Lead to Win

Technology and SME business opportunities in the green space through communications enabled applications (CEA)

Web services + Cloud Computing + Mobile Handoff + Green Nodes  Bill St. Arnaud

Bill.st.arnaud@gmail.com

Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author

Lead to Win

Lead to Win

Global Average Temperature

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2009 second warmest year ever

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Jan, Feb Mar 2010 warmest ever

This is despite a solar sun spot minimum

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Climate Forecasts

MIT

> MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2°C– 11°C increase in Northern Canada

& Europe– http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/a

bstract.php?publication_id=990

> Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6°C cooler than today– Most of Canada & Europe was

under 2-3 km ice– With BAU we are talking about 5-

6°C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years

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Climate Change is not reversible

• Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed

• GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate

• Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions All we hope to achieve

is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change

Weaver et al., GRL (2007)

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Climate tipping points

• USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating.

• Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science

– “Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “

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2009-10 Canada winter 4.2C warmer than average

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Urgency of Action

• “We’re uncertain about the magnitude of climate change, which is inevitable, because we’re talking about reaching levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere not seen in millions of years.

• You might think that this uncertainty weakens the case for action, but it actually strengthens it.

• This risk of catastrophe, rather than the details of cost-benefit calculations, makes the most powerful case for strong climate policy.

• Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are just too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios. It would be irresponsible — it’s tempting to say criminally irresponsible — not to step back from what could all too easily turn out to be the edge of a cliff.”

Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/magazine/11Economy-t.html?pagewanted=1

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The Global ICT Carbon Footprint isRoughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today

www.smart2020.org

But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually!

ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption

Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US (http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724)

Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf

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The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector

www.smart2020.org

The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020

PCs Are Biggest Problem

Data Centers & Clouds Are Low Hanging Fruit

Telecom & Internet fastest growing

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IT biggest power draw

Heating,CoolingandVentilation40-50%

Heating,CoolingandVentilation40-50%

Lighting11%Lighting11%

IT Equipment 30-40%

IT Equipment 30-40%

Other6%Other6%

Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006

Energy Consumption World Wide

Transportation25%

Transportation25%

Manufacturing25%

Manufacturing25%

Buildings50%Buildings50%

Energy Consumption Typical Building

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Digital vs Traditional appliances

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Growth Projections Data Centers & Clouds

• Greenpeace says that the energy consumption of cloud computing in 2007 was 622.6 billion kWh, which is 1.3 times larger than reported by the Smart 2020 report.

• 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;*

• By 2010, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.*

• Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom)

Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge

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CEA Enabling Effect is Significant

• Can deliver carbon emission reductions five times size of sector’s own footprint by 2020

– 7.8 Giga-tons carbon dioxide equivalent

– Greater than US or China’s current annual emissions

• Key sectors include Transportation, Buildings, Industrial Processes, and Power

• No other sector can achieve this enabler effect !!

Source: SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age, 2008

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Canada’s CEA enabler effect

•ICT sector contributes one megatonne of GHG emissions or < 1% of Canada’s total

•Enabling effect estimated at between 19.1 – 36 MT of CO2e

•Telework, Car pools, Transportation logistics, Virtual Meetings, Smart Buildings & e-commerce

•Estimated financial benefit between $7.5 billion – $12.9 billion

Source: Industry Canada

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The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency

• Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes

• But growth in ICT deployment of equipment and services is outstripping any gains made in efficiency

– Which is likely to accelerate as ICT is used to support abatement in other fields such as smart homes, smart buildings, smart grids etc

• Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand

– Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox - not to be confused with rebound effect)

– In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances

– Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliances

– Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances

• The issue is not the amount of energy that we use, but the type of energy

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Zero Carbon strategy essential

• Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastrophe

• With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for ICT services will not effect GHG emissions– Anything times zero is always zero

• Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy– Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy– http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-solar-baseloa

d-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/

• But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load– http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/pdf/renewable_transmission.p

df

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Get off the Grid!

• Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses–Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically–Ontario energy costs to go up 30% because of Feed In tariffs

• ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES–-Cooling also a major problem in cities

• But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid.

– Can be easily reached by an optical network– Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power– Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site

• ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites– Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe

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UBC Greenhouse Gas Liability 2010-2012

2010 2011 2012

Carbon Offset $1,602,750 $1,602,750 $1,602,750

Carbon Tax $1,179,940 $1,474,925 $1,769,910

Total $2,782,690 $3,077,675 $3,372,660

SOURCE: UBC Sustainability Office, August 2009

SOURCE: http://climateaction.ubc.ca/category/emission-sources

SOURCE: UBC Climate Action Plan, GHG 2006 Inventory

Carbon Costs for the University of British Columbia

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Zero Carbon Data Center

source: Dan GillardBCnet 04/09

BC’s Green Data Centre MUST be in Proximity to a Clean Source of Power

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MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA

• The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cisco Systems, the University of Massachusetts and EMC.

• It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke

– http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/cisco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center

–

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Grand Challenge – Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only

• 30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources

• How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable?

– Ebbing wind or setting sun

• Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks

• Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power

– Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site

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Power Consumption of IP network

Source: Rod Tucker

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GreenStar –Clouds and Virtualization

Sandbox for developing “green” communications enabled applications, such as clouds, Web services, virtualization, dematerialization, sensors, etc.

Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost power by “following wind & sun” networks.

Develop benchmarking tools to earn CO2 offset dollars for university and ICT department

http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/

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GreenStar Network

• World’s first zero carbon network

• Nodes in Ireland, USA Spain and Belgium to be added shortly

• http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/

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Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures

• Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers– http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf

– Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green data centers at only a 3% cost increase

• Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems– Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time of the

day and energy prices are low

– Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices

– 45% maximum savings in energy costs

– http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf

– http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-energy-prices-to-save-millions/

• Computing for the future of the planet– http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/~ah12/

– http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/25/data-centers-will-follow-the-sun-and-chase-the-wind

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Evolving Internet & Impact on GHG

• Van Jacobson predicted several years ago evolution away from “end-to-end” Internet to information Internet

– http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6972678839686672840#

• Current Internet is based on old telco architecture of connecting users

• New Internet is based on connecting users to information

• Arbor study has vindicated Van Jacobson prediction– C. Labovitz, et al  "ATLAS Internet Observatory 2009 Annual Report"

http://www.nanog.org/meetings/nanog47/presentations/Monday/Labovitz_ObserveReport_N47_Mon.pdf

– Over 50% of Internet traffic is from handful of information suppliers such as Google, Akamai, Content Distribution networks etc

• Will have major impact on wireless networks as we move from “end to end” cell phone network to cell phone Internet

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Traditional Internet

Backbone ISP1

Backbone ISP 3

Backbone ISP 2

IXIX

RegionalISP

Large ContentProvider with multiple servers

Small ContentProvider

Last mile ISP

Last mile ISP

User’s Computer

User’s Computer

Thousands of miles

Fiber Networks

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Information Internet – zero carbon

Backbone ISP1

Backbone ISP 3

Backbone ISP 2

IX IX

RegionalISP

Large ContentProvider

Small ContentProvider

Last mile ISP

Last mile ISP

User’s Computer

User’s Computer CloudCDNContent

hosted CEA

Nearby

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New Internet

• Increasingly most connections will be local to nearest IX where user will connect to cloud, CDN or social network

– Connections to another user or computer at the edge of the cloud will be less common

• Network topologies and architectures will be driven by communications enabled applications (CEA) rather than connecting users “end-to-end”

• Future wireless networks are likely to also evolve in this manner– Don’t need an end to end network for accessing applications and content– User white space and wifi to provide data to cell phones– Next network neutrality battleground will be “last inch” – open devices and “last

tower” - • Much easier to deploy zero carbon Internet

– CDN, clouds and social network infrastructure can be built along GSN model– Users will increasingly use solar powered iPhone, iPad to access information and

applications

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Mobile data traffic growth

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Building a “5G” wireless network

• Over 100,000 cell phone towers to be powered by renewable energy by 2012

• Vertical axis turbines and solar

• Ericsson (Montreal) world leader in these developments

• Existing 3G and 4G networks cannot handle data load

• Need to offload data at nearest node or tower

• New Wifi standards 802.11u allow for data handoff from 3G networks

• WiFi nodes can be powered by renewable sources such as roof top solar panel over 400Hz power systems or ethernet power

• Cell phones also become sensors

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Possible Architectures

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Impact of 5G networks and CEA

• The PC is out of the loop

• The phone is a sensor platform

– Hardware add-on innovation

– Location based sensing

– Touch screen UI

• Processing is done in real time in the cloud

– Allowing processing that can’t be done on the device

– Big data analysis

• Building new networks on the back of existing ones

• Reinventing a major industry

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Source: Tim OReilly

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Sensors using social tools

• Tweet-a-watt

• http://www.ladyada.net/make/tweetawatt/index.html

• Neptune and many large sensor networks are representing sensor as web services

• Need new routing and discovery protocols based on social networking tools

• UI on the web

• Phone as the sensor platform – processing in the clouds

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Open source sensors

38Source: Tim OReilly

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Open Source Hardware

39Source: Tim OReilly

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Sensors + Cloud

40Source: Tim OReilly

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Cap and reward – “gCommerce”

• Although carbon taxes or cap and trade are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit– No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint

• Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions?

• Carbon rewards can be CEA products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collaborative education and research technologies etc

• Carbon reward can also be free CEA services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc

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Virtualization and De-materialization

Source: European Commission Joint Research Centre, “The Future Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability”, August 2004

Direct replacement of physical goods – 10% - 20% impact

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Case Western pilot with Kindle DX

• One pound of printer paper generates 4 pounds of CO2

• One pound of newspaper produces 3 pounds of CO2

• One pound of textbooks produces 5 pounds of CO2

• Babcock school of Management textbooks for 160 students alone produces 45 Tons CO2

– http://www.stewartmarion.com/carbon-footprint/html/carbon-footprint-stuff.html

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Virtualization is key

• Movies and music delivered over Internet

• Virtual applications – Google docs, ESERI

• In many homes electronic devices consume more power than traditional appliances

– http://www.iea.org/journalists/headlines.asp

MIT’s Sixth sense

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Free Wifi on Buses

• There’s a school bus service called The Green Bus in Birmingham, UK which operates double-decker, low-carbon emissions buses that carry over 1400 kids to school every day (saving over 2000 car journeys).

• In addition to encouraging kids to play peer-to-peer games, the access points allow the bus company to monitor where the buses are in the city in real time. Parents as well as staff can follow the progress of any bus via Google maps.

• Business bus service in San Francisco offers office on the move – free wifi, femto cell service etc

 

• http://www.muniwireless.com/2009/01/14/school-kids-enjoy-wi-fi-on-green-bus/

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What are carbon offsets?

• Many claims of energy savings can only be proven through rigorous process of carbon offsets (ISO 14064)

• Companies or individuals buy carbon offsets from projects that remove or reduce carbon

– Planting trees, building hydro dams, installing energy efficient processes, etc

• Two types of markets

– Regulated markets – Alberta, BC , Europe and New England

– Voluntary markets – Air Canada, Chicago, etc

– Carbon buying and selling is done through registries or exchanges

• Pacific Carbon Trust, Montreal Carbon exchange, REGI

• In regulated markets all big emitters such as power plants, steel mills, universities, etc must purchase permits based on cap and trade

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The Carbon Economy

• $500 billion - Value of low-carbon energy markets by 2050

• $100 billion - Demand for projects generating GHG missions credits by 2030

• Global carbon market expected to grow 58% this year to $92 billion

• Carbon market could be worth billions for telecoms & IT

– US market estimated at $700 billion

– http://telephonyonline.com/global/news/carbon-trade-arnaud-0626/

• Obama’s cap and trade (Waxman-Markey) bill will force emitters to spend $1.25

on carbon offsets for every $1.00 on emission permits at $ 1billion per year

Source: ClimateCheck

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Carbon Reward Strategy for last mile infrastructure

• Provide free high speed Internet and fiber to the home with resale of electrical and gas power (ESCOs)

– http://www.newamerica.net/files/HomesWithTails_wu_slater.pdf– Pilots in Cleveland, Switzerland, Ottawa, etc

• Customer pays a premium on their gas and electric bill

• Customers encouraged to save money through reduced energy consumption and reduced carbon output

• Customer NOT penalized if they reduce energy consumption– May end up paying substantially less then they do now for gas + electricity +

broadband + telephone + cable

• Network operator gets guaranteed revenue based on energy consumption rather than fickle triple play

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Final remarks

• The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions

• Think carbon, not energy

• We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020

• 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including universities and networks

• Huge potential for innovation and new business opportunities for green communications enabled applications because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources

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Cyber-infrastructure in a Carbon Constrained World

http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ERM0960.pdf

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Let’s Keep The Conversation Going

BlogspotBill St. Arnaud http://green-broadband.blogspot.com

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