leading into the third industrial revolution
DESCRIPTION
My keynote presentation at the NEMO 14 (New Media Modern Democracy) "Meet the Digital Naturals" Conference at Lund University Campus Helsingborg in October 2014. http://nemo.blogg.lu.se/594/TRANSCRIPT
Leading into the 3rd Industrial RevolutionExploring the future of value creation
Dr. Robin Teigland Karinda Rhode in SLStockholm School of Economicswww.knowledgenetworking.orgwww.slideshare.net/eteigland
@RobinTeigland
October 2014www.hhs.se
Who am I? (LinkedIn Inmaps)
SSE
Exec Ed
Swedish IndustryResearch
Wharton
Stanford
McKinsey
vonorange.com
Then…
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
…Now
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
History tends to repeat itself….Innovation, financial crisis, industrial revolution,
…
Steam engine
Internal combustion
engine
Microelectronics
Late 18th C Late 19th C Late 20th C
Schön 2008
Third industrial revolution?
Valuecreation
People• “Net generation”• 24x7 “mobile”
workforce• Knowledge via MOOCs• Sharing not consuming• Sustainability
Technology • Broadband access• The Cloud• Mobile phones• Internet of Things • Big Data• 3D printing• Robotics/AI• VR/AR
Open Source
• Software • Hardware• Physibles
Convergence of…..
Finance•
Microlending/microfinance
• Crowdfunding/equity/P2P
• Non-fiat cryptocurrencies
• Mobile money/payments
No one knows everything, everyone knows something,
all knowledge resides in humanity.
networks.
Adapted from Lévy 1997
Six degrees of separation
- Milgram, 1967
What’s happening today?24x7 Global Internet Collaboration + Open Source + 3D
Printing
http://mashable.com/2013/02/13/robohand/
$60,000
$150
Available for free download on
Where is the
firm?
Bitcoin = The power of community + open source + internet + CPU
• Developed by self-organizing community of thousands of “strangers” across globe
• Not one but many motivations (intrinsic, extrinsic)• 91 bln SEK in circulation vs SEK 36 bln of Bitcoin in
five years• Approx USD 5 bln in circulation (Oct 2014) and 70,000
daily transactions
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2263707
”Bitcoin has made me interested in issues like finance and money – things that I never thought about before. Now I am really curious and questioning why things are the way they are in the finance
world….and wondering what can I do to change them.”
- Bitcoin 2014 Conference Attendee
Rise of local currencies
The genie is out of the bottle….
Launched June 2010
USD 17 bln valuation
43 countries globally
Limited physical assets
UberPop, Uber Rush, ??
UberGlobal platform for local community
collaboration
IoT + Smartphones + Bitcoin protocol = ?
IoT connecting everything
Android smartphones <USD
50
Bitcoin protocol enabling global
property transfers
If the rate of change on the outside (of an organization) exceeds the rate of change
on the inside, the end is near....
-Jack Welch
Many are stuck in our old ways …
Increasing pace of change
From 1920s to 2010s−Average lifespan of S&P 500 company fell from
67 years to 15 yearsFrom 2000 to 2010
−40% of companies on Fortune 500 list replacedPredictions
−In next few years, 70% of Fortune 1000 companies to be replaced
−By 2020, >75% of S&P 500 companies do not exist today
−By 2025, >45% of Fortune 500 companies to be from emerging markets
Fast Company, McKinsey & Inc
In just a few years in Sweden alone…
Company Founded Business
Klarna 2005 E-commerce payment services
MyLoan 2006 Loan broker
Trustly 2008 Online payments
TrustBuddy 2009 P2P lending
iZettle 2010 Mobile payments
FundedByMe
2011 Crowdfunding, crowd equity
Kivra 2011 Digital mailbox
Tink 2012 Personal finance
Safello 2013 Cryptocurrency exchange
KnCMiner 2013 Cryptocurrency mining equipment
Toborrow 2013 P2P lending for companies
http://techcrunch.com/2014/09/04/kncminer-raises-14-million-to-take-bitcoin-mining-to-the-moon/
Banks’ share of wallet is rapidly shrinking
Nordic BanksPay, Save,
Lend, Insure
Nordic Entrepreneurs
International Entrepreneurs
Four forms of crowdfunding
Form Benefits for funders
Donation-based
Donation Intangible benefits.
Reward-based Donation or pre-purchase
Rewards in addition to intangible benefits.
Equity-based Investment
Return on investment if company does well. Rewards sometimes also offered and
intangible benefits may motivate too.
Debt-based LoanRepayment of loan with
interest. Alternatively intangible benefits if loan given interest-free.
Ingram & Teigland 2013
Measuring demand in advance
How big is crowdfunding?
Global crowdfunding almost doubled 2012 to 2013 to USD 5.1 bln
March 2014 Kickstarter passed USD 1 bln in total pledges
FundedByMe raised USD 10.5 mln to dateSwedish market to be SEK 100 mln in
2014By 2025 global crowdfunding could reach
USD 90 to 96 bln (1.8 times today’s global VC industry)
Growth potential greatest in emerging markets?USD 50 bln in China by 2025?
Toborrow.se
Democratizing innovation through access to capital?
Women in USA <30% of business owners <15% of angel investors <10% of venture capitalists
But…Women on Kickstarter
35% of project leaders 44% of investors on platform >40% of projects women invested in had
female project leaders
Marom, Robb and Sade 2014
Democratizing innovation through access to capital
Kickstarter• Women 13% more likely to to
meet crowdfunding goals than men
• 67% of women-led technology ventures reached goals vs 30% of male-led ventures
Indiegogo• Women 61% more likely than
men to meet goals • Women account for 41% of
projects that meet goalshttp://online.wsj.com/articles/kickstarter-closes-the-funding-gap-for-women-1407949759
“Made in Africa” 3D printer (Togo)crowdfunded through Ulele
Winner of International Space
Apps Challenge
http://www.engineering.com/3DPrinting/3DPrintingArticles/ArticleID/5712/E-Waste-3D-Printer-to-Mars.aspx
DIY 3D printing becoming more commonplace…
http://openfabpdx.com/fffiddle/
Innovation in automotive design/production
“Local Motors is the place for people to create influential vehicles together.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azCRuwtE_n0
The Firm
The Collective
vs
E.g., Microsoft~ Built by employees within
organizational boundaries
E.g., OpenSimulator~ Built by users and distributed freely regardless of affiliation
Models of Knowledge Creation
Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
OpenSimulator: A value-creation ecosystem
AcademicEntrepreneurHobbyistLarge FirmNon-profitLocal PublicFederal PublicResearch InstSME EmployeePeriphery
Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
USD 5.5mln in development
costs
From the mobility of goods to the mobility of financial capital to …
Teigland, JVWR, 2010
...the “mobility” of labor?
Knowledge becomes quickly outdated
Ray Kurzweil, Singularity Institute
Thomas Jefferson (1816)“Laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human
mind.”
The problem is that the human mind itself can’t keep pace with the advances
that computers are enabling.
http://wadhwa.com/2014/04/15/mit-technology-review-laws-and-ethics-cant-keep-pace-with-technology/
http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2014/09/should-robots-have-their-own-bank-accounts/
Institutions
Emergent Collective vs
E.g., Central Bank~ Long-standing financial
institutions and regulations
E.g., Bitcoin Community ~ Emergent collective of users across globe connected through internet
Challenges to institutions?
Teigland, Yetis, Larsson, 2013http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?
abstract_id=2263707
Some questions…
What basic assumptions about value creation will no longer hold?
What opportunities are there related to the future of money, collaborative innovation, and the sharing economy?
What strategic challenges are there within the nearest 2-3 years in connection with the future of money, collaborative innovation, and the sharing economy?
What will you do tomorrow as a result of today’s discussion?
The future is already here, it’s just not very
evenly distributed.
- William Gibson
Robin [email protected]
www.knowledgenetworking.org
www.slideshare.net/eteigland
www.nordicworlds.net @RobinTeigland
If you love knowledge, set it
free…
If you like this presentation and would like to contribute to our research, we accept bitcoins: 14hs4JbnQLXE87GGzu84uXGaspmxmnLpwC.Thank you!!!!!