leading producer of base and precious metals russian economic forum london april 2004

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Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

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Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004. Norilsk Nickel Overview. MATROSOV MINE. HEADQUARTERS. KOLA DIVISION. ZAO POLYUS. GIPRONIKEL. POLAR DIVISION. LENZOLOTO. STILLWATER MINING COMPANY. 13%. 20%. 3%. ~4 0%. Montana USA. 12%. 1 .3 %. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals

Russian Economic Forum

London

April 2004

Page 2: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

2

GIPRONIKELHEADQUARTERS

STILLWATER MINING

COMPANY

POLAR DIVISIONKOLA DIVISION

LENZOLOTOZAO POLYUS

MATROSOV MINE

Montana USA

Magadan

Irkutsk

Krasnoyarsk

Norilsk

MurmanskLondon

Moscow

Saint Petersburg

Norilsk Nickel Overview

13% 20% 3%

~40%

1.3%12%

Market Share

Metal

Distribution Network

• London, UK

• Zug, Switzerland

• Hong Kong, China

• Pittsburgh, USA

Page 3: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

3

40

18.2

9.15.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

NorilskNickel

AngloPlatinum

ImpalaPlatinum

Lonmin

Source: Company reports

Leading Market Positions in 2003

Largest Nickel Producers (% share of world production)

Largest Palladium Producers* (% share of world production)

Largest Platinum Producers* (% share of world production)

Note: (*) Analysts’ estimate for Norilsk Nickel

Largest Copper Producers (% share of world production)

Largest Gold Producers (% share of world production, proforma for NN)

20.0

15.5

8.46.7

5.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

NorilskNickel

Inco Falcon-bridge

BHPBilliton

WMC

35.9

18.8

12.6 12

0

10

20

30

40

AngloPlatinum

ImpalaPlatinum

Lonmin NorilskNickel

~

~

10

6.55.2 5.1 4.7

3.2 3 2.9

02468

1012

Codelc

o

Phelps

Dod

ge

BHP Billi

ton

Rio Tint

o

Grupo M

exico

Nordde

utsch

e Aff

KGHM

Norilsk

Nick

el

8.9

7 6.7 6.4

4.63.6 3.5

1.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

Newmon

t

AngloG

old

Barrick

Gold Fiel

ds

Placer

Dome

Harmon

y Gold

Rio Tint

o

Norilsk

Nick

el

Page 4: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

4

2832

11

18

38

24

3529

2025

3428

22 22

0

10

20

30

40

Norilsk

Nick

el

BHP Billi

ton

Falcon

bridg

eW

MC

Rio Tint

o

Anglo

American Inc

o

20012002

Industry Leading Profitability

EBITDA Margin (%)

Key Financials* (USD in millions)

Note: (*) The previously reported figures for 2001 have been restated to account for changes in the purchasing power of the Rouble (the measurement currency) and are stated in terms of the measurement unit current at the date of the balance sheet. For comparison purposes 2001 financial statementswere restated to reflect asset revaluation, new accounting policies, and the introduction of some best practices in financial disclosure. Net profit wasadjusted to exclude the non-cash-flow changes in fair value of an embedded derivative of USD 269 million (2001 - USD 824 millions)

Source: Company reports

4 382

3 094

1 023 809411 315

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

2001 2002RevenuesOperating ProfitAdjusted Net Profit

Page 5: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

5

Breakdown of Revenues(2002 - 100% = USD 3 094 million; 2003 - management estimates)

By metal

By geography

NickelCopperPlatinumPalladiumGold

54%

23%

13%

6%4%

2002 2003E

EuropeAmericaAsiaRussia

73%

9%

8%10%

59%

10%

18%

13%

57%16%

9%

11%7%

Page 6: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

6

6 000

10 000

14 000

18 000

01.01

.03

30.06

.03

27.12

.03

1 400

1 800

2 200

2 600

01.01

.03

30.06

.03

27.12

.03600

700

800

900

01.01

.03

30.06

.03

27.12

.03

150

200

250

300

01.01

.03

30.06

.03

27.12

.03

ARP (2003E) = 9 619

Average Metal Prices in 2003 Nickel (USD per ton)

Copper (USD per ton)

Palladium (USD per ounce)

Platinum (USD per ounce)

Note: (*) Realized price of 60 tons pledged against the loan has been excluded from calculations

*

ARP (2003E) = 1 791 ARP (2003E) = 693

ARP (2003E) = 197

Source: Bloomberg

Page 7: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

01.01

.01

30.06

.01

27.12

.01

25.06

.02

22.12

.02

20.06

.03

17.12

.03

PGM Markets• Auto manufacturers started switching back from platinum to palladium in

autocatalyst production boosting demand• Automakers continue to destock palladium• The palladium market is currently in a material surplus

• The platinum market is in deficit for the fourth consecutive year, and is expected to move into balance in 2005 as South Africa increases production

Palladium

Platinum & Palladium Price (LPPM) (in USD per ounce)

Platinum/Palladium Price Ratio

3-year average

Platinum

100

300

500

700

900

1 100

01.01

.01

30.06

.01

27.12

.01

25.06

.02

22.12

.02

20.06

.03

17.12

.03

PlatinumPalladium

Source: Bloomberg

Page 8: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

8

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

01.01

.02

01.07

.02

01.01

.03

01.07

.03

01.01

.04

Stillwater AcquisitionStillwater Mining Company

• In 2002 Stillwater produced 476,000 ounces of palladium and 141,000 ounces of platinumTransaction

• Norilsk Nickel acquired 55.5% of Stillwater’s common stock • Consideration consisted of two parts:

– USD 132 MM in cash – approximately 877,000 ounces of palladium

Creating Value • Provides a solid distribution platform for PGMs in the US, improving access to the key end-users• Increased reliability and supply in the palladium market preempting the substitution effect and promoting the

use of palladium• Geographical diversification of the mineral resource base/reduction of country risk

Stillwater Adjusted Share Performance Exchange Ratio (Ounces per share)

3-year average

50

100

150

200

250

300

23.06

.03

23.09

.03

23.12

.03

StillwaterPalladiumS&P 500

Source: Bloomberg

Page 9: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

9

Palladium Sales in 2003• Contracts signed for 100% of annual production plan

– 95% of the sales contracts are for 1-year or longer – 75% of the contracts are with end-users– Signed up many consumers from the dentistry industry in Europe

• Plan active promotion campaign to increase palladium usage• Sales of PGMs in the US increased in the 2nd half of 2003 after closing of Stillwater

transaction

Sales

Palladium Sales in North America (USD in millions)

Platinum Sales in North America (USD in millions)

90

113

240

50

100

150

200

250

2002 2003E

2H1H

31

45

100

15

30

45

60

75

2002 2003E

2H1H

8.5x 7.5x

Page 10: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

10

Nickel Market Overview - 2003

Nickel Price ( LME, in USD per ton)

• Record year for nickel producers– Stainless steel demand growth of 6% in 2003– Growing nickel consumption in China

– Stainless steel production reached approximately 1 million tons – Reduction in production (-25 thousand tons) as a result of Inco strike– Market price reached 14-year high

• Tight nickel market in the next 2-3 years– No major expansion projects until 2006 (Voisey’s Bay) – Low volumes of available scrap

Source: Bloomberg

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

01.01

.01

30.06

.01

27.12

.01

25.06

.02

22.12

.02

20.06

.03

17.12

.03

Page 11: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

11

9 11 12

231 230

297

245

0

70

140

210

280

350

2001 2002 2003E 2004F

Norimet and ExportsSales in Russia2004 Sales/Production Forecast

Nickel Sales

• Production rose to 238,800 tons in 2003, up 19,000 from 2002 level• 70,000* tons delivered to the market from inventory• Sales to Asia rose to 25% of overall export sales volume from 12% in 2002• May release additional 15,000 tons out of inventory**

Nickel Sales (In thousand tons)

Note: (*) Including 60 tons pledged against the loan; (**) forecast .

*

15**

Page 12: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

12

The Leading Gold Producer

• 100% stake acquired in Russia’s largest gold producer in October 2002 for USD 226 million

• One of the largest gold deposits in Russia - Olimpiadinskoye

ZAO Polyus

OAO Matrosov Mine

OAO Lenzoloto

• A controlling stake of 50.7% acquired in August 2003 for RUR 1,033 million (~USD 34 million)

• Natalkinskoye deposit with proven reserves of 250 tons

• Feasibility Study underway

• 44.9% (58.6% voting) acquired in September 2003 for RUR 4,665 million (~USD 153 million)

• Reserves of 200 tons and resources of 100 tons • “Key” to Sukhoi Log deposit

With current annual production of 1.3 MM ounces, Norilsk Nickel is one the world’s 10 largest gold producers

830 000

32 000

320 000

Norilsk • Gold production as a by-product in the process of Nickel production in Taimyr Peninsula 130 000

2003E Production

Page 13: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

13

Acquisition of 20% stake in Gold Fields LtdGold Fields

• The 4-th largest gold producer• Over 4.3 million ounces of attributable annual gold production • 84 million ounces of mineral reserves• Primarily operations in South Africa, Ghana and Australia

Transaction • Norilsk Nickel acquired approximately 98.5 million ordinary shares (20% stake) of Gold

Fields from Anglo American Plc • Total consideration USD 1,160 MM in cash

– USD 400 MM – own cash– USD 800 MM – 6 months unsecured financing provided by Citigroup Global Markets

at Libor plus 1.5%Creating Value

• Consistent with the strategy to increase Norilsk Nickel position in the gold mining industry• Exploratory discussions on a broader alliance between Norilsk Nickel and Gold Fields• Geographical diversification• Attractive valuation – acquired at 7% discount to market price

Page 14: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

14

PolyusPolar Division

• Gold has rallied steadily since the beginning of 2001, settling at the current level of above $400/tr.oz.

• Dollar weakening and risk aversion among investors and speculators are the key drivers

• Mine gold supply is likely to fall in the near term due to declining grades

• Liberalization of the Chinese gold sector is likely to result in long-term demand growth from this potentially important consuming nation

Gold Market

Gold Price & NN Group Production (USD per ounce(lhs); in millions of ounces(rhs))

Source: Bloomberg

250

300

350

400

450

01.01

.01

30.06

.01

27.12

.01

25.06

.02

22.12

.02

20.06

.03

17.12

.03

129134

130

830

0

400

800

1 200

1 600

128

2001 2002 2003*

Note: (*) Excluding Lenzoloto and Matrosov Mine

Page 15: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

15

Further Development of Gold Business

• Acquisition of the mining rights for the Sukhoy Log deposit (reserves of 33MM ounces) would increase annual production by a further 0.9MM

• In December 2003 Polyus won the rights for geological survey and development of the Titimukhta gold field (reserves of 0.6MM ounces)

• Continuing geological exploration in existing mining areas

• Exploratory discussions with Gold Fields on a broader alliance

Largest Gold Producers (in millions of ounces, proforma for NN)

Source: Company reports

8.9

7 6.7 6.4

4.63.6 3.5

1.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

Newmon

t

AngloG

old

Barrick

Gold Fiel

ds

Placer

Dome

Harmon

y Gold

Rio Tint

o

Norilsk

Nick

el

Page 16: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

16

• Payout of interim dividends

• Russian Parliament and President signed amendments to the law lifting the secrecy regime from

PGM production and reserves data

• Election of further independent directors to the Board

• Awards and Recognitions• Standard & Poor’s: improvement to 5th position in 2003 from 13th in 2002 in the Russian transparency and

disclosure survey of Russia’s 45 largest companies– Survey based on three blocks of criteria:

– Ownership structure and investor relations– Financial and operational information– Board and management structure and processes

• RTS and “Securities Market” magazine: Winner of the nomination for best annual report and #1 in “best information disclosure” in the sixth annual reports and websites contest featuring 85 Russian leading companies (December 2003)

• Investors Protection Association of Russia: most significant improvement in corporate governance (2002)• Euromoney: Norilsk Nickel named “a leading company in Russia for corporate governance” in 2002

Corporate Governance Achievements

Page 17: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

17

• Transparency – Publish base metal reserves audit in accordance with international standards

(Q1, 2004)– Publish PGMs production and complete PGMs reserves audit (Q4, 2004)

• Distribution – Further increase long-term contracts and share of direct sales to end-users – Enter into long-term agreements with major car producers

• Improve financial management – Continue reducing labor costs by reducing number of employees– Cut social costs

2004 Objectives

Page 18: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

18

• Optimize production– Implement development strategy released in 1Q 2003– Finalize renovation of flash smelters at Nadezhda to increase efficiency and

capacity (to increase recovery rate and cut costs of production)– Research collective flotation and high-grade matte leach refining technologies – Put Pelyatka natural gas field into operation as a major step towards implementing

the long-term energy strategy

• Corporate Development – Evaluate domestic opportunities in gold and titanium– Consolidate gold assets into one company– Exploit opportunities in the restructuring of Russia’s power sector – Evaluate further opportunities

2004 Objectives (continued)

Page 19: Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004

19

The Leading Mining Company Norilsk Nickel shares are traded on:

RTS (GMKN$ RU) and MICEX (GMKN4(5) RM) in Moscow ADRs in New York (NILSY US), London (MNOD LI) and Berlin (NNIA GR)

Norilsk Nickel Share Price Performance vs. Mining Indexes (in US dollars for NN; indexes adjusted to NN share price)

Source: Bloomberg

10.00

25.00

40.00

55.00

70.00

01.01.20

02

01.04.2002

01.07.20

02

01.10.2002

01.01.2003

01.04.20

03

01.07.20

03

01.10.2003

01.01.2004

01.04.2004

Norilsk Nickel in RTSMSCI - World Met & MinHSBC Global Mining 100HSBC Global NickelHSBC Global Platinum