20.4.2012

LEARNING PACKAGE ON FORESIGHT

Compiled and edited by Mikko Dufva, Johanna Kohl, Totti Könnölä (Impetu Solutions) and Raija

Koivisto.

Includes material from Ville Valovirta, Torsti Loikkanen, Toni Ahlqvist, EFP foresight guide, Practical

guide to foresight in the UK, UNIDO Technology foresight manual, Practical

foresight, The handbook of technology foresight and other sources

mentioned in the text.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................ 3

Overview about foresight ................................................................................................................................................... 4

What is foresight ............................................................................................................................................................. 4

Characteristics of foresight ............................................................................................................................................. 4

Why foresight ................................................................................................................................................................. 5

How to run a foresight excercise? .................................................................................................................................. 6

Foresight in Latin America .................................................................................................................................................. 8

History of the use of foresight methods ......................................................................................................................... 8

Foresight in Chile ............................................................................................................................................................ 9

Foresight in VTT ................................................................................................................................................................ 10

Methods and examples .................................................................................................................................................... 12

Trends, megatrends, wild cards and weak signals ........................................................................................................ 13

SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................ 14

Delphi ............................................................................................................................................................................ 14

Expert panels ................................................................................................................................................................ 15

Roadmapping ................................................................................................................................................................ 16

Scenarios ....................................................................................................................................................................... 17

Backcasting ................................................................................................................................................................... 18

Futures wheel ............................................................................................................................................................... 19

Other methods.............................................................................................................................................................. 20

Related concepts .............................................................................................................................................................. 24

System transitions ........................................................................................................................................................ 24

Knowledge management and context .......................................................................................................................... 26

Glossary ............................................................................................................................................................................ 27

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INTRODUCTION

This learning package is part of the foresight training

done in the ICI-Antofagasta project. The overall

objective of the project is to enhance innovation-

driven and sustainable development in the

Antofagasta region including economic, socio-cultural

and environmental dimensions such as employment,

energy, and water issues. The project aims to

generate a higher level of capacity in the region to

manage various innovation activities in a coordinated

manner. The aim of the foresight work package is to

support the development of innovation culture, long

term target setting as well as service and technology

development both in CICITEM, partner network and thus regionally.

The learning package is a compilation of texts from online and print materials on foresight. It aims to give an overview

about foresight, its methods and practice. The learning package is meant to prepare for the foresight training

workshop, and therefore it is important that you read it beforehand. The objective of the training is to familiarise

with foresight, offer networking opportunities and prepare foresight plans for the region of Antofagasta.

Training consist of the following phases.

1. This learning package and a pre-workshop survey

2. Workshop between May 7 and 10.

3. Online elaboration of foresight plans between May and September.

4. Presentation of your final foresight plans in September/October.

The learning package is also available as a web page at http://antofagastaforesight.wordpress.com/ where there is

also a possibility to comment and ask further questions about foresight and methods. On the web page there is also a

pre-workshop questionnaire that we hope you will answer after reading this package. Your answers will help us

design the training to suit your needs.

Foresight is multidimensional and diverse, and this learning package only scratches the surface. The methods and

practice of foresight will be explained more broadly and deeply in the training workshop. We hope this learning

package will help you in orienting towards thinking about possible futures and the demands and possibilities related

to them.

Go ahead and shape you own future!

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OVERVIEW ABOUT FORESIGHT

WHAT IS FORESIGHT

(sources: EFP foresight guide, Practical guide to foresight in the UK)

Foresight is a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process

aimed at enabling present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions. It can be envisaged as a triangle combining

“Thinking the Future”, “Debating the Future” and “Shaping the Future”.

Foresight is neither prophecy nor

prediction. It does not aim to predict

the future – to unveil it as if it were

predetermined – but to help us build

it. It invites us to consider the future

as something that we can create or

shape, rather than as something

already decided.

Terms that are similar to foresight

include forward looking activity,

futures research and future-oriented

technology analysis. In this learning

package we will use the term

foresight.

Foresight is different from most planning activities, even those that are strategic and long-term focused. Part of the

difference lays in the principal characteristic of Foresight, which is based on participative methods. Foresight

encourages the active involvement of stakeholders with the aim of sharing knowledge (and enhancing awareness of

who can supply knowledge!), to build a vision of possible futures for the region.

Hopefully it will be possible to establish some consensus around this vision. But even where such consensus is lacking,

the Foresight process should contribute valuable learning about possible futures and the positions of key

stakeholders.

CHARACTERISTICS OF FORESIGHT

(sources: EFP foresight guide, UNIDO Technology foresight manual)

FUTURE-ORIENTATION Foresight is concerned with the longer term, which is generally considered to be beyond normal planning horizons.

Foresight time horizons therefore typically range between five and thirty years. The time horizon of a Foresight

exercise should be far enough to allow changes to be possible but not so far away as to seem irrelevant.

ACTION-ORIENTATION

Foresight is not only about analysing or contemplating future developments but supporting actors to actively shape

the future. Purely analytical studies of possible futures (i.e. “futures studies”) without connection to possible actions

are not considered as Foresight. Therefore, Foresight activities should only be undertaken when it is actually possible

to shape the future. Foresight is only worthwhile when it can be tied to action.

Figure 1. Foresight triangle

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OPENNESS TO ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

Foresight assumes that the future is not pre-determined. The future can therefore evolve in different directions,

which can be shaped to some extent by the actions of various players and the decisions taken today. In other words,

there is a certain degree of freedom to choose among the alternative, feasible futures, and hence increase the chance

of arriving at the preferred (selected) future state.

PARTICIPATION Foresight is not done by a small group of experts or academics but involves a number of different groups of actors

concerned with the issues at stake. The results of the Foresight exercise are disseminated among a large audience

from which feedback is actively sought. Foresight uses interactive and participative methods of debate, analysis and

study of long-term social, economic and technological developments and needs. These interactive approaches involve

forging new social networks.

INTERDISCIPLINARITY Foresight is based on the principle that the problems we face cannot be correctly understood if reduced to one

dimension and sliced up like a salami to allow it to fit into the perspective of the different academic disciplines.

Instead, Foresight provides an approach that captures realities in their totality with all the variables influencing them,

regardless of the type (quantitative and qualitative).

WHY FORESIGHT

(Sources: EFP foresight guide, Practical guide to foresight in the UK )

Although many foresighted technologies have realised, foresight is not mechanistic tool giving answers for future

challenges. Participation and learning are part of the foresight procedure. Future is co-created and constructed

together. Foresight processes are not only influenced by future uncertainties or possibilities but also generate

uncertainties or possibilities. Foresight is a tool to manage with uncertainties and possibilities of the future in a

systematic and diverse manner.

Foresight:

Supports strategic choices of alternative technological development paths

Promotes networking of experts

Contributes to insights and shared visions of future developments and consequent consensus of and

commitment to future investments

Supports prioritization and R&D resource allocation

Foresight is often undertaken when a country, region or organisation faces a specific challenge or wants to explore

new possibilities. It implements a process of systematic reasoning to develop “visions”, understood as possible future

states of affairs that can be reached (or avoided) through action in the present. Each Foresight excercise will be based

on its own specific premises and will have a number of tangible and intangible outputs and outcomes.

Three main rationales for Foresight activities are to:

• Inform policymaking and other strategic and planning procedures, so that decisions

taken by key actors in the commissioning body are more aware of longer-term

developments and how these are liable to interact with current policy decisions.

Often a Foresight exercise will be stimulated by the need to take a particular decision, admittedly. But the

knowledge developed, and the Foresight capabilities that have hopefully been embedded in the organisation,

should have a wider significance.

“In what direction

should we go?”

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• Help build networks among the people centrally involved with shaping the future of

a particular topic. They will be brought together to work on their visions and

assessments of the future. The purpose of this is to help them become better able

collectively to understand the challenges and opportunities that they are liable to confront, and the

strategies and objectives that others might pursue.

• Develop capabilities widely throughout a region, to facilitate the development of a

“Foresight culture”. The aim of this is for people of various kinds to be able to define

and embark upon their own Foresight activities, to forge their own Foresight

networks. This is probably the one rationale that has been slowest to be recognised

as a practical goal - but it is often very relevant at regional level.

In practice a mixture of these three reasons is often in play. In practice, too, there may be other goals that stimulate

regional interest in Foresight. It may be kicked off by a national exercise, or an effort to make the region’s voice heard

within the context of such an exercise.

To achieve its objectives Foresight facilitates a process of systematic collective reflection on the long-term future. This

process of reflection can have several outcomes and benefits. The results of Foresight are generally fed into public

decision making, but they also help participants themselves to develop or adjust their strategies. Thus Foresight

functions as an alternative policy instrument suitable for addressing the challenges and opportunities of governance

within complex systems.

HOW TO RUN A FORESIGHT EXCERCISE?

(source: EFP foresight guide)

Foresight exercises are complex and highly interactive processes. There is no “one-single” way to organize an exercise.

Although each individual exercise will have its own specific characteristics, they should all have in common the

following: a good exercise starts with a deep understanding of the context in which it is embedded and a clear set of

objectives.

Foresight exercise can be split into five general interconnected phases:

1. Feasibility assessment: Is foresight appropriate in the context? Can it be linked to action?

2. Defining the aim and scope of the exercise: What is the objective of the exercise? What are the boundaries,

what is taken into account, what is the general issue? What is the time scale and the spatial focus?

3. Choosing the methods: What are the suitable methods given the context, scope and aims?

4. Running the exercise: Managing time, people, participants, communications and most importantly the

learning process itself.

5. Follow up: Did the exercise achieve its goals? Are the outcomes plausible, useful, and insightful? Has the

process created new learning and networks? What is the relevance for policy making?

“With whom could

we cooperate?”

“What does the

future mean for me

and us?”

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Figure 2. Example of a foresight process used in Nordic Hydrogen Energy Foresight 2030

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FORESIGHT IN LATIN AMERICA

HISTORY OF THE USE OF FORESIGHT METHODS

(Sources: Albornoz 2008: Applying FTA Methods in Latin American Countries, Popper & Medina 2010: Foresight in Latin America)

In the 1970s, Latin American countries were forerunners in the use of future-oriented methodologies, mainly

simulation models and scenarios for improving policies in the area of science and technology. The simulation models,

such as the Latin American World Model, focused in the social and political problems and tried to present an image of

the ideal society. This was a response to the Club of Rome’s Limits to growth model, which focused on the physical

constraints.

As the predictions of the models failed, the interest in them and in foresight in general waned. According to Albornoz

(p.134):

The first prospective studies were intended to understand and predict the structure of the world, as well as to

support an alternative vision of the international distribution of power and wealth. For this to materialize, it

would have required the capacity to introduce major changes in the economic and political international order.

This utopian condition affected the predictive power of the models by depriving them of an objective point of

view. As the development model followed by Latin American countries during the 1970s began to fail and the

world economy entered a period of transformation, the wishful thinking that had inspired these models became

increasingly obvious.

Figure 3. Foresight methods in Latin America

From 2000 onwards there has been a newly found interest in the futures studies. Main methods used are Delphi,

scenarios and mathematical modelling. However, applying foresight practices has not always been easy due to social,

economic and political instability, the influence of global markets and the resulting lack of ability to make decision and

the problems in applying methods developed in another context. Albornoz identifies three main challenges to

applying Future-oriented Technology Analysis in Latin America:

1. Information systems and access to databases: ensuring the continuity, standardization, access to bibliometry

and patent databases.

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2. Links among heterogeneous actors: networking between academic groups, stakeholders, businesses and

government.

3. Human and institutional resources: training experts in the use of future-oriented technology analysis

methodology

FORESIGHT IN CHILE

In Chile, the organisational form of foresight has been mainly either one off-projects or national foresight program

(figure 4). The Chilean Technology Programme was launched in 2001 and has produced studies on the future of ICT

applied to education, biotechnology, Chilean software industry, wine production, aquaculture and food industry. In

2006 it launched its first regional study: “Economic activities contributing to the development of the Maule Region in

the next 10 years”. The studies follow a roughly similar design: desk research for the diagnosis phase; brainstorming

sessions to identify topics and key issues; workshops with targeted experts to discuss the Delphi design; and an online

Delphi to gather views and opinions about the future.

Scope

More

inclusive Networks (national & international)

Programmes (national & international) eg. Chile

national foresight programme

Less

inclusive

Exercises (one-off projects) eg. Chilean

software industry 2010 Centres/Groups (specialised institutes)

Less formal More formal

Organisational structure

Figure 4. Organisational forms of foresight projects

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FORESIGHT IN VTT

VTT has done foresight exercises since late 1990s, and the importance of foresight has been increasingly recognised in

2000s. Foresight in VTT has expanded from technology roadmaps to broader socio-economic and ecological contexts.

Nowadays VTTs foresight covers both the “demand pull”: creating vision and identifying future drivers, markets and

products; as well as the “science push”: responding to issues raised by science and technology. The focus of a recent

strategy has been on searching for R&D driven solutions to grand challenges, e.g. linking challenges of energy and

water issues, scarcity of raw materials, healthy ageing and climate change. Foresight is seen as one part of strategic

decision making in VTT (figure 5).

Figure 5. Strategic policy intelligence for managing innovation systems

VTT has an internal team called “foresight and socio-technical change” focused on doing research on and developing

foresight and systemic societal change. The team also provides expertise on foresight both for internal purposes as

well as external purposes, e.g. providing foresight services for clients. In 2012 a project aiming to network experts

involved in foresight in VTT was launched. This foresight network captures the unique advantage of VTT: having both

the technological competencies as well as foresight know-how under one roof.

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Figure 6. Foresight in VTT

Below is a short list of foresight projects that VTT has done on the national, Nordic and EU-level.

National-level cooperation (examples)

Finnsight 2015, incl. VTT panel members. Tekes and the Academy of Finland, 2005-2006

SITRA's foresight network, incl. VTT reseachers 2005-2006

TrendWiki working group of the Ministry of Economy and Employment, 2010=>

Open Wave, Tekes/Finnish Boat Industry (2010-2012),

Strategy support for EIT ICT Labs Finnish node, Tekes 2011

Nordic-level cooperation (examples)

Nordic Hydrogen Energy Foresight, VTT as a core partner. NICe & NER, 2003-2005

Nordic ICT Foresight, VTT as coordinator. NICe, 2005-2007

Nordic Biomedical Sensor Foresight, VTT as partner. NICe, 2005-2006

GoReNEST (2008-2009), TOP-NEST (2011 =>), SHHP Innovation Networks (2008-2009),

EU-level cooperation (examples)

Nanotechnology roadmapping. EU FP6, 2004-2005

Emerging S&T priorities in public research policies in Europe, US and Japan. EU Platform Foresight , 2004-

2005.

ETEPS - BIO4EU. IPTS/European Parliament, 2006

ForSociety ERA-Net, VTT involved in Future Dialogues, 2006-2007

TESTNET – WT & CP future outlooks for European ETV system, 2006-2008

ATEsT. EU FP7, assesment of energy system modelling and transition management tools, 2009-2012

Research and Innovation Strategies and Investment in Grand Challenges, ERAB, 2011

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METHODS AND EXAMPLES

(Source: EFP foresight guide)

As a Foresight exercise may make use of different (sets of) methods at different stages, finding the appropriate

sequence of methods is one of the most delicate design steps. Indeed, it is an evolutionary process that needs

continuous adaptation and in depth discussion with the sponsors, the team and other stakeholders.

In this respect it might be useful to distinguish the different functions that need to be performed in different phases

of your exercise:

Diagnosis: Understanding where we are

Prognosis: Foresighting what could happen

Prescription: Deciding what should be done

These functions might relate to specific phases of the process or they might come up at more than one point in time

during the exercise.

In this chapter 7 methods are presented briefly. At the end of the chapter there is a table describing other common

methods used in foresight. Figure 7 presents some methods grouped based on the degree of reliance on expertise vs.

interactivity and the reliance on creativity vs evidence.

Figure 7. The graphic shows a possible grouping of Foresight methods. The shape inside the circle shows how often

each method has been used within a set of exercises collected and analysed by the EFMN (European Foresight

monitoring Network)

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TRENDS, MEGATRENDS, WILD CARDS AND WEAK SIGNALS

(sources: Practical foresight, The handbook of technology foresight)

The future can be anticipated by looking at the direction of current developments (trends and megatrends) or trying

to sense the possible but improbable events (weak signals and wild cards). As these are central concepts in many of

the methods, these are explained briefly below.

Figure 8. The impact and probability of wild cards, weak signals, trends and megatrends.

Trend is a general tendency or direction evident from past events increasing or decreasing in strength of frequency of

observation. It usually suggests a pattern.

Megatrends are long-term processes of transformation with a broad scope and a dramatic impact. They are

considered to be powerful factors which shape future markets. Megatrends differ from other trends in three ways:

Time horizon: Megatrends can be observed over decades

Reach: Megatrends impact comprehensively on all regions, and result in multidimensional transformations of

all societal subsystems, whether in politics, society, or economy

Intensity of impact: Megatrends impact powerfully and extensively on all actors, whether it is governments,

individuals and their consumption patterns, or corporations and their strategies.

Weak signals are early signs of currently small change. They can presage a strategic discontinuity. The search for weak

signals is one where you do not know what you are looking for. It involves the identification of "not necessarily

important things" which do not seem to have a strong impact in the present but which could be the trigger for major

events in the future. Finding weak signals is one of the most challenging tasks in futures research and their analysis

often leads to the identification of wild cards.

Wild Cards are high-impact events that seem too incredible, or are considered too unlikely, to happen; yet many do.

They are warnings (external or internal), events and developments that are still too incomplete to permit an accurate

estimation of their impact and/or to determine their complete response. Wild cards make your colleagues laugh,

people say it will never happen, makes people wonder, few people have heard about it before, and are taboos. They

are a rich source for further research in later opportunity and risk assessment.

A collection of wild cards and weak signals as well as trends can be found on the iKnowFutures website.

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SWOT

(source: EFP foresight guide)

SWOT analysis is a technique, which is widely used to identify and categorise significant internal (Strengths and

Weaknesses) and external (Opportunities and Threats) factors faced either in a particular arena, such as an

organisation, territory, region, nation, or city. It is a tool that synthesises expert knowledge and results of more

detailed studies. In addition to just listing the factors also their importance for the future can be analysed.

HOW TO DO IT? To fill a SWOT matrix, the following questions should be answered (Figure 9):

Figure 9. SWOT-matrix

WHEN TO USE SWOT? SWOT can be used in the beginning of a foresight process to identify the current situation and the perceived threats

and opportunities. As it is easy to do, it provides a good starting point for a more in-depth analysis.

MORE INFORMATION • EFP foresight guide

• UNIDO technology foresight manual

DELPHI

(Source: EFP foresight guide, Practical foresight)

Delphi is survey technique that involves repeated polling of the same individuals, feeding back anonymised responses

from earlier rounds of polling, with the idea that this will allow for better judgements to be made without undue

influence from forceful or high-status advocates.

HOW TO DO IT? Selection of the topic: The subject should be one where there is a lack of hard data on future trends. In some cases,

one thematic field is enough, in many cases the aim is to get an overview so that more fields are decided on and

handled in a flexible way. There is always the possibility to add, remove or re-name fields.

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Designing the questionnaire: Writing the questions or statements. The questions should be clearly defined, possible

to answer, and match the statements made. The statements have to be formulated in a way that the criteria or

questions can be judged on the basis of them. Other questions may be related to the possible constraints (economical,

technological, social, political) to the occurrence of event or development. When designing the questionnaire, it is

important to consider from the beginning how to give feedback to the participants during the second round. The usual

way is to provide percentages or graphics from the accumulated data in a similar way as in the first round

questionnaire. However, there is much room for creativity, especially with online questionnaires.

Selection of the panel of experts: Care is needed in recruiting the panel and the criteria for selection should be set

out. Before an expert agrees to take part in a Delphi inquiry, he/she should understand the purpose of the inquiry and

should be aware that his/ her expertise should be made available in different rounds of the inquiry. The Delphi

method has an iterative nature. If the exercise is to maintain its credibility the tendency for panel members to drop

out after the first round should be minimised.

WHEN TO USE IT? Usually, the goal (and the result) of a Delphi study is to organise a debate, to collect and synthesise opinions and to

achieve a degree of convergence. It is a valuable tool for communication and for exchanging opinions on a topic,

making experts’ tacit knowledge of the future more explicit. It is also useful for longer-term assessments where

extrapolations make no sense. It can help to gather the opinions of a larger group of experts and in fields where there

is not a lot of evidence about the developments and where experts often do not dare to explain their real opinion. It is

conducted anonymously in order not to let anyone lose face in the event of a change of opinion. The methodology is

designed to avoid domination by particular individuals.

MORE INFORMATION • EFP foresight guide

• Practical foresight

• UNIDO technology foresight manual

EXPERT PANELS

(source: EFP foresight guide)

Expert panels are one of the most frequently used methods in Foresight. The method aims at eliciting existing expert

knowledge. The panels are typically groups of 12-20 individuals who represent different disciplines and who are given

3-18 months to deliberate upon the future of a given topic area, whether it be a technology, an application area, or an

economic sector. The methods do not provide direct guidance for the implementation. It provides a flexible

framework and other methods like scenarios and participatory facilitation methods are typically used as a part of the

process.

HOW TO DO IT? • Determine issue to study.

• Select experts and define their roles

• Determine method of engagement: telephone interview, face-to face, meeting, electronic etc.

• Reaching consensus and identifying priorities

• Dissemination of Panel findings

WHEN TO USE IT?

Gathering relevant information and knowledge

Synthesising the information gathered

Stimulating new insights and creative views and providing a vision of future possibilities, as well as creating

new networks

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Diffusing the Foresight process and its results to much wider constituencies

Influencing Foresight in terms of follow-up action

MORE INFORMATION • EFP foresight guide

• Practical foresight

• UNIDO technology foresight manual

ROADMAPPING

(source: EFP foresight guide)

Figure 10. Roadmap structure

Road-mapping is a vision driven tool for presenting the path from the current state to the desired future state. It

provides a graphical presentation of the nodes representing state of knowledge and their interdependencies, which

link the current development trends to the desired future. The detailed process can be implemented in many ways

and the method is often combined with vision building and participatory methods.

Roadmaps communicate visions, attract resources from business and government, stimulate investigations and

monitor progress. They become the inventory of possibilities for a particular field…

Robert Galvin, Chairman and CEO of Motorola

HOW TO DO IT The construction of the roadmap consists of collecting, synthesising and validating the information, and representing

the trends within graphical displays associated with support documents. It is neither practical nor desirable to attempt

to develop a single, standardised methodology. Rather, the approach should be based on a light and modular process

using a “toolbox” with different modules depending on the roadmapping areas, issues, context and objectives.

Here we will describe the roadmap framework that is used in VTT:

Technologies

Products,

solutions

Markets

Present Short term Medium to long term

VISION

Drivers

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1. Defining the focus and time scale of the roadmap. Time scale depends on the focus:

1 year may be good for a specific rapidly changing technology in product development,

5 years for existing larger technology or business concepts,

10 years for emerging technology fields and

longer than 10 years for studying changes in infrastructure, e.g. buildings or traffic systems.

2. Building the vision. A vision is a plausible and desired state of the future. It should cover the technical goal as

well as information about products and solutions, actors, markets and drivers.

3. Creating roadmap content. What are the technologies, products and solutions, markets and drivers in the

present, intermediate goal and in the vision. These are placed on the timeline and structure presented in

figure 10. After filling the roadmap it can be reflected with the following questions:

Does the roadmap contain relevant elements?

Is the roadmap future-oriented? Can it be used to identify future challenges?

Is there enough interaction between technologies and business model?

WHEN TO USE ROADMAPPING?

Roadmaps can be applied

In definition and embedding of R&D targets

In characterization of development and competence needs

As a strategic tool to combine different temporal perspectives and aims of a firm

As a tool to map the changes in the markets

As a tool plan business activities and networks

In the anticipation of the long-term changes in the environment

As a tool raise awareness of technological and environmental changes, especially in combination with scenarios

EXAMPLES & MORE INFORMATION

Victoria roadmap training 2009

EFP foresight guide: roadmapping

Practical foresight: Methods

SCENARIOS

(source: EFP foresight guide)

A scenario is a “story” illustrating visions of possible

future or aspects of possible future. It is perhaps the

most emblematic Foresight or future studies

method. Scenarios are not predictions about the

future but rather similar to simulations of some

possible futures. They are used both as an

exploratory method or a tool for decision-making,

mainly to highlight the discontinuities from the

present and to reveal the choices available and their

potential consequences.

To be effective, scenarios must be plausible, consistent and offer insights into the future.

Plausibility: A scenario must be plausible. This means that it must fall within the limits of what might

conceivably happen.

Consistency: A scenario must be internally consistent. This means that the combination of logics in a scenario

must not have any built-in inconsistency that could undermine the credibility of the scenario.

Figure 11. UK foresight "environment" scenarios

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Decision-making utility: each scenario, and all scenarios if they constitute a set, should contribute specific

insights into the future that will lead to the decision focus that was selected.

HOW TO BUILD A SCENARIO?

There are many different possible ways of developing scenarios. EFP guide divides the process into 6 steps:

Step 1: Identify the focal issue: “What are the key factors we would like to know about the future in order to

improve the quality of our decisions?”

Step 2: Identify the key drivers that will influence the listed key forces at macro and micro-level. The list of

the driving factors should include Social, Technological, Economic (macro), Environmental, Political and

Values (STEEPV).The aim is to start building a conceptual model of the relevant environment that includes

critical trends and forces and maps out the cause-and-effect relationship among the forces.

Step 3: Rank the driving forces on the basis of two criteria: the degree of ‘importance’ of the focal issue

identified in Step 1, and the degree of ‘uncertainty’ surrounding those factors and trends.

Step 4: Selecting scenario logics. The results of the ranking exercise of previous step help identifying the axes

along which the scenarios can be constructed.

Step 5: Develop a number of internally consistent story lines which project as much as possible of what has

been learned through the process up to now. Scenarios should be plausible, different, consistent, challenging

and relevant for decision making.

Step 6: Implications of scenarios: “What are the strategic implications of the scenarios for the particular

decision we selected at the outset of this process?”, “What options do the scenarios suggest?”

WHEN TO USE SCENARIOS? Scenarios can help public sector executives to think in a disciplined way about the future when making public policy

decisions. The method helps the decision-maker to consider the range of plausible futures, to articulate preferred

visions of the future, to use what is learned during the scenario development process in the formal decision-making

process to foster exceptional leadership. It also helps to stimulate creativity and to break from the conventional

obsession with present and short-term problems.

EXAMPLES & MORE INFORMATION

World Economic Forum’s Mining & Metals Scenarios to 2030: Video, report (PDF)

EFP foresight guide

Practical foresight: methods

BACKCASTING

(source: EFP foresight guide)

Defines a desirable future and then works backwards to identify major events and decision that generated the future,

to allow organizations to consider what actions, policies and programs are needed today that will connect the future

to the present. Backcasting reminds participants that the future is not linear, and can have many alternative outcomes

depending on decisions made and the impact of external events on an organization.

HOW TO DO IT? The main characteristic of the Backcasting approach is to involve stakeholders at an early stage in the Foresight

process and develop a future long term vision of the desired scenario. Then all participants can translate this back to

actual action (“think in jumps, act in steps”). The following steps can be followed:

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1. Strategic problem orientation and definition: Orientation on the problem to assess the present need and

clarify current and future unsustainable aspects. This includes the identification of relevant stakeholders.

2. Development of future vision: The next step is to create visions on how a future can be established where

the assessed problems and unsustainable aspects are solved.

3. Backcasting: Set out alternative solutions; possible ways to develop the desired future are developed and

discussed among the participants.

4. Explore solutions/options and identify bottlenecks: The different solution pathways are further defined and

analysed to prepare on the selection process in the next step. A possible method to use can be LCA.

5. Selection of option and implementation of action plan: The pathways are discussed among the participating

stakeholders and a selection is made for one pathway to be made operational. Part of this step is developing

an action plan, including ways to tackle the bottlenecks identified.

6. Define roles of stakeholders and setup co-operation agreements: A solid platform for action is set up, in

which all major stakeholders participate. Responsibilities are set in long term agreements and an innovation

champion is identified who can carry the work forward.

7. Implement research agenda: In the last step, the action plan is translated and implemented to the research

and development agendas or the individual participating stakeholders

WHEN TO USE BACKCASTING? The method is used in situations where there is a normative objective and fundamentally uncertain future events that

influence these objectives. The knowledge about the system conditions and the underlying social dynamics can also

have a powerful impact on the environment, but are unpredictable. The need for participation of stakeholders is

strong and the future vision cannot be realised by a hierarchical approach, or limited stakeholders. The desired future

cannot be achieved by simply extrapolation from the present arrangements, but need a fundamental different

approach of fulfilling the social need.

MORE INFORMATION

Practical foresight: methods

EFP foresight guide

FUTURES WHEEL

(Source: Practical foresight: Methods)

The Futures Wheel is a way of organizing thinking and questioning about

the future––a kind of structured brainstorming. It produces a graphical

visualization of direct and indirect future consequences of a change or

development.

HOW TO CONSTRUCT A FUTURES WHEEL? A group decides to brainstorm about a trend, idea, future event, or value.

The subject is written in the middle of a piece of paper, a flip chart, black

board, or on an overhead projector transparency. Next, the leader of the

brainstorming session draws an oval around the item and asks the group

to say what necessarily goes with this item. As impacts or consequences

are offered by the group, the leader draws short wheel-like spokes out

from the central oval and writes these impacts at the end of each spoke.

Next, the leader asks the group to forget about the original item in the middle of the Futures Wheel and to give the

most likely impacts for each of the primary impacts of the first ring of primary consequences. As these secondary

impacts are offered by the group, the leader draws two or three short spokes out from each of the ovals around the

Figure 12. Futures wheel

20

primary impacts to form a second ring and writes the name of these secondary impacts at the end of each spoke and

draws ovals around them.

At first, this process goes quickly, with participants listing second, third, and fourth order consequences with little or

no evaluation. After the group feels its thinking is represented on the wheel, they can evaluate and edit the wheel to

be more "realistic." This step is similar to the clarification part in other brainstorming processes.

WHEN TO USE FUTURES WHEEL? The Futures Wheel is most commonly used to:

think through possible impacts of current trends or potential future events;

organize thoughts about future events or trends;

create forecasts within alternative scenarios;

show complex interrelationships;

display other futures research;

develop multi-concepts;

nurture a futures-conscious perspective; and

aid in group brainstorming.

EXAMPLES & MORE INFORMATION

Practical foresight: Methods

OTHER METHODS

(sources: EFP foresight guide, Practical foresight, UNIDO technology foresight manual, Futures research methodology, The handbook of technology

foresight)

Method Description Key question More

information*

Agent Modelling Agent-based modelling is a way of simulating a system from the

bottom up, by modelling the behaviour of individual "agents" or

actors in the system.

How changes in individual

behaviours will affect the

system’s emerging overall

behaviour?

EFP

Backcasting Backcasting is an approach that involves working back from an

imagined future, to establish what path might take us there from

the present. Backcasting is used in complex situations with many

stakeholders where although there is a desired future vision, it is

unclear how to reach it.

What needs to happen for a

scenario to become reality?

EFP

Bibliometrics Bibliometrics comprises a set of methods used to study or

measure texts and information.They can be used to identify

emerging research fields that can offer disruptive technologies in

the short, middle or long run.

What can be deducted from

scientific papers published?

EFP

Brainstorming Brainstorming is a creative and interactive method used in face-

to-face and online group working sessions to generate new ideas

around a specific area of interest.

What ideas does this topic raise? EFP

21

Method Description Key question More

information*

Causal layered

analysis

Causal Layered Analysis identifies the driving forces and

worldviews underpinning diverse perspectives about the future

and what it means to groups. Through group discussion, sharing

of diverse perspectives, and surfacing contrasting worldviews and

underpinning myths, the method encourages the deconstructing

of conventional thinking to produce a shared view of possible

future outcomes that can break existing paradigms of thinking

and operating.

What are the driving forces and

worldviews behind our view of

the future?

PF

Conference /

workshop

Conferences/workshops are more or less structured events of

meetings lasting from a few hours to a few days, in which there is

typically a mix of talks, presentations, and discussions and

debates on a particular subject. They are common settings for

networking, knowledge exchange and consensus building.

What can we achieve together? DF

Critical & Key

Technology study

Critical and Key technology study is a method to set research and

development policy priorities for policy makers by applying sets of

criteria against which the importance or criticality of particular

technologies can be measured. It is usually based on interviews

with experts in the forecast technology.

In what technologies should we

focus on in research and

development?

EFP

Cross-impact analysis Cross Impact Analysis attempts to connect relationships between

events and variables. These relationships are then categorized as

positive or negative to each other, and are used to determine

which events or scenarios are most probable or likely to occur

within a given time frame.

How do different events

influence each other?

EFP

Decision modeling Decision modeling is a way to structure a decision by identifying

specific criteria and assessing how well competing options meet

those criteria. attempts to develop a model of the decision

process applied by decisionmakers to important decisions within

the system.

How to make a decision? PF

Delphi Delphi is survey technique that involves repeated polling of the

same individuals, feeding back anonymised responses from earlier

rounds of polling, with the idea that this will allow for better

judgements to be made without undue influence from forceful or

high-status advocates.

What are the views of a group of

experts on an issue or issues?

EFP

Environmental

scanning

Environmental or Horizon Scanning is the art of systematically

exploring the external environment to better understand the

nature and pace of change in that environment, and identify

potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future

developments relevant to your organization. Environmental

Scanning explores both new, strange, and weird ideas, as well as

persistent challenges and trends today.

What is the environment around

an issue like?

EFP

Expert panels Expert panels are groups of people dedicated to analysing and

combining their knowledge concerning a given are of interest. The

panels are typically groups of 12-20 individuals who are given 3-18

months to deliberate upon the future of a given topic area,

whether it be a technology (e.g. nanotechnology), an application

area (e.g. health), or an economic sector (e.g. pharmaceuticals).

What are the common opinions

of experts about an issue?

EFP

22

Method Description Key question More

information*

Futures wheel The Futures Wheel is a way of organizing thinking and questioning

about the future––a kind of structured brainstorming.

What are the direct and indirect

impacts of an issue?

PF

Gaming Games are mainly designed to aid decisions, planning, and policy

implementation, by getting a clearer idea of possible reactions of

other people involved. Gaming deals with human issues, making it

a good way to help people understand the planning process and

other people's viewpoints

What happens if…? EFP

Genius forecasting Genius forecasting is the generation of a vision (or several visions)

of the future through the insights of a gifted and respected

individual. Some individuals can provide fresh thinking to

foresight, and can take up perspectives that may otherwise be

neglected in the work of committees and panels.

What does a particular authority

or expert think are the futures of

an issue?

UNIDO

Horizon scanning Horizon scanning is systematic examination of potential threats,

opportunities and likely future developments that are at the

margins of current thinking and planning. It may explore novel

and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends

What are the signals of change? EFP

Modelling &

simulation

Modelling is the process of creating and experimenting with a

computerised mathematical model imitating the behaviour of a

real-world process or system over time. It is a quantitative,

analytic approach that can be used for analysis and simulation of

a possible future.

What is the mathematical

description of the system?

EFP

Morphological

analysis / Relevance

trees

Morphological analysis and relevance trees are normative

forecasting methods that start with future needs or objectives

and map all the options to obtain an overall perspective of

possible solutions.

What are all the possible

solutions to an issue?

EFP

Multi-criteria analysis Multi-criteria analysis is a prioritisation and decision-support

technique specially developed for complex situations and

problems, where there are multiple criteria in which to weigh the

effect of a particular intervention. The method works by asking

participants to assess the importance of various evaluative

criteria, and the impact of a series of options, policies or

strategies in each criteria.

What is the best option based on

a set of criteria (and what are the

criteria)?

EFP

Roadmapping Road-mapping is a vision driven tool for presenting the path from

the current state to the desired future state. It provides a

graphical presentation of the nodes representing state of

knowledge and their interdependencies, which link the current

development trends to the desired future. The detailed process

can be implemented in many ways and the method is often

combined with vision building and participatory methods.

What is the road from here to

preferred future?

EFP

Scenarios Scenario planning creates plausible views of the future that

decision-makers can use to determine their best response and

how to react to alternative plays. Scenarios are qualitatively

distinct visions, told as stories, of how the future looks.

What are the plausible futures

like?

EFP

23

Method Description Key question More

information*

Stakeholder analysis Stakeholder analysis is a strategic planning technique which takes

into account the interests and strengths of different stakeholders,

in order to identify key objectives in a system and recognise

potential alliances, conflicts, and strategies.

What are the objectives of

stakeholders and how will they

affect the futures?

DF

Structural analysis Structural analysis is a tool designed to linkup ideas and identify

key drivers by using a cross-impact matrix. It includes listing all

relevant variables, studying their interrelations and identifying key

variables.

What are the linkages between

elements of an issue?

EFP

SWOT SWOT analysis is a widely used technique to identify, categorise

and analyse significant internal (Strengths and Weaknesses) and

external (Opportunities and Threats) factors faced in an

organisation, territory, region, nation, or city.

What are the internal strengths

and weaknesses and the external

opportunities and threats?

EFP

System dynamics System Dynamics is an approach for understanding the behaviour

of complex systems over time. It is based on models describing

internal feedback loops, time delays, and stocks and flows.

What is the behaviour of the

system?

EFP

Technology sequence

analysis

Technology Sequence Analysis is a probabilistic method of

estimation of when future events might occur. It links

intermediate technology steps into a network of cause and effect

and assigns probabilities to these links.

When will a technology be

available?

PF

Text mining Text mining identifies patterns and breakthrough occurrences in

large amounts of raw data and information gathered from

internal or external sources. The goal is to discover previously

unknown information to the researcher.

What can be deducted from a

large body of text?

PF

Trend impact analysis Trend impact analysis is a forecasting method that permits

extrapolations of historical trends to be modified in view of

expectations about future events. It aims to identify potential

impacts of major trends or events and assess their likelihood, time

of occurrence, strength and expected consequences.

How will trends develop and

what is their impact?

PF

Trend intra &

extrapolation

Trend extrapolation involves the construction and use of linear,

exponential or s-shaped curves, which describe possible trends.

The technique does not provide an analysis of complex underlying

driving forces, but builds on projections of well-established causal

relationships

What will the future be like

according to present trends?

EFP

Wild cards Wild Cards are high-impact events that seem too incredible, or

are considered too unlikely, to happen; yet many do. They are

identified usually by small groups of highly skilled people capable

of combining expertise, examining data and creative thinking.

What unprobable event would

have a major impact?

PF

World Cafe World cafe is an informal and flexible brainstorming technique in

which participants through common dialogue test views and

opinions, exchange experience and develop visions and ideas.

Participants work at café tables, in small groups in a joint forum

and share and exchange knowledge and views when they move to

different tables

What are the different opinions

about an issue?

EFP

*EFP = EFP foresight guide, PF = Practical futures, DF = Doing foresight, UNIDO = UNIDO technology foresight manual.

24

RELATED CONCEPTS

SYSTEM TRANSITIONS

(source: VTT working papers 99)

Foresight is often applied when there is a perceived need for change. For instance, the change may be related to

forthcoming budgetary changes which call for new strategic priorities. Alternatively, foresight may be initiated in the

conditions of overwhelming inertia and observed difficulties to generate change to improve organizational

performance or regional competitiveness, for instance. Wider societal and structural long-term changes are often

referred to as transitions.

System transitions are complex societal co-evolutionary processes that are typically led by gradual adaptation rather

than visionary management or coordination. Still, visionary coordination of policies, regulation, corporate strategies

and social learning may overcome some barriers and foster new innovation efforts providing sufficient impetus

towards system transition.

Techno-institutional systems tend to go through long periods of relative stability, which is followed by shorter periods

of structural change, transition. The process of transition is gradual one, and follows transition phases that reflect an

S-shaped-curve (figure 13):

1) Predevelopment (incubation) with the diversity of experimentation activities.

2) Take-off of the process of transition.

3) Acceleration of the change process with the increasing returns of economies of scale that support the

diffusion of new solutions and lead to structural change.

4) Stabilization with the decreases in the speed of societal change.

Figure 13. The phases of structural change

The transition is a complex multidimensional societal change process dealing with the co-evolution of technological,

industrial, policy and social changes. The S-curve is highly simplified illustration of such a process, developed to

conceptualize the development and diffusion of an individual technology.

Another key element of transition theorising is the parallel analysis of societal developments in different levels,

including niche, regime and landscape level developments. The multi-level ‘niche-regime-landscape’ analysis doesn’t

refer to multiple aggregation levels as such: the issues focused at each level are selected on the basis of their

25

relevance to the specific system transition in hand. Specific attention is paid to the interconnections between these

levels of analysis, focusing on issues relevant to the particular context in question.

Landscape forms an exogenous macro level environment that influences developments in niches and

regimes.

Regime refers to the established mainstream techno-institutional policy, industrial and user system delivering

a specific function in society. The regime is dynamically stable and not prescribed by external constraints but

mainly shaped and maintained through the mutual adaptation and co-evolution of its actors and elements.

Niche forms the level where radical novelties emerge that deviate from the existing regime.

Further to the phases of transition and the levels of analysis, the analysis of systems transitions benefits from the

identification of relevant dimensions of the societal change, such as technological, industrial, policy and social change:

Technological change: Dominant designs, emerging technologies, infrastructures, interoperability

Industrial change: Standards, value chains and networks, organisational hierarchies and practices,

investment mechanisms, intellectual property

Policy change: Information services, networking, setting common agendas, strategic procurement, financing

research and education, grants, equity support and fiscal measures, regulation and standards

Social change: Behaviour, routines, preferences, attitudes, values, user involvement

The above described four phases of transition, three levels of analysis and the four dimensions of the system

transition are important elements in the analysis of system transition. In particular, when these elements are

combined to a common framework it is possible to identify transition drivers and barriers in more detail. The

combined approach supports the positioning of specific developments at one defined moment in time. However, this

type of presentation is static leaving out time, which is crucial when evolutionary processes are dealt with. This

framework needs to be adapted to the co-evolution of different technologies and systems that are likely to exist in

parallel but in different phases of transition. Towards this end the transition phases can be replaced with the timeline

that allows explicit analyses of the co-evolution of various transition phases within different dimensions and levels

(Figure 14).

Figure 14. Time, levels and dimensions of transitions.

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KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND CONTEXT

(source: Nonaka I., Toyama R., Konno N. 2000. SECI, Ba and leadership: a unified model of dynamic knowledge creation)

Foresight creates new knowledge about the futures. One way to examine this is with the phases and contexts

described in the SECI-model (Nonaka et al. 2001). The phases of the SECI-model are Socialization, Externalization,

Combination and Internalization and the related contexts (called ba) are Originating, Dialoguing, Systemizing and

Exercising ba (figure 15). New knowledge is created in a spiral comprising of socialization, where people share their

tacit information through face-to-face interaction, externalisation, where tacit knowledge is converted to explicit

knowledge through eg. metaphors, combination, where explicit knowledge from different sources is synthesised to

form new understanding and internalisation, where explicit knowledge is embodied through practice. These phases

take place in the physical, virtual and mental contexts called ba.

Figure 15. SECI-model

The model emphasizes openness, trust and motivation for sharing and receiving knowledge. Ba is a temporary

common place for exploring new insights, learning, socializing and developing new ideas. It can be a physical space,

such as a conference room, cafeteria, office; a virtual space, such as email, video conference, discussion forum; or a

mental space, such as shared ideas, common values and mental models. Creative chaos, suitable ambiguity, empathy,

caring and commitment enables the strengthening of ba. The successful application of the SECI-model requires solid

and systematical facilitation.

27

GLOSSARY

(source: Practical foresight, EFP)

Action research

Investigación y acción

Investigación comparativa sobre las condiciones y efectos de varias formas de acción social e investigación que produce acción social. Comparative research on the conditions and effects of various forms of social action and research leading to social action

Actor Actor Cualquier interesado (persona, grupo u organización) que pueda estar involucrado o afectado al sistema sometido a este estudio. Any stakeholder (person, group or organization) that can affect a system under study.

Alternate future

Futuro alternativo

Un futuro “posible” que puede o no materializarse. A possible future that may or may not ever come to pass.

Ambiguity Ambiguëdad Comunicación interpretada en más de una manera. Communication interpreted in more than one way.

Analogy Analogía El proceso cognitivo de transferir información de un tema en particular (análogo o fuente) a otro tema particular (el objetivo). The cognitive process of transferring information from a particular subject (the analogue or source) to another particular subject (the target).

Assumption surfacing

Asunción emergente

Revela las presunciones subyacentes de una determinada política o plan ayudando a crear un mapa para explorarlas. Reveals the underlying assumptions of a policy or plan and helps create a map for exploring them.

Balanced feedback loop

Bucle de retroalimentación equilibrada

Un estabilizador, (“goal-seeking”), regulador del proceso de retroalimentación, también conocido como “proceso/circuito de retroalimentación negativo”. A stabilizing, goal-seeking, regulating feedback loop, also known as a “negative feedback loop”.

Benchmarking Punto de referencia

Un proceso en que las organizaciones evalúan varios aspectos de sus procesos en relación a la mejor práctica, generalmente con y/o dentro su propio sector. A process in which organizations evaluate various aspects of their processes in relation to best practice, usually within their own sector.

Bottom-up approach

Enfoque de abajo arriba

Una situación en que un proceso emerge a partir de diferentes fragmentos armados durante el camino. La dirección en su totalidad y la cobertura del ejercicio no está completamente definida al principio, y un fuerte énfasis se coloca en la interacción entre los participantes. A situation where the process emerges from the different bits and pieces assembled along the way. The overall direction and coverage of the exercise is not completely defined at the outset and strong emphasis is placed on interaction between participants.

Bounded rationality

La racionalidad limitada

La lógica que lleva a decisiones o acciones que tienen sentido dentro de una parte del sistema pero que no son razonables con respecto a un contexto más amplio o cuando son analizados como parte de un sistema de mayor amplitud. The logic that leads to decisions or actions that make sense within one part of the system but are not reasonable within a broader context or when seen as part of a wider system.

Brainstorming Lluvia de ideas Método de discusión intensivo que tiene como objetivo resolver problemas ý/o generar ideas. Intensive discussion method to solve problems or generate ideas.

Butterfly effect El efecto mariposa

Engloba la noción de mayor técnica de dependencia sensitiva sobre condiciones iniciales pertenecientes a la teoría del caos. Pequeñas variaciones de la condición inicial perteneciente a unsistema dinámico, podrá producir grandes variaciones en el comportamiento del sistema a largo plazo. Encapsulates the more technical notion of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory. Small variations of the initial condition of a dynamical system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system.

Causal models Los modelos causales

Técnicas utilizadas como un medio para indagar sobre las causas de fenómenos sociales, y generar un conjunto de pronósticos sobre el curso próximo del fenómeno. Techniques used as a means to inquire into the causes of social phenomena and to generate a set of forecasts as to the future course of the phenomena.

Causality Causalidad Relaciones representadas en mapas cognitivos y mapas ovales a través de una flecha, donde la flecha deberá leerse/interpretarse como “conduce a”. Relationships represented in cognitive maps and oval maps by an arrow where the arrow should be read as “leads to.”

Chaos Caos Desorden completo, confusión absoluta. Complete disorder, utter confusion.

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Chaos theory La teoría del caos

Describe el comportamiento de ciertos sistemas dinámicos – es decir, sistemas cuyo sistema evoluciona con el tiempo – que pueden exhibir dinamismos que son altamente sensibles a condiciones iniciales (popularmente conocido como el efecto mariposa). Describes the behavior of certain dynamical systems – that is, systems whose state evolves with time – that may exhibit dynamics that are highly sensitive to initial conditions (popularly referred to as the butterfly effect).

Chronology Cronología Eventos o acciones en secuencia por orden de ocurrencia; ver línea de tiempo. Sequenced events or actions in the order they occurred; see timeline.

Citation analysis

Análisis de citas El examen de la frecuencia y del patrón de citas en artículos y libros. The examination of the frequency and pattern of citations in articles and books.

Cognitive bias Sesgo cognitivo La tendencia humana a cometer errores sistemáticos en ciertas circunstancias basadas en factores cognitivos, en lugar de la evidencia. The human tendency to make systematic errors in certain circumstances based on cognitive factors rather than evidence

Cognitive map Mapa cognitivo Un mapa inconsciente (“mind map”) que representa las perspectivas y aportaciones (“inputs”) de un individuo. Típicamente utilizado para aclarar o comunicar pensamientos e ideas. A mind map that represents the perspectives and inputs of an individual. Typically used to clarify or to communicate thinking

Collaboration Colaboración Trabajar con otro u otros en un proyecto conjunto. To work with another or others on a joint project.

Complexity Complejidad

Utilizado para caracterizar algo con muchas partes en un arreglo complejo. Used to characterize something with many parts in intricate arrangement.

Concept map Mapa conceptual

Un mapa mental que representa las perspectivas y aportaciones de múltiples individuos. A mind map that represents the perspectives and inputs of multiple individuals.

Context Contexto Las circunstancias y condiciones que “rodean” a un objeto. En el caso especifico de un ejercicio de Prospectiva esto incluye los actores, (ej.: as instituciones, cuerpos que toman decisiones, asociaciones, ONG´s, grupos que se dedican al “lobby”, y también la cultura y legislación). The circumstances and conditions which “surround” an object. In the specific case of a Foresight exercise this includes the actors, i.e. the institutions, decision-making bodies, associations, NGOs, lobbying groups, and also the legislation and the culture.

Convergence Convergencia La mezcla de cultura e ideas en un solo producto. The blending of culture and ideas into a single product.

Cost-benefit analysis

Análisis coste-beneficio

Un término que se refiere tanto a: - una disciplina formal utilizada para ayudar a evaluar o asesorar, - un caso para un proyecto o propuesta, que a su vez es un proceso conocido como proyecto de evaluación, y - un enfoque informal para hacer decisiones de cualquier tipo. A term that refers both to: – a formal discipline used to help appraise, or assess, the case for a project or proposal, which itself is a process known as project appraisal; and – an informal approach to making decisions of any kind.

Counter-intuitive

Contrario a la intuición

Expectaciones opuestas a expectaciones normales. Counter to normal expectations.

Creeping normalcy

‘Creeping normalcy’

Se refiere a la forma en que un cambio importante puede ser aceptado como normal si ocurre con lentitud, en incrementos desadvertidos, en todo caso se consideraría objetable si ocurre en un solo paso o en un periodo corto. Refers to the way a major change can be accepted as normality if it happens slowly, in unnoticed increments, when it would be regarded as objectionable if it took place in a single step or short period

Critical technologies

Las tecnologías críticas

Evalúa el impacto futuro y potencial de tecnologías nuevas y emergentes. Evaluates the future impact and potential of super new and emerging technologies.

Decision Decisión Juicio, conclusión, veredicto. El acto de decidirse.Judgement, conclusion, verdict. The act of making up one’s mind.

Decision analysis

Análisis de decisión

La disciplina que comprende la filosofía, teoría, metodología, y la práctica profesional necesaria para afrontar decisiones importantes de una manera formal. The discipline comprising the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner.

Decomposition Descomposición

Desglosando un pronóstico en las tendencias que la componen. Breaking down a forecast into its component trends.

Devil’s Advocate

El abogado del diablo

Una técnica para tomar una posición contraria a la decisión o a la hipótesis propuesta. A technique to take a counter position against an offered decision or hypothesis.

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Diagram Diagrama Utilizada para representar una forma de comunicación orientada visualmente, que incluye fotos, dibujos, vídeos, diagramas de bucles causales, matrices, etc., en oposición a lo verbal, textual o la comunicación a través de oraciones. Used to represent a visually oriented form of communication, including pictures, drawings, video, causal loop diagrams, matrices, etc., as opposed to verbal, textual, or sentential communication.

Discontinuity Discontinuidad Variación importante de una tendencia que es tan drástica, que no puede ser contabilizada o representada a través de una variación normal. Major shift in a trend that is so drastic it cannot be accounted for by normal variation.

Dissemination Diseminación El proceso de creación de un resultado a través de un ejercicio de prospectiva, conocida como el rango más amplio por los interesados. The process of making the output of a Foresight exercise known to the widest possible range of stakeholders.

Divergence Divergencia La separación de cultura e ideas en muchos productos. Separation of culture and ideas into many products.

Divination Adivinación El arte o práctica de descubrir eventos futuros o hechos desconocidos. The art or practice of discovering future events or unknown things the act or state of expecting or the state of being expected.

Double-loop learning

Aprendizaje de circuito doble

Involucra no sólo el reconocimiento de la falta de coincidencia entre el estado actual y los estados deseados, sino también, utilizando dicha falta de coincidencia para evaluar y modificar, modelos mentales y reglas involucradas al configurar una acción que responda a la falta de coincidencia. Involves not only recognizing the mismatch between actual and desired states, but also using the mismatch to evaluate and modify mental models and rules involved in determining an action to respond to the mismatch.

Driving force Fuerza motriz Una agrupación de tendencias individuales sobre la misma materia que moviliza las tendencias en ciertas direcciones, con un amplio alcance y de largo plazo por naturaleza (por ejemplo: globalización). A cluster of individual trends on the same general subject moving trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature (for example, globalization).

Dystopia Distopia o antiutopía

Cualquier sociedad, con abundantes características indeseables. Este término está frecuentemente emplazado en el futuro cercano, donde las consecuencias de la manipulación y adoctrinamiento masivo, (generalmente a cargo de un Estado autoritario o totalitario), llevan al control absoluto. Any real or imaginary society with many undesirable features. This term is often set in the near future, where the consequences of mass manipulation and indoctrination (usually run by an authoritarian or totalitarian State), leading to have the control.

Econometrics Econometría Relacionado con las tareas de desarrollo y aplicación cuantitativa, o con métodos de estadística para el estudio y aclaración de principios económicos. Concerned with the tasks of developing and applying quantitative or statistical methods to the study and elucidation of economic principles.

Effects Effectos Todos los cambios vinculados al cambio propiamente dicho y causante de esos cambios vinculados. All the linked changes that change itself causes.

Emerging issue Tema emergente

Situaciones emergentes que reflejan el potencial de los impactos de los cambios y tendencias que ocurren en negocios o en el contexto de la política. A menudo son complejos, poco claros e inciertos; pueden reflejar conflictos o diferencias a través de los valores o prioridades entre diferentes grupos; pueden variar su foco de atención, prioridad y conciencia – a partir de algo marginal a algo corriente- rápidamente dependiendo del contexto dentro del cual está ocurriendo. Emerging issues reflect the potential impacts of changes and trends occurring in the wider business or policy context. They are often unclear, complex, and uncertain; may reflect conflict or differences across values or priorities among different groups; can shift in focus, priority and awareness – from fringe to mainstream – rapidly depending on the context within which they are occurring.

Emerging Issues Analysis

Análisis de Temas Emergentes

Busca identificar tendencias que aún no han emergido, y puede que nunca emerjan totalmente, desde la periferia. Seeks to identify trends that have not yet emerged, and may never fully emerge, from the periphery.

Environmental impact assessment

Evaluación del impacto ambiental

Una valoración de la posible influencia positiva y/o negativa que puede tener un proyecto sobre el medio ambiente. An assessment of the likely positive and/or negative influence a project may have on the environment.

Environmental scanning

Escaneo del entorno

Proceso de recolección de información con el fin de realizar un análisis sistemático de las fuerzas que afectan las organizaciones, e identificar potenciales amenazas y oportunidades para generar futuras estrategias. Process of collecting information to carry out a systematic analysis of the forces effecting organizations and identifying potential threats and opportunities with a view to generating future strategies.

Event Evento Algo que sucede interna o externamente en la estructura organizacional que puede ser observada y rastreada, usualmente documentada como un resultado de escaneo exitoso. Something happening in the internal or external organizational environment which can be observed and tracked; usually documented as a “scanning hit”.

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Exploratory futures

Futuros de exploración

Investigación de futuros plausibles sin la consideración de conveniencia. Futures research into plausible futures without consideration of desirability

Extrapolation Extrapolación Extendiendo una tendencia hacia el futuro asumiendo que las variables seguirán comportándose como lo han hecho en el pasado. Extending a trend into the future by assuming the variables will continue to behave as they have in the past.

Feedback Realimentación Un proceso mediante el cual alguna proporción de salida de un sistema es convertido en su entrada. A process whereby some proportion of the output signal of a system is passed (fed back) to the input.

Forecasting Predicción Una estimación de lo que podría suceder en el futuro. An estimate of what might happen in the future.

Foreknowledge Presciencia o conocimiento previo

El conocimiento previo de un suceso o cosa (antes de que exista). Knowledge of an event or thing before it exists, prescience.

Foresight La Prospectiva El conocimiento o percepción adquirida mirando hacia el futuro, una percepción de la naturaleza de los eventos antes de que ocurran. Knowledge or insight gained by looking into the future, perception of the nature of events before they occur

Futura Futura Los eventos que aún no han ocurrido y son incognoscibles, en oposición al pasado que ha ocurrido y es cognoscible. Events that have not yet occurred and are unknowable, as opposed to the past that has occurred and is knowable

Future Futuro El tiempo que todavía está por llegar. The time yet to come.

Future present Presente Futuro

El presente del futuro que cualquier imagen describe, o el futuro considerado como si lo estuviéramos viviendo ahora, con nuestro futuro y presente. The present-day of the future any image describes, or the future considered as if we were living in it now, with our present and past.

Future shock El choque del futuro

Demasiado cambio en un corto periodo de tiempo. Too much change in too short a period of time.

Future studies Los estudios de Futuros

La exploración sistemática del futuro. The systematic exploration of the future.

Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

Análisis de Tecnología orientada hacia el Futuro

Un término que agrupa la tecnología de prospectiva, la tecnología de previsión y la tecnología de evaluación. An umbrella term for technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment.

Futures Futuros Rutinariamente se refiere en plural, como futuros para enfatizar la multiplicidad de posibles futuros. Routinely refers in the plural, as futures to emphasise the multiplicity of possible futures.

Futures wheel La Rueda de Futuros

Un instrumento para la visualización gráfica de consecuencias futuras directas e indirectas de un cambio o desarrollo particular. An instrument for graphical visualization of direct and indirect future consequences of a particular change or development.

Futures workshop

Taller de Futuros

Permite a un grupo de personas desarrollar nuevas ideas o soluciones para problemas sociales. Enables a group of people to develop new ideas or solutions of social problems.

Futurist Futurista Una persona que se embarca en una forma activa en análisis de futuros, o dicho de otro modo: una persona que demuestra una preocupación seria y racional o científica para el futuro. A person who engages in a great deal of futuring or otherwise demonstrates a serious rational or scientific concern for the future.

Futurology Futurología El estudio del futuro, postulando futuros posibles, probables, y preferibles. The study of the future postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures.

Game changer Cambiador del juego

Se refiere a eventos y acciones que cambian el juego. Refers to events and actions that change the game

Gestalt ‘Gestalt’ Una palabra Alemana que significa forma. Es utilizada en inglés para referirse a un concepto de integridad. A German word for form or shape. It is used in English to refer to a concept of “wholeness”.

Heuristic Heurístico Un atajo mental útil, una aproximación, o una “regla de oro” para guiar búsquedas y permitir que la toma de decisiones sean adaptables. A useful mental shortcut, an approximation, or a rule-of-thumb for guiding searches and enabling adaptive decision-making and thinking.

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High Impact/Low probability

Alto Impacto/ Baja Probabilidad

Un análisis para determinar espacios blancos (oportunista) y negros (amenaza), y para buscar soluciones preventivas. An analysis to determine white (opportunistic) and black (threat) spaces and to seek pre-emptive solutions.

Hindsight Retrospección Lo opuesto a la prospectiva. The opposite of foresight.

Horizon scanning

El Escaneo del Horizonte

El proceso inicial y permanente de revisión y análisis de la literatura actual, páginas web, y otros tipos de media para identificar y describir tendencias notables, y sus posibles desarrollos y futuro. The initial and continuing process of reviewing and analysing current literature, web sites, and other media to identify and describe noteworthy trends and their possible development and future.

Image of the future

Imagen del Futuro

Una descripción imaginaria (en cualquier formato o media) de un posible resultado futuro para un determinado ítem o interés. An imaginary description (in any format or media) of a possible future outcome for a given item of interest

Indicator Indicador Un fenómeno que puede rastrearse periódicamente para identificar algún cambio. A phenomenon that can be tracked periodically to spot change.

Industry Industria Actividad económica organizada. Organized economic activity.

Influence diagram

Diagrama de Influencia

Una interpretacióngráfica de factores en un problema o situación, incluyendo flechas y señales (+ o – para indicar la polaridad) para demostrar la relación entre ellos. Similar al “diagrama de bucle causal” pero siguiendo diferentes convenciones. A graphical rendition of factors in a problem or situation, including arrows and signs (+ or – for polarity) to show the relationship between them. Similar to causal loop diagram but follows slightly different conventions.

Innovation Innovación Se refiere tanto a los cambios radicales y aumentos del pensamientode: las cosas, los procesos, o los servicios. Refers to both radical and incremental changes in thinking, in things, in processes, or in services.

Innovation stage

Estadío de la innovación

Rastrea la línea de progreso de la prospectiva, desde la creación de una idea hasta su desarrollo. Tracks the line of progress of an innovation from the creation of an idea to its development.

Input-output model

Modelo entrada/salida

Utiliza una matriz representativa de la economía de una nación (o región), para predecir los efectos de los cambios generados en una industria sobre otros, y por los consumidores, gobierno, y de los proveedores extranjeros sobre la economía. Uses a matrix representation of a nation’s (or a region’s) economy to predict the effect of changes in one industry on others and by consumers, government, and foreign suppliers on the economy

Institutional analysis

El análisis institucional

La parte de las ciencias sociales que estudia el comportamiento y el funcionamiento de las instituciones, (ej.: estructuras y mecanismos del orden social y la cooperación que gobiernan el comportamiento de dos o más individuos). That part of the social sciences which studies how institutions, i.e., structures and mechanisms of social order and cooperation governing the behavior of two or more individuals, behave and function.

Issue Cuestión El problema medular que se está tratando a través de un ejercicio de prospectiva, tal como “el calentamiento global”. No todos los ejercicios de prospectiva se enfocan únicamente sobre un tema. Algunos ejercicios poseen un enfoque territorial y otros un enfoque sectorial. The core problem that is being addressed by a Foresight exercise, such as “global warming”. Not every Foresight exercise primarily focuses on an issue. Some exercises have a territorial focus and others a sectoral focus.

Kondratiev wave

Onda de ”Kondratiev”

Regular ciclos sinusoidales de la economía moderna (capitalista) mundial. Regular, sinusoidal cycles in the modern (capitalist) world economy.

Limiting factor Factor limitante Una necesaria llegada/entrada siendo éste el que limita la actividad del sistema en un momento en particular. A necessary system input that is the one limiting the activity of the system at a particular moment.

Limits to Growth

Los límites del crecimiento

Un libro que diseña las consecuencias de una población mundial que aumenta rápidamente y que posee recursos naturales escasos. A book modelling the consequences of a rapidly growing world population and finite resource supplies.

Literature review

Revisión de la literatura

Un texto cuyo objetivo es revisar los puntos críticos del conocimiento actual sobre un tema en particular. A body of text that aims to review the critical points of current knowledge on a particular topic.

Megatrend Megatendencia Una tendencia diseminada (ej.: en más de un país) de impacto masivo, compuesto de sub-tendencias que a su vez son capaces de generar impactos masivos. A widespread (i.e., more than one country) trend of major impact, composed of sub-trends which in themselves are capable of major impacts.

Metaphor Metáfora El concepto de comprensión de una cosa en términos de otra. The concept of understanding one thing in terms of another.

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Method Método Una serie de medidas codificadas adoptadas para completar una cierta tarea o para alcanzar un determinado objetivo. A codified series of steps taken to complete a certain task or to reach a certain objective.

Methodology Metodología y Un conjunto codificado de métodos de trabajo, prácticas recomendadas, procedimientos y procesos para ser utilizados en una disciplina específica. A veces es acompañado por materiales de capacitación, programas formales de educación, hojas de cálculo, y herramientas esquemáticas. A codified set of working methods, recommended practices, procedures and processes to be used in a specific discipline. It is sometimes accompanied by training materials, formal educational programs, worksheets, and diagramming tools.

Mission Misión Una breve descripción del propósito fundamental de una compañía. La declaración de una misión que responde a la pregunta: “¿por qué existimos?”. Brief description of a company’s fundamental purpose. A mission statement answers the question, “Why do we exist?”

Modeling Modelado Sistema de representación de las relaciones indicativas permitiendo la prueba de la hipótesis. System representation of indicative relationships allowing for hypothesis testing.

Monitoring Monitoreo Observación continua de ciertos aspectos. Continuous (or on-going) observation of certain aspects of something.

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

Análisis Multicriterio de Decisión

Una disciplina cuyo objetivo es apoyar los que toman decisiones cuando deben efectuar evaluaciones numerosas y conflictivas. A discipline aimed at supporting decision makers who are faced with making numerous and conflicting evaluations.

Negative feedback

Realimentación negativa

Una forma de causalidad circular dentro de un bucle causal, donde el impacto del incremento de un elemento en el circuito retroalimenta a través del mismo circuito, de manera que el impacto rastreado, resulta en un decrecimiento de la variable que inició la cadena. A form of circular causality within a causal loop where the impact of an increase of one element in the loop feeds back through the loop such that the traced impact results in a decrease of the variable that began the chain.

Nightmare (scenario)

Pesadilla (escenario)

Una imagen del futuro que articula las mayores preocupaciones y temores de un individuo o grupo, en una declaración negativa de un futuro resultado muy temido. An image of the future which articulates an individual’s or group’s greatest concerns, worries, and fears, in a negative statement of a highly feared future outcome.

No Surprise Future

Futuro sin Sorpresa

Se utiliza para referirse a un futuro en que los patrones del pasado y las relaciones continúan. Used to refer to a future in which past patterns and relationships continue.

Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO)

Organización no gubernamental (ONG)

Cualquier organización que es independiente del gobierno. Sin embargo, el término está generalmente restringido a asociaciones sociales y culturales sin ánimo de lucro, y en particular, a grupos sociales, culturales o medios ambientales de “defensa”. Any organisation which is independent from government. However, the term is generally restricted to social and cultural not-for-profit associations, and in particular, social, cultural or environmental advocacy groups.

Non-linear relationship

Relación no lineal

Una relación entre dos elementos en un sistema donde la causa no produce un efecto proporcional. A relationship between two elements in a system where the cause does not produce a proportional (straight-line) effect.

Normative Normativo Genéricamente, significa en relación a un promedio o modelo ideal. En la práctica, posea fuertes connotaciones de relacionarse a un promedio o modelo típico. Generically, it means relating to an ideal standard or model. In practice, it has strong connotations of relating to a typical standard or model.

Normative futures

Los futuros normativos

Se refiere a al futuro de la investigación que involucre la consideración del atractivo de un resultado, y normalmente involucra la planificación y la acción/conducta proactiva para lograr resultados más deseables. Refers to futures research which involves consideration of the desirability of the outcome and typically involves planning and proactive action to achieve more desirable outcomes.

Outside-in thinking

Pensamiento de fuera a dentro

La técnica que amplía el pensamiento a través del análisis de un tema desde la perspectiva externa. Technique that broadens thinking by looking at an issue from an external perspective.

Paradigm shift Cambio de paradigma

Un patrón o modelo de cambio. A pattern or model change.

Participatory Participativo Una actividad que involucre a participantes provenientes de al menos dos diferentes grupos interesados. Difunde sus resultados preliminares y busca la retroalimentación de un público de mayor amplitud. Participatory activity involves participants from at least two different stakeholder groups, disseminates their preliminary results and seeks feedback from wider audience.

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Path dependence

Trayectoria Significa simplemente “la historia importa” – un concepto amplio- mientras que otros lo utilizan para significar que las instituciones son “auto-reafirmación”– que es una escasa concepción.

Means simply “history matters” – a broad conception – while others use it to mean that institutions are self-reinforcing – a narrow conception.

Pattern Patrón Un tema sobre eventos que re-ocurren u objetos que algunas veces se refieren a elementos de una serie. Estos elementos se repiten de una manera predecible. A theme of reoccurring events or objects sometimes referred to as elements of a set. These elements repeat in a predictable manner.

Picture of the future

Imagén del futuro

Una imagen mental o visión del mañana o del más allá. A mental image or vision of tomorrow and beyond.

Plan(ning) Plan (planificación)

Un esquema detallado o método. A detailed scheme or a method.

Positive feedback

La retroalimentación positiva

Una forma de causalidad circular dentro de un circuito causal donde el impacto del incremento de un elemento en el circuito, retroalimenta a través del circuito, de tal manera que el impacto rastreado resulta en un incremento de la variable que inició la cadena. A form of circular causality within a causal loop where the impact of an increase of one element in the loop feeds back through the loop such that the traced impact results in an increase of the variable that began the chain.

Possible Posible Un futuro que puede ser alcanzado. A future capable of being achieved.

Potential Potencial Posible pero aún no futuro actual. Possible but not yet actual future.

Precursor events

Eventos Precursores

Un evento necesario para que otro evento ocurra. An event necessary for another event to occur.

Prediction Predicción Una declaración especifica de algo que va a acontecer en el futuro. A specific statement that something will happen in the future

Preferable Preferible Un futuro preferido o más deseable. Preferred or more desirable future.

Primary/ secondary/ tertiary effects

Los efectos primarios / secundario / terciario

El orden de la magnitud del efecto dominó sobre un sistema. Order of magnitude ripple effects on a system.

Private sector Sector privado Organizaciones que no pertenecen al gobierno. Organisations not owned by the government (primarily firms).

Probability Probabilidad La probabilidad o posibilidad de que algo va a suceder. The likelihood or chance that something is the case or will happen.

Probable Probable Probable que sea, o pase en el futuro, pero no necesariamente. Likely to be or to happen in the future but not necessarily so.

Probable futures

Futuros Probables

Tiende a estar asociado con el concepto “del futuro más probable”. Tends to be associated with the concept of “the most probable future”.

Prognosis Pronóstico Termino que denota una predicción sobre cómo un problema progresará, y si hay una oportunidad de recuperación. Term denoting a prediction of how a problem will progress, and whether there is chance of recovery.

Projection Projección Un pronóstico desarrollado asumiendo que la tendencia continuará en el futuro. A forecast developed by assuming that a trend will continue into the future.

Pros-cons Pros-cons Una técnica para la evaluación de las ideas sobre la implementación de políticas. Technique for evaluating policy ideas.

Public sector Sector Público El sector público consiste de organismos pertenecientes al gobierno, ya sean nacionales, regionales o locales. The public sector consists of bodies belonging to the government, whether national, regional or local.

Qualitative Cualitativo La investigación cualitativa, con un alto grado de subjetividad. Qualitative research, featuring a high degree of subjectivity

Quantitative Cuantitativo Como un atributo que existe en una gama de magnitudes, y puede ser medida. An attribute that exists in a range of magnitudes, and can therefore be measured.

Quantitative scenarios

Escenarios cuantitativos

Permite a los usuarios dar aportes alternativos sobre supuestos para generar resultados alternativos. Allows users to input alternative assumptions to generate alternative results.

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R&D I+D Investigación y desarrollo. Research and development.

Reflexivity Reflexividad Un acto de auto-referencia en que el examen o la acción “se dobla en sí mismo”, se refierea y afecta a la entidad instigadora de la acción o del examen. An act of self-reference where examination or action “bends back on,” refers to, and affects the entity instigating the action or examination.

Reframing Replanteando Considera una situación o problema de una forma diferente, o desde un punto de vista diferente, a menudo utilizando perspectivas múltiples. Considers a situation or problem in a different way, or from a different point of view, often using multiple perspectives.

Regional foresight

La Prospectiva Regional

La prospectiva con un enfoque territorial donde el territorio considerado es una región geográfica sub-nacional dentro de uno o más países. Por lo tanto, tiene por objeto informar y orientar decisiones que se toman a un nivel sub-nacional. Un factor importante de su éxito es tomar en cuenta la identidad local y la influencia política. Foresight with a territorial focus where the territory considered is a sub-national geographical region within one or more countries. It therefore aims to inform and orient decisions that are taken at this sub-national level. An important factor in its success is to take into account the local identity and the political leverage.

Reinforcing feedback loop

Refuerzo de bucle de retroalimentación

Un ”bucle de retroalimentación de amplificación o mejora”, también conocido como un "bucle de retroalimentación positiva" porque refuerza la dirección del cambio, que son círculos viciosos y virtuosos. An amplifying or enhancing feedback loop, also known as a “positive feedback loop” because it reinforces the direction of change; these are vicious cycles and virtuous circles.

Resilience Resiliencia La habilidad de un sistema para recuperarse de una perturbación; la habilidad de restaurar o reparar después de un cambio debido a una fuerza externa. The ability of a system to recover from perturbation; the ability to restore or repair or bounce back after a change due to an outside force.

Risk Riesgo Problemas que pueden surgir, o que ya existen pero son difíciles de cuantificar y puede tener un impacto potencial alto. Problemas marcados por un alto grado de incertidumbre; incluso información básica, lo que ayudaría a evaluar de forma adecuada la frecuencia y gravedad de un determinado riesgo, a menudo careciente. Tales riesgos pueden ocurrir como resultado de cambios económicos, tecnológicos, sociales y de algún sector específico, etc. Issues which may develop, or which already exist that are difficult to quantify and may have a high potential impact. Issues marked by a high degree of uncertainty; even basic information, which would help adequately assess the frequency and severity of a given risk, is often lacking. Such risks can occur as a result of economic, technology, sector specific, social changes, etc.

Role playing Juego de roles Representando un escenario futuro. Acting out a future scenario.

Scenario Escenario Un secuencia prevista de eventos que posiblemente podría ocurrir en el futuro. A predicted sequence of events that might possibly occur in the future.

Scenario planning

La planificación de escenarios

Un método de planificación estratégica que algunas organizaciones utilizan para hacer flexible planes a largo plazo. A strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans.

Sectoral foresight

La Prospectiva Sectorial

Un ejercicio con un enfoque sectorial, con una mirada al desarrollo de futuros programas de una industria específica, tal como la “industria química” o el “sector aeroespacial”. An exercise with a sectoral focus looks at future developments within a specific industry, such as the “chemical industry” or the “aerospace sector”.

Self-fulfilling prophecy

Profecía autocumplida

Una predicción que directa o indirectamente por sí misma se convierte en realidad. A prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true.

Sigmoid curve (S-curve)

Curva sigmoidea o sinusoidal

Una curva en que la tasa de crecimiento se acelera a un máximo y luego disminuye A curve where the rate of growth accelerates to a maximum and then slows.

Simulation Simulación Imitación de algo real, estado de negocios, o proceso (sin que éste sea un estado real de verdad). Imitation of some real thing, state of affairs, or process.

Single-loop learning

Aprendizaje de bucle sencillo

Describe el comportamiento de control donde existe una brecha entre las condiciones deseadas y los resultados reales en acción, pero sin ningún tipo de examen o reconsideración de los modelos mentales subyacentes a la acción. Describes control behaviour wherein the gap between the desired condition and actual results in action but without any examination or reconsidering of the mental models underlying the action.

Social change Cambio Social Examina el cambio desde la perspectiva de las necesidades individuales Examines change from the perspective of individual needs.

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Stakeholder Grupos de interés

Cualquier agente con un interés en lo que realiza o desempeña una organización. En el caso de un ejercicio de prospectiva, esto incluye todos los participantes del ejercicio y cualquiera que pueda tener algún interés en dicha temática desarrollada en el ejercicio de prospectiva, o le afecte el resultado. Anybody with an interest or stake in what an organisation does. In the case of a Foresight exercise, this includes all the participants in the exercise and anyone else who may have an interest in, or be affected by, the outcome.

Stakeholder analysis

Análisis de los interesados

Conectando los puntos y clasificando la influencia y poder de los interesados uno sobre el otro. Connecting the dots and ranking the influence and power of stakeholders over each other.

Statistical methods

Los métodos estadísticos

Investigando la causalidad y en particular llegar a una conclusión sobre el efecto de los cambios de los valores de los pronosticadores o variables independientes sobre las variables dependientes o respuestas. Investigate causality and in particular to draw a conclusion on the effect of changes in the values of predictors or independent variables on dependent variables or response.

Strategic foresight

La prospectiva estratégica

La planificación de los resultados cuando el pensamiento del futuro se aplica al existente, a situaciones del mundo real. The planning that results when future thinking is applied to existing, real-world situations.

Surprise Sorpresa Una brecha que de repente surge entre las percepciones y expectativas de una de las personas acerca de una situación. A gap that suddenly arises between peoples’ perceptions and expectations of a situation.

Sustainability Sostenibilidad Una característica de un proceso o estado que puede ser mantenida a un cierto nivel indefinidamente. El término, en su uso ambiental, se refiere a al suporte de la longevidad potencial de los sistemas ecológicos vitales humanos, tal como el sistema climático terrestre, el sistema de agricultura, industria, la pesca, y los sistemas de los cuales dependen. A characteristic of a process or state that can be maintained at a certain level indefinitely. The term, in its environmental usage, refers to the potential longevity of vital human ecological support systems, such as the planet’s climatic system, systems of agriculture, industry, forestry, fisheries, and the systems on which they depend.

SWOT analysis El análisis DAFO El acrónimo y técnica para evaluar las fortalezas, debilidades, oportunidades y amenazas. Acronym and technique to evaluate (s)trengths, (w)eaknesses, (o)pportunities and (t)hreats.

Synchronicity Sincronicidad La experiencia de dos o más eventos que ocurren de una manera significativa, pero que no están causalmente relacionadas. Con el fin de ser “sincronístico” los eventos deben tener relación el uno con el otro temporalmente, y la oportunidad que se producirá en conjunto por el azar debe ser muy pequeña. The experience of two or more events which occur in a meaningful manner, but which are causally un-related. In order to be “synchronistic,” the events must be related to one another temporally, and the chance that they would occur together by random chance must be very small.

Synergy Sinérgiay El comportamiento de sistemas enteros impredecibles por el comportamiento de sus partes. The behaviour of whole systems unpredicted by the behaviour of their parts.

System Sistema Un conjunto de elementos o partes que coherentemente organizados y correlacionados en un patrón o estructura producen un conjunto de conductas características, usualmente clasificadas como su función o propósito. A set of elements or parts that is coherently organized and inter-connected in a pattern or structure that produces a characteristic set of behaviors, often classified as its “function” or “purpose”.

Systems thinking

El pensamiento sistémico

Un marco que está basado en la creencia de considerar que las partes de los componentes de un sistema actuarán de forma diferente, cuando las relaciones del sistema sean eliminadas y sean vistas de forma aislada. A framework that is based on the belief that the component parts of a system will act differently when the system’s relationships are removed and it is viewed in isolation.

Taxonomy Taxonomía Combinación estructurada y semántica de las cosas que utilizan sistemas de clasificación basadas en normas. Structured, semantic arrangement of things using deterministic, rule-based classification systems.

Technology assessment

Evaluación de la tecnología

Método sistemático para explorar tecnologías futuras y para la evaluación de sus potenciales efectos sociales. Systematic method for exploring future technology developments and assessing their potential societal effects

Technology forecasting

La previsión de la tecnología

Características potenciales de la tecnología, tales como los niveles de rendimiento técnico. Potential characteristics of technology, such as levels of technical performance.

Technology road-mapping

Hojas de ruta tecnológica

Referida a la planificación y colocación de productos con la ayuda de recursos científicos y tecnológicos. Road-mapping aids planning and placing products with the use of scientific and technological resources.

Time-frame Marco de tiempo

El periodo de tiempo que uno asume con los propósitos de tomar decisiones y planificar. The period of time that one is assuming for the purposes of decision making and planning.

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Timeline Línea de tiempo

El orden cronológico de eventos en secuencia. Chronological ordering of a sequence of events.

Top-down approach

Enfoque de arriba abajo

El proceso en que una visión general del sistema se formula, sin entrar en detalles para ninguna de sus partes. Cada parte del sistema se refina a través del diseño más detallado. Process in which an overview of the system is formulated, without going into detail for any part of it. Each part of the system is then refined by designing it in more detail.

Trend Tendencia Tendencia general o dirección, evidente de sucesos pasados, aumentando o disminuyendo en intensidad de frecuencia de observación, usualmente sugiere un patrón. General tendency or direction evident from past events increasing or decreasing in strength of frequency of observation; usually suggests a pattern.

Triple-loop learning

Triple circuito de aprendizaje

Describe tres circuitos individuales de aprendizaje, cada uno implica un diferente centro de aprendizaje. Los tres centros se refieren a las tres preguntas “¿Estamos haciendo las cosas correctamente, estamos haciendo las cosas correctas y es la rectitud respaldada por poderío y / o poderío apoyada por la rectitud? Describes three single-loops of learning, each involving a different center of learning. The three centers relate to the three questions “Are we doing the things right, and are we doing the right things, and is rightness buttressed by mightiness and/or mightiness buttressed by rightness”.

Turbulence Turbulencia Se refiere a la variación en la naturaleza y frecuencia de los eventos, disturbios y desarrollos que impactan sobre un sistema. Los eventos y disturbios de envergadura pueden surgir en el área de estudio o en el ambiente externo e incluye tales cosas como temporales. Refers to the variation in the nature and frequency of events, disturbances, and developments that impact upon a system. The events and disturbances of concern may arise within the area of study or in the external environment and includes such things as seasonal.

Uncertainty Incertidumbre El estado de poseer un conocimiento limitado donde es imposible de describir la existencia de un estado o resultado futuro, o más de un posible resultado. State of having limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe an existing state or future outcome, or more than one possible outcome.

Utopia Utopía Cualquier sociedad real o imaginaria con características deseables. Any real or imaginary society with many desirable features.

Value Valor Una creencia básica de lo que es bueno y verdadero, los valores pueden ser vistos como cualidades deseables. A basic belief in what is good and true, values can be seen as desirable qualities.

Weak signal Señal débil Las fuentes de cambio; la idea original o invención;; los valores sociales atípicos expresando un nuevo valor. The sources of change – the first case; the original idea or invention; the watershed event; the social outliers expressing a new value.

Wild card Comodín Una situación o evento impredecible. Eventos que tienen una baja probabilidad pero un gran impacto. A menudo reconocidos y conocidos, pero descontados, incluso cuando el evento es relativamente cierto durante un periodo de años. An unpredictable event or situation. Events that have a low probability but a high impact. Often recognized and known, but discounted, even when the event is relatively certain over a period of years.

Vision Visión Una representación imaginada o un esquema compartido del (usualmente anhelado) futuro. An imagined representation or a shared picture of the (usually desired) future.

Visioning Visión Una imagen mental vívida o producida por la imaginación. A vivid mental image produced by the imagination,

Visualise Visualizar Formar una imagen mental. To form a mental image.

Worldview Visión del Mundo

El marco de las ideas y creencias a través del cual un individuo interpreta al mundo e interactúa con él. Como uno ve al mundo y le da significado a lo que observa; también influye en lo que se ignora o no se ve cuando monitorea el entorno. The framework of ideas and beliefs through which an individual interprets the world and interacts with it. How one sees the world and makes meaning of what is seen; also influences what one ignores or doesn’t see when scanning.