leading producer of base and precious metals russian economic forum london april 2004
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Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals Russian Economic Forum London April 2004. Norilsk Nickel Overview. MATROSOV MINE. HEADQUARTERS. KOLA DIVISION. ZAO POLYUS. GIPRONIKEL. POLAR DIVISION. LENZOLOTO. STILLWATER MINING COMPANY. 13%. 20%. 3%. ~4 0%. Montana USA. 12%. 1 .3 %. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Leading Producer of Base and Precious Metals
Russian Economic Forum
London
April 2004
2
GIPRONIKELHEADQUARTERS
STILLWATER MINING
COMPANY
POLAR DIVISIONKOLA DIVISION
LENZOLOTOZAO POLYUS
MATROSOV MINE
Montana USA
Magadan
Irkutsk
Krasnoyarsk
Norilsk
MurmanskLondon
Moscow
Saint Petersburg
Norilsk Nickel Overview
13% 20% 3%
~40%
1.3%12%
Market Share
Metal
Distribution Network
• London, UK
• Zug, Switzerland
• Hong Kong, China
• Pittsburgh, USA
3
40
18.2
9.15.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
NorilskNickel
AngloPlatinum
ImpalaPlatinum
Lonmin
Source: Company reports
Leading Market Positions in 2003
Largest Nickel Producers (% share of world production)
Largest Palladium Producers* (% share of world production)
Largest Platinum Producers* (% share of world production)
Note: (*) Analysts’ estimate for Norilsk Nickel
Largest Copper Producers (% share of world production)
Largest Gold Producers (% share of world production, proforma for NN)
20.0
15.5
8.46.7
5.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
NorilskNickel
Inco Falcon-bridge
BHPBilliton
WMC
35.9
18.8
12.6 12
0
10
20
30
40
AngloPlatinum
ImpalaPlatinum
Lonmin NorilskNickel
~
~
10
6.55.2 5.1 4.7
3.2 3 2.9
02468
1012
Codelc
o
Phelps
Dod
ge
BHP Billi
ton
Rio Tint
o
Grupo M
exico
Nordde
utsch
e Aff
KGHM
Norilsk
Nick
el
8.9
7 6.7 6.4
4.63.6 3.5
1.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
Newmon
t
AngloG
old
Barrick
Gold Fiel
ds
Placer
Dome
Harmon
y Gold
Rio Tint
o
Norilsk
Nick
el
4
2832
11
18
38
24
3529
2025
3428
22 22
0
10
20
30
40
Norilsk
Nick
el
BHP Billi
ton
Falcon
bridg
eW
MC
Rio Tint
o
Anglo
American Inc
o
20012002
Industry Leading Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%)
Key Financials* (USD in millions)
Note: (*) The previously reported figures for 2001 have been restated to account for changes in the purchasing power of the Rouble (the measurement currency) and are stated in terms of the measurement unit current at the date of the balance sheet. For comparison purposes 2001 financial statementswere restated to reflect asset revaluation, new accounting policies, and the introduction of some best practices in financial disclosure. Net profit wasadjusted to exclude the non-cash-flow changes in fair value of an embedded derivative of USD 269 million (2001 - USD 824 millions)
Source: Company reports
4 382
3 094
1 023 809411 315
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
2001 2002RevenuesOperating ProfitAdjusted Net Profit
5
Breakdown of Revenues(2002 - 100% = USD 3 094 million; 2003 - management estimates)
By metal
By geography
NickelCopperPlatinumPalladiumGold
54%
23%
13%
6%4%
2002 2003E
EuropeAmericaAsiaRussia
73%
9%
8%10%
59%
10%
18%
13%
57%16%
9%
11%7%
6
6 000
10 000
14 000
18 000
01.01
.03
30.06
.03
27.12
.03
1 400
1 800
2 200
2 600
01.01
.03
30.06
.03
27.12
.03600
700
800
900
01.01
.03
30.06
.03
27.12
.03
150
200
250
300
01.01
.03
30.06
.03
27.12
.03
ARP (2003E) = 9 619
Average Metal Prices in 2003 Nickel (USD per ton)
Copper (USD per ton)
Palladium (USD per ounce)
Platinum (USD per ounce)
Note: (*) Realized price of 60 tons pledged against the loan has been excluded from calculations
*
ARP (2003E) = 1 791 ARP (2003E) = 693
ARP (2003E) = 197
Source: Bloomberg
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
01.01
.01
30.06
.01
27.12
.01
25.06
.02
22.12
.02
20.06
.03
17.12
.03
PGM Markets• Auto manufacturers started switching back from platinum to palladium in
autocatalyst production boosting demand• Automakers continue to destock palladium• The palladium market is currently in a material surplus
• The platinum market is in deficit for the fourth consecutive year, and is expected to move into balance in 2005 as South Africa increases production
Palladium
Platinum & Palladium Price (LPPM) (in USD per ounce)
Platinum/Palladium Price Ratio
3-year average
Platinum
100
300
500
700
900
1 100
01.01
.01
30.06
.01
27.12
.01
25.06
.02
22.12
.02
20.06
.03
17.12
.03
PlatinumPalladium
Source: Bloomberg
8
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
01.01
.02
01.07
.02
01.01
.03
01.07
.03
01.01
.04
Stillwater AcquisitionStillwater Mining Company
• In 2002 Stillwater produced 476,000 ounces of palladium and 141,000 ounces of platinumTransaction
• Norilsk Nickel acquired 55.5% of Stillwater’s common stock • Consideration consisted of two parts:
– USD 132 MM in cash – approximately 877,000 ounces of palladium
Creating Value • Provides a solid distribution platform for PGMs in the US, improving access to the key end-users• Increased reliability and supply in the palladium market preempting the substitution effect and promoting the
use of palladium• Geographical diversification of the mineral resource base/reduction of country risk
Stillwater Adjusted Share Performance Exchange Ratio (Ounces per share)
3-year average
50
100
150
200
250
300
23.06
.03
23.09
.03
23.12
.03
StillwaterPalladiumS&P 500
Source: Bloomberg
9
Palladium Sales in 2003• Contracts signed for 100% of annual production plan
– 95% of the sales contracts are for 1-year or longer – 75% of the contracts are with end-users– Signed up many consumers from the dentistry industry in Europe
• Plan active promotion campaign to increase palladium usage• Sales of PGMs in the US increased in the 2nd half of 2003 after closing of Stillwater
transaction
Sales
Palladium Sales in North America (USD in millions)
Platinum Sales in North America (USD in millions)
90
113
240
50
100
150
200
250
2002 2003E
2H1H
31
45
100
15
30
45
60
75
2002 2003E
2H1H
8.5x 7.5x
10
Nickel Market Overview - 2003
Nickel Price ( LME, in USD per ton)
• Record year for nickel producers– Stainless steel demand growth of 6% in 2003– Growing nickel consumption in China
– Stainless steel production reached approximately 1 million tons – Reduction in production (-25 thousand tons) as a result of Inco strike– Market price reached 14-year high
• Tight nickel market in the next 2-3 years– No major expansion projects until 2006 (Voisey’s Bay) – Low volumes of available scrap
Source: Bloomberg
4 000
8 000
12 000
16 000
01.01
.01
30.06
.01
27.12
.01
25.06
.02
22.12
.02
20.06
.03
17.12
.03
11
9 11 12
231 230
297
245
0
70
140
210
280
350
2001 2002 2003E 2004F
Norimet and ExportsSales in Russia2004 Sales/Production Forecast
Nickel Sales
• Production rose to 238,800 tons in 2003, up 19,000 from 2002 level• 70,000* tons delivered to the market from inventory• Sales to Asia rose to 25% of overall export sales volume from 12% in 2002• May release additional 15,000 tons out of inventory**
Nickel Sales (In thousand tons)
Note: (*) Including 60 tons pledged against the loan; (**) forecast .
*
15**
12
The Leading Gold Producer
• 100% stake acquired in Russia’s largest gold producer in October 2002 for USD 226 million
• One of the largest gold deposits in Russia - Olimpiadinskoye
ZAO Polyus
OAO Matrosov Mine
OAO Lenzoloto
• A controlling stake of 50.7% acquired in August 2003 for RUR 1,033 million (~USD 34 million)
• Natalkinskoye deposit with proven reserves of 250 tons
• Feasibility Study underway
• 44.9% (58.6% voting) acquired in September 2003 for RUR 4,665 million (~USD 153 million)
• Reserves of 200 tons and resources of 100 tons • “Key” to Sukhoi Log deposit
With current annual production of 1.3 MM ounces, Norilsk Nickel is one the world’s 10 largest gold producers
830 000
32 000
320 000
Norilsk • Gold production as a by-product in the process of Nickel production in Taimyr Peninsula 130 000
2003E Production
13
Acquisition of 20% stake in Gold Fields LtdGold Fields
• The 4-th largest gold producer• Over 4.3 million ounces of attributable annual gold production • 84 million ounces of mineral reserves• Primarily operations in South Africa, Ghana and Australia
Transaction • Norilsk Nickel acquired approximately 98.5 million ordinary shares (20% stake) of Gold
Fields from Anglo American Plc • Total consideration USD 1,160 MM in cash
– USD 400 MM – own cash– USD 800 MM – 6 months unsecured financing provided by Citigroup Global Markets
at Libor plus 1.5%Creating Value
• Consistent with the strategy to increase Norilsk Nickel position in the gold mining industry• Exploratory discussions on a broader alliance between Norilsk Nickel and Gold Fields• Geographical diversification• Attractive valuation – acquired at 7% discount to market price
14
PolyusPolar Division
• Gold has rallied steadily since the beginning of 2001, settling at the current level of above $400/tr.oz.
• Dollar weakening and risk aversion among investors and speculators are the key drivers
• Mine gold supply is likely to fall in the near term due to declining grades
• Liberalization of the Chinese gold sector is likely to result in long-term demand growth from this potentially important consuming nation
Gold Market
Gold Price & NN Group Production (USD per ounce(lhs); in millions of ounces(rhs))
Source: Bloomberg
250
300
350
400
450
01.01
.01
30.06
.01
27.12
.01
25.06
.02
22.12
.02
20.06
.03
17.12
.03
129134
130
830
0
400
800
1 200
1 600
128
2001 2002 2003*
Note: (*) Excluding Lenzoloto and Matrosov Mine
15
Further Development of Gold Business
• Acquisition of the mining rights for the Sukhoy Log deposit (reserves of 33MM ounces) would increase annual production by a further 0.9MM
• In December 2003 Polyus won the rights for geological survey and development of the Titimukhta gold field (reserves of 0.6MM ounces)
• Continuing geological exploration in existing mining areas
• Exploratory discussions with Gold Fields on a broader alliance
Largest Gold Producers (in millions of ounces, proforma for NN)
Source: Company reports
8.9
7 6.7 6.4
4.63.6 3.5
1.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
Newmon
t
AngloG
old
Barrick
Gold Fiel
ds
Placer
Dome
Harmon
y Gold
Rio Tint
o
Norilsk
Nick
el
16
• Payout of interim dividends
• Russian Parliament and President signed amendments to the law lifting the secrecy regime from
PGM production and reserves data
• Election of further independent directors to the Board
• Awards and Recognitions• Standard & Poor’s: improvement to 5th position in 2003 from 13th in 2002 in the Russian transparency and
disclosure survey of Russia’s 45 largest companies– Survey based on three blocks of criteria:
– Ownership structure and investor relations– Financial and operational information– Board and management structure and processes
• RTS and “Securities Market” magazine: Winner of the nomination for best annual report and #1 in “best information disclosure” in the sixth annual reports and websites contest featuring 85 Russian leading companies (December 2003)
• Investors Protection Association of Russia: most significant improvement in corporate governance (2002)• Euromoney: Norilsk Nickel named “a leading company in Russia for corporate governance” in 2002
Corporate Governance Achievements
17
• Transparency – Publish base metal reserves audit in accordance with international standards
(Q1, 2004)– Publish PGMs production and complete PGMs reserves audit (Q4, 2004)
• Distribution – Further increase long-term contracts and share of direct sales to end-users – Enter into long-term agreements with major car producers
• Improve financial management – Continue reducing labor costs by reducing number of employees– Cut social costs
2004 Objectives
18
• Optimize production– Implement development strategy released in 1Q 2003– Finalize renovation of flash smelters at Nadezhda to increase efficiency and
capacity (to increase recovery rate and cut costs of production)– Research collective flotation and high-grade matte leach refining technologies – Put Pelyatka natural gas field into operation as a major step towards implementing
the long-term energy strategy
• Corporate Development – Evaluate domestic opportunities in gold and titanium– Consolidate gold assets into one company– Exploit opportunities in the restructuring of Russia’s power sector – Evaluate further opportunities
2004 Objectives (continued)
19
The Leading Mining Company Norilsk Nickel shares are traded on:
RTS (GMKN$ RU) and MICEX (GMKN4(5) RM) in Moscow ADRs in New York (NILSY US), London (MNOD LI) and Berlin (NNIA GR)
Norilsk Nickel Share Price Performance vs. Mining Indexes (in US dollars for NN; indexes adjusted to NN share price)
Source: Bloomberg
10.00
25.00
40.00
55.00
70.00
01.01.20
02
01.04.2002
01.07.20
02
01.10.2002
01.01.2003
01.04.20
03
01.07.20
03
01.10.2003
01.01.2004
01.04.2004
Norilsk Nickel in RTSMSCI - World Met & MinHSBC Global Mining 100HSBC Global NickelHSBC Global Platinum