learning event no. 6, session 1: ringler. ardd2012 rio

How to Achieve Food Security in a World of Growing Scarcity: Role of Technology Development Strategies

Claudia RinglerIFPRI

ARDD, June 18, 2012

Role of technology in achieving sustainable intensification?

Agricultural Technologies

Potential to improve: Agricultural production &

consumption Food security Trade Environmental quality Stalled by: Polarized debate on high

intensity vs. low input Lack of understanding of

the impacts of specific technologies at a disaggregated level

Technology Assessment Scope

Global & Regional Nine Technologies Three Crops

• Wheat• Rice• Maize

• Zero Tillage• Integrated Soil Fertility

Management• Irrigation Technologies• Water Harvesting• Drought Tolerance• Heat tolerance• Nitrogen Use Efficiency• Precision Agriculture• Laser Land Leveling• Organic Agriculture

Yield gap report + database Technology reports

Yield gaps andfactors causing them

Survey results

How technologies impact yield gaps

DSSAT Crop modeling

Impacts of technologies on yields/yield gaps

IMPACT modeling

Impacts of technology scenarios on food security, trade, etc.

Policy environmentreport

How policies affect technology adoption

Recommendations

DSSAT – Crop Modeling System

Management Scenarios

Baseline • Site-specific baseline inorganic fertilizer application rate • For maize, location-specific yield discount factor due to

unmanaged pest damage where Bt maize is not adopted

• Furrow irrigation, where irrigation is adopted• Sub-optimal planting density & sub-optimal planting

window• Conventional tillage• Representative varieties for latitude x altitude zones

Technology scenarios• Specific representation of each technology• Area of adoption in 2050 depends on technology

Climate change scenario in 2050• MIROC A1B (without CO2 fertilization)

Region

DTHT

DT + HT

ISFMNUENo-till

PAWH

WH+ISFM

Caribbean Central America

Central Africa

Central Asia

East Asia

Eastern Africa

Eastern Europe

Middle East

North America

Northern Africa

Northern Europe

Oceania

South America

South Asia

Southeast Asia

Southern Africa

Southern Europe

Western Africa

Western Europe

-245.1 110.6

Yield Impact (%)

Region

HT

ISFMDripLLL

Sprinkler

NUENo-till

PA


Central Asia

East Asia

Eastern Africa

Eastern Europe

Middle East

North America

Northern Africa

Northern Europe

Oceania

South America

South Asia

Southeast Asia

Southern Africa

Southern Europe

Western Africa

Western Europe

-178.0 160.0

Yield Impact (%)

Crop Model Results: Maize

Rainfed Maize Irrigated Maize

Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012

Crop Model Results: Rice

Region

DTHT

DT + HT

ISFMNUENo-till

PAWH

WH+ISFM


Central Africa

East Asia

Eastern Africa

Middle East

North America

Northern Africa

Oceania

South America

South Asia

Southeast Asia

Southern Africa

Southern Europe

Western Africa

-33.3 78.7

Yield Impact (%)

Region

HT

ISFMLLL

Sprinkler

NUENo-till

PA


Central Africa

Central Asia

East Asia

Eastern Africa

Middle East

North America

Northern Africa

Oceania

South America

South Asia

Southeast Asia

Southern Europe

Western Africa

-4.1 103.0

Yield Impact (%)


Irrigated RiceRainfed Rice

Crop Model Results: Wheat

Region

DTHT

DT + HT

ISFMNUENo-till

PAWH

WH+ISFM


Central Africa

Central Asia

East Asia

Eastern Africa

Eastern Europe

Middle East

North America

Northern Africa

Northern Europe

Oceania

South America

South Asia

Southeast Asia

Southern Africa

Southern Europe

Western Africa

Western Europe

-24.4 170.4

Yield Impact (%)

Region

HT

ISFMLLL

Sprinkler

NUENo-till

PA


Central Africa

Central Asia

East Asia

Eastern Africa

Eastern Europe

Middle East

North America

Northern Africa

Northern Europe

Oceania

South America

South Asia

Southeast Asia

Southern Africa

Southern Europe

Western Africa

Western Europe

-21.8 40.9

Yield Impact (%)

Rainfed Wheat Irrigated Wheat


IMPROVED IRRIGATION TECHNOLOGIES Irrigation was triggered

whenever crop needed water (automatic).

Improved irrigation technologies effectively saved water.

Change in irrigation water use by region


Linking DSSAT & IMPACT

DSSAT

Technology strategy (combination of

different practices)

Corresponding geographically differentiated yield effects

IMPACT

Food demand and supplyEffects on Global prices and tradeFood security and malnutrition

Percent Change in World Prices of Maize between 2010 and 2050

Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012

Percent Change in World Prices of Rice between 2000 and 2050


Percent Change in World Prices of Wheat between 2010 and 2050


0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%Percent change from 2010 to 2050

Reference (MIROC A1b)

Drought Tolerance

Heat Tolerance

Integrated SFM

No Till

N Use Efficiency

Precision Ag


Percent Change in kilocalorie availability per cap per day between 2010 and 2050

-5.0%

-4.5%

-4.0%

-3.5%

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%Percent difference from reference in 2050

Drought Tolerance

Heat Tolerance

Integrated SFM

No Till

N Use Efficiency

Precision Ag

Percent Change in the Number of Malnourished Children 2050, compared to reference run


Conclusions

Agricultural technology investments—including both “advanced” and “traditional” technologies/management practices are a game changer in terms of yield improvements and national and global food security

Alternative technologies increase water productivity, nutrient use efficiency, energy efficiency, and YIELD (but not everywhere). Overall gains for both people and the environment are large

Conclusions

Suitable technologies will only “work” if farmers have the capacity (and freedom) to adopt; requires conducive institutions, regulatory framework, political will and rural infrastructure

Implementation will also require increased partnerships between the public and private sectors and civil society