leading regional economist gives timely insight into aging & the economy
DESCRIPTION
On April 26, 2013 the Asia Society Korea Center had the honor of hosting Mr. Kosuke Motani, the Chief Economist of the Japan Research Institute, during its April Monthly Luncheon. In his lecture titled “Aging and Its Impact on Economy: What is going on in Japan and what Korea faces to,” Mr. Motani explored the intricate relationship between an aging population and a nation’s economy. By analyzing demographical patterns in Japan, he was able to present a comparison to Korea’s situation as well as valuable insights for its future. To learn more about the Asia Society Korea Center, please visit: http://asiasociety.org/koreaTRANSCRIPT
1
Aging and its Impact on Economy
--- What is going on in Japan and what Korea faces to
April 26, 2013
Kosuke MotaniChief Senior Economist, Economist DepartmentJapan Research Institute, Limited
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Population in Million, including Foreign Residents Source: National Census
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 1940
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
Age15-64 43.0 MillionAge65&Over 3.4 Million
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Population in Million, including Foreign Residents Source: National Census
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 1950
Many Were Born under Political Encouragement
Many Were Born with Survivors’ Joys for Peace
Age15-64 49.7 MillionAge65&Over 4.1 Million
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
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Population in Million, including Foreign Residents Source: National Census
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 1960
Angry Youth Protested to Conservative Government, with Unconscious Fear that
Many of Them Would not Get Jobs.
Age15-64 60.0 MillionAge65&Over 5.4 Million
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
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Population in Million, including Foreign Residents Source: National Census
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 1970
Baby Boomers Joined Labor Market, Contributed to Export Boom, and Brought Japan’s “Rapid Growth.”
Age15-64 71.6 MillionAge65&Over 7.3 Million
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
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Population in Million, including Foreign Residents Source: National Census
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 1980
Baby Boomers Forming Young Families Enlarged Domestic
Demands, Giving Japan “Steady Growth. “
Age15-64 78.9 MillionAge65&Over 10.7 Million
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
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Population in Million, including Foreign Residents Source: National Census
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 1990
Baby Boomers, Being Twice More than Their Parents, Eagerly Bought New Houses
and Brought House-Construction Boom.
Age15-64 85.9 MillionAge65&Over 14.9 Million
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
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Population in Million, including Foreign Residents Source: National Census
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 1995
BB Juniors Entered Labor Market under
Recession, Increasing
Employment and Unemployment at the Same Time.
Age15-64 87.2 MillionAge65&Over 18.3 Million
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
Reached Maximum.
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Population in Million, including Foreign Residents Source: National Census
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 2000
Aging Baby Boomers Started Consuming Less.
Age15-64 86.2 MillionAge65&Over 22.0 Million
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
Started Decreasing
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Population in Million, including Foreign Residents Source: National Census
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 2010
Rapid Increase of Late-Seniors Makes Social
Welfare System Malfunctioning
Retiring Baby Boomers Consume
Even Less.Rapid Decrease of Working Age
Population Brings Inevitable Shrink of Domestic Demand
Many BB Juniors’ Suffering from Low Wages of Unstable Jobs Makes Their
Consumption Weak.
Age15-64 81.7 MillionAge65&Over 29.5 Million
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
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Population in Million, including Foreign ResidentsSource: Prospects of NRI-SWP
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 2020
Dramatic Decrease of Working Age Population, Even Though
the Prospects Assumes Record-high Inflow of Foreign
Immigration.
Aging BB Juniors Will Start Consuming
Less.
Ultra Rise of the Late-Seniors
Age15-64 73.4 MillionAge65&Over 36.1 Million
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
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945
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Population in Million, including Foreign ResidentsSource: Prospects of NRI-SWP
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 2030
Age15-64 67.7 MillionAge65&Over 36.9 Million
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
13
Not Ye
t Born
Baby B
oom
ers' Ju
nio
rs
Born
befo
re 1
955
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Population in Million, including Foreign ResidentsSource: Prospects of NRI-SWP
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 2040
Age15-64 57.9 MillionAge65&Over 38.7 Million
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
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Born
befo
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96
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Population in Million, including Foreign ResidentsSource: Prospects of NRI-SWP
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 2050
Age15-64 50.0 MillionAge65&Over 37.7 Million
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
15
Not Ye
t Born
Born
befo
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97
5
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Population in Million, including Foreign ResidentsSource: Prospects of NRI-SWP
Structural Change of Japan's Population: as of 2060
Age15-64 44.2 MillionAge65&Over 34.6 Million
Silver Tsunami, or Aging Baby Boomers, in Japan
16
Age 0
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80-8
4
85 &
Over
0
1
2
3
4
5
Population in Million, excluding Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before Korean WarBorn after Korean War
Source: Statistics Korea
Korea Rep. Population Structure as of 1970
Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea
Age15-64 17.2 Million
Age65&Over 1.0 Million
17
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
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9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over
0
1
2
3
4
5
Population in Thousand, excluding Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before Korean WarBorn after Korean War
Source: Statistics Korea
Korea Rep. Population Structure as of 1980
Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea
Age15-64 23.3 Million
Age65&Over 1.5 Million
18
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over
0
1
2
3
4
5
Population in Thousand, excluding Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before Korean WarBorn after Korean War
Source: Statistics Korea
Korea Rep. Population Structure as of 1990
Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea
Age15-64 30.1 Million
Age65&Over 2.2 Million
19
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
1
2
3
4
5
Population in Thousand, excluding Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before Korean WarBorn after Korean War
Source: Statistics Korea
Korea Rep. Population Structure as of 2000
Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea
Age15-64 33.0 Million
Age65&Over 3.4 Million
20
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over
0
1
2
3
4
5
Population in Million, excluding Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before Korean WarBorn after Korean War
Source: Statistics Korea
Korea Rep. Population Structure as of 2010
Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea
Age15-64 34.8 Million
Age65&Over 5.4 Million
21
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
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40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
1
2
3
4
5
Population in Million, excluding Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before Korean WarBorn after Korean WarBorn after 2011
Source: Statistics Korea
Korea Rep. Population Structure as of 2020
Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea
Age15-64 36.6 Million
Age65&Over 8.1 Million
22
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over
0
1
2
3
4
5
Population in Million, excluding Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before Korean WarBorn after Korean WarBorn after 2011
Source: Statistics Korea
Korea Rep. Population Structure as of 2030
Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea
Age15-64 32.9 Million
Age65&Over 12.8 Million
23
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over
0
1
2
3
4
5
Population in Million, excluding Foreign Residents
Born before Korean WarBorn after Korean WarBorn after 2011
Source: Statistics Korea
Korea Rep. Population Structure as of 2040
Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea
Age15-64 28.9 Million
Age65&Over 16.7 Million
24
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over
0
1
2
3
4
5
Population in Million, excluding Foreign Residents
Born before Korean WarBorn after Korean WarBorn after 2011
Source: Statistics Korea
Korea Rep. Population Structure as of 2050
Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea
Age15-64 25.4 Million
Age65&Over 18.3 Million
25
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over
0
1
2
3
4
5
Population in Million, excluding Foreign Residents
Born after Korean WarBorn after 2011
Source: Statistics Korea
Korea Rep. Population Structure as of 2060
Silver Tsunami is also Hitting Korea
Age15-64 21.9 Million
Age65&Over 18.2 Million
26
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
100
200
300
400
500
Population in Thousand, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn Before IndependenceBorn in 20th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Singapore Population Structure as of 1970
Age15-64 1.20 MillionAge65&Over 0.07 Million
Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
27
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
100
200
300
400
500
Population in Thousand, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn Before IndependenceBorn in 20th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Singapore Population Structure as of 1980
Age15-64 1.65 MillionAge65&Over 0.12 Million
Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
28
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
100
200
300
400
500
Population in Thousand, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn Before IndependenceBorn in 20th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Singapore Population Structure as of 1990
Age15-64 2.20 MillionAge65&Over 0.17 Million
Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
29
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
100
200
300
400
500
Population in Thousand, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn Before IndependenceBorn in 20th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Singapore Population Structure as of 2000
Age15-64 2.86 MillionAge65&Over 0.29 Million
Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
30
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
100
200
300
400
500
Population in Thousand, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn Before IndependenceBorn in 20th CenturyBorn in 21th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Singapore Population Structure as of 2010
Age15-64 3.59 MillionAge65&Over 0.50 Million
Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
31
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
100
200
300
400
500
Population in Thousand, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn Before IndependenceBorn in 20th CenturyBorn in 21th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Singapore Population Structure as of 2020
Age15-64 3.66 MillionAge65&Over 0.93 Million
Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
32
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
100
200
300
400
500
Population in Thousand, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn Before IndependenceBorn in 20th CenturyBorn in 21th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Singapore Population Structure as of 2030
Age15-64 3.25 MillionAge65&Over 1.50 Million
Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
33
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
100
200
300
400
500
Population in Thousand, including Foreign Residents
Born Before IndependenceBorn in 20th CenturyBorn in 21th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Singapore Population Structure as of 2040
Age15-64 3.02 MillionAge65&Over 1.77 Million
Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
34
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
100
200
300
400
500
Population in Thousand, including Foreign Residents
Born Before IndependenceBorn in 20th CenturyBorn in 21th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Singapore Population Structure as of 2050
Age15-64 2.94 MillionAge65&Over 1.70 Million
Migration does not Count in Aging Singapore
35
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
100
200
300
400
500
Population in Thousand, including Foreign ResidentsSource: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Singapore Population Structure as of 2010
Foreign Immigrants Can be a Solution?
Population level as if those had lived in Singapore in 1990 have got older for
next 20 years, without going out of
the country nor becoming dead
Increase due to foreigners’ inflow
36
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
100
200
300
400
500
Population in Thousand, including Foreign ResidentsSource: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Singapore Population Structure as of 2040
Increase due to foreigners’ inflow
Foreign Immigrants Ends in more Seniors
Population level as if those had lived in Singapore in 1990 have
got older for next 50 years, without going out of the country
nor becoming dead
37
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
50
100
150
Population in Million, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before SCP
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
China Population Structure as of 1970
China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing
Age15-64 457 MillionAge65&Over
35 Million
38
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
50
100
150
Population in Thousand, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before SCP
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
China Population Structure as of 1980
China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing
Age15-64 586 MillionAge65&Over
47 Million
39
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
50
100
150
Population in Thousand, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before SCPBorn after SCP
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
China Population Structure as of 1990
China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing
Age15-64 755 MillionAge65&Over
63 Million
40
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
50
100
150
Population in Thousand, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before SCPBorn after SCP
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
China Population Structure as of 2000
China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing
Age15-64 855 MillionAge65&Over
86 Million
41
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
50
100
150
Population in Million, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before SCPBorn after SCPBorn in 21th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
China Population Structure as of 2010
China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing
Age15-64 973 MillionAge65&Over 111 Million
42
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
50
100
150
Population in Million, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before SCPBorn after SCPBorn in 21th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
China Population Structure as of 2020
China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing
Age15-64 996 MillionAge65&Over 167 Million
43
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
50
100
150
Population in Million, including Foreign Residents
Born Before WWIIBorn before SCPBorn after SCPBorn in 21th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
China Population Structure as of 2030
China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing
Age15-64 983 MillionAge65&Over 233 Million
44
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
50
100
150
Population in Million, including Foreign Residents
Born before SCPBorn after SCPBorn in 21th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
China Population Structure as of 2040
China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing
Age15-64 916 MillionAge65&Over 317 Million
45
Age 0
-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85 &
Over0
50
100
150
Population in Million, including Foreign Residents
Born before SCPBorn after SCPBorn in 21th Century
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
China Population Structure as of 2050
China: Dynamic Emerging and Maturing
Age15-64 870 MillionAge65&Over 331 Million
46
14% 15% 17%21%
26%31%
36%
44%49%
51%54%
59%
3.7 4.7 6.0 7.2 9.0 12 14 16 19 22 23 22
11 12 1518
2226
2934 36 36 37 37
7983
86 87 86 8481
7774 71
6763
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
20
40
60
80
100
百万人
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%Source: Prospects of NRI-SWP
Demographic Change of the Residents in Japan (1980-2035)
Age15~64
ProjectionPast
AgeOver65
AgeOver65Devided byAge 15 64~
AgeOver75
Japan: Already Aged and Still Aging
47
6% 7% 7% 8% 10%13%
16%
22%
27%
36%
47%
60%
0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 2.04.2 5.4 6.5
8.010
1.4 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.4 4.4 5.48.1
1013
1618
2327
3032
33 34 3537 37
3533
31
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
10
20
30
40
million
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%Source: Statistics Korea
Demographic Change of the Residents in Korea (1980-2035)
Age15~64
ProjectionPast
AgeOver65
Age over 65 devided byAge 15 64~
AgeOver75
Korea: Not Yet Aged but Will Age Rapidly
48
10% 10% 11%14%
18%
27%
39%
64%
84%
21 27 37 61106
160236
401
575
45 61 82120
176
272
379
591
730
457
586
755
855
973 996 983916
870
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
million
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Demographic Change of the Residents in China (1970-2050)
Age15~64
ProjectionPast
AgeOver65
Age over 65 devided by Age
15 64~
AgeOver75
China: Not Yet Aged but Will Age Rapidly
49
6% 7% 8% 10%14%
26%
46%
59% 58%
0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
0.6
1.0 1.1
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.30.5
0.9
1.51.8 1.7
1.2
1.6
2.2
2.9
3.6 3.7
3.33.0 2.9
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
1
2
3
4
million
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%Source: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Demographic Change of the Residents in Singapore (1970-2050)
Age15~64
ProjectionPast
AgeOver65
Age over 65 devided by Age
15 64~
AgeOver75
Singapore: Not Yet Aged but Will Age Rapidly
50
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%Senior Age Population ÷ Working Age Population
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Junior Age Population ÷ Working Age Population
ChinaSouth KoreaJapan
Junior age: 0-14yrs old / Working age: 15-64yrs old / Senior age: 65yrs old and overSource: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Figures include foreign residents数字には在留外国人を含む
Decrease of Children and Increase of Senior Citizens 1970-1980-1990-2000-2010-2020-2030-2040-2050年
1970
1980
1980
1970
1990
2000
2000
1990
2010
2020
2020
20502040
2050
1970
1980
1990
20002030
2050204020302020
2010
20402030
2010
Korea, China and Japan: Time Difference
51Americans Also Aging But Dying Earlier
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%Senior Age Population ÷ Working Age Population
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Junior Age Population ÷ Working Age Population
SingaporeUSA
South KoreaEurope
Japan
Junior age: 0-14yrs old / Working age: 15-64yrs old / Senior age: 65yrs old and overSource: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations
Figures include foreign residents
Decrease of Children and Increase of Senior Citizens 1970-1980-1990-2000-2010-2020-2030-2040-2050年
204020302020
20502040
203020202010
2000
1990
1980
1970
20502050
2050
1970
1980
1990
1970
2010
204020302020
1980
1990
2010
1990
1970
2050
2020
52
14% 15% 17%21%
26%31%
36%
44%49%
51%54%
59%
3.7 4.7 6.0 7.2 9.0 12 14 16 19 22 23 22
11 12 1518
2226
2934 36 36 37 37
7983
86 87 86 8481
7774 71
6763
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
20
40
60
80
100
百万人
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%Source: Prospects of NRI-SWP
Demographic Change of the Residents in Japan (1980-2035)
Age15~64
ProjectionPast
AgeOver65
AgeOver65Devided byAge 15 64~
AgeOver75
Japan’s Working Age Population Peaked in 1995
53
50-55年60-65年
65-70年
70-75年
75-80年90-95年
95-00年00-05年
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
at the beginning of each five years (million)# 10-14 years old minus # 60-64years old
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Change in #
Em
plo
yed in F
ive Y
ears
mill
ion
()
Source: National Census
# of Employment Decided by Demography
05-10年 R Squared 0.84=
80-85年
85-90年
55-60年
50-5
5年
55-6
0年
60-6
5年
65-7
0年
70-7
5年
75-8
0年
80-8
5年
85-9
0年
90-9
5年
95-0
0年
00-0
5年
05-1
0年
10-1
5年
15-2
0年
20-2
5年
25-3
0年
30-3
5年
35-4
0年
40-4
5年
45-5
0年
50-5
5年
55-6
0年
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
millionSource: National Census, NRI-SWD
Projected Employment Decrease
# 10-14 years old minus # 60-64years old at the beginning of each five years (million)
Change in # of Those Employed
Projected Change in # of Those Employed, assuming Employment Ratio of Each Age Staying the Same as of 2010
In Japan, Change in Working Age Population Decides Change in # of
Those Employed
54
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
million
Source: Government Bureau of Statistics
# of Those Employed in Japan
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
120
4
8
12
16
million
Source: Government Bureau of Statistics
Age if Those Employed in Japan
Those15 44~
Those 15 64~
Total
Over 65
55 64~
35 44~ 45 54~
25 34~
15 24~
Decreasing Employment in Japan
55
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
11
年度
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Trillion Yen
Wage and Retail Sales in Japan
Gross WagePaid
Change in Calculation System
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
11
年度
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
FY1
99
7=
10
0
Economy and Working Age Population
Working Age Population
Gross Retail Sales
Gross Retail SalesNominal GDP
Gross Wage Paid# of ThoseEmployed
Working Age Population affects Economy
56Disparity between Income and Consumption
4.0 4.1 4.0
3.4
132121 122 121
138146 143 146 143
132 134 135
157
188 183
196
184176
190
41 41 42 39 39 40 4450 49 46 50 47 49 52
58 6372
80
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
0
50
100
150
200
US
$ in
million
(U
S$
1=
JPY1
00
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
# o
f C
ars
Reg
iste
red
in
Million
Gross Personal Income and Gross Retail Sales in Japan
Gross Personal Income
Year
Gross Retail Sales
Gross Retail Salesexcluding Fuel Sales
# of Cars Newly Registered
Gross Exports
Increasing Exports Ended inIncrease of Personal Income of Senior & Rich Investors.
Increasing Retirement of Senior Workers Enhanced Factories’ Productivity and Ended in Export Increase .
Under Decreasing Working Age Population and Increasing Retirement, Increased Personal Income Did Not Trickle Down to Domestic Retail Sales.
57
☆ Modern Machineries with IT substitute human labor in factories, increase labor productivity and keep production level.
★ Decreasing working age population ends in decreasing # of workers and less amount of gross wages, reducing the amount of commodities needed.
☆ Stable production and decreasing needs result in price drop and less demand.
★ Seniors who own 83% of $14 trillion personal financial assets do not consume as much materials as youths do, but just enjoy saving.
Declining Working Age Population Decreases Demand,
not SupplyNot a General Theory, but a “Inconvenient Reality” in
Japan
58Social Security Expense and AgingTotal Expense: Exact Correlation to Late Senior Age Population
Government Spending: Rapid Rise due to Working Age Pop. Decline1
99
0
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
10
20
150
500
1,000
1,500
$U
S in
bill
ion (
$1=
\100)
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Pop
ula
tion
in
mill
ion
Population ofAge Over 75
Social SecurityExpense
Social Security Expense - TotalJAPAN 1990-2005
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
050
100
200
300
400
500
$U
S in
bill
ion (
$1=
\100)
Individual Payment
Employer Payment
Government Payment - Net
Social Security Expense - BearersJAPAN 1990-2005
Equivalent to Annual Tax Income
of National Government
59Medical and Care for Aged ExpenseTotal Expense: Exact Correlation to Late Senior Age PopulationGovernment Spending: Rise due to Working Age Pop. Decline
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
10
20
150
100
200
300
400
500
$U
S in
bill
ion (
$1=
\100)
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Pop
ula
tion
in
mill
ion
Population of AgeOver 75
SSE - Medical &Care for Aged
SSE - Medical & Care for AgedJAPAN 1990-2005
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
050
50
100
150
200
$U
S in
bill
ion (
$1=
\100)
Individual Payment
Employer Payment
Government Payment - Net
SSE Beares - Medical & Care for AgedJAPAN 1990-2005
60Medical and Care for Aged ExpenseTotal Expense: Increasing Faster than Late Senior Age Population
Government Spending: Rocket Rise due to Wrkng Age Pop. Decline
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
050
50
100
150
200
$U
S in
bill
ion (
$1=
\100)
Individual Payment
Employer Payment
Government Payment - Net
SSE Beares - PensionJAPAN 1990-2005
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
10
20
150
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
$U
S in
bill
ion (
$1=
\100)
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Pop
ula
tion
in
mill
ion
Population of AgeOver 75
SSE - Pension
SSE - PensionJAPAN 1990-2005
Equivalent to Half of Annual Tax Income of National Government
61Unemployed Female would Save UsSenior Citizens in Japan Do Not Consume as They Did When Young
3,409
827
1,682
855
1,655
869
Full-time Worker
Part-time Worke
Unemployed
House Workers
Students
Others
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
FemaleMale
Source: National Census
# of Labors in Japan2005, Including Foreingers
Ten Tousands→
62
☆ Let younger generation get the financial assets; through accelerated inheritance with tax incentives, promoting consumption of rich seniors by innovative product development, and raising wages by cutting off dividends.
★ Let more women work, while raising their wages.
☆ Let more foreigners come to Japan, not to work as cheap labor but to travel around, stay in, live on and consume.
★ Reforms of the systems of pension, medical and care for senior citizens look urgent. Do not blame neither economy nor government, since the initial cause is the aging of all of us. Blaming without facing the fact delays our actions.
Four Suggestions I wrote in my Book