learning elt future (1)

The Future of English?

This book is about the English language in

the 21st century: about who will speak it

and for what purposes. It is a practical

brieng document, written for

educationists, politicians, managers

indeed any decision maker or planning

team with a professional interest in the

development of English worldwide.

The Future of English? takes stock of the

present, apparently unassailable, position of

English in the world and asks whether we

can expect its status to remain unchanged

during the coming decades of

unprecedented social and economic global

change. The book explores the possible

long-term impact on English of

developments in communications

technology, growing economic

globalisation and major demographic shifts.

The Future of English? examines the

complex mix of material and cultural

trends which will shape the global destiny

of the English language and concludes that

the future is more complex and less

predictable than has usually been assumed.

The book has been commissioned by the

British Council to complement the many

texts already available about the teaching

and learning of English, the history and

development of English and the diversity

of forms of English worldwide. It is

intended to stimulate constructive debate

about the future status of English which

can inform policy developments both in

the British Council and other organisations

concerned with the promotion of English

language teaching and learning.

The book is divided into ve main

sections, each followed by a summary of

main points and references. The rst

section explains how English came to

reach its present position in the world.

Section two examines techniques of

forecasting, identies the patterns which

underlie typical linguistic change and

describes the way large corporations have

used scenario planning as a strategy for

coping with unpredictable futures. Section

three outlines signicant global trends

which will shape the social and economic

world in the 21st century. Section four

discusses the impacts these trends are

already having on language and

communication in everyday life.

The last section summarises implications

for the English language and outlines ways

in which we might reach a better

understanding of the status which English

will hold in the 21st century world. This

concluding section also argues for a

reassessment of the role played by British

providers of ELT goods and services in

promoting a global brand image for

Britain.

A guide to forecasting the popularity of theEnglish language in the 21st century

David Graddol

What is this book about?

First published 1997 The British Council 1997, 2000

All Rights Reserved

This digital edition created by The English Company (UK) Ltd

David Graddol hereby asserts and gives notice of his right under section 77 of the UK Copyright,Designs and Patents Act 1988 to be identified as the author ofthis work.

Why worry now?Why worry now about the global future of the Englishlanguage? Is it not the first language of capitalism in aworld in which socialism and communism have largelydisappeared? Is it not the main language of internationalcommerce and trade in a world where these sectors seemincreasingly to drive the cultural and political? Has it notmore cultural resources, in the sense of works of litera-ture, films and television programmes, than any otherlanguage? Is it not, as The Economist has described it,impregnably established as the world standardlanguage: an intrinsic part of the global communicationsrevolution? (The Economist, 21 December 1996, p. 39)Isnt it obvious, in other words, that the Englishlanguage will continue to grow in popularity and influ-ence, without the need for special study or strategicmanagement?

The simple answer to all these questions is probablyyes. There is no imminent danger to the Englishlanguage, nor to its global popularity a fact which isrecognised by the majority of people who are professio-nally concerned with the English language worldwide(Figure 1). The press release for the launch of the BritishCouncils English 2000 project in 1995 summarised theposition of English:

World-wide, there are over 1,400 million people living incountries where English has official status. One out of five ofthe worlds population speak English to some level ofcompetence. Demand from the other four fifths is increa-sing. ... By the year 2000 it is estimated that over one billionpeople will be learning English. English is the mainlanguage of books, newspapers, airports and air-traffic cont-rol, international business and academic conferences,science technology, diplomacy, sport, international competi-tions, pop music and advertising.

Fin de sicleThe position of English as a world language may seem tobe so entrenched and secure that agonising over wherewe are and where we are going might be regarded asno more than a fin de sicle indulgence. The end of the19th century was characterised by much heart searchingover the state of society evident in social behaviour andexperimentation, fiction, scientific writing and legislativereform prompted by a concern at the social consequ-ences of the industrial revolution. How much greatermight be the mood of self-reflection at the end of amillennium, when the communications revolution andeconomic globalisation seem to be destroying the reassu-ring geographical and linguistic basis of sovereignty andnational identity. How many titles of social and econo-mics books include the word end or the prefix post:The end of history, the post-industrial societies,post-modernism, post-capitalism, post-feminism.There is a general awareness of change, but no clearvision of where it may all be leading. It seems we are notyet living in a new era, but have fallen off the edge of anold one.

But there are reasons why we ought to take stock andreassess the place of English in the world. The future ofthe English language may not be straightforward: celeb-ratory statistics should be treated with caution.

This book examines some facts, trends and ideaswhich may be uncomfortable to many native speakers.For example, the economic dominance of OECD count-ries which has helped circulate English in the newmarket economies of the world is being eroded asAsian economies grow and become the source, ratherthan the recipient, of cultural and economic flows.Population statistics suggest that the populations of therich countries are ageing and that in the coming decadesyoung adults with disposable income will be found inAsia and Latin America rather than in the US andEurope. Educational trends in many countries suggestthat languages other than English are already providingsignificant competition in school curricula.

The Future of English? identifies such significant globaltrends in economics, technology and culture whichmay affect the learning and use of English internatio-nally in the 21st century. We suggest that the close of the20th century is a time of global transition and that a newworld order is emerging. The period of most rapidchange is likely to last about 20 years and can be expec-ted to be an uncomfortable and at times traumaticexperience for many of the worlds citizens. During thisperiod, the conditions will be established for more settledglobal relations which may stabilise about 2050. Hencethe next 20 years or so will be a critical time for theEnglish language and for those who depend upon it. Thepatterns of usage and public attitudes to English whichdevelop during this period will have long-term implicat-ions for its future in the world.

In this book we argue that the global popularity ofEnglish is in no immediate danger, but that it would befoolhardy to imagine that its pre-eminent position as aworld language will not be challenged in some worldregions and domains of use as the economic, demograp-hic and political shape of the world is transformed.

A language in transitionAs the world is in transition, so the English language isitself taking new forms. This, of course, has always beentrue: English has changed substantially in the 1500 yearsor so of its use, reflecting patterns of contact with otherlanguages and the changing communication needs ofpeople. But in many parts of the world, as English istaken into the fabric of social life, it acquires a momen-tum and vitality of its own, developing in ways whichreflect local culture and languages, while diverging incre-asingly from the kind of English spoken in Britain orNorth America.

English is also used for more purposes than everbefore. Everywhere it is at the leading edge of technolo-gical and scientific development, new thinking ineconomics and management, new literatures and enter-tainment genres. These give rise to new vocabularies,grammatical forms and ways of speaking and writing.Nowhere is the effect of this expansion of English intonew domains seen more clearly than in communicationon the Internet and the development of net English.

But the language is, in another way, at a criticalmoment in its global career: within a decade or so, thenumber of people who speak English as a secondlanguage will exceed the number of native speakers. The

Overview

2 The Future of English?

English is widely regarded as having become the global language but will itretain its pre-eminence in the 21st century? The world in which it is used is inthe early stages of major social, economic and demographic transition.Although English is unlikely to be displaced as the worlds most importantlanguage, the future is more complex and less certain than some assume.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Agre

e

No vi

ew

Disag

ree

Figure 1 Will English remainthe worlds language?

Composite responses to theBritish Councils English

2000 Global ConsultationQuestionnaire

A world in transition

WWWENGLISH 2000http://www.britcoun.org/english/enge2000.htm

ENGLISH CO UK LTDhttp://www.english.co.uk/

implications of this are likely to be far reaching: thecentre of authority regarding the language will shift fromnative speakers as they become minority stakeholders inthe global resource. Their literature and television mayno longer provide the focal point of a global Englishlanguage culture, their teachers no longer form theunchallenged authoritative models for learners.

Contradictory trendsMany of the trends that are documented here are notsimply driving forces whose impact and consequencescan be easily predicted. And in so far as they are under-stood they appear to be leading in contradictory direc-tions tendencies to increasing use of English arecounterposed by others which lead to a reducingenthusiasm for the language. On the one hand, the useof English as a global lingua franca requires intelligibilityand the setting and maintenance of standards. On theother hand, the increasing adoption of English as asecond language, where it takes on local forms, is leadingto fragmentation and diversity. No longer is it the case, ifit ever was, that English unifies all who speak it.

These competing trends will give rise to a less predi-ctable context within which the English language will belearned and used. There is, therefore, no way of preci-sely predicting the future of English since its spread andcontinued vitality is driven by such contradictory forces.As David Crystal has commented:

There has never been a language so widely spread or spokenby so many people as English. There are therefore no prece-dents to help us see what happens to a language when itachieves genuine world status. (Crystal, 1997, p. 139)

The likelihood, as this book demonstrates, is that thefuture for English will be a complex and plural one. Thelanguage will grow in usage and variety, yet simulta-neously diminish in relative global importance. We mayfind the hegemony of English replaced by an oligarchyof languages, including Spanish and Chinese. To put itin economic terms, the size of the global market for theEnglish language may increase in absolute terms, but itsmarket share will probably fall.

A new world eraAccording to many economists, cultural theorists andpolitical scientists, the new world order expected toappear in the 21st century will represent a significantdiscontinuity with previous centuries. The Internet andrelated information technologies, for example, mayupset the traditional patterns of communication uponwhich institutional and national cultures have been built.We have entered a period in which language andcommunication will play a more central role than everbefore in economic, political and cultural life just at themoment in history that a global language has emerged.

There are signs already of an associated shift of socialvalues which may have a significant impact on the futuredecision-making of organisations, governments andconsumers. Some commentators predict that, just asenvironmental issues were once regarded as less impor-tant than the need for profit, so issues of social equity willform a third bottom line in the global business environ-ment. This suggests that those who promote the globaluse of English will be burdened with new social responsi-bilities and may have to engage with a more complexpublic agenda, including ethical issues relating to lingu-istic human rights.

The Future of English? thus explores a range of topics witha common theme: the changing world which affects ouruse of language. Its primary purpose is to stimulateinformed debate about the global future of English andthe implications both for British providers of Englishlanguage services and the institutions and enterpriseswith which they work overseas. For this reason, the bookaims to provide thought-provoking ideas rather than firmpredictions. It points to areas of uncertainty and doubt where an understanding of local issues will be as valuableas that of global trends. Many of the issues the bookaddresses will be of interest to a wide range of people,both specialists and professionals, but also members ofthe general public. These issues raise such questions as:

l How many people will speak English in the year2050?

l What role will English play in their lives? Will theyenjoy the rich cultural resources the English languageoffers or will they simply use English as a vehicularlanguage like a tool of their trade?

l What effects will economic globalisation have on thedemand for English?

l Will the emergence of world regions encouragelingua francas which challenge the position ofEnglish?

l How does English help the economic modernisationof newly industrialised countries?

l Is the Internet the electronic flagship of globalEnglish?

l Will the growth of global satellite TV, such as CNNand MTV, teach the worlds youth US English?

l Will the spread of English lead to over half of theworlds languages becoming extinct?

l Is it true that the English language will prove to be avital resource and benefit to Britain in the comingcentury, giving it a key economic advantage overEuropean competitors?

Commentators vary greatly in attitudes towards, andexpectations of, global English. At one extreme, there isan unproblematic assumption that the world will eventu-ally speak English and that this will facilitate the culturaland economic dominance of native-speaking countries(especially the US). Such a view is challenged, however,by the growing assertiveness of countries adoptingEnglish as a second language that English is now theirlanguage, through which they can express their ownvalues and identities, create their own intellectual propertyand export goods and services to other countries.

The spread of English in recent years is, by anycriterion, a remarkable phenomenon. But the closer oneexamines the historical causes and current trends, themore it becomes apparent that the future of English willbe more complex, more demanding of understandingand more challenging for the position of native-speakingcountries than has hitherto been supposed.

This book is neither triumphalist nor alarmist, butseeks to chart some of the territory, to stimulate a moreinformed debate which can, in turn, help all those con-cerned with the future of English prepare for thesignificant changes the 21st century will bring.

The Future of English? 3

The future of English will be more complex, moredemanding of understanding and more

challenging for the position of native-speakingcountries than has hitherto been supposed.

What have been theheroic failures of the pastin predicting the number

of English speakers?p. 18

Jurassic Park grossed $6min India in 1994. But in

what language?p. 47

385 million people willbe employed in world

tourist services by 2006.Will they all need

English?p. 36

How many people willspeak English in 2050?

p. 27

Questioning the future

Book highlights


Crystal, D. (1997) English as a Global Language. Cambridge: Cambridge UniversityPress.

The Economist (1996) Language and Electronics: the coming global tongue. 21December, pp. 379.

Further readingThere are many books now available which examine the social and linguisticcontexts in which English developed historically. The Future of English? hasbeen written to complement the following books in particular:


Graddol, D., Leith, D. and Swann, J. (1996) (eds) English: history, diversity andchange. London: Routledge/Open University.

Maybin, J. and Mercer, N. (1996) (eds) Using English: from conversation to canon.London: Routledge/Open University.

Mercer, N. and Swann, J. (1996) (eds) Learning English: development and diversity.London: Routledge/Open University.

Goodman, S. and Graddol, D. (1996) (eds) Redesigning English: new texts, newidentities. London: Routledge/Open University.

SourcesA composite list of sources for the tables and figures in this book can be found

on the inside back cover.

NoteAll references to $ in this text are to US$. 1 billion = 1,000 million; 1 trillion =

1,000,000 million

1 English and the international economyThe shifting patterns of trade and new working practices (suchas the growing prevalence of screen-based labour) whichfollow globalisation are affecting the use of the Englishlanguage in complex ways. At present there is a considerableincrease in the numbers of people learning and using English,but a closer examination of driving forces suggests that thelong-term growth of the learning of English is less secure thanmight at first appear.

2 English and global cultureAs the number of people using English grows, so second-language speakers are drawn towards the inner circle offirst-language speakers and foreign-language speakers to theouter circle of second-language speakers. During this statusmigration, attitudes and needs in respect of the language willchange; the English language will diversify and other countrieswill emerge to compete with the older, native-speakingcountries in both the English language-teaching industry andin the global market for cultural resources and intellectualproperty in English.

3 English as a leading-edge phenomenonEnglish is closely associated with the leading edge of globalscientific, technological, economic and cultural developments,where it has been unrivalled in its influence in the late 20thcentury. But we cannot simply extrapolate from the last fewdecades and assume this trend will continue unchanged. Infour key sectors, the present dominance of English can beexpected to give way to a wider mix of languages: first, theglobal audio-visual market and especially satellite TV; second,the Internet and computer-based communication includinglanguage-related and document handling software; third,technology transfer and associated processes in economicglobalisation; fourth, foreign-language learning especially indeveloping countries where growing regional trade may makeother languages of increasing economic importance.

4 A bilingual futureThere is a growing belief amongst language professionals thatthe future will be a bilingual one, in which an increasingproportion of the worlds population will be fluent speakers ofmore than one language. For the last few hundred yearsEnglish has been dominated by monolingual speakersinterests: there is little to help us understand what will happento English when the majority of the people and institutionswho use it do so as a second language.

5 Social value shiftsThe spread of English has been made more rapid in recentyears as a consequence of decisions and actions taken bygovernments, institutions and individuals. This process hasbeen guided by a logic of economic rationalism. However,significant social value shifts may occur in public opinion,making social equity as important a factor in public policy aseconomic issues, and quality of life as important as income inpersonal life choices. Such value shifts would foreground thecomplex ethical issues associated with the world dominance ofa single language and cause a reassessment of the impact ofEnglish on other cultures, national identities and educationalopportunities for the worlds non-English speaking citizens.The economic argument for English may also be challenged asdeveloping countries make more careful evaluations of thecosts and benefits of mass educational programmes in theEnglish language.

6 Need for scenario buildingThis book suggests that development work should be put inhand towards the building and testing of scenarios whichencompass a range of possible futures for English in key areas.A Delphi panel of experts (p. 23) in different regions of theworld could be invited to respond to the scenarios and helpestablish local understandings of the changing role of English.Such qualitative work should go hand-in-hand with thecollection of key statistics and trend data.

References

English today


1l The legacy of history

Britains colonial expansion established the pre-conditions for theglobal use of English, taking the language from its island birthplace tosettlements around the world. The English language has grown up incontact with many others, making it a hybrid language which canrapidly evolve to meet new cultural and communicative needs.

l English in the 20th century The story of English in the 20th century has been closely linked tothe rise of the US as a superpower that has spread the Englishlanguage alongside its economic, technological and cultural inuence.In the same period, the international importance of other Europeanlanguages, especially French, has declined.

l Who speaks English?There are three kinds of English speaker: those who speak it as a rstlanguage, those for whom it is a second or additional language andthose who learn it as a foreign language. Native speakers may feel thelanguage belongs to them, but it will be those who speak English asa second or foreign language who will determine its world future.

l Language hierarchiesLanguages are not equal in political or social status, particularly inmultilingual contexts. How does English relate to other languages in amultilingual speakers repertoire? Why does someone use Englishrather than a local language? What characteristic patterns are there inthe use of English by non-native speakers?

Looking at the past is an important step towardsunderstanding the future. Any serious study of Englishin the 21st century must start by examining howEnglish came to be in its current state and spoken bythose who speak it. What factors have ensured thespread of English? What does this process tell usabout the fate of languages in unique political andcultural contexts? In what domains of knowledge hasEnglish developed particular importance and howrecently?

English is remarkable for its diversity, its propensity tochange and be changed. This has resulted in both avariety of forms of English, but also a diversity ofcultural contexts within which English is used in dailylife. The main areas of development in the use andform of English will undoubtedly come from non-native speakers. How many are there and where arethey located? And when and why do they use Englishinstead of their rst language? We need to be awareof the different place that English has in the lives ofnative speakers, second-language users and thosewho learn it as a foreign language.

This section examines the development of English,identies those languages which have historicallyrivalled English as a world language and explains thespecial place that English has in multilingual countriesand in the repertoires of multilingual speakers. Byshowing how our present arose from the past, we willbe better equipped to speculate on what the futuremight hold in store.

The colonial periodThe English language has been associated with migrat-ion since its first origins the language came into beingin the 5th century with patterns of people movementand resettlement. But as a world language its historybegan in the 17th century, most notably in the foundat-ion of the American colonies. Many European powerswere similarly expanding: French, Dutch, Portugueseand Spanish became established as colonial languages,the latter two still important outside Europe in LatinAmerica. But in the 19th century the British empire,with its distinctive mix of trade and cultural politics,consolidated the world position of English, creating alanguage on which the sun never sets.

The rise of the nation stateIn Europe of the middle ages, power was distributedbetween Church, sovereign and local barons, creatingmultiple agencies of social control, government and landmanagement. Even in the 1500s, a monarch such asCharles V ruled geographically dispersed parts ofEurope. But by the 17th and 18th centuries, the nationstate had emerged as a territorial basis for administrationand cultural identity. Yet language diversity was exten-sive and many language boundaries crossed the bordersof newly emerging states. Each nation state requiredtherefore an internal lingua franca, subject like otherinstruments of state to central regulation, which couldact as a vehicle of governance and as an emblem ofnational identity. National languages, not existing inEurope prior to the creation of nation states, had to beconstructed. Consequently, the English language wasself-consciously expanded and reconstructed to serve thepurposes of a national language.

Profound cultural as well as political changes affectedthe English language. Modern institutions of sciencewere founded, such as the Royal Society in Britain;language was added to the scientific agenda and madean object of study alongside investigations of the naturalworld. New words and ways of writing in English weredeveloped. For a time, scholars and clerics who regularlytravelled across the boundaries of national languagescontinued to use Latin as their lingua franca. But asknowledge of Latin declined and the rise of merchantand professional classes produced travellers unschooledin Latin, people sought alternative means of internatio-nal communication.

The idea of a national language being a requirementfor a nation state has remained a powerful one. The20th century process of decolonisation created a drive toestablish new national languages which could provide anintegrated identity for multi-ethnic states set up on theEuropean model. Few countries were as bold asSingapore, in adopting a multi-language formula whichreflected the ethnic languages of the new state. Even inIndia, Hindi is the sole national language and Englishtechnically an associate. In some countries a new natio-nal language had to be created such as BahasaMalaysia which raised the status of Malay into a national

language in a way similar to the 17th century extensionof English in vocabulary and function.

Nation states are getting more plentiful there arenow over 180 states represented at the UN and oneconsequence of the break-up of larger territories intoseparate states has been the emergence of new nationallanguages. Simultaneously, the role of the nation state isbeing weakened as economic globalisation, regionaltrading blocs and new multilateral political affiliationslimit national spheres of control. Nevertheless, the deathof the nation state is much exaggerated. National educa-tion systems, for example, play a major role in determi-ning which languages in the world are taught andlearned. The role of nation states is changing but is byno means abolished.

The emergence of national varietiesThe attempt to fix and ascertain the English language,made in the 18th and 19th centuries, was never entirelysuccessful: the language has continued to adapt itselfswiftly to new circumstances and people. And it was notjust Britain which desired a national language fromEnglish. Noah Websters proposed reforms of theAmerican spelling system, some of which give it a distin-ctive appearance in print, were intended explicitly tocreate a national linguistic identity for the newly inde-pendent country:

The question now occurs; ought the Americans to retainthese faults which produce innumerable inconveniences inthe acquisition and use of the language, or ought they atonce to reform these abuses, and introduce order and regu-larity into the orthography of the American tongue? ... acapital advantage of this reform ... would be, that it wouldmake a difference between the English orthography and theAmerican. ... a national language is a band of nationalunion. ... Let us seize the present moment, and establish anational language as well as a national government.(Webster, 1789)

There are an increasing number of national stan-dards, including those related to the New Englisheswhich have appeared in former colonial countries suchas Singapore. Each standard is supported (or soon maybe) by national dictionaries, grammars and style sheets.Nevertheless, no central authority has ever existed,either nationally or globally, which can regulate thelanguage.

A hybrid and exible languageEnglish has always been an evolving language andlanguage contact has been an important driver ofchange. First from Celtic and Latin, later fromScandinavian and Norman French, more recently fromthe many other languages spoken in the British colonies,the English language has borrowed freely. Some analystssee this hybridity and permeability of English as definingfeatures, allowing it to expand quickly into new domainsand explaining in part its success as a world language.

One of the few certainties associated with the futureof English is that it will continue to evolve, reflecting andconstructing the changing roles and identities of its spea-kers. Yet we are now at a significant point of evolution:at the end of the 20th century, the close relationship thathas previously existed between language, territory andcultural identity is being challenged by globalising forces.The impact of such trends will shape the contexts inwhich English is learned and used in the 21st century.

The legacy of history


Britains colonial expansion established the pre-conditions for the global useof English, taking the language from its island birthplace to settlementsaround the world. The English language has grown up in contact with manyothers, making it a hybrid language which can rapidly evolve to meet newcultural and communicative needs.

Is English the mostwidely spoken languagein the world today? p. 8

Will future language usebe shaped by time zonerather than geography inthe 21st century?p. 53


1 Pre-English period ( c. AD 450) The origins of English are, for a language, surprisingly well docu-mented. At the time of the Roman invasion c.55 BC, the indigenouslanguages of Britain were Celtic, of which there were two mainbranches (corresponding to modern Gaelic and Welsh). TheRomans made Latin an official language of culture and govern-ment, probably resulting in many communities in Britain beco-ming bilingual Celtic-Latin. Garrisons of troops then arrived fromelsewhere in the Roman empire, particularly Gaul, another Celticarea. In some points, the English language has repeated this earlyhistory of Latin: it was brought into many countries in the 17th to19th centuries as the language of a colonial power and made thelanguage of administration, spoken by a social elite, but not usedby the majority of the population. It served, moreover, as an inter-national lingua franca amongst the elites of many countries. Butthe use of Latin rapidly declined in the 17th and 18th centuries.Will English share this fate?

2 Early Old English (c.450c.850) The English language developed after the Anglo-Saxon invasionc.449 AD, when the Romans left Britain and new settlers broughtGermanic dialects from mainland Europe. Latin was still an impor-tant written language because of the Church and many Latinwords were introduced into Old English during this early period,but the language developed a new form: the first English literarytexts appeared.

3 Later Old English (c.8501100) This was a time of invasion and settlement from Scandinavia (theVikings) and a time of language change. In the north of Englanddialects of English were extensively influenced by Scandinavianlanguages. In the south, King Alfred, concerned about fallingeducational standards, arranged for many Latin texts to be transla-ted into English.

4 Middle English (c.11001450)The Norman Conquest (1066) and rule brought about many lingu-istic changes. French, now the official language in England, affec-ted English vocabulary and spelling. The grammar of English wasalso radically transformed. Whereas Old English expressed gram-matical relations through inflections (word endings), MiddleEnglish lost many inflections and used word order to mark thegrammatical function of nouns. Educated people probably neededto be trilingual in French, Latin and English. It was a flourishingperiod for English literature. Writers included Geoffrey Chaucer,whose language is beginning to look like modern English.

5 Early Modern English (c.14501750) This period spans the Renaissance, the Elizabethan era andShakespeare. It is the period when the nation states of Europe tooktheir modern form. The role of the Church and Latin declined. InEngland, key institutions of science, such as the Royal Society,were established and, by the end of the 17th century, theoreticianslike Isaac Newton were writing their discoveries in English ratherthan Latin.

Britain grew commercially and acquired overseas colonies. Englishwas taken to the Americas (first colony at Jamestown, Virginia1607) and India (first trading post at Surat 1614). With the rise ofprinting (first printed book in English 1473) English acquired astable typographic identity. Teaching English as a foreign languagebegan in the 16th century, first in Holland and France.

6 Modern English (c.17501950) English had become a national language. Many attempts weremade to standardise and fix the language with dictionaries andgrammars (Johnsons Dictionary 1755, the Oxford English Dictionary18581928). The industrial revolution triggered off a globalrestructuring of work and leisure which made English the internat-ional language of advertising and consumerism. The telegraph waspatented in 1837, linking English-speaking communities aroundthe world and establishing English as the major language for wireservices. As Britain consolidated imperial power, English-mediumeducation was introduced in many parts of the world. The interna-tional use of French declined. The first international series ofEnglish language-teaching texts was published from Britain in 1938and the worlds first TV commercial was broadcast in the US in1941. English emerged as the most popular working language fortransnational institutions.

7 Late Modern English (c.1950) With Britains retreat from the empire, local and partially standar-dised varieties of English have emerged in newly independentcountries. ELT has become a major private-sector industry. In theaftermath of World War II, the US became a global economic andcultural presence, making American English the dominant worldvariety. The first geostationary communications satellites werelaunched (Early Bird 1965) and the Internet was invented (US1970s). A world market in audio-visual products was created andsoap operas such as Dallas circulated the globe. Worldwide Englishlanguage TV channels began (CNN International launched 1989).Meanwhile, English has acquired new electronic forms, as the frag-ment of a textual interaction from a north European reflector forInternet Relay Chat shows:

Moonhoo joined (total 22) cam someone ping me please action fires a harpoon at Moonhoo. whispers: U all dont sound to awfullly excited :(:( North the host is a geek though Moonhoo: youre lagged bigtime.

Gefeng a be feaxe (nalas for fhe mearn)Gu-Geata leod Grendles modor;

brgd a beadwe heard, a he gebolgen ws,feorhgenilan, t heo on flet gebeah.

Beowulf seizes Grendels mother by the hair: a fragment from the epic Old English poem composed c. 750

A common writing: whereby two, although not understanding one the others language, yet by the helpe

thereof, may communicate their minds one to another. ... The harshness of the stile, I hope, will be corrected by

the readers ingenuity.Preface to A Common Writing, Francis Lodwick, 1647

And preie God save the king, that is lord of this langage, and alle that him feith berith and obeieth, everich in his degre, the more and the lasse. But considere wel that I ne usurpe not to have founden this werk of my labour

or of myn engyn.Prologue of A Treatise on the Astrolabe,

Geoffrey Chaucer, 1391

Seven ages of EnglishThis page provides an overview of the history of English, from its birth in the 5th century to the present day

The rise of the USBy the end of the 19th century, Britain had establishedthe pre-conditions for English as a global language.Communities of English speakers were settled aroundthe world and, along with them, patterns of trade andcommunication. Yet the world position of English mighthave declined with the empire, like the languages ofother European colonial powers, such as Portugal andthe Netherlands, had it not been for the dramatic rise ofthe US in the 20th century as a world superpower.There were, indeed, two other European linguisticcontenders which could have established themselves asthe global lingua franca French and German. Eco(1995) suggests:

Had Hitler won World War II and had the USA been redu-ced to a confederation of banana republics, we wouldprobably today use German as a universal vehicularlanguage, and Japanese electronic firms would advertisetheir products in Hong Kong airport duty-free shops(Zollfreie Waren) in German. (Eco, 1995, p. 331)

This is probably a disingenuous idea: the US wasdestined to be the most powerful of the industrialisedcountries because of its own natural and human resour-ces. The US is today the worlds third most populouscountry with around 260 million inhabitants. Not surpri-sing therefore that it now accounts for the greaterproportion of the total number of native English spea-kers. According to Table 1, which uses data generatedby the engco forecasting model (described more fully onp. 64), only Chinese has more first-language users. Whilesuch league tables beg as many questions as they answer,(and we will later discuss the serious problems attachedto statistics relating to language use) they do makeprovocative reading Hindi, Spanish and Arabic areclose behind English, but how secure their place will bein the 21st century is a matter of speculation.

For the spread of English, the aftermath of WorldWar II was decisive. American influence was extendedaround the world. As George Steiner has observed:

English acted as the vulgate of American power and ofAnglo-American technology and finance. ... In ways toointricate, too diverse for socio-linguistics to formulate preci-sely, English and American-English seem to embody formen and women throughout the world and particularlyfor the young the feel of hope, of material advance, ofscientific and empirical procedures. The entire world-imageof mass consumption, of international exchange, of thepopular arts, of generational conflict, of technocracy, ispermeated by American-English and English citations andspeech habits. (Steiner, 1975, p. 469)

Steiner captures the complex mix of the economic,technological, political and cultural which is evident inthe international domains of English at the end of the20th century. Those domains, listed in Table 2, arediscussed more fully later in the book. Here, we brieflyexamine how this situation arose in the second half ofthe 20th century.

World institutionsAfter the war, several international agencies were estab-lished to help manage global reconstruction and futuregovernance. The key one has proved to be the UnitedNations and its subsidiary organisations. Crystal (1997)estimates that 85% of international organisations nowuse English as one of their working languages, 49% useFrench and fewer than 10% use Arabic, Spanish orGerman. These figures probably underestimate the defacto use of English in such organisations. TheInternational Association for Applied Linguistics, forexample, lists French as a working language (and isknown by a French acronym AILA), but English is usedalmost exclusively in its publications and meetings. InEurope, the hegemony of English even on paper issurprisingly high. Crystal (1997) estimates 99% ofEuropean organisations listed in a recent yearbook ofinternational associations cite English as a workinglanguage, as opposed to 63% French and 40% German.

French is still the only real rival to English as a work-ing language of world institutions, although the worldposition of French has been in undoubted rapid decline

English in the 20th century


The story of English in the 20th century has been closely linked to the rise ofthe US as a superpower that has spread the English language alongside itseconomic, technological and cultural influence. In the same period, theinternational importance of other European languages, especially French, hasdeclined.

Language engco model Ethnologue

1 Chinese 1,113 1,1232 English 372 3223 Hindi/Urdu 316 2364 Spanish 304 2665 Arabic 201 2026 Portuguese 165 1707 Russian 155 2888 Bengali 125 1899 Japanese 123 125

10 German 102 9811 French 70 7212 Italian 57 6313 Malay 47 47

Table 1 Major world languages in millions of rst-languagespeakers according to the engco model and comparative

gures from the Ethnologue (Grimes, 1996)

1 Working language of international organisations and conferences

2 Scientific publication3 International banking, economic affairs and trade4 Advertising for global brands5 Audio-visual cultural products (e.g. film, TV,

popular music)6 International tourism7 Tertiary education8 International safety (e.g. airspeak, seaspeak)9 International law

10 As a relay language in interpretation and translation

11 Technology transfer12 Internet communication

Table 2 Major international domains of English

Will the growth of theInternet help maintainthe global inuence of English?p. 50

What effect will changingpatterns of trade have onthe use of English?p. 33

since World War II. Its use in international forums isunlikely to disappear entirely, however, because it retainsa somewhat negative convenience in being not English,particularly in Europe. It is the only alternative whichcan be used in many international forums as a politicalgesture of resistance to the hegemony of English. As adelegate from Ireland once addressed the League ofNations many years ago, explaining his use of French, Icant speak my own language, and Ill be damned if Illspeak English (cited in Large, 1985, p. 195).

Financial institutionsEnglish has been spread as a world language not only viapolitical initiatives. Key financial institutions have beenestablished in the 20th century, again after World WarII and with major American involvement. TheInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bankwere established after the Bretton Woods conference in1944. Through the Marshall plan, the US becameclosely involved in the post-war economic reconstructionof Europe, Japan and other parts of the Asia Pacificregion. The Korean and later the Vietnamese war conti-nued the process of spreading American influence.Cultural, economic and technological dependency onAmerica were soon a concern for nations across theworld. The Bretton Woods system has since played asignificant role in regulating international economic rela-tions and in introducing free-market regimes in countrieswhere control has been traditionally centralised. Asmore countries have been rendered open to globalflows of finance, goods, knowledge and culture, so theinfluence of English has spread.

Scientic publishingEnglish is now the international currency of science andtechnology. Yet it has not always been so. The renais-sance of British science in the 17th century put English-language science publications, such as the PhilosophicalTransactions instituted by the Royal Society 1665, at theforefront of the world scientific community. But the posi-tion was soon lost to German, which became the domi-nant international language of science until World WarI. The growing role of the US then ensured that Englishbecame, once again, the global language of experimentand discovery.

Journals in many countries have shifted, since WorldWar II, from publishing in their national language topublishing in English. Gibbs (1995) describes how theMexican medical journal Archivos de Investigacin Mdicashifted to English: first publishing abstracts in English,then providing English translations of all articles, finallyhiring an American editor, accepting articles only inEnglish and changing its name to Archives of MedicalResearch. This language shift is common elsewhere. Astudy in the early 1980s showed nearly two-thirds ofpublications of French scientists were in English. Viereck(1996) describes how all contributions in 1950 to theZeitschrift fr Tierpsychologie were in German, but by 198495% were in English. The journal was renamed Ethologytwo years later.

As might be expected, some disciplines have beenmore affected by the English language than others.Physics is the most globalised and anglophone, followeda close second by other pure sciences. Table 3 shows thepercentage of German scholars in each field reportingEnglish as their de facto working language in a study bySkudlik (1992).

It is not just in scientific publishing, but in bookpublication as a whole that English rules supreme.Worldwide, English is the most popular language ofpublication. Figure 2 shows the estimated proportion oftitles published in different languages in the early 1990s.

Unesco figures for book production show Britainoutstripping any other country in the world for thenumber of titles published each year. In 1996, a remar-kable 101,504 titles were published in Britain(Independent, 25 February 1997, p. 11). Although thereare countries which publish more per head of the popu-lation and many countries which print more copies,none publishes as many titles. Many of these books areexported, or are themselves part of a globalised trade inwhich books may be typeset in one country, printed inanother and sold in a third.

It is difficult to decide the relative cultural influenceof huge numbers of copies of few titles available on theone hand, against many titles printed in short runs onthe other. However, the statistics show the enormousamount of intellectual property being produced in theEnglish language in an era where intellectual property isbecoming increasingly valuable.

English in the 21st centuryThe position of English in the world today is thus thejoint outcome of Britains colonial expansion and themore recent activity of the US. Any substantial shift inthe role of the US in the world is likely to have animpact on the use and attractiveness of the Englishlanguage amongst those for whom it is not a firstlanguage. Later, we will see how the economic domi-nance of the US is expected to decline, as economies inAsia overtake it in size. The question remains whetherEnglish has become so entrenched in the world that adecline in the influence of the US would harm it. Are itscultural resources and intellectual property so extensivethat no other language can catch up? Or will otherlanguages come to rival English in their global impor-tance, pushing English aside much in the same way asLatin was abandoned as an international lingua franca300 years ago?


It has all happened so quickly David Crystal inEnglish as a global language.

Physics 98%Chemistry 83%Biology 81%Psychology 81%Maths 78%Earth Sciences 76%Medical Science 72%Sociology 72%Philosophy 56%Forestry 55%Vet. Sciences 53%Economics 48%Sports Sciences 40%Linguistics 35%Education 27%Literature 23%History 20%Classics 17%Theology 12%Law 8%

Table 3 Disciplines inwhich German academics

claim English as theirworking language

Japanese 5.1%

Spanish 6.7%

French 7.7%

German 11.8%

Chinese 13.3%

Russian 4.7%

Portuguese 4.5%

Korean 4.4%

Italian 4.0%

Dutch 2.4%

Swedish 1.6%

Other 5.8%English 28%

Figure 2 The proportion of the worlds books annually published in each language. English is themost widely used foreign language for book publication: over 60 countries publish titles in

English. Britain publishes more titles than any other country, thus generating more intellectualproperty in the language than the US. Some UK publishers, however, adopt US English house-

styles and this, together with the fact that print runs in North America are typically muchlonger than in the UK, ensures that books published in US English receive a wider circulationthan those in British English. In the 21st century there is likely to be considerable growth in

English language publishing in countries where English is spoken as a second language

Three types of English speakerThere are three types of English speaker in the worldtoday, each with a different relationship with thelanguage. First-language (L1) speakers are those forwhom English is a first and often only language.These native speakers live, for the most part, in countriesin which the dominant culture is based around English.These countries, however, are experiencing increasinglinguistic diversity as a result of immigration. Second-language (L2) speakers have English as a second or addi-tional language, placing English in a repertoire oflanguages where each is used in different contexts.Speakers here might use a local form of English, but mayalso be fluent in international varieties. The third groupof English speakers are the growing number of peoplelearning English as a foreign language (EFL).

Leith (1996) argues that the first two kinds of English-speaking community result from different colonialprocesses. He identifies three kinds:

In the first type, exemplified by America and Australia,substantial settlement by first-language speakers of Englishdisplaced the precolonial population. In the second, typifiedby Nigeria, sparser colonial settlements maintained theprecolonial population in subjection and allowed a propor-tion of them access to learning English as a second, or addi-tional, language. There is yet a third type, exemplified bythe Caribbean islands of Barbados and Jamaica. Here aprecolonial population was replaced by a new labour fromelsewhere, principally West Africa. ... The long-term effectof the slave trade on the development of the Englishlanguage is immense. It gave rise not only to black Englishin the United States and the Caribbean, which has been animportant influence on the speech of young English spea-kers worldwide, but it also provided the extraordinarycontext of language contact which led to the formation ofEnglish pidgins and creoles. (Leith, 1996, pp. 1812, 206)

Each colonial process had different linguistic conse-quences. The first type created a diaspora of native spea-kers of English (US, Canada, South Africa, Australia,New Zealand), with each settlement eventually establis-hing its own national variety of English. The second(India, West Africa, East Africa) made English an elitesecond language, frequently required for further educat-ion and government jobs.

The linguistic consequences of the third type werecomplex, including the creation of new hybrid varieties

of English called creoles. Creoles have as their origin apidgin a reduced form of communication usedbetween speakers of mutually unintelligible languages which becomes extended in vocabulary and grammar asa result of being used as a mother tongue. Classificationof creole speakers is problematic. From a linguistic view,there is merit in regarding creoles as distinct languages.From a sociolinguistic view, it may be better to regardcreole speakers as belonging to the English-speakingcommunity, because of the emergence in several count-ries of a post-creole continuum: a range of languagevarieties from standard English to fully fledged creole.

Dividing English speakers into three groups is a time-honoured approach to language use and, though notwithout its problems, is a useful starting point for under-standing the pattern of English worldwide. These threegroups have become widely known (after Kachru, 1985)as the inner circle, the outer circle and the expandingcircle (Figure 3). One of the drawbacks of this termino-logy is the way it locates the native speakers and native-speaking countries at the centre of the global use ofEnglish and, by implication, the source of models ofcorrectness, the best teachers and English-languagegoods and services consumed by those in the periphery.

This model, however, will not be the most useful fordescribing English usage in the next century. Those whospeak English alongside other languages will outnumberfirst-language speakers and, increasingly, will decide theglobal future of the language. For that reason we retainhere the terminology of first-language speaker (L1),second-language speaker (L2) and speaker of Englishas a foreign language (EFL). Figure 4 provides an alter-native way of visualising these three communities.

Who speaks English?


There are three kinds of English speaker: those who speak it as a firstlanguage, those for whom it is a second or additional language and thosewho learn it as a foreign language. Native speakers may feel the languagebelongs to them, but it will be those who speak English as a second orforeign language who will determine its world future.

INNER

OUTER

EXPANDING

320-380

150-300

100-1000

Figure 3 The three circles ofEnglish according to Kachru

(1985) with estimates ofspeaker numbers in millionsaccording to Crystal (1997)

375 million L1 speakers

750 million EFL speakers

Possible languageshift

Possible languageshift

375 million L2 speakers

Antigua and Barbuda 61Australia 15,316Bahamas 250Barbados 265Belize* 135Bermuda 60Brunei* 10Canada 19,700Cayman Is 29Gibraltar* 25Grenada 101

Guam* 56Guyana 700Hong Kong* 125India* 320Irish Republic 3,334Jamaica 2,400Liberia* 60Malaysia* 375Montserrat 11Namibia* 13New Zealand 3,396

Papua New Guinea* 120Philippines* 15Puerto Rico* 110Sierra Leone* 450St Kitts and Nevis 39St Lucia 29St Vincent and Grenadines 111Singapore* 300South Africa* 3,600Sri Lanka* 10Suriname 258

Trinidad and Tobago 1,200UK (England, Scotland, N. Ireland, Wales*) 56,990UK Islands

(Channel*, Man) 217US* 226,710Virgin Is (British) 17Virgin Is (US) 79Zambia* 50Zimbabwe* 250

Figure 4 Showing the three circles of English as overlappingmakes it easier to see how the centre of gravity will shift

towards L2 speakers at the start of the 21st century

Table 4 Native speakers ofEnglish (in thousands)incorporating estimates byCrystal (1997)

(*indicates territories inwhich English is used as anL1, but where there isgreater L2 use or signicantuse of another language)

Using a tripartite division as a starting point for analysis,we can find English spoken as a first language in over 30territories (Table 4). Crystal (1997) calculates that world-wide there are a little over 377 million speakers ofEnglish as a first language, including creole. It is a figurein line with other recent estimates and the figures gene-rated by the engco model (Table 1, p. 8, see also p. 64).

The second-language areasIn the 19th century, it was common to refer to English asthe language of administration for one-third of theworlds population. It is interesting to compare thisfigure with Crystals present-day estimate (1997) that theaggregated population of all countries in which Englishhas any special status (the total number of peopleexposed to English), represents around one-third of theworlds population. It is not surprising that the figuresare similar, since the more populous of the 75 or socountries in which English has special status (Table 5)are former colonies of Britain.

Competence in English among second-languagespeakers, like that in EFL speakers, varies from native-like fluency to extremely poor, but whereas in EFL areasEnglish is used primarily for communication with spea-kers from other countries, in an L2 area English is usedfor internal (intranational) communication.

Areas in which English is used extensively as a secondlanguage usually develop a distinct variety of Englishwhich reflects other languages used alongside English.Parts of the world where such varieties (New Englishes)have emerged are the former colonial territories inSouth Asia, South-east Asia, Africa and the Caribbean.Although these local forms of English have their ownvitality and dynamic of change, there is often an under-lying model of correctness to which formal usage orients,reflecting the variety of English used by the former colo-nial power. In the majority of countries this is British(Figure 5), with some exceptions such as the Philippinesand Liberia, which orient to US English.

The foreign-language areasThe number of people learning English has in recentyears risen rapidly. This, in part, reflects changes inpublic policy, such as lowering the age at which Englishis taught in schools. Like L2, the EFL category spans awide range of competence, from barely functional inbasic communication to near native fluency. The maindistinction between a fluent EFL speaker and an L2speaker depends on whether English is used within thespeakers community (country, family) and thus forms

part of the speakers identity repertoire. In the EFLworld there is, by definition, no local model of English,though speakers English accents and patterns of errormay reflect characteristics of their first language.

Language shiftIn many parts of the world there are ongoing shifts inthe status of English. These are largely undocumentedand unquantified, but will represent a significant factorin the global future of the language. In those countrieslisted in Table 6, the use of English for intranationalcommunication is greatly increasing (such as in profes-sional discourse or higher education). These countriescan be regarded as in the process of shifting towards L2status. In existing L2 areas, a slight increase in theproportion of the population speaking English (forexample, in India, Pakistan, Nigeria and thePhilippines), would significantly increase the global totalof secondlanguage speakers.

In many L2 areas, there is a trend for professionaland middle classes who are bilingual in English (arapidly growing social group in developing countries) toadopt English as the language of the home. English isthus acquiring new first-language speakers outside thetraditional native-speaking countries. Yet the numberof new second-language speakers probably greatly offsetsthe children in L2 families who grow up as first-languagespeakers a trend shown graphically in Figure 4.


Those who speak English alongside other languages willoutnumber first-language speakers and, increasingly, will

decide the global future of the language.

American English British English

W. AfricaE. Africa

AnglophoneS. Africa

AUSTRALASIA

New ZealandAustralia

PNGS.E. Asia

S. AsiaCaribbean

U.S.

Canada British Isles

Philippines (US)

Fiji

Am. Samoa

Figure 5 The branches of world English

The rst-language countries

ArgentinaBelgiumCosta RicaDenmarkEthiopiaHondurasLebanonMyanmar (Burma)NepalNetherlandsNicaraguaNorwayPanamaSomaliaSudanSurinamSwedenSwitzerland United Arab Emirates

Table 6 Countries intransition from EFL to L2

status

Table 5 (below)Second-language speakers of

English (in thousands)(*indicates a larger number

of L1 English speakers)

Australia* 2,084Bahamas* 25Bangladesh 3,100Belize* 30Bhutan 60Botswana 620Brunei 104Cameroon 6,600Canada* 6,000Cook Is 2Dominica 12Fiji 160Gambia 33Ghana 1,153Guam 92Guyana* 30

Hong Kong 1,860India 37,000Irish Republic* 190Jamaica* 50Kenya 2,576Kiribati 20Lesotho 488Liberia 2,000Malawi 517Malaysia 5,984Malta 86Marshall Is 28Mauritius 167Micronesia 15Namibia 300Nauru 9,400

Nepal 5,927New Zealand* 150Nigeria 43,000Northern Marianas 50Pakistan 16,000Palau 16,300Papua New Guinea 28,000Philippines 36,400Puerto Rico 1,746Rwanda 24St Lucia* 22Samoa (American) 56Samoa (Western) 86Seychelles 11Sierra Leone 3,830Singapore 1,046

Solomon Is 135South Africa 10,000Sri Lanka 1,850Surinam 150Swaziland 40Tanzania 3,000Tonga 30Tuvulu 600Uganda 2,000UK* 1,100US* 30,000US Virgin Is* 10Vanuatu 160Zambia 1,000Zimbabwe 3,300

English and other languagesA large number of native speakers is probably a pre-requisite for a language of wider communication, forthese speakers create a range of cultural resources (worksof literature, films, news broadcasts) and pedagogicmaterials (grammars, dictionaries, classroom materials)and provide opportunities for engaging in interactionswhich require knowledge of the language.

But a full understanding of the role of English in aworld where the majority of its speakers are notfirst-language speakers requires an understanding of howEnglish relates to the other languages which are usedalongside it. The European concept of bilingualismreflects an idea that each language has a natural geog-raphical home and that a bilingual speaker is thereforesomeone who can converse with monolingual speakersfrom more than one country. The ideal bilingual speakeris thus imagined to be someone who is like a monolin-gual in two languages at once. But many of the worldsbilingual or multilingual speakers interact with othermultilinguals and use each of their languages for diffe-rent purposes: English is not used simply as a defaultlanguage because it is the only language shared withanother speaker; it is often used because it is culturallyregarded as the appropriate language for a particularcommunicative context.

Languages in multilingual areas are often hierarchi-cally ordered in status. To the extent that such relations-hips are institutionalised, the hierarchy can be thought ofas applying to countries as much as to the repertoire ofindividual speakers. Shown schematically in Figure 6 is alanguage hierarchy for India, a complex multilingualarea where nearly 200 languages exist with differingstatus. At the pyramid base are languages used withinthe family and for interactions with close friends. Suchlanguages tend to be geographically based (or used bymigrant communities) and are the first languages learnedby children. Higher up the pyramid are languages whichare found in more formal and public domains and which

have greater territorial reach. For example, in thesecond layer from the base will be languages which inIndia form the medium of primary education, newspa-pers, radio broadcasts and local commerce. Above thesein the hierarchy will be languages used in official admini-stration, secondary education and so on to the highestlevel, in which will be found the languages of wider andinternational communication. The taper of the pyramidreflects the fact that fewer language varieties occupy thisposition: greatest linguistic diversity is found at the baseamongst vernacular languages. Indeed, very few of theworlds languages are used for official administration andin other public forums.

Not all speakers will be fluent in language varieties atthe higher levels. The normal pattern of acquisition willbegin with those languages at the base. Many of theworlds population never require the use of varieties atthe uppermost layer because they never find themselvesin the communicative position which requires suchlanguage. For example, an Indian from the state ofKerala whose mother tongue is a tribal language mayalso speak Tulu (2 million speakers) and the statelanguage Malayalam (33 million), or the neighbouringstate language of Kannada (44 million). If they know anyHindi or English, it is likely to be their fourth or fifthlanguage. However, more and more people in the worldwill learn languages in the uppermost layer as a result ofimproved education and changing patterns of communi-cation in the world.

Although a simple pyramid figure captures somet-hing of the hierarchical relationship between languagevarieties, it perhaps suggests too neat a pattern oflanguage use. For the majority of the worlds population,a particular language will exist at more than one level(for example, serve as a public language as well as alanguage in the family), though where a language servesdifferent communicative functions in this way it usuallyalso takes a variety of forms. For example, the classicsociolinguistic pyramid used to describe British English(Trudgill, 1974, p. 41) shows a similarly layered structurein which vernacular, informal varieties, often with stronggeographical basis, exist at the lowest layer, whilst at theapex is a standard form of English, showing little regio-nal variation and used for public and formal communi-cation. All speakers can be expected to modify theirlanguage to suit the communicative situation; even amonolingual English speaker will adapt accent, vocabu-lary, grammar and rhetorical form to suit the context.

English and code-switchingWhere English has a place alongside other languages ina local language hierarchy, speakers will normally usetheir first language in different contexts from those inwhich they use English. Whereas the first language maybe a sign of solidarity or intimacy, English, in manybilingual situations, carries overtones of social distance,formality or officialdom. Where two speakers know bothlanguages, they may switch between the two as part of anegotiation of their relationship. Indeed, they mayswitch between languages within a single sentence. Inthe following example a young job seeker comes into themanagers office in a Nairobi business. The young manbegins in English, but the manager insists on usingSwahili, thus denying the young mans negotiation ofthe higher status associated with English (Myers-Scotton, 1989, p. 339). Bilingual speakers use code-switching as a communicative resource, varying the mix

Language hierarchies


Languages are not equal in political or social status, particularly inmultilingual contexts. How does English relate to other languages in amultilingual speakers repertoire? Why does someone use English rather thana local language? What characteristic patterns are there in the use of Englishby non-native speakers?

HINDI, ENGLISH

National languages

Scheduled languages

Languages with widespread currency

Local vernacular varieties

HINDI, TELEGU, BENGALI, MARATHI, TAMIL

URDU, GUJRATI, KANNADA, MALAYALAM, ORIYA

PUNJABI, KASHMIRI, SINDHI, ASSAMESE, SANSKRIT

41 languages used for education58 taught as school subjects

87 used in media

Over 190 recognised language varieties

1,652 mother tongues recorded in 1961 census

Figure 6 A language hierarchy for India

of the two languages, for example, Swahili and English,in a way which only a member of the same speechcommunity can fully understand.

One of the global trends we identify later is the develop-ment of world regions composed of adjacent countrieswith strong cultural, economic and political ties. As suchregions develop, so it is likely that new regional languagehierarchies will appear. The European Union, forexample, may be in the process of becoming a singlegeolinguistic region like India (Figure 7). A survey in1995 by the European Bureau of Lesser Used Languagesreported that 42% of EU citizens could communicate inEnglish, 31% in German and 29% in French (cited inCrystal, 1997). Surveys of European satellite TV audien-ces (p. 46) confirm the widespread understanding ofEnglish over 70% of viewers claim they can follow thenews in English and over 40% could do so in French orGerman. (Sysfret, 1997, p. 37).

It is possible to conceptualise a world hierarchy, likethat outlined for Europe or India, (Figure 8), in whichEnglish and French are at the apex, with the position ofFrench declining and English becoming more clearly theglobal lingua franca. Later, we argue that English is alsosteadily colonising lower layers in this hierarchy formany of the worlds speakers, whereas the majority ofthe worlds languages found at present only at the base are likely to become extinct.

English increasingly acts as a lingua franca between non-native speakers. For example, if a German sales managerconducts business in China, English is likely to be used.Little research has been carried out on such interactions,but they are likely to have characteristic features,reflecting complex patterns of politeness and strategiesfor negotiating meaning cross-culturally. Firth (1996), forexample, analysed international telephone calls involvingtwo Danish trading companies and identified severalconversational strategies. The exchange below, betweena Dane (H) and a Syrian (B), shows one strategy whichhe termed let it pass where one person does notunderstand what has been said, but delays asking forelucidation in the hope that the meaning will emerge astalk progresses or else become redundant.

Experienced users of English as a foreign language mayacquire communicative skills which are different fromthose of native speakers, reflecting the more hazardouscontexts of communication in which they routinely findthemselves. However, the strategies employed by non-native speakers remains an under-researched area ofEnglish usage, despite the fact that there may already bemore people who speak English as a foreign languagethan the combined totals of those who speak it as a firstand second language.


English is not used simply as a default language;it is often used because it is culturally regarded as

the appropriate language for a particularcommunicative context.

ENGLISH, FRENCH, GERMAN

The big languages

National languages

Officially recognised and supported

Vernacular varieties of indigenous EU communities

DANISH, DUTCH, ENGLISH, FINNISHFRENCH, GERMAN, GREEK, IRISH

languages

ITALIAN, PORTUGUESE, SPANISH, SWEDISH

ALSATION, ASTURIAN, BASQUE, CATALAN, CORSICANFRISIAN, GALICIAN, LADIN, LUXEMBOURGISHOCCITAN, SARDINIAN, SCOTS GAELIC, WELSH

ALBANIAN, ARAGONESE, BRETON, CORNISH, FRANCO-PROVENCAL, FRIULIANKARELIAN, LALLANS, MACEDONIAN (GREECE), MANX, POLISH, ROMANY, SAMISH

CROAT, SLOVENE, SORBIAN, TURKISH, VLACH

Figure 7 A language hierarchy for the European Union

ENGLISH FRENCHThe big languages

Regional languages(*languages of the United Nations)

ARABIC, CHINESE*, ENGLISH* FRENCH*, GERMAN, RUSSIAN*

National languages Around 80 languages serve over 180 nation states

Official languages within nation states(and other safe languages)

Around 600 languages worldwide (Krauss, 1992)(e.g. Marathi)

Local vernacular languages

The remainder of the worlds 6,000+ languages

SPANISH*

Figure 8 The world language hierarchy

B: So I told him not to send the cheese after the blowingin the customs. We dont want the order after thecheese is blowing.

H: I see, yes.

B: So I dont know what we can do with the order now.What do you think we should do with this all blowing,Mr Hansen?

H: Im not uh (pause). Blowing? What is this, too big orwhat?

B: No, the cheese is bad Mr Hansen. It is like fermentingin the customs cool rooms.

H: Ah, its gone off!

B: Yes, its gone off.

Young man: Mr Muchuki has sent me to you about thejob you put in the paper.

Manager: Ulituma barua ya application? [DID YOU SEND ALETTER OF APPLICATION?]

Young man: Yes, I did. But he asked me to come to seeyou today.

Manager: Ikiwa ulituma barua, nenda ungojee majibu.Tutakuita uke kwa interview siku itakapoka. [IF YOUVEWRITTEN A LETTER, THEN GO AND WAIT FOR A RESPONSE. WE WILLCALL YOU FOR AN INTERVIEW WHEN THE LETTER ARRIVES]

Leo sina la suma kuliko hayo. [TODAY I HAVENT ANYTHINGELSE TO SAY]

Young man: Asante. Nitangoja majibu. [THANK YOU. I WILLWAIT FOR THE RESPONSE]

Will English become alanguage for work, like acoat worn at the ofcebut taken off at home?

p. 42

Will the spread of Englishbe responsible for the

extinction of thousandsof lesser used languages?

p. 38

Non-native speaker interactions

Summary


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1 The development of the languageThe English language has changed substantially in vocabularyand grammatical form often as a result of contact with otherlanguages. This has created a hybrid language; vocabulary hasbeen borrowed from many sources and grammatical structurehas changed through contact with other languages. This maycause problems for learners, but it also means that speakers ofmany other languages can recognise features which are not toodissimilar to characteristics of their own language. Although thestructural properties of English have not hindered the spread ofEnglish, the spread of the language globally cannot beattributed to intrinsic linguistic qualities.

2 The spread of EnglishThere have been two main historical mechanisms for the spreadof English. First was the colonial expansion of Britain whichresulted in settlements of English speakers in many parts of theworld. This has provided a diasporic base for the language which is probably a key factor in the adoption of a language as alingua franca. In the 20th century, the role of the US has beenmore important than that of Britain and has helped ensure thatthe language is not only at the forefront of scientific andtechnical knowledge, but also leads consumer culture.

3 English and other languagesThe majority of speakers of English already speak more thanone language. An important community for the futuredevelopment of English in the world is the outer circle of thosewho speak it as a second language. English often plays a specialrole in their lives and the fate of English in the world is likely tobe closely connected to how this role develops in future. English,for example, is becoming used by many EFL and L2 speakersfor a wider range of communicative functions. This process, bywhich English colonises the lower layers of the languagehierarchy in many countries, means that English may take oversome of the functions currently served by other languages in theconstruction of social identity and the creation and maintenanceof social relationships.

4 A single, European, linguistic areaWestern Europe is beginning to form a single multilingual area,rather like India, where languages are hierarchically related instatus. As in India, there may be many who are monolingual ina regional language, but those who speak one of the biglanguages will have better access to material success. Otherworld regions may develop in a similar way. This book focusesparticularly on emergent trends in Asia, but significantdevelopments are likely to occur also in the Americas, in Russiaand in sub-Saharan Africa.

References

Forecasting


2l Futurology

Futurology is one of the oldest of professions, judged with scepticismand awe in equal measure. Although facts and gures are an impor-tant ingredient in forecasting, they need to be interpreted with care.On these pages we outline some basic features of language changeand describe common problems with using statistics.

l Making sense of trends One of the key skills in forecasting is being able to recognise an un-derlying trend and to understand how it might develop in the future.Linguistic and social change rarely happen at a steady and predictablerate. Here we discuss various hazards associated with the interpre-tation of trend data using examples relevant to the English language.

l Predictability or chaos?The use of English worldwide can be regarded as a complex systemin which many factors interact in ways that are not easily predictable.But recent advances in modelling the behaviour of complex systems such as the weather could help us understand what patterns mayemerge in the global use of English.

l Scenario planningHow do forecasters in large companies cope with the uncertaintythat the future holds? Can the methods they employ be applied tomatters of culture and language as easily as to the price of oil?Scenario building is one methodology used by strategists to put to-gether known facts with imaginative ideas about the future.

History is littered with failures of prediction and thereis no reason to believe that attempts to predictprecisely what will happen to the English language willfare any better.

It is, however, possible to understand something ofthe ways in which languages evolve and howindividual speakers adapt their patterns of languageuse. This gives us some useful indicators as to theconditions under which change occurs, which kinds ofchange are likely and which unlikely, the reasons whylinguistic change happen and the timescales thatdifferent kinds of change require.

But many factors affecting the use of languages cannotbe predicted easily. Major upheavals war, civilrevolution and the breakup of nation states cancause languages to take unexpected directions, as canthe vagaries of fashion amongst the global elite. Mostpeople have opinions, ambitions and anxieties aboutthe future, but few people know how to planstrategically for such unpredictable events.

Strategic planning is not the same as prediction. Thissection provides a guide to some of the techniquesused by strategists and planners to createfuture-proof models and shows how they can beapplied to aspects of language change and globaltrends in the use of the English language.

The section begins with the hazards of extrapolatingfrom current data, examines what insights chaostheory used for weather forecasting has providedinto the behaviour of complex systems and ends witha discussion of the scenario-building techniques usedby transnational companies to ensure their strategicdecisions on investment and management stay robustagainst a range of possible futures.

Trend spottingFuturologists inhabit a frontierland between historicalfacts and guesses about the future. Most of the practicaltechniques of strategic planning used by large corporat-ions employ some kind of mix of empirical evidencetogether with the insight and judgement borne of practi-cal experience. But getting the mix right is an extremelydifficult task. Identifying trends even in the present canbe remarkably problematic. And although statisticalinformation is a primary resource for the futurologist,anyone trying to forecast the future of English willencounter problems in locating and using statistics asso-ciated with relevant worldwide trend data (opposite).

English in the future, as in the past, will be subject tothree types of change. First, although different speakers,communities or communicative domains may be affec-ted differently, there will be changes to the language itself.Certainly in pronunciation, vocabulary and grammar,but also in the range of text types and genres whichemploy English. Second, there will be changes in status.English may acquire a different meaning and pattern ofusage among non-native speakers, or be used for a widerrange of social functions. Third, English will be affectedby quantitative changes, such as numbers of speakers, theproportion of the worlds scientific journals published inEnglish, or the extent to which the English language isused for computer-based communication.

Listed here are some broad principles of languagechange. Identifying ways in which various changes aretaken up and spread from one community to anothermay suggest areas where we need to seek further infor-mation. While the dynamics of language change arelikely to be different within the three communities ofEnglish speaker we have already identified first-language speaker (L1), second-language speaker (L2)and the speaker of English as a foreign language (EFL) some general patterns can be observed.

How does language change?l Some kinds of change occur quickly, others slowly. Fashions

in slang usage among native speakers, or the borro-wing of words into another language, can develop inmonths, not years. But the shift which occurs when acommunity or family abandons one language andbegins to use another as a first language is usuallyintergenerational. Language shift often needs threegenerations to take full effect, which means that theremay be initial signs now of long-term changes whichmight take the greater part of another 100 years tofully complete.

l Individuals act as agents of change as do governments andinstitutions. Successful learning of English is known tobe closely associated with personal ambition andattributes such as personality type. But languagechange may also be imposed from outside or it mayresult from a rational response to a change in circum-

stances. A government policy decision, for example,might change the status of English as the first foreignlanguage taught in schools, or may encourageEnglish as a medium of university education. Ormarket liberalisation might result in the establishmentof joint-venture companies, paying high salaries butrequiring English-language skills in their workforce.

l Innovation in language tends to diffuse through social networks.It has often been observed that people who interacttogether on a regular basis, who have common loyal-ties and identity and who like each other, tend to uselanguage in similar ways. Any change in the patternsof communication or in the structure of social relat-ionships in such networks is likely to lead to a changein language use. The creation of new forms of socialnetwork or new patterns of social affiliation can alsobe expected to alter the way that speech communitiesare created and maintained. New communicationstechnology, such as the Internet for example, may beencouraging the formation of new kinds of socialaffiliation and new discourse communities.

l Language change does not move across geographical territories ina linear fashion. Linguistic innovations, such as newpronunciations, tend to jump from one urban area toanother, across rural areas and across nationalborders. In this respect they are similar to otherchanges brought about by social contact throughurban settings such as fashions in clothing, or theadoption of some new kind of consumer hardware.The growth of large cities in Asia will lead to manykinds of social change, including new patterns oflanguage use.

l Young people are important leaders of change. There haslong been recognised a so-called critical period inearly life when children seem able to learn languageseasily. But adolescence is perhaps an even moreimportant stage, where young people make the tran-sition to a social life which is largely directed bythemselves, when they acquire new social networksand identities and feel the requirement for appropri-ate language styles. They may take aspects of theseidentities through to adulthood; others may be transi-tional teenage phenomena. An understanding ofwhich languages the next generation of teenagers willbe speaking and learning is an important step inidentifying future trends.

l Language change may follow change in material circumstances.Language is often linked to particular social andcultural practices. Rehousing schemes, shifts inemployment and increased wealth may all contributeto rapid linguistic change. This particularly contribu-tes to language loss such as the disuse of Gaelic innorth-eastern Scottish fishing communitie

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