemscanbesensitiveto‘initialconditions,’thusprovidingcomplex

outcomes

Theconceptbehindthisthemeisinextricablylinkedtothechaostheory.StephanKellert in his book In the Wake of Chaos: Unpredictable Order in DynamicalSystems,statedthat‘Smalldifferencesininitialconditions(suchasthoseduetoroundingerrorsinnumericalcomputation)yieldwidelydivergingoutcomesforchaotic systems, rendering long‐term prediction impossible in general. This isalsoknownasthe‘butterflyeffect,’whereinitialconditionsmaybeseeminglysoineffectual – likeabutterfly flapping itswings– that theyarediscounted fromthe equation. As these factors compound, the effect of the ‘initial conditions’becomeapparent.Theseoutcomesareunpredictableandas thenamesuggests‘chaotic.’

PanelQuestion

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Ifgiventheopportunity,Iwouldask‘Intermsofcomplexproblemsolvingwithmaths,whichdisciplinebestcomplimentsthisendeavour?’

I would ask this question because it has become apparent, through out thecoursethatsomedisciplinesworkbettertogetherthanothers.

Connections

(1) Connectionswithinthecourse

Theuncertaintyofoutcomescanbemirroredwiththethemesevidentinthelawweek.

(2) Connectionwithanothercourseandcontemporaryissue

FormyArtsdegree,IcompletedtheGovernmentandPoliticsintheUSAcourse.Thefirsttheme,‘mitigatingchaosisdifficultbecausesystemsorformulascanbesimple,butoutput canbe chaotic’ essentiallydescribes the structureof theUSpolitical system. That is, the system has a fairly simple structure with clearlydemarcated institutions: theOfficeof thePresident,CongressandtheSupremeCourt. Even though the structure of this system is simple, once an issue likehealthcare reform is brought into the mix, these institutions soon becomeunpredictable ‘blackboxes.’Theybecome ‘blackboxes’because it is impossibletomeasureallofthedifferinginfluenceswhichimpactupontheoutcome.

Toolbox

1. Modelingcomplexsystemscan,butnotinthecaseoffractals,provideaninsight into how systems can be broken down into manageablecomponents,andhelpustounderstandhowtheyfunction.

2. Mathematic systems can be used to predict the outcome of complexproblems.

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Ticket

Ihavechosenthesection,“Oscillationsbetweenstabilityandchaos.”Inthearticle ‘UsingChaosTheorytoRevitalizeFisheries,’RobertM.MayoftheUniversityofOxfordstatedthat‘predictability’wasthe“theflipsideofchaos.”Alogicalconclusionfromthisdefinitionisthat‘unpredictability’ischaos.Drawingfrommy political science discipline, a complex system that oscillates betweenstability (predictability) and chaos (unpredictability) is the Israel/Palestineconflict.At thisverymoment, therearepredictableelements to the relationship,whichcreatesa senseof stability.Atpresent, it seems fairlypredictable thatwhile innegotiations, the twocampswillnotdeclarewaroneachother tomorrow.Butthe outcome of these negotiations is unpredictable. The negotiations coulddisintegrate.If negotiations disintegrated, the actions of the two sides would beunpredictable.Forallweknow, the twosides couldbeatwarwitheachothernext week. It is clear that the oscillating nature of this relationship betweenpredictability(stability)andunpredictability(chaos)addstoitscomplexity.

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Week10

HealthandDevelpment

Introduction

The area of health and development is based heavily on ethics. Before Iembarkedonthistopic,Ihadaroughunderstandingofwhatethicswere,butdidsome further research togainamore insightful comprehension.Oxfordonline,hasincludedthreedefinitionsof‘ethics’:

“Schools of ethics inWestern philosophy can be divided, very roughly,intothreesorts.Thefirst,drawingontheworkofAristotle,holdsthatthevirtues(such as justice, charity, and generosity) are dispositions to act in ways thatbenefitboththepersonpossessingthemandthatperson'ssociety.Thesecond,defended particularly by Kant, makes the concept of duty central tomorality:humansarebound,fromaknowledgeoftheirdutyasrationalbeings,toobeythecategorical imperative to respect other rational beings. Thirdly, utilitarianismassertsthattheguidingprincipleofconductshouldbethegreatesthappinessorbenefitofthegreatestnumber.”3

It seems that the concept of ‘justice’ is a central element that ties thesedefinitions of ethics together. It is clear that there are many differinginterpretationsonwhatis‘just’inthemedicalandscientificprofession.Assuch,anumberof ethical dilemmasarisewhich in turn create anumberof complexproblems.Theseproblemsincludetheglobaldistributionoffundingfordiseasecures and prevention as well as gene and medicinal patents. Thus healthcarerelatedethicaldilemmasandtheroleof‘moralsuasion’inthehealthcaredebatearethemainthemesofthisreflection.

EthicalDilemmasinhealth

The panel clearly demonstrated that there is an ethical dilemma over thedistributionoffundingforcuringdiseases.ThepanelquestionedwhetheritwasethicalthattherehasbeenhigherinvestmentintryingtocuretheHendravirusthathaskilledapproximately16AustraliansasopposedtoLasafeverwhichhaskilled thousands overseas? It is clear that the perspective one brings to thisethical dilemma will determine how they interpret it. For instance, from aparliamentarian’s perspective, they may believe that the government’s mainethicalpriorityshouldbeto findacure forHendravirusbecausetherewasanoutbreak intheirelectorate.FromtheperspectiveofaUNofficialontheAfricaDesk,theywouldseethemainethicalpriorityasfindingacureforLasaFever.

The fact thatethicalperspectivesdetermineoutcomeswasaptlydemonstratedin the tutorial. In the tutorial we were asked to interpret a problem from anassigned ethical perspective. The questionwas: ‘If you had the opportunity totake$1millionknowing someone in theworldwoulddie,wouldyou take it?’

3http://oxforddictionaries.com/view/entry/m_en_gb0275070#m_en_gb0275070

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Those on the utilitarian side argued that they would take themoney becausethey could use the money to benefit a ‘greater good.’ While those from theKantian side argued that assuming that everyone was a rational being, theyshouldnottakethemoneybecausetheyareboundbythebeliefthattheymustrespectotherrationalbeings.

MoralSuasion

Another theme evident in the topic of health is the negative impact of moralsuasioninrelationtohealthcareethics.Itisoftenperceivedbybroadersociety,throughtheinfluenceofdrugcompanies,thatpatentinggenesandmedicationispositive because it encourages innovation. This moral framework establishespatenting as a positive implement in the world of science. The panellistscomprehensively challenged this concept.They argued thatpatentingdoesnotfacilitate an environment of innovation. Buddhima Lokuge provided statisticsfrom the US Congressional Budget Office which stated that 75% of theregistrationofnewdrugshad‘notherapeuticbenefits.’Thisfiguresuggeststhattheideaofpatentscreatinginnovationisa‘cargocult:’the‘beliefthatautopianfuture will be delivered by spiritual agents if certain rituals are performed.’Essentially Buddhima argued that the idea of patenting facilitating large‐scaleinnovationisafallacy.

PanelQuestion

Is it feasible to reform the patenting system to ensure that it becomes moreeffectiveatfacilitatinginnovation?

I would have asked this question because it is clear that the system is anineffectivesystemandhighlyunjustasAndrewFowlerpointedout inhisFourCornersprogramonthepatentingofthebreastcancergene.

Connections

(1) Connectionswithinthecourse

Therecanbeaconnectionmadebetweenthe ideaofa ‘narrativearc’(week4)andmoralsuasionbecausetheybothseektoensurethatadominantperspective,usuallyfavourabletothestatusquoorapowerfulvoiceinsociety,isheardaboveallelse.

(2) Connectionwithanothercourseandcontemporaryissue

ThistopichasaconnectionwithSecurityandStrategicstudies.Theconnectionisthat Australia faces an ethical dilemma over where it should allocate its aidfunding.Shouldmoneybegiventothemostneedycountries,thoseinAfrica,orcountriesthatarestrategicallyimportanttoAustralia,intheAsia‐Pacific?

Toolbox

(1) When analysing outcomes, understand that decisions are usually madefrom differing ethical perspectives. This is a useful tool because itcontextualisestheoutcomeofdecision‐makingprocesses.

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(2) Identify weaknesses in the system, and target solutions for thoseweaknesses.

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Ticket

A) To answer this question in relation to the four corners story, I think thatpatentsshouldonlybelegitimatewhensomethinghasbeencreatedratherthandiscovered.Thismeansthatpatentsshouldonlyapplytonewideasorphysicalobject etc, rather than naturally occurring things like gene sequences. AseconomistJoesephStiglezstated:‘Theyareapartofallofourbodiesandcontainthemostfundamentalinformationabouthumanity—informationthatshouldbeavailable to everyone. The researchers and private companies that applied forthese gene patents did not invent the genes; they only identified what wasalreadythere.’B)Tool1:Analyseaproblemthroughobservinghowitfitsintoacertainsystemorframework.Tool 2: Remember that ‘narrative arcs’ permeate each discipline, so don’t betricked into thinking that the dominant way of approaching a problem is themosteffective.Tool3:Alwaysrememberthe‘BlackSwan’phenomenon!Expecttheunexpected.C)Theethicsofwhistleblowing is a complex issue that inhabitsmydiscipline(political science). At what point is the revelation of information helpful orharmful? How can the revelation of information for ‘the greater good’ bemeasured? Wikileaks is an example of an ethical hot spot because it is anorganizationthatcentersitsactivityaround‘blowingthewhistle.’

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Week11

TheLawandComplexity

Introduction

The relationship between values and the legal system, as well as the role ofuncertaintyinthelawarethemainthemesforthisweek. SimonRicefocusedon the process of law making in the parliament and the importance ofunderstandingthevaluesandintentbehindthelawwhenwantingtoamendit.BenandIfacilitatedthisweek’stutorial,sowedecidedtofocusonlawcreationinthecourtsthroughvalue‐ladenjudicialinterpretation.

TheRelationshipBetweenValuesandtheLaw

(i) Parliament

SimonRicedemonstratedtheimportanceofunderstandingthevaluesandintentbehind the law through a tutorial exercise. For the exercise, he asked us toamendaclassroomrule ‘no‐one ispermittedtouseamobilephonewhentheyare in class’ to allow a student to answerhismobile phone to contact his sickmother.

Whenwe startedmakingexceptions to the rule,wehad to consider the intentbehind the rule. As the exceptions to the rule list became longer and moreobscureandlargelyirrelevanttotheinitialvaluesandintentbehindtherule,weneeded to consider when it would be appropriate to create a completelydifferent rule to incorporate changed needs and values. The intimate andsubsequently complex relationshipbetween values and lawmakingwas clearlydemonstratedthroughthisexercise.

(ii) Thecourts

Judicial activism, both in the liberal and conservative sense, as well as legalformalismdemonstratethefundamentalconnectionbetweenvaluesandthelaw.Ben and I devised an exercise to demonstrate the impact of value‐influencedjudicialdecisionmakingonajudicialoutcome.Itwasimportanttodemonstratethis relationship because interpreting judicial decisions can be a complexprocessmadeeasierbyunderstandingthejudicialphilosophyofadecision.

Uncertaintyinthelaw

Uncertaintyinthelawisasourceofcomplexitybecauseitisoftenimpossibletopredict how Justices will interpret a common law decision later on down thetrack.However,inthetutorialwesoughttoemphasisethatthisuncertaintyandsubsequentcomplexitywasnotsolelynegative.This isbecausetheuncertaintysurrounding how a judicial decisionwill be interpreted in the future, is a toolthatcanbeusedbyJusticestoreflectchangingvaluesandnormsinsociety.Assuch, the complexity and consequent uncertainty of the law can actually be ausefultoolforsolvingcomplexproblems.

PanelQuestion

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If SimonRice tookquestions, Iwouldhaveaskedwhetherhe favoured judicialactivism or legal formalism. Iwould have asked him this question because hewould have provided a unique perspective on what the role of the Justice’spersonalvaluesshouldplaywheninterpretingthelaw.

Connections

(1)Connectionswithinthecourse

The themeof the relationshipbetweenvalues and the lawwas also evident inweek 7 (Indigenous disadvantage). The values that underpinned theinterventionallegislation,reflectedsome,butnotallofsociety.Thecomplexityofthematterishowtobalancedifferingvaluesinsociety.

(2)Connectionwithanothercourse

Justastheoutcomeofthelawisoftenuncertain,itwasmadeclearfromacourseIdid inInternationalRelationsthatAustralia’spoliticalrelationshipwithChinacanbejustasuncertainandunpredictableattimes.

(3)Connectionwithcontemporaryissue

In Queensland, there was recently a debate over whether abortion was legal.Thisdebatecenteredonacouplewhowereprosecutedforprocuringmedicinetohaveanabortion.Therewasaheateddebate inQueenslandonwhether thelawreflected thevaluesofmodernQueenslandsociety; the lawwasultimatelyinterpreted insuchaway that theprosecutedcouplewerenot foundguiltybythe judge.At theendof theday, theuncertainty surrounding the clarityof thelaw,allowedtheJusticetointerpretacomplexissueinthelawinsuchawayastoreflecttheirinterpretationofmodernvaluesinQueensland.

PublicLecture

DuringtheholidaysIattendedadebateon:‘ShouldthePopebeheldtoaccount?’attheFestivalofDangerousIdeas.GeoffreyRobertsonadvocatedforthePopetobetriedunderinternationallaw,whileAlanDersherwitzarguedfortheCatholicChurch reprimand its priests through the use of ‘canon law,’ i.e. Vatican law.Dersherwitz argued that trying the Pope under international law underminedthe legislation because the paedophilic behaviour of priests demeaned ‘crimesagainsthumanity’legislation.OneofthemanycomplexitiesininternationallawisthatevenifadecisiononthePopeishandeddown,thefactthatheisaheadofstate provides him with legal immunity. Thus rendering the legislationineffective.

Toolbox

(1) Uncertaintyinthelawcanbeusedasatooltoimplementdecisionsthatreflectchangingsocietalvalues

(2) Ifonedoesnotlikeagreewithaprecedentthehasframedtheoutcomeofacourtcase,itisoftenpossibletochangevalueframeworkofaproblemandinterprettheproblemfromthatperspective.

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(3) When approaching complex problems, it can be helpful to synthesisedifferingperspectivestocreateasolution.

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WorkshopTicket

Mootpoint:Canreductionistthinkinghelpsolvecomplexproblems?ClassmateswillbeaskedtocallontheJonesreading.Interpretersofthelawusereductionistmethodstosolvecomplexproblemssuchas court cases. As outlined in Judith Jones’ article, Lawyers and Justicesmovethroughthreestagestosolvecomplexproblems.Thefirstisdeterminationofthelegalrules–thelaw.Secondly,theydeterminethefacts.Thirdly,theyapplythelawtothosefacts.Moot point: Does the precautionary principle help or hinder complex problemsolving?Classmateswill be asked to call on theRobertoAndorno reading and theCassSunstienReading.Andornoadvocatesthattheburdenofprooflieswiththosewhowillpotentiallycause harm. Sunstien however argues that the precautionary principle isparalysingbecausenothingwillbeachievedifitisevoked.Original suggestions on what you are going to get your class mates toread/view/listentobeforethetutorialisheldCorporations vs. nature, the precautionary principle would be beneficial forstudentstoviewbeforetheyattendthetutorialhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKnbo9Kg4MEEvidenceoforiginalthinkingonhowtorunthetutorialHalftheclasswillbeaskedtoassumetheroleofAustralianHighCourtjusticeswhiletheotherhalfwillbeaskedtoassumetheroleofSupremeCourt justicesfromtheUS.TheAustralianHighCourtJusticeswillbeexpectedtomakearulingon a constitutional issue. In keeping with common legal practice on the HighCourt,each justice inthegroupmustprovidedifferent judgementsyetcometothesamedecision.Theotherhalfofjustices,inkeepingwiththetraditionoftheSupremeCourt,mustmakeadecisionandprovideasingle judgement fortheirdecision.Iwillthenasktheclasswhichoutcomewasbetterforsolvingcomplexproblems.Does having many judgements on the one ruling ‘compound uncertainty’ asJudithJones?Doeshavingonejudgementforonedecisionriskreducingcomplexproblems to ‘black’ and ‘white’ issues by ignoring that there can be manydifferentinterpretationsoflaw?Locatingarelevantnewrecentjournalreferenceandthequalityofthe100wordsummaryexplainingtherelevanceofthisarticletothetutorialtopic

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Harremoës,Poul,DavidGee,MalcolmMacGarvin,AndyStirling,JaneKeys,BrianWynne, Sofia Guedes Vaz (October 2002). "The Precautionary Principle in the20thCentury: Late Lessons fromEarlyWarnings—Earthscan, 2002.Review".Nature419:433.Thisarticleconcernstheriseoftheunintendedconsequencesofscienceandtheneedforpolicytocurbitsnegativeeffects.Theinabilityofscientistsandpolicymakerstoconfidentlypredict theconsequencesofsciencewillmakethe ‘BlackSwan’ phenomenon even more prevalent in modern society. This article isrelevanttothetutorialtopicbecauseitiswritteninlightoftheimportanceoftheprecautionaryprinciple,enshrinedintheTreatyoftheEuropeanUnion.

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Week12­13

CourseReflection

ThiswillbesubmittedonSaturdayOctober30asdiscussedwithRichardBaker.